tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC September 15, 2017 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT
be able to prepare for these risks? >> i think, okay, let's take the politics out of it i don't -- i don't want to get involved with that what i will say is to any business or any consumer you have to think about weather resiliency, okay how are you going to weather the storm, and what are you going to do after i mean, look, the city of miami, miami beach, has spent millions and millions of dollars a raising street and putting in pumps, whereas tampa has done none of that they dodged a bullet this time they just did a simulation called hurricane phoenix, a direct hill. 2,000 simulated people died. billions of dollars in damage. most of our population lives along the coast. >> yeah. >> al. congratulations on the book, always great to see you. >> let get to the judge and "the half." all right, guys, thank you
welcome to "the halftime report." bull run, more records with the dow looking to post its best week of 2017 with us for the hour today, josh brown, steve-wise, carrie firestone, the ceo of asset manage president and with us from minneapolis today is pete najarian let's begin with stocks, the intraday report high for the dow, s&p and nasdaq. energy is a big story as it puts in its big week since september of 2016. josh, it's been a reflation kind of a week. materials, industrials, financials. >> yeah. >> is this the way it's going to be now >> big week for the qs risk off got killed this week. tlt down 1.7%. gold, gld down 2 bost%, and in meantime you have a huge breakout in semiconductors take a look at the smh this tells you everything you need to know about companies spending money, not just people, but -- but projects and r & d, and we'll get to some of the
bigger winners later on. i just think when you look at the advance and declines, scott, that's what i want people to focus on not just the fact that we're at a new record high. look at the record decline looking at a new high. that's what's key. many, many stocks participating. this is not about f.a.n.g. or about one hot group. >> pete, you took your s&p calls off already. maybe you jumped the gun. >> jon put them on though, so it's okay. >> last friday we talked about that, you know, during the show, and we talked about the massive call buying we saw in there, scott. 141,000 of those calls those were september calls they were buying. they were 2.49s and paying 20 cents. a nice hit it was fantastic loved it i mean, in and around the 22-cent area, out on average around $1. i'm okay with that it doesn't mean i'm bearish whatsoever that was as far out as they were willing to go so i'm not going to hold it any further than that plus, it just seems like it's time to take that off and look
elsewhere as other flows continue to come in. josh brings up a really good point though these semis have been under fire how many times have we talked about micron, nvidia and intel last week. it just continues to come in and people want to shoot against that, but reality has been josh is right they want tospend money, and they are spending money and it's proven by what we're seeing. valuations remain low and great dividend yields in many cases and there's growth in the semis, and we know how much demand is out there for chp and this is a segment that's kicking this market into high gear. >> steve, do you want to tell me what upsets this market? >> only derailing the earnings recovery or a more rapid rate increase than what is assumed, and right now it's assumed maybe they go in december or not this year if you see the economy slowing down, not numbers we saw today which were a function.
hurricane. if you see the global synchronized lift start to slow down. >> we won't see that because it's just is that righted so even though we're in one largest economic sakele, that's really meaning until because you've never had free money for such a lock period of time i hold a healthy level of cash, an i have been putting it together back in the markets but i think you have to look when you look at my portfolio, what's the beta which means like what's my risk overall and what's my volatility and that exceeds what it normally would locking at just my cash. by that i mean baba, tableau names like that. steve liesman just joined our table. is the fed going to screw this up, because, i mean, that's about the only thing that can possibly happen is that they raise rates too fast. >> when hi listened carefully to what steve said, that's exactly how you summarized it, what's unexpected, and i think that
kwhaurter point is about a 50-50 probability. one of the things that's happened in the last couple of days, you talked about the reflation trade at the top and the commodities. had the market come back in terms of yields and probabilities. the probability of that rate hike in december was below 3%. >> we moved is a basis points or something like that in a week. >> good long way. >> the conversation was, okay. looks like we're going mow two and then what happens to the some, and now we're at 2.to and the rally hats resumed >> did you play basketball in high school or college >> i did, too, believe it or not and i wasn't very good at it when you knows a guy goes left -- >> i did play basketball the pot calling the kettle
small. >> let say you don't know where the guy is going you play them dead center. what's happening now with the guessing and the estimating of the forecast and the fed is we're moving back to the center, back to a 50-poo probability there's all kinds of stuff between now and the december meeting. there's data from the hurricane that's going to really mess with the data it's going to go down. >> already did. >> had some lousy data, some of it, not all of it hurricane-related, especially in the industrial production, a bit in the retail. you're going to have three more inflation reports. we know yellen and members of the fed want to do this but they won't do it in a reckless manner this is not a bet that will happen but a move back towards the center of the 50-50 probability range which is why which ear at 40 now. getting close. >> what about the rotation into some of the areas steve talked about, energy, best in a year, industrials, materials, some of these other so-called reflationries of the market?
>> one factor that's very important is that the dollar has weakened and when people put forth their simts, they did not had a weakening dollar they had a dollar that would strengthen because donald trump trade and now you have benefit from the globalization and fact that gdp growth worldwide has been picking up you're starting to see those industries that are multi-national-based start to show some interest, investors showing interest in materials and industrials and energy of course, there's some -- >> and they look cheaper sole them stockpile that. take a look at the stockpile to me the energy trade is a trade, that the dynamics haven't changed at all so i would give up on it. >> if you look at what sectors perform best after hurricanes, not that we're all looking at that, but if we were to, it's
construction first and the next is mining materials and some of the heavy industrials. >> you're going to get a little inflationary impulse, maybe a somewhat large one comes from the rebuilding effort. it's going to come, by the way, and will help out some workers, by the way, because of the construction business has a shortage of workers already before the storm the lumber prices as well as gas and energy prices. >> wasn't there something this week that the fed had lost credibility on inflation did i read that? >> there was an article talking about the fed losing credibility. the potential it loses credibility by changing its inflation target and talking about it i thought he was over the top. as much as i admire greg in terms of saying this is a nightmare for yellen at the end of the day there's low unemployment and low inflation, and i think there are things that are nightmares out there, but the combination of those two is not a nightmare to me. >> i bring that up because the fed doesn't seem to -- pardon my
expression -- have a clue when it comes to forecasting either the economy or inflation, and i just wonder if that results in a potential error that upsets the market >> i think that's true on inflation. i don't think it's quite as true on the economy i think the fed has done okay in terms of getting the economy going. the inflation numbers are a weird thing and the fed believes it has the power to affect inflation, and that influences its own forecast if you think i'm going to be able to do this, then i'm going to forecast and that's going to happen, and the fed has been unable to do that an that's upset the market, but in terms of where you're going to miss, scott, they are missing low and that's okay with the market, especially because you're getting earnings if you were missing low and also not getting earnings, and by the way gdp numbers running above trend so that's okay and the idea we'll be a little bit lower because of the hurricanes, so far the market has kind of cooled with that. >> i don't think the bond market
has anything really substantial to do with the economy going down to basically a 2 yield on the 10 that was purely the fear fact from the first north korea firing over japan and their other tests. >> that was -- >> it was trump and other concerns. >> but the other thing is that the fed is likely -- even if it's 50-50 if they do raise. >> yeah. >> they are probably not going to do it real soon because the hurricane impact on the data you'll want to see and we could get earnings for december. >> the market is trading much more on 18 they may do it, may not. what they have been real focused on is the notion of where the fed stops. that's come down from 3% to maybe 2% and that's created an outlook for rates even longer. >> my guess is, pete, that you've got three months to then potentially be in an environment
where "x" something we don't know of or see or plea dict, what takes stocks lower between now and the end of the year? >> well, i mean, you know, the constant news flows. we've seen this rotation, scott, and time and time again we have this rotation from one sector to the other. seems like it's faster and faster, but, i mean, to your point, what takes us down? >> i guess if the fed is the only ones that can do it and the fed is not going to do their move until december, if the a you will a and earnings in october that people expect to be pretty good. >> that could take them down if the earnings don't come out. as expected. >> i don't know if that's a likely scenario. >> can i make a point for the majority of people we can stitt here and come up with a list of things that could happen or we could focus on the big picture. and when you do that you're long the market ten straight months of closing higher prices in the s&p we've not been within 300% of
the 200-day moving average that's very rare and never happens and certainly never happens outside of long sustainable markets, so could it end? will it end? what is the thing? is it yellen is it donald trump is it korea? such a waste of time so much money is being made. all you have to do is figure out how much to have at risk and where you want to put your stops if you're more tactical and what opportunities you're developing beneath the surface it, either on a sector or individual name level? but this why the that we're going to put together a list every week and say, all right, this is the next thing to worry about it it hasn't happened the only probably is it felt like there was a shift in momentum. >> no, it didn't. >> yes, it did. >> ilalmost never repeat myself but i like you guys. >> we've not been within 3% of the 200-day moving average. >> we've had hours and hours of
video to dispel that. >> to dispel what? >> there are always people who want to say oh, the sky is falling. all you need is a day where the dow is off 100 points and people start talking. >> hold mon. >> 100 points on 22,000. >> to me, just when the moment is hitting records is the very primetime to sit there and think about what could go wrong. >> i didn't say -- >> i didn't say don't think about what could go wrong. >> think about the totality of the. >> can i throw something out to you. if you take a look at the last three years and you say what were the things that did cause a break in the market? not one of them was on the marker the more we think about these things actually the better it is because these are the things we're building up a tolerance to when we had that 16% selloff in the s&p in the fall of '15 it was because of an overnight yuan
fix in china. >> that's not at news flash, josh i agree and the way you're positioning it is right but the point to focus on is decide what to put at risk >> i said that h.100%. >> i'm agreeing with you, but i don't think you buy markets. that's where i disagree. i'm a fundamental -- >> it's been going on for 100 years. >> buying stocks. >> and now, by the way, you have -- >> it's average buying markets buying stocks that outperform -- >> can i give you a rare peeves liesman investment advice, never almost do that. >> for good reason. >> i don't know much about it. >> about a month ago i recently sold some stock. why? because i had an agreed percentage of stock and bonds and fixed income in my portfolio. >> it rebalanced. >> you rebalanced. >> oh, my god. it was a totally dispassionate i don't know if the market is too high, but what i did is i go back to a decision that i made a couple years ago about a split
and i really like doing it for that reason. >> you know what's funny about that >> that's the way you average money. that's what everyone in america is doing automatically and each time they do it the headlines coming from lippur and trim tabs is americans are selling stocks. no, americans are making so%, 11% annualized over the last several years. >> i really like decisions made on that basis to go back and say maybe i want to change my allocation somehow some way and if that's the decision i made i'm sticking to it and it's kind of like an antiseptic idea. >> the big factor that moves the market is when people move in cash there's still a lot of people who have 50% cash, 40% cash. >> you still have a lot of cash? >> and people at some point say we're not going to wait any longer for market to fall and put it to work. >> so if you -- aren't you somewhat hesitant to put money in the market where it is? >> that's why you is there more
cash than others would like. >> first of all, there's an issue which is unique to me which is i ran are a strategy and i keep that. so that expands my cash level will. >> it's not representative of how you feel where you are >> i continue to look for opportunities. it was a great thing buying baba when it got hit, buying apple when it got hit. i did that the week the market sold off sole that's what i prefer to do the airlines, you know, i'm waiting a little bit they really didn't trade down. this downgrade by a good analyst. maybe it's getting close. >> pete, did you want to the jump in? >> i was just going to jump in and i would love to give weis a little bit of financial advice you obviously want cash and when you have a vix that's trading so and absolutely aplimable to the market and world in front of us right now. hurricanes come in, right. when you get harvey and irma and
all of a sudden you've got jose then all of a sudden those premiums go up to protect yourself what you want to do is look at at vix trading at 10 and there's no sign of a-hour cahn josh was talking about there's nothing out there that you can't trade off of the fact that they will do this and that. the reality is you can buy stuff and be in various parts of the marketplace and put that capital to work and protect it there's times that i've gotten cash as well i'm not waiting for huge pullbacks. >> you own pfizer and merck and these other things. >> i do. >> that's great. >> if i'm owning a stock with very high beta, that's equivalent to taking whatever -- make a number, quadruple what your position is in pfizer, okay boston because it's riskier on the downside and can move higher on the upside. the other thing i'm looking at is the strategy i run.
it's only for credited investors, let's get that out there. i've got to wait and be optimistic to put money into that strategy, okay, and that's just a different kind of thing. >> what's your minimum, can i get in the >> 5 million. >> should i come back to you in a few years. >> the world you're in not necessarily everyone who is watching this showers, people out there are saying, well, gosh, if i've got an extra 25% cash, does it is make any sense to put the money in the market is what we're seeing is earnings are remaining strong that we don't see a recession immediately and interest rates are remaining low and if you have no options because you're not going to make money in bonds and you do earn money with the stock earnings and dividends, it's not a bad trade right here. >> and i'm -- i'm never going to apologize for keeping cash. >> hold on. >> let him finish. >> i'll never apologize for keeping cash in my portfolio and for being opportunistic. sure, we hear howard marks hand
his time he's been off and a trem dowels investor and we hear rayolio and others and we come here and here and pedal to the metal. >> i know this is banal. pick up allocations things and put money away every roy and don't be deterred by the ups and downs here and these are five and ten-year things. the majority of folks are doing it that way and maybe take a pot of money and play with it it the way weis does and for the main strategy it's an allocation and every month you put the money in. >> only if -- what inning of the bull market do you think that we're in if you're think we're in the bottom of the eighth, that -- that may not be the best strategy right now, right? i mean, if you think we're in inning six or seven.
>> i don't think it's baseball it's not a game, man it's my life it's my retirement. >> my point is don't -- >> i can't make the game analogy. >> if i'm in a long game, i think stocks go up over the long haul i cannot time because i can have somebody smart like steve tell me when to get in. >> but i'm not doing that. >> but i need somebody like him to tell me when to get out it's worked very well through '08. i didn't make a change and kept doing what i was doing i wasn't heavy in nasdaq in 2000 and it comes back. >> hold on. >> stick to the plan. >> so what you're saying is what most people are doing, that's number one number two, anyone with a financial advisers who is has more than ten years before they are use the money is not 25 boston 25% in cash and number three, what you're doing right now is real el easy because bonds are working and so are stocks. we'll gallon through a sustained period of time where one, the other or possibly both for a sustained period of time, every time you open your statement,
you pop that pdf open you're negative and three months, all right i'll stay the course, five months, seven months, whoa, whoa, whoa what's going on? i've just the equivalent of two years worth of my income that i've sieved. i'm now in a drawdown. that's when is it gets harder. >> liesman thanks. >> all right, steve liesman. another big story we're following this hour is jose. the storm developing and pointing towards new york city the weather company dan leonard tracks it for us. >> good morning. looks like jose right now is a strong tropical storm. it's sort of stationary down south of bermuda and it's going to move northwest and that's significant, number up, because it's moving closer to the u.s. and number two it's about to go over the gulf stream and that will allow it to get more in, a lot of juice and heat energy in the gulf stream water so as it
moves over the gump stream expect rapid intensification at least to a category 1 or possibly a category 2 this weekend so the important question obviously is where does it is go from here our best guess, our best line of thinking right now it makes landfall or stays just off the new england coast early next week probably tuesday or wednesday, but, of course, remember, the strongest part of the hurricane is on the eastern part of the storm, so if the hurricane makes landfall in southeastern, mass mass, you might be talking about a hurricane bob situation with damage in the billions of dollars versus a track just offshore and then you're that you canning more like a hurricane edward where you keep most of the damage or strongest winds offshore and it's only a few million worth of damming, but i will say one thing and one good news piece of information about this storm remember for the big new england/new york type storms
clima climaticalogically speaking, once you get north of north carolina, waters are much cooler up near new england. a storm is more likely to weaken when it gets closer to new england compared to the 1968 hurricane when it was moving 68 miles per hour from the bermuda to new england, that's why is there was so much intense damage a slow moving storm comes in on new england and the damage wouldn't be as bad as say if it was a fast moving hurricane. right now we're watching it five days away. anywhere from new jersey up through new england has to keep a close eye on this because it does have the potential to make an impact, especially tuesday and wednesday of next week. >> we certainly are. dap, thanks so much. have a good weekend. we'll see you soon dan leonard, weather company here's what else is coming up on "the halftime report." >> the chips are surging up big this week should you buy in, or did you miss the move? plus, our call of the day. wait until you get the new top
price target on nvidia if you want to own a f.a.n.g. name -- >> it's basically in my opinion a proxy for global consumption and a proxy for gdp and as a result it's probably the most unconstrained market that it's operating with. >> what stock? find out next. before the break, billionaire hedge fund manager ray dalio's prediction at cnbc's delivering alpha this week. >> i think what's going to happen will probably be a watered down version of what was anticipated to happen so, for example, corporate tax rate. i think it will probably come later. i don't know exactly when it will come but maybe the end of this quarter. >> right. >> end of the year, maybe early next year and will have something like a 23% rate. >> now you can listen to the entire discussion between mr. dalio and andrew ross sorkin by heading to deliveringalpha.com. ray dalio is also on "squawk box" tuesday
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>> i don't know if it will get there. i hope it does i've been with it since last summer no plans to take it off. one of the interesting things pointed out in in note which was different than what we've heard from a lot of analysts is they want to talk about the software, and i think why that's relevant to today's discussion. this was a silly thing going around where amd and nvidia are only really crypto stocks because people happen to use their gpus in the mining process. crypto has crashed and nvidia is up so bucks this week and had a great week and at an all-time high that's not the story the software platform is $10 bill crop report of r & d has gone into this, and the analysts are pointing out that they essentially have an incredible mode where the entirety of the ai industry is going to standardize on nvidia's protocols and when you have a mode like this and you're
positioned solely in what could be one of the biggest revolutions of human mankind, it's not that this stock can trade at any price but you can understand why people are pouring into it. there aren't other companies that will be as central to the next wave of technology. that's augmented reality, forget it. >> they are building the industry standard for ai. >> right. >> says evercore isi the longer term outlook, pete, are you in this name pete, are you even in this name? >> i was until today, yes. after this pop i decided to get out. i actually had some calls in there. i had some huge call buying on august 30th. when had you read through the note, there's a lot of things that make a lot of sense the biggest problem that people have had with nvidia, trading at 49 times, that's incredibly high, which tis, but it's about what's happening in the future right now everybody is focused on the right thing which is the
data centers and all the rest of t.ai, that's the longer term thing that everybody is focusing on, so there is plenty of growth there, and they have proven that time and time again on their earnings call so kudos to josh for being on this early and sticking with it i'm going to wait for the next opportunity on a pullbackor if i see options come in there again, but when you look at semis in general they have been on absolute fire and the it's not just an apple play it's across the board. demands are high and that's what's really fueling this to the upside across the board micron, qualcomm, you name it. look at the areas. >> qualcomm hasn't done anything qualcomm has been a dog. it hasn't done anything. >> well, it just had that napear, so we'll see if it starts to do something it has been, you're 100% right that has not performed at all. you look at intel. it's been in a very tight range but day after day over the last week and a half or so we've watched intel slowly move up and start to test towards that $37 level which is the higher end for intel, so if it can break
through, we talked about micron at 32.5. now look where it's trading. it's a matter of whether or not intel can break through this sort of ceiling that holds it back. >> i think what's worth pointing out. a lot of the semi names that have large market caps and paid dividends or old line semiconductor companies, not that they are not good companies, it's that they are doing linear processing in a world where the ability to concurrently run multiple pieces of processing on the same chip at the same time is the only thing that's going to matter and that's why i've been focused on nvidia and not involved with the other chip names it's not that other companies can't catch up they will do so piece meal intel is a great example they buy the autonomous car and make a run at the oems and get some contracts and sell some chips. that's not what we're talking about. we're talking about something much bigger and more profound. >> as josh pointed out, the large old line semiconductor
companies are just too tied to the pc they are struggling to find a place where they can grab on to a wave of the future and it's very product driven. used to be semiconductor stocks moved up and down to go. the industry was very price competitive, very cut throat and now you have companies differentiating by the product of their cut america and nvidia has done a great job at that won't be the only ones they could at some point be displaced. >> let's keep in mind that qualcomm was the nvidia of the last generation, right they had the lat form that everybody was on. >> i was thinking of it as we were talking about this about. >> to get back in pete's good graces, i bought micron when it sold off i continued to buy bought in the high 20s and i'm buying it. that's great, and what's different this time and it's never different, i know that, but the capacity has actually tightened throughout various sectors, and we talked about micron and talked about western digital which i think is a buy year because there's no new capacity being create.
sure, it would be better if they get toshiba's unit and if somebody else gets it there's still rational pricers in terms of nvidia, look, i was earlier in it, but i sold it thinking i was a genius and here it doubled and stock made a lot more money in the stock than me. i do think it keeps going but there's a history with these names and the history that the providers who license the technology don't like to be held captive to one company so the standard that's there may exist for a little while but eventually others will be invited in. >> nvidia not the only high-flying tech stock in the nasdaq 100 the f.a.n.g. stocks like netflix, amazon and google are all up double digits year to date we had a member from social capital on and asked him what his number one f.a.n.g. song was, not surprisingly as he said in the past, he said it was amazon. >> let's share what he said and
then we'll come back. >> it's an amazing business in that it's modeling consumption it's trying to give every human on earth and every business on earth everything that they need and in that business it's a proxy for global consumption and a proxy for gdp and as a result it's probably the most unconstrained market that it's operating in. >> that was chamath with us yesterday at the stock exchange. i can't disagree and going back to what liesman said and i own the stock again where it was beaten up, 300 bucks a share and we had looked at it and knew they were going to break out what aws did and what retail did. bought it and sold it way too early. there's no good reason not to own amazon except my discipline doesn't allow me to because they are not concerned with profitability. ultimately i want them to be, particularly in their evolution, so if i violate my discipline for that, why aren't i going to violate for other things
that's the only reason i don't own it phenomenal company. >> you have bought over various periods of time other stocks that would have a high valuation that you bought for a trade. >> you trade biotechs with $500 million market caps, come on they don't earn money. >> first of all, it's in front -- it's not because they don't earn money i said don't earn money at this point in their life cycle. >> it's another kind of discipline. >> amazon does earn money and actually by some cash flow measures they are earning more than every other publicly traded retailer. >> they put it all back into the company. so terrible. >> what i'm saying -- >> have you ever seen a company, a stock this successfully continue to find ways to put it back into a company and come up with 20% revenue growth quarter after quarter. >> you can't be every discipline and biotech is completely different. if i can point to a catalyst for
biotech. >> you have a different discipline for biotech. >> absolutely not true maybe i'm not clear. let me go slow so you understand this hold on a sec. in biotech, why don't we take a look at what we're doing last year we were -- where we bought this company that was in front of an approval from the fda. it was a calculated risk on my part having talked to people no earnings, but guess what? where did that stock go? >> they achieved the catalyst. >> you violated your discipline and made money. >> i didn't violate my discipline everything i say you twist. >> please, let's not do that. >> who is hillary? >> you >> she has locker hair though. >> i'm judgment playing with you. >> one point on amazon. >> take us out of here. >> it's the one thing that should worry everybody and we own it and we're overweight amazon when people say it's going to be everything to everyone, it's
shades of all sorts of dinosaurs of the past who promise that and didn't succeed and so i just -- it just makes me scared. >> up next, unusual activity in the commodity space. what the options market is selling today. we'll talk first solar, carnival and the robotic stocks "halftime report" is back after this what powers the digital world. communication.
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jamie dimon who called bitcoin a fraud and said, quote, it won't end well someone is going to get killed bitcoin is also pressured by bitcoin exchanges and despite the massive drops this week bitcoin is still up about 200% for the year scott, back to you. >> thank you so much josh brown, you want to weigh in on this one? >> yeah, i don't disagree with some of wham jamie said, mr. dimon said i think the icos are mostly frauds the regulators will start to look at those like security offerings without the correct disclosures and registrations and i think a lot of that stuff will get beat up but you can believe that and simultaneously believe that we're going to find serious institutional uses for crypto and just be open-minded i don't think we're at the stage in the game where you can afford to either say this is the future no matter what, or this is garbage that's going to go to zero i think you have to be in the
gray area. join me in the gray area it's nice and warm. >> what do you have on unusual activity today, pete >> you know, scott we were talking about semis earlier, but we've seen a lot of activity in materials and obviously in some of the metals as well. had gld paper and all kinds of different things gdx is standing out for. a week and a half ago, two weeks ago, huge buying out to march of 2018 they went to the march 30 strike in the gdx and bought 15,000 of them today, someone has returned once again, and they are going very aggressively after october obviously that much closer to where we are right now, so is there time for gold to make some sort of a flip it's going to have to. you look at the gdx and they are very aggressively going after the october 26 calls they bought 46,000 of these calls so far today, scott. so like i say, very aggressive and trading only 20, 22 cents, something like that. stocks trading it around the gdx around 24. these are just out of money. i'm in those put me in those today. i like the aggressive buying and
when i looked back and saw some more, it gave me more fuel to the idea that i think gdx is start moving back to the upside. >> gold has been certainly one of the best trades of this year. all right, pete. thank you for that. >> first solar upgraded. >> any time a stock spikes like this it's time to take profits i'm not had a buyer. >> josh, carnival got downgraded at credit suisse, demand for cruises down and hurricanes haven't obviously helped. >> look, this has been a real nice uptrend since last fall like a lot of stocks quite frankly, but this one is now broken that uptrend definitively this is two slices below a flat-lining 50 day, 200 day still rising and risk down to there. call it 59, 60 this is not my cup of tea. it's a broken uptrend. >> pete, what do you do with oracle today given the earnings and then the outlook which seems
to be taking the stock down 7% >> the earnings itself were great and weaker than people expect pld that's where the growth has been that's a problem that's way overdown. 7% to the downside that's done. i'll be staring at this one the rest of the day. buying it today or next week. >> robotics. talking several robotics stock. >> yeah, i think they are interesting. a play on capital good and the industrial pickup globally the ones that we're locking at and i think are interesting. cognex does visual robotics and a s&l a big customer and z brag, which is more mundane and sells at a cheaper multiple and teradyne which we think is an interesting place to be looking. >> and sue herera now with the headlines. >> here's what's happening at this hour, everyone. at the state department,
secretary of state rex tillerson called north korea a global threat that requires a response from the world community he made the remarks after pyongyang fired a second missile over japan late yesterday. >> we continue to build consensus at the united nations security council to create a united international front that upholds our values and strives to make us safer north korea's a global threat and it requires a global response from all nations. >> tropical storm jose just went go away. the latest forecast has that storm which could soon strengthen back into a hurricane heading up a bit nearer to the east coast the latest forecast map by the national hurricane center puts new york and new jersey for the first time in the distant falconbridge fringe of its so-called hurricane cone and president trump welcoming 11-year-old frank giasasso who wrote the president
and helps him couple the white house lawn runs his own neighborhood business apparently. frank was so focused on hit duesies he didn't notice that the president emerged to greet him. the president calling him the future of the company and he did a really nice job on the lawn, too. >> ty is here with what is coming up on "power lunch." >> that's exactly how some of us started making money, sue, though hardly on the white house lawn coming up on "power lunch," hope you'll join us, breaking news at the top of the hour. the national security adviser general mcmaster and the u.s. ambassador to the united nations nikki haley will speak on the north korea missile launch and ratings fumble, not just the nfl, sports viewership down across the board what's wrong with sports, and the noise it is growing louder and louder to regulate facebook and google we'll tell you why and debate what it could mean "the halftime report" returns right after this
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amazon, google, the f.a.n.g. stocks the tech titans leading the sector and markets higher. all four are up 20% or more year to date compared to the s&p 500 up 12% and looking ahead to the fourth quarter wondering if the fang stocks can continue to deliver outsize returns. however, if history is any indication, these stocks will get a nice pop in q4 we crunched the numbers with our partners at kensho, and take a look at the fang stocks in the final quarter over the past five years. netflix posts an average return of 16% in the fourth quarter amazon about 8% average returns. facebook up nearly 7% on average. and alphabet with an average return of 5% in q4 all outparticipation the s&p, typically posting 4 1/2% returns. and far above apple, the biggest tech company of them all, at just half a percent. scott, back over to you. >> all right, landon, thank you so much. both gold and silver are down
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the weaker dollar and by the way those reports out of north korea? >> i am almost surprised, courtney let's remember year to date gold is up nearly 15% still beating the s&p 500. but i think gold as well as silver the trajectory is higher as we're still not done with north korea. >> down about three bucks. anthony grasante, what can we expect from the metals heading into next week >> i think the hedge funds are about to be squeezed on their long positions in gold and silver right now they're extremely long we have support in gold at 13.14. silver 1747. we start breaking through those i think the selling is accelerated. >> gres says hedge funds watch out. for more futures he head to futuresnow.cnbc.com. the "halftime report" back after this this is where i trade andrs. manage my portfolio. since i added futures, i have access to the oil markets and gold markets.
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>> i like harsco hrc. metals mining and rails company. industrial complex again, it's positive for harsco. >> forest city realty. i mentioned looking at the shareholders -- >> five seconds. >> -- that they announced their strategic options -- >> three seconds have a great weekend "power" starts now i'm michelle caruso-cabrera and here's what's on the "power lunch" menu. another terrorist attack in london north korea firing another missile over japan and in just minutes from now u.n. ambassador nikki haley and white house national security adviser h.r. mcmaster set to speak live at the white house. we're going to carry that briefing straight ahead. wall street once again shrugging off the terror and the missiles the dow, the s&p 500, and the nasdaq all hitting record highs. can anything rattle this market? and today's attack in london putting security front and center shocking in-depth look at the threat