tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC January 2, 2018 12:00pm-1:00pm EST
food mark. thanks taking a look at indseize, major indices holding on the dow still up just over 40 points but nasdaq, boy. >> we've been chuckling about the outperformers and ge is leading the way in the doubt. >> first week of the year you often get that reversal trade. i think that's why the nasdaq is up and dow is up less so today. >> thanks, guys. we'll see if it sticks that's it for "squawk alley. "halftime report" here at the nyse starts right now. >> and welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner live today from post 9 at the new york stock exchange our top trade this hour, new year's same rally. the first trading day as you november 2018. stocks come off their best year in four and now up for nine straight quarters. the question is how long can this rub last? with us, joe terranova, josh brown, steve weiss and jon najarian joe, what's your best guess here as this really does feel like
the wind is at back of investors here in stocks. >> how much different that is since friday when everyone was talking about selling off shares of tech and 2018 was not going to be the year of technology, but yet we come in this morning and we seat flows which i think are very important to pay attention to in the first couple of weeks the flows are going into technology also, i would be watching as a early indicator of to 18 the u.s. dollar and where that goes. we are challenging the 17 levels knows lows are the lowest level since 14 so i think that's going to be important early on. >> i meaning the setup, josh, would appear to be -- to be pretty darn good other than the fact that you've been up almost unabated for as long as we can remember what's the other risk that's out there to this story continuing the way that it ended. >> i think the most bullish thing that you can say the setup right now is when you actually look back at years where the s&p has a phenomenal year, there is nothing in the data, at least historically, that says we have to mean revert downward or
accept a lousy year of performance. literally nothing says that. we've had lots of 25% years for the overall u.s. stock market where the follow-on year was a double-digit return. it's not uncommon and that smokes to momentum which is a real phenom nofnl the other thing worth pointing out it's not like we had a gappy year this year where you had a couple of big days that delivered all the performance. last year it was chinese water torture for the bears, a slow grind higher did not have a lot of notable plus one days in the dow. >> next to no volatility, the calmest year we can remember. >> yeah. so, lock, the easiest thing on earth to do is say this is the year volatility comes back and this is the year we give back some of the gains we've pulled, okay, fine, maine. but there's no way to know that right now and the trend at this point is pretty unequivocal and until that changes i don't know why somebody wants to front run and say, yeah, that's it because the calendar turned over and all
the good things going on are going to stop. >> you've got the tax plans through and companies feeling optimistic and consumers feeling optimistic and retail ended the year doing pretty well happened now we're talking infrastructure what upsets that story >> you know, what's interesting is that there's still no playbook that's been written from the environment that we're in with the synchronized global expansion as we've said in the past we've seen this before in any of our investing lifetimes, and josh is absolutely right you don't sell just because it's gone too far when the trend is still there. i did make some changes though, i waited for the year to turn and i sold united airlines i think the airlines will have a tough time with oil moving and unit i believe is the worth of run consumer business i've ever seen in my entire career they are completely hope it deaf i did start to buy some etfs in the mid-cap space, small cap that are completely focused on domestic companies i think the opportunities to spend some time with investors that are ceos of companies just
on the u.s. and they are blown away by the benefits and the cutback on regulations and they are putting in their business and seeing the profit margins increased and i think that will be a dominant theme versus last year when the russell was keeping pace and the s&p may be a little bit bomb that's the place you really want to focus your assets on. >> doc, if you think the real continues, maybe it takes a different form there's a different leadership group, for example technology isn't the overwhelming winner. i mean, maybe it is. is there any reason to think that -- that the sectors that led will stop leading? >> there's no reason to believe that right now, judge. i mean, materials, i talked about industrials and materials at the end of 2017 for the last month and a half they have been scorching to the upside that continues today freeport is up another 3% today. it's one that we've talked about time and time again for unusual
activity and continues today and some of the seasonal plays and when you look at wtw, weight watchers, i mean, that stock is a seasonal stock as any stock could ever be. >> right. >> everybody has that new year's resolution they want to do better they want to get themselves in better shape he's out there leading the charge this stock is up, whatever, 5%, 6%. >> 5.25%. >> just surging oday. >> and we did have a perma fan that just texted you and i and his burning question is what is on my face well, it's an heir of sophistication. >> is that seasonal? >> what doc said about the materials i think is -- i think is really important to highlight because materials have become a tiny sector within the s&p however, take a look at the bloomberg commodities index as an example it's got two years in a rove positive returns
for of the first time you have to go back a very long time to find that. the s&p has outperformed commodities seven years straight which is very, very rare historically, but commodities into the end of the yeared at material stocks related to them went absolutely wild in the last two weeks. a lot that have is coinciding with better than expected data in the economy, and inflation concerns quite frankly barron's made inflation the cover story this week. there really isn't much of a sign of it other than this uptick that we're seeing in wages. the journal this morning talking about cities with low unemployment now finally seeing employers having to pay their employees more we haven't been able to use the iword on this show with a straight face since we started. >> you thought about it going into the end of the year your position that at least you're thinking about. >> the closest thing i think i can think of us having a new playbook you know, we don't change our holdings just because the year turns over, but we are talking
more about inflation to clients. it's something that's been almost a joke to the punch line and the market is telling us that we're wrong to continue to poke fun at people who are concerned with inflation it's not just about the cover on the "wall street journal" today. take a look at the commodities indices and focus away from the crudes and look at the softs, the metals, things are happening that have not phone a long time. >> isn't the only question that matters where do you think earnings should be with relation to the recovery hand what ultpal do you put on top of it purchase given where interest rate are? >> a cpi above 3% or personal consumption and expenditure index with a higher reading, arguably the earnings growth becomes more northern because you don't historically get the multiple growth anymore. >> judge, joe opened, you know, volatility, correctly so, because everybody had talked about, oh, yeah. the's call is it's going to be
higher v rol next year, and it hasn't been higher vol we're only this many hours into the new year, jumping, as far as trading, but it's down 10% the vix for the people that bought protection into the end of the year slaughtered today, down a so% you go out to i think it's march right now to find a reading of 12 in the futures, so there's nothing that's telling us right now that we're anticipating higher vol going forward, so to your question what's going to derail us? nobody really knows. there's not an accurate prediction out there. >> sorry, steve. >> i do think there's a couple of big debates the first is inflation and inflation never goes away forever. it's been a long time and it will come back. >> and the only question is to what degree does it in. >> exactly. >> and that takes it to the ten-year, and the ten-year nearer term will go to the 250 level so i think you should be shorted, so i think you should be short bunds to, tent you can
get them off and then the big real debate in terms where to be is in infrastructure with the deficit where it is, can trump get infrastructure done i think you want to be -- i don't know if he can or can't, but i assigned a 50-50 probability to taxes i think you want exposure there. exposure in the domestic companies there. >> i began the show talking about the doller a and that's where you'll see an early indication if inflation will come back and everyone here is talking about different sectors, and that's why at the end of 2017 you saw some of the sectors that had been viewed as value sectors and had been underweight like the energy space, like some of the material names and you saw money flows come in once again. the right thing to do for someone who is not a long-term holder of equities but someone who is more name softball to look at all the sectors and make sure you allocate it accordingly and don't have an overattraction to any particular sector early on in the year see where the flows and a the momentum is going to find itself
after we come out of the earnings season, and then i think you need to get more aggressive, and a lot of that was balancing the scale between technology and the energy trade at the end of '17. i think it's the right way to go into '18. >> josh, you wrote something that was interesting regarding sort of where we are in the cycle talking about you'veia we show every sign of wanting to go back to that place. you said bank of america and merrill is wondering the same thing. is that one of the biggest risks to the market? >> so i'm not suggesting somebody place a bet on you'vior the word is so overused. people were using it inp 2013. people were screaming euphoria and i think we've doubled since then we haven't seen it yet in this cycle. seen it in certain pockets, bitcoin and certain areas of tech stocks. you can make the case that some valuations and some companies have been exhibiting euphoria for a while like tesla, and that's fine but i don't think
we've seen is culturally and it hasn't gotten to the point where everybody is talking about how much money they are making on their investments. now they are on the precipice of that, and there's a political ting to it, of course, and there were some people who don't want to be euphoric because the people who are have a different viewpoint on the president i don't even want to go there, but if we're going to have euphoria then we could see something insane like a dow 30,000 run this year historically crazier things have happened just in the nasdaq index, so i just want to say that i don't think that we've had euphoria this whole time i've not been one of these people screaming bubble thankfully because it's benefited myself and my clients by hang back on that, but i think we're the closest that we've been to it right now, and if we continue to see low volatility and continue to see interest in things like crypto currencies, yeah, you're going to be able to say that with a straight face this year. >> in the 30 years i've been doing this euphoria has been measured in terms of leverage
and you go back to any euphoric period and you've had high leverage where is the high leverage at this point right now >> glad you asked it you don't need high leverage when there's so much cash coming from every central bank in the world and such an eves raising are money. you don't require the same levels of leverage that you might have in times of less liquidity being available. >> hold on. >> support it. you have the vision fund which is hilarious by any stretch of the imagination, the most hilarious development of 2017 where a very bright man in japan from softbank said basically you guys are going to pay me to invest more than you pay anyone else to invest and you're going to do it because i'm going to pay the highest prices and take the most outrageous bets in the highest valuation sector and there was a line around the corner to give this guy money and it's not just coming from technofiles. it's many coming from the government of saudi arabia and coming from large banks. it's coming from people that ordinarily would be way more
risk-averse than what they are doing right now, and it's almost like a badge of honor saying, you know, we're going pay obscene prices for very highly -- >> they buy into his time horizon which is 300 years. >> which is the most hilarious that's lewdious. >> i almost dropped an f-bomb. that's completely hilarious. that's an example of leverage -- i don't want to say leverage but people acting in the same way they normally would have with borrowed money the difference is now they don't have to borrow it. it's being handed to them. >> cramer looked at the market and he said don't trust where we are right now. let it come in a little, but if you're not in the market yet, i mean, if you look at the way that we had, you know, a darn good year in '17, poem a-- peopl are optimistic about where we are right now. >> i would disagree. jim said look for a 12% to 2% correct. market timing is always a flawed strategy except for a few people
i know that can do it, one when i mentioned earlier is probably the best at it, but other than that you can't market time so if your downside is 1% to 2%, give me any investment where that's your downside i'll get in it every day and put everything and take advantage of the upside. >> but have some stocks -- have some groups of stocks run a little too far >> sure they have. >> and you should let them come in >> sure they have, but every group has moved. you wouldn't think the stlils are at all-time highs base you're not real talking about it that much, technology. it's there, but if the fundamentals are intact and the trend is there, it's like jim said, anybody who has tried to market time aal has made had a mistake. >> what are you going to tell somebody to do with a beg or caterpillar. some of these huge winners >> they are overvalued under historic measures. however, where are you going to put money if you're not putting it into the market and equities? >> judge, we saw a couple of really big trades come in today in tech.
i'll talk about one on unusual activity, but they came in, and they were people thinking exactly what you're saying they were worried saying, you know, i feel a little like jim cramer i really don't want to put more money in right here, but i've got a big holding in this tech stock. i'll sell these out of the money calls and i'm selling out of money puts $10 above where the stock is, $10 below where the stock is i'm taking in a ton of money on that trade, and if vol doesn't go higher, i keep all of it anyway, and if the stock doesn't violate either end, $10 higher or $10 lower, which would be a reach anyway, this guy is going or gal is going to bank a lot of money on that trade. i've seen that pouring into several stocks today in particular in the tech sector where people think maybe it needs a rest. >> what's going to be the biggest surprise, do you think, of the upcoming year pick something that you think will surprise investors and the way that it performs
is it a comeback in energy stocks, best start to the year for oil since 2014 it's a two-year high gundlach and others predicting a good year for commodities and if the dollar remains lower, that's a positive as well >> i would say this. i would say last year in 2017 we spent a year talking about rotations, the last rotation of 2017 is exactly what you were identifying. it was a leaders into a lag yard line -- into a lagard's rotation if we don't get into january or february the long-awaited correction, in 2018 you could see another year like 2017 where you're just absent like paul richards said at the beginning of the year. you never really see the pullback for the second consecutive year, so i think the time frame and the window, if it's going to happen and great if it does, it's going to happen early on, or you might not get it again which i think who blow everyone away. >> the biggest surprise is going to be rates in my view that will be the big surprise and that can stall the rally.
>> what, more than people think. >> or sooner in the year. >> right now it's -- even 20 to 30 basis points higher is that going torattle >> no. >> tell me what europe, japan and china are doing and i'll tell you whether or not 20 or 30 basis points rattles because you do have this -- this global thing that is not common to rate hike cycles the way it is to this one, so if -- if you're not getting the offset from other central banks, then, yeah, it could. >> going back to jim's point i'm never fully invested. >> and he's very positive on market thinks the numbers are low. >> it's difficult to market time most people can't, but i always keep cash because i'm always looking for the opportunity to add to something that's mispriced or falls out of bed, so i think that's one strategy. >> all right we're just getting started here's whales is coming on "the halftime report. >> had a top analyst in th
restaurant space is picking a big winner for 018. >> order up. >> see what it is, and how hoy he thinks it can go next. and a hedge fund legend on the sideline for quite some time may be about to re-emerge. before the break our data partners at kensho say beware of january. since 2012 on average the nasdaq, s&p, dow and russell all trade lower in the first month of the year. for more go to cnbc.com/kensho "the halftime rert" thpowi scott wapner and the traders is back in two minutes see that's funny, i thought you traded options. i'm not really a wall street guy. what's the hesitation? eh, it just feels too complicated, you know? well sure, at first, but jj can help you with that. jj, will you break it down for this gentleman? hey, ian. you know, at td ameritrade, we can walk you
through your options trades step by step until you're comfortable. i could be up for that. that's taking options trading from wall st. to main st. hey guys, wanna play some pool? eh, i'm not really a pool guy. what's the hesitation? it's just complicated. step-by-step options trading support from td ameritrade
mcdonald's today after they were no longer declared the strongest stock of 2017. they raise their eps same-store sales and it's on a number of cat lifts, fresh beef, new dollar menu, subway's woes and the possibility of a stock split. >> really. shows the value of a shoempt take a lo - value of a ceo and other companies, too, like caterpillar. brought a new ceo in and all of a sudden the stock is up 50% look, it's got momentum to keep going and it's not just domestic, but domestic is a big part of it. >> if goldman sachs believes this is only second year what have could be a five-year cycle for what they are doing, by
think what's important to look at right now is the quick-serve restaurant environment and what's the pricing pressure from the value meal itself. dunkin' has done incredibly well but i'm concerned lowering prices for mccafe is going to lower prices on dunk yifnlt look at wendy's and chipotle and a sonic, what mcdonald's is doing clearly from a competitive standpoint doing incredibly well, but it's also going to create a tremendous amount of pressure, and it's going to create some losers in the quick-serve environment. >> how big would that be, the first stock split in nearly two decades. doc? >> it would be huge. the two for three, rather than the dollar menu. now it's two for three, so you're getting a 50% bump claesically $1.50 instead of the 99 cent and that's a nice bump for them i'm not so much pushing back against you, joe, but with the
premium sandwiches on their menu, they are not necessarily pressuring in my mind, anyway, the providers like dunkin' as much has they are creating a category they are competing against the josh shake shack category. now i'm not saying mccans burger is going to be the same as a shake shack burger, but they are definitely getting a premium in there. some of those burgers are running $6 or more, some of the specialized burgers at mcdid, so i think the ticket -- the price per ticket or revenue per ticket is going to be substantially higher and that's why they like it so much. >> josh, is this a good bick >> technically this is one of the best rook stocks in the market, and the only argument against it for two years now has been valuation, but we've seen the multiple go from 20 times to 27 times so that's been a losing target that's what you're trading based on it's a very's hold with a trailing stock market i would focus only on weekly charts with
this one and i would look at a 50-week moving average you're about 25 points over that level so that would probably be your risk, and i would tolerate short-term volatility here, scott, even if it's created in earnings reports because the bigger picture lend it is so obvious and solid i would rather in it than not in it to jon's point, if you're within half a mile of a shake shack and pay $6 for a mcdonald's versus the shake shack $7 version, you should have your head examined. >> a look at how moves are being used in the options market first, an s&p sector check s&p starts the new year right noup now up 17 points. discretionry, energy, healthcare 'rading the way. wee back after this on "halftime. at fidelity, trades are now just $4.95.
welcome back, everybody. i'm sue herera here's what's happening at this hour an arctic blast causing extremely cold weather across much of the country with temperatures in many states at or below freezing. winter storm watches are in effect from new england all the way from northern florida. you're not even safe in florida these days with that weather. president trump tweeting about north korea saying, quote, sanctions and other pressures are beginning to have a big impact on north korea. zolt soldiers are dangerously fleeing to south korea rocket man now wants to talk to south korea for the first time perhaps that's good. perhaps not. we'll see, end quote. a tragic and busy few weeks for firefighters in new york city continued in the bronx early this morning 16 people had to be rescued from fire broke out in this apartment complex. several were injured but
thankfully no fatalities and a massive eruption under way near the indonesian resort island of ball i. this is time lapse video of the volcano sending smoke and ash high up into the air there's been increased volcanic activity in that area for a few months in 1963 an erupt from that volcano killed more than 1,000 people. >> you're up to date that's the news update scotty, back dun town to you. >> let's go to dom chu with a market flash. >> looking at where the records are, in the dow transportation average. it hit a record intraday high and it's near that high and holding there near midday trading. all at last check are high on the day. shares of matteson, fedex, ryder system and ups are up. back over to you
>> all right dom, thanks very much who likes the transports here? >> i think -- i think the airlines are going to be challenged they don't hedge as much as they used to. if you look at their fuel costs for the last quarter they were rights meaningfully and if you have a low dollar and you're bushel on energy, i think you have some -- some troubled waters for the airlines going forward. >> this is from somebody who has been as bullish on the airlines as anybody that i can recall. >> absolutely. >> hat least over the last couple of years. >> absolutely correct, and i will be shaving again on the -- on american airlines. >> shaving >> not shaving here. >> i don't want to get past the break news that you'll be shaving. >> thank god. >> but, no, i think that that's their biggest cause. >> i will eventually be out of it. >> look. if you take a look -- take a look at the ual. it's lagged the s&p by 5%.
luv has been the best and price wars there have been extreme i'm not as positive as i've been i'm neutral right now. >> jon najarian is at the telestrator for unusual activity a couple of tech stocks and have an update for you as well. doc, why don't you go first with the name you've got for us today. >> we'll start off with blackberry, judge. bb they just said a little over a week ago margins are going to be up to around the 74% level phenomenal it's making a nice move today at 5%, but people are in there buying the 13 calls. that implies a pretty nice pop between now and march. i bought it today. i'll probably be in the calls i would say two to three weeks, judge. second up, microsoft started off top of the program and we're talking about unusual activity somebody stepped in here and sold the 95 calls. you see where it is. it's at 85
they sold 95 calls and sold 75 puts and they took in, the person that did this, took in about $5.2 million in premium. if we stay in that band from now through july, the person reasons a huge reward and gets whatever dividends and stock buyback benefit that microsoft gives them lastly, take a look at waste management, wm they just in the last 30 minutes or so came scrambling in to waste management buying upside calls. i bought these during the show so i had to disclose it now. waste is at 86 they started buying these calls aggressively i think about 8,000 of those lastly you mention an update. >> constellation brands. >> take a look at this one >> very nice move. we talked about the buying last woke at the 150 -- i'm sorry in constellation. it was 224 when we talked about it and popped to 229 and pulls become a little bit here to
around 226.61. still like to and have over 50% of the position on it right now. >> a lot of stuff for us today, doc, appreciate it. >> i was waiting for him to do the five-day forecast. >> just say cold just say cold and you're good. hedge fund legend steve cohen making a comeback as his two-year ban to manage other people's money comes to an end and michelle caruso-cabrera has a look at what's coming up on "power lunch." >> starts in 27 minutes, top of the hour, scott. geopolitical hot spots, unrest in iran and threats from north korea. will they start to take a toll on the big market rally. >> plus, danica pan trick is live in studio and how she's transitioning from the last lane into the corner office cashing in on cannabis
"halftime" is back after this. more on "power" at the top of the hour. >> miss the call of the day, unusual activity or final tradesed it's never too late to get in on the action just go to cnbc.com/halftime [speaking french] ♪ [speaking french] ah...i don't understand... ♪ ♪ this is what our version of financial planning looks like. ♪ tomorrow's important, but this officially completes his education.
welcome back 2018 could be a big year for hedge fund legend steve cohen and leslie picker joins us now happy new year to you. >> reporter: as the ball dropped so did a regulatory ban from cohen managing money it's been two years since the s.e.c. prohibited cohen from overseeing funds that manage outside capital. that came as part of a settlement in january 2016 over charges that cohen failed to supervise a portfolio manager who engaged in insider trading while employed at his former firm sac capital since then cohen has opinion running a hedge office with soupe vision and he's been looking to drum up new interest for a new fund and he's elicited help to meet with investors and test the waters. he had's aim to charge higher than average fees with stricter
lockup requirements that have garnered mixed reception from respective lps because the hedge fund pendulum has shifted in recent years to lps. amid underperformance lps have had more leverage to fight for concessions from hedge funds such as lower fees how a cohen comeback fits into this changing hedge fund world remains to be seen and from what my sources tell me there's still no 100% guarantee that cohen will launch stanford harbor capital. though he did it does not appear that he's done so yet. >> stay with us as we kick this around i'll go to you first, steve >> the guy who runs it is a very good friend of mine, and he was head of global marketing for steve. so those two married when i was in abu dhabi a number of investors, foreign investors said they can't believe they have to take their money back and want to put it back n.however, you have to balance
that with the year that some of these funds have had that do the same type of trading that steve does and they charge high fees there's massive turnover and they just haven't put up the returns because they haven't had the volatility so they run a low net, their boar, meaning they are either long or short 10% versus being wrong 100% which has been the place, to -- so it's a challenging environment. >> even if you work for steve. >> steve's incredible talented, but keep in mind that steve's got 900 people working for him so you're not just putting money with steve you're putting money with all the others as well. >> sure. but you are banking on steve's reputation. >> if that strategy works you want to go with steve. the question is that the right strategy going forward >> you think there's a right appetite to pay 3 and 30 for somebody who doesn't have a process beyond having a great reputation for nailing trades all the time >> well, look, if you look at
his numbers, returns, returns have been phenom familiar. >> agreed. >> but from the institutional side, and if you're an institutional investor and you're sitting in a pension plan, you're not getting paid for take risks and putting money with .72 given the fines that they had to pay. that's no win for sglut upside is if it works out, it was supposed to work out and if it doesn't work out what are you doing and how could you do it? >> leslie, do we know what the fee structure would be >> it's not 3, right >> it's closer to 3 and then there's a sliding scale with as much as 30% on performance based on what his performance is, so they are definitely much, much higher than average and average, as you know, has been taken down over recent years so certain funds this would be double what they would be charging >> it's similar to other funds like that, leslie, millennium,
sam with 3 and 5 when they add back the costs. >> i doubt you'll see a lot of endowments going in and i think a lot of private wealth funds in particular to your point again -- >> i don't even think it's the fee -- the fee is obviously important, but i also think. >> it's not the fee. >> there's a zeitgeist in the investment community which extends from the individual mom and pop all the way up to someone running a giant college endowment which is to have an expublic habel and somewhat rules-based strategy so that when things don't go as expected, that in itself is expected, and there's an answer that can be given to somebody. we expect this to perform in this environment and to have more rules >> that's unfair. >> i'm not saying it doesn't work it's not popular. >> they have rules the risk management it team
there is the best as anybody you take a look at their drawdowns they have been different. >> i'm talking about something different. people who are investing now in etfs, in indexes, not just because they are cheap or because they have given up. >> right. >> because they say at least i understand what this is supposed to do and how it works, and you won't have a situation like what you had at sequoia, for example, where valiant ended up being 30% of the funds. >> those are never the investors who invested in hedge funds. >> i don't know. i think people have converted over the years. >> but the big watchword is uncorrelated they don't want to be correlated to the market at these levels hand they have been taking money out. i'm talking about billion dollar and above family offices and they are very taxed concerns they want to be tax efficient, and these strategies are not tax efficient in the least. >> leslie, thanks very much. leslie picker joining us there the trades on abbott labs, lululemon, netflix, disney all
next in the bliz "halftime report" is back in two minutes. >> "the halftime report" with scott wapner is the place for market-moving interviews. >> i think the market is reasonably fully valued, the conditions that would lead to a big decline won't exist. >> real money. >> it's a massive short volatility trade. >> real debates. >> you have to be humble to acknowledge when the facts are tt tn the original thesis. >> "the halftime report" weekdays at noon eastern you always pay your insurance on time. tap one little bumper, and up go your rates. what good is having insurance if you get punished for using it? news flash: nobody's perfect. for drivers with accident forgiveness, liberty mutual won't raise your rates due to your first accident.
time for the blitz first up a bot labs hitting an all-time high after jpmorgan and morgan stanley upgraded that stock and guggenheim added it to its best stocks list. >> q3 was very strong for them, organic growth coming in around 6% they have many new products. this is up with of the names that in 2008 will perform well. >> baxter striker takes to overweight and you've been in striker before >> yes, and i sold it just the other day. i'm keeping my pki and abbott labs is a name if we get a pullback i would buy it over striker. >> lululemon downgraded to neutral at citi. the stock is moving higher and weiss, i'm wondering what you make of the call look, that's been a great stock. >> been a great stock and they are one of the few with a buy on it i still think that lululemon has a franchise and a brand that's
been unsealable so far i can tell you that the stores are very crowded i was in them over the holidays, and i just think it keeps going. valuation has always been a question here. so -- but that's the market, so i would not sell. >> this got a lot of chatter today, doc netflix, disney both upgraded. >> josh was talking about it on twitter last night because when this basically -- when people look at these two and say, boy, they should have bought them years ago, they are both working just fine. they can work separately it doesn't have to be a deal where disney buys netflix, and you take a look at many soft other like cbs and discoverry, two that we've talked about for unusual activity lately. i think you'll see more activity in this space, judge. >> all right how about -- >> and they are not like crazy bullish on this. 125 is their target and they don't raise earnings estimates about i a pen they year so they
are counting on goodwill from the market based on a launch late 2019 off the over-the-top product. >> what about the netflix part of this call the stock up 50%. >> took earnings up by 50 cents this year, so, i mean, seems like they are more bullish on netflix than disney. >> is that the way investors should view this >> yes. >> netflix still has that much room >> disney won't get bought. >> disney won't have the streaming app. >> for a while. >> until two years from now. >> right. >> so if you're buying it for that. >> i'm not suggesting netflix over disney, i'm simply saying netflix at overweight now after a 50% run in the okay? is that have justified >> yes. >> justifiable >> i still think you're in cord-cutting i don't think that's ended, and netflix still presents the absolute best value of any in the media. >> nordstrom is higher following an upgrade to neutral at
jpmorgan strongest holiday season, josh in, three years. >> big upgrade to neutral from sell that's really exciting >> where sentiment has been on the department store stocks it feels like a strong buy. >> it's up 12 points from its low in november already. the best thing i can say about nordstrom, it's at a make-or-break right here $50 has been resistant twice in 2017 if back and look at earl el may and then go back again and look at late july t.failed there twice. maybe the third time is the charm. it's not a bet that i want to talk you have had a flat-lining 200-day moving average so no real trend interest, but you do have 17 preponderance short interest and to your point sentiment has been terrible so maybe if the momentum continues on same-store sales, finally it gets above 50. >> let's talk gold prices on pace it is for its eighth straight st y of gains coming off the beear since 2010 the trades from the futures pit next
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back on "halftime. gold on its longest daily winning streak since 2014. the futures now crew standing by to talk a little gold. >> that's exactly right. gold rallying for its eighth straight session today and trading near its highest level since september. what's your outlook for the yellow metal >> well, when you take a look at gold, it's actually, if you normalize volatility in the cryptocurrencies, gold has been very well correlated it lagged a little in november and december, now it's playing
catchup for the bitcoin moves and some of the others let's be honest. there is some inflation going on take a look at the crb index commodity prices since the middle of october have really been moving higher copper, oil, et cetera i think gold is starting to say hey, there is inflation in this market, you may want to old gold right now. >> gold breaking above 1300. what are the levels to watch at this point >> well, that 1300 is the support right now. on the upside we are looking at 1320, little bit of resistance there, but 1334 is the bigger number take a look at the dollar, when you are talking about gold on december 12th the dollar reached over the 94 handle on the dollar index and that was actually the low for gold. since then they both moved in opposite directions. dollar trading 91 handle if it goes lower, gold is going higher >> all right thanks, guys today we are joined by christina hooper on the bull pace for investing abroad plus we break down 200 years of
interest rates in just one chart. all at the top of the hour scott? >> jackie, thank you final trades from the desk up next this is where i trade andrs. manage my portfolio. since i added futures, i have access to the oil markets and gold markets. okay. i'm plugged into equities- trade confirmed- and i have global access 24/7. meaning i can do what i need to do, then i can focus on what i want to do. visit learnfuturestoday.com to see what adding futures can do for you.
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welcome back to the halftime report amazon and target are both higher today big prediction for 2018. amazon could acquire target this year far-fetched or make sense? >> well, they acquired whole foods, so you take that, extrapolate that, say what could be next, target. because they want the distribution so i think that will change the way people think about amazon, frankly, when it goes to more and more brick and mortar. we already have a lot of brick and mortar in terms of distribution but not far-fetched. >> they can use those retail outlets for more than just retail because they have -- all those megastores have a lot of storage space and there's no reason why logistically they couldn't use them to distribute products into areas that frankly it's more expensive to do so in the traditional way with the post office
>> we are hearing amazon may be target, may be kohl's, may be nordstrom. >> it will be all the retail names. i think the solution for the real estate problem these retail names has is going to be amazon. everyone will say well, amazon will come in and clean up the real estate problem. i don't know if that's necessarily the reality of what's going to occur. that's a big purchase. >> when do we start seeing 13-ds get filed? >> is this the read on the level of aggressiveness from an amazon or the desperation of the others >> desperation come save us come and save us >> well, i mean, come on, though not in target's case >> no, not in target's case. the question was retail. >> to pete's point, with pete cornell, the stock's up from 55 to 67, almost 68 now
it's been one of the outperformers the last month of retail, target has granted, it was slaughtered to get down there i do like it here. whether or not they get bought >> it's a little bit of both, tell you the truth where amazon falls short is that while they make about 35% of their own products, where they fall short is in having unique products that are premium products rather than being a platform i don't know that target gets them there for that. >> why would target want to sell to walmart -- to amazon anyway >> premium >> nice price. right. same reason anybody else would when are you back, tomorrow? >> no, friday. >> that long the beard lives for a few more days all right. good to have you back. good to see all you guys happy, healthy to everybody. let's do final trades. >> wells fargo big upside call buying in february >> iusg. i was talking about it,
mid-small cap focuses on u.s. involvement companies. >> charles scwhab. way more than a rates trade. forget about this. this is a power house name to own this year. >> small trade going long. >> thanks for watching see you tomorrow "power lunch" begins right now >> i'm melissa lee stocks kicking off 2018 with a strong start but will six days of protests in iran and new tensions with north korea put a dent in this rally we debate. president trump back in d.c., tweeting up a storm, weighing in on everything from the economy to border control, airline safety and much, much more what's next on the trump agenda? we get the very latest recreational pot sales rolling out in california. you can cash in on the booming multi-billion dollar business. yep, there's now an etf for that is it a buy or beware? "power lunch" 2018 starts now. ha