tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC July 25, 2018 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT
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watching facebook ahead of that company's earnings this is up 10% in the past month. we'll see if run up too much into earnings or got further to go >> along with ford and qualcomm tonight. we'll keep a close eye on d.c. with these trade talks over to the judge and the half zblnchs welcome the top trade, the facebook face off. ahead of the company's critical earnings tonight, our traders debate whether it is the best faang stock to own right now here to debate now, jon and pete, sarat. let's begin with the market. stocks are mixed nasdaq strong again as becount down to the facebook earnings. the best performi ining fang stk
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over the past three months why has it been outperform iing? >> it was sold off we know the whole story with the cambridge analytic then everybody started looking at the numbers let's look past this for a moment how is facebook doing. when you look at this company in the world of fang, stcott, look at the pe of facebook. when i look across facebook, i don't own netflix, amazon. i own facebook i own facebook stock, calls. the reason is they've got so many verticals and i think zuckerberg has done a magnificent job of at least taking a lot of what the headaches were when the tstock was hit down to 150 away and gotten focused on hey, look, here's the cash generation we've got. all the different verticals and how we're going to win >> three months. i said facebook is the top fang performer. up 34.5% amazon, 25.5 apple, 18, google, 23.5.
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we needed microsoft. a great performer. up 17. we've debated, doc, whether facebook or google is the better stock to observe and the majority of people on the desk said google. what do you think? >> that's what leon cooperman said yesterday, too. i don't own google, but i do own facebook it is now my biggest position. i think all about royal. that is revenue, operating margin, instagram and legal or regulatory, however we want to do that. so in order, i'm taking fang and throwing it into royal i think that's what it's about instagram is what everybody i have been really researching is using and that's where the real growth is for this company as you said a lot of folk, snap chat is where it's at. the same folks crossover and do instagram here and i think that's why they win. and it's the operating margins what kind of margins are they pull out of this with the
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instagram growing as fast as it is take iing those snap chat folks away when you look at one versus the other, it's not even close instagram is running away with it if those numbers are reflecting tonight, it's b about revenue, it's b about instagram, operating margins then the regulatory overhang, depending on how that plays out, this thing goes significantly higher. >> the stock is at a high today. a lot is riding on this. >> i'm just in call spreading. i'm long the 215 calls calling for about a move if we move above a $10 move, great, but that's my target right now. is basically the 225s. they have been romming up and been right for months in this thing. >> this has been a sick move >> you and i were the only buyers on the desk
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>> the run it has had has been remarkable in the short-term, i own the stock. we own facebook and google i think it's a wonderful company. instagram. tis so big globally that's that's going to be a crown i like the stock expectations are probably going to be much higher than what they deliver because they're going to talk down what's going on in terms of the legal activity, but a great company the own. >> are we suggesting that facebook is the best fang stock to own right now is that what you guys are telling me >> i'm saying it yeah it's no suggestion i own it i don't own the others >> but the other guys can own the other one. haas fine. i have nothing google. >> i like to have that
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>> they're fighting for ads. the killer thing, the one thing zuckerberg promised everybody, we'll get there in mobile. now it's 90% of the ad rep, so they don't take it out anymore ad revenue is this and it's coming from mobile. the other thing that gets lost is about nvidia. he has been saying for i don't know how many quarters now, video is the place b to be that's where we're going to capitalize not only are they capitalizing, they're going at youtube and i think that's a game that they can win as they go forward because they can pullin a lot of those >> i'm not sure you have to win. i think the whole win market share. you can grow it, too the one thing we don't normally talk b about is 5g coming. people can use video at a much cheaper price. >> question this way valuation not with standing.
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the better returns over the next year come from facebook or from amazon which one? look at me, facebook >> better returns than facebook? amazon >> better returns than facebook. with b b facebook, yes >> doc, you're shaking your head >> yes it is a no brainer i think when they're doing whatever. $47 billion and dropping right out of there facebook stock performance is going to be better than amazon's in the next year >> i'm with them >> i don't think any one of us has owned amazon for a while going from this period on, amazon is priced for such perfection >> that's the thing. it's a lot cheaper base chiu >> you take it out and just look if i had to say, tell me today, which stock is going to be a better performer over a year
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everybody telling me that facebook gl that's the only thing that wor worries me. >> still on that side. >> we are and i think our firm and a lot of others have called for this rotation. you had lee cooperman on yesterday. he said it would be helpful to see broadening out in the markets. >> you start in this >> it's a misnomer than the market has been so narrow. >> you start, well, small caps >> josh brown. >> financials this month small caps, micro caps advanced decline all of these science are at all time highs or record highs i think the rally is more broad than people want to give it credit for >> yes and no.e looking at othet
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classes, to value beyond growth, the answer is not quite. you're sarting starting to seem gre chutes in other areas. tech has led year to date. it's like month to date in the s&p, it's been well driven by the underlying demographics of the business earnings growth, 25% 32% in q1. those are staggering numbers and oh, by the way, valuation isn't that expensive and the secular driver still remains so you got to own it but this broadening out thing is something that's really important. >> if you want to get the nasdaq i can't believe we're throwing out these numbers. not that far away. ness dak 8,000, s&p 3,000. you better are some broadening out. keep up the pace
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>> i think yo u do you've seen this broad-based rally, but you need the financials to kind of run through it but health care needs to come back and industrials kind o seem to take this one step forward, two steps back that's the overhang with what's going on >> the s&p is up for the year, but you look consumer discretionary up 15, tech up 16. that's driving it. >> pushing on it and volatilities to be low and recently, we've volumes pick up. in the last three or four days, we are finally tarting to see those volumes get closer, but july has been a very sleepy in terms of volume kind of a month. even though we're seeing this performance out of the financials and now out of the tech >> it's the right time, too, to
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with be looking at what if you want to call the second half of the year is going to bring we're six months to the day of the s&p high. i think the tech the is your driver there and then broaden out in energies like financials. >> there are a lot of wild cards out. you can talk about these sectors all you want you've got to watch the ten year the move over three. if that happens, you've got to watch the raid stuff, which is a big day. a president of the european commission is due to meet with
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the president trump at the white house today. little more than an hour big topic of course is trade kayla at the white house for a preview of that. >> they have placed high hopes on since then, the president has interviewed the european union a foe of the united states and the european commission spokesperson said that the delegation would not be comeing to washington wih a deal that wg said, the president tweeting last night that the european union is coming to negotiate a deal and i'm told by a source familiar that that tweet specifically where the president reiterates a call he made at the g7 to basically have all countries lower their tariff barriers, it was the president's trade team that urged him last night to put that out to essentially lay the ground work for today. to extend an olive branch, to say this is our message from the white house to the european
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union. that being said, the eu's commissioner for trade told a swedish newspaper that she didn't take that idea seriously and that the eu is preparing a new list of retaliatory tariffs on $20 billion in american goods if the u.s. goes forward with auto tariffs this has really riled up lawmakers on capitol hill where republicans are losing patience. listen to the way the chair of the house financial services committee talk ed about it this morning at at event hosted by cnbc >> i think that donald trump has too much power and i think that congress needs to reassert their authority and last i read the constitution, it's congress that has authority over trade and we ought the to take some of that ba back. >> a group of about a dozen republican lawmakers will be here talking about exactly what
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comes next in the trade landscape about the administration's $12 billion package to relieve farmers that% ate it announced yesterday a lot of people including those on the president's team are not happy, but we'll see what today's meeting are. >> thank you very much a lot of people in corporate america aren't happy general motormotors look at ma what they're doing. stocks getting hammered. they've cut their guidance and input costs. major inputs steel, aluminum. whirlpool. tariffs are going to be good for us wait a minute, got to rethink that they've been hit hard by tariffs. >> so you're going to get gdp on friday there's commentary out there today, a reuters poll of economists is almost like this
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is good going to get you're going to get a great number wep that the question is is how sustainable is it people expect growth to slow in the second half at least these economists who are polled in this survey. what do you see? i think that's the right way to think about it this is a particularly strong quarter that i think will will overstate what the independeundg potential of the committee is. that growth is meaningful, but not as big as this it would be a very good accomplishment for the trump administration and their tax cuts if we boosted it up to 2.5 or 2.8 i know you don't get excited, but don't you make your living there?
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the idea that, no, no. you have the spending from the federal government that's probably not going to be sustained. you have a little bit of inventory building the first time that soybeans overall gdp. that's a particular commodity. so that's going to go away and we're going to come back down to earth. the debate is where is earth >> the debate is really how big is the paid bump going to be if you hit a bump, you got to slow down a little bit and the tariffs are the ultimate ash tor of that. >> what if i told you the number we're going get is going to be fantastic. okay but it is going to be as good as it gets. what's that going to mean for the stock market, doc.
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>> i don't know a lot of us, judge. i'll just speak for myself i don't believe i'll make my investments based on a gdp number i just don't do that i pick individual stocks i don't trade the broad market i'm happy when i see a good gdp number, but to your point, if whatever the number is, four, four and a half, five, whatever the number comes out at, if that's as good as it gets as far as gdp, great, it doesn't change my opinion at all. >> if it is as as it gets, the theoretically, the stock market would then in the half of the year, start to build in the case of slower growth and that would certainly impact. >> slower than 4.8 or whatever the high-end is is so you're right b about that, scott, but overall, doesn't really change. >> they're all building in gm said we are forecasting these
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input costs to be not one, but we have to put them into our guidance when you look at the gdp at four, i think you're going to go down what is the real growth rate and is it sustainable when you get comps. you're not going to have the same type of fiscal multiplier effect >> there's a positive side of that the it's a little bit slower growth.necessarily impact anything but we have on the table right now. and the tra jktry. there's a like i hood that the fed could slow down quantitative easing and well just you know, fill the place of the tightening of the balance sheet sfwl sf >> on the front end. >> if i said though okay, tariffs and trade are going to remain an issue.
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growth is not going to be sustain bable on the number we're going to get froms if you look at the market trade, it's not trading like it's 4%. maybe 3% economy that's fine. if we can upshift a half a point to a point, forget the political bluster from the white house, which is four, five, six, stop me when i get to double digits 10% growth no, if they end up, i'm trying to give them a success on this >> they're commenting publicly about the fed raising rates. if growth slows to the point where it becomes a political
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head wind for the president and the president deems it to be partly because of the fine point. >> it's going to be -- >> they're going to get more first of all, something like 50 the to 70% of the change in stock value is essentially beta tied to the economy. you would have a different stock outlook. >> the headline of this conversation to begin with if i told you the economic picture wasn't going to be as good as we think, you're going to somewhat change the kind of stocks you're picking. now if you liked general motors wfr, p f you like general motors, two, three, six month ago like jim has, are you now reassessing a stock like general motors because you think the tariffs won't be so punitive
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the it's down 7% today because of these inp put costs i'm still buyer because i'm not full convinced this is going to be a permanent issue the tariffs coming through oil and other thing, i would stay away from certain stocks what they're earnings are going b to be. 2.5% on the gdp. those are two different questions.
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that's a different question to me as far as me dismissing what if this is the all time high for gdp. we don't know if we're going to broadly upset the north american supply chain if we're going to put these tariffs on chinese goods and raise prices if we're going to have a battle with with europe, none of us has any experience at all in how well this plays out. i'm watch iing for example ceo confidence surveys they don't appear to be affected by this. i'm watching these earnings. i'll tell you what i'm watching. not just the statement about how high high tariffs are affecting input costs or potential sales, but how the tax cut plays in with that an option here and part of trump's calculus, if maybe that's too fancy a word for how
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the president is is take, but maybe he's right is that he has a little bit of house money to play with and that gets right to the numbers we're discussing i'll finish real quick chass which is that if the result of the tariff is to bring a strong gdp number of three down to two and three quarters, that's okay, but if he's taking a two number and bringing it to one, it's not kay. sfwl that's why you have people like jamie dimon this week saying tariffs could undo some of the tax policy. goldman suggesting if you get a full blown trade war, you get a hit to s&p earnings. that directly impacts the way stocks will trade from here forward. thank you. >> here's what else is coming up on the halftime report >> one wall street angel sees value in a big defense player. the name is next on the call of the day. our partners at kensho show a week after posting results, facebook falters, falling 69% of the time an average of 1.33%. for many, go to b cnbc.com/kensh
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lockheed martin upgraded to outperform they're calling for a 15% rally from here. take a look at what's going on in the stock sarat, what's your view here lockheed is barely up. we just showed northrup, which is getting hammered. >> they've had such a good run in the past and boeing's getting some of it back, too i would wait i think it's too early these are great stocks, but we had the election >> haven't had much of a run in the past three months.
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down three and a half. >> the market's discounting what the future is. i don't see a lot of promise here there are other opportunities. >> after the one year run, that was impressive but now you're looking so far to date they've underperformed. that's why this is the time to start looking at them. when you look at what they put out there was a 370 price target when you look at the cash flows, now the biggest you read when you read this in myopinion is these guys have 29% of their sales are coming from the f-35 that can be concerning, but i don't necessarily view that as overfly concerning, so am i in it right now but i like this name and the way they're putting off cash similar to a boeing yet traded under boeing
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>> i think there is some wor as it relates upcoming election but i do think within industrial, this is a place you can look >> u don't like it because of trade? the possibilities of a cyclical growth down shift. those shrank dramatically. not the same at lockheed martin. they boosted them up just a little bit, but that's why you're seeing the disparity and performance. down 2.5%year to date. look heed martin is up 1.5 north rupp is down 8% in a week. obviously a big bulk of that is today's move alone
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the it's a loss of nearly -- >> it's all about price. prices become more attractive. >> guess what, these guys get put right in the negotiation >> what about boeing specifically you referenced this huge move over the last year >> all boeing does is they continue to impress every -- it's really working right now and obviously they're not just defense. they've got the airplanes they're going to the commercial side of things the cash flow is there when you look at the multiple, it's tougher because it's a little higher. forward is about 25. but gosh, the money they're putting off. the cash flow is incredible. like a tech company the way they're throwing off cash. >> this is a place where the bar has been high because of the stock. they raised their sales outlook today. but it was underwhelming to some
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>> down 2% on a tok that has made the kind of run that boeing has made this is a relatively insignificant reaction today given where the stock has come from >> i thought wed get a shot at buying it 245. didn't get that shot today it slammed down into the 340 34 0s >> okay, usual activity coming up wijon and pete they are tracking bullish moves in an emerging market. seen a gain of 13% for the month. how much is left first though, the s&p sector check. tech, energy, leading the way today. halftime is back in two minutes.
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down more than 6% in the last six months. jon and pete with unusual activity we're talking that and a name in the auto space pete, you're up first with this one. >> i'm going to start with this ewz. we've had petra in the past. we've had -- as well i sold just so you know the last of what i had today ch but ewz i've been talking about this one already in this month. it's been ggressive. just a couple of weeks ago, they were buying the august 35 calls in here. 30,000 were bought what did they do today they stepped in and are wiing the august 37.5 calls. 30,000 of those trading. now as part of that trade, the ones they bought the 35s, they paid 78 cents for they will. sold them today for 266. they bought these calls today for 78 cents as well so going right back in, i own calls here already from previous buys i like the ewz it's made a nice move in the last month i like when a guy has
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been right then wants to roll and ta inside that stock or etf in this case gl interesting move. jon? >> tata motors the ttm. look at this sell off. beginning of the year, it was about 35 bucks it's basically half of that now. at 18.5, but it looks like it's get iting ready to make a move o the upside they're buying october calling today, i bought these same calls as you can see here. tata october calls, big numbers bought i'll probably be in them until about labor day. and because i want to pat myself on the k babb, breaking my arm doing it, take a look at glw >> i saw that earlier. i was thinking of you from yesterday. >> bang. 9% to the upside that's great if you own the stock. if you own these option, you've got a huge return because these options were trading right around 105 i think yesterday when they entered and they're trading you know through i think 290 or something like that
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that's why we trade them >> yep >> that is indeed. give me a thought on this trade. doesn't have b to be specific to the ewz and brazil but emerging markets have obviously gotten hit people like howard marx. right? he likes emerging market equities our audience at delivering alpha favored emerging market. equities over the s&p. what do you think? >> this is an interesting time they're trading a slight premium to their average historically. i think the head winds, which are really well-known, which are potentially stronger dollar rising rates, those obviously have historically being bad times for emerging markets. the scare in may of 2013 what happened and kind of the sell offs they're underperforming year to date i do believe if you think this cyclical recovery stays in tact.
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they can recover assess the possible trobabletie. i think these thireats potentially real >> the ten year, the interest rate differential is really causing havoc on the dollar. it's so much correlation there and i think the until we see some movement, you're really betting on cyclicality and growth and right now, i think it's too much. >> let's go to sue hey, sue >> hello, scott hechl, everyone. here's what's happening at the hour the islamic state group has claimed responsibility for a series of deadly attacks and suicide blasts in southern syria which killed dozens of people. they included a motorcycle bomber who struck a busy venlg b tabl market. and an immigrant held for
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deportation after he delivered pizza has been released. he walked out of an immigration detention facility in new jersey and as you can see there, he was greeted with hugs from his wife and two young daughters. >> craft heinz is recalling about 7,000 cases of cheese dip due to concerns of botchulism. affected containers have best buy dates ranging from october of 2018 through january of 2019. and more heart ache for the mets fans. star outfielder yohan is will be sur surgery on both feet an mri showed bone calcifications in both heels we wish him a speedy recovery. back to you. >> wow crackers yesterday cheese today >> what's next
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>> i don't know. >> basically taking all of josh's food groups >> oh, come on don't pick on josh >> already on the way back sue, thank you >> tough group >> it's tough. >> we have four more trades straight ahead in the blitz. ups, coca-cola, waste management the home builders. first though, griffith thatbills a look >> he's out again and you pick on the cheese whiz what is that zpl crackers one day and cheese the next let's deal with what's really important. >> cookies today, tomorrow what is it >> we'll know tomorrow >> moving ahead, he said deal or no deal, the president meets with the european commission chief to talk trade in less than an hour. will they be able to put their differences aside and accomplish
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something in plus, why today could be the most important day for biogen in years and take a look at this stock today's mystery chart up more than 80% this year here's a hint. will it keep delivering? we'll be talk iing to the ceo about earnings coming up lfmeept bk ter this see that's funny, i thought you traded options. i'm not really a wall street guy. what's the hesitation? eh, it just feels too complicated, you know? well sure, at first, but jj can help you with that. jj, will you break it down for this gentleman? hey, ian. you know, at td ameritrade, we can walk you through your options trades step by step until you're comfortable. i could be up for that. that's taking options trading from wall st. to main st. hey guys, wanna play some pool? eh, i'm not really a pool guy. what's the hesitation? it's just complicated. step-by-step options trading support from td ameritrade
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>> tell me about coca-cola >> coming off earnings they had a nice, strong number the volumes were off, but they're getting away from sugared drinks that's a real key. i think this momentum continues to move to the upside and you get the dividend >> waste management. up 6%. >> that was key, judge it's up about a% year to date. turning over about 2.2 million shares >> hoemd builders. etf. hxb is down 5% this week >> it's down about 15% for the year as well the consumption trends are positive income is rising earnings were reasonably good. i think if you look at it technically, it tells you now is the time to buy. the it's going to be b a dwraet trade. >> dollar is on track for its first negative month sints march. how the futures traders are
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playing that next. fees? what did you have in mind? i don't know. $4.95 per trade? uhhh and i was wondering if your brokerage offers some sort of guarantee? guarantee? where we can get our fees and commissions back if we're not happy. so can you offer me what schwab is offering? what's with all the questions? ask your broker if they're offering $4.95 online equity trades and a satisfaction guarantee. if you don't like their answer, ask again at schwab. who would have guessed? an energy company helping cars emit less. making cars lighter, it's a good place to start, advanced oils for those hard-working parts. fuels that go further so drivers pump less. improving efficiency is what we do best. energy lives here.
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this is futures now. we're looking at the dollar today. still on track to turn its first negative month since march this move comes even when treasury is on the line. >> i think part of the problem is that yields have not gotten above 3% that's not a surprise. if you look at the ur o currency, trading in either a 116 or 117 handle since the middle of may, may 15th specifically, but we are now at the bottom of range, 94.36 is the 50-day moving a average so this is a range that you can trade. >> jim, we saw the rally in april, but since then, the collar has been consolidating. what's the next level you're looking for? >> scott mentioned the range we've been in since mid may. ton 19th, we tried to take it to
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the upside and were rejected and came back down to me, that's a negative sign, so now i'm looking at he said 94.36 is where it last was if it goes below 94, that will be b the sign of weakness i'm looking for and i think it would be a quick trip down to 93 i know shthat's not a huge move but the start of bigger weakness sfwl good stuff. futures now back with the full show tomorrow at 1:00 p.m. eastern time scott wapner, back to you. >> thank you very much next, your chance to ask the traders your questions go to cnbc.com/halftime. tweet us at halftime report. we are back in two minutes this is my headquarters. this is where i trade and manage my portfolio. since i added futures, i have access to the oil markets and gold markets. okay.
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to learn more about the community wildfire safety program and how you can help keep your home and community safe, visit pge.com/wildfiresafety we're back on "the halftime report." traders are answering your questions now. first up, ronald in new jersey asks what is going on with jetblue. the stock is down 23% this year. pete. >> they're at 52-week lows as we speak. we talk about a lot of the big names and i know surat has a bunch of these i own delta right now. i choose to own them over some of the other names like a jetblue because there's better potential there and fuel costs will be a problem, i think, going forward. >> graham in minneapolis wants to know if electronic arts is at its peak or if there is more upside ahead
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doc? >> still more upside i don't own it but as you know i've owned it for a good part of 2018 you've got both credit suisse with a 155 target, piper with a 160 target yesterday we had aggressive buying at the 144 strike in the calls. so take that and i think it goes significantly higher than where it is here. >> wally wants to know the trade on visa ahead of its earnings. >> i like this company i think it's one you want to own for a couple more years. i wouldn't do anything other than hold it if you own it, and buy it even before. >> thanks for your questions, keep them coming send them to cnbc.com/halftime there you go you can tweet us as well @halftimereport use #askhalftime next, from one billionaire investor to another, warren buffett's words for lee cooperman. plus, your final trades. "halftime" is back in two minutes.
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by to discuss the decision to convert his hedge fund into a family office. we asked many heavyweights in the industry about comments about what lee has meant to the industry itself. many sent in their comments. it turns out warren buffett saw the show and wrote this to mr. cooperman. hi, lee. you were terrific on cnbc today. i think i know exactly the emotions you experienced and the reasoning you followed since i had done somewhat the same thing in 1969. the one thing i can guarantee you is that your parents would be extraordinarily pleased at the course you have followed and are going to continue to follow in life. example can be powerful. at the giving pledge we have a disproportionately low number of people who have made their fortunes in wall street. you can be a powerful influence in having them rethink their priorities i hope you make use of the moral podium on which you stand. i agree with you that i didn't
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ask for enough when i called on you to pledge 50%, and i'm glad you are correcting for my error. best regards, warren we thank mr. buffett very much for letting us share that with all of you of course it was lee cooperman who said the following yesterday. he said i told warren i'm asking for half is not enough i intend to give it all away and to several organizations in which lee has been especially philanthropic over the years that was a neat little bow to put on the story that we did yesterday in our visit with lee. rob, you know lee well may have invested with him in the past. >> i have. successfully. >> but i know he means an awful lot to you as well. >> he's a long-time friend, partner, mentor. he's a world class guy in every way. he stands for everything that is right about this business and this industry. he deserves to go out on top,
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and he is absolutely doing that. even though i promise you i know how hard he works, he's going to be working every single day diligently with a family office. you know, i love him and he knows it. >> i don't think any of us doubt that he's still going to be getting after it let's do final trades. pete, what have you got for us. >> e-trade we see option activity out there. i like the financials anyway many of those names in that area are working well i think e-trade is the best. >> doc. >> caesars, czr. they were buying next week friday expiring 12 calls with the stock just under that. i bought it during the show. >> rob. >> xlf i think this financial trade, this rotation into financials is going to continue and i think you can own it, off a little today. >> you certainly must be looking at the 10-year, right, getting over 3% maybe gives another boost to a sector that seems to have woken up. >> that's right. >> surat.
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>> an all favorite, qualcomm today is the day they decide whether china approves the deal or not if they don't approve it, qualcomm will buy back 30 billion shares. >> you own it. >> i've owned it for a long time. that does it for us. "power lunch" begins now i'm melissa lee. president trump minutes away from meeting with european commission president gene-claude juncker. another flood of earnings numbers coming in strong but lots of warnings about rising costs on potential tariff impacts. what it means for the markets, straight ahead. check out this red-hot mystery stock. it is up double-digits just this hour and more than 90% this year will it keep delivering? we will ask the ceo. "power lunch" starts right now welcome to "power
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