tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC December 10, 2018 12:00pm-1:00pm EST
happy and also is probably structured so that it does not jeopardize qualcomm's licensing as well. >> tim, thank you. as always, good to talk to you >> thank you >> mike, we'll see you on "closing bell. "jon, see you soon let's get to "the half." i'm scott wapner stocks under heavy selling pressure again this hour and now the new trades suggesting even more pain could be ahead it is noon and this is "the halftime report. >> the dow is again in a correction on pace for its first quarter. the nasdaq, its worst in the decade it's time to take a risk and put money to work. jim cramer joins the team today. plus, just how bruised is apple? the answers now as "the halftime report" begins on monday, december the 10th.
>> good to have you with us on this monday. here to debate and trade the biggest stories of the day, joe terranova, jon najarian, jim cramer, the host of "mad money." we begin, where else, the market stocks took a mid morning turn lower. they continued that slide. the dow hitting correction territory. apple's continued slide, more weakness in the banks. some brexit developments all dragging the majors into the red. you flagged some trading for us saying people are betting on this going lower >> in particular today, scott. they came in aggressively buying the december 260 puts. now this is what the index at about 264 in the spdy. they bought close to 40,000 of these that ran them up to $2.30 as the index fell. these increased in value and i tried to change everything about the way i was doing things, scott, even put my pants
on one leg at a time to try out what everybody else does every day. >> tmi >> sorry about that. there is just an you a it will lot of pessimism in the market right here these aren't the only puts that were being bought. the good news if somebody wants to look for it, this is an option that expires today. they've already made their money on this one. so, in other words, maybe they bet it breathes, the market, that is, personification i will let them breathe and then maybe they get back to work. there's a lot of index protection >> the market, jim, can't seem to get out of its own way lately >> the people at home, how if you're buying this, how is the other side hedging other than knock the market down? >> as we know the market was down over 200 last night, right, jim? it came rallying all the way back, scott, to the beginning of the day -- >> is that the worst possible? >> it was, it was. and they let them have it with both barrels >> you're always saying that as well >> i don't want people to lose
money. we were down 50 and then down seven and down three it's going to go up. it's going to go up. there's no positive news and it's going to go up. there was not a single positive piece of information >> two humble things in a row, you were up at 4:00 a.m. and worked out i did neither of those things. >> i just don't want people -- none of uts want people to be picked off and that's what i felt happened. >> nasdaq direction, the dow goes into correction >> i want to echo what lee said in a fabulous interview last week down $4 on 170,000 shares.
it's become one of these markets that is too treacherous. if it's too treacherous there's not going to be anyone standing there and buying they're not going to be two-thirds of the volume, not allowed to be. so i just find that the direction -- the volatility is negative we use the term volatility when we should be saying selling. volatility is making the bids withdraw people will say, jim, where were you when it was going up i didn't like it then either >> plenty of people think the volatility is not only here to stay, it will continue for a long while let's listen to what ptj said and we can react it's about volatility. >> i think we'll see a lot more volatility it's really easy to say i'm
bullish, i'm bearish i see a two-sided market i think in the next year will be from where we are today ten down and ten up >> okay. so your head will continue to spin for many months ahead >> a lot of different places end up in the same place, a lot of volatility we've talked about that. that is going to continue. it is going to happen because you have central banks that are stepping back. to what jim and jon were talking about, listen, in the market place corporations have stepped back they've stepped back because of the fed, because of trade and tariff let's call the market what this is this is a trading market people are looking at technicals right now, pointing to the break below the october 29th low probably reasons why you see further selling. the longer term investment dollars i see on the asset management side the entire asset management industry is being placed like active management is going to be dead the dow jones index is down 30%
in the last six weeks. candidly, for me, if i know this is a trading environment, i bought calls in the qqqs, 161.50 calls. why? a tremendous amount of negative sentiment in the marketplace >> tell me what gets rid -- >> there's going to be a bounce. >> what gets rid of the negative ent sentiment? >> short term you need a new high if you don't get a new high you're wasting your time i think ptj is on to something probably means what technicians would call an expansion of the range. now we know it 2600 is not the bottom you're in a drawdown from the late september highs on the s&p, and then you look sector wise.
xlf is straight down never seen anything like it. it's pure sentiment. without a new high in the broader average, the s&p 500, you're not going to get improving sentiment for any stock or sector. it is a different environment. things have changed in terms of sentiment and maybe that's a precursor to a fundamental change i'm not seeing big numbers come down, i'm not seeing deterioration particularly strong if you say, well, i'm a fundamentals guy, okay, that's great. fundamentals will not move as quickly. this is on psychology. if you see an uptick, then we'll have a different conversation. >> this is the conversation we had with lee cooperman let's listen to what lee told us it's really about psychology
versus fundamentals and what you as an investor should be doing now. >> in my 50 years of doing this i look at the economy. i look at inflation, at monetary policy, i look at valuation, i look at bonds versus stocks, and everything comes up, you know, saying it's a great buying opportunity. >> how do you deal with that >> i think lee is right. every time you buy something, you do get hurt. i understand the trading mentality. it's almost unfathomable they go down, they go down, they go down there's no bids. >> 20% below the january highs on no change in fundamentals >> so much cash. >> and the nonbanks. they aren't as irresponsible as people think >> lowered interest rates are a fundamental negative for banks >> lower interest rates.
>> two weeks ago i was busy panicking about interest rates >> you know exactly what i'm talking about. >> i do. >> there is no better cure than high rates themselves. you have the situation now where the ten year backs off if that number rings a bell, that was the panic high from the taper tantrum. five years later we failed at that level again people not worrying so much about, oh, no, the fed is going too far, et cetera now you say what's the bull case it's a stock by stock basis. with good dividends and continued buybacks, maybe it's
not for every investor i could own that thing 15% lower than where it was and nothing has changed. >> i agree buff to be willing to buy more >> that's the best advice. >> are we -- is the market too obsessed with the economy? i think it's upset with the idea fed chairman powell got it wrong. >> or went too fast. >> or that they would prolong a cycle long in the tooth, that it was going to extend it even further, that it was going to lead to greater spending, higher earnings, higher stock prices. >> a lot of that could have happened, scott, except the president chose his battles. he chose to have this trade war.
china didn't say let's throw this in their eye. they didn't do that. we've been doing it. >> we're fighting back i've been in the peter navarro camp we're fighting back. when i read about what this cfo did, the canadians don't do our bidding. >> the article goes chapter and verse through every promise made starting with repatriation which is not -- >> cash payments haven't meaningfully increased >> do you think the others actually believe that would happen or do you think it was a payback to the donor class because they wanted lower classes? >> is it slowing more dramatically as a result of these things not happening that are laid out >> i've seen higher earnings per
share and buybacks they're looking at the data but the companies i follow have actually used it for the most part >> they're paying down debt, too. >> paying down debt. that's why i don't -- one of the reasons i want to say you should buy the market is balance sheets are so great lee is talking balance sheets. we all know there have been times interest rates have been 4%, 5%, or 6% and the balance sheets are bad >> corporate debt has exploded and a third of the investment grade corporate debt index is a possible candidate meaning a down tick in the economy all of a sudden you'll have ratings to jump they're triple-b minus it's not the financials. i agree with you
>> bank of america is so solid >> whatever you do, don't look at the industrials >> let's add another voice to the conversation liz ann saunders at charles schw schwab good to see you again. >> hi, guys. >> i hope you've heard our conversation >> yes >> give us your view >> we have the view much like paul jones and it's comforting that we will see a continuation of this volatility i think the range could be wider than up ten, down ten. if you think of path of least resistance and expectations mid single digits, we haven't seen a significant haircut to energy and energy related sectors for the collapse in oil prices or to the export oriented for the strength in the dollar
i think the path of least resistance is down on earnings which makes the possibility of an earnings recession higher than an economic recession in 2019 we know what happened for four quarters from the second half of 2015 to the first half of 2016 we didn't have an epic bear market but it was ugly nonetheless. >> do you worry that we are about to enter a more prolonged bear market? we've had a rolling bear market since the beginning of the year, undeniably so. not that the s&p is down 20%, but there are a whole lot of stocks within there that are down by that or even greater amounts. >> to your point about rotating bear markets we've seen it across asset classes there's a necessary tiff of reprising asset classes. whether we can continue to do it on a rolling basis as opposed to
taking the whole thing down, that's a function of a couple things one, what the length of runway is between now and the next recession. if we go on the total amount of imports from china, then more than a percentage point off of gdp. if you're back into growth next year, that's a big hit that one percentage point is the math of the tariff amount divided into gdp whether it's through the confidence channels or the capex channels, and through the inflation channels you have to add to that 1% if we don't get an agreement on trade. >> it's good to see you as always >> hi, jim >> i want to talk about your analysis on the gdp that are totally spot on.
what happened to the s.e.c. as someone as a watchdog for the individual investor, someone who wants to buy stocks and is frightened out of it, why do we not reconsider the rule? why are the institutions not clamoring for what lee said? it would mean more money in theoretically. >> i can't get inside the head of the s.e.c i think a lot of the regulatory changes to the benefit of individual investors in terms of just the information flow and the inability for analysts to get prime data before the rest of the public, but i think the bigger problem is the mechanics of the market and the machine driven trading has just meant it's a much more difficult playing field for individual investors. our message has been don't try to shorten time horizons to nano seconds because that's a losing proposition. whether the regulatory bodies could try to help with things
like the uptick rule, unfortunately, what we have seen you tend to have to go through pretty significant errors of carnage before you get the adjustments that probably should have come in advance we think it is a more difficult environment and as much as they think that suggests they have to take more of a trading approach we think to their detriment not benefit. >> joe mentioned individual investors clearly had a little bit too much turbulence for their appetite do you think a rate hike next week is a formality at this point, or do you think that is slowly going to -- or has to be quickly since it's next week if the market continues in this kind of upset, how do you think about the fed? >> i was at lunch at which powell spoke in addition to the things we've all talked about and the implications for the market i do think one of the things he said was important which is that financial market volatility
alone isn't going to be a decider. whether enough volatility and enough weakness kicks in such that they view financial system stability as at risk i think december is still a pretty high likelihood i believe even the futures market as of today doesn't even have a full rate hike priced in for 2019 unless we see the market come off the rails is still going to happen >> we think. we'll talk to you soon so, jim, the fed is in this box, right? it needs to hike so that it can c cut. >> they don't need to hike >> i don't agree with that at
all. >> they have to hike or they have no credibility. >> it's a political issue. >> they made such a mistake -- >> why do they have to >> then we think there's something wrong. we give them one more hike and then we have to wait. >> so they're going to hike with the price of crude downward revisions we saw on friday, a miss on this month's jobs numbers and s&p 500 that literally is up five, down five from week to week. they're forced into a box. >> you have to raise rates you're debating this, by the way, with the guy who is sounding the alarms from the top of the mountain. that was the day after the powell -- >> a long way from neutral >> i said he didn't do any homework
once again, they laughed at me like they laughed at me in 2007. they refuse to believe that some of us do more homework than they do they own the media >> i'm saying that there are those who believe they have to hike so that they're in a position to cut -- >> i've heard that it's the worst thing >> honestly, it's almost like a louis carroll verse in "through the looking glass. there is nothing to do with their mandate that says we have to get up to a nominal rate level if things get bad. >> are you thinking how much
pain the president is willing to take on the market he views as his barometer. if the market continues to go down, if the trade continues to push the economy lower, is that the wild card in all of this >> they don't blink? you can't throw this guy out he needs a senate confirmation >> the pain is going to be too hard to take >> you can't get a fed chair confirmed after throwing one out for hiking rates you didn't like that's not a thing that will happen quickly >> he can blink on trade >> you could be right. if the market continues to go down and the economy continues to worsen do you think he will sit back >> the china apologists? >> he will say it's a win. >> fire navarro? >> he's not going to sit on his hands.
>> he'll say i won >> that could lift the market higher there's another part that we're missing and that's the balance sheet. the fed could back off on reducing the size of the balance sheet. that is adding to the pressure that we're witnessing right now by having these hikes and the perception that this further hikes into 2019. >> they should have sold first and didn't >> jim is so right when he says a lot of the young folks, 27-year-old jim referenced might be putting the numbers together for chairman powell. >> every time they did i sat here laughing on the desk out loud
no way they're not doing two next year. this is weeks ago. i think that they are very unlikely -- goldman pulled it back today they did that. >> better late than never. >> nobody believed them anymore. everybody said you're out of touch. >> the best case for the fed not doing anything this month the last two crises were not caused by wage inflation. there was systemic risk and this massive explosion from the telecom media and technology companies. neither of those things were in play this time what we have is 3.1% year over year wage growth which is a good thing, was not the thing that tipped the economy into recession in 2000 or in 2007 it's not systemic risk to have
people making more money i don't think the fed has to go. the president saying the fed shouldn't counteract what they're doing on fiscal policy, i may not like the president trying to dictate rates but it doesn't mean he's wrong. >> the fed will kill the economy. why can't people make extra? >> i agree >> i don't know why i picked les moonves. he has people on staff who should be proxy. >> maybe not the best choice but we get your point. >> there's two s.e.c.s >> here is what we'll do >> get out of this, scott. >> elon musk, by the way, says he has no respect for the s.e.c. >> he's talking about he likes the big ten. >> let me step away for two minutes. i want to talk about apple, what its slide means. we're just getting started on "the halftime report." next up, the big call on one
big tech company one top firm just called this stock the best idea for 2019 and the traders have a lot to say. >> our partners on kensho on what happens a week after the dow drops 4% or more in a week it's happened 30 times in eight years. and when it does, the markets usually pick up ground over the next five sessions for more go to cnbc.com/kensho pn ahealftime report" with scott waernd t traders is back in two minutes
hi, i'm jon najarian from "the halftime report." if you'd like to send us a question, we'd be happy to answer it. send it to cnbc.com/halftime and we'll answer those questions at the end of the show. >> go to cnbc.com/halftime or getting us on twitter with the #askhalftime >> jim, what do you make of this now there's a debate over which phones, if any, are banned you're reporting on the ground literally. there's photo evidence that suggests the phones are still being sold >> they are. it's another issue now for
investors to deal with >> this is a broken stock of a great company. i think at this point you are getting the service stream as you wanted was it worth an appreciable amount toward the market cap it's 12 times earnings let's say it's 13 times earnings you may agree or disagree with me because of the convert, the equity >> it's not a pristine balance sheet. i would like to issue a doji alert on apple this could be a meaningful turning point in the stock today. here is the situation. the stock opened at 165, down to
1 163.33 now you're back at 165 the buyers came in where they should have and they battled all the way back up to the opening price. what that signifies is that the buyers have come in and changed the trend. the stock has to close here. if you're a fundamental investor and it's not a doji signifying the trend change, this is the most profitable, 14 trailing you are still buying maybe the best company ever at a huge discount to where it was trading. i like it for investors and fundamental investors. there's room to make a purchase
and have to make a lower purchase in the near future. >> you have these companies that are growing very slowly. at this point i really think you have to look at apple as a consumer product company >> luxury. >> and you have to pick some up. that was a great call at 20 and i made it at 50. i don't want to trade it >> what do you make of what josh said about the technicals? >> they're not with us on this the stock is back above $165 >> unless we actually know that
the chinese communist party said we're not going to let them sell any more iphones and they have issued another injunction years ago, then i think that this is a new story that will evaporate. qualcomm has been adamant that they are talking -- >> with you on "mad money. ". >> apple is saying tear not talking. at what point does it have to sell at nine times earnings? >> it's not like that's their best market. there's always been one and now you've had $280 billion ripped out of the market cap. so let's not act like the street is waking up to this as a risk it could already be in the stock. >> they're acting as if the $11 billion in chinese sales this previous quarter is going to
evaporate next it is really derailing pictures of people buying them today. >> big buying. huge call buying december 170 calls the doji buyers were coming in >> my wife said what are you doing with the dojis >> are you going to join them? >> i did did i bought calls and i bought more stock. >> i'm trying to get the level >> at 164.05 we bought more stock. >> we're talking about a trend reversal candle. it's a big deal. you understand the inputs are technical.
this maybe changes that sentiment. that's what's happened maybe this is the kind of turnaround in an individual stock that could mean bigger things >> it's nicely off the lows. you still have the pile on from the research community, right? >> they loved it at 220. >> that's the point i'm trying to get at. they cut the target to 200 >> it is a process that is unfolding over the last eight weeks. when you look at hedge funds they shed the allocation towards apple. >> the stock just took back 166. the analyst community, who is
always late, is going to lower the price target what does that do? it creates a perfect setup for 2019 i think what's important is when you look at where the ten-year treasury was, approaching 3 1/4, that's an environment where growth type stocks get challenged the ten year is back to 285. what do i want do i want value or sustainable growth earnings in a lower rate environment? i know the answer. we all know the answer on the desk >> plus buybacks, dividends and quality. >> apple checks all the boxes for that but you have to allow for the final couple of weeks -- i agree with jim you might have a doji. i still think you buy both, judge. >> you know what they say about two. >> you buy these when you cannot when you have to to jim's point you don't chase it up at 220, 230.
we were buying it, pete talked about it with you, scott, for unusual activity they announce the buyback. these are companies that will continue to buy back shares. >> how badly does the market need pap ? >> i think it's really important. apple is representative of what's going on. whether it be the multiple, the faith in the way that -- >> how about the biggest stock in atfs, on the dow, on the s&p, the biggest stock on the nasdaq. >> this is the environment we're in let's talk about apple >> we'll put a doji picture on
it >> it's huge the volume is explosive. positive within 20 minutes that's how this stuff works. >> is this the halftime show that turned the market around? talk about alice in wonder land. >> trying to identify which stocks are going to work, when you look at s&p 500 companies, companies in the s&p you could identify as a strong balance sheet company, 6%. companies that have domestic sales up 6%. companies with international sales, they're down 5% that's the exact environment that we're in right now. those conditions aren't going to change >> as apple rises, that boat is helping everything >> that makes perfect sense. you can't have the biggest third
biggest in free fall and expect to get traction in nvidia. >> the algoes are good best idea? >> this is the lowest risk tech stock. the price of drams is coming down this is one chuck robb bins has changed into an internet of things, cyber security this stock barely got hit when the market came down i know that apple everyone is looking at a better buy >> is it government -- a combination of government and telecom? >> it's internet of things
>> a large enterprise. >> my wife spent six hours because she was hacked on her phone. hacking has affected all of us a fantastic suite that is second to none and they did it because chuck put it together. he's remarkable. what's really remarkable, he's a falcons fan and comes to work every day. other than the good earnings he has and great wife and kids. he's a falcons fan >> let's go to contessa brewer with the news headlines for us the market has moved off its lows what else is going on? >> let's get you caught up on
market moving news theresa may has postponed parliament's vote on the divorce from the european union to avoid a shattering defeat. this is a decision that throws her brexit plans into chaos. >> if we held the vote tomorrow the deal would be rejected by a significant margin we will not proceed to divide the house at this time >> winners of the medicine physi physics, chemistry and economics received their awards today in stock holm no winner of the literature prize this year. utility crews are working to get the lights back on in the south. close to 180,000 people are without power. that's your cnbc news update the literature prize, maybe they don't have enough practice everyone is tweeting instead of
writing. >> contessa brewer, thank you. options traders could be about to turn around you do not want to miss jon's unusual activity straight ahead. we'll show you the s&p now the market has come off its lows of the day there's the s&p. you can see the move higher. still down by 19 points, three quarters of a percent but not s d iwanoalt s t l that long ago. ng lies beyond the tech sector. it's about technology transforming every sector. ♪ at pgim, our bottom-up approach uses a technology lens to identify long-term winners. from energy... to real estate... to retail. finding such opportunities for alpha is the true value of active investing. and around the world, you have a partner in that pursuit. pgim: the global investment management businesses of prudential. at fidelity, our online u.s. equity trades are just $4.95. so no matter what you trade, or where you trade,
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welcome back we want to show you once again shares of apple, which have moved well off their lowest levels of the session, and that's helped the overall market that's quite a move. noticing a technical trend change is, i guess, the best way, josh, you would describe it >> that's exactly right. it's got to close above the 165 level where it opened to qualify as what technicians would refer to as a doji, a change in direction in the stock it's been in the down trend since september. it's paid its dues
that doesn't mean an immediate return to where it was but i think it's had a lot of damage and maybe the buyers decided, okay, this is the level where we're willing to take whatever risk might be left in the intermediate term. >> you mentioned the open price was right at $165. the stock by the numbers that i have got as low as $163.33 the high is north of here just by a few pennies so, jim, we'll see what happens here but, if anything, it's helping pull the market off its worst levels. >> i would say -- i'd love to hear from everybody but if this day manages to finish in the black there will be a lot of people who say we finally have what we wanted, the whoosh down, the capitulation down. >> do you know why i think that's right utilities got smacked. >> and they've been the winner >> they whacked the safety stocks that's what a wash is.
nothing matters. sell them all. >> yes >> and you're selling against all the bad news including brexit >> sorry i am sick of brexit. people don't even know what brexit is. i had the brexit at mcdonald's this weekend it's a value pack. >> that's been an extraordinary move hang on, please, sorry you can make that face all you want apple is now positive. >> i said, joe, get your shine box. >> when the wolves bite the apple. >> that's right. every now and then the wolf has to bite. >> i know. >> joe, now you're up. thanks what are the lows? >> not enough. >> if you're a bear, what satisfaction >> 2615. >> so basically -- >> bearish technical break below the target has failed. >> tell me about your calls.
>> they are in the money right now. >> you have made attempts to buy nasdaq calls in the past i'm wondering because of of the overall context of the market, buying the dips hasn't worked? >> no, but trading -- >> let's see what happens now. >> trading has worked because up at 2800, john, that's where you and i talked about selling out of things like square. we talked about selling out of qqq calls. again, you're playing these technical trading ranges and the market, i think josh brought this up before, cannot get above 2800 and now you're using 2,600 on the down side and looking at a break below 2,600. that's not seeing any follow through. >> thank you for that. >> a viewer question coming in it's on fedex, asking if the traders would buy that stock after controversial downgrade. jim cramer and the desk will
answer that and more they will do it next dow is off its low apple is now positive. tweet us or use th the #askhalftime the world is alive as you can see, this time of the year is so much more than a bow and a tree. (morgan vo) those who give their best, deserve the best. get up to a $1,000 credit on select models now during the season of audi sales event. ♪
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all right. we're back unusual activity davita >> unusual activity on this one. fairly far out of the money but they bought cheap calls that's why i followed them because on this dip i wanted something cheap. this fit the bill. >> let's rip through some questions. joe, got one for you it's on fedex. we mentioned the downgrade
enrique from mexico city would you buy fedex after the downgrade. >> i would bit ups wait until you get a negative guidance. express ceo david cunningham leaving. that's a big surprise. that indicates something might be amiss in the guidance >> 57 years old. why he is retiring >> john, one for you from janet. on the transports. are the airlines and cruise companies a good investment at this time with crude oil being solo >> certainly believe so. big input for these guys the biggest input. bigger than employment is the crude oil. jet aal is the one i would buy >> josh brown, duprey from singapore. twitter looking strong what do you do >> i distinctly remember last year people who were shareholders they liked facebook
because of their data and their audience well let me tell you a question because this one is up 55% over the last year and facebook is down 25% if you would have said that in december of 2017 people would have said no way is that what 2018 would look like it is strong getting stronger held up better than any of the fang names i like it and i'm long >> jimmy, adobe. >> one of my cloud kings he's doing fantastic buy that stock that's one that's come down a lot and doing great. two others tonight you want to look at. spunk had a remarkable quarter rich hume, we'll get real pulse on tech. let's go back to apple let's come full circle show that stock. it's not often, jim, that you see apple shares move six bucks in a session
>> congratulations it went up because we all felt it was overdone. i got to tell you, josh started it about talking about a technical situation. we all felt it washed out. >> it's a buying panic >> inexpensive stock i'll do some work on the lawsuit. qualcomm think it's game over, apple say it's game on >> we'll do some final trades so don't go anywhere. joe >> let's just go straight with the qs nasdaq is a buy. >> i own apple, twitter. i don't need them to go up today. it's nice that they are. they work long term. >> very important marvel does a great job at the lows. that group was -- you can turn it around. >> it has been bad principle is why people say fed back off john >> american miles per hour aal. we talked about it based on that
question during the show we had unusual activity just last week friday they were buying the upside calls. i think this one goes higher >> ever been on a flying that was not extremely full from american >> buying people off flights >> great stuff guys thanks so much. "power lunch" starts right now >> thank you very much i'm tyler mathison welcome to "power lunch" stocks are stage a come back a number of factors driving the volatility today and we'll break it down for you. apple one of the stocks helping this afternoon's rebound but a major setback for it's iphones over in china. goldman sachs cutting its outlook for rate hikes and one of the world's biggest hedge fundtitans says he doesn't expect any in 2019 what the smart money sees and how he is betting on i want as "power lunch" begins right now