tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC December 26, 2018 12:00pm-1:00pm EST
2350 or so >> it seemed people were bracing to see if there was another one of these selling waves that came into the market. we didn't get it and the market blasted. s&p back to where it was 11:00 a.m. monday. >> shaking that off. >> good to have you. let's get to sully and "the half." all right. thank you very much, carl. welcome to "the halftime report." scott is off i am brian the final week of the year may tell us a lot about trading next year >> stocks, bonds, commodities, all down in 2018 on this final week of the year, our attention turns to what could turn around in 2019. wall street has a long list of concerns from washington to the factories of china with the government shutdown heading for a second week, the
traders are ready to debate the best place for risk and reward guggenheim's scott warner. "the halftime report" starts right now. if you were hoping for a slow holiday week, i'm sorry it has already been crazy. monday the worst day for the markets ever before christmas. aside from that it's guide to have you with us on this wednesday. here to discuss, debate and, more importantly, trade all the biggest stories, joe terranova, steven weiss, jon najarian, and our special guest the ceo and fund manager at gilman hill asset management and just before we're about to go on trying to throw me off, najarian, you know, sully, the market has done a 600-point roundtrip today. it could be a wild couple of hours. to what do you ascribe this incredible volatility lately >> i will focus in on, brian,
all the funds liquidating in the year end and all the people that want to match up the profits they've taken. is their tax law telling there certainly is a lot of these folks that are underperforming the averages and getting resemgss and anticipating redemptions, there's a lot of that happening right now. this was one of the most constructive mornings despite the sell yot 288, up 330. that 700-point swing is the most positive thing any of us have seen in the last month of trading. >> one of these guys who is deeply off the record but a real market participant said they didn't want to go up and now they're being forced to liquidate. is that what you are hearing
>> not hearing the same thing now. can't blame hedge funds for this >> not blaming >> i know you're not cfas -- >> let me come to that >> so hedge funds, it's 30-day notice minimally 30-day notice, most have 60 day. 90-day notice. they know what redemptions they'll have to pay out in january are. let's take that off the table in terms of mutual funds. tax laws happen much earlier but you're seeing some belated tax law. what you see is from kevin hastert saying powell's job is 100% safe. you didn't have trump come out and say it, not that it would matter because he's gone back on his word he sent out one of his team to say it so he could back track. to me that was the reason the market took another leg down
you see a lot of the relative value traders, the algos, which surprise up to 50% of daily volume moving the market >> there was, joe, and i don't want to put you on the spot, there was an excellent article by the team at the "wall street journal" last night but the effect of computerized trading, these big, passive funds we're not throwing etfs under the bus. momentum begets momentum do you believe that and, "b," if so, does that mean that the market will at some point make a comeback because the momentum goes the other way as well >> well, momentum has become an investment strategy we talked about throughout the summer and in september we had the conversation about pairing back the allocation towards momentum. does momentum come back? different strategies get favored over others. i don't think that makes them right or wrong you see the momentum names come back once again and that's positive if you're looking for
stabilization in the market. to steven's point i think there has been over the last three or four days a tremendous amount of missteps on the part of the administration in its communication with the capital markets and that caused, i think, the violent sell-off we saw on christmas eve i think they're trying now to comfort the markets to borrow the phrase make stocks great again. that right now is a little bit of desperation but comfort as well but i think overall all you can look for is for stability. you want to close this day out up 350 to up 500 that's the first good price line in a while. >> what if we end negative like the other ones have the last two weeks >> then it's a sign of no stability. >> these are all good points i know you talked to clients directly you're going to say, well,
there's powell and algos and hedge funds. they don't care. they're portfolio was up higher than it was 30 days ago. what are you telling them? >> i think it's easy to get lost in the algos and the tradewar. what i'm telling my clients and reminding myself constantly, at the bottom of all of this in our portfolios are real companies that make real products with real services and are real people and general mills where i'm still buying my lucky charms -- >> great pick. >> and it's at&t and it's ford and gm there are real companies here. whether the market is fluctuating, these are real companies that don't care what their stock price is saying. what's my goal is it to compete and let my ego
and worth get stoked >> i hear you. i want to follow up with jenny i get you. i totally get it and i don't know any -- we've all been a bunch of holiday parties and you talk to people i don't know anybody that says, yeah, i just sold everything it feels like the market is a bust and the people, the real people, your clients, are just on the bus and the driver has gone nuts. how do you get off >> i don't know. i'm keeping my clients, i'm holding on to the wheel tight. >> she never gets off. that's the answer. as simple as that. >> i think you do a lot of destructive damage what are you in this for are you in it for three years, five years, 15 years, building long-term wealth and protecting it are you in it for the income stream if that's the case, are you going to be the genius who gets back on 10% lower? the client conversations i had on december 24th, on christmas eve, i had one client who
couldn't take it anymore and he's like i think this market is broken i'm done i'm out. >> see, that's my point. there are people jumping off the bus while it's moving. >> yeah, yeah. and this is a super smart dude same day, same time, i have another client, incredibly wealthy, very sophisticated, funded two portfolios with cash, and i couldn't get that money invested fast enough and then i sent out an e-mail to clients and one saying here is what's going on. this is one of the e-mails i get back, i remember how much wealth you saved me in 2008 and 2009 and i'm endlessly grateful and excited to take advantage again. she remembers me keeping her on the bus saved a ton of money and a lot is staying disciplined sorry, thanks for the soapbox. >> everybody is feeling the same way. >> here is what i would say. i have the option of choice. i don't have to be in 100% of the time you do
>> i don't have to i just think it's better >> and that forms your bias. you said you're 100% long all the time you said it now. i don't have to be markets go down and go down for extended periods of time >> hold on >> not hold on it's trite to say they're real companies. everything has a value and what is the value you take a look, you can't tell me this is anywhere near the times if the president were a relative of yours you would be looking at eldercare instead he's the ceo of the most important organization in the world, right and there's mass instability plus you have everything on the other side of the mountain you have tightening rates. we're see clos tighten, the fed -- not the fed but the treasury come out with an asinine call to the banks. do you have enough liquidity
that's panic of course the fed knows what their liquidity is let me get to the other point. >> hustle. we have scott minerd on the phone with limited time. >> you had -- i looked at the gdp numbers, gdp grew in inventories 2.3% we haven't seen that growth in years. it's been from minus 1 and now it's 2.2 why? everybody is buying in advance of more tariffs. what happens as they turn negative on the economy? then you have disinflation because funding inventories, costs a lot of money, to me i don't see the risk/reward. >> let us now bring in the aforementioned scott minerd. he took a break from his holiday to join us on "halftime.
i know we interrupted your holiday. merry christmas. we had to do it. we need your advice. >> i think the market or federal reserve interrupted my holiday >> i feel less bad that's perfect you said the market was at risk of a 40% decline and that recession in 2020 was likely everybody said minerd lost it. the market has gone down a ton your fears look like they're playing out as well. to what do you ascribe this 20% haircut in equities? >> i think there's a con flugs of events here it's virtually a perfect storm we suddenly acknowledged the 800-pound gorilla. we started to see the likes of
general electrics' bonds and pg&e's bonds drop overnight. we finally got focused on the tariff issues. the seasonals took over, brian, in september and october but then the policymakers sort of mishandled everything and we're sitting here today talking about the sell-off, we were down 19% on christmas eve it comes in the wake of powell's statement in relationship to the balance sheet on autopilot clearly we have had one blunder after another, that the system is overlevered, it is fragile. i think the policymakers in washington have exposed a lot of
the weakness >> okay, scott, let me ask you a delicate question then about that >> sure. >> depending on what your point of view may be or what network you're listening to, they will ascribe them to tweets by powell jay powell, some people i talked to said maybe he's not up for the job. do you think that the collection of those people is a negative? together it's not a winning combination? i'm trying to remain apolitical as well on this. >> look, i think that there's just been one blunder after another. i don't want to ascribe it to the individuals, per se, but the acts that they've taken whether it was the chairman of the federal reserve with his comments about autopilot, it was the attack of the president on the chairman, it was the treasury secretary's
announcement that he was calling the banks, i mean, these are all just a series of missteps. i think the end of all of this is the federal reserve will be very, very cautious about allowing this slide that we're in to tern into something systemic i believe the fed will pause monetary policy and stop hiking. i've been on the side of they're going to keep going until they induce a recession they have in wild card event on the table, i think they're going to announce they're going to slow down and any further damage will draw a response >> jon najarian wants to get in for one second but i want to follow up on that. do you think we're going to get no rate hikes in 2019 or the first half, and do you believe they could pause their
quantitative tightening as well? >> brian, i would say it's 50/50 that we get a pause in march depending on what happens with the market and the economy, because we are starting to see weakness in the manufacturing sector we got the richmond pmi. i think there's enough uncertainty here the fed can pause just like it did when oil collapsed in 2015. now will they change the balance sheet policy i really believe they've overdone it. i think the pace is double what it should be the fed may realize it would be in everybody's best interest if they went back and took a hard look at the balance sheet policy and slowed it down >> scott, jon najarian, i'm going to break my neck shaking
it up and down agreeing on all those points when you pointed out pg&e is the fires in california two years in a row with that, right, as well as the dumpster fire that is general electric i think those are separate from the market i think the fed will react and will react with a pause and some sort of qt it was a perfect storm, scott, if you agree you're not going to see mnuchin, the president, and powell making statements publicly like they have the last 72 hours or whatever we're not going to have that many folks making this many miss steps. this can keep spiraling because of the conversations on twitter or which we expect to continue the president to keep tweeting
but not the rest to keep screwing up like this, are we? >> certainly the fed and president williams comments have shown us they're going to be very cautious with communication. i think the treasury secretary given all the noise probably needs to be a little more discreet in how he communicates. as for the president, he has his own style and i wouldn't hazard to think any of the events will tone down his comments >> two questions i don't know if you were listening when i talked about gdp and the component of which inventory was the largest, which was unusual in terms of the strength your thoughts on that and if it is attributable to building in front of potentially more tariffs than the original
tariffs. what normalized gdp would be, number one and number two, you talk to ceos, what do you think their frame of mind is and how worried are you about them pulling back in their budgeting and that impacting the economy further? >> i think the inventory accumulation i agree was an attempt to front run the tariffs. i also think that it's telling us maybe in certain pockets of the economy demand is not as robust as we've been thinking especially when you look at the energy sector. but i do believe that this inventory accumulation will have to be unwound over the course of the year that will cause a drag on gdp. estimates downgraded to 1.8% for next year and he's been really
bullish. as far as the ceos i talked to, nobody wants to make a big capital investment here. uncertainty around the supply chain is holding back capital investment and it's very interesting that the policy uncertainty out of washington is holding back investment just when we introduced the expensing of capital investment which was supposed to stimulate him. we have a lot of head winds in the economy and that will push the fed to the sidelines >> can we dive more into the energy side. i know energy. $240 billion in oil and gas debt that is coming to maturity in the next five years. you've seen the single credit oil and gas companies that are
fueling the shale boom high yield, about 20% of high yield is energy debt have you had any time to dig into the risk? i know the consumers love it is it not a big risk for everything >> look, brian, i think this is going to have a neglective impact on energy bonds as oil continues to decline and, candidly, i'm trying to find a catalyst that will get it to stop going down right now. i can't identify it. just like we saw in 2015 and '16 when oil went down and touched almost $25 a barrel, you know, we saw a lot of stress in the capital markets.
and we saw it cascade into other sectors like the clo market. certainly the clo market is a place which is vulnerable as credit spreads are widening and the leverage loan market has seized up. we are in this period of time where there's very little liquidity. if this goes on long enough that will lead to an inability to refinance debt and we could see a material increase in defaults. >> scott, it's joe thank you for being with us today. the u.s. in the first quarter exhibited strength do you think this federal
reserve gets it and looking to an inflationary environment and qe 2 and that is the true fight that continues for policymakers? >> i think they are alert to the inflation issue and the information that's accumulating is going to weigh more and more on their policy decisions going forward. it's really hard when you consider that pce or core pce, which is what the fed is looking at is showing signs of declining to continue raising interest rates. i'll refer back to ed highman. we'll see it at 1.6% in the next few months with inflation that low, the fed clearly has not fulfilled its mandate to get inflation to 2% and i think they're looking at
the data i think that's one of the reasons i'm becoming more and more confident that they're going to say let's just take a break and watch the data and give the market room to breathe. that should be good for risk assets and we will get what i've been referring to as an indian summer all of a sudden -- >> are you calling the bottom for the equity market, scott >> i think it's near by, brian i would be a buyer more than a seller even if we get a further collapse in prices from here is going to result in the fed announcing it will take action we're close enough to a bottom. >> scott this is jenny harrington i have a question for you. can we get more granular and as
you think about these defaults what specific companies or industries do you think are most at risk and are they at risk because they're the ones dependent on the sub 3% debt for life support >> i have to say my bankers at our firm may get upset if i name companies. i'll stay away from that >> come on >> there are industries that look particularly troubling. brian mentioned energy, of course, but there are other industries that have taken on a lot of leverage in the m&a business a lot of companies in media, for instance that have taken on a lot of leverage to do acquisitions when you look at the telecom space. there's a lot of leverage there. as a matter of fact if you look at the number of single-a and triple-b bonds equivalent to what has been a double-b credit,
there's going to be a wave of downgrades at some point i do subscribe to the view with over half of the credit index being triple-b, the likelihood is that we'll have, i would say, about a trillion dollars worth of investment grade bonds down graded into high yield territory in the next two years. given the fact it's only about a trillion in size we would have a doubling in the market and that is certainly going to cause a lot of strain on companies that have taken on a lot of leverage. >> i have a couple more questions. we'll do a rapid fire if we can. it sounds like telecom and media, you might have called out an at&t but i will not go individual companies i said that. you did not. quickly, does jerome powell not need to be fired but does he
need to step down? is he the right guy for the job? >> i think jerome powell has exceeded expectations. i think he's doing a great job i think he needs a little more seasons in the position. a lot of fed chairman have made communication blunders in the past i think we should give him a free pass. what are the odds we get a rate cut? >> 50% >> a 50% chance of a rate cut next year? >> yep >> i don't even know how to follow up with that one. i think someone has rendered me speechless what happens to the credit and the equity markets if you are, indeed, correct, scott >> i think historically, brian, with this kind of a pull back, the federal reserve pauses they go on and do a rate cut
whether it was the crash of '87, the asian crisis, these were all opportunities to step up and buy. looking to selectively pick up what i think are some cheap assets out there because i think inevitably the fed will have to react to this. >> skcott, we kept you on the phone for too long have a great new year. we'll talk to you in 2019. >> thank you happy boxing day, brian. >> thank you very much i can hear gracie barking in the back ground. there is much more to do we have to get some follow-up. here is what else is coming up on "the halftime report. tesla was a big winner between october and mid-december up 40% and then it stalled big time one firm has a big call on the
stock. plus, jon najarian seeing unusual activity see what the options market thinks autbo this stock. "the halftime report" is back in two minutes. ♪ ♪ what if we could turn trash into money? plastic bank is doing just that, by exchanging plastic for digital credits redeemable for everything from food to education... powered by ibm blockchain. when you understand the potential of new technology, you can put smart to work.
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equity markets a decent rally coming off the worst christmas eve for the equity markets ever. at one point up 500 points nothing to sneeze at, i'm sure we're not down another 500 or 600, although there's still time >> there's plenty of time. >> what am i doing there's never a cop on this road let's just throw the script out on what we had planned, and i want to follow up on the interview with scott minerd. scott, thank you very much for that i think he made three key points that stuck out number one, he thinks -- he's a bond guy primarily but he's not been optimistic on equities but he sounded, joe terranova, he said the bottom may be getting close in equities. >> i would agree with that the businesses themselves of a lot of the equity names have never been better from a valuation standpoint i think he's krekt i think what is the headwind for equities finding first
stabilization, which is what they have to do before they can go higher is i think you have something uniquely different in 2008 you could identify what the financial market instability was. you knew what you were fighting. there's a confluence of indicators right now that creates a perfect storm and it's almost as if you have seve fires going around and you only have one fire hose where are you pointing the house? the tariffs? the miscommunication of the administration is it the fed? >> it's all of those things. i've been talking to scott offline and he referred to it as a meteor shower, that the market is getting hit by a bunch of different media. whatever it might be
is there one that worries you more than the others >> that's the problem. >> death by 1,000 meteors? >> as a speculator in the aassumption of risk, you can't identify which is more of a headwind than the other. you can speculate and say this is the problem i believe liquidity is more of a problem. pete najarian believes it's more of the trade issues that are a problem. others believe it's the administration that's the problem. which is -- >> it's a choose your own adventure for the stock market >> the problem is then where is the instability that you specifically and tactically can target to find stabilization that's a problem >> what if it's all of them? >> but name a time in our modern history you've had this
confluence of head winds come together >> i think you're actually all agreeing >> i think we disagree on how to handle it. you've been able to shove the problem in a box and say here is what's wrong >> so let's go to point two, jenny, and i want to you comment on this. scott's second point, i think, the headline of the interview, is that there's a 50% chance of a rate cut >> see, i love that. >> in 2019 >> here is the thing the market has corrective mechanisms and you don't know when they're going to crop up. one at work today are oil prices another one we've accused the fed of being too rigid they're being flexible we talked about four rate hikes next year and now we're talking about a potential cut. >> you love a rate cut because you equate that to the thinking of the market where if you cut rates the market goes up what if you cut rates -- >> fair enough because the economy is bad fair enough. >> what if you cut rates and the market goes down
>> what do you do then hmm. it depends on the kind of business and portfolio you're managing who knows? >> hold on scott is not an equities guy he's not coming on and saying let's cut rates because i want equities to go up. >> that's what the market wants. >> is it, though >> i think to the third point, bring up the third point and, jon, you can chime in, you have a lot of debt out there, high yield debt a lot of leveraged buyouts, private equity activity. most every retailer that's gone bankrupt at some point has been the subject of a private equity buyout scott was carefully extrapolating that out to other industries i think the rate cut may be needed because the credit side, not because he's trying to pump equities
>> i agree with you 100% that's why there's a 50% chance. if it weren't for that i don't think we'd have a rate cut next year >> do you agree? >> i do. i think it might be higher than that because for months, well back into the summer every time we had someone from goldman come on and say, well, we still see foyer hate hikes, no way and i said it over and over again. finally they paired it back. they've pulled back and gone with one or two now, steven, and they're not going to get that. it's flat or it's down >> we should have a flexible fed? >> we don't know we have a flexible fed >> i suspect we do >> be careful what you ask for if we get to the point the fed is going from two rate increases next year to a rate cut, i can
promise you and will bet you the market will be lower than now. >> i'll take the bet >> $1,000 right now. >> is that legal >> it is legal >> we're not wagering on national television. >> that's a moment in time and i agree that relative to what we've seen recently the market may look cheap on a p/e basis. if the fed is going to cut, earnings will come down and if gdp comes down the multiple expands. >> good point. we have to go. there's power points powell doing a good job but needs work i want a one or two-word answer before we get to news. does jerome powell need to tighten up his language, joe terranova? >> you want a yes or a no?
>> too late already. >> i think he already did. >> jay powell doing a good job >> yes and he does need to tighten it >> i think people need to stop being crybabies and tough it out. >> i agree with that >> thank you >> there we go i've been dying to use that. >> i'll meet you at recess after school, johnny >> it's the same as when the cat person said -- the caterpillar person -- >> the cat person -- >> the high water mark both of them wished they could have pulled it back. powell wishes he hadn't said on autopilot. autopilot will not make any of these statements going forward it will be we are data driven not autopilot. >> that was a statement he made at a panel or wasn't even an official event he learned the hard way that words really matter. to reiterate, he thinks the bottom could be near for equities it could be near 50% chance of a rate cut -- rate
cut -- in 2019 but be careful of the debt markets. you have a slowing economy compared with high yield growth. a lot of debt could portend bad things the market is a good thing with the dow soaring today. up 470 points. we haven't recovered what we lost on monday but at least for now the market is not resumed the worst december for the dow since 1931, for the southwest 5 s&p 500. what's new outside of the world of money and business. it used to be news but it's almost history now, brian. here is what we have this hour russian president vladimir putin overseeing a test launch of a new hyper sonic launch the kremlin says it hit a designated practice target 3,700 miles away mr. putin has om fously said in the past this missile among an
array of new nuclear weapons cannot be intercepted. a huge plume of smoke from mt. etna triggering a 4.8 magnitude earthquake in sicily a column of ash reached more than 10,000 feet causing a temporary closure of an airport in the area. police are looking for a gunman who shot and killed an officer. police released surveillance images of that suspect and fingers crossed. lebron james is scheduled for an mri today after injuring his hamstring after last night's victory over the golden state warriors his streak of playing in 116 straight nba games is in jeopardy but, more importantly, the lakers are looking good ats e now. th ithcnbc news update "the halftime report" is back in two minutes. shield℠ annuities from brighthouse financial
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take a look at this one moving up by almost 3% right now, $5, brian. what were they buying? they came scrambling in to buy january call options so pretty short dated january calls, the 195s with the stock only at 180 when they started buying them this morning now the stock moved up to 183. they're still buying those january 195 calls. i'll probably be in those two weeks to a month i like the activity in this one. i have a second one for you, brian. take a look at what's going on over here in dana. tied to the car industry, $13.21 they're buying calls actively, too. they were $12.60 or $12.70 they've pushed it through 2017 i'll probably be in them a month
to 60 days i haven't seen the calls go up in dana. >> some interesting names there. jon najarian, thank you very much we talked about oil's pain we'll talk about why next. first to bill griffith and "power lunch." the president says the government shutdown could last for a long time, brian one of his advisers says so will jerome powell's job. we have the latest from washington and what it all means for your money plus, it's human versus machines both sides of the story. if you're in the market for a house when to make your move that and more coming up. kelly evans and i have buried the hatchet, we're back together for one day only
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♪ ♪ the difference between possible and impossible? it's a person who believes they can, surrounded and supported by others - by us - who believe it, too u.s. bank - the power of possible. welcome back to the halftime report this is futures now. i'm jackie deangless crude oil trading higher by 7% after an 18-month low. these are big swings in either direction for crude oil.
do you think it will hold over 45 >> yeah, i do. i think it will track toward 50. i'm not positive as to what this day means when you look at what the down 3 .8% in the last session meant. it's not reversed that we found the bottom of the new range. crude oil does this. trends on direction because of supply and demand. opec comments over the weekend helped when they said they would extend the production cut already. it hasn't started yet. i think we could see a move back up it's going to be sold. all right. chuck over to you. do you think we go higher from here or do you think this is a head fake? >> i think we do move higher by the end of the day, let's look back in november high expectations when the price of crude oil. it pump faked the whole market crude oil provided leadership. we've seen all asset class follow the plunge.
now all asset classes are rallying you'll see follow through. you'll see resistance at $50 but right now you're seeing shorts covering >> all right gentlemen, thank you for more on the crude conversation, make sure you tune with the live show tomorrow at 1:00 p.m. eastern time futuresnowcnbc.com see that's funny, i thought you traded options. i'm not really a wall street guy. what's the hesitation? eh, it just feels too complicated, you know? well sure, at first, but jj can help you with that. jj, will you break it down for this gentleman? hey, ian. you know, at td ameritrade, we can walk you through your options trades step by step until you're comfortable. i could be up for that. that's taking options trading from wall st. to main st. hey guys, wanna play some pool? eh, i'm not really a pool guy. what's the hesitation? it's just complicated. step-by-step options trading support from td ameritrade
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will result in the fed announcing it's going to take action we're close enough to a bottom that -- >> scott saying closer to the bottom and a 50% chance the federal reserve cuts rates in 2019 let's go around the horn final thoughts >> i think the market is trying to stabilize up 500 we'll probably get back what he lost on monday i was focus on names like amazon if we're going to see a rally over the next couple days, those names will work. >> lost 350 billion in market cap. >> i'd rather see a flat market for a couple weeks that's real stability. i'm going with visa. i think it's a great play. oversold >> mastercard had positive data. >> we added h and e to the portfolio. we talk in management, business is fantastic it has a 5.7% dividend yield
>> allergan pops on the way back up strong buying. i bought that one. >> i like it new names. thank you very much. thank you all. i'll see some of you tomorrow, and i'll see all of you on fast money 5:00 p.m. because you haven't had enough power lunch begins right now >> never enough, brian i'm kelly evans. a rally on the street. santa put in a bunch of buy orders retail, energy, financials all jumping right now. can you trust the snap back? investors looking for direction out of washington. the government shutdown in the fifth day. president trump holding ground and taking aim at the fed. we'll look at what's next from here retailers are having their best holiday season in six years. amazon, kohl's and dollar general, that's a trio, all serging today. power lunch starts right