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tv   Squawk on the Street  CNBC  April 11, 2019 9:00am-11:00am EDT

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final check on the markets right now. there are green arrows we're off the highest levels we've seen earlier in the session. still up about 27 points. >> did we not mention the masters a single time? >> no. >> we haven't. >> the masters. >> three seconds. >> the masters. >> join us tomorrow. right now it's time for "squawk on the street. see you later. ♪ girls what you trying to do ♪ 24 karat magic in the air >> good thursday morning welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer david faber. plenty to watch as we await jobless claims 196 k, fourth straight decline si six-month deadline delay for brexit disney's day of reckoning, details about that streaming
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strategy uber is expected to file ipo paperwork as soon as today and anthony nota, sofi ceo is with us. disney, the company prepares to unveil its new streaming service today. david, you'll have a busy day and a busy night as well. >> yeah. it's going to be about, yeah, 12, 14 hours of a lot of busy, in fact. investors will be focused on the goings on as disney does unveil both the actual app that people are going to be able to use to stream disney plus and the key service there, of course, in terms of entertainment and they're going to, as we have sort of indicated, i think, the expectation is that they're going to introduce a lot of data points and a lot of specificity in terms of their expectations when it comes to the cost of the
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new service, both obviously an additional cost for content and marketing and technology as well as lost license fees over time from content they're no longer licensing to the likes of netflix. they are expected to perhaps -- although some analysts differ on this from what i heard, at least, there's an expectation that they will put out some projections, at least, in terms of their subscriber count or what their expectations are we will see. but it is a big day, to be sure, for bob iger and for this company. we had talked so often about it, i don't want to forget that this is still a company that generates, what, 25% of its earnings, from the theme parks it's got an incredible franchise and has only been strengthened, of course, for the fox acquisition in terms of film entertainment. this is where the focus is this is where investors have been focused for such a long time, jim. back to the days -- it's almost seven years ago when they first started to wonder whether there was beginnings of weakness at
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espn in terms of carriage and in terms of cord cutting starting to eat into that that led to, in many ways, jim, today and this big pivot for the company that we've been waiting for. >> i remember the 100 million subscribers that was put out and it never went further. david, this is an extraordinary meeting for one particular reason i've never seen major news kept under wraps other than maybe a big takeover david, how are they able to keep this one so we don't know a thing about what they're going to show us >> yeah. you know, they're going to be -- there's going to be a press release. we're going to get a lot of details in there obviously, mr. iger will make a presentation as i've been saying in the last few of our shows it's not just going to be disney plus. we'll learn more about their plans for hulu, which they now control, 60% stake
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that could go up more. they're going to tell us more about india, which is something we never or rarely talk about, of course. they did lose sky but still bought star india as part of the fox acquisition. they have succeeded in keeping it somewhat quiet. you and i have had a chance to talk to people on background who has seen the app itself and described it very positively, didn't they? >> yeah. i mean, it's rather incredible on the board of apple. it reminds me of apple when we're about to introduce something that we need that we didn't know we need. >> plot twists on the next st"sa wars." these are professional secret keepers at disney, that's for sure. >> you're absolutely right. >> yesterday, youtube tv hikes prices, david, from 38 to 55 bucks. pricing, you could argue, they're going into a period
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where consumers are getting conditioned to pay more. >> yeah. and pricing is something else, carl i'm glad you mentioned it. i forgot to. we are going to learn today. where is the service going to be priced all the analysts and so much type has been written at this point in terms of their expectations lot of upgrades we've pointed to the last few days as well. 6.99, 7.99, where will the price be will there be discounts if you get disney plus, hulu? some kind of yearly membership for the parks? there's a lot they can do when it comes to the pricing. that will be a key component here the services you mentioned, youtube, which has been amongst the most successful of the virtu virtual, we saw what happened with directv now
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at&t chose to stop losing so much money per suband the sub slowed dramatically. in fact, they lost subscribers we'll watch how many subscriptions can one family really afford and do they really want to pursue they have netflix or hulu and they have one of these over-the-top products. where does it sort of end or at what point does it get closer to what they're paying or were paying for the bundle when they were connected >> we talk about artificial intelligence and machine learning bob iger, uniquely, is still about gut and knowing what works and knowing surprise, knowing how to put on a show and carl is so right he knows how to keep things secret when i saw one of my absolute favorite movies, avengers. they've got to come back
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tell me they didn't really die and he said you have to wait and see. we are waiting and seeing until right now, david how big is thoday >> it's an important day for the company. we don't want to make light of the fact that disney still generates an enormous amount of revenue and profit from theme parks and filmed entertainment but this is a very important day. it's not as though -- we all know this. this is an imperative for the company, right iger knows that. the investment public knows that, at this point. it's essential to their business and the disruption we've been talking about now for years is permanent. nobody disputes that so, yeah, it's a very important day. i will say this for iger the day he took the job in 2005, he has always looked to the future and he has always sort of been doubling down on really the strengths of disney in terms of story telling and the franchises they had and the values that they've sort of embodied. and so pixar and then marvel and
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then lucas and now fox, which is obviously, by far, the largest and we'll see, and very expensive, as we know, given what our parent company did in terms of competing, what they agreed to in terms of the consent decree and potentially not particularly great price jim, that's where he has always been focused he has known where he wanted to go and he has been ceo for 13 years getting there. >> how about the comments he made as he won a humanitarian award? hate and anger are dragging us toward the abyss once again. apthy is actually growing. and the quote i'm looking at even more, it is consuming our
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public discourse and shaping our country and culture into something that is wholly unrecognizable to those of us who still believe in stability, human rights and basic decency. >> this is something that a president would say, or person running for president. do you think he would like to be president if he didn't stay? >> i think he thought about it long and hard. i think he spent a lot of time on t i know he did in fact, he has talked about it. a year ago or so he did an interview, richard haas, council of foreign relations, how serious will he he thought about it the fox acquisition took it off the table and very strong or strenuous objections from his family, his wife being the key one. but, yeah, i think he did think about it these are comments along those lines. but, listen, every year or so, iger does sort of weigh in on sort of broader issues it was interesting to see those comments this morning.
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>> david, this was an honor. everybody was really there big talent there is this possible that everybody will be at this meeting, too jimmy kimmel shows up. we've got -- jimmy kimmel is very funny, by the way, and very ironic is this a stars day, too we have "frozen 2" coming out, "toy story" coming out is it going to be that kind of demonstration of fire power? my understand, david, they could theoretically have 38 out of the 52 weeks just dominated by disney and fox, right? >> that's right, given all the franchises, as you know, and everything that's coming i don't know who is showing up today other than, obviously, the key people making the presentations, jim but we'll be there and we'll be on air for all of it and
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speaking for mr. iger as well. i guess we'll find out. >> nice to see faber up there with paul rudd, scarlett johanss johansson. >> donald duck and goofy. >> not my first thought but -- >> no. did he survive that last -- pokey died find out, david, who is coming back okay the world wants to know. find it and break that story and i'll buy you a steak dinner. >> oh, thank you just what i need when we come back, we'll talk with sofi ceo anthony noto sara has david malpass, first interview as the new president of the world bank. we're watching the markets here. incredible number on claims. four-week average goes to a new cycle low. future is pretty good. we're back in a moment
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down two runs in the ebottom of the ninth. because there's always another game on deck. with mlb extra innings on xfinity x1, you'll get up to 90 out of market games per week with included. get all the body sacrificing catches, home plate heroics, and 6-4-3 double plays. plus, with x1 you can get every stat and every score all with the power of your voice. that's simple. easy. awesome. order mlb extra innings for a great low price and get included with your subscription. go online to learn more. exciting news here joining us now in the cnbc exclusive, old friend of mine, i have to admit, sofi ceo anthony noto thank you for joining us. >> my pleasure, jim. >> all right why do we need more index files? >> before we hop to that detail
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let me make sure people are familiar with sofi to begin with the company was founded in 2011, mobile first personal finance committee started with refinancing student loans, morphed into personal loans. what's excited about the last year is how rapidly we've extended into a number of new areas, relaunched mortgage in early march, planning on doubling that business this year if you're going off to college or in college you can apply for a loan and then the launch of our mobile app at the beginning of the year with two great products, sofi money, best of checking and savings account in one. high interest, 2.25%, requires no minimum balance, no spending amount and, most importantly, no fees you can spend wherever you want, whenever you want, right from your phone or debit card or atm card which we do 100% refunded atm fees and last and most importantly is sofi invest, ability to invest in stocks, etfs and soon to be other asset
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classes, no commissions, no account fees the reason we're launching these two etfs, we wanted to tailor make, we didn't feel there was a product in the market that met their needs. second it has three important characteristics, first no fees all of your money goes into the fund no management fees, no fund fees second, low price. $10 per share. in order for our members to get exposure to diversified companies they would need to spend much more than that. spy is an example around $290 a share. low entry point allows them to use a small amount of money to get to know the market and last market weighted by growth. >> all right no fee this, no fee that $10 this how the hell are you making any m money at all >> some products we have where we won't make money. this happens to be one where we want to take noviced and new investors and give them an easy
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on ramp. we don't want friction in cost and want all their money to work with them to maximize their opportunity. >> do fees kick in down the line or is this in perpetuity >> through june 2020 our goal is to keep the fees low as possible and no fees for the foreseeable future we'll re-evaluate as we go. >> like the great depression, they don't do what we did. what are they doing? >> two things, they're under served in the consumer financial space and we're trying to serve them better. two, there's a lot of anxiety. they've lived through tumultuous financial times and have hesitation to do things. what we're trying to do is reduce that friction and give them alcohol's to things they know and things we know they like 40% of our users, mostly mill millenni millennials, participate in the gig economy. a new etf, gig economy etf
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we'll put into that etf all the things that millennials are spending money on today. >> millennials are also interested, to some degree, in the stock market they love uber. they have it on their phone. they buy uber stock. good idea, bad day didea >> if you want to get to that point, investing is an imperative it's not a choice. to do so, you should invest in diversified portfolio companies. it's also okay to own stocks we've done research where our members have told us they want to own stocks first and second and then robo investments. you need to pair it with a diversified portfolio, understand what the company does and makes money. many of the companies that go public will not generate positive cash flow for years
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that creates risk, volatility and now this investor needs to understand that before buying. >> do you think that is a danger in aggregate for the market? this hunger for companies that have hyper growth and no chance for profits in the near term >> markets will be volatile. sometimes the market wants growth sometimes it wants value as long as you invest over the long term you can survive through those periods of volatility, which is why we're focused on diversified portfolios and long-term investment. >> tell me about your history so people know. you're here, i said old friend you helped to bring a company to the street that went public. you've had many different hats which are the ones you would tell millennials they should try to go big? >> i love what i'm doing now and i tell people it will be my life's work. i have a personal passion because of how i grew up and what my family had when we were young, my brothers and mom and my father and i all endured over
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time so the reason i'm at sofi is i believe the mission we have to help people achieve financial independence it's so hard to have enough money to have a house, children and accomplish the dreams and ambitions that you have. that's where i'm putting 100% of my focus i hope this will mark my career as my life's work. >> do people ask you about lyft, just for example >> i get asked all the time about individual stocks. >> yeah. >> i happen to have children who are 25, 20, 15 and two wins that are 13 i love them very much. they ask me questions all the time my wife, kristin, is investing now. we've made it very accessible from your phone. people in the office who are invested and my children are starting to. look at the things you already pay money for. make sure it's at a fair price and you'll have more passion buying the things you already pay for. >> when you talk to brian moynihan i'll say wow, you have
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a great app. we love his app. it's really made for millennials, right he always says the same thing. why do you make that misperception? it's everybody everybody has a phone now. why are we only talking about millennials? >> we're focused on 18 to 40 and you need a core target to serve. we are focusing on that target that happens to be millennials it absolutely appeals to people who are older than that and younger than that. we would love if baby boomers use the product and more gen-z's use the product. >> lending financial services that have evolved over time, what did you make of that? what's your response >> i didn't tune in to all of it i listened to part of it in between meetings and so forth. it's an interesting time that we're almost ten years away from the financial crisis and as these big banks want to grow, the regulation is holding them
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back and potential ly holding or economy back it's an important debate to have the more interesting question is when will regulators give licenses to companies like ours? we're regulated in all the states we lend money we're comfortable being regulated. we have exams by other regulators on a routine basis. we welcome the regulation. we have to run our business that way to begin with, and we do, getting a license as an ilc or occ charter would be incredibly valuable to us, allow us to bring more opportunity to more people in the united states. >> well, also one thing that anthony did leave out is service, west point. i have to bring that up because i know that you are a fabulous supporter of army. and i want to thank you for serving. >> thank you i appreciate that. something i'm incredibly proud of as much as we can help our v veterans, we want to do that being from some place like west point has had a profound impact on my life. >> thank you so much, anthony.
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>> thank you. >> good seeing you. >> good seeing you as well. >> anthony noto. we're back after a short we'rethe future of short technology investing lies beyond the tech sector. echnology transforming every sector. ♪ at pgim, our bottom-up approach uses a technology lens to identify long-term winners. from energy... to real estate... to retail. finding such opportunities for alpha is the true value of active investing. and around the world, you have a partner in that pursuit. pgim: the global investment management businesses of prudential.
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disney investor day meeting out in los angeles faber has that we're watching brexit. we're back in just a moment.
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♪♪ ♪♪ 90 seconds until the opening bell let's get cramer's mad dash. >> talk about bad -- yeah,
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absolutely bad, bad and beyond they did it again. numbers come out stock jumps to 19. people don't do their homework you then get on the call and then they talk about how things will get great no specificity getting a little more than 2%. this is the type of thing that will make it so the proxy fight that's coming up, the activists will have a leg up this company may have a real challenge on its hands once again, they failed to deliver in what was a quarter because of the proxy challenge should have been a go. >> constant disappointment you think it has no credibility?
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arguments against these guys >> opening bell here s&p 500 and new york stock exchange. computing company, pager duty. at the nasdaq the cornell blockchain conference. the other retail story costco down from those february numbers. >> true but it has been the one to buy on any one of those disappointments. the company is on fire, doing everything right should it be down a little more?
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absolutel absolutely. >> i heard things that made me think that the average is snapping back for most not for everyone there is a calendar switch i felt real good goldman all leading the dow. >> look, we have the earnings tomorrow they've just been okay not what people want. the commentary a lot of times stocks open up and then they go down if you're going to trade these wait till the conference call. >> david faber in los angeles,
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you'll have to get back in time for, i think, is it jpm? >> yeah, wells. >> pnc. >> when is that, carl? >> waking up, by the way at 4:00 a.m. >> same time, david. same time. >> you're jim cramer you follow your own path now with all the cheering, it is annoying guys, we're talking obviously about disney we opened the show with that not just the impact on disney stock price and what impact there is in terms of the information that they share with us, but also whether there's any impact at all on netflix
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are investors going to look past it, try to ascertain the competitiveness in the marketplace and continue to grow its subs at the rate it has in the past and internationally or even in some of the other players. whether that will have a real impact, probably not one thing we're going to watch you're talking about retail. you both probably saw that letter from bezos. interesting, wasn't it to throw down the gauntlet against his retail competitors, saying you match our employee benefits and our $15 minimum wage do it. better yet, go to 16 and troe the gauntlet back at us. interesting words in his annual letter to shareholders. >> that letter is fabulous
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people were saying jeff bezos because of problems at home were losing focus. >> i did see some people say it was a less interesting letter this year. because it has distractions. >> people should go -- >> i'm not kidding. >> i was jotting down things to do and how to stay focused it was remarkable. the amazon web, first time it's given its due. retail always good but this is the quarter and this is the year with the 47% that is aws really starts telling the tale. don't you think? >> you talked a great deal about it where you have so many ceos who were users of aws and all the other companies who offer services around it the growth is incredible it continues, as we pointed out
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so many times. it is a high margin business and amazingly, right, one that, what, how many years ago basically it didn't even exist to think about where they are today. and microsoft, azure, google as well, diane green having exited. it's an incredibly competitive area but continues to be profitable. >> one of my favorite lines, as the company grows, everyone needs to scale, including the size of your failed experiments. if the size of your failures isn't growing, you're not growing to be inventing at a size that can actually move the needle a and. >> and the next line, the fire fails. whoever mentions failures? you don't look back. you have to look forward this guy knows what is really the thing to do.
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this guy is not afraid to tell it like it is, warts and all it's so gutsy. this guy is different. a lot of people who achieve success, however you want to try to define it i think you still get amazon, don't you? >> i'm sorry >> i'll try it right now go to >> >> yeah. >> are you serious >> yeah. you didn't know that >> come on. >> that's true. >> i didn't actually know that. >> that's a new one. >> he was on "jeopardy!" he has a lot of irrelevant facts. >> lyft update, up about a
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percent. how important is this to watch >> right now if you're an uber, you're saying please hold, please hold. otherwise we're going to have it down deals that are coming that aren't so bad. there will be a younger component buying this and i don't know whether they know what to do if it breaks the price. >> second time in a week downgrades the stock chipotle they go to hold but take the target from 600 to 700. >> look, there are people who want to declare victory, which i never mind it's better than if they jump on right here
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people routinely downgrade them because they're too expensive. it's not a reason to truly downgrade. pay pal same way these stocks do things that are right. credit suisse has a neutral in apple. we're seeing some signs that jp and supply tracker that apple is doing better, the actual phone you have services doing well this stock is a battleground today. >> we're back to the huberty school of thought. double-digit declining phone company to a services company? they think it will be hard to shake. >> i don't know. i was at the jp morgan retail conference and a lot of retailers sell accessoryies they all comment, the most pervasive
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fashion trend in the world the apple watch. they say it's nothing, it's nothing, it's nothing. what i'm hearing is what is going to happen when 5g really comes out? will everyone buy a new iphone there may be a refresh cycle coming up that is the mother of all refresh cycles i think people are just starting to think 5g is your way. that's something to think about. >> tesla again, reports out of nikkei, plans to expand with panasonic are on hold. this stock seems to move in three percentage points every day. >> tesla, when you hear one bad thing, the bulls immediately have another it will be, panasonic's batteries weren't any good anyway you know what? there's a secret area 51 battery facto factory. it's relentless.
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every time there's something bad from tesla, there's something good but it's no longer led by the tweeter in chief actually we already have a tweeter in chief if you notice it's a kindler, gentler, less informative elon musk a lot of it is atta boy. yeah, i like that car. it's not the fiery we're going to build 600,000 cars and put a man on mars. >> i think, guys, we're getting news out of the fed. for that, we'll turn to steve liesman. steve, are you there >> yeah. carl, thanks very much fed chair president says the fed's process of normalization is at an end he calls it successful he is the first fed guy to declare this process over. although policy has kind of shifted away from it that's the process by which they raised rates to get to a certain level, almost independent of the data now he says, fed's data dependent, and the fed faces
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challenges from low inflation, missed the inflation target again in 2019. and because of this inflation problem, bullard says any future moves, the fed needs to tread very carefully he needs to take seriously any meaningful and serious move in the yield curve and any inversion. finally, richard clarida, vice chairman, also speaking today saying u.s. monetary policy is in a good place but says growth is slowing somewhat from the 2018 pace. he notes that foreign growth has been marked down, international risks including brexit remain and inflation is muted we got some data on that this morning. the jobless claims fell to a five decade low. at the same time, ppi, inflation at the core fell here is the problem that fed has, tightening job market but muted inflation. the core falling to 2% year on year all of this, guys, fabulous fodder for the fabulous sara
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eisen. we'll sit down later with the fed richard clarida later. >> steve, thanks i mean, steve is right the claims numbers are incredible and the jolts number is at an 11-month low. no wonder these fed minutes yesterday were like, could be up, could be down. >> one of the things that james bullard, i think -- i went from being a little cool at one point to thinking that he is kind of a visionary in there i think that we're -- look here is what happened today. when i went to college, everything i learned is wrong. how about that people keep saying, look, the numbers are wrong or the numbers can't continue i'm saying the texts were wrong. and it's very hard i don't want to write off a year of my life but there wasn't anything in those texts that
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turned out to be the case. they were still dealing with a 1969 paradigm, if you spend too much you get inflation the books are wrong. but people don't want to say it. >> yeah. >> so wrong. phillips screwdriver, only thing working. >> muted open here bob pisani, good morning. >> happy thursday. lot of wonderful people down here pager duty is behind me, waiting for that to open it priced above the range. you want to watch these mid-level deals. i know everyone is obsessed with uber but cloud computing, systems that monitor it for you when something happens on the network. $23 is the talk, significantly above the price range from a few days ago we'll get more on that when it opens. another one down here, fire wall management technology, $14
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that's the high end of the range. they're in very hot spaces of security monitoring and they look like they're going to do very, very well. this is a very good sign for the ipo market overall we didn't have junia today they have file d a notice of effectiveness. they are coming here they will be trading tomorrow, just not today as was anticipated. as for lyft, the general feeling was when they saw potential lower valuations for uber, more people came in and sold lyft yesterday. it was third heaviest volume day since it went public so i'll go along with that theory overall here mixed market on the open nothing terribly sticks out here banks, consumer staples, all on the mixed side here, positive or negative banks a little bit better. over in europe, lvmh, historic high today their numbers were just off the
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charts not only are the rich getting richer, folks, they're spending an awful lot more. wine and spirits up 13%. fashion, perfumes, cosmetics, watches, look at these numbers they're huge total sales up 16% again, new high for them the bottom line here is if you look at the earnings reports coming in, they're good. fastenal makes fasteners, up a bit here earnings were better than anticipated, right near a new high for that company. earnings results for the quarter so far, 25 companies reporting that erbeating by a significant amount 7.25%, way above average earnings will be better than anticipated. i know you've heard talk about negative earnings for the quarter, down 2.5% bottom line is i think that will change we'll be positive. that number, eps, down 2.5, will be positive. guys, back to you.
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>> all right really quick, do you think we'll get a negative earnings for the quarter overall on s&p >> no. i think that the ones that will be disappointing will be dollar related. >> speaking of all of that, rick santelli at the cme. good morning, rick. >> good morning, carl. you know, let's look at some month-to-date charts where important information can be gleaned. two-year note deals you can see that it is risen and is bumping along at 235 area. notice how flat and solid the right part of that chart is. now, as you move down the curve, you start to curve it down a little bit see the month-to-date of ten-year note deals. as we hover right around 2 1/2 percent that intra-day highs last week are technically significant. they represented the first major low yield closeout, bounced from
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alma tutors from january 3rd overseas, recognize that long delay on brexit, it didn't affect the markets in a negative way. it actually firmed up rates a bit as you see on the month to date yields now over 113 in terms of percent. finally, dollar versus yuan. we're talking about it in the context of earnings. dollar/yuan has been flat as a pancake. i think that's a good sign, personally it started out as part of the dialogue volatility. finally the dollar index, beginning of 17, hovering in a zone we haven't seen since mid 17 it's usually the volatility in the currency boy, it's been awful flat as of late carl, jim, david in l.a., all back to you. >> rick, thank you still coming this morning, sara eisen has an interview with david malpass his first as president of the world bank.
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banks are leading the dow. s&p 2890
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jim, what's on "mad" tonight. >> jeff gennette, everybody has big interviews today, mine might not be the star. sara is killing for him. i'm pulling for jeff >> good show yeah we'll see you tonight. "mad money" tonight 6:00 p.m. eastern time to d.c., where sara is sitting down with a special guest from the spring imf meeting good morning. >> good morning. i'm excited for jim's guest too as well. good morning, carl and jim i'm here at the imf world bank meeting with david malpass, his first ever interview here as the world bank president welcome, congratulations. >> thank you very much i'm excited to be here and enthusiastic about the job >> how many changes, big changes are we going to see at the world bank under your leadership
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>> so the structure i want to move forward with what is there, i don't see the need for a reorganization what we need to do is be very effective at the job that we're doing. the mission is clear mission is poverty alleviation, shared prosperity, having countries do better, having them grow more. that's a tall challenge and i just want to get on with that job. >> so there was some controversy around your nomination and you did get unanimous approval by the board. did you have to convince member countries, though, you weren't going to be a proxy for the trump administration >> you know, i was very heartened by the response. i traveled early on after president trump nominated me and i was grateful for that. i went to japan, korea, china and on to -- i went to ten countries and the reception was very good throughout people want to talk about development. they want to talk about the mission of the world bank. and they -- i think they like the u.s. having a very involved and engaged role in the world
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bank so while they're in the media, there were questions, the reality i think was that people were supported from the beginning. i talked with president xi of china and everyone is very interested in that role. he was supportive of the idea that the world bank is -- has a clear mission, that our relationship with china is evolving in a positive way where we can be constructive together in the rest of the world >> so does that mean you're not looking at the world bank as a tool to further undermine or confront china as the trump administration has been doing. >> so there are challenges facing the world in terms of how do you have transparent projects that are high quality, where the debt is transparent. china moved so fast that in some parts of the world there is just too much debt. that's something that we can work on with china, they want to work on it they want to see a better relationship with other countries and be part of the world system
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so i expect to be successful in that and to have a good relationship with china. >> one of the things we heard you talk about before, though, is less lending to china as it doesn't need it as much as some of the other countries, is that something you're going to get to work >> yes, that's embedded in the capital increase that was worked out early in 2018 with the -- with the shareholders of the world bank so china recognizes that its role as a borrower in the bank needs to diminish substantially. that's been going on in the lending programs and i expect it to go on pretty rapidly over the next three or so years as the programs are reduced. china does want this relationship where the world bank can provide technical assistance and be engaged in china. they welcome that role in certain areas, so we're going to find areas that we can work on one is poverty, and another is the environment itself and so china has -- faces big
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environmental challenges the world bank is good on those topics and so we can find things to work together as we wind down the borrowing relationship. >> it is about working together, and now that you represent both the u.s. and china of this organization, how do you deal with a conflict like what we're seeing on trade and the tariffs back and forth how do you take a position >> well, there are bilateral issues that the world bank doesn't get into what we do know is that more trade is good for countries. it is a way -- it is good within countries. one of the principle ways countries can advance economically is to have more commerce in the united states, that takes the form of commerce among the various states, that's critically important to u.s. growth china is doing the same thing within china, trying to have more trade around china. and it applies to international trade as well. so i hope to see those are the world's two biggest economies, i hope they can work out their
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issues and move forward with fast growth. that's the goal here >> well, growth is slowing globally and that's been the big theme here the imf downgraded the forecast to the lowest since the financial crisis you guys too, i think, have been seeing slower -- >> world bank did in january and we are seeing slower growth. but as far as the u.s. and china, not so much of the slowdown is coming out of them, it is more coming out of europe. that's something that people can work on. the uncertainty coming out of brexit is a challenge for growth in europe. and it is very, very important that that growth begin to pick up my own view is that structural reforms, whether in the u.s. or in china or in europe can have a positive impact on developed country growth, and that's very important to the base for developing countries if we think about what would help developing countries, good programs in their own countries is good, faster global growth would also help a lot.
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>> how much do you see the slower synchronized slower growth right now and see it as being derived from the trade war and the tariffs back and forth >> i don't have too much comment on that. i think a bigger part of the slowdown is in europe itself and so it is -- as we talk about synchronized slower growth, we mean many of the countries in europe are growing slower. i think structural reforms can -- >> china is too. and -- >> china slowed some, but still growing pretty fast. and i think it -- and so i think it is good for the world if countries can grow faster. the u.s. has lots of things that it can do to improve the growth rate here. but it is already, you know, accelerated substantially. the 3% growth has been continuing and so that helps the rest of the world. that's been a big additive to developing countries to have the u.s. growing as fast as it has been.
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>> if you look at your mission here at the world bank, fighting poverty, and then that's a shared goal, it needs support from so many different countries. is it harder now in this environment where countries are puttinging up tariffs against each other, britain is negotiating an exit from the eu, doesn't that make your life harder >> it is challenging as growth slows down you mentioned the uk they have been a big partner with the world bank in terms of development. there are constructive force i'm hopeful that will continue very strong. i expect it to we're looking forward to the world bank is looking forward to working closely with the uk on development issues so as we think about it, i think of the challenges as being good programs, country by country, of course, the background, meaning global growth, is important, but even more important part of it is how does each individual country and their leaders come up with good economic programs that means price liberalization,
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that means trade liberalization, that means including women within the economy they're a key driving force of how countries can grow that means a legal structure where the rule of law is respected. means basics like water and electricity, all of those are things that the world bank can work with the country on, but the driving -- the driving pressure has to come from good country programs >> i heard you talk a lot now about some of the goals and where you're focused on. have not heard you mention climate change, another area that seems at odds with the trump administration and the mission of your new rule at the world bank. >> people may want to divide, but i'm trying to pull people together there is a common mission. with regard to climate change, what we know is that climate has big effects and especially on poor -- on poor people and so the world bank has products that help with that, that means
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adaptation, for example, to the changing environment that people -- that people are facing, whether that's in ban a bangladesh or in mozambique where there has been a cyclone there can be preparation for it. therecan be mitigation of various aspects of what a country is doing that may itself be harming the environment and so i think -- >> you're on board with what the world bank has been doing? they have been divesting from coal projects and really focusing a lot of the funding on climate change projects. >> the world bank has a plan, climate change action plan, which i support and which i think is being very successful in interacting with countries at the level of climate and i expect that -- those to continue and so rather than people trying to look for differences, i think there is this big opportunity to recognize this is an urgent mission, a very clear mission, it is pretty granular meaning
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what does each country do to each developingcountry do to make the lives of its people work better. oftentimes that means letting markets function, the private sector enter, the role of women expand within their economy from a legal structure basis. all of those can be done and i think our unifying themes they bring the world together >> so we talked a little bit about the slowdown in global growth what is the outlook for emerging markets? you had a pretty good handle. >> yes, so we have put out in the imf puts out, you know, a lot of detail on specific countries and how they're coming -- how they're coming along. and i can't summarize for you, but one of the challenges is in the middle east, north africa region, with the exception of egypt. many of the countries are slow there. these are countries where the populations are growing fast and they need a lot of jobs. so i might single that out as a
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big challenge going on there of course, the slow growth in sub-saharan africa, in some spots it is 1% growth at a time when the population even is growing faster than that so these are very real growth problems that have -- are having a big effect the response i think can be faster growth in developed countries, that would help a lot, but better programs in the devel developing countries. >> we watch the emerging markets, they have really rebounded nicely financial conditions have eased across the board this year and a lot of it is pinned to the idea that the federal reserve pivoted and paused how much do you see the fed as the policymaker for the entire world and especially emerging markets now? >> markets watched very closely what is happening on the u.s. interest rate front. and so i think it is helping the growth environment to see the u.s. not raising interest rates. there is a lot more that can be done from the u.s. side. but i want to emphasize too,
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europe can be doing better in terms of structural reforms there that would help their economies operate. and, of course, china could be doing more around the world to have good transparent environment, faster growth that actually helps developing countries. >> okay. david malpass, thank you very much the brand-new president of the world bank back to you guys >> all right, sara, thank you very much. we're going to see you later on. she has clarida this afternoon welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla david faber is in los angeles. mike santoli is here on set as well we'll have more from the imf richard clarida is with sara exclusively this afternoon on "the closing bell" at 3:00 p.m. eastern time dow is up 30, s&p back to 2890 despite growing concerns over a slowdown around the world. joining us here at post nine is david costa. it is good to have you back.
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>> good to see you. >> joining us a day ahead of kickoffs earning season and what we think will be first decline in s&p earnings in a couple of years. will it be >> yes, likely to be an aggregate s&p 500, negative he ea earnings growth, but will show positive earnings growth some of the largest companies, apple and nvidia, exxon, chevron, are likely to have negative results that will drag down in an aggregate sense overall profits. the bottom line is that profits for the typical company are actually going to be growing perhaps 2% the aggregate may be down 2%, the median stock probably up around 2%. >> probably helps explain perhaps one reason the market has been acting as if it is willing to look for the aggregate decline of first quarter earnings the consensus sees a pretty good uptick in growth at the second half and into 2020 i think your forecasts say that as well. one question is how long are we going to remain in the sweet
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spot where low yields are good for now, supporting the market and just you wait, the fundamentals are going to come and take over very soon. >> i would say the forecast that we have is the market middle year is likely to be closer to 2750 by the end of the year, around 3,000. what does that narrative tell you the beginning of this year, the fed pivot suggests the fed was unlikely to be raising rates for the most of this year, as a result that's helped drive the equity market higher you have this period the next six weeks you have earnings coming out they'll be negative. so, yes, everyone is anticipating that. you see the results, that's going to be the choppy part for the market look out to the second half of the year, earnings and profits are likely to be resuming some upward trend. >> you mentioned rates kudlow is on the tape. hard to tell if he's joking on this headline. he says that interest rates may never rise again in his lifetime a sense among some that inflation is rolling over.
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do you think that's true >> it depends how you want to measure inflation. different components to that there is one area of concern that we have from a profit point of view. so from the social point of view, the idea of wage inflation is good. from a profit earnings perspective, that is one risk of lower downward pressure on margins. that's been a big topic, companies have been managing margins at high levels for the last several years and as we look forward, that is a pressure one strategy, in a world where the market, u.s. stock market trades at a high level of valuation, there are those companies that have low labor exposure, meaning that if you look at their labor budget, as a share of the revenue, it is relatively low, those companies are less at risk of negative earnings visions the source of that would be margins and margin pressure -- >> you think this dovish view, 50 basis point cut, right, qe 4 if you listen to the president, you think that's misguided
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we'll see -- >> i said when you think about inflation, there is different components to it the area that we would be most concerned about as an equity investor relates to labor inflation. the other measure the sources of inflation, medical costs, housinging, will be less of a concern. that's what the fed generally looks at, sort of person consumption expenditures but we look at -- not we look at, as an equity investor, that's more relevant. >> you had a little bit of a hot ppi number, producer price index today, and you have, you know, jeff bezos challenging his competers to raise wages claims very low. bank of america saying we're raising our minimum wage there is a wage growth story, what types of companies and sectors does that take you toward as those insulated? are those the same big growth companies that have been outperforming already? >> you can see companies in every sector of the market the typical company in the u.s. equity market around 13, 14% of the sales are consumed or
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allocated to the labor budget. so low labor sensitive companies, 5%, high company, high labor exposure, something like 25 or more than that. that's -- that gives you a sense of -- you can see companies in every sector of the market so, yes, facebook and google as examples, alphabet, would have relatively low labor exposure. sales force is an example, would have technology company that is high labor exposure. now, that's only one variable to think about. that's a way in our conversation with portfolio managers, that's a big topic of understanding that the idea of the national association of business economists does a survey what they find is that most companies, they're building to increase costs and pass on pricing are lagging their input costs for materials and labor. that's where the protection comes from. >> you mentioned surveys, journal has a survey on recession risk 26%. goldman just took their number down to 10 you guys were at 20 at the end of last year, right?
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>> my colleagues in u.s. economics have that forecast if you think about it, in a very reductive sense, 70% of u.s. economy is the consumer. >> forgive the ipo enthusiasm. you go along with 10% risk over four quarters? >> the balance sheet of consumer is very strong wages are ising. unemployment is low. consumer confidence is reasonably high. those are all suggesting that the consumer is in a solid position to keep growing that would be suggestive of why the recession is so low. >> you've been focusing on buybacks as a driver of the market for a while now and continuing one. i guess for one thing, just how important do you think buybacks have been in the overall performance of stocks and the reason i ask, of course, you had the study making the rounds, about how it accounts for all of the u.s. outperformance over the past number of years, whether that's true or not if you have a trillion dollars in buybacks in a given year, there is about $350 billion of
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stock trades every single day. that's three days worth of buying that happens by a buyback. there is all these unmeasured sources of buying. how much of a swing factor is buybacks. >> i would attribute most of the outperformance of u.s. equity markets to the technology sector u.s. has a major technology sector, those companies have been growing their revenues, earnings, much faster than the market and certainly around the world and most other markets do not have that driver of the markets. that's the most important attribute. then you are correct, in terms of buybacks, there are significant component of the uses of cash i call it the share wallet in terms of spending. we talked about this for a long time it had a meaningful impact on the overall market in my opinion. you look at earnings earnings and aggregate growing around 8% the last 15 years. 8% on average over time. earnings per share have grown closer to 11%. that's sort of 250 to 300 basis
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points, excess to superior growth in earnings per share that's one very simple metric. the companies this year will probably spend something in the -- last year spent about 800, little over $800 billion repurchasing stock and that is a meaningful driver, you see when that happens, during periods of time when you make a comment about over the overall length of the market, the company, that b buying is concentrated in periods when companies are not in a blackout period i think there is a meaningful -- >>as the lawmakers tinker with the idea of prohibiting buybacks, you say that will not lead right to capex. >> interesting question. what would a management team do, what are companies generally doing if they -- if there were no constraints, which there are now? about 10% of revenue, 10% of sales, are reinvested every
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year, consistently for 30 years, so basically companies are funding their maintenance capex and fund something growth in research and development, et cetera that's unlikely to change if you suddenly change the limitations on buybacks. what would change in my opinion is dividends >> go to the moon. >> and mergers more mergers the alternative of use of cash, you could have special dividends or more zrdistribution of cash shareholders mergers is something where they would absorb some of that. the concern on limitations of buybacks, you have periods of time when companies are not able it buy back stock, volatility is higher dispersion of returns is higher. there is a wider band of market. there is more swings in the market that would suggest as well you have slower earnings per share growth that would also be suggestive that you should have a lower valuation than the market. those are some of the issues that i would put as concerns about the idea of prohibiting buybacks. >> no one covers that as well as
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you, david thanks david costin. >> jay powell meeting with democratic leaders later today as president trump continues to criticize the fed's decisions. vice president mike pence sat down with joe kernen with his thoughts on the president's concerns here >> the president never made a secret about his concerns about some of the decisions that the fed has made but president trump respects the independence of the federal reserve. and but i really do believe that what you have in this is someone who has got a boundless confidence in the american people, that if we have sound monetary policy, if we will continue, if we re-elect a republican majority in the congress this fall in the house of representatives, if we continue to build in the momentum that we have, we only have just begun to see this economy growing. >> so there is -- that tension again between the economy is kind of a juggernaut, will keep
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growing very strongly, yet the fed should be cutting rates. what is interesting is when the white house started coming out talking about half a point decrease, that was kind of in tune to where the market was trending in terms of thinking that it was going to be more dovish i wonder if the data keep confirming the way they do, good claims numbers, all the rest of it, you know, at least at the margins, the market is wondering if they have to take that back theirs would be more of a contrast. >> right i wonder if you think -- you mentioned the market action going into this earnings season. is it because there is hope that earnings will outperform or is it pinned on the hope we will get a cut this year in. >> i don't think it is pin onnen the fact we have a cut, but the bias moved in the direction of a cut and the fact that yields are just stubbornly low. that supports valuations and i think it is really also how the market got here, which is the huge growth stocks that don't need the economy to roar some of the defensive stuff. but i think to david costin's point there, you actually meet the messy earnings season, then
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only then do you know, you know what has been priced in. >> we'll see if we get a summer slog, so to speak. here's what's coming up for the hour ahead it is finally here disney's highly anticipated investor day faber is in l.a. and has that covered from top to bottom. >> taking on big business. elizabeth warren unveiling a new corporate tax. we have those details. >> and then later damage control, what is boeing doing to win back the trust of its customers? t see cti lot more when "squawk onhetrt"onnues dow up 51. -driverless cars... -all ground personnel... ...or trips to mars. $4.95. delivery drones or the latest phones. $4.95. no matter what you trade, at fidelity it's just $4.95 per online u.s. equity trade.
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♪ let it go let it go ♪ ♪ you'll never see me cry ♪ welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm david faber in our los angeles bureau, where the time is 7:21. at 2:00, at least out here, 5:00 eastern, we're going to begin the big meeting that many people have been anticipating, which disney is going to unveil a lot of the specifics around its plan to move firmly into the streaming world. the company has already done that to some extent with its espn plus service. today is the big day in terms of g getting a lot of the specifics and i know some others have sort of been saying, are we going to get specifics? it is my belief, based on reporting, that we are going to get a good amount of transparency from the company this morning in terms of the move that it is making to unveil
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disney plus, its service that will be available later this year it is direct to consumer entertainment service for which so many analysts and investors who follow the company have been wa waiting. and trying to figure out just what the impact will be on not just on the finances, but of course the analysts have to come up with their numbers, but on the long-term future of the company as well. certainly it is going to cost more there are marketing costs. and technology costs, the costs of acquiring content and delivering or creating new content specifically for the service. and lost licensing revenues. those that -- content pulled back from other platforms such as netflix we are expected to get a decent amount of information regarding pricing, launch date, cost, and perhaps even some sub projections. those are all over the map as you might imagine from the various analysts that follow the
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country. remember disney also controls hulu now after closing the fox deal with 60% ownership there. so they really will have three platforms in the marketplace, hulu, which they see as having 50 million subscribers by 2023 the disney plus platform they're at 35.5 million. and espn plus, all out there on the marketplace. will there be discounts available to those who buy them all or even those who attend the parks on a regular basis some of these are things that perhaps will get some answers too. is it going to cost a lot? yes. is it going to be worth it are investors looking past potential earnings that disney will be taking in order to get itself ready for this future that we have been talking about for so long as cord cutting has occupied so much of the head space when it comes to media investing yeah and move ffet nathan soson, a ho
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hulu mostly. and the espn plus and disney plus as well, 1.7 to $1.8 billion annually that's not an insignificant amount of money. if the subgrowth is there, and it is there both in the united states and internationally, there is an expectation investors will be willing to look through it because the company will be moving to firmer ground in a sense from a business that is changing dra matly as we all know it is profitable to have your cable networks carried on all of your various distributors out there. but that is a business with significant disruption that is under way right now. and, you know, we do talk about these things and use a lot of hyperbole, perhaps, but it is a very important day for disney. we'll keep an eye on its stock and also keep an eye on some of the competers, see if there is an impact on netflix when we get a price for the service and understand just how robust it is going to be. by the way, the scale of it is
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going to take some time in terms of delivering a lot of content to the platform. you'll certainly have some and you'll have people who want to get their hand oz on all of the library right away if they have kids or the pixar movie, the marvel movie, the latest lucas or whatever it may be but that said, it is going to take time to pap laopulate it w content. guys, also would be remiss if we didn't say mr. iger who we will hear from, busy out there as well you saw his comments at the simon wiesenthal event yesterday in terms of social media interesting he chose to do that the day before their big announcement you wouldn't want it to get lost in some ways or be part of it i don't know that we're going to talk to him specifically about that given how much we'll have to talk to him about the news today. >> i mean, coming on the heels of that house judiciary the hearing with google and facebook that basically descended into name calling and youtube had to
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disable the comments, i think iger's comments on that front are on point, especially this week. >> sharp edge. also, of course, you know, he's on the board of apple, right and sort of kind of fits in with the apple kind of more scrupulous about sharing of privacy and data and the social function of social media, i think too. and david just quickly, mii mea it seems look you anticipated this, it seems like the response of today's event will tell us a little bit the degree to which disney has successfully been able to change the story to a larger degree, change the subject, right the fox deal makes espn a much smaller piece of the mix you have to wonder if the street is going to evaluate disney now and the flattish earnings stretch they're in on sub growth and give them netflix type of economics or credit for that at the outset and meanwhile, the sell side tried to front run this, almost
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80% of the analysts have a buy on disney. less than half six months ago. >> yeah. you know, they're changing the conversation and they're changing the complexion of the company. it is not far off from some of the challenges we have seen other companies face in the past and perhaps not met as well. ibm or kodak or, you know, we can name so manufacture thy of . iger will say, i'm sure, and has said previously, we got to look to the future, we can't be afraid to actually grab a hold of it. i don't want to lose sight of the other businesses theme parks is important, it is growing quickly. they have a lot of important things coming up on the calendar the theatrical release of avengers, the aladdin theatrical release as well. you got a few "star wars" coming toy story 4. there is no shortage of other areas where they're going to potentially benefit from both their franchise and theme parks and filmed entertainment let's not forget, we're going to
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keep an eye on the espn subs ana well not sure on guidance but we'll see. >> galaxy edge opens 50 days from today, not that i'm counting >> it is going to be a monster studio >> i mean the "star wars" galaxy edge. >> the virtual reality rides, brutal >> david, thanks a lot we'll hear from you again soon, i'm sure. when we come back, damage control, what is boeing doing to win back customers we'll tell you much more "squawk on the street" much more "squawk on the street" is ahead stopping drivers from: liking. selfie-ing. and whatever this is. available to the public... never. smartdogs are not the answer. but geico has a simple tip. turn on "do not disturb while driving" mode.
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memories. what we deliver by delivering. good morning, everyone here's your cnbc news update at this hour. wikileaks founder julian assange arriving in a london court after being arrested at the ecuadorian embassy. this on a court warrant that dates back to 2012 it sets up a potential court battle over attempts to extradite him to the u.s. where he was charged with computer hacking. earlier, british prime minister theresa may commenting on the arrest >> i would like to thank the
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metropolitan police for carrying out their duties with great professionalism and to welcome the cooperation of the ecuadorian government in bringing this matter to a resolution mr. speaker, this goes to show in the united kingdom, no one is above the law. >> sudan's long time president omar al bashir has been ousted in a military coup this following months of protests against his rule. since taking over back in 1989, he became a pariah in many countries, wanted by the international crimes tribunal for atrocities in darfur back here at home, the midwest being hit by a massive snowstorm. these pictures were taken overnight from oshkosh snow and strong winds producing blizzard-like conditions, making travel difficult and more snow is forecast for today. in like a lamb, out like a lion that's the news update this hour guys, i'll send it back downtown to you mike >> almost halfway through april. thank you very much, sue time for atf spotlight, the
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airlines the etf, the jets etf, global jets, up more than 1% today. and in fact this month it had quite a run. still underperforming on a year to date basis, but one month basis, it has run ahead of the s&p 500. largely a story of delta, the largest holding within this etf. about 14% of the jets etf and also up 14%. delta is this month. obviously a little bit of a turn back toward cyclical stocks u.s. consumer in good shape. a rotation to the cheaper cyclicals has helped as by the way oil price is higher, seems like that's a changing dynamic between the airlines and oil but right now it not holding them back. in the meantime, boeing's damage control continues. phil lebeau joins with us a look at the company's game plan >> a lot of questions about the 737 max and when we'll see it flying again when you look at the u.s. carriers, they're not expecting it to return
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look at southwest, they're not expectinging to fly it until at the end of the first week of june when you lob ok at the shares o southwest, it has the largest number of maxes anywhere in the world and not having the max hurts this airline as we go into the busy summer travel season. >> this is a growth oriented airline that is effectively neutered for the time being. and meanwhile, southwest's competitors, the airbus enabled competitors, particularly those with even more advantageous cost structures than companies like southwest, like spirit, they continue to grow unfettered. >> the big question for airlines, what will travelers do when it is back to flying the 737 max. will they say, not going to get on it? surprisingly the reaction of travelers we have talked with is mixed at this point. >> i honestly wouldn't feel safe because it is, like, you know, maybe in a few years from now,
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then i would feel safe but right now i would be very concerned. >> would i feel safe flying a 737 max? if they have a fix for the software, i would. >> this issed ed is a brand-newd it fell out of the sky >> there is going to be a big push, not only by boeing but the airlines when this plane returns, whenever it returns, to make sure the public is comfortable once again getting on the 737 max. again, no indication when that plane will be cleared and ultimately flying again. >> all right, phil you'll be on it. thank you very much. phil lebeau. when we return, senator elizabeth warren unveiling her new corporate tax plan we have those details next
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senator elizabeth warren
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unveiling a new tax plan aimed at large corporations. >> elizabeth warren has been the pace setter for democrats on economic policy in this race so far. and she's got a new plan designed to take advantage of both the fact that many large corporations, fortune 500 companies are not paying taxes because they have offsetting deductions to wipe out their liabilities and that the public is concerned about that. let's look at her so-called real corporate tax, would be a 7% levy that is applied not to the amount of profits they report to the irs, which, of course, they want to minimize, but rather to the profits they report on their financial statements to shareholders, which they want to maximize to help their stock price. it would apply to worldwide profits over $100 million only, nothing under that it would apply to about 1200 companies according to the estimates by the warren team and
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advisers now, it would raise a ton of money. if you look at her entire tax agenda, you could see she has a wealth tax that would raise $2.7 trillion over ten years. this new real corporate tax, she says, would raise $1 trillion over ten years she has a state tax changes that would raise 400 billion. in all, $4.1 trillion, elizabeth warren has proposed to raise over the next ten years, only by hitting wealthy americans and corporations and that is a reaction to what we saw from the trump and republican congress in their tax cut and it is going to be fascinating to see how many democrats follow her on this as well as the other tax hike proposal that she has come out with. >> john, we're barely a year -- having just cut corporate taxes. so how many democrats do you think will follow her? >> i think pretty much the entire democratic field is going to be for rolling back the
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trump -- trump republican tax cuts that were passed in 2017. the real question is how far do they go beyond that. and in what way do they want to roll those back. i don't think all the democrats, for example, would take the corporate rate from 21% back up to 35. but they might do other things that would raise a comparable amount of revenue. and we certainly have seen, you know, kamala harris has talked about rolling back all of those tax cuts, and we're going to see other -- i talked to pete buttigieg the mayor of south bend for speak easy we'll roll out tomorrow and he is in favor of considering a wealth tax as well as a financial transactions tax. we're going to see a lot of proposal from this large and diverse democratic field, trying to explain to people how they're going to pay for their spending proposals on health, education, infrastructure, which are pretty ambitious. >> john harwood, john, thank you. >> you bet >> i'm here today at the imf spring meeting in washington as well
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where the big theme is slowing global growth. where does the u.s. fit into the picture and are president trump's tariffs and tariff threats hurting growth i asked steven mnuchin that question yesterday >> i think we're in an environment where the u.s. is the bright spot of economic growth there is no question that the president's economic plan, tax cuts, regulatory changes in trade are helping propel the u.s. economy and there is no question that growth has slowed down in china, growth has slowed down in europe that will have some impact on the u.s. economy but this is really -- this is not about trade. >> you heard him say it is not about trade, denying those tensions have actually weighed on global growth secretary mnuchin gave us an update on where the trade negotiations stand with china, saying for the first time that an enforcement mechanism has been agreed upon from both sides. that was one of the key issues he said they were alternating
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conversations and negotiations between nights and warnings for the talks because of the time change and did not commit to a time frame but said there are no major sticking points, just 150 pages of documents so potentially some good news for investors who are hoping for progress and listening for any piece of it on those deal talks. >> yeah. it will be interesting, sara let's say we get an agreement and it seems to clear a lot of the hurdles that we have been talking about for so long. to see if that then makes people more optimistic about growth in the global economy, because as the secretary said, he said the trade tensions haven't retained growth at all. we'll see if we can kind of get the benefit of that on the back end which might prove or disprove the idea that the detentions themselves have been a factor. >> i think it could also prove or disprove whether the tax cuts are still working or whether that stimulative effect of them
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is waning. in other words, we haven't seen as much business investment. one reason could be because it is hard to get clarity as they look out because of the tariffs and the trade wars and the threats, the problems with brexit if some of these issues can be stalled, and we can get a trade deal with china, does that give u.s. businesses an opportunity to see better into the future and to be able to spend and use those tax savings and where does that investment go that's another big question. >> yeah. without a doubt. and i guess he's saying no major issues remain at this point and yet no sense of timing on what we might have something on paper. >> just that it is pretty complicated. i tried to pin him down on president trump saying we'll know in four weeks now, he said that exactly a week from today, so three weeks away, asked him if that was realistic. he wouldn't comment, said president said we want to see the right trade deal and we
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don't want to set an arbitrary deadline pretty clear on that front just in terms of the u.s. growth, since i didn't bring you that sound bite about the optimism coming from the administration, i asked why the administration is so optimistic about growth this year, they're projecting 3% versus the fed, the imf, both see the u.s. growing in the 2%. he said, look, we have been there before last year everybody underestimated our forecast as well and we did win which is true. there was people underestimated how stimulative that tax cut would be and how strong growth would be got to around 3% last year so we'll see if they can get there again this year. >> i know you got a big day ahead at the spring meeting there. mnuchin, malpass, and then clarida later today, right >> that is right, yes richard clarida will sit down with us exclusively to talk about some of these issues from the federal reserve's point of view that's what's so cool about the bank meetings, finance ministers, central bankers from
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around the world, and, of course, it is the host like david malpass and christine lagarde, both of whom we have spoken to. everyone bringing in what the u.s. is doing, versus the rest of the world, how to process some of the global risks and a lot of people want to know as you guys know what the fed policy is going to be. they set policy for the rest of the world in terms of the markets and the economics, very much on pause but lots to talk about with him after those minutes yesterday. 3:00 p.m., we'll see you then. closing bell >> all right, sara, we'll see you then a quick break here get a check on shares of lyft today, of course broke 60 yesterday intraday. but recovering back 61, 65 dow is in a bit of a range up 51 and we're holding 2890 lyft is expected to face uber down the road. uber, we might get an s1 today it is the great rate debate. rick is sitting down with jim grant, grant interest rate observer that's coming up next.
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jim paulson says stocks could see a further double digit rally. one thing has to happen first. find out what atth is on more "squawk on the street" coming up.
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now to the cme group in chicago. rick santelli has the santelli exchange good morning, rick >> good morning. thanks, mike would like to welcome my special guest jim grant. thank you forjoining me. let's do some interest rate observing, mr. grant >> all right. >> you know, inflation is a big theme and now it seems as though everybody that has anything to do with inflation is saying it is slayed. is inflation dead in your opinion, jim grant, or is it just hibernating a bit >> the fed in a way, kind of a funny paradoxical way, has been chasing its tail the past ten years or so, been a
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time of great credit formation, borrowing and lending corporate debt as a way up and so if you look at the restaurant business, huge boom in restaurant construction that, construction. that's very, very easy credit conditions and what this leads to finally, today, is ten chicken nuggets at burger king for 1.49. that's an anti-inflationary problem for the fed but it was the very interest rates that the fed imposed that have to bring on the so-called problem. actually for consumers it's not a problem, but -- >> in many ways, jim, inflation isn't a problem for people, it's mostly a problem for those that own things that have depreciated or moved lower in price, it's a way to inflate things, especially financial assets, but in the end the question i want to ask is, free markets or fed markets? many were upset that the fed and
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all central banks became goliaths of the universe and now that things seem to be we're at an all-time high, they're calling for the same fed to manage interest rates again. how do you see it? >> we need free markets. it's not quite, of course, these days. it's as if we were watching a cub skin and everybody was talking about the umpires. they could not stop marveling at the umpires, so we are preocc y preoccupied by the people who make the rules and who change the rules and who change the value of the currency within that set of rules. i think we will arrive at a very good place when no one knows the name of the chairman of the fed. that would be a fine thing. as it is now that name is omnipresent and the fed itself is certainly too much with us. >> jim, i think that's a great place to leave it and i would
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just say the following, when people say, we want to know what fed policy is going to be they should think about what they are asking because the fed shouldn't know much more than a good interest rate observer knows about the future. thank you, jim grant and we'll go back to mike santoli. >> let's send it over to jon fortt with a look on what's coming up on "squawk alley." >> hi. indications now about ten bucks higher than that. exciting stuff. we expect to see that start to trade during the next hour perhaps and we've got the o ce coming up with us on "squawk alley." tune in. ♪
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welcome back to "squawk on the street." stocks are hovering near their best levels of the day. if you take a look, we'll drill down into one of these outperforming groups and that's
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the industrials. now sitting less than 5% away from their recent highs that we set back in september. among the names today leading that group higher, you've got united rentals and ww granger and the airline stocks as well. but the best performing stock in the sector is fassy noll. it rows 11% last quarter driven by higher sales and stronger demand for products on industrial vending. that stock on pace for it's best day in three months. i will send it back downtown to you guys at the stock exchange, carl. >> all right. dom, interesting action on some of those industrial names. pelosi reached out to the white house on infrastructure and she's looking for a bill that's at least a trillion, would like to see 2 trillion. we've been down this road a few hundred times, but it would certainly be supportive to these names. >> that chatter comes at a time when the market is looking for that rotation into those types of names any way, outside of boeing it has been affirming
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story there. >> right. retail's been a mixed bag. bed bath, no good. costco disappointed. buy it on weakness. >> costco is a stutter step in terms of their comps and everything. bed bath is a pure special situation, super cheap. maybe it'll come back in the second half. one of the cheapest stocks in the market. >> dow is up 32, 2890 still. "squawk alley" starts in a few minutes.
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good morning. it is 8:00 a.m. at uber headquarters in san francisco and "squawk alley" is live. ♪ ♪ >> good thursday morning. i'


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