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tv   Worldwide Exchange  CNBC  May 8, 2019 5:00am-6:00am EDT

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it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc. all markets. global trade and rising tensions globally what should you be doing with your money following yesterday's massive sell-off we're going to find out. china tumbling overnight on new data showing a big slowdown in exports. one technology company recordly planning massive layoffs in china as that trade war heats up oil prices, they are moving higher iran says it may pull out of key parts of the nuclear deal. lyft posting a massive loss in its first ever quarterly numbers. more on all these major stories ahead on this wednesday, may 8th as worldwide exchange begins
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right now. ♪ >> good morning, good afternoon, good evening welcome from the world you are watching oom brian sullivan the u.s. markets and your money are really being controlled by two places right now washington d.c. and the city that you are looking at over my shoulder here. beijing, china trump trade and tensions all topping your headlines we just got some new information about how strong or maybe weak the chinese economy is right now. more on that in one moment it is decidedly better this morning. at least right now do not look for that sell-off to continue futures are slightly higher. very slightly higher dow up 23, but we are not in the red. of course, all this coming off yesterday where stocks got hit across the board nearly every major index posting
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its worst days since either late march or early january worth noting, however, the nasdaq and the narks 100 are still up 20% context matters. the chinese markets this morning are in the red they lost we'll call it 1% for shanghai about a half a percent for the shen zen composite the chinese yuan at 6.77 treasury yields, they did fall yesterday. buyers came in to bonds a safe haven and that yield got pushed down to 2.46%. that is exactly where bond yields sit right now speaking of trade, that is where we have to begin china and the united states do appear far apart on any type of deal president trump will raise tariffs on 200 billion dollars in goods from china. those tariffs will go to 25% from 10%
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exports took a major slowdown. let's get right now to younis yoon who has more on the numbers and what they might mean >> thanks, brian well, the april trade data missed by a long shot. exports fell 2.7% from a year ago compared to expectations for a rise of 2.3% imports jumped by 4% when the market was waiting for a fall of 3.6% the talk has been that the weak orders for the u.s. as well as europe were the reason behind the weakness in the export number the import number looks as though it was boosted by stimulus measures such as the cut in the v.a.t the talk among a lot of chinese exporters is that they're worried that president trump's tariff threat is going to threaten the potential recovery that they were all hoping for in the export sector in the second half of the year i was speaking to one chinese exporter who sells to the united states who said that he worries that trump's tariff is going to kill his business, and i was also talking to an american
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executive who has a lot of factories here, and he said that if that tariff does go into place, he said that his factories are going to be dead in the water there's been a lot of talk in the supply chain around a concept of china plus one, and it's a strategy that's been around for a couple of careers usually to have a lot of the production in china and plus having suppliers outside of the country. now a lot of smaller companies have been looking at the approach because they're starting to feel that it is critical that they have a supplier outside of the country for every single key component that they have in their supply chain. for example, the strategy -- the suppliers are not only worried about what all of this means for the u.s. tariffs, but also they're concerned that china is going to be digging in its heels even more and more and not really changing its economic goals and its agenda despite all
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of the u.s. pressure now they say that they're preparing for the points of crisis for the next five to ten years, and for them that means looking at different countries in southeast asia, india, ethiopia, as well, but, brian, nobody told me that they were going to move the production to the united states. >> yeah. i mean, we're already seeing that you look at any shirt that's made in the united states. right now it's just as likely to be made in bangladesh or laos as it is in china as well is there any indication -- jim cramer tweeting -- is there a sign that this is a conciliatory tone, that everybody is growing tired of this fight, including the chinese? >> the chiends are definitely very tired of this fight at the same time -- they want to have a trade deal. they wanted all the end. at the same time they're not going to have it end on terms that they don't feel comfortable
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with. >> we've seen the chiends talk about how they want a deal, but they don't want to make certain changes that they feel would if in any way compromise their economic goals and make them look weak. >> if everybody has to win or wants to win, nobody is going to win. younis yoon, thank you very much. it's the last 10% that is more difficult, and that is where we are right now. ultimately, do you believe we get some coif a deal by friday >> i don't know if we get it by friday >> it's wednesday. >> i know. i think this could be one of
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those things where it goes over a weekend or a week, and they figure something out it's in the last 5% of any negotiation where the real issues come out and where the rubber meets the road. the euphoria that we saw in the markets a month ago that this deal was getting closer, i thought was premature. maybe the president is saying now is the time to do it the perspective that people are having maybe away from you and i, the pundits that talk about all this, is that something has to come to a head. if we're ever going to pick a fight, pick a fight while you're strong that's what i'm hearing from a
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lot of people. our rbi goes to exactly what people are thinking, and it is surprising it's wednesday i got choked up talking about the trade deal do we change our equity or bond or cash allocation because of what is going on with the trade fight? >> no. i think as just reported, both sides want to do something they don't want to lose face in what they do >> listen, i mean, we've all been on the recess when you are a kid, right you start maybe shoving. you do something no, you do something then you kind of front and both sides walk off everybody is too afraid to actually do something. what if that happens here? what if there is no deal, and this stretches on for weeks or
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months or years? >> unlike the school yard where you can go back to your desk and be quiet about it and no one will know, this will be out there for everyone to -- >> there's also no teacher >> well -- >> to bring the two sides together >> well, maybe business interests on both sides of the ocean mile actually start moving that >> it's starting to feel a little bit like brexit in a sense where it just kept going on and on and on and on, and then the can was kicked down the road i wonder if this trade fight can just do the same thing >> well, i think part of the problem is that we don't really know what the end point is we just want to have better protections for intellectual property we want to do something better about trade and deficits imports and exports, but it's not like we're moving towards a defined role what's really interesting is both countries could almost declare anything a victory they could just say let's stop arguing. we'll call this even though it's 30% of what they want, and we'll call it a victory. if they're happy, we're happy too. i think it's hard to understand what a victory is going to look
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like quite frankly in this situation. >> so, bottom line, though, your clients aren't panicking, you're not panicking. no major changes should be made right now to how we invest, how we save. >> it's hard to panic when we're in a market that's nier every near the top the dow is still 26,000. the market still looks pretty strong the fundamentals are strong as we saw in the numbers last week. gdp, unemployment, all those types of things. why panic in a situation where the economy is good. >> things do change. cramer was on the end of fast money last night going into his show he made a good point which is, you know, despite the fact that we're -- i'm kind of knocking us in a sense the dow is not the index to watch. 470 points is not what it used to be. the dow is the yankees maybe we shouldn't >> it's the -- >> it's what we know
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it's been around 100 years >> it's 30 companies that keep getting re-engineered and whether they're the emblem attic of what's going on is really not the point. when you look at investing or any other index, so many people are plowing into the same things by just buying indexes and all.
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>> woor up about 100 points. now we're up ten points on the dow. >> it is not actually, all about china right now. there is a major developing story out of iran as well. iran says it will stop complying with parts of the global nuclear dole and begin building stockpiles of enriched uranium and heavy water again. those are both used in nuclear reactors the move comes exactly one year after the united states pulled out of that pact iran's president also drawing a line in the sand giving europe an ultimate mate im. either follow president trump or save the deal by trading and buying oil with iran any country that buys otherwise from iran.
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group prices not moving on that. down .2% we have the list later, look out below. if you think the sell-off may be just be getting started, we're going to show youa potential port in the storm. ♪lean on me, when you're not strong.♪ ♪and i'll be your friend.♪
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if you are just waking up and joining us, futures are actually slightly higher following yesterday's 470 point selloff. only three dozen stocks in the s&p 500 finished higher yet led by aig >> lyft surprising the street in a few ways sales came in better than expected they rose by 95% in the first quarter and revenue guidance was solid. another big surprise was that lyft recorded a quarterly loss of 1.1 billion that is more than its entire loss from last year. let's get more insight now into lyft's numbers from john, analyst at north coast research, who joins us now on the cnbc newsline.
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>> when we looked at the numbers, we found that to be an adjusted basis, an ebida basis, a bit better than expected most importantly it's better than expected on the top line. rider engagement levels and participation levels were quite strong the most important thing we heard in the call was that 2019 will mark the peak year in terms of losses in its business.
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especially with uber arriving at public markets sooner rather than later one of the key battle grounds for them is how do you protect your market share in the u.s how do you prove to the investment community that you're not applying here, but you are truly a strong player, and that you have staying powerthat
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on-line dating match group, their shares up almost 8% this morning. the company reporting a beat on earnings and revenue total revenue avid spriebers grew by double digits thanks to the continued popularity of the tinder dating app and launching a new video fee fewer tore finishder in partnership with snap toyota says profits fell 4% in the january to march quarter as vehicle sales lagged right here
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in north america the automaker did give strong guidance for the full fiscal year expecting profs to increase by about 20% that's largely due to growth in china. brian, back to you >> frank, see you in a bit thank you. on deck, how small business is preparing for a trade showdown with china. kate rogers will join us on set. later, a bitcoin heist for the ages how hackers stole $40 million from one of the world's biggest crypto exchanges wild details when we come back
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>> with this kind of market and these kind of headline driven news, anything can change. well, one thing that is important to remember is that the stock market is not the economy. stock market is a future reflection of corporate earnings what is the economy is small business across america. mom and pop trying to make it on main street. how are they doing kate rogers here now with the latest small business survey kate >> hi, brian good morning things so far looking pretty good on main street. overall our cnbc and survey monkey confidence index increased one point this quarter to 59. now, this is three points from the all-team high of this survey of 62. hit back in the third quarter of
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2018. this is basically in line with the last few quarters. that number actually goes up to 63% for businesses with 50 or more workers and one-third of small businesses, broin, say they do plan to hire in the next year. that is, of course, if they can find workers to fill those roles. >> what is the perception of the tax cut right now? >> that's one thing that helped bolster this optimism and keep
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it at or near report highs we've seen some changes in perception over tax cuts 35% believe that the cuts will have a negative impact on their business 28% believe they'll have a positive impact on their business >> more have a negative than a positive >> that's right. that wasn't the case a few quarters ago. >> near where i am, i'm not kidding, there must be a help wanted sign on every other business is it still just that hard to find workers >> it certainly is hard, and we heard from the nfib just last month saying that they're hearing from more and more businesses that they're lowering the minimum requirements, basically, for a lot of the positions that they're putting out because they can't find workers.
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>> there was an auto mechanic -- >> shake shack is testing that now, too >> four-day workweek >> for managers. >> good stuff. thank you. >> thank you >> let's get a check on the morning's other top headlines, including a coming storm and a coming strike. nbc's phillip mena in new york with those stories >> hey, brian. good morning terror just outside denver after another school shooting erupts in the middle of the day one student was killed and eight others injured police arrested two suspects who they believe are also students at that school houston hits hard by heavy rain
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and flash flooding the office of merge management is urging people to pay attention to the forecast and not brave the flooded roads. the houston fire department ha set up a command post to coordinate high water rescues for stranded drivers >> if you ride to work in an uber or a lyft, there could be a big problem with your morning commute. drivers in more than a dods cities are planning to strike. in the northeast they're striking for two hours from 7:00 to 9:00 in the morning even longer in other cities. up neck, what does oracle see in the future that is reportedly making it lay off nearly 1,000 workers in china later, if tariffs jump on friday, what retailers would be the hardest hit? we've got the list, and we name names. next, futures trading negative we're down 16 and back after this
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>> live in singapore good morning or good evening. >> 5:30 p.m. here in singapore a negative day for the az i can't be markets china markets in particular trying to make a little bit of a comeback in the afternoon, but we did see the sellers went on
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the day. shanghai down by 1%. one patch of green new zealand off one-third of 1%. it's for the first time since 2016 25 basis point cut for that country. brian, back to you now how is the early action going? somebody who i listened to while driving in every morning is live in london. the mood in europe has been relaxed. you can see right behind me ftse 100 is the relative
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underperformer we're down .2% i should tell you for the week the ftse is down 2%. remember, this is another big week for brexit discussions as ever cross-party talks are taking place between the conservative party labour party expectations is we may get some form of resolution soon, but, hey, we've been saying that for a really long time the german index up .1% here right at the top we have siemens pulling up the index overall, though, again for the week we're down about 2.4% for the dax. cac, the french index is trading around flat. all eyes on the ftse index the italian index that's down half a percentage point. you may recall yesterday the yourp even commission published their latest gdp forecast for 2019.
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the sectors that have got hit the most are the ones connected to china autos very much in focus with the potential tariffs on section 232 down 3.7% as well. that is the picture for europe today. a little more multed, but all eyes on those trade discussions, brian. snoo now let's turn back to the united states. there is only one question right now. what should i do with my money in a market that is shown how skittish it is here's sean sh nighter citi personal wealth management it is a good question. are you changing your advice to your clients at citi based on a -- on a trade-related move like we saw yesterday? >> i think the key is to maintain globally diversified portfolio. that isn't a different concept maybe you move it a little bit away from some of the
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economically sensitive sectors if you are worried about trade obviously, you see the semiconductor space taking it on the chin very sensitive to trade. they tend to be very good space when you see it. maybe some portfolio transitioning, but nothing dramatic >> so is it reduction in technology particularly semiconductors if you do that and raise capital, you sell, you raise cash what do do you with that cash? >> you could simply keep it in cash there is a yield there now you also could move it into -- >> a cat's hair whisker of yield. >> yes, of course. in the medium term investment grade bonds. there's less interest rate risk involved because the fed is on the sidelines. can you get a little better return it's wucht portfolio damp epers. it does make sense to have some exposure and you are overweight. >> do you think the gain can be made >> our target in the s&p 500 is
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not set by me. it's set as 2850 if you go by that prospect, then, yes. >> we know tobias very well. well nrn to all the cnbc viewers out there. if that's the case, is this now an environment of return of capital, not return on capital just kind of hold the ship, hold the line for the rest of the year >> i don't think this is the end of the cycle i think that's the most important factor it doesn't matter exactly how december 31st where stocks are probably not it's more of a long-term prospect, and i think you can invest more. i would not be surprised to see more volatility in the back half of this year growth expectations might be a little bit too high. i think earnings expectations might be too high. we might see a little bit of a sell-off later in the year >> there's a guy that i know
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pretty well. he says there's always a bull market somewhere what is undervalued? there has to be an opportunity out there somewhere? >> we've been beating the drum on health care >> the only sector that has done the technical term is squat the last year. >> yes, it underperformed. at the same time you want to buy stocks when they're cheap, right? if you are expecting a spike in volatility, maybe that's a good position to be in. also, elerjing asia, if the trade tensions do die down, it might be an opportunity toic approximate up shares there while they're on sale. >> sean snyder, citi personal wet management maybe we'll -- we'll find out. sean, thank you research have. >> we are also following a major developing story out of iran today. iraq says that it will stop complying with parts of the nooub deal and begin rebuilding stockpiles of enriched uranium in heavy water both of those are used in nuclear reactors.
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we have the results of a pell on what you think about that. and if trump does raise tariffs on friday, what retailers could suffer the most? we have got the list, but, first, how hackers made off with $40 million and a major crypto heist made for the movies. weavth sryex he atto nt.
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the hack comes after recent bitcoin rally. look at that chart bitcoin, if you haven't been paying attention, up nearly 10%? just the past week switch now back to the trade story and the showdown with china. if tariffs are jacked up on friday to 25% from 10% on $200 million worth of goods, in retailers are going to feel that pain some are going to feel more pain than others. morgan stanley put out a list of retailers whose earnings could be negatively impacted the most by a jump in tariffs now, some of the big names on that list? costco and michael's according to morgue app stanley, they could see a 9% hit for their earnings per share b.j.'s wholesale, william sonoma and dick's sporting goods, they could see, look that the, double digit. 12,%, 16%. it gets worse for three other big names. floor and decor holdings look at that there they are where are they they're right behind me. 39% drop in earnings per share
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bed, bath, beyond. according to morgan stanley, lumber liquidator kooz see 139% hatchet being taken to the bottom line on double l. some of the retailers that you need to watch. joining us now is jan, ceo jay rogers as well as a cnbc contributor. jan, you heard the numbers i know you follow a lot of these companies closely. is that reason enough to sell or do you think the market and maybe morgan stanley are overworried about this >> i think they're overworried about it really happening if it really happens, i don't argue with their numbers i think the most likely scenario is that at 12:01 on friday nothing really happens if, in fact, we do get 25% on the 200 billion, it's really a problem for those companies just named, and it's a problem for retail it would take the earnings retail track from about 8% growth to 5% growth for total row tail it's a big number. >> you don't think the tariffs are coming
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>> no, i think -- >> there's a school of thought out there that the tariffs are going to come, but it will be short-term slap the tariffs on, show the chinese you're willing to do it, keep them on for a couple of days, and then go back to the table and remove them as eye sign of good faith either we roach an agreement and say we won, they agreed, no tariffs going on, or they're making progress, we're going to hold off, or we slap them on for a few days, and then we say we're making progress and hold off.
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if are you all in china, do you get out or hold out? >> let me tell you what's happened already three years ago 50% of the supply for apparel and accessories of coming out of china. today it's 15% >> wow >> we've already changed the supply chain two reasons. >> by the way, that was before trump was elected. tloo it certainly was. >> it's a trend that's already been happening >> you would rather be in all those other places that are cheaper. there wasn't enough supply as soon as things got even uglier, ie tariffs, people said, well, let's try to move faster if tariffs would go to 25%, there would be a lot more supply show up a lot faster even yet. yes, the trend was already there, and it just accelerated once tariffs look like they might be a problem.
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if we were funding our own debt as opposed to had have china funding our debt, the government would like to see that as well or if some other part of the world were. >> you're not going to forget this moment in history and think, okay, everybody is fine let's just keep everything in china.
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>> if chooirn's economy is crashing, u.s. companies selling in, they're going to get hurt. they can't change that equation. it's not like you can just -- >> we don't sell that much to china. >> loofr the high-end vendors do >> there are a few >> as the country we don't, but as businesses there's the retail businesses that are really growing nicely in china. high-end brands are very popular. >> is the u.s. economy strong enough to mitigate is the u.s. economy strong enough to mitigate any earnings hit we just showed if the tariffs do get jacked up for a while? can companies compensate for that hit on eps? >> if it's 25% on the 200, yes if it's 25% on 525, it's going to be a lot harder >> we'll see you soon.
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>> the clock is ticking on the trade war. one day, 18 hours and ten minutes until president trump will make good on his promise and ray tariffs by 15% on $200 million worth of goods from china. by the way, you're counting. that's 12:01 a.m. friday morning. that is not all the news out of china. oracle reportedly planning to cut more than 900 employees from its china operations chinese media outlets citing an internal announcement saying the lay offs will come primarily from oracle's local rnd base of about 1600 employees it is unclear exactly where oracle will make the cuts, if they do, but it comes as trade tensions between the u.s. and china escalate oracle has not confirmed or denied the reports, but in a statement to cnbc, they say that
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its cloud business grows, and it will continue to shift and balance its resources. asia pacific region accounts for about 16% of oracle's revenues >> well, as that deadline we just showed you approaches, futures right now are down coming off yesterday's nearly 500 point loss if you are worried about the trade war escalating, how should you prepare yourself for whatever comes next on the trade front? let's bring in tim seymour he is a fast money trader. he is also the cio of seymour asset management and an all-around good guy. >> well, thank you.
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>> i don't think richard -- i don't see us moving in either direction any time soon. i don't think there's more help coming from the fed. i think the market's response so far has been appropriate, and technical levels, if you want to start just getting into the mechanics of the market here, look very, you know -- i think we're at a cautious level. if you want to look at the s&p that's trickled back down to the 50-day or even some credit ratings in the form of high yield index breaking through the 50-day, which it hasn't done to the down side since october 3rd, which, by the way, of the last time we really saw the vix spike like this. >> we always had that better than eriky put i wonder is there a powell put as well. here's what i mean by that if the trade -- if we don't get a deal, if it rachets up, if the tariffs do get increased, can a
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dovish fed come back in and save the day so to speak? >> well, you know, some would argue that maybe this is in an attempt to push the fed in a direction that the administration has been pushing. i think people that expect the fed to be, again, this preemptive cut i think was ludicrous. i think you have a case here where the fed will respond market conditions and financial conditions, which essentially will then have an impact on how the wealth effect. asset prices all the things that the fed have will move the fed. we've seen that in the past. arguably that was part of the dynamic that really had the fed change their language aggressively come early december with an earnings season that was okay, but, again, guide yabs in the near term that wasn't tremendous, i think markets should be cautious here.
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>> do remember the old greek story? i do wonder if the fed is sort of caught between those two rocks. how about the fed report that talked about asset prices and debt levels. it sounded like a fed that was worried about an as elbunl, didn't it? those are not comments that are you getting from a fed that thinks that they should be throwing a lot of gas on the fire, and i think, yeah, that's right. the dynamics here are very, very challenging.
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>> they'll have to answer to the dynamic. rightly or wrongly that's what we've got here, brian. that's the approach for market players and tack tigss >> rur random but interesting thought of the day is a poll on twitter asking for your take on the trade negotiations if you were trump what would you do, a, mac any kind of a deal asap, b, compromise on some stuff, or, c, hold out for all you want the majority of you said you would compromise on some stuff we expected that look at this 45% of respondents said they would hold out to get everything they wanted. only 8% said make a deal as soon as possible. random, but interesting. tim, are you surprised 45% of those people said hold out, stock market be darn
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>> i'm a little surprised, although, look, that's the part of the country that's not holding semiconductors and apple stock. that's -- those are the people that actually are looking at the longer term dynamics of really what were we expecting to truly accomplish in this china trade spat it wasn't a war at one point maybe it's a war right now light be clear also. you heard from intel you heard from texas instruments just recently in earnings season talking about a chinese dynamic which sounded like already there's pressure and they're competing aggressively with chinese companies that do what they do. that c on the rbi this morning choice by your audience, tells you the tale of where a lot of america is right now
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>> holding out tim seymour. fast money trader. thank you very much. dow futures down about 50 points we'll see you tomorrow "squawk box" is next or your d. so why wouldn't you take something for the most important part of you... your brain.. with an ingredient originally discovered in jellyfish, prevagen has been shown in clinical trials to improve short-term memory. prevagen. healthier brain. better life.
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>> futures volatile after the sell-off in the dow yesterday. we're going to show you how the trade turmoil is moving stocks hfd the opening bell a new ultimatum from iran is moving oil prices. the renl i'm is urging european countries to break with president trump in defiance of u.s. sanctions and lyft has been bouncing around overnight after the company posted a big loss, but revenues are better than expected it's wednesday, may 8th, 2019. "squawk box" begins right now.
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live from new york where business never sleeps. this is "squawk box. >> good morning, everybody welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live in the nasdaq market site in times square i'm becky quick along with joe kernan and andrew ross sorkin. it's very good to be here with both of you guys we're all back together for the first time in a while. >> nice to see you so nice to see you >> nice to see you, too. >> yesterday's big sell-off in the markets. the dow posting its worst session since january 3rd. dropping as much as almost 650 points before actually closing down by about 473 points at the close. at the weakest level the dow was down by 2.5% s&p was off by 2.4% at the weakest level and the nasdaq was down by 2.8% at the close, utdown 1.8%. you can see


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