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tv   Street Signs  CNBC  May 28, 2019 4:00am-5:00am EDT

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"street signs. i'm joanna very see chi. >> and i'm maria cattle bottom. european parliaments could put france and germany at odds over the leadership. >> the spread between german and italian bond yields widens on reports the european commission could find rome over its rising debt levels.
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>> chinese extend their record run as stockpiles shrink. >> and french finance minister bruno lemaire says a deal between them cannot lead to any fact closers as he outlines conditions for a merger between the automakers well, good morning and a very warm welcome to "street signs. european markets this morning really treading water. the stoxx 600 teetering around the flat line. yesterday we saw a bounce for the benchmark relapse. a bit of relief floating through markets and now this morning it seems as though investors are pausing for breath as they digest those results and focus on things today. we've got the torey leadership
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contest heating up, nine contenders for the race. in italy there's a suggestion the commission could start action against rome for their rising debt levels and at the european level, leaders are it mooing later today to discuss who's going to take those top seats let's get into the european markets and see how they're fairing in reaction to the developments we are seeing red across german, france, and italian markets. the banks there are suffering the steepest losses on the back of those reports, no doubt about the commission potentially kicking into action their disciplinary plan against italy. the ftse 100 up about 3% let's look at the sectors and see how things are shaping up that way
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banks underperforming currently led by italy at the top of the board we have basic performances outperforming by 1.3%. auto is strong up 0.3% autos were among the strongest performing stocks yesterday. of course, that came on the back of the big news. fiat chrysler and renault teaming up in a 50-50 merger the strategic logic for the deal is seen as very strong open questions about whether it will go ahead, whether there's political support for it so far the reaction has been positive not only for those stocks but the broader sector. finally i want to give you a look at the european yields. as you can see here, the ten-year -- yesterday we saw the italian rise while in germany we saw the ten-year come down we saw the ten-year widen. that was the lowest for nearly 3
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years. year-end fall into their lowest since 2016 jama na? >> excellent it is a big day for european leaders. they'll look at who should succeed. french president manual mack kron and spain's acting president sanchez says it must reflect the results of the elections. they i peer to be at odds with the germans for the commission role now, sylvia is in brussels and has all of the progress. each party puts forth their own perspective leader, sylvia what does this mean for his prospects? he's ultimately for the results
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for the most election. >> exactly the results is the -- the importation of these results is quite flexible in the sense that even though they got the ma jord of the seats, if you compare their performance to how they did back in 2014, they actually lost a lot of seats. we saw in the european elections a lot of support for the liberals and green party some argue that when chusing the next leader of the european commission, it needs to show support for the liberals and green party as well. we need to wait for the summit it happens here later today to see what sort of path the european leaders will take when deciding who gets to be the next president of the european commission but they will also have to decide who gets to be the next president of the parliament of
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the european council as well as the european central banks we heard yesterday from chancellor angela merkel saying that there needs to take a decision on the tot jobs as soon as upon because the sooner this decision is taken, the better it is for the eu. >> translator: both parties stand by the system of the leading candidate, and we will introduce this decision. the european council will take the result of the vote into the account as is stated in the treaty we want to find a solution as soon as possible as the european parliament will meet at the beginning of july. so the positions can be quickly filled after one thing is clear we need to be capable of acting in the o'u, and the sooner we have a decision, the better it is, even if the new commission only takes office later.
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>> so the aim of the eu, of the eu leaders, they'll meet again let's see if there's going to be a compromise on the four top jobs according to the ur yoo peen official, the discussion happening tonight will be only among the 28 heads of states, so no advisers are expected in the room, perhaps to prevent any leaks to the press about the names that are right now on the table. but i will be addressing this issue as well as the overall performance of the political parties in the european elections later on in about an hour with one of the vice presidents of the european commission, valdis dombrovskis now, according to multiple reports, brussels is likely to
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take steps against rome, including a potential fine for breaking eu budget rules the commission is due to issue reports on members' public finances that is on june 5th. so not that far away and obviously jeff after this election where the lega party did retain a majority of the seats there after what happened last year versus five star initially when the results came out, we saw a balance. yesterday the reports we were just talking about, brussels are considering entering into some form of disciplinary program so today we're seeing italy across the board come under pressure, particularly the banks that we just had up. now, speaking following the eu election reports the lega leader said his party's victory was a mandate to change
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the budget rules. >> translator: behind me is the established and defensive results you can analyze and allows me to retain the commitment made with the italian people, to change the bonds in europe, and to change budget policies it should be even more important that another polite let letter be coming. we'll respond with the same politeness saying european security closed yesterday for us and another season has begun. >> as deputy prime minister me says he can't wait to see the contents of the letter it's great to have you on the show was so much to discuss let's start with italy mr. salvini believes he has the mandate to go to brussels and tweak the rules.
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how much does he have because everything going into this election pointed to perhaps a larger turnout more than 30%. in fact, all in all, we ended up with something closer to 25% so perhaps the mandate he was seeking was not as big as he wanted it to be. >> that's reat he'll arrive in brussels and he'll see that things have started to change there. the big levels have been the green. that's a sea change. to be fair, it's been a resounding victory and he sent a message to italian voters. i'm going to brussels to renegotiate. was that realistic in the first place? obviously not. >> indeed it's difficult to put together a cohesive unit of these populist parties from the left and right
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there ee there's a question whether it lasts until brexit there's a report that brussels may be looking to put them into this edp surely that would be a little bit trigger-happy on their parts, given that there are so many questions about who european commission will be in months' time does that make sense they would apply this procedure before there's more clarity about who will lead the commission >> i think it makes sense in that we have an exists set of rules on the european level and either you comply with them or you don't. that is a question that's relatively regardless of who's in charge of personnel actually that's the signal they want to send here in brussels in the sense there's continuity on the front of rules
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but how realistic that they're arriving and we've been there at the end of last year this is not necessarily the outcome we should be expecting here. >> perhaps one final question on italy. the strength of the coalition is now sharply in focus do you think it actually does last, and if it doesn't, what's going to be the trigger. >> it's internal dynamics that have been turned on their heads. the results we've had, comple completely reverse with salvini completely reversed do we believe it happens before the end of the year? i'm fairly skeptical there. >> earlier on in the conversation you said you believe the results of the election shows a big gain for greens and liberals and they're the best that did well out of this surprisingly well compared
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to expectations going in what do you think that means within europe because we got used to and accustomed to a two-party system those two mainstream parties have lost a lot of ground to greens, to liberals, to populist parties. does that just mean any decision is going to mean a lot more difficult to get over the line and if so, what are some areas where we can expect actual cohesion from all of these different units? >> i think that this policy paralysis story is something they've discussed. i think what we're going to see now is a greater focus on policy as such. i don't think this that we're going to move on i think there will be a big push from the greens and liberals to fix a number of issues that the european system and those institutions want to focus on over the coming years. what will that mean?
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we know what they care about certainly with a focus on such things as protecting the environment, and these kinds of thi things i would be skeptical here, but if you look at the greens. think trade policy in the widest sense will be interesting. certainly something to keep an eye on >> i've been watching the bond market we've seen a rally with the exception of italy for obvious reason for me that tells me the bonds market is looking at a further fiscal spend or breaching rules or a bit of opening up the coffers, which is what some were hoping for prior to the elections. that's very interesting when you think about it from a fiscal perspective and it's one of further fiscal consolidation
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rather than spending >> let's be realistic here first of all, they role on the whole fiscal front is extremely limited. this is something we have properly outsourced to member states in a eurozone many of these institutions operating outside the treaties so i think that would have been limited anyway second point is that as the greens are rising toward something like a strong force at the political center, they're becoming more responsive to, you know, calls such as some public finances, especially northern europe. >> we'll leave it here plenty more to discuss after the break. elsewhere in european news austrian chancellor has been removed from office after losing
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kurz h will be formally asked to step down with elections in september. now, one hotly fought race in the uk kicked off monday and it's not the conservative leadership contract. thousands gathered on coopers hill in britain for the annual cheese-rolling contest yes, it exists they chased a wheel of cheese down a hill sometimes injured themselves in the process. it dates back to the 1800 dreads you know, i o em going to tell you my favorite joke what does a narcissistic piece of cheese tell itself every morning. >> you've got me. >> hallow me
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that was bad if you have any jokes, you can tweet us you can also tweet us about the european elections perhaps a little bit more relevant to our show today. >> but another contest besides that one, the torey leadership contact. the number of conservatives grows to ten as some of the main contenders talk up a hard brexit ♪
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♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ applebee's new loaded fajitas. now that's eatin' good in the neighborhood.
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let's get right into brexit. they've become the nining and tenth contenders for the role. they join others in the competition to replace theresa may. the brexit part's success has seen some contenders endorse a no-deal brexit if no beer deal can be found. conservative leader and
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former secretary hunt has said new negotiating team is needed which should include members from the conservative and dup as well just a quick lookle at how they're doing this morning european fixed income has been rallying the last 24 hours ten-year gilt has rallied there. we've seen some pressure on it as well. let's get out to vilum good morning. >> there's this idea that he believes as prime minister he could go back to brussels and try and ask the leaders to reconsider their issue
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particularly that very thorny northern irish backstop. the challenge, of course, is going to be that they will look at the parliamentary arithmetic and see there is no clear majority for no deal some of the ultimate threat of any british negotiating team that the uk will lead the european deyueuron without a deal is not one they're likely to take seriously. you have to look at candidates outside the government to see those most stridently and ardently in favor of a deal. that includes foreign secretary jeremy hunt's predecessor and boris johnson. he's someone who thinks that the october 31st deadline must be adhered to and that couldn't collude a deal you've got dominic raab.
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he's hinted at the idea that they could take that decision to lead without parliamentary approv approval you have esther. they pulled out at the last minute having been the only viable contender left and that paved the way for may to become prime minister those serving under theresa may, jeremy hunt, the longest serving minister, having been health service secretary before that. then you have individuals like the man who took over the responsibility for security, sajid javid. at the same time, the very damages results for the
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conservatives in the european parliamentary elections promming him and others to say brexit is a priority that includes matt hancock he's saying, again, it's mission-critical in an article for the "daily mail" this week those slight hi in favor of a soft brexit. no matter what type they do, it must be done effectively in order to restore trust not only in the conservative party but the entire body par la mpd in the uk. >> thank you very much for the latest let's get back to carson nilk, director of intelligence hearing from vilum about the possibility of hope, is there any scenario where they're going to be actually willing to reopen it >> no, but then obviously the
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good thing is the deal consists of the withdrawal agreement and political declaration. so i think it's the second half that we're looking at again to add some language, to add greater clarity potentially about the nature of the future relationship so you can argue in the uk in the end you'll need the backstop that's the kind of things we're looking at realistically on that basis, does it make senn to look at the contenders to likely change the political declaration? >> yeah, but i think we know where the conservative membership stands on the issue of brexit. they want to hear the next leader is willing to contemplate the deal the game begins anew we're now in the face where you need to look at raising no deal. the interesting part come as of
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august/september when it's time to face reality. >> of course, just looking at the european election results as it pertains to the uk, the results clearly show that any party that was looking for some form of a compromised solution was too much on the fence got punished, whereas, those with pure ideology or pure stances, either no deal brexit or romaine are the ones that got it sit so polarizing that there are only two options, no deal or no brexit. >> that's true under the electoral parliament selections. the big thing is if you go, you vote in this system. that means in every constitue constituentcy, you bring the two sides together once we go, there's no way of
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appeasing both sides of the i. i don't think there's a way to appease to both. >> that's why you look at having a second referendum. what question would they put on the ballot at this point. >> it's unclear. this is one of those issues that makes it very unlikely we end up with a second referendum at the end of the day. >> yet all the parties calling for a referendum have been very vocal about it so all the signs are pointing to either another general election. >> again, under this electoral system that worked out i think if labor goes into a general election and positions itself clearly for staying or for leaving in the quickest possible way with no deal, they
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will get split in the middle that's the big problem they're facing. >> it's not an easy one. we're certainly not going to solve it in a ten-minute segment. we very much appreciate your view carson nickel from teneo intelligence. coming up french minister bruno lemaire lays out the conditions for any deal between renault and fiat chrysler. details after the break. (danny) let me get this straight. after a long day of hard work... have to do more work? (vo) automatically sort your expenses and save over 40 hours a month. (danny) every day you're nearly fried to a crisp, professionally! (vo) you earned it, we're here to make sure you get it. quickbooks. backing you.
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welcome back to "street signs. i'm julianna tatelbaum. >> and i'm you manna bercetche. >> bond yields widen under report the european union could fine them. >> stockpiles shrink.
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>> and french finance minister bruno le maire says a deal between renault and fiat chrysler kept outline the deal as mergers between the carmakers. let's get into the details announced yesterday. the proposed 50-50 merger between fiat chrysler and renault. it must protect jobs and the interests must be listed at board level. that would create the third large earth carmaker it includes a dividend pailable across fiat shareholders the merger would form a holding company that trades out of amsterdam and seats on the board importantly would be split between fiat which would hold
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four and renault it's set from 15% to 7.5%. hence why it's very important where the french government stands on this. >> let's talk about this in a little more detail we're seeing a beg rally with the likes of renaul. we saw that yesterday. also the association we saw a big bounce of mitsubishi this is a major development. what's interesting about this is their intention to get the key stakeholders particularly as it pertains to the french government and nissan in order to getgo the go-ahead. all maetly what that would mean is both nissan's stake in renaul and the french government's
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stake in renault would be diluted, perhaps halved. >> yes you'll river earlier this year peugeot was interested in a tie-up with fiat chrysler. none of this is new. the auto sector long has been waiting for further consolidation but it's never quite delivered. if this deal goes ahead, it could be the start of more. >> it could become the largest carmaker in the world. >> it would be critical that the economies of scale are par of why the analyst community overall is behind this deal. one of the big questions earlier on "squawk box," we had a guest commenting on this is who would run the endty. you know, of course, renault previously run by carlos ghosn, they've got new leadership there, fiat chrysler run by another. >> what's interesting is mr.
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marchione and carlos ghosn were big proponents of this european merger, tie-ups going ahead. this has been a pipe dream for both of them and we're finally seeing the results of that, but we have to see whether or not the french government will accept that. but it looks that the deal is in pretty positive territory already and the analyst kmunl reaccepting has been quite positive. >> absolutely. we'll be continuing follow this deal as it progresses. let's shift geerls president trump has excepted an olive branch to japan saying a deal is possible washington is willing to begin talks with tehran and he doesn't want to see, quote, terrible thpgs happen he's not seeking regime change in iran, but he wants to prevent the country from gaining nuclear weapons. now the foreign minister hit back accusing the u.s. of caution regional tensions and,
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quote, hurting the people. according to multiple results a deal would take place in the second half of the year. alibaba raised a record $25 billion since its ipo on the new york stock exchange in 2014. you man y joumanna. >> again, the markets digest the results of european elections in sore far as it's going to relate to the brexit production is all of that to deal with in the uk markets but we did have for the most part of the die minors doing
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well that's one of the reasons that the footsie is performing. we did say autos are very much in focus they have been the green spots on boards but generally speaking you can see all of these indices are coming under selling pressure then italy also trading in the red. 280 points down 1.1%. we were talking about this earlier. italian banks are coming under pressure and italian bonds on reports that brussels may consider fining them or putting them in a deficit procedure program in order for them to bring their public finances back on board there are questions whether they will do that but this is the picture for them one day after memorial day it's not that pretty switching on, you can see the
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euros traying on the back food 111.90 i keep saying this over and over again. they've been in the tight rank of 111, 112. that's the picture today trading alile bit weaker, some of the risk off for european equities as well. the yen is seen as a bit of a safe haven flow going into that currency to a tune of about a quarter percent and then cable continues to trade on the back foot as well 126.60 again, here investors are dealing with a multitude of didn't problems. one is leadership, one is the director of brexit and what it would look like with many of the prime minister contenders talking about the possible of a managed no deal brexit scenario which economists have deemed to be very negative for the economy
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overall. so let's take a quick look at u.s. futures as well as we head into the yourself session coming back from the holiday. slightly in the red, nothing major compared to how some of the european equities are fairing this morning of course, all eyes from the follow-on from japan and the future of trade talks between not just u.s. and japan but u.s. and china as well. >> well, on that note, japan's economy minister said there's no time for a trade deal, but he also told reporters that american officials would work to address any concerns it comes after they hinted an agreement with tokyo would be announced. we have more on the visit to japan now. >> reporter: it was an opportunity for president trump to address his audience as united states commander if chief while marking his memorial day
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visit. he paid a visit to a u.s. naval base near tokyo, and while he was addressing american soldiers, he used that opportunity to highlight the military solidarity with japan take a listen. >> i want to thank my friend and your prime minister. he's an zroot map, for his commitment to improvening the defense capabilities which also extents the security of the united states of mark. >> he once again highlighted the intention of buying more than 100 f-35 stealth aircraft from the united states. this is certainly a point he can call a victory that he can bring home as well in the meantime, many questions at this point as president trump wrapped up his four-day visit to japan. will he come back to jan for a summit can they strike a comprehensive
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trade deal, what will that look like and can they make that happen by the month of office. >> moo enchooel chinese officials called on a plan this after he told reporters during a visit to japan that america is not ready to make a deal with beijing, but chinese foreign affairs minister says the u.s. has not been consistent in its ongoing approach with trade talks. very for a period of time you may have noticed ta the u.s. side including some high-ranking figures have had various sayings. sometimes they say a deal will soon be reached. other times they say it's difficult to reach this deal, but you can look retrospectively that during the same period, china th that china's expressions could be settled through frndly conversations and negotiations
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secondly, we always uphold that china u.s. negotiations including economic and trade negotiations must be based on mutual respect, equality and benefit. >> let's discuss it. it's dwrt to have you with us on the show lovely to see you again. they're saying the u.s. has not been kansas ciconsistent when it the trade talks. a lot of the grievances the u.s. has with china are similar grievances they have with japan. yet the approach that japan has been very different to approach the u.s. is taking with china. what do you point that down to >> i would say on the one hand there are similar issues on the other hand because japan and the u.s. compete over higher value added goods. also another element that's sometimes missed is the security
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relationship and the like. japan, of course, you can look back a couple of decades and they with the big economic threats and still are. yo have goods and technology but with japan it ooh is a smaller number of issues i would say they put treasure on notes. >> with china, there are much bigger issues they need to think about in the long term i was at the cte last week certainly sentiment has changed a lot in that respect over the last couple of weeks and since that weekend tweet storm from the president. would you say the market is pricing in a protracted trade
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war at this point or is there still hope we may get a solution sometime soon? >> i don't think they're pricing in yet a trade war in part because it's hard to fully do that and some of the -- i mean we've had markets come off, particularly equities, technology but we've seen if anything we're not even necessarily back to where market pricing was at the end of last year some has to do with there's a lot of optimism or pessimism depending on the position and that i think is addressing it. but i would say that the market actors are not -- are not ready to -- are waiting to see what a deal will look like. and even if there's a deal on the trade side, it's hard to see a pathway toward technology. >> it seems like a circular relationship between market
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reaction and the direction of trade talks. so do you think that market pressure is ultimately gong be what drives a resolution on the trade front? >> i think you're right. there's almost a pavlovian response, markets doing well and u.s. government actors doing well playing hard bawl, and that's something i think investors have held hope for in the last couple of months. if they sold off a lot, the president would want to make a deal i think that it's asymmetric i would say the more pressure there is on markets the more likely the u.s. government would want to make a deal. but he also really wants something to sell on the campaign trail he wants to say it's the best deal and he doesn't want someone on his flank saying, i don't think that's a great deal.
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beyond the markets the path of the u.s. economy is very important and we're seeing some signs of slowing down. >> now, the bulk of the u.s. has been on china, but, of course, he's been in japan this weekend. the eu is coming into focus. i'm curious how you see that playing out not just in terms of how much pressure, how much focus he's going to put o p the eu, but what kind of tools he's likely to use in that trade dispute. is there going to be tariffs again? >> there's going to be a risk. last week we had the report on autos come out which highlighted japanese and european automaker sort of concern, and not only highlighted actual imports but also to some extent u.s. manufacturing in the u.s. in those companies which you would think would be a positive issue. so that had a reprieve.
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this is another fragmentation of the european union. >> we'll leave it there. more to talk about rachel ziemba. coming up, find out who took out football's biggest championship in the playoff final. ♪
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♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ applebee's new loaded fajitas. now that's eatin' good in the neighborhood.
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the birmingham side went two goals ahead early in the second half after a mistake by derby keeper it's widely known as the richest game in football and villa are said to be 170 billion pounds better off after their promotion
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to the premiership. and terms have been agreed with the sports direct owner of mike ashley over new castle united in a statement to the new castle chronicle, both sides are, quote, working hard to complete a deal at the earliest opportunity. according to multiple record reports and the british media, the deal is valued at 350 million pounds >> yesterday futures were closed for memorial day it looks like a mixed start. no massive moves according to those implied opens there. we've got some housing market data coming out later today for the market to digest finally let's take a look at u.s. treasuries as well. the u.s. treasury yield has dropped to its lowest level since october 17 you have a picture the ten-year trading at 2.27 per
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senn joining us online from new york tony natale. tony, thank you for joining us this morning the housing market important to the u.s. economy i'm curious where you think we are when it comes to the u.s. economy. >> we believe we're late cycle and a couple of reasons for that first of all, you have several parts in the u.s. that have averted. you have equity markets that have started to pick up comparable to what you saw in the late 1990s in addition to that the labor market is arguably the strongest it's been in the states really since the late 1960s the unemployment rate is below that of the nonaccelerating rate of employment contemplated by the fed. there are some reasons we think
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we're late in the cycle. if you look at later establishes in the past, you can have returns that are markedly different depending on what you look at. >> when you say you're late cycle, would it have been late cycle before the slowdown would have commenced how much do you think the trade war is going to have on the assessments of u.s. economy. if you're looking at the feds tracking growth, atlanta feds have growth tracking only 1.3% so what type of situation does that put the actual fed in >>ite's good question. we've seen a lot of numbers come out in terms of what the aggregate impact will be we don't think it's going to shave more than 25 basis points to 50 basis points off of gdp. we're probably more concerned about the immy indicatiplicatios
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will cost and how they're going to make decisions going forward. that's kind of the uncertainty you've seen within the financial markets. that's why you've seen an obvious pickup. >> i'm going to bring in another voice, rachel ziemba how do you think the impact is especially the cost/push factors? i mean clearly it's bad for growth. >> the biggest thing is it adds to the uncertainty of demand growth that's more a global issue than the united states. what we're seeing with the tariffs is also a certain amount of demand being forward and pushed back to move ahead to system of the time line. that's one factor. the other one on the inflation side is that it distorts some of the inflation and inflation basket and maybe offsets some of the downward push of inflation
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that would come from technological innovation and the like you can see very much the part of the basket that's susceptible to tears if we can call that increasing as tony highlights, this is a tight labor market we've not seen a lot of average in real wages and i think that's a puzzle the fed is watching and watching sort of closely the other factor can come through the financial market channel. the fed was very worried at the end of last year about financial conditions tighteninging and that, i think, is going to be a factor going forward. >> thank you very much tony, i want to come back to you on the question of impact of tariffs. yesterday president trump in japan said that the chinese are paying billions of dollars in tariffs and they're not going to be able to continue to do so, but is that really fair? is the onus coming down on the chinese to take the burden of the tariffs or is it the u.s. consumer >> well, ultimately, you know, we don't know for sure how it's going to play out. at some point it could be the u.s. consumer that ultimately
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pays you know, i often see estimates that would indicate the average consumer would absorb anywhere we'll see if those projections come to fruition it's going to be difficult to know whether it's an issue the u.s. consumer is going to face president trump thinks the effects will be more negative on the economy than the u.s. >> thank you for your thoughts tony natale, senior vice president for bryn mawr. thanks for joining it. unpredictable crohn's symptoms following you?
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a potential mega merger topping your five. they want to create the third biggest carmakers. the full details ahead on what would be an end-changing deal. speaking of deals, president trump says we're not ready to make one with china over trade just yet we'll take you live to beijing and washington live with reaction. alibaba looking to make billions some good news for your wallet at the pump as we kick off the summer and maybe it is prime real estate after all


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