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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  June 20, 2019 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

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continue to say that the dow would be 10,000 points higher if not for qf, which is unprovable and unlikely, but he can still saying, right, without having to show it? >> exactly record all-time closing high on the s&p 500 today. that does it for "closing bel " bell.." >> "fast money" picks it up right now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market side overlooking new york city's time square i'm melissa stocks hitting a record high today with energy and tech leading the way and a top technician will tell you how to catch the rally. plus one name sitting out the party, tesla golden sac slashing it we will tell you what has an analyst worried. we are back, the s&p 500 surging to an all-time high and the dow on track for the best mont since october 2015 less than 1% away from its record high as it sets on wall
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street that the federal reserve is likely to cut rates as soon as next month. with stocks back at record highs do you trust in the fed and keep pressing the buy button, guy >> no. i know it is wedding season -- >> don't use this song. >> it is amazing she is in my head if you are thinking about playing this song, don't do it. >> there's no circumstance this song should be played at all. >> sounds like he played it at his wedding. >> no, i didn't. >> anyway, back to the record high. >> yes, label me skeptical listen, let's go back a couple of months and i thought the s&p 500 would get down to 2650 it got down to 2730 so i was off there. here we are. i understand why it is happening, and frankly the reasons don't matter if the market went up and you were long you made money and that's the bottom line i will tell you, label me skeptical with 24% of global sovereign bonds with negative yields, with gold making a five-year high, seemingly breaking out to the upside, with
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utilities making all-time highs, with every asset on the planet seemingly going higher, you have to ask yourself, is the fed fighting the wrong battle. i say absolutely yes you know what else i think they know it but they've been forced into it. >> guy, favorite tv show -- >> almond brothers. >> with a boat and shipwreck >> "happy days." "gilligan's island. >> favorite woman on the island? >> marianne. >> not tina louise there is no alternative. we can use the tina phrase for stocks because what is the multiple the s&p should trade at if you have yields in negative territory? i think you have a place here -- i don't think you should count out the fed ever in fact, that's been the dynamic of the last eight years. for a fed that probably exceeded all expectations yesterday, i'm not saying you shouldn't be structurally cautious, but you could be tactically optimistic here there's very little reason why you shouldn't be. >> really? very little reason listen -- >> cautious but tactically optimistic. >> the last two rate-cutting
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cycles the fed engaged in 2000, fed funds above 6%, twoe2007, 5% when you think about when we get into the rate cutting cycles, what happened? the s&p 500 was cut in half both times from the highs here. here we are. we know where inflation is we know that the fed is supposedly concerned about inflation where it is right now. they're really concerned about global growth when you think about it so we're going to start cutting rates right now? don't think it is maybe just 25 bips it may be 50 bips. i know it was a big discussion yesterday. what do you think equity is going to do at the all-time highs where we've been in january of 2018, sold off hard 12%, and then obviously q4 last year, sold off 20% and we just had this 5%, 6%, 7% sell-off from the highs, also. >> that's true, but i think there's a difference between now and 2001, 2007 both of those rate cut cycles were recession imminent. we were going into a recession i know we are probably sick of hearing about it at this point
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you look at 85, 95, these were periods where the s&p rose because we weren't heading directly into a recession. it seems too easy, but i think the fed is going to cut rates. look what gold is doing. philly fed was week this morning. i think they cover a cut in july i don't know whether they should we can talk about whether they should or shouldn't, but i think they will. i think it is enough to support multiples and push the market higher in near term. >> isn't that your point you're not sure they should but they're going to, that's all that matters dan, your points are totally valid. i said for the last month i don't think two rate cuts is anything to get bullish about but i don't think it is a rate cutting cycle. i don't think it is required you have a dynamic, you can make an argument the long end of the curve below the curve is a -- >> you don't think it is a rate cutting cycle in that you don't think they will cut or you don't think one will lead to another cut? >> i think it is fine tuning of policy that got overly tight i'm not telling you that i think that the global economy is -- i see all of the structural things we all see right now i'm telling you that i don't think that the fed right now
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should be in a position where they're going to have to cut three or four times in the next couple of years. in fact, i don't think the market is telling you that either. >> no, i mean the markets are predicting it. so they are telling you that. >> they're telling you two rate cuts between now and the end of the year. >> yes, exactly. we had a guest on "power lunch. today. >> i believe it is on from 1:00 to 2:00. love that show. >> yes he has been right on yields. when the yield was at 2.7% earlier this year, he said yields were definitely going to two, and we will be on two. >> here we are. >> here we are he was right now he predicts 1 1/2% so in theory, that should be pave the way for higher equity valuations, but at what point do rates get low where it doesn't >> that's a great question i thought we were passed that point 50 bases points ago. clearly i was wrong. i'm not an economist i say it all the time, i'm not smart enough or humorless enough to be an economist again, you are getting to levels now where what is the bond market telling you what is the gold market telling
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you? in my opinion gold market tells you, hey, fed, there's inflation out there. guess what if they think they can turn on a dime when they finally get it, they're entirely wrong if you listen to tom farley, another georgetown grab just on "power lunch" another fantastic cnbc show. >> "closing bell." >> yes, "closing bell" i lost my train of thought. >> go on. >> he said should they be cutting. no, as a matter of fact they shouldn't be cutting he went as far to say maybe they should be hiking i know it sounds preposterous, but if you continue to do the same thing over and over again hoping for a different outcome, you know what that's the definition of. that's what happened for the last ten years yes, asset prices have gone higher, but the economy hasn't gotten better. >> if fed is going to cut to generate inflation, why didn't we get a bit of inflation at basically zero rates if you look at where they like to look at inflation, the volatile food and energy sort of thing, we're at 1.6%, look where if we get the two cuts in 2019
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we are basically going to be at zero again real rates, right so what are we doing here? where is the crisis? if everything we are hearing out of unemployment, out of growth. >> there can't be an insurance cut, isn't there a case for a insurance cut? >> i hate to play switzerland, but i'm certainly not saying we are going to 3500 any time soon. i'm saying in the short run there's a lot of pessimism i think the long short community is still very net short. i think you have a dynamic where the fed is not your enemy right now. i think trade policy probably could get worse, but i bet it could get better going into an election cycle that's the setup we know earnings will be poor. we know equities need to trade at higher multiple we are seeing deflationary spiral around the world halted temporarily. that's good for equities. >> that's what it is, a multiple story. if they cut -- maybe they shouldn't be cutting but it is enough to bolster multiples in the near term. if earnings come in -- say we get to 168 a share, earnings estimates come down, we have a beat rate, we get to 168 if we maintain the current trailing 12-month multiple where
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we are right now at 18 1/2, it gets us to 3,100, it is not exciting, 5% from here, but higher over the long term i think you will have problems but multiples are bolstered in the short term. >> why do you think small caps are confirmed, they don't even break a few months high if you look at the russell, i mean it is stuck in a rate it doesn't break out. it is 8% from the all-time highs last year. you have that and banks. obviously we know the yield curve is an issue here, but banks can't really get going here i see a lot of things that just suggest that this is very much about an s&p trading at 16, 16 1/2 times which seems cheapish relative to where rates are. you are going to rip the s&p, rip bonds, we are leon cooper on the network, another fine show. >> sure. >> talking about when you have, you know, what, when you have interest rates right here, it is the only game in town. >> what you are saying -- >> tina louise. >> tina louise. >> why hasn't your fang --
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>> my fang >> the new highs here, there's a lot of stuff going on seems like it is justice, trade, and the s&p 500 and they're pushing it up and everything else -- >> we are talking about the market here. we are not really talking about stocks although we often do. what i hear you saying though is why shouldn't it go higher i'm saying maybe some of the things that were historically the leadership, that narrow leadership that at times you nailed has been too narrow and given back and fang was that fang is not leading, you're right, and utilities are so is health care, so are defensive. but rotation is part of the market as well just to say that the market can't continue to move higher because we all are not happy that the fed has to step in and do what it has done for the last ten years, it has largely worked. >> but going back to the negative rates, okay why do we have 12 trillion in sovereign negative rates you have central banks worried about a deflationary cycle we don't really feel that way here in the u.s., yet we are following them in that same path if that path is going to push
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the s&p 500 to unsustainable levels, lacking growth, then we eventually have a financial crisis that may emanate here or somewhere else, then we are really screwed then we are in a situation just like the past -- >> i'm not feeling great about the tool box right now. >> -- it is cut in half. if it goes from 3200 down to 1600, you know where it was? it was the top in 2000, it was the top in 2007, and then you get back -- that's brilliant support, people. >> all of that said. >> 1600, s&p 500. >> all of that said, very well said, where do you stand on the markets? are you short? are you long where are you? >> listen, i think there are interesting spots here to me, semis is an area that i think you can sell i think you can sell the excella, the heb, the etf that tracks homebuilders. it is at an important level here some would say if you are bullish it looks like head and shoulders bottom to me i think the data is mixed there. i think you can probably short that against levels. if you are trying to short stuff, you are trying to be opportunistic, it has been with the market has corrected
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if you are playing for a breakout to new all-time highs after we have already come all of this distance, i don't think you will get much. that's why when you said 3,100, fine, have a ball. go from 2,950 to 3,100 and grind it. >> who said 3,100? >> jeff. >> are you having a ball >> i said not exciting. >> but it is not a fantastic risk/reward either. >> i agree. >> when you consider the downdrafts we had over the last few months. >> maybe it is not fang, but why can't apple rally in a market where things are cheap why would google, down 10% off the highs, rally with a multiple 22 times in an environment where they're not hurt by trade wars we had rotation in stuff that was underperforming, and health care was -- had headline risk, et cetera. look at some of the great companies. i look at great companies that have been under performing here in a market where people have to reach out the risk curve, and i wonder why they aren't going to buy them. >> we were talking about the
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july cult. it is looking almost certain after the dovish comments by the federal reserve yesterday. low rates usually mean cheap stocks let's look at the chart of the day. jeff brought it along. >> i like that chart of the day. >> it means support important the short term. >> it is a perfect transition because it is exactly what we're talking about, short term versus long term. i have said it, every strategist probably said it lower rates justify stock valuations where they are today. is that true i say sort of, because in the near term i do think the equity risk premium -- so the differential between basically stock valuations and the ten-year treasury -- it is blown out to over 300 bases points typically when you are in the bucket, forward stock returns for the next year are good because low rates support multiples in the near term i think the problem with the argument, what everyone tends to forget, low rates don't justify the low valuations for long-term investors. aqr put out a great paper a number of years ago, "fight the fed model" and they broke the interest rate regimes into
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quintiles. they had the lowest returns by far. when people are forced out the risk curve they buy equities, valuations go up and you end up with long-term forward returns not good near term, yes it is the only game in town. rates are so low for our invest yoors we say 60/0 may not be what it was long term we are in a low interest rate environment, low equity return environment and low -- >> does that mean go 70/30 >> it might. it all depends, right. you have to work backward from your goals you can't say, well, i don't want to take that risk so i'm taking 60-40 and whatever it gives me it gives me we have to work backwards in what the axis is going to produce for you and you get back to the risk and decide what to do maybe it involves introducing alternatives to the portfolio. there are different levers you can pull, maybe more international, things you can do, but you can't sit back and think a 60/40 u.s. and -- >> it is going to work the same
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way in a higher rate environment. >> in the near term, no. >> an aqr study, but did it matter, the peaks and troughs in terms of interest rates? if we're in an environment where interest rates are muted and the range is in this tiny little band, will that -- will that sort of change the outcome >> it is hard to say i almost think it makes it worse though because rates have been so low that it has pushed people into equities maybe more so than ever before. think about endowments, foundations, pensions, funds, all of these institutions that have to meet high return targets. they are pushing into equities with rates low maybe you are in a band without the snap back to high levels you could argue we remain here for long time and valuations remain higher than normal for a while, but it is not going on forever. >> i think the chart is fantastic. everything you said is spot on one day does not a trend make, as you know, mel we said it many times on this show it was higher on the day, number
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one. number two, we didn't talk about for the first 14 minutes of the show magically is the fact that maybe magically there's some u.s./china trade deal happens over the next -- >> sure -- >> i don't know, couple of week. what does that do? how does it change the calculus for the fed? are we in an environment where a potential deal is actually -- >> is a salable moment. >> -- is bearish think about that during the commercial yes, mel >> or could it be a win/win for the markets -- >> and then we have chrissy teigen's song. >> the fed is not going to move -- the trade deal happens tomorrow, they're not changing their stance any too many soon. >> i agree, but remain dovish with the option because why not? >> they're not going to get hawkish over height. coming up as the rally rate is on, a technician says more gains ahead. he will tell us the three names he is buying slack gets to work the unicorn soaring. the traders tell you where they think the stock is heading next. beyond meat stock has been healthy for investors but how
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healthy are the products launching a massive campaign warning chemicals are lurking in the food see will be here to make her ca live from times square here in new york city, much more "fast money" right after this.
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welcome back to "fast money" tesla shares heading downhill after a bearish call from goldman sachs. that's our call of the day analysts saying while the electric automaker has some positive demand for model x, s and 3, still below wall street expectations and not sustainable. the firm slashing from 158 to 200 as the stock urged at 19% this month, best performance since 2018 is the july rally about to hit the skids. tim, are you still short >> i am. most is through options and therefore, you know, i would make an argument this is a decent opportunity to get volatility to the short side but here is what goldman went out and said goldman is pointing out the demand side. they think second quarter deliveries will be okay. they think they pulled a lot of levers to get them to a decent place. what is a decent place, by the way? 90,000 to 100,000 i think is what the market needs to see to get to 360, 400 for the year,
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which i think is highly improbable, but what do we know? this is a company that you could pick three or four different tangents the obvious one most investors don't care about is the corporate governance and transparency it is about balance sheet and restructuring and how they get through, about demand or operational excellence or lack thereof. pick your poison i don't think any of these places are places i would want to belong to stock the second one is rebalancing the sheet which worries me the most. >> would you rather -- this is a twist. i don't know if it will be your favorite version of the game, would you rather long or short tesla here >> short. >> knowing -- knowing that in two weeks we get delivery numbers? >> short tuesday, thursday, two days ago th thursday we talked about tesla again. two days ago was thursday -- tuesday is what i said i brought up carter worth. i said remember carter worth a couple of weeks ago?
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>> sure. >> he nailed it, he said you go along tesla a buck 75 or so. he said the upside is 225 or so. we talked about pulling the rip cord if you were fortunate enough to carry the trade to the levels for at least a day and a half it has proven correct to answer your question, absolutely at least goldman sachs' timing is right this time and i think there's down side risk. >> for more on tesla and all of the calls, go to here is what else is coming on fast i'm melissa lee. yes, that's what stocks did today. if you missed a launch, don't worry. a top technician will give you three names to catch the ride. plus, apple sitting out the rally today. >> sound the alarm. >> we will tell you why the tech giant is warning things could be about to g aotet l worse there's much more "fast money" right after thisuse beyond risk. welcome to the neighborhood, guys. there is reward.
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welcome balk to "fast money" stocks surging to an all-time high but not everything on wall street joined on the record rally. bob pez annie at nyc with the details. bob. >> hello, melissa. the market is celebrating the new highs and sectors and stocks that got us there, including consumer staples doing great, real estate, utilities and some, not all, technology stock goes but there are wide swaths of the market really lagging significantly. so, for example, energy stocks, the small cap russell 2000 and the dow transports, all more than 10% off of their 52-week highs. they're not joining in the party yet, but some sub sectors are doing a lot worse. tariffs and the global slowdown have been killing the metal and mining stocks. they're 25% off of their recent highs. medicare for all -- remember that one that was just a killer for the
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pharmaceutical stocks. they're still 22% off of their recent highs then you have the tariffs and the relentless march killing retail, still down 20% from the highs. and then we have the low rates this is killing the banks. they're still 15% off of their highs. finally, this might be a little surprise to some people, semi conductors still in this group, 11% off their highs. remember, they became the poster child for the trade wars, dropping nearly 20% in may alone at the height of the trade conflict since then they've come back a little bit despite all of the new highs, this rally is largely based on central bank euphoria and on trade euphoria, not on fundamentals earnings will be coming soon i am looking forward to that we will finally get a clearer indication of how real, if at all, that global slowdown really is back to you, melissa. >> thank you, bob. bob pisani at the nyc. dan touched on some of the points earlier in the discussion some sectors are not confirming
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the rally. transports, russell -- >> small caps. >> yes how concerning, jeff, in your view is that >> i think it is concerning to some degree, but, look, you have to think about where we are in the business cycle pmis peaked, heading lower we would call it a slower expansion phase of the cycle typically what you would see lead are things like utility, things in the growth sector. what works in this phase of the business cycle is working. overall the market can be higher as long as tech participates but leadership may shift more to the defensive side. >> to tim's point also, i think to get meaningful highs where we are right now, to breakout and sustain these levels, i think you need the maga or the fang or that sort of thing to rotate back into it it is where the torque will come maga other than microsoft, they have not made new highs. fang, i don't think any of those made new highs to me that's where you get the breakout if it is going to happen. >> in terms of things that lagged or have been the ones that really underperformed on the way down, i still think if
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you expect the fed to do what it is doing, if you expect the interest rate differentials to mean the rest of the world's currencies won't be as under pressure, you have to be buying germany here you have to buy emerging markets. you have to buy alibaba, ten cent how about samsung? again, how about some of the mega cap tech names that haven't bounced with some of the rest of tech that's if you believe everything we started this show with, i think those are things that are absolutely catch up. i would go back to the interest rate sensitive side. if we think we're going to 150, you want to own home depot and lowe's, restoration hardware, sherwin williams these are all plays on the consumer either getting a refi having more money throughout their house and having money to spend. >> the market hitting record highs. what is left to buy. let's go to todd good on-. he has three names to catch up on the rally what are you looking at? >> let's look at the s&p 500 and see if it is vulnerable to be broken out s&p is in blew
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the put-to-call ratio, the occ all options, put-to-call ratio is down here you will see it down around .7 or .6, a point where you would expect to see selling come into the s&p. so take a look at 17 here to the late -- sorry, early' 18 here we go, low put-to-call, s&p tops out same thing, late '18, low put-to-call, s&p tops off. we had a sell-off here, we came back here in '18 what you will notice though is that put-to-call is not yet at those low levels so we're not seeing a enough put buying to signal that people are afraid enough in order to really turn that market over. so i think we need to see this guy drop a little bit, and that will allow the s&p to move higher back to your discussion, really interesting over the last two weeks. if you look at the consume your discretionary and technology relative to the s&p turning up, staples, utilities, real estate
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is turning down. you are seeing a push back into that three names we're looking at here we have chevron, oil up 6% today, a really nice move up here a little bit of a trigger here on this resistance if we can get a push up through about 125, chevron i think is good like 3.8% yield in chevron going to technology, cisco, really good here we have a bit of a channel here. can't quite get up through the 58 region here if we can get that push up towards 3,000, inch think cisco will break the range, a little bit of a catch-up trade. finally tim mentioned it, home depot. i think it is a big interest rate play with rates dropping, moving into homebuilders, home improvement, home depot is a big huge top at 210 here i really like this stock up and through -- i think if home depot can break through, a lot of buy stops go off, especially fields go down and the market stabilizes i like home depot up towards around 240. >> broader market question,
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todd what levels do we need to hit, break in order for this rally to be con slivincing to you >> in the s&p? >> yes. >> on the upside, i don't see why 300 -- 3,000 i should say in the s&p. we're a stone's throw away i really think 3,200 is the 12 to 24-month target emerging markets look good, i think we will go up through 3,000. >> thank you todd gordon, trading analysis. todd mentioned hd. guy. >> as you know, we have liked home depot since the frank blake days not colonel blake, tim >> unlike sherman potter i was a potter guy. >> i will stay with him. however, cisco, he is correct. cisco has been making the base at the levels for the last couple of months like adobe has done recently building a base, that's what seems to be happening here i think cisco can break out. i would like to go off the board
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for 500 if i may. >> for 500. >> and mention a stock that will play catch-up. we talked about it a few weeks ago. we said freeport, made a huge bottom level, that ten level, look at it now if the fed continues to torch the currency which hasn't happened yet, but it will, xcf is going higher. we have not talked about iran and the drone strike today in relationship to oil and a possible position. tim. >> i think my view on oil prices and the impact of supply disruption is that this is a sugar high i really want this to be about demand opec, if anything, has downgraded demand. i don't think oil prices will get away on the upside unless you have meaningful deterioration in the dollar which i don't think we will. the dollar, if anything, it is the biggest part of what we have been talking about so many trades revolve around the dollar, but the dollar laughingly has to be range bound. i would rather own chevron than any other integrated name because of the efficient way they run the balance sheet. >> if you look at the oih of the
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oil service, looking for data, look at this thing it looks like it put in a massive double bottom. if you have this sort of disruption going forward, i suspect you see oih a little higher. >> still ahead, slack surging at public debut today, first big direct listing since spotify last year. is it shaping up to be the next hot stock? plus the consumer freedom group launching a massive campaign warning about the chemicals in plant-bad odrocts kesefo pduli beyond meat. the director of the group will be here to make the case stay tuned
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. >> welcome back to "fast money". slack surging after making its public debut today, up 50% as investors clamored for a piece of the messaging platform, slack taking the same spot as spotify which eliminates the need for underwriters what did you think, dan? >> fine debut. it is a company that gave guidance for fiscal 2020 they will maybe grow 15% year over year. this is a company that i think the valley is convinced it is going to be, you know, changing the way work is done all over the globe. the jury is still out there. just remember, they are losing money because they're competing with the likes of microsoft, google, facebook, sisco. let's see how it trades. it did not go through the same roadshow process a lot of companies do that get vetted let's see how it trades in the near term. >> can i ask a question? sorry. >> sure. >> this is one of the deals everybody owned who is out
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there. it is a deal as we know, they basically didn't have to underwrite because they were essentially bringing their own stock. there's a lot of supports. one of the deals i think people in the valley, the smartest people in this space have owned this company for a long time do you get the sense that they're the only ones that -- they pushed this out there and now we're the last buyer in? >> listen, social capital, they were early investors here. a lot of guys wanted to buy this microsoft wanted to buy this company when it was a smaller valuation. i suspect they are bought at some point it is a platform and an interesting platform that being said, two years ago aol finally shut down their instant message that we used for free for a long time they need to convert users to pay for this. >> did they shut it down >> you okay, guy >> you still have yours? >> speaking of public debuts, beyond meat has been one of the hottest ipos this year, but one consumer meat is warning some of the products found would stop it
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cold they with warning the popular plant-based products could have traces of toxic chemicals, some of which linked to cancer. joining us is research director at the center for consumer freedom, briann. thank you for being with us. >> thank you for having me on. >> what did you find >> we looked at the ingredient list of 80 separate plant-based products we find they're highly processed, some contain as many as 50 individual ingredients several of them are artificial, and one of our main concerns with these products is that people understand that processed food is perhaps not so good for you. but when you start calling it plant-based, people think they're swapping out their beef burger for a vegetable and it is not the case. >> which product specifically are you pointing to? because you sort of made it clear it is not specifically beyond meat, there are worse offenders that are out there as options for consumers, and yet the ad makes it really look like
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it is beyond meat. >> so beyond meat certainly has some items of concern. i would say that pea proceed tate isolate, the bulk of their burger, it is not just peas ground into the product. they go through a very heavy manufacturing process. while we can't know the exact process because it is proprietary, there are other companies, usually ones that use soybeans, that through this process -- it is called extrusion, in order to separate the protein from the fat they will run it through a solvent. now, hexine is recognized by the federal government as a neural toxin. it is thought to have impacts on reproductive health and there have been studies recently in the last several years consumer groups go to grocery stores, pick the items off the shelves, text the residual hexine in them and find levels are higher than those aloud in the european union. >> you guys point out morning
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star gardena, names familiar to our viewers, are worst out there with chemicals existing in the products that aren't good for you. i wopdnder who conducted the sty and who it is funded by. i'm trying to figure out if you guys have an ax to grind with the industry. >> yes of course. can center for consumer freedom takes on issues where we feel consumers are being misled that's what drove us to this all of the research -- i did most of it i had some help. we typically just stuck to the nutrition labels, just the things that are easily accessible by consumers if they want to be and corroborate what we're telling them but the bulk of our research pointed to the idea these products are processed and they're -- they're being market as though they weren't >> so you started this without any funding and the presumption is that somewhere along the line you did get funding. are you getting funding from the meat lobby, for instance
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from publicly traded meat companies? who is backing you now >> so i can't say that we don't publicly disclose our donors i don't know exactly who is funding us i'm not in the accounting department i handle more of the research aspect of it regardless of the funders, the information that we put out, we put it out before we got any funding. all of the information still stands independent of anyone who is interested in it. >> but someone is paying for those ads that are being plastered all over the air, even on cnbc? >> the ads, everything we put out up to this point has actually been just us. >> okay. breanne, thanks for sharing the results. we appreciate it >> of course. >> all right by the way, we reached out to beyond meat they had no comment. they're in a quiet period aheard of earnings so no comment from beyond meat. >> no, i am so happy she is bringing this to light she is right, and we brought this up when the stock was a $50 stock. so it hasn't mattered in terms of shareholder interest. >> yes. >> with that said, i don't think -- i don't think people are eating this thinking it is
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some healthy substitute. i think they're eating it because it is just flatout a meat substitute. there is a distinction i think it is an important one though. >> why isn't every food company in the world able to create a meat substitute? i don't understand this. i don't understand a multiple on something that -- beyond meat, yes, they have a trademark, intellectual property and a brad they don't have a secret sauce, it is not the secret sauce on the big mac. it is an alternative to a burger. >> it is an r & d factory. i'm not supporting them, playing devil's advocate that's what you are investing with the cap now. >> to guy's point, people that are buying this and consuming the products are vegetarians and people that don't eat meat in the first place, all of a sudden your total address to the market goes way down, right >> sure, absolutely. >> than if you think it is a healthy alternative to meat. >> i think it is a problem i ordered an impossible burger at a restaurant and i did it
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because i thought it was healthy. i think it is an issue you have the lockup period for the initial ipo expiring in october. you have valuations and shareholders who initially held the stock who can flood the market with shares i don't like it at these levels at all coming up, apple warning a new round of tariffs on china would be disastrous for business we tell you how bad it could get. shares of canopy lighting up this year as a best performing stock. we are waiting for enifrarngs om the company any moment we will bring you the details. more "fast money" right after this in finance we know the futurest impossible to predict unless you create it. >> we designed our international financial center by asking global businesses what they want and finding the perfect conditions for their success direct access to the world's
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welcome back to "fast money" apple speaking out strongly against the next round of proposed tariffs on goods imported from china in a letter released today, saying it would result in a reduction of apple's u.s. economic contribution and weigh on the company's global competitiveness and urging u.s. trade representative robert lighthizer not to proceed. now, apple, of course, not the only company, u.s. company in the crosshairs of potential china tariffs. cat pillar ceo sat down with jim cramer to explain how the company is navigating the environment. >> we've navigated trade tensions in our 94-year history. it is not new for us. >> right. >> again, we are operating the company in a different way we introduced again the new enterprise strategy. >> right. >> and we set targets out for ourselves in our 2017 investor
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day about improving operating margins. i'm pleased to say that the caterpillar team achieved or exceeded the margins last year. >> so are these trade-sensitive companies really prepared if the trade war drags on or more pain to come? >> i don't think they're prepared at all, especially apple. for apple to send that letter knowing full well they will incur the wrath of the president at some point it says to me they're not prepared caterpillar, by the i what, made an all-time high a year and a half, two years ago and it is a stock with an s&p 500 that has been floundering i don't think a trade deal is getting done i said it for a long time. i stand by it. i think with each passing day we get further away i think the chinese are stringing us out i could be proven wrong but i think that's where we stand right now. >> apple is obviously in the middle of the eye of the storm on so many different levels. obviously tim cook has gone back and forth between china and the white house. you know, they obviously have issues about disruption as far as their supply chain, they have issues on demand you know, they have pricing
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power, if they actually have to raise prices so to me, you know, apple had a really nice run here up to $200. i'm not sure i would buy it higher until this is resolved. >> i like it here. i like it because i think, first of all, we decoupled at least the one brain cell trade on it being a trade war. i realize china is a big deal. the big he ever deal is the app store. if that's no longer the place you have to go it is something to worry about the service is multiple. whatever portion of the business you want is something to consider here. the stock is not expensive. >> you can catch kramer's full interview with the caterpillar ceo right after fast semi conductors may be surging but they've been subject to trade tension as it heats up dan, what are you watching >> this is micron. they haven't confirmed the date yet, but they generally report the last week of june. so we're expecting it there. total options volume was 1.5 average daily volume today there was an interesting day with the stock traded about $34
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shortly afternoon. there was a buyer of 10,000 of the july '33/25 put spreads paying $1.40 for those those break even at 3160 the max gain down at $25 again, it is ot to july expiration why this caught my eye is that obviously we had that big downgrade in guidance for broadcom last week they specifically cited headwinds from demand in china micron is a stock that is literally, what, up a few percent in the last couple of weeks off of the lows that it really -- six-month lows here. look at the one-year chart that's the year-to-date. it is banging along the bottom there and down 25% from the highs in the spring. one reason why this trader -- maybe it is protection or maybe it is targeting a breakdown lower. look at the five-year chart of the thing. $32 to $33 seems a big long-term technical level here obviously this micron if they report next week, the options market is implying an 8% move in either direction, that's hefty this will be a very, very
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closely watched report. >> in terms of earnings estimates for the s&p 500, jeff, do you have the sense that it includes a potential tariff further impact or no >> i don't think so at this stage. i think it includes some sort of deal getting done. i mean look at where earnings estimates have been for the entire year, somewhere between 168 and 170, they haven't moved. i think you are pricing in a positive outcome on trade. i don't think the conversation at the g20 is going to lead to a break through. i think it reduces the probability of further escalation i think that's what the market react to thus far, but i don't think earnings react yet. >> well, i look at 2020 and i think consensus is around $185, $186 that really has not come in yet. i think that would be the place, if we're really looking at a forward multiple anyway that people should be concerned but it gets back to do we really care about the multiple right now of the s&p in this environment. i don't think that's what you should be looking at. >> for more options action check out the full show tomorrow 5:30
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p.m. eastern time. wall street braces for the earnings report we will tell you w ioot could signal n signal for the red hot cannabis space. more "fast money" right after more "fast money" right after this i've even built my own historic trading model. and you're still not sure if you want to make the trade? exactly. sounds like a case of analysis paralysis. is there a cure? td ameritrade's tr they can help gut check your strategies and answer all your toughest questions. sounds perfect. see, your stress level was here and i got you down to here, i've done my job. call for a strategy gut check with td ameritrade. ♪ who used expedia to book the vacation rental which led to the discovery that sometimes a little down time can lift you right up. expedia. everything you need to go.
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welcome back to "fast money" canopy growth. somebody could turn their phone down. >> it is dan >> thank you, dan. one of the hottest stocks up more than 60%, just yesterday got approval from shareholders to acquire cannabis company acreage holdings when the u.s. legalizes marijuana. we expect earnings any more. let's go to aditi roy in san francisco on what to expect. >> a lot of anticipation investors will be looking at n canopy's top line growth the canadian market has dealt with shortages colins say canopy is market leader in the country with 20% market share, but the canadian legal market expected to reach under a billion dollars this year is relatively small for instance the legal market in california is expected to reach
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just under $3 billion this year. investors will be looking for numbers on canopy's revenues in countries outside canada by the end of the year canada's market will be also expanding to things likedibles and beverages so looking for any guidance on how canopy plans to meet that demand and also address some of the regulations which were just released on things like packaging and dosing of those items. investors also will be looking to see if canopy will leverage its partnership with constellation brands for products in this category. canopy's co-ceo bruce lent en expressed support in the past for an infused sports drisk. we will be looking for color on the u.s. strategy. you talked about this, how late yesterday the shareholder as approved the deal with acreage under the deal canopy has the right to purchase acreage if the u.s. legalizes cannabis. investors will be looking for comments on canopy hemp operations in new york and several other states back to you, melissa. >> thank you, aditi roy in san francisco. just a warning i think the last quarter canopy
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didn't report results until like 7:00 p.m., pretty late we are expecting them. >> we are. and last quarter they lost about $75 million. that's not what you are looking for. in terms i'm not looking how they're going to ramp up supply in canada because frankly it is not the story here, even though that's the detail we will get. we will hear about their 5 million square foot acres and how it is going to grow. the story in the u.s., first of all, it is exciting they're building essentially a cbd empire the partnership with acreage is part of, i think, playing down the footprint. congratulations to the guys. they sat on the desk the night they got the merger done if you look at the two companies, acreage looks pretty darn cheap here. you know, it is about 45 shy to where it should be trading at the deal price on the ratios that they announced. i think that's something interesting. bottom line here is this is the largest company in the world with the big brother that everyone would love to have. i'm not saying every other lp or multi-state operator in the united states would do a deal
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tomorrow with these guys, but production/distribution is what is out in this industry right now. >> up next, we have the final >> up next, we have the final trades hey, mercedes, end audio. change lighting to soft blue. the completely reimagined 2020 gle. with intelligeontrol and available third row. your adventure awaits. visit your local mercedes-benz dealer for exceptional lease and financing offers. mercedes-benz. the best or nothing. you mighyour for your heart... or your digestion... so why wouldn't you take something for the most important part of you... your brain. with an ingredient originally discovered in jellyfish, prevagen has been shown in clinical trials to improve short-term memory.
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check out shares of beyond meat, down after hours this after our interview with
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the center for consumer freedom which warns of dangerous chemicals in some products including beyond meat. beyond meat, we should say, had no comment when we reached out for more on this check out, right now down by more than 3.5%. we should point out -- we have got some criticism we pushed back on where they got their funding. they say they got no funding from industry groups and lobbying groups. the executive director of freedom research group is also the head of a pr firm, so there's some questions about the motivations of this group. they say there's been no funding though from the big meat industry final trade time tim. >> yeah, in terms of big names in the world out there, look, google to me is a company that right now also can be defensive in a market where if you are looking for growth they're -- that's not the issue they're giving you 21% they're giving you good numbers, 20 times multiple. >> jeff. >> we are buyers of emerging markets. the chart looks petter, u.s. dollarst rolling over. we like emerging markets. >> dan. >> flash gordon was on fire
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tonight. i like that sisco plan after the breakout. >> it was a fun show, a good time exxonmobil, first time in a while it has not made a lower low. i think exxonmobil is going higher. >> that does it for us see you back team tomorrow for more "fast money". my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now [ applause ] >> hey, i'm cramer welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica a lot of people want to make friends. i do have some special pals with me today i do just want to help you make some money my job is not just to entertain, but to educate, teach you, put it in context so you can


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