tv Options Action CNBC June 21, 2019 5:30pm-6:01pm EDT
you hear me? >> hey there live from the nasdaq market side on this expiration friday. the guys are getting ready behind me. in the meantime, here is what is coming up on the show. >> special delivery. >> hey >> fedex is getting ready to deliver earnings next week, but the chart master says there's trouble lurking in the transports he will tell us why he's pressing sell. plus -- >> we have a lift-off. >> yeah, that's what stocks did this week. if you think the record rally is going to rage on, dan nathan will tell you how you can profit from the party and later -- >> big bank, small bank, i like
to make money. >> us too. mike khouw will explain how he is betting on a breakout in one big bank for less than a buck. it is time to risk less and make more the action begins now. ♪ we start with the transport. sitting in correction territory and underperforming the broader markets, trade tensions and fears of a global slowdown weighing on the group. key players like american airline goes, jb hunt and ups off double digits on two-week highs. as fedex gears up to report earnings neck week, our chart master says there's more trouble brewing. he is over to break it down. carter. >> it is all things cyclical down today, industrials, materials, financials, and transports semis. anyway, let's look at the transports and then, of course, zero in on fedex this is 2007 this is the '09 low, and this is where we are now you have the past decade let's put in some lines and put it in perspective. what we know is we have major
sell-offs. obviously in the '09 plunge you get a 61% drop you have a 30%, a 31%, and we endured a 26% drop this go around, and we haven't made a new high that's going to be the issue, the relative perform abs another way to look at it, just how simple it is in terms of trend work, right? it has come down to trend. this one didn't quite get there, and i think ultimately we have the prospects that we will you can also, of course, see that there is a very well-defined head and shoulders formation in the transports. now, relative performance. this is really the issue here is the past ten years, and what we know is effectively relative performance peaked almost five years ago. so, yes, it has gone up, but it's not delivering alpha. never a particularly good thing. if i do this on a short-term basis, this is just over the past year, take a look again, it is making two-year
relative lows to the s&p so up, but two-year lows what we really have ultimately is a head-and-shoulders bottom that failed. it is not good okay fedex. you have a perfect bottom. literally that's the christmas throw. think what equities have done. equities have surged and so did fedex, but, of course, fedex is back at its christmas low. now, it has bounced a little bit, and i think that's osh abvs and elemental, but the question is, is it going to carry further. i think no i will make a bet that this is the beginning of more trouble. >> okay. thanks, carter mike, what is the trade? >> i think when we look at fedex, i mean obviously one of the questions we have to ask ourselves fundamentally because we're looking at a company trading at about ten times earnings, what is the problem here why does the market see so much trouble ahead for fedex? you know, we have really two stories here one is international,
integration of tnt and how they're doing internally the other, of course, is the 800-pound gorilla in the room, amazon this is not simply an issue, fedex will point out we were talking about it before, it doesn't represent a big part of their business the question is whether or not they will have a competitor in the form of amazon, and that obviously is very troubling. combine that with the other headwinds they're already facing, and that is the reason it is trading as cheaply i think right now as it is the thing is the options themselves though are not that cheap. so looking at earnings next week, the market is implying about a 5.4% move or so for fedex, above its 3.8% average. so we're going to use a stricture going into earnings we have talked about probably infrequently, but i think it can be a very good trade in some situations where you think that a run -- and we had a little run up here, it might come to an end. specifically i was looking at the july 170, 175 call spread and i want to said that spread
when i looked earlier today, you could collect about $5 with the calls. so net, net you are collected about $1.90 of the $5 widespread, nearly 40% of the distance between the strikes the thing is if the stock sits here, you will start collecting some decay it can rise marginally, you can still see some profits obviously if it declines you get to keep all of that money. one other point i would quickly make is if they surprise to the upside -- let's say they got maybe a 5% pop, call 9 $8.5 from here taking it to about 172.5. that's the break even. even if it goes more than that, hits that 175 strike, it isn't going immediately to the full value of the $5. so it is not as if you are simply going to collect nearly 2 and risk 3 it is probably more like an even money bet but the probability favors you. >> i think the main point is that mike thinks the options are expensive in the identifiable event, and the flip side is that carter's charts point to lower
lows if you don't think the quarter they mentioned is not going well and guide down enough, even at 10% earnings this stock has a 10% down side. mike's trade gives you a high probability of some success. it does not help you capture what would be maybe a 10% sort of move. this is an options trade for what i think is a pretty interesting technical setup into a fundamental event that makes sense because implied volatility of the price of options is high. >> yes, this is not an effort to go out and try to hit a home run in case they really disappoint this is where we think that there could be at least some immediate ceiling and some weakness, and you are just trying to hit a single here. >> you know, it is funny, the 10 pe that's always the he is duck shonl. i think cater pillar is down 30%, down to a high pe of 10 all the way down. >> the value trap? >> of course when things go bad, it doesn't mean a thing. >> then it gets the downgrade. >> as it just did. >> shipping to staples has been a month-to-month sector
but as a group helps push the market to all-time highs, jim cramer isn't sure if surging staple sectors is good news. take a listen. >> now, a lot of the stocks going up in this particular leg of the market are the ones that go up when we're about to go into recession the stocks leading the rally are proctor & gamble and they do not go up when the economy is on fire >> what do you think of p & g? >> listen, it was a great discussion by jim in favor this morning. i was watching that and i immediately started looking at proctor & gamble you know, it is a stock that we know that investors have kind of just -- i don't know, just run into this thing. you know, it is up 10% over the last month alone, but it is up 21% on the year. it is up 58% from its 2018 52-week lows here here is a stock trading at record-high multiples, i mean decades long it is trading about 26 times,
trailing about 23 times forward. you are getting that forward, you know, okay, you want that 2.65% dividend yield, but you are not getting a heck of a lot of growth. this is a company that's going to grow earnings, mid single digits, grow sales low single digits i think the thing that's interesting -- let's go to the one-year chart quickly this thing is on a runaway breakout it is a multi year chart it was range bound for a while, but since january it has busted out and gone straight up here. i look at the combination of what jim just said we have a weakening economy here, and if we don't have any real resolution to the trade situation the back half of the year won't be great. in that scenario you will have cyclical names continue to go lower, but i don't believe you have stocks like consumer staples up like this anticipating whatever they're anticipating, continue to go higher from here i think a name like proctor up so much in such a short period of time it is kind of dammed if you do, dammed if you don't. they will report earnings at the end of july. they have not set the date yet
i think it is an interesting situation. implied volatility, unlike mike's trade in fedex, is really low. it is about 13.5% right here, looking out one month or so. that's making directional long-premium trades. kind of attractive to me in a market i think has the potential to be volatile i want to look out to august expiration and buy a put spread and try to capture a move towards the breakout level in the high 90s so today when the stock was trading at about 112.25, you could buy the august 1, '97 half put spread, breaks down to 108 you could make up to $10.50, down to 97.5 you have match risk is that $2 to me i like the risk reward i have two months to earn this out. i have an event in the name particularly, but i think i have the potential to grab broad market volatility here i like the risk/reward risking
two to get 10.5 if the stock is down in the next two-and-a-half months. >> do you like the trade >> i do like the trade it is less than 2% of the current stock price and the valuation, you said that we are basically at 20-year highs in terms of valuation. >> yes. >> and it is off the charts for the last ten i mean if you take a look at this, it is just incredible. this is not a growth story, and yet it is priced as if it is that doesn't really make any sense to me. you know, one can only speculate that this is essentially a combination of two elements related to low rates you know, one of them is a chase for yield. the other arguably could be that, you know, they have a lot of maturities that will be rolling off on their fixed income side. their debt side, maybe people think, oh, low rates, they get to refinance a big portion of their balance sheet at low rates. guess what, people low rates is not a good story even in terms of keeping up in growth. >> the thing is this phenomenon is not specific to consumer staples, right. >> right. >> in every sector rails have
done the best because they're defensive, right simon properties is the biggest one of all it is terrible what is most defensive american towers, surging you see it even in certain utilities. but here is the thing. i don't see any difference between this chart -- which i agree short it, hershey, you could have picked any of those, church and dwight, but proctor & gamble is the biggest. is that why you picked it? >> i think it is the biggest, the largest component in the xlp that is the staples ltf. if there are stock specific issues in this when they report next month, it will be down to 100 like that. >> some of the crowds are hedging or exiting some of the positions you talked about, the people that own these things have been pairing back positions and hedging then. >> check out our website optionsaction.cnbc.com here is what is coming up next maybe you should try a different bank a big bank. >> great idea.
unluc lucky for you, mike khouw has a big bank stock he is betting on for a big breakout plus, calling all action fans. reach into your pocket, grab your phone and tweet us your question at options action if it is nice, we will answer it on air when "options action" return "options action" is sponsored by - ♪♪ ♪♪
i'm not really a, i thought wall street guy.ns. what's the hesitation? eh, it just feels too complicated, you know? well sure, at first, but jj can help you with that. jj, will you break it down for this gentleman? hey, ian. you know, at td ameritrade, we can walk you through your options trades step by step until you're comfortable. i could be up for that. that's taking options trading from wall st. to main st. hey guys, wanna play some pool? eh, i'm not really a pool guy. what's the hesitation? it's just complicated. step-by-step options trading support from td ameritrade welcome back to "options action". the biggest banks passing their first round of stress tests moments ago. here is bank of america grinding higher through june along with the rest of financials even though a rate cut looks inevitable in july, mike khouw says now is the time to make a bet on banks here he is with the call to action mike. >> i'm not sure if now is the
time to make a bet on banks or if we found a decent one to make one if you are so inclined looking at why you would trade a call spread in bank of america, we were talking about it in the earlier segment. valuation is very low, but a low valuation can be a two-edged sword because it can point to trouble ahead. so if you are inclined to make a bullish bet you want to try to find a way to do it while reducing the amount of risk you take we have an opportunity right now because options are cheap. going into earnings it moves about 4% it is inclined to move about 2.5% that's basically a tell options prices are lower than they normally would be. fed cuts, i mean obviously it is one of the big headwinds people are talking about, low rates, low rate environment bad for banks. i think there's other issues we could potentially be concerned about, but obviously if you have very low valuation, some of the bad news is priced in and options are exceptionally cheap as we were just talking about. now you have an opportunity to try to use those options and get
long them to make a bet here, in this case to the bullish side where you're not risking a great deal specifically, i was just looking out to august. you could buy the 29 calls for $0.80. you could sell the 32 calls for $0.20 against it net-net you are spending $0.60 on a $3 widespread normally we look to buy debit spreads a quarter of a distance between the strikes. here we get to do less than that another way to think about it, of course, is in this case only about a couple percent of the current stock price. stock doesn't need to move that much for you to make some profits here of course, if this tell in the valuation and all of the bad news in the banks proves to be true, you are actually only risking a relatively small amount of the stock price to make this bet. i kind of feel it is kind of the asymmetric trade you are looking for in situations like this, where there obviously is some down side risk, but if you get a little bit of good news here maybe you get a pop to the
upside in this case, you know, it is up to $32 it was trading about 28.60 when i was looking at it, a solid 10% move you have participation in while only risking a relatively small amount. >> thanks for that, mike what do you think, dan >> i don't like it it is fine, if mike is looking -- >> do you know like what he is doing or the structure of the trade? >> it closed flat on the week. you know, it was a great week for the s&p 500. it was record highs. xlf closed flat on the week. unless you know something about bank of america's q2 earnings and guidance they're going to give, you don't know why you want to be in the space whatsoever to me the banks are selling in every rally until something materially happens and i don't know what it is. i don't dislike the trade. if you are bullish, you're in the money, have a ball. >> you said it there is an suppression, they don't act well these are burdened securities right now. their operating environment is tough at the markets level and,
yes, their credit quality is good and some people say the balance sheet is better than they've ever been. that's always the case before it goes pear shaped. >> what is the catalyst, mike? >> that is earnings, one we identified here. if we have a situation on the rate side where people suddenly change their tune, that's a possibility. but here is the thing, right so is everyone going to run out and sell all of their stocks maybe up own proctor & gamble, we heard very good reasons not to own that. some of the stocks that have been performing the best recently i would argue are the riskiest places to keep your money right now. some of them which seem to be safe like proctor & gamble, some it is hard to believe they would be like beyond meats if you are looking for a place that you might be inclined to risk a little that they could somehow catch fire as everything else seems to have, financials are the weaks space and that's why you would use options to do it because in this case you are risking 2% of the current stock pace. >> even in the financials, back to the concept of people being defensive as jim was talking
about, look at defenstocks, the on fire. >> they're good? >> they're fragile we have strong stocks too extended. >> what you said before is everything is great before it goes pay shaped. if you look add goldman sachs and morgan stanley, they should be having a field day with the ipo stuff. i get it, the net interest margin, the yield curve and all of that stuff is challenging the stocks are 25% off their 2018 post-crisis highs if you are telling me it is not some sign -- it is like warning bells screaming in silence what is going on here even with the s&p 500 all time highs. >> check out homebuilders a fresh 52-week high great news for one of our traders. plus it is friday, so you know what it means, tweet us your burning questions at options action t you are lucky we will answer onhe line. we are live on times square at
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td ameritrade. ♪ welcome back to "options action". it is time to take a look back at a couple of our open trades last week dan said semis were about to short out >> there's your breakout, but it was never confirmed, meaning you weren't actually outperforming as a tech or tmt portfolio manager because picks here were still doing worse than other things one could have chosen within one's benchmark or index. >> i would look out to august expiration when the etf was trading at 103 this afternoon you could buy the august 1, '90 put spread paying $2.50 for that >> the semiconductor etf up about 9% in june so far. dan, how do you manage this trade? >> it is up 4%, week over week he obviously outperformed the s&p 500. we said if there's anything on the trade front on a positive measure, it is going to rocket back it did that. we know micron is going to
report next week, two weeks after broadcom's negative guidance so let's see what they have and let's see what they have into the g20, because if micron and the g20 stuff is disappointing, the stock likely will be back in the low 100s. >> and the real thing is everything was up in june and semis adjusted for beta and risk, underperformed the market. not impressive stay short. >> mike, what do you think >> yeah, no, i agree we're taking a look as we were earlier at relative performance. i mean we obviously saw the market performing very well yesterday, not quite as well today but also very well, and some of tehese things are not performing well, acting terribly. >> in march mike and carter said the homebuilders would rally. >> if you look at the stocks in s&p, select homebuilders index, etf, you will see the valuation of the whole group is trading about 12 times forward earnings, a cheap multiple
the homebuilders themselves, which are a sub set, are actually much cheaper. you could look out at the june '38 calls, essentially at the money, about a buck and a half. >> the xbf nearly 8% since then, hitting an eight week high so it is in the green. what do you do >> this is very interesting because, yes, it hit a high, but when did it hit the high tuesday, and i think it hasn't performed well since this was a nice double for us to have made, maybe hopefully some of you who put the trade on managed to sell those when it hit the highs on tuesday but i wouldn't actually continue to take a bullish position in xhp. >> that's right. and they decouple with ten years, when they sunk below two and they should get a ftli they stalled. the trade seems up. >> okay. up next, your tweets and the final call "options action" is sponsored by -- looked at chart patterns. i've even built my own historic trading model.
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welcome back to "options action". time to take your tweets our first viewer asks, is it the right time to buy spy puts considering that we made an all-time high. what do you say, mike? >> would there be a better time than right after you are reaching an all-time high after the market is looking a little bit extended, seeing the kind of relative strength we are, identifying the overpriced segments we have and notices options premiums are low, so the answer is yes. >> next asks, would you buy july calls on microsoft when it's at a 52-week high with earnings in july dan. >> yes, i think it could make a lot of sense to do stock replacement to find the risk july with stock at 137 at 4 bucks, so less than 3 ters%, th the large -- >> time for the final call carter. >> fedex we think has risks. don't be there >> mike? >> sell calls, spread fedex and
maybe buy spy puts. >> proctor, crowded trade. puts are cheap heading into earnings >> that does it for us see you back here next friday at 5:30 in the meantime "mad money" starts right now make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job isn't just to entertain but to teach s call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet me @jimcramer. how the heck can the federal reserve cut interest rates or even contemplate it when the market still is such elevated
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