tv Fast Money CNBC October 1, 2019 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
>> big intraday swings opened hire on the dow. the low of the session around 2:00 p.m down 347 the final hour or two we tried to get higher but ended chose to the lows down 343 points out of time that does it for "closing bell." >> "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square this is "fast money. i'm mels aye pleep pete narjen tim seymour. karen finerman and dan nathan. a brokerage babying down a as schwab ups the ante in the price wars who comes out on top to race to consent decree. we debate. watching stitch fix bound bouncing after reporting results. the conference call getting under way. we'll bring you highlights and later one top technician says in chart is looking so bad it's good. where he is finding big opportunity right now. but we begin with the manufacturing meltdown stocks kicking off the quarter
deep in the read as a key read on the health of the economy slips to the lowest level since the great recession. that got us thinking, is history about to repeat in firing up the time machine for back to a year when this played out on air >> you hear the music-on see the raging bull. you know what that means the dwou hitting a record high for the first time since january 26th joining the s&p 500 and nasdaq both at all-time highs as well. >> so that was the setup heading into q 4 of last year. fast forward a few days and this happened "fast money" starts right now we breaking news stocks getting shattered today. the dow having the worst day since february tanking more than 800 points, the selling accelerates into the close. and we close the dead lows of the day. snpd fiefd now the lose worst losing strategic in two years. the question i pose to you all tonight. >> dramatic.
>> are we setting up for repeat of last year >> tim >> well, think about year over year where we are in terms of expectations on we ratcheted down dramaically. high double digits expectations last year. if anything were concerned about the fed's next move to tighten for the cut. if anything we are evaluating one possibly two and if anything the markets would be ace diplomated by nothing. that's not last year third of all, last year can't happen because of last year. i mean my sense. >> because it happened last year can't happen this year. >> look at position attention based upon last year so many people were destroyed in the two-month period where volatility went from no where to being relevant i think you have a dynamic when we talk about the equity under positioning. i think therefore look -- the fundamentals are getting worse and worse. the market is aware of the fundamentals and if anything i think at this point the market is off sides on a move to the upside.
>> we put together then and new now in terms of differences you nailed a couple. another key one is rates hitting a high last year about 3 plus%. this year at 1.64 or wherever right now. but pete brings up a good point in terms of positioning much more defensor versus last year. >> rotation to defensive names absolutely some of the names are stretched but maybe for right reasons because people look for areas where they feel comfortable, getting a yield and obviously that's put them in a lot of the other areas. i think the other thing is when we look at this -- this is still about the trade war. and we already know in the action next week or so we're getting closer to finding out where are we, how far apart we are. >> you believe that. >> maybe. >> i think -- i think we'll have a sense of how far apart are we? or have we come a little bit closer and i think the aggressiveness of the chinese and the fact they are willing to come here, get into the trade meetings, that says something and i think -- and that's why when it wasn't trump but
actually the chinese said we are doing this that got me missouri more encouraged. >> i'm -- i'm nervous. i'm way more nervous now bus all right, the fed has cut they were fightening then, cutting now. that's one thing we don't have that much fire power left to go. that's something the trade war had just gotten started. i think it was july of 2018 when it got started and i really believed at that time it was are it would be a relatively finite amount of time before it would be resolved. and it would be really not that big of a deal. here we are 13 months later, 14 months later i think they are further apart which a good deal than they were then that's a negative to me. you have economies around the world which tim touched on which are weaker, not as much fire power any more to me that -- and a higher market, right. all of those things together make me more nervous however i'm -- always long but i have a lot of protection i feel like the vicks was up a
lot today. but i think it should be higher than it was a week or two ago. >> we have tariffs going to come into effect unless there is more progress made in the talks come december and these tariffs will hit the u.s. consumer, a very different scenario from what we had last year when there weren't tariffs in place hitting the consumer. >> you have to go back to august 1st when trump threatened the tariffs that were 300 billion into effect september 1st. in august it caused volatility in the stkt market and we saw the tariffs pushed out to december 15th. i think that's causing a good bit of trep tags it's interesting when you think about the s&p 500 going back to the reened wind we're in the same spot. not a lot of progress except for what tim said i think is important, expectations for earnings are lower you say okay that's with the put a lid on the stock market. then you to go rates and say that's good for the stock market except for the fact if they go down for the wrong reasons and that's what with we saw today
with the manufacturing data. if you put the pieces in and say are we complacent back here within a couple% of the all-time highs as we were last september? there is a lot of other ingredients in place though from a geopolitical standpoint that messier than last carrier. because every month or every quarter that the trade war goes longer, the damage done to the global economy i think is takes that much more to be undone. and we know that economies don't turn on a dime markets can on tweets and headlines. economies don't. and it may take time to kind of work out of the malaise we've been in a while. >> i think that's fair i think tony is pushing back on the data saying maybe a positive spot i look forward to that but looking at vietnam printing -- one of the high growth economies vietnam prints at a 50.5 pmi you had the employment kboenant of the usism giving as you real look not labor markets the lowest point since 2016 the pmi, germany at the lows of
2009 that's right back to june of 2009 i should say when we were talking about green schutts. as dan points out, the trade war is a double edged dynamic for traders. some people say solve the trade war and back to work and and it's okay ebitly the reality is it doesn't work like that. i agree. the pain you see when you get the prints -- this is why i think can you say this time could be a little bit different if you look at weaker ism in the history, bus you don't have the prokt of a trade war that really is hanging over the whole thing. >> right i go back to the original question we started off with the show, and that is could we see a repeat of q 4 of last year. >> no doubt about it look, i think things have gotten messier. i think the 20% peak to trough decline came from an s&p up 9% in september of 2018 and here we are up 17% in the s&p fiefd. and there seemed to be no short annual of headwinds including the dollar we haven't talked
about making two-year highs. i can't see anybody wanting to sell a stock i can't find anybody wanting to sell a stock despite the defensive positioning it seems to be a level of complacency similar to a year ago. >> karen i don't know i feel like we are higher than where we were. we have some things i don't see repeating that helped us i don't know, tony will take the other side of this with the volatility index we haven't seen one thing important. credit markets haven't fallen apart as well. >> which they did october last year. >> they did last year. to me i'm sure it's some of the credit stuff i think that is -- that could be the. >> you you're waiting for it to turn. >> i'm waiting for it to turn. >> she is hedging herself that makes sfleens i'm long i lose money if we have another return of last year but the credit markets turned -- the ipo markets have turned very wiftly very dramatically. >> go ahead. >> i think that's a really important point. that's one of the things we look at year offer year
what we see is the ipo market caving the story stocks caving. people were willing to buy and ask questions later. look at balance sheets, earnings later. profitability suddenly very important. very different environment i think year over year in terms of tolerance for risk fwree with that, pete. >> i think a lot of the folks went in there everything you throw money at on ipo is making money. now they they are figuring it out. dwroentd if that's a great read. but i what i see to dan's point is when we had that big drop last carrier wasn't everybody elated and excited and everything was great and fine and whatever map and this is different because it's notts just the fang names leading it's other parts of the market participating. it's more defensive. from that perspective i don't think people are just looking saying. >> defensive as in better. >> better in terms of what are we look being forward to they know what happened last year because of that i think that does pull back and people look at it. >> one major wall street bull is telling clients not to work
worry about the market mums numbers. the aforemention bull. >> bearded zblul bearded pull bull you. >> don't hate me because of the bull. >> plenty of reasons to worry about the market plenty of reasons for the muscle memory to kick into to q 4 of last year. give me the number one reason why we shouldn't think that is the case. >> credit is totally different remember last october, i think i was on the news flash speshlg at cnbc and it came from the fed being overly hawkish remember fed chair powell saying he is raising a number of times next year and you fast forward to december and he was way more machish than you thought he was going to be. even janet yellen recently said on friday that the fed is being too optimistic to u.s. groepgt the 10-year note yield going to from 3.25 to 19.50 everybody loves that driven by the
negative yields in europe. noech no it's bad data we're in the third mini recession. the data is supposed to be as bad as 2016. it's supposed to be as bad as 2012 that's kind of driving what the 10-year note yield a is doing. in both occurrences be the s&p 500 made its 20% low months before the 50er did. the market is acting similar to that the only thing causing- i'm giting out to my god we remember the dooms day clock with the inverted yield curve is when the consumer falls apart and it's hard to say that's not happening it's not. >> are the tariffs that could kick in december 15th is that a concern when you see consumer confidence vipg for instance are these things that could add up in your mind to the consumer losing some of its strength. >> it could create volatility. one of the most important influences i can have on the show and the client base is those news items create volatility, whether you are a
sustainable bear i've written reports where the title is cash is king. i'm a known as a perm a bull for 10 years because credit has been good it comes down to interest rates go against you and companies and households don't have access to money, that's what causes a recession in the united states of america where it's a consumer driven economy the people at this devg need being access to money. the last time i was on i talked to the technicians that was on he sachd $1200 a month in 15 minutes on refie my business manager saved $1,600 on a month in a refie. a buddy of my chicago to greenwich 5 million bucks in the account wanted a $2 million mortgage in greenwich thp. think about that that's money shutting down. we are not that. >> tony explain to us here we have the s&p 500 at same spot as
a yeerg year ago the 10-year treasury at 3% now it's cut in half here. why are stocks at the same spot as they were a year ago if the rates being lower are better for the economy for the consumer for access to capital. >> you've had a multiple contraction -- our argument as you know is 2950 for year next year np i'm focused on 3350 i have a high conviction level we are going there because of the drop remember last year, dan, everything in the summertime, markets making new highs even though the fed is raising rates, earnings are ripping. we had the tax cut tailwind. everything is all good earnings per share up 20%. that was the time to be nervous. not when expectations are we have negative earnings this quarter which i doubt. you have negative earnings, the tariff headwinds which can karen has done a great job of talking about. you have the other economic headwinds that we're all aware
of thoets things are there creating volatility the request he is what do you do with it? and you only sell volatility meaning sell stocks because of volatility when you think you are going into a stentable recession which is only driven by a shutdown in credit. my business manager and the technician ain't getting money that fast if banks are shutting down or shadow banks are shutting down credit that's really the driver here is there is so much money. >> that all makes sense. but when i look at debt to gdp corporate debt to gdp basically where we were at the peak of the financial crisis, or going into that, and we know there is the triple b traunch of essentially one cut above junk. >> snur. >> you don't get the opportunity to see credit turn around. in fact october 1st two days before october 3rd when we saw the sell i don't have credit looked okay and then suddenly it didn't very, very quickly. abif anything what the recession does is it changes the outlook of growth for companies especially with levered balance
sheets and when corporates have bin jd on-free money, that to me is the credit impact. >> three weeks ago the b a. a, moody baa tame shinning at triple b record low in yield record low in yield on a record week of new issuance if corporate credit slats down it taking sometime to spend that money. companies don't get the money in the next 5 minutes most of them pend it. they figure out what the capital spending lan is where the asset -- capital allocation will be a record amount of new issuance and a record low in yield, what that tells su there is not enough credit. you guys know me well enough this doesn't end well. you can't fix debt with exponentially more debt but you have to shut down the availability of the debt which any haven't done it forget about our opinions look at the data the data tells that you there is not enough credit for the pension fund demand to get the returns they need. >> tony, thank you gooz to see
you canaccord ingenuity. at schwab cutting commissions on online trades breaking to the brokers we'll debate next. and later a quarter pounder by jp morgan thinks mcdonald's is in for a rough q 3 much more "fast money" right after this it's been reported that there's a cyberattack on business every 39 seconds. ouch. i don't even want to think about it. comcast business has a solution. we go beyond fast with a cloud-based security system that automatically updates, so you always have the latest protection. phishing. malware. risky sites. it can help block all of that. it's one less thing for us to worry about. comcast business securityedge automatically protects all the devices on your network. call 1-800-501-6000 today.
welcome back to "fast money. check out shares of charles schwab tanking after the company announced it will drop commissions on u.s. stock can be etf and options trades possible pisani at the new york stock exchange with more on this hey, bob. >> hello the race to zero has been going on a long time in e-brokerage space. but the size of the drops in the stocks took traders by surprise. look 9% dr. platz no schwab, 15% drop in e-trade. 25% in ameritrade. the big difference in the reaction is because the reliance on trading revenues dirch differs between them schwab gets only a small portion, about 8% of the total revenue from trading whereas e-trade and td mere trade rely more on those trading revenues, 32% and 36% of the revenues respectively schwab, in fact gets nearly 6 oh%ive revenue haves interest it
generates from the bank as well as asset management which separately generates nearly a third of its revenues. why would schwab cut the commissions to zero? partly a response to interactive brokers cutting commissions last we can but the key to the story is understanding that the crucial issues for the brokers is retain as many customers as you possibly can because from that you generate fees and interest revenues that simple. the good news is these assets tended to be sticky. it takes a lot for someone to get up and leave the broker. but the competition is getting more intense in this space for example, joon-pyo morgan has the you invest low cost platform bank of america has low cost brokerage services robinhood hood and other competitors out there as well. it not judges the e-broker brokers had other problems bow besides trading commissions. look at this clarity, schwab down 10% part partly because it relies on interest the bank generates. but as interest rates have been dropping, take a look, that's
also meant lower revenues for schwab schwab tended to move in line with rates like the 10-year treasury yield you see here rather than the s&p zbliefd thank you, bob bob pisani at the nyse we were talk bag this in the green room in terms of revenue lost potentially for schwab if you bring that 78% commission revenue down to zero. >> right. >> and the market. >> it's not the full 8 they would lose half, three or four. >> three or four% to zero. >> right. >> aband then the market cap lost based on the 10% decline. >> that seems like an outsized response to what's happened. it's interesting strategic move hurts them less than everybody else good for them to be in front of it i haven't really followed schwab closely. i can't believe -- they have 3.7 trillion in client assets. that is a pretty enormous number i mean you can see if it's sticky how valuable that is. this is sort of intriguing to me if rates returned.
that's the other part bob touched. >> right. >> the spread game for them could be really profitable for them and others. but for them it's enormous i actually -- i haven't looked at this. this is inveeging to me. i wouldn't boy on the first day after a move like that let it shake out but it's interesting and seems like a big reaction. >> it's worth noting, these e-brokers as they were called back 20 years ago when theyed pulled up during the.com bubble. they were at the nipping at the heels of the mailer lynchs and others now on a multifront wars pep they still want the balances but now they have robin hood a vc backed company losing money i suspect which started with the whole zero commission sort of thing. now interestingly enough i think schwab to all the points that are made here, they want to cross sell, keep the assets and keep them there and do other things. >> they're on offense. >> no they're not. >> well they are relative to peers group. >> i disagree. >> but relative to the competitor. >> double it up.
>> i completely. >> double it up. >> i would say this. >> geekd up. >> this whole issue is because there are disrupters out there and it's absolutely killing the names that we all know because they were disrupters, right? whether it's interactive, or td or schwab or whomever it might be and now they have robo advisers. they have all kinds of other competition coming at them and that's the big problem because how do they defense this over time? i don't know how they are going to other than trying to gain as much assets as they can. try to get whatever fees they can and obviously interest. >> that's what it is for charles schwab it's asset grab they have they want people to park the money. >>en a there are drupters nar going to take them out that's the problem and these are legacy company was far too many employees, far too many costs and efficiencies are not there. their competitors have very few employees. because they are completely differently built behind the scenes >> they're software companies. >> fair companies. >> look also at the traditional
assets. >> we built this thing. >> you built a platform yourself. >> sure. >> the traditional asset manager franklin resource t roe price they are under pressure. you think etfs trading at zsh dsh etfs tradesing at -- that compresses expense ratios where do they make company. >> the mutual fund kpt as blackstone is coming off the all-time highs they are not mutual fund company. they are tactical and opportunity o opportunist they have had exits despite what you hear about the ipo market. i grow with everything you said pete on disruption i would say relative to the peers they are on offense. basically seeing the writing on the wall and know the the revenue mix is different than some the other peers we talked about because as we said 8%eve if it goes to 4% leaves them in a different position than the other guys. >> the competition level i i understand what you are say -- the big problem they face is they still are -- they are the last ones to do this
interactive did it td it did it and the rest did it. they are reacting to the thing going to 7.99 to 4.99 to zrp that's what they've done appear that's because the disrupters are taking over and people just don't see it. >> last time we saw skongs we'll see. >> you can read more about the pricing wars on the website. live at the nasdaq market site in new york. here is what else is coming up on the show. ♪ >> a technical takedown. one technician says this chart looks so bad it's good he will tell us where he feends opportunity. later back from the dead pool why one of our traders says ryan reynolds could single-handedly turn it around for netflix. we'll explain when "fast money" we'll explain when "fast money" returns. so call unitedhealthcare and take advantage of a wide range of plans with a variety of benefits...
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welcome back to "fast money. stocks finishing the day deep in the red. the dow and s&p handing in the worst day since august on the back of the weak manufacturing data meantime europe has been pumping out pretty bad data but the next guest that's says it might be good let's go off the charts with chris ver even own. >> we know the european pmis awful. bad for two years. this is the german pmi peaking two years ago at 63. we know the last two years looked like. 63 down to the current print at 41 that's about as bad as we see historically the request he is after two years of weakness what is priced into the stocks here what we did we went back historically and looked at all the times the german pmi has been this low. what have german stocks done over the next six months
looking at the dates here, september of01, april of '03 january, '09 may '12. the forward performance six months later is sessional. up 25, 24% up 22, up 19 the question we ask ourselves today, german pmi at 41.7. is it so bad it's good in let's look at stocks s in the euro stocks, 60 600 index. did in decline last year price in what the data is telling us right now? when i look at the market today remarkably resilient, consolidating above the upward 200 day moving average held the 50. the bad news is priced in np a longer term look this is the you're ostocks going back over the last 30 years. we failed here in '99. we failed here in 2000
we failed here in 2015 we failed here in 2018 we think this time is different. we think we're at the highs but the bottom of the cycle. all the bad news priced in i would play for major breakout. what is one stock in europe that may be sending the message the biggest name asml, bellwether semi has broken out. you had two years of nothing over the last couple of weeks, along with the semis broadly acted really really well we know the data is bad, the pmis terrible. but what's prays priced in at this point and deputy to we want to say it's so bad might be good. i think the message might be get long here. >> come on over. we will bring the chair in thank you very much, will. all right. chris, banks are a big part of european indices so if you ice isolated banks does the chart look as good as
the overall you're owe stock 600. >> there has been quiet yochlt the last number of months but i don't think you can say the banks are leading europe higher over the coming months or quarters europe broadly as we know is value oriented energy. a lot of energy, a lot of baepgs the u.s. banks aren't far from technical ground the european banks here if you want to make a bank call cross do to closer to home jp morgan answering acts great some of regional starting to turn i recognize today was soft making people uncomfortable. is this a repeat of 4 q raft jeer snink the market is on fireman farm firmer technical grounds democrat domestically and europe. >> why it is it ferm are i know your call is europe but why is u.s. on firmer technical ground versus a year ago. >> kplekt domestically then geographically. >> more stocks above the 200 day average, more stocks in upfriend than you did with the year ago with the s&p at lower level.
the internals are broader. think back a year ago. the only thing working anywhere in the world was u.s. large cap tech it is broader today. europe acts better brazil in a bull market. russia acts good kwoeria might be bottoming hong kong might be bottoming, samsung turned pup a lot of the bell weathers in the world paint a stronger picture than 12 months hence. >> in europe you are saying we are seeing a big european breakout led by european technology companies? >> well there is not mm that exist technology companies. >> yeah. >> i wanted to highlight asml -- this is as it 100 billion-dollar company in what globally has been a very good group look at every global kbloebl bell weather semi. taiwan semi major breakout the last couple weeks. there is a good tone in terms of cyclety in the market. >> technically in europe.
>> a lot of consumer in europe. >> the consumer will be the important factor. >> look at discretionary versus staple the discretionary cyclical outperforming the staple you have seen a turn there a lot of health care particularly in the swiss market that's acting well here. i think there is things to do over there. >> thank you, chris. strategic. >> you buy europe. >> interesting stuff arbor chris brings to the table. you have tosume the trade deal think about the waitings in germany. auto stocks, simons, hypertrade stocks but it's down 22% on relative bases to the s&p since the blow off top of january 28. half a of your investment is going to be currency and europe is trading two-year lows to the dollar. >> he mentioned taiwan semi looked beautiful broke out of the two-year base on the flip guide. xia links. 5g build as has done 40% made a new lo low -- still up on the year a little bit.
but i think there is a counterpoint for every interest. i said chris said a lot of great stuff if you don't know the equal tate i have stuff the hid nds facing the global economy. >> we have the earnings alert on stitch fix the stock heading lower in the after hours. we break down the headlines opinion later big beef for mcdonald's and jp morgan deorred up a not so happy meal for the golden afternoons "fast money" back after this quick break. through the at&t network, edge-to-edge intelligence gives you the power to see every corner of your growing business.
welcome back to "fast money. we have the earning alert on stitch fix the stock under pressure in the after hours. town 4%. for details on the quarter let's get to courtney rayingen >> the reaction to the earnings stitch fix down as much as 11% but up 2% after big moves ahead of the earnings in the last two sessions and new news stitch fix gain 4% into today's 5% on monday active ut users relatively in line for expectations. though the kwurnt consider quarter guidance range is bloep the expect aches revenue per active client growing 9% in the fiscal fourth quarter. on the conference call ongoing
the cfo said the guidance is figured in it's working to mitigates impacts. but putting together the impacts expected to be immaterial. executives have been spending time talk bag new personalized offer programs, including recommendations where are for clothing and accessories that would go with what a consumer already purchased from stitch fix as well as offering new colors prints or sizes from items that customers bought previously there is still yet to be much detail about the launch in the uk though on the call. it's worth noting that the share moves on pretty volatile in this name before and ever after earnings, the short interest in stitch fix is 40%. the past four earnings reports have seen double digit moves in reaction to the results. it could be a bumpy ride again tomorrow. >> thank you, courtney reagan and we're hearing from stitch fix katrina lake sittingdown jim in friday 6:00 p.m. eastern on "mad money." what what's your take, karen >> well, it's interesting. so i actually find the company
intriguing the valuation is not something i could get my hands around. but they make money. they actually do make money. and that is somewhat of a differentiator, right. so i wouldn't know what to do. it's dangerous with the 40% short interest either way i think stay away. >> let's move on hit shares of mcdonald's getting cooked today. >> oh. >> it's the buzz kill. the stock falling more than 2% en after jp warning that the third quarter earnings maybe softer. the analyst behind the call warning slower sales estimates for the summer dominated by chicken sandwich wars between wars between the competitors. remember the taste test test on "fast money. jp morgan still bullish on the gold arches but is mcdonald's hot rally about to cool off? dan, thoughts? >> this is one that's interesting. there are megacap names you think are defensive because of the moats and the geographic
exposure from a technical standpoint that broke the uptrend looks like a broken stock to me when you have the bulls once bulls come out nchgtly on these you start put together fundamental things, technical things with sentiment and say i don't know why you buy it up so much and you own it ifyou went out long it means you bought it last night. but i mean it doesn't look like something you want to commit fresh capital to. >> the camps are difficult on the qsr sales. i think they're around 2.5%. this is part of -- they see insight into the sales number and think they are down a bit. agree, imthe stock has been a hero for a long time and why don't you wait for the number see what happens. >> i think the reality is this stock just traded 29 times and 27 times and now starting to pull back a bit. looking at the low end of 17 and higher end of 29 in terms of pe and things near the high you have to wait i agree, dan i loved the companies whether
home dough poe. >> you've been mcdonald's a long time. >> love them i think they do a great job. executing perfectly with everything they are doing including speeding up the drive through all the things they are supposed to do they're doing but it's in front of itself because too many people like the stock. i think $200 bucks great buy not at 220. >> coming up, how hollywood heart throb ryan reynolds inserted himself smack dab in the middle of the streaming wars we plain and later we tell what you the three stocks have in common heading in the earning reports, don't go anywhere. much more "fast money" right much more "fast money" right after thismemory. the secret is an ingredient originally discovered... in jellyfish. in clinical trials, prevagshown to improve short-term memory.
take out some truly evil people. >> we stop at the stairwell >> that was a bad idea. >> welcome back to "fast money." that is the first trailer for six underground, a new action movie from netflix featuring ryan reynolds. reynolds tweeting the michael bay film earlier day and it racked up offer a million views. could the bring it back from the dead it's no longer flat on the year
ending in in the green after falling 27% in the quarter. >> it's not just in heg hung ryan reynolds we have a man crush on. >> a lot of. >> that thing dropped today and no one knew. and it looks sawsome then the irishman that caught the buzz that's released on november 1st in theaters then on netflix. netflix down 35% since highs in april after disney had the massive rally when they introduced disney plus >> they're all on. >> netflix down. disney up. could it go the opposite way possibly self? i'm saying when you think about sentiment -- this is not going to launch this on noech 12th and the massive hit all of a sudden confirming the move. ly tell you disney is hugging this 130 breakout level really important that it stayed above since the breakout in april. disney at critical support level. netflix oversold and getting cigarette press.
>> the stock up 35%. >> i didn't speck it. >> shocked he is bullish onning. >> particularly netflix. the combination of both i am. >> we know that it made sense it went this which the last few months it may go the other way the next few. >> wow but it makes sense it wentway last two months it makes sense it's going lower the ieshishman and ryan relds he is a hung this and that, great. >> all of you guys are saying he is a had zblung of course he is. >> he is the man. >> doesn't make sense. this is a story stock. story stock getting sold they have to make money. >> i'm not pounding the table. here is what we saw in that last quarter. we saw north american subs decline for the first time in a decade are the things like irishman and this could in reaccelerate that. >> yes. >> that subgrowth? >> no. >> and this is the stock. >> no in. >> you get to saturation i mean that's. >> dude, martin scores see is expecting robert deniro i'll let
you know >> too late i already peaked. >> guy's watching it. >> i got nothing left. >> i'll see the movie it's great. ryan reynolds all day long. >> all day "fast money" ryan reynolds all day. >> i hope he is listening. >> he is a huge fan of the show. >> watches every night i'm told. >> i own netflix and i phoned lean to the side you go where i think they are doing what they need to do they have some stuff in the hopper that i think will work for them down 35% makes sense that maybe there is upsfwlood ryan reynolds, the hung. >> i guess he is a hung. >> karen. >> yeah, that's the game is ryan a hung yes. >> hunk. >> the positioning. >> right has been -- it's about positioning and everything in the markets. positions that government off sides to the nchgt. >> still rich valuation. >> sure.
>> to put it a bow on this thing. i think what netflix has been able to demonstrate- i'm not running the show i think that the -- able to demonstrate when they spend money on the irishman or do the original stuff with stranger things or you dee the drop of the movie with the a list actor they are doing things traditional studios can't. that tells me there has to be a combination with netflix with a larger entity maybe it's back to the apple scenario i don't know but this is- they are doing things well process but not making money they lose a lot on a the free cash flow basis to sustain. >> economic data could spell trouble for a group of stocks. we tell i which. jim talking with the kohn edison ceo. we are live at the nasdaq in times square much more "fast money" still much more "fast money" still ahead.
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that could allow hackers devices into your home.ys and like all doors, they're safer when locked. that's why you need xfinity xfi. with the xfi gateway, devices connected to your homes wifi are protected. which helps keep people outside from accessing your passwords, credit cards and cameras. and people inside from accidentally visiting sites that aren't secure. and if someone trys we'll let you know. xfi advanced security. if it's connected, it's protected. call, click, or visit a store today. . welcome back to "fast money. we have a bunch of big names gearing up to report earnings tomorrow and going right up against key economic data. dan at the plasma with names to watch. >> let's look at three names that i think could be an interesting preview heading into the earnings over the next few
weeks that are reporting i think they have kblirkss in the jobs daytime rowe data thp before the opening tomorrow morning. we have two names. up to watch and see what they say about guidance and what are things impacting guide ins paychecks this might be an interesting read through to the jobs data on friday. the implied move in the options market is 3.5% in either direction. that is basically double the move over the last four quarters one of the things i think it's interesting about paycheck it's up fiesly on the year it's in a downtrend the last few months not a lot of push to the upside as we have seen the s&p make new highs during that period this is the chart over the last ten years. it's been an absolute monster but think about that this is an interesting flag i suspect it's something that is not particularly sustainable in the near term especially if we see jobs data starting to abate a little bit let's go over to lennar. we have had home builder data.
this is a group acting well with the move in rates over the course of the year the implied move in the options market is 4.5% on average how much it's moved the last four quarters we have seen earning earnings out of group that have been fine that's one of the reasons why maybe it's implied in line with the movement but again this chart looks different here this broke out to a new high a lot of strength into that print. i'm not sure that the guidance is going to be something that actually keeps that going. but, again, over the last ten years i think it's kind of interesting. that was this kind of 2017-18 move, unable to break out above that level so, again at a pretty important technical level. and then let's go to retail. we know this is really a tale a many cities but retailers like bed bathand beyond don't act well implied ongss move in the market this is the close about 15% over the last four quarters it has
moved 13%. one of the reasons for the implied move the stock is cut in half from the highs this year. made a bounce here high interest, low expectations here. an unloved name that one has potential to move. >> well, what do we think of the three stocks. >> a lot of information there. >> he packed allocate of stuff in there. >> that was a lot with. >> as dan does. >> lennar is the most interesting. heim a seller of best buy about pap bad bed bath and beyond. there is not enough for the guys out there. but with the home builders lennar is profitable lower rate environment which we have seen has the uptick that doesn't change stay in the home build zbleers do you agree with the prem i suppose that is a pastiche, a mosaic of the economy. >> if if correlates with the
economy which it coast it show as strong consumer playing into lennar which i agree with that but bed bath and beyond doesn't seem to be able to get it right even though the consumer wants to buy what they sfwleel because they have the 20% off coupen >> the stock has been struggling but i look at lennar i love the housing world right now. i continue to see nothing but positives out of that. lennar of the group stands out most we watched time and time again the deliveries in-housing right now have been great. >> yeah. dan, are you saying that these three stocks will be the sort of mosaic to pile on top of the carnival, micron, the fedexs that have reported so far. >> i think as you think about the market in frostbite of let's say louisiana earnings season it's important to get early looks. and some of the commentary we may see from the managements might give you a bert sense of how the market trades after we get the bigger companies and larger swath of companies reporting. to me this is kind of a free look at some of the commentary
that we might see. >> all right, thanks for that dan, dan nathan with the "options action. you can catch the full though by the way fridays, 5:30 p.m. eastern time coming up next, the fil coming up next, the fil adesna ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ high protein. low sugar. tastes great! high protein. low sugar. so good! high protein. low sugar. mmmm, birthday cake! pure protein. find our coupons in sunday's paper.
welcome back to "fast money. quickly recapping the day stocks tumbling on weak manufacturing data the dow and s&p fiechd handing in the worst day since august. closing lower by 1.25% time now for final trades around the horn pete. >> chinese company a lending company like this name we set huge call giddyup going higher. >> the ryan reynolds show. whose what's your favorite ryan reynolds the proposal was very charming anyway, disney we talked about the ones that make money in the media space. disney is one. not netflix. i buy disneyland. >> chairwoman. >> short hyg, asymmetric. >> what about his wife in the town blake lively she was amazing. >> we're not talking about her.
>> ryan reynolds. >> semis i think you sell every rally i haven't said that pennsylvania while. months and months. no, no. >> that does it for us be back tomorrow on more fast. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it "mad money" starts now >> hey, i'm cramer welcome to mad money i'm trying to save you money my job is to educate you, teach you, put this guy daye day in ct the market deserved to get hit today. when the purchasing managers
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