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tv   Street Signs  CNBC  December 4, 2019 4:00am-5:01am EST

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that's all for this edition of "dateline." i'm natalie morales. thanks for watching. [theme music] good morning and welcome to "street signs. i'm joumanna bercetche these are your headlines uk prime minister boris johnson confirmed britain's commitment to nato. members arrive in north london for the meeting. >> this is a very simple concept of safety in numbers at the heart of it is a pledge that we will come to one another's defense. all for one. one for all. >> european stocks bump the
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trend after trade fears spook wall street. the u.s. bill that will affect cooperation with china sterling reaches a seven-month high after polls suggest boris johnson will win at the upcoming election bad reception. orange shares dial down after the french telecom company announces plans to split up the power unit good morning and welcome to the show a lot to get through, not the least with all these nato arrivals we have the final composite pmi numbers coming in at 51.6 higher than the estimate of 50.3. the services numbers coming in
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higher than the flash estimate at 51.9 versus that 51.5 flash number both of these. the composite and services number for the pmis are coming in slightly stronger than the flash estimate about five minutes before the show started, the german composite came in at 49.4 versus the flash number of 49.2, so all the numbers are coming in slightly stronger. a bit of a ball ns coming in at 110.80 world leaders are arriving in london. due to have a hold shake ceremony soon. we have some live pictures where the arrivals are set to take
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place. they've been happening over the last 45 minutes or so. divisions have overshadowed the submit with a war of words erupting between the u.s. and france and paris has also head out toward turkey. the uk support of the alliance is strong. >> our commitment to this alliance is absolutely rock solid. i'm very glad to see everybody coming here to the 70th anniversary leader's meeting today. the reason nato is so successful and provides peace and security for 29 countries, a billion people is a simple concept of safety in numbers. at the heart of it is a pledge that we'll come to one another's defense. all for one. one for all. >> that was boris johnson on the commitment on nato you are looking at live images of what i believe is marine one.
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that is the hospital for president trump who will be joining shortly. we'll keep an eye on that. and after that, a hand shake ser m ceremony will take place let's get out to hadley live there, speaking of the president, the u.s. president, one of the big thorns in his side has been defense spending and that other countries have not been pulling their weight of 2% but if you look back over the last year, the overall spending has been up and there has been progress there >> no doubt that had a lot to do with donald trump making it the sticking issue the last couple of years i got to tell you, it seems as if nato leaders are finally starting to get their own back
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most of it frankly regarding not just the future of nato but the future of turkey within the alliance questions of whether that purchase of the planes from russia president trump suggesting that is not that big of a problem with the united states that seems to put him at odds with his own defense community a lot of push back from the europeans. that has to do with the situation in syria and that president erdogan has said he wants nato first to recognize the refugee as a terrorist organization a lot of things on the agenda.
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there will be a lot of conversations on the major sticking points from leaders as of late. i had a chance to catch up with the secretary-general of nato and asked him, is it exhausting hearding cats the way you have to do. he didn't want to go there but listen in. >> we have plans in place to protect all nato allies including the baltic countries and poland we have not only plans but also forces for the first time in our history, we have a combat troops deployed to the baltic region. one of the groups being led by germany and lithuania. >> despite all of the disagreements we've heard not just this nato summit, certainly
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in previous meetings and talking about that 2% commitment this morning, he's saying they are battle ready if there is any opportunity needed for the nato troops not just in the baltics but elsewhere also the future of the alliance including japan >> thank you we are looking at images of president erdogan coming in. he is a contentious figure as well after the comments made by mr. macron saying the nato is brain dead, erdogan responded saying mr. macron may be brain
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dead we'll expand the conversation a little more. i want to bring in our panelists with us today. the head of global political research in london thank you for joining us as with he keep an eye on the leaders arriving i'll start with you with a general question it was the first secretary-general who said the nato core mission was to keep russians out, americans in and germans down that was 70 years ago. what is nato defined by today? what is their core mission >> i think it is defined by democratic inertia when it
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defeated the soviet adverse arie it should have had a champaign party and packed up but they like to keep going but what it has done is to keep the russians not only out but push the russians to the east. of course, this has meant that russia is now an adverse arie again. another great lord of that mission, the great u.s. diplomat said in the 1990s said expanding nato post soviet russia will be a self-fulfilling prophecy that's what it has done. they've maintained their jobs. >> you seem to have a skeptical view of nato's role. you are a russia expert. is russia still the for midable
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foe it was >> it is nowhere near the threat the soviet union was with regard to the nuclear arsenal it is true nato has struggled to find a strategic mission for itself the expansion eastward, there has been a lot of philosophy around that. it did provide eastern european, poland, baltic states the emerging and security they needed to develop democratic constitutions and consolidate as market economies but it is true that nato has gotten so large that there is going to be diver diverge ans of turkey. particularly with turkey the detachment is something we are looking at quite a bit >> and that is the catalyst out
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of the comments from macron was the turkey incursion i'll ask you about macron's brain dead comments. what do you think he was saying? is he saying they cannot rely on the principal of article five anymore that an attack on one member is an attack on all of them or is it the fund dealing from nato >> joumanna, your colleague asked about that quote we could only infer what he meant. my answer would be he meant there were french troops on the
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ground in syria kpcombatting the jihadist and one ally, turkey with another with the united states, invaded the other with allied troops on the ground on the other side of the barricades i think macron was saying your allies shouldn't do that thing they shouldn't attack where the others are there that is my interpretation. >> to pick up on the european defense fund and spending more on the continent defense spending as opposed to allocating to nato do you think that is an idea that will take off >>it is an old idea. you mentioned the beginnings of the cold war back in the 50s it was the western european
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union. that was meant to be a stand alone security and defense configuration in europe which wouldn't be an alternative or surplant nato. macron is a ballist politician is picking up an old idea and dusting it off >> that is part of his overall messaging which is to bring europe closer together i want to tell viewers that this is indeed marine one landing we'll see images of the u.s. president waubing out to attend the submit we saw president erdogan walking in not the least because of the purchase of the defense system from russia. we'll talk more about that in detail waiting for the u.s. president
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to exit the helicopter as we are waiting, i want to get back out to you. one of the interesting turn arounds yesterday during one of the president's three 45-minute press conferences. he switched the narrative from being the person criticizing nato a year ago to calling the alliance some what obsolete to defending and saying nato has done a great thing and been great for many countries even though it has treated the u.s. unfairly this is a shift in tone out of the u.s. president do you think that is partially prompted by those comments and if so, he's been effective getting the u.s. back on board again, hasn't he >> it is difficult to dispute the idea that it was the comments that brought this across from trump. he's referenced him specifically whether this demonstrates a
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renewed commitment, it is a bit more difficult to say. i don't think anybody would accuse this particular white house of being overly consistent in terms of the policy statement or statements on its foreign policy at this point there is a degree to which president trump is somebody who has a keen grasp with pr he likes to create an air of tension or something almost about to fall apart so he can portray himself. there is the degree to which this is a bit of a show being put on and what it actually means would be more difficult to say. >> talking about the defense spending angel i'll come back to you. off the cuff, president trump throughout there and said defense spending will move up to 4%
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no one is reaching that. even the u.s. is at 3.5% the bottom line, if you look at the numbers, defense spending has gone up about 11%. so it is moving the right direction. so he has been successful to get other members to cough up. >> that's right. he is a proponent of pr. he himself said that, he tweeted that nato had been transforming and improving thanks to his efforts. the figures show that. however, there is a long way to go the case of germany is increasing its defense spending from 1.5% gdp present at a sn
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snails pace up to 2% >> we just saw angela merkel it is a long way to go as you said i'll get back to you on the german angel a lot of talk going into nato was about france and that brain dead comment and macron. germany is still at 1.4% and the second element is the fact that they are moving ahead with this pipeline with russia about 40% of european gas supplies come from russia. how do you square the circle here that on one hand, you've got nato seemingly preparing themselves for an attack from russia but then also relying on them for oil and gas imports
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>> first off, german defense spending has been lower for historic reasons making the argument for rearment in germany is difficult for obvious historical reasons in terms of the gas pipeline, germany and europe would see that as a separate issue when we make the case that natural gas is not a fungable commodity. in this sense, it is just as important for russia to sell that gas to europe as it is for europe to use that gas in production the idea of a russian gas production is something we've been skeptical of in terms of the economics in terms that it is costly for russia to use.
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>> we are looking at live images of president trump walking across the lawn to attend the nato meeting we've seen other leaders arrive including chancellor merkel and president erdogan. we've seen president trump touch down and walk in shortly, we'll be watching a hand shake ceremony between all of the leaders and the second gerl we'll keep an eye on that and any commentary that comes out of that we did hear early on from prime minister boris johnson who was reiterating the commitment saying one for all all for one is the underpinning commitment of that article 5 principal that we were just discussing so just to bring it back to our panelist, the head of global political research, i want to bring it back to you,
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christopher. going back to what we were saying about russia and their role in all of this. do you see what is happening in turkey and the fact that they had purchased the defense system as a maneuver on russia's part to angel in and create tension they see what is happening there is still a lot of discourt with turkey, they are seeing a bit of opportunity to create more discord >> that is correct one could go further there is a number of incentives and reasons for doing things one reason or motive to have add was commercial the large country which are producers of defense equipments. russia does have this advanced air system which goes through
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various levels that is the version turkey has purchased. on the political goal, i would agree with you it puts a certain amount of tension into the nato alliance which russia regards as an adver adversary and threat coming across borders as for turkey's motive that is an interesting question. for me, the most convincing explanation is that turkey, especially with the leadership under president erdogan and since the failed coup of 2016, no longer trusts the united states to support it if you have russian defense equipment, it gives you a backup in case any american equipment suddenly doesn't work. i think it is an insurance policy by turkey in the context
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of a political estrangement. not a lasting political solution but certainly estrangement with the united states. >> where do you see turkey's future with nato do you see them being a continual member or is there a risk other member states such as france will push for their alienation >> there is no charter in nato for expelling a member it would have to be on an initiative or something extraordinary like nato refounding themselves without turkey it is not in anybody's interest to push turkey out there is a balancing act to keep turkey in the camp so there is some military to military contact and turkey isn't totally
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in the adversary camp. particularly for europe, this has a lot of implications for security, economics, for refugees we'll see further proliferation of issues. not only in northern syria but around cyprus. trying to settle the north and southern cyprus issue so they can start looking for natural gas off the coast. that's one interest turkish interests are coming into conflict with the rest of europe it is difficult to see where they can square that circle. it is more likely they'll see these things move along. to bring it back, from russia's point, they want to sow division and discord but at this point,
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they don't have to do much the politicalcontra dictions are such that russia can sit back and watch. >> it has also expanded so much. i want to bring you some tweets from the u.s. president. we saw him walking across the lawn he must have pulled out his phone and tweeted. he said i enjoyed my meeting with the uk prime minister boris johnson. i talked with johnson about nato and trade. i think we can all read between the lines there. what he didn't say is i talked with johnson about the elections and brexit he has been notably trying to steer himself out of the debate when it comes to the political environment. he was asked questions about it yesterday and he said he didn't want to give an opinion but did reinforce what he said in the past and that boris johnson would be a good man to lead the country in the future.
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he also reiterated that nhs was not on the table even if it was handed to the u.s. on a silver platter, he wouldn't want it anyway he's tweeting about that informal meeting they had an off-camera meeting yesterday. the uk prime minister boris johnson and u.s. president no media was there it looks like the discussion was solely focused on trading issues and nato as well to come back to you, the head of europe and principal analyst do you think one of the reasons there is so much discord is that they've added too many nato member states right now? >> i wouldn't say it is because they've added too many members but because the politics of a lot of those states have changed. we go back to the 1970s, we had two nato members, turkey and
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greece at war. we had france withdraw from the nato united command structure and rejoin we are nowhere near as divided as nata was before we have seen a turn in turkey and we have seen a turkey that the prospect of european union membership and integration into europe has faded it has become much less of a secular country under the party and it started on this more neoottoman policy looking towards the middle east. we don't need to go into the united states here and the threats and challenges facing nato members are changing. nato was primarily an organization set up to counter traditional military threats the idea was that if russian tanks started to move west, there would be nato tanks to
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meet them. we are now in the age of what people would call hybrid warfare and media manipulations. we can do more effectively and quickly given modern communications policy and more serious challenges like cyber warfare like shutting down somebody's electricity grid or even having a direct flash point in the same way you would have along the line. >> certainly, those are new types of threats i want to broaden this out to something a bit more philosophical. that is the future of these multilateral systems and the framework. in the beginning the u.s. president has pursued
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an america first policy. we are seeing with the wto as well but next week, the senior body at the wto will be dispanned mainly because the u.s. has rejected or vetoed all of those brought up for the key roles the u.s. has been pulling away from these multilateral organizations. what does this do for the pra je t trajectory is there a path back >> it is a tough question but an important one. as you were saying, many of the problems we are thinking about today have been there in the past the idea that united states,
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although the architect and cornerstone of the post world war ii global architecture, including the trade which became the wto, has still even in the heyday, the united states was much more unilateral it never ratified the treaty on the national criminal court and many other multilateral initiatives. what we are seeing under the presidency of is more a difference of degree rather than kind the question of can they be rode back after the trump presidency ends either next year or in 2024, that is a good question for u.s. analysts.
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i think the direction of travel will remain as it is even if the intensity and the pace not to mention the pr and the tweet storm may ease up a bit. i think the heyday of the multilateral order is over for investors, this is perhaps the main conclusion which is fairly abstract. they don't intervene too often in the day-to-day life of investors. nevertheless, the breakdown of the global multilateral order and global trade is going to affect valuations negatively and so on. >> we'll pick up that conversation president macron has also just arrived at the nato meeting. you can see him waubilking out f his car there. we saw president trump,
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chancellor angela merkel walk in about 15, 20 minutes ago their meeting should be kicking off soon before that, we expect to see a hand shake ceremony. you expect some interesting discussions. let's listen to president macron right now. [speaking non-english ] [speaking non-english >> so we just heard from president macron i'll give you a lose transition.
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he said they are looking to solve some of the am bbiguityies and they'll be looking to resolve some of the issues not beyond president trump pushing member states to get to that 2%. i think only nine are inspected to reach that state by 2020. president macron also talking about how they will deal with the common threats and indeed of terrorism as well. a topic that has gripped europe closely over the last couple of years. those were comments from president macron as he was walking in to the nato alliance. just to pick up, we were talking about the future of the multilateral framework and we ended saying what we were talking about the geopolitical discussions haven't affected the markets that much.
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one big white elephant in the room is china. the growing economic cloud in the midst of a trade war with the u.s. we heard from the secretary-general saying there is a need for a nato/china policy in response to china becoming a growing threat. how do they manufacture a response and also china is very, very far from europe. >> with great difficulty i started by remarking on nato characterized by bureaucratic inertia. with regard to the rise of china and the major strategic question in our world as you say, it is difficult to see how that any come tense for
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nato given the positioning can be credibly created in relation to china if i can just add, mr. macron's very interesting remarks i'll add one point he mentioned the defense spending question. he said he did not want to have the meeting concentrate on that. he started by saying, who is our enemy. his answer was neither russia nor china. terrorism. the french army loss, if i'm not mistaken, 13 personnel killed in action last week in cooperations against jihadist fanning out after the ill iladvised
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destruction. the migrant problem will accentuate this has very strong and financial market implications. >> yes, that is an excellent point. we are looking at the uk prime minister boris johnson standing side by side with stoltenberg. we are waiting for the official meeting to kick off. we heard from president macron walking in that is the president of north ma masadonia walking on we'll keep an eye on the various leaders as they walk in and shake the hands of mr. stoltenberg and prime minister johnson. i want to come back to ask you
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about the very good point. that is that the biggest adversity or threat to the nato alliance is not russia or china but terrorism. if that is the case, then increasing spending from 1.5% to 2% and buying fighter jets isn't really going to do much, is it >> that is true. we have to remember as well from the french perspective we had the terrible events on london bridge last week, looking back a few years to the attacks in paris or nice there is more of a focus there the question is, how do you combat terrorism one of the most effective ways
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is through enhanced intelligence at the moment, we see the uk is exiting one of the most effective coordinating mechanisms the european union we don't know how intelligence cooperation will happen in the future eek kw equally, the president of the united states has given cause to pause. the incursion in syria will make leaders question if they are not coordinating with us, how can we coordinate on other sensitive areas. there is also the issue of, who is a terrorism this is the core of the dispute with turkey as to whether the wpg should be designated on this
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point. our view is that president erdogan has something of a point hereof how the western allies have treated the pkk versus the ypg and other groups they are not going to stand up saying russia is our enemy, china is our enemy you want to be careful how you use these terms. russia and the u.s. in some ways the issue for nato as we discussed earlier. there are a lot of threats that are nongeograph call they are expanding the influence on baelton road >> what do you make of the closing of ties with russia.
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do you see that strengthening. >> the power of siyberia pipeline the question is how much forra authoritarian states in terms of the color revolution and the ukraine and georgia putting on a united front and how much there is a genuine basis for a relationship here. china is many times larger in terms of military potential. operating in a different theater with regards to its own ambitions. in any arrangement, russia would have to be the junior partner.
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of course, the kremlin is not going to consign itself to that role even in the uk with that acknowledgment with the relatively modest role in the world. it is a medium power but not a superpower the relationship with the united states is never explicitly one of a big brother and the small lieutenant the uk leaders like to pretend it is more of a equal partnership. the same with russia and china how much that can be maintained in reality we have to take into account, there are cultural factors >> do you have a view on the growing axis in the world with russia and china pivoting closer to one noeranother.
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and the framework that existed since world war ii breaking down >> i largely agree the strategic alignment between russia and china would exist and is deepening is more a reaction to perceived pressure from the united states and its alliance system very important the asian system as well in japan and south korea and the philippines and so on. it is a common ground contrasting here, i would agree with the more organic relationship between the united kingdom and united states which has a well-known historical a finities it is not a grand alliance for all time but it is certainly a strategic alliance today
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all of those ladies and gentlemen we are seeing on the screen will have to take seriously. the previous role in arms control is a very important priority britain and france as nuclear powers nato as such is difficult to see the particular role in that area >> i think we are about half way through this handshake ceremony. there are 29 members we are probably around 14 members. they are just coming through shaking the hands. coming back to what you set. with the new threats what is the best way to combat these threats at a nato level? do you see scope for further investments in that space rather than spending on for cyber jets.
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>> i think the historically proven answer to that is the deterioration to arms control. if you attack us, be under no illusions, we are capable of defending ourselves and we will. but our goal has been to reduce tensions macroand president tru macroand -- macron and president trump despite their public disagreement they agree on the importance of getting along better with russia that's the language that president trump uses how do get along better? you do arms control. you agree on the old fashioned thing of conventional forces and nuclear control pulling them
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back from the front line arms control analogies in these other areas of cyber space, cyber warfare and outer space is more difficult to envision because we lack conventional templates. that is the real task. my personal opinion that taxpayers should be pleased if we see the security and defense bureaucrats around nato and other such working hard on that type of think. >> i want to bring it back to central eastern european baltic states defense spending by each member state from 2014 to now if you look at the proportion, some of the biggest increases have come from ce states, essentially baltic states. >> i'll give you two reasons
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georgia and ukraine. all of these states have within memory of most of their leadership these guys got their start in anti-communist politics have heard russian tanks and troops in their streets and do know what it is like to live under an occupation when they see russia taking a more military posture in ukraine and georgia, that will worry them ee equally, not only if some sort of a shooting war should start, they want to have the ability to defend themselves on the ground. they are extremely important and we are at a point there is again some historical distrust of
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germany. there is weariness of european defense policy will french troops really come to the defense of astonia >> for them, staying close to the united states is very important. staying close to the alliances that gives them as much of a deterrent as possible is important. we should be clear here that it is vastly unlikely that russia will invade the baltics. the kremlin isn't stupid they are fully aware that they clash. it wouldn't be a fair fight. what they would be worried about is a situation where either nato has stabilized to the point where the securities don't really mean much or where we are in an advanced late putinism
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where things could get out of control or out of hands. they want to demonstrate where good members keep the alliance as politically cohesive as possible >> you mentioned ukraine the country that has shot into the spotlight because of the impeachment holdings in the united states. what has the the situation demonstrated with regard to security and trump's personal ambitions? >> we haven't seen any statements from other leaders even president zelensky who has been measured. paying attention to dr. fiona
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hill's testimony and would be worried that the president of the united states using national security and european security issues to advance his own domestic political concerns. that is something where you are in germany you say this is something that affects us very much why are you doing this without consulting us? that raises questions about the reliability of the trump administration in a crisis it raises questions about other policy choices with regards to turkey, china, russia. it adds to this atmosphere of uncertainty over how much the alliance can be relied on and that produces this tension with president macron who wants europe to be mora te automomous
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actor. germany is the one that comes up on the one hand, it doesn't matter to them so long as they are defended against russia potential aggression on the other hand, they are not necessarily sure that these are the states that will stick up for them history plays a major role here as we look at world war ii and some of the scars that are still there. >> do you want to weigh in on the impeachment hearings and how they have or have not really affected president trump's standing within the republican party. >> that is such a different subject. the ukraine is the subject matter of the impeach. inquiry, absolutely. it doesn't have a huge baring on the strategic questions we are
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discussing president trump has remarked himself that the congressionally mandated supplies of defense equipment to the ukraine which he allegedly used as a bargaining chip with the new zelensky administration to get things he wanted on the political arena from zelensky that his administration had previously supplied offensive or so-called lethal weapons to the ukraine. the main western european allies refused in the case of the europeans to do. the link between impeachment inquiry and ukraine and nato specific questions is not organic. it is more incidental.
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next monday, president macron will be hosting in paris, a very important summit for the european region. there is a conflict going on in the southeastern corner of the ukraine. this sum rp of the so-called norman di four the presidents of normandie, russia will meet to phase this carefully, to make progress >> here is president trump shaking hands with boris johnson and the secretary-general of nato stoltenberg the three of them, it has been an eventful 24 hours after the press conference with the president switching his comment from a year ago where he referred to nato as an obsolete
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organization reaffirming that other member states need to spend more when it comes to overall spending we did hear from president macron as he was showing up saying, look, it is not just all about the money and defense spending, this is a political alliance we need to have serious discussions about who is the common adverse arie is those are comments we had from president macron a short while ago. you can see the leaders are filtering in to the room to begin that meeting of 29 member states as they've been shaking hands with boris johnson and the secretary-general for the last hour or so let me take you quickly to european markets we've forgotten to talk about the markets. a quick look today we are in the green.
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this is in contrast to price of what we had out of wall street yesterday. there the team was a concern about trade war. we thought a phase one deal was on the table could happen as soon as this week. before the december 15 deadline. latest comments from president trump in london yesterday suggesting that the renegotiation of a phase one trade deal could be pushed back to after the 2020 election that sent markets into negative territory yesterday. we did get some better data out of china the mood in europe is bucking that trend with err seeing a lot of green on the board surprisingly. let me bring it back to our p panelists here to bring it back to you, we've done a full circle covering a lot of topics.
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today is the actual meeting. are you expecting anything tangible to come out of the conference if anything >> not really. these are large political set pieces it is not like all of these leaders are getting in a room and putting the agenda on the table and saying let's figure it out. most of these are taken care of by lower level officials before the meeting. there will probably be some sort of joint statement for the 70th birthday given the nature of the u.s. presidency, we can't rule out some sort of political fire works or storming out or something. we may see something in terms of a gesture of the nato/china policy that would be very little.
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>> thank you very much thank you for joining me there the head of europe and principal analyst. and the head of global political research at ts lumbard let's get back to hadley what are you going to be watching out for in the next couple of hours or so? it looks like we had lost hadley we had a brief image pop up. a lot of topics will be on the agenda today not the lease, defense spending, turkey and comments from president macron even though he tweeted that he's doubling down on those comments and stands by them and he does think reevaluation of the strategy and overall thinking of nato is something that needs to be
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discussed including some of sthoez n these threats cyber or hybrid threats or threats of terrorism. we'll leave you with the image of the leaders filtering into that room there. we have seen all of the major leaders in europe and president trump himself walk in to this meeting. images are breaking up a little bit there. i'll leave you with one last shot of u.s. futures before we head out all three majors are up in the green. that is it for "street signs" today. i'm joumanna bercetche "worldwide exchange" is coming up next. no matter what i wore, i worried someone might see
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it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. wild markets swing futures rising on a report that u.s. and china are moving closer to a trade deal. meantime, new comments from beijing this morning as u.s. congress takes action on human rights violations in the world's second largest economy and an end of an era alphabet sees it


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