tv Power Lunch CNBC December 13, 2019 2:00pm-3:00pm EST
founder just gone. does that mean anything to you >> i think walmart is unwinding a lot of what they did as far as ecommerce goes >> i want to thank you happy holidays to you. >> happy holidays. you get any gifts yet? >> a couple. like most people waiting until the last minute. >> that does it for us on the exchange power lunch starts now good to have you here. welcome everybody to "power lunch. here is what's new at 2:00 finally, a phase one trade deal between the u.s. and china the ink may not be completely dry but as you can see from this chart behind me it's been a whip s saw day for the markets. no one is releasing the text just yet other than the principals plus, the u.s. travel association saying there's a slow down, a slow down that will last through 2023 as fewer people are coming to the united
states the person behind that report will be here and later, carson clock. right now carson will join us to fight back you don't want to miss it. "power lunch" starts right now let's get straight down to more on what we know about the phase one deal and what we are still trying to figure out >> what we know is it's an 86 page deal in a leather bound book outlining principals on intellectual property and currency by which both countries will abide china will be purchasing $200 billion in u.s. goods includin up to $50 billion in agriculture goods. it will be no new tariffs so long as the two sides are
abidesing by the agreement and continuing negotiations. no additional tariff roll backs are scheduled beyond the september 2019 round that president trump announced by tweet today. ambassador bob lighthizer told reporters he expects some ministe ministers, not the leaders, to sign the deal in january in washington the deal will take effect 30 days after that. i asked what happened over the last two months after president trump already announced the deal in the oval office on october 11th he said the two countries at that time had made a commitment they needed to put exact figures behind that and that took a long time while he hail today's announcement as major commitment by china, he remains skeptical he said it would be wise to say we'll see whether china could carry out its end of the deal but the administration hailing this as a major development although it is not the end of
the road and they expect to continue into phase two negotiations just as soon as this one is signed >> no one outside of the principals have seen the text of the deal the sharp pinpoint number is $40 billion worth of agriculture product purchase $200 billion in total u.s. goods purchased. there are skeptics that say $40 billion is more than china has ever bought in agricultural products there's skepticism there talk to me a bit about that and second talk to me about what, if anything, we know about these intellectual property protections, technology transfer protections that seem to be woven into the text of the agreement we have not seen yet >> on those purchases the negotiators are using 2017 as the high water mark for that in that year china purchased $24 billion of u.s. goods. they said china is committing to
$16 billion per year across product categories and hoping they will throw in another 5 to $10 billion on top of that and they will make best efforts to do that. they do have product categories if they are expecting china to make these purchases in but they are not disclosing the spefkt amounts for the products because they don't want to lose the market in any direction. as far as the intellectual profit provisions we have a bit of a road map on the usmca which is house will vote on p next week a lot of the language is similar to what is in usmca and we heard that is going to be the road map for many future trade deals and it's happened just within the space of a week that a lot of that language will get borrowed and put into this smaller, skinnier deal. we are expecting to get a fact sheet with some more spechks about this deal later today that
will run through more of the details on what exactly china promised >> thank you very much let's get to the new york stock exchange for a check on the markets for this phase one preliminary deal that we have now with china hi, bob. >> hello the big question people keep asking me is we got a deal then why isn't the market reacting a little more. we're basically on the plat s e side -- flat side now. that's absolutely a positive overall. the problem is this is exactly what the market anticipated. this was the minimum amount that the market anticipated overall if you take a look at what's
moving on some ofitive names, ds a little bit so and apparel makers moved up a bit. they have done well. these are new highs and cat caterpillar near new highs they are not moving price wise but some of these big etfs with trade china stocks have heavy volume the big story is new tariffs not coming on the existing ones and the old ones, minor reductions back to you. >> thank you very much joining us is larry kudlow we're elighted you could slip away from a busy day to join us. >> thank you my great pleasure. >> nice to have you with us. we've been to this kind of precipice several times before
>> absolutely right. should believe it this time in is major development, large phase one deal he called it an enormous first step to the opening of china hopefully we will be resoevering some of the unfair trading practices. the president is defended american economic interest she's defended workers interest against unfair trading practices. archdiocese much trial and experimentation and meetings, my hats off to my colleague lighthizer who served with me years ago in the reagan administration
we will embark on phase two and be honest with you, i think this will stabilize the situation i think this will add some business confidence to the situation. i think it will benefit both parties. we are there now >> you raise several of the things we do want to go into the purchases of agriculture and other products but you touched on one of the things that was the enforceability of this let's go there first what if chinese who have not exactly been comcompliant, whatf
they don't what they have committed to do. what is our remedy. if the complaint is brought, it will be brought to the staff level. lit go to a deputy's level if it's not resolved. if it is not resolved at that point, it could go to the principaled level to further examination and analysis then if it's not resolvable some economic valuation will be akri askr ascribed and actions could be taken. i think people hope it doesn't
get to that point. these are good faith negotiations but sure. if you look at the profile of the tariff adjustments and i think this is very important i just spoke with the president only a few minutes ago about this, the december tariffs have been taken off the september tariffs have been had but we kept the $250 billion original tariffs at 25%. we have done that in the interest of the united states and the interest of the president and his leverage there are disputes that are not resolved i'm not forecasting. i'm just saying as a matter of fact that's the way we structured this to make sure there's an insurance policy for the american worker. >> larry, what criteria do the chinese need to meet to roll back more of the existing
tariffs because there was this expectation last night by the market that more of the existing tariffs would be rolled back if the chinese aren't acknowledging they will make changes to policies around intellectual property and technology transfer >> indeed. we expect them to make them in good faith those are part of the phase one. i don't want to forecast first of all, in terms of what was expected or not expected, you had a big market rally yesterday because the president suggested in strongest terms yet we would be close to a deal. that may accounted for it. phase two starts immediately let me come back to the phase one issues here. these things will be judged as we roll along.
a day at a time, a week at a time, a month at a time, a quarter at a time. we're putting this down. we will translate english to chinese and chinese to english we'll see how it works we'll see if the chinese stay with their word. for example, let me go into one of the issues here regarding intellectual property rights there's a section in that chapter that would prevent the kind of counterfeiting among tradeable goods. that's clearly an unfair trading practice if an american company is going for a license to do business
that any force technology transfer will not be used by the chinese. we will test those propositions, will we not? other chapters financial sfrs services is big change currency transparency is a big change i think the whole world will be watching the whole world will be watching to see if some of these key elements in the enforcement area in the counterfeiting area, in transfer of technology area, in the ip area, if they are put to good, honest use and if our chinese friends accommodate what's in this treaty. we'll be watching.
>> these two topics are settled and taken care of in way they will not be sitting out there on the horizon to be resoevveverre phase twodeal. are we done with technology transfer? my sense is let's take the transfer technology. some of that has been delt with in phase one my hundrch is more will spill or into phase two
>> let's get to the air of the $200 billion in purchases that china has committed to make of which 40 billion thereabouts is expected to be agricultural. what can you tell us about the above and beyond the 40 billion, what are those other purchases going to be? are they manufactured goods? people say 40 billion dollar in purchases almost double what they have done in the past can you really get there if you address those two areas, that would be great. >> i'll try. on the ag purchases and the 40 to 50 range is over a two-year period do i think it's doable yes. do will lighthizer think it's
doable yes. do mr. trump think it's doable yes. they have been in market buying ag and other commodities as good will that's doable. to answer some of your other questions, i want to stay qualitative. you're talking about large scale energy purchases you're talking about large scale manufacturing purchases and large scale imports of u.s. services i want to leave the numbers alone. >> larry, if the contours of the deal have been agreed upon, why wait until january to sign the phase one deal and will we get a phase two deal before the 2020 election >> look, i don't know whether -- phase two begins immediately i'm phase one and the signing. let me try to be clear on this this is bob lighthizer's turf. there has to be a certain amount of paper work and translation from english to chinese and i
guess their version comes back from chinese back into english then it will be signed, as i understand it, it will be signed not at the presidential level but at the ministerial level that's my current understanding. do not mistaken that for any stalling or doubts about the deal it's just a question of -- i want to call it a -- it's a clerical question. that's all it is as far as phase two, i have no idea i wouldn't want to put a timetable on any of that it's not a good idea to make predictions about these things opinion maybe it maybe it's not a good idea we have phase one the it's done.
it is completed. it begins today. at least many the technical spirit of the thing. it will be signed as soon as possible phase two begins this is a tremendous accomplishment president trump has changed the narrative against china and pointed out the unfair trading practices and he's bound and determined to defend the interest of the united states, it's committeeconomy, worse fok national security. i think this deal gives up some. both sides, that's the way to negotiate but we continue do have an insurance policy in terms of some of the ongoing tariffs and discussions and the structural changes in these documents. >> you've been very generous with your time and i know they are trying to pull you away. i'd love to talk about how you're thinking about tariffs as
e involved over the past few years. we'll save that for another occasion you've been in the camp for gdp growth for 2020. we're not there now. the fourth quarter is trending in the 2% neighborhood what does this deal mean what is the increment, if any, to american economic growth because of this trade deal >> i think it will be pro-growth i think it will help business confidence it's probably worth half a point but it's almost impossible to say. i think the fourth quarter will surprise everybody will strength the way the stock market is going and the sicyclical sectors is going it looks like 2020 will be a very, very strong economic year and you've already seen the jobs and the wages and the production
workers doing better than their managers and take home pay is up about 5,000 bucks. we're in very good shape >> on that note we'll leave it thank you as always. great to see you for more on what the trade deal means for the markets and if it will lift confidence, let's bring in cnbc contributor. what do you think? >> it's interesting. if you go back to may this entire deal broke down over translation issues larry said those were still to be handled on one hand he said it's a done deal and phase one has been finalized except for writing all this out, translating it back and forth and verifying chinese
complianplianc compliance he also said concessions were made on both sides i'm wondering what our concession was for now we're semiout of the woods but i would doubt it's fally done deal to be signed immediately. >> jeff, what do you make of this phase one trade deal? larry said it's put together but there still seems like a lot of specifics that the market wants clarity on and that's why the markets aren't moving. >> i think it's the deal the market expected. i think the market front ran this particular situation. what i think is important is now
we have a credible deescalation where investors believe we aren't going to see tariffs increase that might be the most important thing going forward. if you think about 2019 and what was the most important thing for the market, it wasn't trade. trade headlines move the market on the daily basis or weekly basis. it was the pivot in not only the federal reserve but the posture of global central bank when we're thinking about allocating, assets we're asking do we want to play defense or offense or should we be more worried about luosing money or making money there's a tremendous amount of liquidity. you have sentiment that's subdued and the economy is unlikely to go into a recession, i think you have to air on the side of the market going up versus the market going down >> was the deescalation enough for markets to move higher with the s&p 500 trading at 19 times
earnings that 25% tariff on $250 billion of chinese goods is still in place and affected a lot of the companies from caterpillar to retailers. >> i think market will come to this agreement larry said the text won't be available for a couple of weeks so that leaves some uncertainty. s >> it's still lower than if we hn hadn't had the trade war the market can move higher 55 rate cuts so far this year by global central banks with stimulus coming from the likes of japan and europe. there is some tail wind out there. i don't think this great question is over yet i still think it would be a minor over hang until it is literally hanging down
>> i think you're seeing evidence of a global bottoming and growth we were over $16 trillion. now we're closer to 11 trillion so the band markond market is t you growth will likely be better you're seeing better manufacturing data there generally leaving economic i understand indicators. with the removal of this uncertainty you're able to see things like lower interest rates work their way through the economy and we're already starting to see that as it relates to positioning, i like international here. if you think there will be a cyclical rotation of things like value, that's how the international indexes are constructed much more so than the united states. the valuation story is well told i think this could be a catalyst for better performance in those markets. >> ron, i'm going to ask you to
congressm commentate did peter navarro lose >> he lost despite the fact he circulated some viewpoints that the president should hold off until after the election, he lost. apple closing out the 2010s -- it's unbelievable it's a decade up 74% this year it's the best year of the decade for that company can the gains continue as the calendar turns to 2020 a battle between the ceo of carson block getting a little nasty early this week. listen >> i don't have a lot of time to deal with carson block and his new side kick stormy daniels >> carson block, minus stormy will join us next to react on
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a banner year for apple topping the dow with a 74% gain. it's best year in a decade it's the equivalent of two disneys. let's bring in your trading nation team. we have kind of stretched the upside is there anymore to come >> our concern is it might be too strong leaving apple vulnerable if you look at where apple is trading, we find it's 28% above that the average s&p stock is 5% above its moving average historically when apple reaches these heights it's vulnerable over the next few months of consolidating sideways while we're not negative we think it might be vulnerable because it might become a victim of its own success here. >> steve, during this move the stock is at its most expensive
or highest valuation in quite a number of years. is that justified by the business now >> i think 2019 is about the rise in services and the company rerated from 11 times to 20 times because they convinced the marketplace they were now a recurring sfrss company with stable revenue what will be interesting is we go to 2020, it will be the revenge of the hardware. with 5g ahead you can see a big chunk of this install base upgrade to faster internet speeds with first 5g iphone. you get a refreshed cycle. there could be short term noise but long term we still think it's a great company >> all right we'll see if it can hold that valuation in part of where it becomes the big mover. thank you very much. the ceo calling out to well
known short seller carson block. he'll join us next to respond. a new study says the u.s. tourism industry could hit some major turbulence the ceo of the travel association will weigh in. plus the baby yoda boom. hasbro beginning pre-order from its plush toy. it won't be stuffing anyone's stocking this christmas. we'll tell you about it when power lunch returns.
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presidential candidate michael bloomberg says the election victory for boris johnson is a ka catastrophic warning for democrats. >> the public clearly wanted a change in the uk the change was much more rapid and greater magnitude than anyone predicted i think it's sort of a catastrophic warning to the democratic party that you're going to have to have something that can beat donald trump the tunnel >> the tunnel to towers function says it will assume the mortgage of slain officer he was killed this week during a confrontati confrontation. >> the family of detective joseph seals, we're going to pay your mortgage. the tunnel to towers foundation will pay your mortgage before christmas so you never have to worry about your mortgage again. >> detective seals leaves behind
a wife and five children you're up to date. that's the news update this hour back to you. >> our thoughts and prayers with his family thank you. let's get a check on the markets now. the dow and s&p hitting highs this morning stocks pulled back but are trying to stay in positive territory. the dow session lo points earlier this week we had on the ceo of burford capital a litigation finance firm on the london stock exchange which had been shorted over the summer and accused of fraudulent accounting practices. the ceo had this to say on our air. >> i don't have a lot of time to deal with carson block and his new side kick stormy daniels he makes his money by coming in
very rapidly, running a short attack on a business and coming out again. he closed short on burford months ago today he started making these allegations and i think we have debunked and our investors agree, all of these allegations. >> joining us now is muddy waters founder and chief carson block. i want to clear up the matter of stormy daniels which was brought up in this comment that was a reference to a video, a kind of spoofing video that you did in which she made an appearance to suggest she is a new hanging buddy of yours sort of overstates it, right? >> well, that was a put down by chris -- of stormy daniels which is totally beside the point as to how accurate their accounts are. if the question is, why did we do this video featuring stormy daniels, the answer is this.
as chris comment or put down show, as an adult film actress she's not among societies most venerated class of people yet she is taking on the most powerful person in the country, one of the most powerful people in the world if there's anything you can say about my business and my team, it's that we like, we love the david versus goliath fight and we respect her, putting the politics aside that's one thing she had going for her but the other thing in that video, we're pushing the boundaries because we're tired of this apologist way of speaking and wrong doing but powerful people in finance industry we want to speak very clearly and we felt something who wouldn't have a problem pushing that boundary. >> let's move on from the video
which no one had seen, no one on this air, has seen a lot of your writing was some months ago have you exited that short position or are you short today and if so, by how much >> i'm very glad you asked that question because chris told one bald face lie when you had him in that chair on tuesday that lie was we exited our position chris knows that's not true. how does he know that's not true since we first went public in august, i've repeatedly made sta statement publicly and said we are short burford. we published since that initial report four update reports each one of which says on the cover that we are short burford capital. this is very typical of chris
bogart who i feel is a dishonest person that was a high. we are still short burford >> are you still short burford capital stock and have you reduced your short position? >> we're still short burford capital stock. when we traded in you can see their publicly available records in the eu that show we had a peak risk position that because we have a small fund which limited amount of capital we could not hold we traded a bit ahead ofthe uk elections because we didn't want to try to figure out how to hedge the beta of that election. we have been short this company consistently and it's been an aggressive short position that's
been meaningful. >> i want to go to couple of things you said about this company and try to get to the heart of your claims about the economy. you say burford liquidity is ris risky, it's a perfect storm and governance structure are laughing inducing. you can pick up on those comments in a moment i want to understand exactly what it is that you find fault with burford and its accounting. they have overvalued the assets creating an incorrect financial picture for investors. have i got that loosely right?
>> the key point being under accounting rules there's no market you can look at and say this is what it's worth. they get to determine their own marks. that's fine if they were paid on cash the company first went public it was a closed end fund and chris did not have equity in that fund that created the incentive to juice the earnings you talked about how it's such a great deal at a pe of six when reality this should trade on price to book but price to nonmarked up book. he's made about $75 million, at least sell stock on the back of what we think just this big
stock promotion and i suspect that he or another insider took out margin loans because when you look at how the stock dropped in the wake of our initial report, down 70% in two day, that looked like that was a margin loan just blow out there somewhere and so it's quite possible that he's taken a lot more money off the table this guy has been running stock promotion and he pocketed a lot of money on the back of it >> let me go to two things as we wrap this up one of your critiques was his spouse, the ceo spouse was the cfo. i'm told that no longer the case and that may have been in response to your criticisms of that practice. do you believe this is a fraud lents company? >> i think these people are lawyers, they are very clever. i think it's possible they have gone just up to the line
legally. that's the beauty of running a stock promotion with level three accounting unless i can prove that was in your head is you knew the -- i don't have a case. one thing that's really important to talk about is this peterson claim that's why he was on your show the other day is because i brought up questions on twitter about who the buyers and the peterson claim were. i questioned whether the company which manages funds that are off its own balance sheet where the company moved part of the peterson claim from its own balance sheet to an outside fund balance street and reported a gain on that chris didn't talk about that he's not really -- he's not really willing to have that
conversation that is a serious issue because it really calls into question the proceeds that burford received on the peterson claim along with another question that nobody has posed. >> thank you for your time in triping to explain your position on it. we appreciate it >> power lunch continues after this
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let's bring in kayla to explain these numbers a bit more you have some insight. >> the total $200 billion in purchases that would take place over a two-year period but here is how the administration gets to that 40 to 50 billion dollar number on ag they are using the baseline of $24 billion from 2017. that was the level of purchases china made that they are assuming that china will continue to buy at that level. they are also today announcing an additional $16 billion a year for the next two years in additional purchases then they said china will make its best efforts to buy an additional 5 to 10 billion dollars per year you have in that equation right there not only $40 billion in total purchases per year for the next two years but also if you do the math of the 16 billion dollar for two years, that's 32 billion plus five to ten billion in daadditional purchases then o get over $40 billion total
spread over that two year period it's a little murky but they are still assuming that china will not only hit that $24 billion for 2017 but also do 16 or $20 billion on top of that >> th >> i asisume these products include soybeans among other things >> they will be releasing a specific list of some of these products while not the specific amount they will be purchasing in each of those products. we expect that information in short order. >> the 40 billion is not a fresh new 40 billion it is $16 billion of additional purchases on top of the 24 billion that they were buying back in a baseline year of 2017. >> or that they would have bought in a baseline scenario without a trade war going on >> without a trade war it's an additional 16 billion
that gets you to 40 2$24, you pl have expected them to buy anyway >> and then there's that $5 to $10 billion cushion that gets you to the president's number. he wanted $50 billion a year china didn't quite know that they could get there, so they added this best efforts clause that they'll try to do t, but it's not a guarantee >> it's really an object lesson that what seems simple in trade is often very complicated. >> it never is >> kayla, thanks >> all right, coming up, are billionaires safe from billionaire mike bloomberg and his expected tax plan? we've got those details right after this break
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michael bloomberg plans to raise taxes on himself, even though his tax plan hasn't been released, he's expected to increase taxes on the wealthy. robert frank joins us now with more hi, robert >> hi, tyler one thing is certain under mayor mike's upcoming tax plan, and that is the rich will probably pay more now, campaign sources telling me that bloomberg will make the progressive tax system even more progressive and focus on what he calls the three pillars of the tax code that's the top income tax rate, the capital gains tax, and the estate tax now, rates and details will be released in the coming months, but to help those at the bottom,
he plans to increase the earned income tax credit and increase the child tax credit one tax he is not going to consider would be a wealth tax >> well, a wealth tax has been tried a number of countries. i think france really the last time and it just doesn't work >> now, on the corporate tax side, bloomberg was actually supportive of the trump tax cut on businesses, but said the accompanying tax reductions for the wealthy was probably a mistake. now, when it comes to tax policy overall, bloomberg likes to point to his success raising taxes in new york city when he was mayor. he increased property taxes in 2002 then he raised the top income tax rate and then he raised sales taxes, all of which helped turn a multi-billion dollar deficit in new york city into a surplus. something we could probably use on a federal level guys, back to you. >> robert, the response so far to michael bloomberg's tax plan? i guess a bit more measured in comparison to elizabeth warren's wealth tax
>> well, again, he hasn't released the plan yet, so we'll see when he actually comes out -- these are sort of dribs and drabs we're getting exclusively. when he releases the plan, i suspect we'll get a much more heated response from the more sort of wealth tax democrats, as well as maybe some of the moderates like biden so we'll see >> all right, frank, thank you so much for joining us >> thank you >> check, please! is next on "power lunch." ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ don't get mad. get e*trade, dawg.
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all right. welcome back to "power lunch." take a look at live nation the stock is falling as much as 4% on reports that the justice department is preparing legal action against the company for its ticketing tactics. the d sorksoj allowed the mergef live nation and ticket master back in 2010, but according to this report, it believes it violated a merger settlement by trying to coerce concert venues into using ticket master we have reached out to both live nation and the doj for comment, but right now, all we've got is the comment of the stock market, this is down $2.07, it's 6737 on live nation. well, it was an interesting hour >> yeah, in the last hour, we've heard from larry kudlow, the director of the national economic counsel he said that the phase i deal is tremendous and that 2020 will be a strong economic year he said the phase i deal, tyler, will be signed in the next few weeks, to which i asked, why not
now if a deal has been agreed upon between the united states and china. he said it's a process there are clerical things that need to take place >> and they have to translate, and the market reaction basically flat, i guess, because, most people expected that some sort of settlement like this would get done ahead of those scheduled sunday tariffs. >> thanks for watching power lynch. >> and the "closing bell" with more starts right now. >> it does, indeed welcome to the "closing bell," everyone i'm wifflfred frost. i'm at the caterpillar stock it's down, we will discuss that coming up. the broader markets, as tyler just said, up just slightly with 59 minutes left to go. that means we're on track for a record close once again. >> and i'm contessa brewer in for sara eisen let's take a look at what's driving that action. trade, the main driver, as wilf mentioned. stocks rallied to new records earlier, but have come back down to earth as we learned t