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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  December 16, 2019 12:00pm-1:00pm EST

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protect the consumer will they exist at all don't know >> yeah. meantime, markets at record highs, again as we finish out the last two weeks of the year in terms of trading. kind of amazing. >> all right, two weeks from tomorrow, ten year getting, once again, close to 19 let's get to the judge and the half carl, thanks so much i'm scott wapner the final two weeks of trading are under way. is your money cleared for takeoff? it is 12:00 noon and this is the "halftime report." the road to record highs the stocks that should be on your buy list headed into year end and beyond boeing getting clipped growing concerns about the production of 737 max jets what's next for the stock? financials hitting record highs. one of the best performers this year and a bullish new call on goldman and a number of other names. it's our call of the day the investment committee is
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ready to go. "halftime report" starts right now. welcome. good to have you with us on this monday our investment committee at the table today. let's begin, where else, the markets. all three of the major averages are higher dow would be even stronger if not for the boeing drag. but with several major obstacles out of the way, is a melt up now in the cards that's how i look at this, josh. you go down the list and say, all right. you have this trade. tens tensions are eased for the moment uk elections in the rear view and the fear of maybe missing out and performance chase over two weeks. >> yeah. >> all is good in the market world. >> this is one of the interesting moments. they don't happen all the time where it almost doesn't matter what you own you could own value and growth and making money in either one they're still below the old 18
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highs but they're on their way the banks have just broken above the '07 highs. all the mega cap banks look incredible tech is up 48% year to date and now you have europe up 21% year to date going almost vertical this morning i put a chart up this morning for my friend john at baycrest europe is coming out of a 20-year base has done absolutely nothing in two decades on price alone and the stock 600. now you have those stocks working. so, you know, people always say, be selective or people say let's take a little less risk this year volatility is down 40% on the year if you bet on almost everything else from bonds to stocks, you made a lot of money. what you're seeing right now, scott, the end result of that. people who have trailed the market and people have been cautious they're looking for something that hasn't done anything yet. the best evidence of that even energy energy right now is pushing. i've been talking about
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halliburton on the desk for the last few weeks pretty obvious break out there when you have energy now making its move at the tail end of the year, you know exactly what's happening. it's catch up and people looking for the thing they'll look less stupid for buying now. >> brin, you have all three of the majors hitting high. the notes are passed around. bank of america, market prime for a melt up in q1 and brext and trade. the risks have receded is that how we should all view where we are >> i think it's really important for investors to take a step back and view this time last year in the fourth quarter the s&p was down close to 20%. peak to trough everyone was worried about the fed raising rates too much and then fast forward 12 months and to josh's point, pretty much all markets are up double digits tech up to josh, 45% the dow and s&p up plus 25 so, i think it's really important to remember as
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investors are thinking about 2020 is time in and not timing the market is the key to enjoy good returns people that read too much into this time last year, just missed a wonderful year in years like this, you have to earn these years i think that the note that we're going into a good first quarter, i don't think that's much of a stretch. if you continue to have this positive momentum and look at all the fed is doing the fed stepped back into the market in september of this year in the repo market and the ecb is continuing to increase their balance sheet. as long as the fed and ecb are accommodative, i think the markets have room to run >> i'll be surprised if this doesn't continue for the final two weeks. wouldn't you >> it's going to continue. >> just nothing in the way that you can see. surely something could happen that you don't foresee but all of the hurdles seemingly are out of the way >> i think what is important is how are we positioned going into earnings in the middle of january and i had, to your
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point, i can't see the markets will not be priced accordingly for further upside i think it's about sentiment shifting and momentum here over the last three months and not what about is priced in. we talked on friday and i felt as though brexit was more of an investment opportunity than the u.s. and china coming to some form of a resolution on phase one. it presented for you the optionality to look at europe, once again specifically you goeto the united kingdom the etf surrounding the united kingdom. i'll offer that, again ticker symbol deo another place we want to go in europe. what is not priced in right now in the strong sentiment and momentum shift that we've seen in the last three months exposure to european equities and ta little sentiment left. >> bank of america calls what we have in front of us a front
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loaded new year because of the things we just talked about. you'll get a carry over into the early part of 2020 when there aren't many risks in front of you. the majority of the risks come at you as the year progresses. >> you bet >> as we get closer to the election >> other issues that remain unsettled. that's fair? >> true. very fair. what is absent right now friday was, of course, we saw a lot of buying. outright buying. today we're seeing a lack of sellers. so, we can, you know, lift up through that, scott, easier, because there just aren't folks willing to say, yeah, let me pay my 20% or more on these gains that i've got right now, no. they're basically saying if you want them, you have to pay a lot more look at apple. new all-time high. burst through that to the upside pay pal. beautiful move to the upside to joe's point and bryn's about energy southwest energy neighbors, range resources.
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these are all up, i think, 10% today across the board some of that is the chase for performance. and some of it is because, you know, when you're looking around, you're saying, boy, if crude can hang in between 55 and 65, these are going to perform for me next year and i think a lot of people are getting early on that, scott i don't mean too early they're doing the oklahoma sooner they're getting in there before the money from the iras and 401(k)s comes flying in as it is expected to do virtually every year >> apple is up 75% this year >> apple is at 280 >> scott, you and i have been doing this show since 2011 easy money already made in apple. this was the easiest money this year, in particular. there was almost no volatility in the stock handful of downgrades that maybe knocked it off 1%, 2%. this epitomizes what 2019 felt like this name. this is the biggest stock on
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earth had one of the biggest gains in the s&p just remarkable. >> you had that moment >> sub 150 >> listen -- >> like ten minutes. >> apple greeted 2019 in a very negative way let's not forget that. when they announced that they were not going to be offering guidance any more and the stock fell precipitously i think you're correct apple is indicative of 2019, but indicative in that way because of positioning think of how the positioning was coming off of q4 and apple i think there was a swell of bearishness that was created around apple going into january. apple fundamentally this year, what did it really do? not very much. >> so, is a move like this justified and is tech too expensive? >> i don't think google has done much fundamentally >> maybe not enough to live up to >> the airpods they're going to sell 200 million pairs of airpods at a 35% profit margin is, a, number
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one. b, number two, the launch of the 11, which has been a success and it's not a given that every time they launch a new phone it is going to work some of them didn't. and then the ability to introduce lower cost models in emerging markets and other parts of the world that everyone said apple is not going to sell a lower price phone and they won't be able to compete or whatever of course they did >> all of your points are very well taken, of course. do those equal 75% >> wait a second, check the box on all of those. did they have significant revenue growth did they have earnings growth like they didn't have in prior years? >> that is generally what the market is modeling they had like the market multiple expansion and that is a unique circumstance that we experienced the last year. >> is tech now too expensive the nasdaq showed up 34% year to date >> the ones you want to focus on the ones that we're looking at, scott. we continue to like apple and anybody exposed to 5g.
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it's another reason i think you have an absence of sellers here. again, not just the chase for performance. it is that the sellers just aren't there and everybody knows the isis going to be the biggest thing since apple first introduced an iphone when they introduced the 5g phones that just won't be apple by the way. if you want to trade wawa and be over there and if you want to trade samsung. >> especially when it comes to things like the chips. >> the smh has had a fabulous year >> that's to your point, has tech run too far i mean, just to close the loop on apple i think apple went from a 16 p/e to 21. that is multiple expansion but that's still very inexpensive. there's great names like microsoft. apple, once again, if you get good, positive sentiment continued. apple's multiple can continue to
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expand because it's probably still underowned because they're doing stock buybacks and less shares out there i think in the semi conductor space. a name, i don't own it, but looking at it like a corvo, it is a great company you have to figure out what is built in to 5g >> look at the technology s&p top performers i believe the top three, lam research, amd -- >> sky works is up 70. corvo is up 92 >> amd is up 122 so, technology and communication services, guess what, right back in terms of waiting of the s&p to where we thought it was going to be exactly a third of the entire s&p so, tell me in 2020 where that is going and i'll tell you where the s&p is going >> lost in the conversation about the microsofts and the apples, which are now, obviously, so important to the indices that we quote this index
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is up this and that is up this other stocks have had good new moves, too this is where the weights are. lost in this conversation even without multiple expansion and without a ton of revenue and earnings growth. microsoft, apple, two of the most profitable in history 20 and 30 years after being founded and they can continue to retire shares, shrink the flow so, even if you don't get a lot of growth or a lot of multiple expansion, the stocks can still work their way higher just purely based on how much cash they're generating and how much they are returning to shareholders i think people underestimated the role of that sort of thing specifically in the tech sector. tech dividends ten years ago when this bull market began, you would have laughed at me tech and dividend were not a thing outside of ibm that completely changed. >> even with the run we show 46.5%. there is bank of america today hunting for value in semis and
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they're looking at intel and broad com. intel up by 24% year to date still called a value tech compared to what some of the other names have done. >> i think you go to texas instruments. that's where you'll find the value opportunity. to josh's comments on apple and microsoft. you can comply the same commentary to amazon what has happened to amazon in 2019 it is no different in terms of its profit model, in terms of its ability to have margins. >> if at the beginning of the year i would have told you nasdaq is going to be up 33% s&p is going to go 28 or thereabouts and maybe more and amazon is going to be a laggard of the market, the manner in which it was >> not returning capital to shareholders >> would we have been surprised? >> yes and by the way, when we look back on this year, speaking of amazon, the isis t this is the competitors got their stuff
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together when you think about the biggest performing names in the s&p being companies head to head with amazon and two years ago we thought they were dead or in trouble. >> best buy. >> best buy, walmart these stocks are up 50%, 70%, 90%. not that they're hurting amazon but alternatives for investors who want -- >> an amazing year in the market and amazon is only up 17%. >> i think owning a microsoft and a walmart is going to be a better return than owning amazon the microsoft contract with jedi is huge. >> you get cloud and you get the retail >> right, exactly. i would rather own those two together going forward and i think with amazon, i don't think it is priced in the stock but a narrative out there that they continue to copy products from folks and i just think it puts pressure on the name and i think owning different names like a walmart or target gives you optionality than having this bundled solution inside of amazon. >> scott, take a look syna
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this one, of course, had that big pop on friday. i think what a lot of folks might not have focused on, yeah, they know it is a tech stock and they're saying broadcom or avago and some of the misses that were there and perhaps some of the move by apple away from some of those products might be good for synaptics. sure could be. look at the valuation? $2.1 billion stock, i think, something like that. last time i checked beats was 3 million. so, when you see a stock moving like this and there are a lot of these. this is not up 70% on the year. it's up almost like amazon i think those are going to be stocks, especially those under 5 billion that people are looking at in 2020. >> continue on the stock plays and then we'll finish this conversation with a note from a friend of the show that is going to have you talking.
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i'm sure of that we'll tease that ahead we'll get to that. 11 stocks for 2020 from bank of america today. disney, carmax, tyson foods, exxon mobile, goes to some of the energy plays citigroup, intel, kimco, densply and american electric power. big plays into 2020. it's a stock from each sector. >> right >> so, let's go sector hunting >> quality plays obviously, i own disney. the characteristics i like about all these names. number one, you can identify them as what i like to call quality momentum that means when you look at their price, it's moving higher and they also have fundamental metrics that you can define them as quality i also think what is important in 2020 is within your portfolio an understanding that at some point you'll have to deal with the unique circumstance of volatility we had a deal with in 2019 you want to be in names like
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these names that you're able to end endure and withstand that volatility some of the high-flying semi names i don't know if you'll endure that type of volatility when they have exposure pushing above 17. >> core holdings for a minimum of the next year and they think you're going to do well in these. i know there is belief in disney on the desk because the ownership says so. what about exxon mobile. let's take exxon mobile. >> i'll say that i mean, to me, exxon is an obvious name to choose we don't own it. we would rather play, what we call the pipelines like a kinder morgan or a targa or a viper energy, which actually they take a cut off the top line and they own anchorage and they have really nice dividends and they're going to, like a viper energy isn't going to be susceptible to the price of oil because they're taking it off
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the top line we would rather own the smaller names than an exxon or a bp. we think that gives us more upside and a better dividend >> josh, take this list on not including disney i know where the view is on disney take citi or any of the other names. >> thinking back on this year, disney is one of the few ideas that the desk universally loved early in the year, got involved with i think we as a show did a really good job on that name can't say that for every name. i think we covered that to death. i think tyson is really inest thering. this is a stock that broke out in 2016 and just kept on going it is said to be historically a commodity producer poultry is one of their biggest lines of business. but they're feeding the world and this is 13 times forward earnings which maybe is not cheap historically for tyson, but is definitely cheap relative to the overall s&p, which is selling for a forward earnings multiple of 19.4
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so, definitely a lower valued name, but it's got a chart that looks incredible definitely peeked my interest and i want to look and see what is dpoeg on here >> what about citi, what about citigroup. let me go to doc first >> i would say that it's a great list but i'll take u.s. bank over citi every day of the week and take chevron over exxon every day of the week. a, we had unusual activity in u.s. bank corps and chevron. i think exxon mobile is not as attractive to me and these guys have just done this deal and i think this is going to be a big deal for chevron they've already taken that 10 or $11 billion write off and the stock was still up a couple bucks the day after they did that last week so, i like this one a lot, if
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i'm in the energy. i like bryn's picks a lot more but if you want to be on things that are on this list. >> what about raytheon >> raytheon, so so on that one. under performed the last three years. if there is going to be a little bit more of the rest of the world healing there, that is where you want to go back to citi, this is where is the rest of the world is going to recover is important in 2020. if that's the case, i have been in jpmorgan. why? i want the u.s. oriented exposure so, citi is 80% international exposure and 20% in the u.s. jpmorgan is 77% in the united states so, tell me in 2020 which is going to begin to perform better i think that is really important in the conversation moving forward. so, better outside the u.s. and west rock is going to work
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>> so, let's kick around a name not on this list, but a name in the news and then get to the note that i'm talking about to finish this. bring it full circle boeing what do we do with boeing on the news today of, you know, "wall street journal" reporting they're weighing, halting or cutting production of the max. >> we had owned it earlier this year we had owned it and sold calls against it and we bought it earlier in the summer and then when gary kelly came out and said we don't know -- >> their options or taking a look around. >> gary kelly said we thought this was going to be nine weeks not nine months and that was months ago when he said that we exited the position around 350 because there were more unknowns we don't know when it will get fixed. we moved the position. i do think that there is that unknown because we dough xwoent when it will come back online. you can't switch to go to airbus, right?
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it's not that simple to do that. boeing will come back online and long term, you know, there will be a proper entry point, but whether that's at 329 or 300, i think that's where the market is trying to rationalize right now. we would still be stepping back from it and wouldn't be entering at this point. >> what about the rest of the desk at 329? >> you don't have to have a view on this name is where i've been all year with this i haven't spent any time with it i would say that this is probably the single most predicate reason for why the dow has not hit 30,000 yet this is a big share price. the dow is price weighted. this thing punches above its weight class where it should in the dow. i think that's why we're not wearing this hat this stock has been awful. >> as we said at the very top, much stronger. >> 440 >> much stronger day in the dow and probably wasn't doing what it was doing today >> a lot of the decision to get in was technicals.
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oddly enough, technicals will guide you here on boeing the break above the 200-day moving average i felt that was a reason to get in it failed. i got out of the position quickly based on technicals. i think that saved me. technicals have worked here. the thing that is discouraging on a fundamental basis this morning is hearing the potential about the dividend that's a challenge now, does that actually happen where the dividend gets suspended? i don't know i think they need about $4 billion to fund it and they have that, but do they go ahead and suspend the dividend that would be incredibly problematic. >> in the 2 or 2 1/2 minutes we have left. we started broad and went lower and talked about individual stocks and let's bring it all the way around i want to hit this note from morgan stanley's mike wilson the guy who called it right and then i think was slow to realize that there were other forces at work that were going to drive stocks higher and probably missed a good bit of that
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despite some of the nuance bull case, bear case, whatever. a trifecta of positive catalysts. positive trifecta and keep us bullish through the year end those being what we talked about. dovish, fed. u.s./china trade deal and pushing risk assets higher that's for the next couple of weeks. they also talk about a set up for portfolio recommendations. overweight the rest of the world. okay world equities mainly japan and europe versus the u.s. within the u.s. their overweight value versus growth, but with a barbell of cyclicals and defe e defenses >> i'll start. i think it was a good piece. i do think from a waiting standpoint, international has been really inexpensive and cheaper than the u.s. but cheaper for a reason we don't own international in the portfolio. we moved out of it in summer of '18 and moved into u.s. value
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because we felt that u.s. value was a better way for us to play value than international and i still, i am still not sure i see where we're going to get earnings growth out of europe. you know, germany is apparently doing another round of auto layoffs in the first quarter so, we would want to wait until we see positive catalysts besides the dollar or just momentum but we would move back into international. >> i know you have thoughts on this is this the moment to do what mike wilson says and overweight the rest of the world versus the u.s. because of the lagging performance? >> so, we've been doing that and i don't know if this is the absolute best moment if you're a trader, it might be. i'm speaking usually on the show from an investor's standpoint. we believe in diversification and we don't waver with which way the wind blows at the moment, they are the most hated and the least reason to own them and they would probably be selling for the lowest mul
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multiple europe is up 21% this year europe has done absolutely nothing in a couple of years it's been very frustrate every time it seems to want to break out above the 2000 high, 2007 high. but it's breaking through right now and it will take a couple of weeks before you could say this is a true breakout, but if you're not in these names and you think it's going to be u.s. ahead of the rest of the world every year forever, history says otherwise and i think that will be the case here >> good stuff. we covered a lot of ground we'll take a quick break and lots more coming up. here is what else is on the "halftime report." financials among the top sectors of the year. a call on big banks. the investment committee is ready to debate it in our call of the day ten stock picks for 2020 we'll see if our desk agrees with their game plan straight
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ahead. the "halftime report" is back in two minutes. at fidelity, online u.s. stocks and etfs are commission-free. and when you open a new brokerage account, your cash is automatically invested at a great rate. that's why fidelity leads the industry in value while our competition continues to talk. ♪ talk, talk doprevagen is the number oneild mempharmacist-recommendeding? memory support brand. you can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. prevagen. healthier brain. better life.
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welcome back financials hitting new highs today and citi is out with its top bank picks including an upgrade from goldman sachs the price target to buy $255 bryn, you own that we talk about citi on the other note but this is goldman upgraded to a buy today at citi. >>i think goldman has been an
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interesting. a great performer this year. we talked about it on the desk this year. it was below book value for multiple times this year when the stock goes under 200 it's below book value and trading between 195 to 220 and a few months ago it broke out or a few weeks ago it broke out. david solomon is the right person at the right time they consolidated their private equity groups consolidating that and they think about the management fee and incentives and they will be the number three private equity firm between blackstone and it makes it an interesting, different bank than the typical, the other bigger banks like a jpmorgan and we own it and we'll stick with it >> joe, they say they're playing for singles and talking about banks and cards. i know the card stock you like on the list of what we are talking about today, citizens
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financial group upgraded to neutral, but it was on a sell. the target there is 41 northern trust goes to neutral from sell. 110. the target regions financial were on sell they were on negative on a lot of these gets upgraded 17 bucks and u.s. b a, bancorp. >> surprise there were sell ratings. those are three strong franchises that actually have endured over the last couple years while we've seen the flattening of the yield curve. i think what's important looking forward here is understand that on a comp basis, trading revenue is going to look very strong in the coming quarter i think that's a reasonable expectation. i think it will price in well for a name like northern trust and price in well for a lot of the big banks and also brings you to goldman sachs and morgan stanley themselves i would expect the trading revenue looks good there >> all these stocks i mentioned had a fabulous year.
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goldman is up 37%. as we said, new highs. they're back at their 52-week high levels. citizens up 36 and -- >> let's look at goldman, though negative three-year return that's extraordinary in this market this stock is down 1% over three years. why? >> growth. >> well, look, it's now not getting a growth multiple whatsoever nobody thinks it will grow 9.8 times the earnings estimates. even if you think those estimates are good, the company is basically getting no credit for whati consider to be a historic transformation. they're hiring technologists and the average age of their employee has come down substantially. they are going into businesses that people have said they would never imagine goldman offering a credit card to people that, quite frankly, don't have a credit rating. offering banking services to people who don't really have a
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lot of money and they are looking at all these areas that the white shoe investment banks historically completely ignored and, so, if you're buying the stock here, you're making the bet that at some point, a, they're going to pull off this transformation and compete head to head with consumer financial giants like schwab and they're really going to do it well and, b, wall street will at some point give them credit for it. that is a good bet i would be a buyer here. i don't think you're taking a lot of risk at ten times forward earnings of them to get wall street to pay attention here $80 million market cap one of the greatest companies in the history of america and it's a company that is now positioned for the next 20 years where as three years ago, they were still positioned for the last 20 years. so, i like the story i like the valuation i like the technicals and i would be long hewrong here
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i don't know why i don't own it. >> morgan stanley is a better bet than goldman they check a lot of the same backs that josh was talking about. goldman will make a move because of what schwab and tj ameritrade has done the exact space that josh accurately is addressing there that goldman wants in to >> the difference is that goldman bought united capital for $700 million and they bought probably the most platform created and morgan has not done that yet >> but they have all the welt management and all of the order flow goldman does not have that yet >> i just got finished saying that -- >> 700 million versus what morgan stanley already has with the 30,000 -- >> let me stop you they paid $700 million >> i know. >> tens of billions of dollars
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in assets but the point is morgan stanley already gets credit for being heavy into high net worth and management >> they're where they want to be >> so, that's the point. if you think goldman is going to succeed at this. that's where the upside is morgan stanley has more from -- >> i don't agree with that >> i don't either. >> i do think, though, it's really interesting because, you know, those models are really diverging. so, before i would have felt like five, ten years ago i would say morgan stanley and goldman are competitors but their models are diverging. i think we own goldman not we don't like morgan stanley, but interesting to see the next few years what type of model works. >> josh is to me pointing out that fo that goldman is investing and if they are able to take market
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share, morgan stanley is the one that you put high on that list >> why not schwab? why wouldn't i say schwab in that space >> they're definitely going, 100%, 100%, that's true. historically, though >> theirer much bigger >> a household been able to call 1-800-goldman and what scott is picking out of what im arer saying if morgan nails this thing with the acquisition, it's a formidable competitor in the $1 million to $10 million household business which, frankly, is the bulk of the wealth management business there are nine million households with between 1 and $5 million. that is a lot of potential business and i do think it's primarily merrills and morgans to lose to goldman >> i disagree. i think the business to lose is
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td and schwab because that integration is going to take several years and a lot of frustration during the time of that integration those are big wealth managements there, too >> it's on the custody side. >> and execution >> yeah, yeah. but head to head wealth management if you're -- if you're at a wire house right now and you've been losing some of your top talent to iras and all of a sudden goldman sachs is talking to $2 million and $3 million households we had that wrapped up we had that business all to ourselves. i think goldman has more potential going forward. but we'll see. >> we'll leave it there. sue herera has the headlines for us >> i do indeed, scott, thank you so much. here's what's happening at this hour, everyone defense secretary mark esper is touring the woods of a key location in the battle of the bulge during world war ii. he is in belgium attending commemorations for the 75th
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anniversary of one of the war's bloodiest battles that sealed the defeat of nazi germany. hong kong chief executive carrie lam briefed chinese leaders on what has taken place in her city in the last 12 months speaking to reporters afterwards she feels heartened by their support. crowded and unpredictable trains and traffic jams stretching hundreds of miles have created big headaches for 12th day of strikes against pension reforms. only a handful of trains were actually in service. uber plans to double down on its investment into electric bikes and scooters it has bought jump a bike sharing service in the u.s. and since rolled out the two-wheelers internationally, mostly in european cities. the y could use some of thos right now. >> that is sue herera.
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up next, etf on the market this year. what we could expect in the year ahead. first, your sector check for the s&p on what is a pretty good day for stocks to say the least. s&p is up 28 led bhethy al care, energy and tech. halftime is back after this. the world turns to cme group. we help farmers lock in future prices, banks manage interest rate changes and airlines hedge fuel costs. all so they can manage their risks and move forward. it's simply a matter of following the signs. they all lead here. cme group - how the world advances. is that pgim, we see alpha emerging in the trendsete? driving specific sectors of outperformance. where a rising middle class powers a booming auto industry... a leap into the digital era draws youthful populations to mobile banking and e-commerce...
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welcome back to the "halftime report." i'm bob pisani which etf had the biggest impact on the market in the last ten years? that does not mean the biggest gainer but the one that surprised everyone or the most impact on the market let's get senior director of etf and kim arthur is the founding partner at main management todd, you surprised me a little bit. you think an international etf had the biggest impact on etf investing. >> very u.s. centric but iefa gives you exposure to the europe, japan, developed countries around the world for seven basis points it's now a $70 billion etf it's taken share from other products and it has really
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helped asset allocation approaches >> this is not just lower costs you're arguing americans have invested overseas more and more in the last decade and this particular etf is a bi beneficiary of that? >> a lot of great companies nestle, toyota and all companies that u.s. investors are quite familiar with. you can get that in a low-cost etf. >> you have a nod to vogel at v vanguard. >> vti, market exposure and slightly lower median cap than the s&p. you're getting a size component to it and if you look over the last decade here you've been able to get this for three basis points so, investors have been able to beat the s&p 500 for three basis points and i'm a firm believer that jack vogel did more to democratize for the average investor with exposure to ind indexes like this. >> no disagreement on that at all particularly regarding vogel here
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let's talk about surprises we might see in 2020. standout etf that you think in 2020, todd >> so, qual. it is a quality etf, again, tied to an index. blue chip companies that have strong balance sheets, strong earnings trends. we think we'll see moderate earnings growth and a strong, healthy economy and blue chip companies. >> and relatively low volatility in this, as well >> these are companies that have strong return on assets and return on equity and lower volatility and growth angle to it >> less than ten seconds you're going for microcap. >> this is iwc, it trades at the same valuation of emerging markets that people seem to love 1.6 times and 1.4% yield and when you have a move up in the pmis above 50, people love microcap >> surprising choice but a good one todd and kim, thank you for joining us more etf edge, don't go away our live online show starts at
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1:00 p.m we'll continue our 2020 look ahead and talk china with the founder of life and liberty indexes. scott, back to you >> bobby, we appreciate it barron's is out with its ten stock picks for 2020 we'll go around the desk and reveal the names we'll do it next. plus, ready to answer your questis,on pinterest, weight watchers and store capital, next
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welcome back time to answer some of your questions. first up joe, vivian in new york, dunkin' brands your thoughts and if they should spin off one of my all-time favorites. bask baskin robbins. >> what is your favorite >> mint chocolate chip >> no offense. not good ice cream >> i know it's part of your ice cream. it's not objectively good. it's cheap sugar >> can we cut this guy's mic immediately. you're so enamored -- >> it's not that great either. >> baskins robbins is better >> shake shack >> josh and i, anything with peanut butter. >> favorite flavor is arugula.
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>> anyway, dunkin' needs to focus on cold beverages and breakfast. >> i agree with both of those. >> they have to focus on breakfast. everyone has breakfast but wendy's has momentum right now. >> they have breakfast. >> they don't have breakfast in the sense of what mcdonald's has. >> sit down. >> dunkin needs to focus on breakfast. i'll repeat myself breakfast and cold beverages they own the stock >> are you saying they have to make it better >> they have to make the experience better. that's where the competition is going. dunkin has expresso but they need some cold beverages >> dunkin. >> they need to drive traffic in the afternoon. >> can you educate this man? >> he's on the same page as me >> i go to dunkin all the time. >> they sell a ton of breakfast, but it's not great >> that's my point
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they have to focus in the afternoon. you're going to dunkin in the afternoon for what >> i just regularly stop by. >> channel checks. >> they need to drive the traffic in the afternoon now, back to baskins who is buying? who is going to buy baskins robbins. >> the sundae in the helmet. >> down 8% over a month. >> did we talk about that one? >> up 50% over six months. >> do you buy more >> yeah, no, i listen -- every time it pays distribution, i automatically add to it through the magic of my brokerage account. i don't think about it do it in a tax-free account. use an ira or whatever you can do so you're not getting hit with that distribution which is ordinary income for investors.
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that's how i own reits and i hope it comes down even further. my next distribution, i'll buy even more. >> bryn, pinterest, is it a buy here >> i own it. i would wait until next quarter. fantast fantastic growth they haven't done a good job w. >> do you think weight watchers is a stock worth holding on to >> oprah winfrey thinks so 4.3% of the company for extending her brand to that and that's worth a fortune obviously, millions of shares. i would hold on to this one. >> thanks for the questions. straight ahead, ten stock picks for 2020 barron's has their new list and we'll debate them in two minutes. first, andrew ross sorkin has a look at what is coming up
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on "the exchange." >> certain issues are getting lost in translation. so, what is the deal with the u.s./china trade deal? we'll give you the latest. first, forget about breaking up big tech, regulate them like. how the nfl is tackling injuries with technology the nfl top health and safety guy is going to join us live you have to see it that and so much more on the exchange "the halftime report" back after this at fidelity, online u.s. stocks and etfs are commission-free.
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. welcome back barrons is out with its stocks for 2020, including alphabet, pfizer, vi acomb. >> we talked to a lot of investors and analysts trying to come up with some ideas which we think can beat the market. so, yeah, i it's not easy given how high priced things are right now. but i think amenity stocks are under value. >> you say there the a tilt value on the list. so you are among the believers that the value runway has some
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length to it >> i think so i think companies like berke hire hathaway ar viacom alphabet look pretty good right now. >> average dividend yield 1.8% everything has to pay a dividend to make this list? >> no, a couple stocks like alphabet don't pay dividends it doesn't ha to be. berkshire hathaway doesn't have to make the list either. >> what are you thinking, josh >> are you starting with a screen and doing qualitative conversations about these names, like if you are an investor watching at home wondering if they should get involved, the names on the list, where is the starting point >> i mean we do screens. we also talk to a lot of investors and analysts and come up with ideas which are timely and topic am and we think are attractive and offer a pretty good risk reward. >> which would you say is the one they should go for >> i think viacom/cbs, it's ticks i six times forward
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earnings >> nobody wants it. >> it has a tenth of the market cap of disney, i think ultimately it might be acquired. >> you have a provocative thought in that vain you think that apple could acquire viacom/cbs >> i don't think any time soon i think ultimately it could. i wonder how much traction apple will get with disney and netflix. i think it's a great factory it's pretty attractively priced. apple is 1.2 trillion market cap and viacom's is 25 being >> so luongo that initiates a lot of mna in the traditional media space? >> i don't think so. i think there are not many companies left to be bought. i think viacon/cbs is one of the last ones out there that is attractive that could be bought. i think it's controlled by the redstone family. i wouldn't sell it any time soon ultimately in the next year or two they realize they need scale and will take a bid from a larger xa en. >> united technologies got lamb
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basted by, your words not mean, by the actistists that weren't thrilled with the raytheon deal. you have it on your list what would you say about utx >> i think now people are saying that the deal looks pretty good. it creates a combined and attractive defense and aerospace company plus the carrier and otis thing next year so have you three pieces of paper in a year. i think all three will be leaders in their field and be pretty good. >> andrew, thanks for coming in. your final trades when halftime returns in just two minutes.
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all right, bulls are spotting unusual activity in -- >> micron. >> this is nike right here >> oh, they switched it. same thing. >> it's the same thing, yeah micron has unusual activity. december 27th expiration it's about a $2 and some odd cent play. 53 calls bought those i'll probably be in them all the way towards the end of next week. >> talk about that positive upcall >> nike december 27th expiration neither of them are this week. i bought this as well, i'll be in about a week. >> joey, best buy reported at the end of november, the momentum continues to move higher. >> josh. >> stay long goldman i might join you >> okay. brit >> microsoft, cloud gaming,
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optionality on the upside next year >> 51st% year to day >> third for december expiration, twitter, bought it during the show, options upside at the 31 strike. >> i have to say questionable fashion decisions from you lately with the sad sample bag liking this stuff. >> okay. you like those >> very nice let the games begin right now. andrew >> queue scott welcome, everybody, i'm on drew ross sorkin. here's what we got ahead today despite the lack of clarity on the phase 1 trade deal, investors are cheering as stocks hit new highs. the question, of course, will be euphoria we will debate that and so much more breaking up, yep, it is hard to do we will look at why splitting up tech companies may not be the best answer to solving anti-competitive issues. a look at the medical bill and debt crisis in america we begin right now today with the


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