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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  December 18, 2019 12:00pm-1:00pm EST

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dan niles tried to say there was f going to be bad news in semiconductors we'll get information from on thousand trade it. the question >> it's difficult at these levels here, above 52 after a couple of upgrades earlier in the week we'll look for the vote around 7:30 for now, the judge and the half. >> all right, carl, thanks so much i'm scott wapner front and center this hour, what the tech surge means for the trade in the new year ahead. several marquee names hitting all time highs it is 12:00 noon and this is the halftime report. >> the rally rolling on. what's work ng this market right now? and historic day on capitol hill lawmakers debating whether to impeach president trump. the risks facing investors nike, mcdonald's, amazon, uber and many, many more. the best stock ideas for 2020 are straight ahead this drug stock is is up almost 20% in the past two months
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and it just got a hunl buy call. we'll debate in our call of the day. halftime report starts right now. >> all right, welcome. good to have you on this wednesday. our investment committee, jon and pete, anastasia is the global strategist at jpmorgan's private bank rich, one of barren's top 100 financial advisers we begin with the late e on the markets. stocks are higher again hour the dow is barely holding on to a gain as are the major averages the nasdaq did a new record even as the house stands to impeach a sitting president for the third time in the history of this country. we'll get to d.c. in a moment, but let's begin with the surge rick, you want to take a stab at the sector that keeps marching higher 70 is a new record facebook tops 200. adobe. nvidia, lamb research, all hitting new highs. >> every investment portfolio
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has to have tech stocks it's a part of the market and it's important to have them for a lot of characteristics number one, they're generating large amounts of free cash flow. they're returning the cash flow through dividends and buybacks you have a full employment situation in the country today and as we get more labor shortage, companies are going to be adopting more technology in place of labor and to increase productivity so tech is in a lot of different sectors, whether it's cyber, lod lodgistic, software, all these areas should be part of any investor's port fofolio. >> pete, we've had this debate, growth versus value. and the nasdaq just keeps putting up numbs and these companies, the tried and true one, a lot of names that i mentioned here, whether it's facebook topping 200 apple getting a nice rise over the last many weeks and adobe and nvidia these are the stocks that you
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want to stay in into 2020? >> i think many of them are. not all that list do i absolutely love. i mean i think that's a great, when you look at nvidia, it's a different company in terms of a lot of different things, but particularly fund mamentally intel. so i own intel there's a lot of different names in the tech space that i think people have been in and continue to hold on to. apple's one of them. facebook another one intel. amd. micron technology is another one. i think there are areas of the market where you have specific areas we know where they're going. we have seen the growth. we know where they're trading on the fundamental side of things that's the key, scott. if you've got a strong company and you're in the right places and rich you were putting out some different name, i think there's all kinds of names that remain cheap there are some that are expensive that i wouldn't be adding nvidia is an example of that >> i think it's very interesting that even though value working
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over momentum even though si cyclicals are working over defensives, that tech is still continuing to work we see this in semis and software software on the one hand is a very much momentum driven sector and those valuations have run out. if you look around the world, this is all about software this is where the enterprises are spending and that's why the top lines of the software are going to continue to go up then you look at semiconductors. it's a sector up 55% year to date, so maybe you want to step away, but we're looking for revenues to go to positive in o 2020 >> doc, what kind of action are you seeing in tech >> i love the morgan stanley note, judge, about semis and basically taken them to inline morgan, on this one? morgan's made a lot of nice call us this is really late. scott, i've got a couple of
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came examples today one that might be part of the unusual activity, but there's a ton of activity in these names apple continues to work, the name we talked about yesterday netflix. tech stock, you bet. especially when people are watch ing in india and the rest of the world on their devices rather than just through televisions and so forth, judge. the connected world to netflix, it exploded higher again today so you look at the move that stock has made josh and i talked b about it on monday as well too early to say that disney plus or anything el is going to kill these guys. nothing is is going to kill netflix in the short-term. in the long-term, it will be netflix itself does it kill itself. >> what about the idea as we run through the names of the stocks as i did, as to whether tech is overpriced or too expensive by virtue of the gains these stocks
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have had everybody b's shaking their head no way >> no, i don't think so. you look at the semiconductors yes, they have rall willy ied a lot. multiples have expanded but on the idea of the revenues and average selling prices picking up when you look at the semiconductor space, there's going to be a lot of things working for semis next year because of the industry trends we're expecting better auto activity which will help semiconductors we're expecting much more speaking of phones, the we'll be able to hold a a 5g phone in our hand next year so that requires a lot more semi content for those reasons, i don't think it's too expensive >> when you look at the overall market, say it's $27 trillion in the s&p. we've got a return of capital through buybacks roughly 800 billion and dividends, 500 billion a 500% return of capital you look at the technology sector their return of capital in many cases in excess of 5% a year and the multiples roughly around
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20 times, if you hook at reets or utilities where they've gotten built up as a result of lower interest rates, they're selling at 20 times earnings >> i'm sure you're getting the question from a lot of your clients. if not all just given the stature of what you do for the kinds of clients you serve what kind of year do you think we're going to have in 2020, rich and what do you tell them? >> we look at 2020 in two halves the first is where we see continued growth of exwii theti but around the end of the year, we'll be concerned about inflation, there are two risks one is inflation and the other is the election obviously which is very, very much uncertain at this point so for the next few months, we think an accommodative fed we have phase one trade deal brexit possible turn in the global situation. we think it's positive for stocks through the next couple of months. >> say you know, first half of
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the year presents a pretty good opportunity. let's bring in tony. chief market strategist who sat down at the table. would that make sense to you top heavy if you will, 2020 in terms of market fwans? >> it's an extraordinary situation. you heard fed williams today talk b about what would make them raise rates we talk ed about this through th throughout the year. the fwis printing the money continue to tell you that they're going to print the money and not raise rates, which gives you this backdrop of the -- next year number one, they're going to keep printing the money if anything goes south. until you get a spike of inflation that with a 50-year low in the unemployment rate you haven't had yet, your not going to have them raise rates secondarily, you've got so much corporate debt being issued and at historically low rates. almost a record low in yield >> hang your, hold on for a second i want to go down to washington, the floor of the house nancy pelosi making comments right now.
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>> deciding later in the day my colleagues, this morning and every morning when we come together, members rise and pledge allegiance to the flag. every day all across america, children in school, members of the military, officials and those civically engaged also pledge allegiance to the flag. let us recall what it says i pledge allegiance to the floog flag of the united states of america and to the republic, to the republic, for which it st d stand, one nation, under god, ind divisible with liberty and justice for all. the republic for which it stands is what we are here to talk about today. a republic if we can keep it. we gather today under the dome
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of this temple of democracy to exercise one of the most solemn powers that this body can take the impeachment of the president of the united states no member regardless of party or politics comes to congress to impeach a president. but every one of us as our firs act as a member of congress stood on this historic house floor before our beautiful american flag and raised our hands in this sacred oath. i do solemnly swear that i will support and defend the constitution of the united states against all enemies, foreign and domestic so help me god for 230 years, members have taken that sacred oath, which makes us custodians of the constitution when our foundersed a new nation, they crafted a system of government like one
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never seen before. a republic starting with the sacred words starting with the words, we the people for century, americans have fought and died to defend democracy for the people, but very sadly now, our found er's vision of a republic is under threat from actions from the white house. that is why today, as speaker of the house, i solemnly and sadly open the debate on the impeachment of the president of the united states. if we do not act now, we would be derelict in our duty. it is tragic that the president's reckless actions make impeachment necessary he gave us no choice what we are discussing today is the established fact that the president violated the constitution it is a matter of fact that the president is an ongoing threat to our national security and the integrity of our elections, the basis of our democracy hundreds of historians, legal scholars and formal prosecutors
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regardless of -- >> that's the speaker of the house, nancy pelosi there, officially opening what is expected to be six plus hours of debate before that expected vote sometime this evening on the impeachment of the president of the united states. eamon b, i'm reminded of this tweet i saw this morning from our friend, ben white of politico, which says the following. the house will impeach a sitting president for the third time in american history today wall street will not care even one little bit and that really su sums up the way investors have vieweded this. >> yes and does impeachment affect it and the answer the probably no. should it move the stock market? probably not presidents have talked about the economy as being a political shield but the one thing it doesn't seem to shield you from is impeachment you look at stock market performance under the president of the united states now, it's up 50% since this president was
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elected until yesterday. so this is a huge improvement in the stock market the president's been tweeting again and again look, how can they impeach me when the market is doing so well the economy is doing well. and b guess what, that number under bill clinton was 183% and it didn't protect him from being impeached in the late 1990s either ultimately, bill clinton went on to have one of the highest stock market, the highest stock market performance of any president ever in the history f of the united states after he got impeached. so the history suggests here that even if a president impeached, the market can do just fine and can do really, really well ultimately and that's what the trump administration folks are hoping going into a re-elect. that's the difference here they're looking into a re-elect scenario that bill clinton was not. bill clinton was just looking at a legacy >> yeah. we preeappreciate it. eamon javers on the north lawn of the white house the simple fact of the matter,
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steve, the president is likely not going to be convicted in the senate why the market is is not reacting any other way than to brush the whole thing off. barring some shocking surprise >> i agree so i think you've got a long runway for the market to go up if i say long runway, i think to at least march and get some clarity on who the democratic candidate is but the market's also assuming that trump is going to get re-elected so absent elizabeth warren or bernie sanders coming in, and showing great in the polls, the market's going to continue to move so what can hurt you in the market are the events we can't see, which are what always really, really hurts >> the fact of the matter is, pete, there are so many other positives to focus on. >> yes >> if you didn't have the fundamentals falling in line, i could see okay, maybe the market gets a little bit upset, but fundamentally, things seem pretty good. the fed is your friend the economy's doing pretty well.
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the trade tensions are eased for the moment that's a pretty good backdrop. >> no expectations on earnings >> and we talk about people squlenry in the actual stock market, well, which analyst do you follow in the big global thing, tony's been dead on so why wouldn't i continue to listen to what you have to say about what the directions are and you've been bullish. are you still the highest on the street i think you are in terms of target >> how do you know you're ready? all of the guys like me start checking our numbers up. >> you pointed and i want anastasia's point of view on this as well you mentioneded both of you guys at this end of the table talk about inflation as a b possible risk i just wonder if you look at rates and say the ten year, the ten year continues to creep up, if that's the stealth risk in to 2020 that not enough people are focusing on. you have rates start to go up u and in a lot of different backdrops, that would be a negative by investors. >> and i can see why you say
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that because we've had that back last year when we backed up on a ten year by 40 base us points and the market sold out but it's a very different proposition now. the first of all, the reason why the ten year would go up is because the implied growth rates would have to go up. so for example, right now, i think ten year fair values somewhere around 205 and to the extent that gdp starts to improve over and above 2%, we could see rise is that bad for the stock market no >> it's an extraordinary time in my career because the federal, for my entire career, we've been worried ant from greenspan on, what happens when rates go up with the amount of debt we have, it's unsustainable this year, that has shifted. the fed fear has shift ed from higher inflax as unsustainable because it will bring higher rates on too much debt to what if the lower rates don't work. we're in an extraordinary time of an 11-year expansion.
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50-year low on unemployment yet the best we got is 1.6%. steve liesman had the interview with williams today. he's saying we got to get it to an average of 2% how do you do that when it's an 1.6% >> the other thing i wonder about is because of all the thing up in the second half of the year, ahead is if you need to change the wi and the kinds of stocks you would look at. if you think you've got a six to seven month runway for those stocks to perform before all hell breaks loose and you get close to the election and who knows what happens in the lead up to that you know what i mean some stocks you buy, hold for a listeni longer period of time. if you knew you had six to seven months of calm, does that change the kinds of stocks you look at? >> if you're in a riskless environment, sure, you go with
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the highest beta stocks and you buy those because that's going to lead the market but i recall sitting here, i know i said last year and the year before, you're going to get all your gains in the first half of the year. that turned out to be the case i think a little inflation would be phenomenal for the market because we'd see earnings growth come back. we need for that earnings growth i think we're in a new paradigm of low inflation because of all technology come out and mediating the others because of our ability to find resources are much cheaper basis so i don't see us getting to 3%, but the question always is the pace of inflation picking up >> take a stab at this idea of the kinds of stocks that you want to play in the kind of environment that we're in. move away from the debate and inflation and go towards this
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idea that you have a potentially messy second half of 2020 and if that changes x the kind of stocks you should be looking at. >> i would say it should and the inflation conversation is part of this conversation, too. when you think about the set up for 2020, you may have higher rates. you may have steeper yield curves and i think you're going to have higher inflation we are forecasting a 50 basis point pick up into the back half of the year. if that's the case, what's the sector most correlate. it's the banks financials to your point, this is the time to look at them again and we went overweight on the second. >> i don't disagree about the banks. i think they will outperform instead of market perform which they have this year. for all the moaning about how banks haven't performeded this year they've been at the market performance level. some even better than that what i think you're going to see
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is with record low employment, look at the uniform company. these are folks getting employed right now. knock on wood none of us around the b table have to wear a uniform here on the desk, but an awful lot of the folks getting employed right now are working at companies where they do and this is a record earning report for that company and that's exactly the strong suit. they do other things, carpets in the buildings. they do a lot that's directly involved with the labor force picking up and it has and they will >> judge, if that is made clear they're going to keep rates low because of inflation which means the ten-year can go up it's stimlative to growth. so rather than give opinion, let's talk about the data. when you've come out of these two mini recessions, the 2012 and 2016 recessions driven by a slowdown in global manufacturing, financials, industrials and information technology did very well as the
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ten year yield went up the fed was on hold. the ten year rallied and that's what has correlateded to the more offensive sectors >> so i would not owe -- i'd sell that if we get in the second half. i wouldn't own adobe we get a second half because the multiple is so inflated even though it's done quite well their market position is the same it won't change. i think they're recession resistant and i think the umbrella we've had in the terms of the multiple expansion that all these companies have benefitted from starts to recede and go away. >> you need earnings to back it up if that happens. you can't survive on multiple expansion alone anymore. >> right and right now, what's behind that is the belief that so many people come out here and say we bottomed and that things are going to bet better. see 6% earnings growth >> that's driven by inflation.
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the market is averaging 18 time. all we have to do is look back at the third quarter of 2016 tlurt thid quarter of 2018 where you had more than 19 times that bir period so the idea we're super expensive and you've gotten to recede, it violates history. when you say is the time, you're k looking at how earnings turned out. on the forecast, it was a lot cheaper. right? >> clearly >> substantially cheaper so that's a big difference looking in hindsight, i think it's instructive, but you've got to imagine yourself at this point in time. >> you pick your number at the end of the year. for me, the it's 6%. 172 in earnings, which is up 6% from what it looks like this year and you put the average multiple and 19 times. >> this whole discussion is great because it's typical of what happens
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>> so the banks, they were written off as regulated ewe l utilities. then the talk was they'll never make money u in a low interest rate environment then the inverted yield curve, they'll never make money but citibank in last 12 months returned 13% of its market cap to shareholders in dividends anded buybacks wells fargo, 15% bank of america over the last four years, they're noninterest expense has gone down from 70 to 60% of revenues. so these banks are converting more transactions into electronic transactions and the banks are going to do well in an inflationary environment or regardless of what rates >> little inflation, improved growth market up. good for banks >> better lending ratio or data as well. cni loans have been trending down but if we see the pick up, we'll see those numbers do better and also housing was
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strong across the board yesterday and that should be a big help for them. >> if we look at the financials in general, scott, they have managed their way through good and bad times and everybody seems to dismiss that and if times are getting better, what you're talking about in terms of maybe there's an expansion there in terms of the interest and how much more they can get there that's just more money for the banks. so i look at these banks and still think they're cheap. depending on whatever metric you want to say, you could look at many of these various names. now some, jpmorgan, we love it, but it trades at its book value. so it's not like some of the others where they're trading in a different level. so i still think there's upside in some of these names, the bank of americas, citigroup, then there's a slower growth group like the u.s. banks and wells fargos and those types of names, but back to tech, another name we didn't mention was microsoft. they continue to show us growth.
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e we talk u about microsoft and apple. we holook at these name, are thy overvalued, not when you've got the growth the ones that are still in my opinion are those like i love sales force. but at this point in time, it's tough buy it because you look at that multiple. >> is there an asset class, which is one of those crazy years when you threw almost anything against the wall and it stuck. is there a class you wouldn't be in next year >> cash would be one of those classes. >> the other one is long-term bonds. had a phenomenal year this year. but they're up 13, 15% and there was the time to add your ratio that was the beginning of this year that's going to be the case next year i think bonds, high quality duration could lose a little
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value. i think there's two things b that can work next year. one is the multiple expansion. the other thing is earnings themselves we expect $180 on s&p 500 eps next year. by the way, consensus is lower than that. almost fell over he heard that and he literally almost fell over >> it's a good number. and consensus is not there >> going to revise your number sns. >> we're at 175. >> there's something no one's talking about. m2 growth. in the past four month, monetary
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growth at 10% year over year when you have that kind of growth plus the fed pumping into the system, you have global bags on top of that adding the liquidity. there's a real chance of getting inflation numbers. particularly the reets utilities. and one sector that no one talks about is energy. investors could put energy related names into portfolios. >> been talking about this the last few days. >> and it's been going on for about a month and a half, two months >> and in the last couple of week, they've been going more for the beta names
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this move in oil, take a look at all these various names on the beta side of things. the rigs, marathons and all the rest of them it's a huge long laundry list right now, scott and that also, i think you could own some of these majors last week, i flipped out of exxon, went into chevron for a variety of reasons not going to waste your time now. but that's because they are so efficient of the big majors, they're the most efficient >> i'm going to say good-bye to you thank you for being a part of h here. >> happy holidays to you at the desk and the viewers >> we look forward to many conversations you in 2020. that's tony dwyer. everybody's throwing out best ideas. diamondback energy world wrestling entertainment.
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company near and dear to pete. amazon molson coors mcdonald's you know it's true >> yeah, it is >> burlington. willis towers. the obvious solutions. never talked about that stock. >> burlington is overlooked by so many folks and it is tj max this is a place where people go when they're looking for a deal. the fashion they want at a much lower prigs price and they find it there so this is a middle america play this isn't necessarily early new york city. this is a middle america play and it's continued to work each of these earnings reports that these guys have been part of and obviously t.j. max is the king of that i guess to a less er extent pete if you agree, ross store, but i mean those are ones where people are still going in because they want the fashion, but they want it maybe even willing to wear last season. >> what about mcdonald's battleground for 2020. >> yep >> right >> huge turn
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they lose the ceo. it's in the news we know the story and we're not going to get into that i bet the stock got pretty overdone i thought to the upside it was trade iing at a multiple when you look at the rest of the competition. great company. we love what they're doing some of the international expansion what they're doing across the board in e commerce, everything trying to speed up the delivery of everything in terms of the drive throughs and all of that kind of thing but i think there's ore names that get thrown off the qsrs o the world where you're getting burger king, pop eye's along with tim hortons, but there are other names in the space trading better maybe valuation. >> let's pivot and talk about googen heim's list their top pick in retail especially is nike the brand means quite a bit. they have technology there in terms of what's driving it
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i think what's important in terms of margins is they are not reselling on amazon. keeping to themselves and very few companies can do that. so that's a premier brand that resonates globalry in any kind of market. >> there's a company on this list called revolve group. which you brought today. >> i've owned this for a while i plan on staying with it. i've owned this one for multiple months gotten positive from some of the analysts on the street i'll tell you what, when you say nike, my problem is that i compare that to lulu all the time for the right reasons because when you look at those two, you're in sort of the ath leisure world together now i know they aren't direct competitors, but still look at lulu with the growth they've got, the expansion b
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possibilities they've got, there's so much more to that story versus nike that i'd rather be in lulu and not be this nike because i do feel like they're stretched. >> you've gotten 83% out of date for lulu >> and they're growth continues. >> i look at these as apples and oranges. >> i know you do and a will the of people do >> if you're choosing one over the other, we can do that for purposes of this conversation. one is up 80 some odd% percent the 30 percenter doesn't have more potential upside over the next 12 months per se than the lulu, which has shone it >> i would say lulu has executed almost perfectly and i think they'll continue to do so. scott when i look at margins, growth, mens wear and e commerce, winner, winner, winner, winner versus the competition. so when i look at multiples, they're a lot closer than a lot of people think so it gives me the opportunity to say hey, look, i'm in athleisure. >> i don't disagree. i agree, they're different and
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there's room for both in any portfolio. in terms of lulu, what i like is the ceo's call reset expectations where they can now beat the must remembers then men is just growing leaps and bounds rath ethan go through each firm the firms in their list. the names are lowe's and sales force and amazon and grk e and citi these work for you selectively yes and no >> we own city >> in the retail space, we own home dee toe we like the name been coming down 15% free cash flow is roughly four and a quarter percent. they made a big cap exprogram last year which is going to have
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benefit in 20, but more important ly, you can't go and b two by fours on amazon so it's somewhat protects. >> wait until you get to prime >> i want to see it. okay i agree. to some extent, it's amazon proof. we're looking for motes and that's one where we like it. >> it's interesting, the stocks we've discussed so far, consumers are banks and we haven't talked about tech stocks into 20. so i think that semiconductors related to the key themes like artificial intelligence work and if i were to point to one thing, electric vehicles, that's a trend that's been accelerating significantly over the last couple of years. stocks have not done well because of the manufacturing recession, but looking into next year looking into industrials, i think some of these ev related
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names could work much better >> i bought micron because there was news out of asia that s samsung is going to cut production and maybe raise prices i think it's a now storay as we're seeing from the stock and the trade off, it's cheap, but not as cheap as xhod theties that xhcommodity has been derise by samsung >> finish anastasia's thought. tesla's up 60% >> all time. >> in three months >> pete, in july >> three months. >> the stock was 180 it's a double right now, scott, because we're trading 388. in tesla here. just taking the shorts to the wood shed. for any of the other issteps mr. musk has made and this is him saying i'm going to cut prices up to 20% in china. you know what that did for
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apple? boom, same thing happened here in tesla >> you've also had audi come out and say wait, we're not working on this electric cars, so he owns the market on electric right now until further notice >> i would say in the u.s., that's true, international, not quite true although they're trying to gain market share in china and you look at china, there's a whole asia supply chain. >> sue has the headlines for us. hi, sue. >> hello, scott. hello, everybody here's what's happening at this hour we begin with the u.s. envoy to north korea meeting his japanese counterpart in tokyo in a bid to revive talks with north korea. his visit to asia comes after senior north korean officials recently stated that denuclearization is off the table. demonstrations continued in new delhi to prothe test india's supreme court's decision to postpone hearing a challenge to a new citizenship law. that law provides a path to sipt
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senneship for nonmuslim migrants and has ignited protests announcing they signed a deal creating the fourth largest company. the new group will be led by the cost cutting ceo are chrysler's chairman becoming the new chairman of the company. and burger king is offering travelers with a delayed flight a free impossible whopper which features a meatless patty. from now through december 30th, travelers at any u.s. airport can enter their delayed flight info into burger king's app and receive a coupon for the free whopper. you're up to tadate back to you. >> straight ahead, the etfs that should be on your radar in 2020. but first, let's check the s&p sectors, real estate and energy. they're leading the way on a somewhat muted day for the s&p at least at this moment. eyes on d.c., the impeachment vote looming this evening. s&p is up one and a third.
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halftime report is back after th is (brakes screeching) okay. so, today you're going to leave your phone with a guy named flip. (ding) but it's more than your phone, it's your business, your customer data, your sales figures. and who can forget, those happy hour selfies? not flip. (honking, gasping) this isn't working. introducing samsung business security solutions, with knox software. with the galaxy note10, you can remotely wipe data or lock phones, so your business is secure even when your phone isn't. samsung business solutions.
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welcome back i'm bob pi sachblt time now for
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etf edge all week, we've been talking about the etfs that mattered most in 2019 and the ones that could break out in 2020 and which one had the biggest impact on the decade. jay jacobs with me, research and strategy at global x john dobby, founder and chief investment officer of astoria port foal low advisers technology etfs, the most important influence in 2010 to 2020 >> the performance story was there. it was an incredible bull market think about the impact that technology has changed over the last ten years we didn't have mobile social media, e commerce. so many technologies have come out and that's reflected in t excitement around technology john, a little bit of f a surprise from you. minimum volatility usmv, that was my choice for this year, but why was it most important movement so far in the
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last ten years >> if you look at the most etfs that have gathered over the last ten years, those are low cost, pure beta. right? like your standard wealth management solutions, so usmb is largest to gatt ir outside of that course. it hedges the downside risk. it has high er risk adjustment returns. >> you're buying pepsi and coke and a lot of stuff, you tillties, stuff that's low vol, but you don't capture upside you're two of the mirror opposites. >> q4 of last year, it was down seven. >> breakout for 2020 the one that's really going to breakout infrastructure and there's an etf for that. >> i think it's going to be pave 2020 is an election year so much focus on policy. the only policy that democrats and republicans agree on is
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infrastructure john, emerging markets >> we look the broad-based emerging markets if rung about what's hurt emerging market, a stronger dollar, fed doing qt fed hiking rates last year so a will the of those cat hles are sub seed spy is up 15 eem only up seven. >> and the weak dollar that really plays into this thanks very much. etf edge fan, sit tight. our last live online show of the year starts at 12:45 eastern time today we'll continue our 2020 look ahead and get a take on china's etf market with brendan ahern of crane shares back in 30 seconds with the unusual tityacvi
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u.s. bank corps shares having their best year in a decade they see those gains continuing into the year. jon and pete have that and more in unusual activity. >> usb you're exact lly right nois run there for this one. not just market performance. but with the stock down 1.5%
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today, they came in and said let's buy youp cyd calls which ones they're buying january 6050 calls. little bit of a pop to the upside maybe we get a fast melt up. i bought these i'll be in these probably two weeks. second one, micron earnings tonight after the bell. what happened? somebodied in and bought 9500 o the out of the money calls november rather december 67 calls. that's a bit of a jump i'm with with them it's a 60 cent shot or something like that. probably l be in these through friday i'm going to ride them through the earnings tonight quick update on mellco >> weiss says it wasn't him. >> it wasn't u >> weiss or teper. >> it could have been teper. >> not until position. >> all right >> also, melco mlco talked about it last thursday.
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president xi in ma cow talking about how they're going to basically continue this trend of positive growth there and shares are up today these options bang over 100% >> all right, scott, got two of them real quick. big lots we've got some buyers in here. now they're expecting to see this stock maybe regain where it was back here because they're going up to january buying the january calls. trading around 35, 40 cents so i like what we're see iing there. i like that though it's a name we don't see often so this is an unusual unusual option activity we're seeing here next, i got a quick one. cree is another name that doesn't come up for us all the time, but it's a great name and we like seeing it. by the way, stock was trading below this level, a little bit below this level, but they are aggressively buying. they're buying for this week so this stock has to move these are the 47s.
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they're starting to perk themselves into the money. they bought these inexpensively. now you can see about 4,000 of these. that's just this week. so obviously by friday, either they work or they don't. now i've got one that didn't necessarily work, but i'm going to give you a quick update the stock moved to the upside. problem is as the stock moved to the upside when we first flagged this one, it's moved enough, but the problem is those options are going to be expiring this weekend. the b problem is that is we're starting to hlose time, so time decay is hitting the options, i own this stock, not the ongss. i've been selling calls against it since the tok was about 21. i'll continue to open it for a long time unless something in the story line closes because i think they're going to catch up and pass starbucks in china. >> good stuff. come back over here. the desk is ready to answer your questions on visa, mastercard and more when we come back after this
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the investment committee is answering your questions
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first up for you, pete, from randal in hawaii where we wish we were. >> don't we? little waikiki i love dukes, man. >> all right good fish sandwich is mcdermott international a good long-term investment? >> no. i own this stock so you'll see it on my disclosures but unfortunately, it's moved to the downside it's been very negative. probably going to sell it before the end of the year because i just don't see what the upside's going to be at this point in time. >> donald in nevada for you, john do you anticipate visa and mastercard moving lockstep next year >> i do. after this quarter, as we've said many times, for retailers, these guys play right off of that this is the superbowl right now. this quarter ending with the christmas shopping season. so, yes, they will trade lockstep and trade higher. >> okay. steve weiss, dan in jacksonville, florida, wants to know about skyworks. is it in a buy range
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>> yes this stock is tuned into the 5g network. they supply. they supply a lot of chips they spoke at the barkley's conference about a week and a half ago immediately, traded up 10%. >> okay. rich, earnest in new york, l 3 has lagged in the market the past three months. is it a buy here >> absolutely. we've owned l3 for several years. we like the defense sector it's the marriage of armaments and technology we continue with the stock. >> anastasia from john and aken, south carolina. >> there's three categories i would look at. first of all, networking infrastructure stocks. second of all, think about all the approximate chips that are going to have to go into the smartphone the third category is data centers. we'll have a lot more data centers embedded into the 5g network itself. >> all right thanks to all of you for the answers. we'll take a quick break we'll come back. we, of course, have final
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trades we'll kick around fedex as well as stocks plunging today we're back after this. each day our planet awakens with signs of opportunity. but with opportunity comes risk. and to manage this risk, the world turns to cme group. we help farmers lock in future prices, banks manage interest rate changes and airlines hedge fuel costs. all so they can manage their risks and move forward. it's simply a matter of following the signs. they all lead here. cme group - how the world advances.
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selfie-ing. and whatever this is. available to the public... never. smartdogs are not the answer. but geico has a simple tip. turn on "do not disturb while driving" mode. brought to you by geico. fedex tumbling over 9% today. according to our data partners, after moves at similar magnitudes, the trend continues with the stock slipping another 1.5% trading negatively 67% of the time for more, go to >> all right welcome back fedex is, right now, near the lows of the day. down more than 10% this thing's a mess. >> so i -- i was able to sell it in extended hours trading last night. as soon as the numbers hit the tape i bought the stock i said how many companies miss four times
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in a row aside from cat and ibm? and the reasons they missed were horrendous this is a disaster i think you can buy it lower >> would you even buy it lower >> everything's got a price. >> it's hard to say you can buy it lower and describe something as a disaster. >> everything's got a price. >> i agree with you. i mean, the integration of tnt, failure. >> the shot was on you you agree with -- >> with you. absolutely not -- yeah. absolutely. >> let's commemorate this event now. but no everything's got a price so if you got a new cfo there because clearly the guidance is horrendous, if you got a new ceo, then i'd buy it. >> okay. pete, give me ten seconds on it. >> i would just say the fact that ups pivoted and they actually are just mainly ground. and they got the ecommerce delivery because of amazon those are two reasons you'd want to be with them. >> final trades real quickly rich. >> lockheed martin $140 billion backlog
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returning 4% to shareholders. >> anastasia. >> bio tech stocks in the j.p. morgan health conference in january. >> okay. >> i added to baba chinese economy's doing better. >> thanks for watching "the exchange" starts now. >> thanks, scott welcome, everybody "the exchange. the world, it is watching dc as the house gets set to vote for trump's impeachment. the senate unlikely to follow suit but what will this divide mean for 2020 and this policy push which includes drug pricing, trade wars, and the potential for tax cuts 2.0 with gains of more than 50% for all the major averages since the election and record-low unemployment, will any of this matter to investors long-term? and is there a demographic threat to america's jo


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