tv Fast Money CNBC December 20, 2019 5:00pm-5:30pm EST
because uptrending markets tend not to turn on a dime in the country shendo the ways the ones going down do. worth keeping in mind if you felt smart for buying the panic, how do you feel when you have the exub rans. >> fair point. closing at record highs for all three major averages again today. that does it for "closing bell." >> "fast money" begins right now. yes it does courtney and wilf thank you very much live from the nasdaq market site over looking times square, this is "fast money" i'm brian sullivan in for melissa again. hi, tim. >> your traders tim selmer carter worth and guy adami on fast it's been a no good bad woke for boeing opinion rumbling the max could be out of service until summer we'll talk about the impact from the stock straight ahead plus ripple makes a splash the jaw dropping valuation that crypto company locked in thanks for get going. and check out the mystery chart,
sitting out the dow on the unending run but chart manafort carter worth thinks it's about to change. what is is the chart send in your guess we start with you guess to do new records. more records on wall street. stocks really in uncharted territory nearly every single day now. the s&p 500 closing out the best week since early september and fun fact, today was the biggest volume day of the year. >> stop. >> quad ruple but things can be scary at the top accounts are going up. and the question you ask yourself and us, how do i position myself as we enter the final trading days of the year and next year when guy it's not just about this year it's been a heck of a eight, nine-year run. a lot of people thinking do i need to protect myself a bit on our portfolio has done well. >> hi, brian. >> tim. >> how are you somebody sir, nice to see you.
>> i think for a long time earlier in the decade they bought protection appear they said why, it expires the market just goes up and they started selling options which cbw can talk about with the great dan nathan tonight at 5:30 is dan nathan's last appearance on "options action." i want it get it out there now. >> he is keeping options open. >> see what you did there. >> but not on "fast money. he will see you there. >> request the vix at 12, 12.5 it makes perfect sense because all the concerns i had clearly incorrectly are out there. but what has worked and we have talked about health care continuing to crush. biotech does well. retail names are doing amazing trading stocks like macy's and nordstroms and i think tim would agree. energy has quietly the last two and a half three months made a decent move higher. >> another interesting woke for central banks. we talked briefly about how the
ricks bank in sweden don't get get caught up in that. our federal reserve decides whether zero interest rate policy, nerp whatever you want to say is working. that should concern equity markets but not here except for the fact that the move in equity markets is taking positions into year end to the complete polar opposite where we were almost a year to the day. so if you look at greed and fear dks, the aaii bull-bear spread whatever you want to read. it's diameterically opposite of last year. that should concern you the same way it set up last year. no one jumping on deck 24 saying it's going up and we have a 2019 like we did. but we did >> i'm not trying to knock on macy's, not knocking on the oil and gas companies. but tim mentioned them as like leaders. do we have to worry this is a low-quality stock rally. >> it's stuff to call one stock a leader after dropping three
and four years or a sector but what we do know is that you have catch-up trades in markets. when things are high people dup double back. and these are catch-up trades morning leaders. >> do you think, steve it's because investors believe in the names? or it's hey they're down the market is riding lets buy the stocks that are cheap. >> it's how do you position yourself it was an overpositioning to be sure for trade, for the fed and they had to have the catch-up into the end of the year q1 is going to be a hell of a time to lay out the shorts again. potentially. it's depending on estimates, guidance and where all of those analyst that called for a earnings recession might ratchet up estimates too high. and then estimates fall short. >> you know, guy, i thought of you this morning. >> i'm sure you did. why was today any different than any other morning, brian. >> because i saw a chart that had guy adami written all over process showing the expansion of
frad reserve balance sheet by $3.5 trillion the last few months incredibly steep and rapid expansion of the balance sheet obviously injection of liquidity in the market. if that doesn't continue, which it can't at some point can the market continue? >> i was not here -- i believe it was wednesday but you had the great northman trader on sven and had the exact conversation. >> he is going to be right he is going to be right one day. >> well, he is right more than wrong. but that's another conversation. but i'll say this. i don't think it can continue. i mean the fact that we have -- the grown the balance sheet with the fed, the fastest in a decade, i mean at a certain point it's unsustainable or the mechanic calls them out or the market says wait a second what do you see that we don't what is your concern there clearly that's a huge catalyst in september. i don't know how long it can run. >> what are they not seeing brian? they are not seeing inflation. you can point out where inflation is in certain aspects
of the economy but the fed is not seeing inflation that's why the rate cuts were more appropriate. and now they use the balance sheet. they don't have enough ammo with cuts alone and that's why you see the balance sheet used that way now. >> but in pointing that out to the viewers we have the smartest in the world out there is that this has to be maybe not all but a part of in market run in the last 90 days. >> it is and we are none the whyser for what central banks can do next year nor are they. and you look at the last 21 sessions you can see the change in the curve, the steepness gone on, the way the long end boubsed offo important level bonds selling off enough and foreign central bank selling of u.s. treasurys. it's not panic run away. i don't think yields get away from us. but i think what we are talking about is a market that's had -- that the euphoria of central bank and the turbo charge of the last six weks or two months has
been beyond something we could have expected especially when the fed was supposed to be getting out of the way until the middle. >> but they're not getting out of the way my heart the seeing you guys is two sizes too big and i play the grinch january 30th or or december 20th and january 2nd, $ 320 being injected in the fed for the repo market is that something we need toware about? it's a broken clock right twice a day. but if everything is okay why do we do it. >> well the expression, the fix it in. you call it what you want. but they are taking measures in some form of fashion usually when you take measures something is not right. >> we don't know. >> and this is scary because if the fed don't know and has to react. >> well, they know we don't. >> the move we've had. >> too nervous in september september. maybe they overreacted we don't know they saw something in the
repo market and wanted to shoot first and figure it out. september worried. october took action. i think they might have overshot but i think they wanted to calm everything because people were worried about the repo market. >> do you remember the infamous mnuchin already he spoke to the banks and everything is finish fine what do we need to know here i feel the like the repo market is the many same way. >> i don't think we have been told the stresses within the system but, again, if you are an equity investor at this point and we talk about how sometimes the credit markets seemed to have an edge on the equity markets, telling you you had a tree ride the last two months and you have to be careful about that. >> okay, so carter worth, lets talk about the mystery chart you said the fix is in the fix x great brand. the fix we'd like to talk to you. go to the screen. >> we could stand a fall based upon this. >> lets go to the mystery chart. >> i have a chart.
of this conversation we two two versions one-ier chart of the mystery chart and one decade chart of the mystery chart. here is the one-year chart and it is a mystery chart. and lets look at next slide. here is the 10-year chart of the of the mystery chart before we figure out what it is, since all of you on the desk refer to and rely on charts on a regular basis what do you think of this 10-year chart? >> well if you throw it out -- i'm sorry, steve go ahead. >> that's a 10-year. who is that. >> pretty nice. >> that's a beautiful chart. >> that's a beautiful looking chart. lower left to upper right. >> it's an equity. i have no idea it's an equity. >> it's a stock. >> it's very relevant to what we were just talking about and it actually is the best performing sector this we can go figure with the rates moving aggressively higher. >> xlf. >> it's xlu. >> utilities. >> guess what's hanging in well,
utilities. and i think that's an important message. meaning there are parts of the market that don't buy into everything is okay message >> carter, but if utilities outperform the argument was they were outperforming because of the low-yield environment. if rates stay here i get it. do you think this tells you where bond yields go is this ultimately saying we're not getting ip flags to where the fed has to be concerned. >> i think you touched on it exactly. meaning if we really were on the cusp of something sort of aggressive to the upside in yields globally, not only in the u.s. but all the negative yields going to positive or at least close to it you would not get thiskind of action out of utilities and even frankly gold. there are parts of the sort of asset complex that are calling out the so-called notion that rates are going meaningfully higher >> carter why don't you come on back to the desk and lets trade this around. the utilities have been a spectacular play obviously guy
adami. i'm old enough to remember when utilities were place to hide if you were afraid of things you went into utilities, regulated business, slow to know the growth you just wanted the cash flow. suddenly the wealth creator. >> when conedison up on a day like today off the all-time highs but not much ridiculous valuation for that kind of company. but to carter point. con ed up a% tlt is up. listen, i'm with carter on this. i'm one of the few people thinking rates are headed lower but we'll see. >> what we have seen during periods of risk aggression utilities haven't been place to hide in a short run. carters charts are evenly you get back in the trade and there is the bottom end of a channel because because they have been defensive they are not defensive even on at least the first part worst days what i would say about other places that would count i were trade and the jury is out. but talking about transports and thinking about the pressure on the transports that comes from
fedex and even a boeing in the facts gnat transports are trying to break out even with the two headwinds. >> there is a company duke energy, up five% the rest up 20, 30, 40%. duke has a dividend yield of 1.47%. pushing the yoeld out to bring in investors it hasn't participated any reason to play the dogs of the utilities if you will. >> it's a top four in the xlu, 7% waelgting within the xlu. but i push back on that a little bit because utilities can pass on you need lights and everything they supply even when rates rise it has been defensive. i think there are a lot of things to be defensive about within the market. but i don't think you should read anything further than rates and. >> do we still buy them here, carter. >> for sure. yeah. >> look at the chart. >> and the short-term chart hasn't made a high i think you're breaking out now. the fact you're up number one sector on the week when rates
almost punched the 2%. >> anybody -- putting you on the spot. >> 87.57 in duke energy interesting. bottomed out recently. made a similar bottom six or seven months and trade against that and the agreed words of a great movie brian it was in fact the dukes. do you recall that. >> it was the dukes. >> it was the dukes. it was the dukes. >> randolph and mortimer. >> that was eddie murphy at the time. >> we are getting started on "fast money. careers may be finishing up. up next boeing hitting a headwind but the stock in holding. and it's a bit of green for the year we find out what might be in store for boeing the most important stock in the dow heading into next year and call it the ripple effect, the crypto spiking today what's behind the move and what's been a tough year aslw aays live from the nasdaq market site. much more "fast money" right after this no two patients are the same. predicting the next step for them can be challenging.
not in the decision to unground the airplane that news crossing now lets get to phil lebeau more on this and boeing in general out of chicago. >> to play off what you were talking about. there has been the theory floating around mainly the last three or four days i've heard from people emailed me and said is there any chance that boeing suspended max production so they could get the white house say, look you're hurting the gdp, hurt the economy, look, eventually these people might have to be laid off? and i heard no indication of that from people at the faa. i've gotten zero indication that there is the idea that the white house is pressuring them none at all. so this plays into that with elaine ciao saying that economic factors will have no bearing on the decision of whether or not to ground or unground the 737 max. we want to talk about how many cancellations we have seen because united was out today there is a big number for you,
brian. are you ready? 145,000. that's how many u.s. 737 max flits have been cancelled from march 13th when the march 13th when the grounding started all the way through when we expect the max to be grounded for in the spring of next year. united out today is the latest yet it's interesting with united because while american and southwest have said we are taking it off the schedule until early april. united said until june 4th that's when we plan to fly it again. when you keep score, american and southwest planning to bring it back in early april then united saying we bring it back in june there is always the chance, guys, if the plane gets recertified faster than expected necked bring it back sooner. but as of right now those are the plans. just a reminder as you look at shares of boeing production on the 737 max will be halted probably early january they don't have an exact date right now. there are a few planes in process as they work those
through and finish building those, broien. but that's when we see production halt in january. >> you wonder how they get the dates? airline say june this, april that could be in the summer and more to add to the 145,000 number for cancelled flights. phil, thank you very much. great friday all right, guying boeing down 13% this quarter at this rate it's joining three others as one much four dow stocks down on the year. >> this tragedy has been going on. >> it looks like investors are giving up on the stock. >> the tragedy happened we, october of 2018. >> yeah. >> and after that it was march of 2019. it's been going on sometime now. and boeing has been hanging on to a profit year to date now it's up about 1% or so probably going negative. i get it it's a dupe ily i get it it should be somewhat safe but i think you want to avoid it now. there are so manylayers to the story. but what it is bullish for are the airlines
i'm long spirit airlines, save you take splay of oh the market and helps the airlines there's been upgrades in the airline space as well. save is where i'm long. >> i agree with steve. the unintended consequences are more supply disciplines out of airlines but boeing has sideways for months people were wrestles with the valuation. i don't think this announcement -- of course the flits were cancelled of course that's the number. of course united runs for recover and a cya for them because they were off sides unlike delta without the exposure doesn't surprise me. >> listen, the analyst community has a 386 average price target, 60 above where the st. croix stock is now one of two things have to happen the analyst has the come out soon and downgrade or else cut the target. >> in the short term or few-year under performance notwithstanding where is this 36 months if a longer term investor i think everyone knows it's higher.
>> you're that confident. >> sure. >> okay. for the latest on boeing max grounding head over to the website, cnbc.com but here is this is tv here is what's coming up next. >> announcer: remember ripping with, the company behind the struggling cryptocurrency. you won't believe how much it's worth now. plus on "options action" why options being record run has a trader feeling cautious. the trade he puts on to protect himself. those stories and more when "fast money" returns (vo) the flock blindly falls into formation.
(vo) in every trip, there's room for more than just the business you came for. ♪ let's make the most of ♪ ♪ what we've been given whether that's getting a taste of where you are... ♪ let's get to living ♪ ...or bringing some of that flavor back home. that's room for possibility. ♪ ♪ let's get to living well welcome back to "fast money" "fast money" take a look at this. it's a big time move in xrp today. basically the parent company of
ripple the crypto shooting higher after the blockchain start-up got the eye popping valuation. kay rooney in san francisco. when they sent me the story. i said kate screwed up that can'ting billion. it's got to be million what is it. >> brian you read it right the ripple announced a $$200 million funding round today. that money is not in cryptocurrency the cash injection brings the valuation to $10 billion making it one of the most valuable private start-ups in silicon valley but a key life blood has been tanking. dpchltment rp sells it every quarter to fund the business ripple uses xrp as a bridge currency for cross border transactions xrp had sky rocketed alongside bitcoin two years ago. now down roughly 50% this year while bitcoin actually rallied 80%. ripple main business is a cross
border payment system on blockchain used to is send money around the world. is process commerce globally. >> it's a big story. kate roan if in san francisco. thank you very much. lets put the $10 billion into perspective shall we gentlemen. >> lets do it. >> big are than the market cap of bed bath and beyond, whirlpool and planet fitness does ripple belong in the $10 billion club guy. >> i don't think so. but this is not my skating rink. >> not your fort. >> not my forte. the market decides that. i tone as the -- dsh remember the movie come to america. his mama named him flay if it's worth 10 billion to them it's worth it to me does that make sense. >> where you see the valueses, listen i don't understand. somebody understands something that i don't understand or we don't understand but you see so much money thrown
in the companies and uber and all the companies having trouble. what does it tell you about the macromarket. >> it's the nature of something unknown and new. the dream can be big, right? and then at some point the child is grown and the dream is gone >> is this personal. >> you want to get on the couch. >> it's freud. >> yeah. >> but that's the nature of anything -- you can put any valuation on it. that's what people do. but one has to prove itself. things can go very badly. >> the crypto currency especially into second and third term this is 21 days this sunday, the institutional representation in this investment is important and it's actually very impressive. >> all right here we go, final trades tim seymour. >> what else is impressive su see em possibly outperform i think it's an interesting trade next year, the e m top heavy with bab. >> utilities got to be there long. >> jack time to buy this bouncing from the $58.
>> quick show went by like that. >> what's going on next. >> i'm not sure but breaking to the upside, eli lilly, brian sullivan. >> keep your hands off my stack. that's it for "fast money. i'll be back in two minutes. because "options action" is next we see you two minutes guess who just got reinstated! well, not officially. nervous? yeah. yeah me too. don't worry about it, we'll figure it out. i'll see ya in there! just ok is not ok. at&t has america's best network, now with our best plans, at our best prices, starting at $35 a line for 4 lines. new from at&t.
hello, everybody and welcome to "options action." i'm brayen sullivan in for nelcea lee we have another show on tap tonight. what is it here is what's coming up. >> the dog of dogs >> sit, stay, good viewer. boy, do we have a treat for you. the dog of the dogs of the dow woof then -- yes if you think investors are starting to bite off more than the market can chew with the high-flying stock we have an insurance policy.