tv Closing Bell CNBC December 31, 2019 3:00pm-5:00pm EST
as jackie gleason used to say, wow, that was some good booze. and i'll tell you, at 115 proof, i can't feel my lips anymore that was unbelievable! anyway, happy new year, everybody. i know wilfred frost is a rum drinker. it's in the family i don't know what contessa drinks, but you're about to find out as "closing bell" gets started right now. have a good day. >> happy new year to you, as well, bill i hope you're enjoying the rest of that bottle, as we speak. welcome to the "closing bell." the final hour of trading of the year, you can see, celebrations kicking off in dubai that is the burj khalifa the tallest building in the world, still, contessa 830 meters >> and look at the fireworks coming off of that of course, dubai has become a big international tourist destination for new year's eve, among the likes of new york city and london and hong kong and singapore. >> and it's also a big financial center but no trading going on there
right this hour, where there is still here one hour left of it. >> good to have you with us here for "closing bell. i'm contessa brewer in for sara eisen today. it has been a big year for stocks the dow, the s&p, the nasdaq all on pace to close the year higher by more than 20% we'll tell you which names have seen the biggest gains and with tech up by nearly 50% this year, we'll have an exclusive interview with tech hedge fund giant, dan niles. he'll give you a peek into his 2020 playbook. >> also, we didn't answer bill's question >> let's do it >> what is your drink? >> whatever gets put in front of me >> great answer. very good answer, indeed mine might be an old fashioned tonight. we shall see but we have to get back to the show let's take a look at what's driving the show 59 minutes left. we're down 40 points on the dow. a little bit of rebalancing as investors get ready for the new year president trump tweeting today he will sign the phase i deal with china on january 15 and consumer confidence data out this morning missed estimates
and showed a dip from november >> joining us now for the hour, keith bliss from iq capital usa, llc. it's good to see you here we are, heading into the last hour of trading for the entire decade. where do we stand? >> as you take a look at the nasdaq 100, it's up 400% for the decade tech has been the big story. looking forward, we're going to see a continuation of that into the first quarter of 2020, as trump tweeted out today, he's going to sign that phase i trade deal phase i, phase ii to the nth dreet will come quickly. and markets will slow down and glide into the election and see where we go from there >> smooth sailing from your point of view. >> i think that's what we will see in 2020. >> relatively smooth sailing for today. dow only down a tenth of 1%, well off the lows of the session. let's drill down on the key stories today. we're taking a look at fresh headlines surrounding each of the biggest business stories of the year mike santoli is kicking off with
his dashboard, looking at 2019's big gains. kayla tausche is watching trade. morgan brennan has the latest on the boeing 737 max saga. and kate rooney is covering new wrinkle in the crackdown on big tech but let's begin with mike's dashboard. hi, mike >> hello, wilf let's go through what we have for you on this final day of 2019 a kiss at the end. that is what the markets have given to investors at the end of this decade. i'll track that for you. and the cost of good times, business is good, workers earning more, but there is a cost in corporate profit margins. testing one's resolved, looking at some of the highest conviction, positive and negative calls on individual stocksed stocks at the end of this year and happy and healthy, that's a shot of investor confidence. just to capture the majority -- the vast majority of this bull market, but not the entirety of it we started down here around. 700 as a matter of fact, in march of 2009. this catches the most of it. i think the big story is the phases that we've gone in here long range-bound digestion,
after that launch off the 2009 lows, and then major uptrend another flat period, major uptrend after the election in 2016 and then again, a wider range and we've just broken out, so is this going to look like the beginning of one of these long trends again that is what a lot of kind of broad market watchers are trying to figure out. and you know, it seems like right now, the patterns are meshing for this now, obviously, with the economic cycle, the bets are off. but look at the ten-year treasury yield over that same span and what you're going to see is three of these major lows right -- timed around the same time when we had those range-bound periods. that would suggest that yields could go a good deal higher if that pattern holds i don't think that's where the consensus is the consensus, if anything, at the moment is pretty much telling you that yields are not going anywhere that's something that could be a surprise now, look at valuations. s&p 500 valuations, this is the fun part, guys we're just about where we were at the beginning of 2018 that was before the tax cut effect and you know, we're at 21 times
trailing that's where we are a little over 18 times. so earnings are probably going to have to come through, unless we're just going to be in this exuberance phase where we keep paying up for large cap stocks, simply because they are running and we have momentum that would be a 1999-type scenario not predicting it, but it's in the realm. >> one of the stories of 2019 has to be mike santoli's telestrator command line drawing. i don't want to ever say it was poor, it never was >> my long struggle in the direction of confidence is what you mean >> perhaps january 1st, 201529,9 there was a resolution to be an amazing telestrator artist >> if there was, it worked >> appreciate it >> the china trade war has been front and center for investors all year long. today, president trump revealing a new timeline for signing a phase i agreement. kayla tausche joins us from washington so kayla, what's the timeline? >> i'm sorry i don't have a telestrator to illustrate this for you, contessa, but president
trump himself announcing that january 15th is the date he will sign the phase i trade deal. in a tweet this morning, the president says high-level representatives of china will be present and that he'll go to beijing at a later date for further talks. that date puts the signing one week after congress returns from recess, facing a continued standoff between the house and senate on impeachment proceedings. yesterday, here on the "closing bell," i reported that the white house wanted to present a contrast to that side show in the words of one source, and it appears that the president with that date is doing just that guys >> kayla, thank you very much. so i didn't know this, but there's a great-looking whiskey bar there very close to the bureau i was not aware. >> everything in washington is relatively close but you can always find a good whiskey bar nearby >> there we go good to hear kayla, thank you very much for that now, boeing switching focus, will likely finish the year as one of the worst performers in the dow, following a seemingly
nev never-ending saga of the 737 max jet. morgan brennan joins us with the latest headlines on boeing >> another day, another day of headlines. the latest today, boeing reaching an agreement with turkish airlines regarding compensation for, quote, certain losses caused by grounded and undelivered 737 max aircraft turkish airlines not specifying the deal's value in its statement, but a turkish newspaper reporting it's worth $225 million turkish airlines had taken delivery of 12 jets before the grounding. it was supposed to have received another 12 since it's one of al number of airlines that have been seeking compensation from boeing earlier this month the top 737 max operator southwest says it reached a confidential agreement as well. but after a rough year, really more uncertainty ahead in 2020 got production halted. that takes effect next month, and a new ceo, dave calhoun, taking the helm as well. guys >> morgan, thank you the crackdown on big tech has been a major theme this year now uber's fighting back against
the california worker bill set to go into effect at midnight. kate rooney has that story in sfrauns. san francisco >> the gloves are coming off out here uber and postmates including two employees are suing the state of california over a controversial gig economy bill set to go into effect tomorrow. this after months of unsuccessful lobbying for a carveout to ab-5, as it's called it requires some in california's gig economy to reclassify contractors as employees uber and others could spend millions battling this, face lawsuits themselves, or ultimately change the status of their workers. that could threaten uber's path to profitability at a time when some investors are already skeptical. guys >> all right kate, thank you for that so when we look at the bottom line for especially uber and lyft uber is going to fight it in a lawsuit. lyft hasn't joined it. what's next for them in 2020 in california >> well, to be determined, right? a lot of this will drag on i look at the story and i marvel
a little bit that the drivers in the employees that are out there in the gig economy, they know the deal when they go in they have an asset it's not making money, unless you put the asset's money in now all of a sudden they're suing for benefits and other things like that i sometimes wonder what the structural agreements are between the drivers and the company, and maybe uber and lyft didn't tighten those up enough at the front end so therefore they're going to be battling this for a while. >> uber stock, of course, down significantly from the ipo price, down again today. turning to new developments in another major story this year, the drama surrounded ousted nissan chairman carlos ghosn. ghosn confirming reports that he's fled japan where he was awaiting trial accused of a number of financial crimes saying in a statement, quote, i'm now in lebanon and will no longer be held hostage by a rigged japanese justice system ghosn was prohibited from seeing his wife, carol, as he awaited trial in japan and according to media reports, carol was the mastermind behind the escape plan, a plan which reportedly involved lebanese
mercenaries posing as an orchestra and sneaking ghosn out in a musical instrument case we spoke a number of time in the past year to carol ghosn here on "closing bell" >> i'd like to speak to my husband. i mean, i miss him, dearly and i wish i could go and be with him at the hardest time of our lives and to take care of him. he really needs me, i need him, and this is just cruel and it's -- they're punishing us you know, they want to break carlos it's a way of putting more pressure on him. it doesn't make sense why i can't see my husband he's combative and he wants to prove his innocence. he knows he's innocent that's why he didn't confess to any of these allegations, even though he was in solitary confinement for 130 days >> let's bring in cnbc's phil lebeau on the news line, who has been following the story closely. phil, thanks for joining us. i guess, we just heard from his wife there, mr. ghosn's wife there, that he's combative and
he wants to profess his innocence. might we start to hear some of his side of the argument now in the coming days? >> oh, i think we'll definitely hear his side of the argument. and i don't think it's going to be a one-time telling, wilf. i think you'll hear carlos ghosn repeatedly, not only lash out at the japanese legal system, and what he's gone through over the last year and a couple of months, but you will also hear him repeatedly lay out his indicate for why the charges that were filed against him are, in his opinion, ridiculous and so i think that we will hear from him, probably starting next week and i think it will not just be a one-time, hey, here's my story. i think this is going to be something we hear from carlos ghosn repeatedly >> and if you think that he's going to speak out about, you know, what he sees as a miscarriage of justice in japan, do you think that he may also speak in detail about nissan and the company that he used to run? >> absolutely. absolutely because if you look at how this
all progressed and how it went down, it appears as though the person who replaced him as ceo, who is no longer running nissan, because allegations were filed against him, that he may have been misreporting income or hiding income, if you look at this, it appears that carlos ghosn was set up back in november of 2008 part of the issue here is that we've never gotten a full accounting from the japanese authorities exactly what he's accused of doing, in detail. nor has carlos ghosn and his attorneys, because the japanese authorities have said, look, some of this is sensitive, so we're not going to release all of these documents publicly. and that's at the heart of what carlos ghosn is saying he's saying, look, you can't charge somebody and hold them and not allow me to profess my innocence or show my innocence at some point, you have to do that and i think him being free, at least in the sense that he's in lebanon, will how him to state his case >> and phil, listen, i think
lots of people, whether he's innocent or guilty of any crime, have been shocked by being reminded or informed for the first time about some of the processes in the japanese legal system and the possibility of being in solitary confinement, for example, for so long, with no chance to speak to family members. that said, in terms of whether he's going to be able to clear his name in full or not, he has already agreed to a separate settlement with the sec, hasn't it so there's some element of wrongdoing that's already been admitted the question is whether the severity is as high as the japanese have implied. >> in that settlement with the s.e.c., carlos ghosn neither admits or denies wrongdoing. it's one of those, hey, here's a settlement, but there is a ten-year bar on assuming an officer or ceo position within a company. so, in that regard, that has played out to your question about whether or not he is able to fully get his story out and end any of
these questions about, you know, what he is entitled to or what happened, i think that largely depends on whether or not the japanese government engages, from here on out there's going to be a lot of questions in japan about how a guy under house arrest is allowed to get out of the country. and so the question is, will they answer or will the japanese government say, it's a bad situation and we're going to try not to talk about it and let it go away. >> phil, thanks, as always happy new year to you. >> happy new year, guys. still ahead here on the "closing bell," the nasdaq on pace for its biggest yearly gain since 2013 coming up, noted tech investor dan niles lays out his favorite names for the new year and the new decade plus, we're counting down the top five last chance trades of 2019 here on "closing bell" with the best performers from the time of the call through year end and as we head to break, here's the first call to make our list. >> number five, stephanie link makes a rock solid call on
blackstone >> i think there's margin upside and i think there's earnings upside and the catalyst is, on july 1st, they go into a c corp. structure and i think you're going to get many more investor swo s into the name as a rest. wll reveal the rest of the list ahead on "closing bell. ydae ydae how well i can eat and still enjoy myself all day long. i wake up every morning to see how much weight i've lost and how much better i look. myww join for free + lose 10 lbs. on us.
2019 coming to a close with strong gains for the stock market the s&p 500 on pace for its best year since 2013. but not all stocks got in on that rally some of the s&p's biggest decliners this year include retailers, macy's, gap, and "l" brands, biotech companies, abiomed and mylan. and warren buffett-backed kraft heinz. joining us is knancy tingler. great to see you today, nancy. so when they had struggled so mightily, is there a chance now that it's a good time to get in any of these stocks? >> that's always the trick they could be value traps, as i think we've kind of concluded with retail. but there are some opportunities when the bad news is already reflected in the price of the stock. and happy new year, contessa >> happy new year to you, nancy.
let's talk about which stocks you like here. are you -- what about the retailers. i mentioned macy's, gap, and "l" brands do any of those appeal to you for 2020 >> no, it's just too risky a lot of us buy what we like i shop at nordstrom, i bought nordstrom, i wrote it up to 65, wrote it back down to 45, and finally got out. there is just such a headwind against these companies. of the stocks that made the list, one of the stocks we think is interesting and should be given a good look at is occidental petroleum we had sold out of that stock. it got pummeled after the anadarko bid they've accumulated a lot of debt, but the company's yielding 7.7, 7.8%. have been growing the dividend about 10, and the deal is now in the rearview if you expect global growth to improve, that's one of the stocks i would take a close look at >> keith, i want to pivot back to some of those retailers very quickly. you were shaking your heads as
nancy was at contessa read out the potential buys from the macy's and gaps of this world. you could have said a very similar argument to target a year or so ago >> you could have. >> and clearly has pivoted so my question is, is there anymore retailers out there like walmart or target that might not be on this list, but have struggled so far and still could get themselveses into that reinvention camp >> i think if you have a retailer like a target or a walmart that has a very diversified sku inventory, if you will, across all products, hitting all things in the home, as well as clothing, grocery, and the like, then perhaps you could do that. the problem you have with "l" brands, macy's, and gap, they're clothing retailers and if you walk in any one of their stores, they slash prices all the time they're continuing to compress their margins. and they'll continue to close stores i agree with nancy i think it's too risky of a play, even though all of those stocks have been beaten up substantially. >> so which out of this list, you've got biomed, i mentioned would you go in there?
it's down 48%. >> it is one of those companies that got affected dramatically by tariffs, because as the trump administration slapped tariffs on chinese medical device manufacturers, china did the same thing and all the medical device manufacturers got thrown out together and stocks went down. ab abiomed has had pretty stellar revenue over the last few years and they have a device that's going to play into the aging of the world. it's a microheart pump and they are the market leader on that. i think abiomed, especially as the tariff situation gets cleaned out, i think that might be a good stock to take a look at >> nancy, thank you very much for joining us and hope you have a fantastic new year >> same to you thank you. still ahead, from virgin galactic's public debut, it's been a big year for space investors. and as we head to break, here's the next winner in our last chance trade countdown.
>> hi, contessa. that's right it is poised to be a groundbreaking year for space exploration, for satellites and connectivity, and for investment in the sector, as space closes in on becoming a $1 trillion economy. 2019 was another year of firsts, as spacex started deploying its satellite constellation, blue origin teamed as a prospective prime contractor and virgin galactic became first of the commercial space start-ups to go public 2020 will be the year commercial space emerges from science circles and policy meetings to become a main street and wall street story first, a new era of human space flight virgin galactic and blue origin will begin flying paying passengers to the edge of space, charges hundreds of thousands in the long-awaited advent of space tourism. and spacex and boeing will finally carry americans to orbit from soil. and then with nasa's blessing, start selling rides to private
astronauts second, more public/private partnerships as the artemis program looks to send americans back to the moon, nasa will share more risks with companies, spurring spacecraft development to lease services. and public/private partnerships will extend to the military as well, as the defense department stands up the space force to better secure the final frontier third, space bus more companies will find funding, but with hundreds now competing, more will also fail especially in crowded areas of the market like small rockets and small satellites meg constellations of satellites will be a big trend to watch in 2020 as well as spacex's one web telestat and amazon move forward with their broadband service aspirations. but those first flights of people, guys, to space, without a doubt will be the biggest milestones to start the decade and really seen as experts, as prospective catalysts for even more investment into the sector as well.
>> morgan, i couldn't agree more by the way, awesome backdrop for that shot, of course >> thanks. >> just as ec is, as well, for the headquarters for this, as well >> i guess >> but that big target for taking people into space from some of those private companies like virgin or spacex, how many room for slippage is there on the estimates that that could come early in the next decade? clearly, there's been delays and errors and mistakes in the last couple of years. >> exactly and i think safety is number one priority for any of these companies where human space flight is concerned. you already have seen slippage and for good reason. but there really is, after all of these years of talking about, all of these years of seeing tests and safety protocols leading up to this point, there really is this very strong expectation that we're going to start to see some of these flights next year. elon musk just a couple of days ago, tweeting out about the timeline for a commercial crew for spacex to bring astronauts back to the international space station. still looks like it's on track, as of right now, we'll see, to happen in the first half of next
year so it's going to be a big one in terms of some of these milestones >> morgan, thank you very much after the break, it's been a banner year for the gold bugs as the yellow metal paces for its best year since 2010 ahead, we'll speak with an expert who says the gold rally may just be getting started. plus, we've got your final last chance trade of the decade, right around the corner. but first, here's a look at the third best-performing call this year >> number three. guy adami strikes gold with a mining play. >> new mining, ladies and gentlemen, should go higher in this environment i do believe that -- listen, the fed is going to do what they're going to do. all roads turn to gold any "m" will get you done. >> it's down to the final two. we'll reveal the second-best call after the break (soft music)
time now for a cnbc news update with sue herrera. hello, sue >> hello, contessa hello, everyone. here's what's happening at this hour hundreds of hezbollah supporters continuing their protests in front of the u.s. embassy in baghdad. they set up tents outside the embassy, where they said that they intended to stage a sit-in. a department of defense official says the u.s. is planning to increase security by deploying
about 100 marines to the site. democratic presidential hope tfl elizabeth warren is warning voters that democracy hangs in the balance. the massachusetts senator delivering a new year's eve campaign speech in her home state. >> in the past 12 months, the president has become bolder with his lies and more brazen with his law breaking he has tried to squeeze foreign government to advance his own political fortunes meanwhile, the republicans in congress have turned into fawning, spineless defenders of his crimes >> huge crowds of north koreans gathering in pyongyang to countdown the new year with a fireworks display. footage from the celebrations was broadcast by state media only a few more hours to go here that's the news update this hour guys, i'll send it back downtown to you >> sue, i wanted to see a bit more of the fireworks. >> i know. i know
>> it was quite impressive the dubai ones were good as well >> they were beautiful >> not long until we get the ones london ones are always a little disappointing fireworks, actually >> i don't think so. >> i think new york does it better >> well. >> oh, well. sue, thank you see you next hour. >> see you next hour let's get over to mike for the second installment of the dashboard. hey, mike. >> some folks may learn or re-learn pretty soon, good times have a cost, and right now the cost of good times for american workers is being paid in part by companies. look at this chart a very long-term chart of corporate profit margins non-financial companies, not just public companies, going all the way back to about 1960 and this is expressed as a percentage of gdp, and it is also basically cash flow before interest and taxes and depreciation, which basically smooths out the comparisons over time so you see, we were at peak margins. bip far, record levels in the middle of this decade. and we've made a round trip. so we're still at relatively
evaluated levels, but there has been a squeeze this tracks very, very well with real labor costs that's a good thing. what is a takeaway one, most of the earnings growth from next year is meant to come from companies with more foreign revenue exposure and two, i think it also explains the preference for secular growth stocks and large cap stocks, which have more defensible profit margins. so it's a trend to watch it's not something that's very critical you can still get top line growth and meet the earnings estimates perhaps for next year. but it's something that shows that we could have -- companies had it very, very good and we're really reaping much more than they typically do from the economy. maybe that's about to change >> mike, is there usually a fairly strong correlation between margins and p\e multiples or not so much >> you know, over the very long-term, it has -- yes i would say so because since 1990, you spent more time on above-average profit margins and that's basically also because of the t industry mix that you're messaging. but that is corresponding with the levels of higher historical valuations
soyes, there is somewhat of a connection there and this obviously would test that right now, because we are at pretty rich multiples at this point. >> all right, mike, thank you for that gold climbing toward a three-month high today, gaining more than 18% this year for its best performance since 2010. for more on what's next for metals, let's bring in matthew miller, crfa research analyst. matt, great to talk to you today. let's talk a little bit about where gold is, where it could be going, and why you're so bullish on it given that generally we have a lot of people coming in here who are very optimistic about the rising global economy, the opportunities in 2020. it would seem to make gold as a safe haven rather than undesirable. yeah, yeah, it's a great question obviously in 2019, gold had a very good year, up about 16% what many investors may not know is that the gold miners actually had a very impressive year they were up a almost 40% in 2019 and this is following a year in
2018 when they also beat the market as you remember, the market was down around 6% in 2018 and gold miners were down slightly less, around 3%. and what we're looking at is the geopolitical environment there's a lot of geopolitical risks that we think investors are ignoring and we also see that the extreme level of negative interest rates on debt reaching several trillion dollars is really unprecedented. and we think that the fed in other central banks are going to remain accommodative, continue to expand the balance sheets, and this is a very good environment for gold and precious metals. >> i get that argument, matthew, but why does it take off in a meaningful way, again? clearly, it had a sort of three-month run in the middle part of the year it's sort of plateaued since then and i guess why you could say those conditions are still accommodative. they're not as much as they were in the middle part of year, when we did actually see gold prices take off >> yeah. i think it's a fair argument
and, you know, what we're looking at is the ten-year treasury real yield is around 15 basis points and the major argument against gold is that it's a noninterest-bearing security and a 15 basis point cost is very little cost in our view to hedge portfolio risk we really think that gold is the ultimate diversifier, as an uncorrelated asset class and if we look at global equity markets, we really think that it's overdue for a correction. so that's the major catalyst for gold to move significantly higher, would be a correction in the stock markets. ultimately, we think that in 2020, the average gold price will be around 1550 u.s. an ounce. and the average in 2019 was only around 1404 per ounce. that's about a 10% tailwind for -- on the revenue side for gold miners. and they're also benefiting from pretty stable operating costs, all-in sustaining costs.
the margins should be significantly higher in 2020 >> matthew, thanks so much for joining pups. >> thank you for having me happy new year up next, we'll reveal the number one last chance trade call of 2019 and as we head to break, here is the runner-up. >> number two. karen finerman sees an opportunity in united rentals. >> it's really out of favor right now. and the valuation to me is extremely compelling there's a lot to have love here. ernee'll reveal the numb o last chance trade right after the break. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ don't get mad. get e*trade, dawg.
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welcome back i'm very excited i really don't know the winner here throughout the show, we have listed the best-performing last chance trades of the year, from the time of the call into year end. and now it's time for the big reveal who will take home the last chance trophy? >> the number one last chance trade of 2019 -- josh brown bets on nvidia. >> this stock has taken a beating. this was almost a $300 name. i like it off this bounce here i am low in the position i'm long for years now and i would stay in.
>> hi, "closing bell." thank you so much for awarding me this award that i think was just made up very recently, but i'll take it, nonetheless. it's been an honor providing last chance trades to the show and i hope you'll stick with me in 2020 as we continue to roll >> there you have it josh brown takes home the trophy and now the final last chance trade of 2019, keith, 47% is what you're looking for as a return >> absolutely. i don't think i'm going to get it here in the last 18 minutes, but i'll try as you pointed out over the break, i want everybody to know, i finished in position six through ten. so we'll try again in january. anyway, my last chance trade is -- bear in mind, i look pretty short-term at the market, as you all know, and it's the uup, which is dollar bull. i think the dollar is short-term oversold here, which, by the way, is constructive for u.s. equity markets as the euro gets overbought, and i think we could see a little bit of a run in the uup. i know there's lots of
conversation and talk about the weakness of the dollar, and we may see some drawdown, but i think it's due for a bounce and typically reverts back to a mean within a trading range >> interesting thing as well going forward, discussed during the break, maybe next year we'll see some last chance trades be some sells not necessarily original sells, but take some profit if you own it it's been such an up trend this year, next year might go the other way around >> me and the others we tend to put long last chance trades on there, because they have been performing well, but you're right, might as well take some profit >> if you could come up with 41% in the final 21 minutes in the trade of the decade, that would be so impressive we would get a real trophy to hand to each other >> you and i probably wouldn't know each other, because i would be managing trillions of dollars if i could do that >> but you'd still come on "closing bell" >> of course >> up next, we have the final market zone of 2019. as we head to break, here's a check on bonds the ten-year yielding about 1.91%. it's down nearly 30% for the
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and look at that, a big turn around >> we're at session highs as we approach the cloes not quite record highs, but nonetheless, close to them cnbc senior markets commentator mike santoli is here and keith bliss from iq capital as well. as contessa said, session highs. up 0.2% or so on the s&p 500 with 12 minutes left let's kick things off with the broader markets, just a few minutes left to go there is the market performance for you. up 0.7%. mike, what's sort of bringing us up into the close? a nice little positive finish to the year >> yeah, not sure you can really explain much the last couple of days, it's as if the boat, they've cut the engines, you're just kind of bumping along the pylons, to bring it into the dock and i do think it's been mostly about trimming market breadth has been positive all day, so you've been seeing this pattern of people picking up the smaller stocks that did not lead the way and trimming back on the winners. i think that's where we are. the story of this year is pretty
much written and it's a good one. january, though, we could see a little bit of, you know, pent-up moves that have not yet happened, whether it is profit taking in some of those market cap stocks or something else >> apart from apple, which doesn't fit into that simple camp of selling the winners, it's up again. >> apple has been amazingly persistent it finds a bid every day people want to show they own it at the end of the year and momentum works until it doesn't. and it's not responding to anything macro >> keith, where are you expecting some movement in the early part of 2020 so january, february >> i do. to michael's point, a lot of the managers, a lot of the constitutional money went ahead and did their tax loss selling early. in a high market, you do that. and it appears to me, if you look at some of the overbought money, it rotated into gld park it there, see what happens, get through the end of the year, mark our books and move on i think all things being equal, you'll see the institutional money start to flow back into this market and that will continue to push stocks a little
bit higher we're not oversold on the s&p 500, anywhere near it right now. >> the s&p up right now, up 0.14%. shares of chipotle soared in 2019, shares up about 95% for the year let's get to kate rogers about what the company's ceo says about the stock's performance. >> brian niccol joined us today, telling cnbc that the company's progress in operations, including better food, quicker service, and expanded access particularly around digital have led to those big gains this year, but don't hold your breath waiting for the company to get in on the breakfast wars anytime soon >> there's no plans for us to do breakfast in 2020. i am excited about the innovation we do have planned for 2020, which will be more along the lines of continuing to move our digital systemforward as well as some menu innovation, but it's not going to be breakfast. >> that stock up 90% year-to-date it's the best performer in the restaurant space and the digital business recently hit the $1 billion mark guys, back over to you
>> so, thank you, kate, for that this is a story of really a turnaround for chipotle, and a turnaround in its digital business is really leading the way at this point. >> without a doubt, leading the way. it's hard to think of another company where the appointment of a new ceo was almost like a switch was just flipped and essentially a new strategy i think, also, the tracks were laid to some degree by the likes of domino's and starbucks, with this idea that you actually can get higher traffic and revenue per customer based on some of the use of technology. we'll see if there's another that they can follow with. >> great year for chipotle up 94%. we've got just over eight minutes left of the session, up by 30 points on the dow. baird is bullish on the internet section. josh lipton has the firm's top picks for the new year hey, josh. >> so amazon is a smart bet in 2020 that's according to the team at baird, out with a new note, highlighting amazon as their top
large cap pick amazon has gained about 23% this year, trailing names like facebook and alphabet. that relative underperformance versus megacap peers makes it attractive here. he also points the company's ongoing ecommerce. he's counting on improving margin trends beginning in q2 and calls out growth opportunities in areas like commerce, advertising, and cloud computing. sebastian is not alone here. 96% of analysts rate amazon a buy. guys, back to you. >> josh, thanks so much for that mike, to what extent, though, has this company started to have question marks about its p\e multiple because of the likes of wework >> i think there's questions about just exactly what the cost that they've taken on in their commitment to instant delivery everywhere so i do think that there's pressure on this idea that they have this effortless growth for years to come. i don't think it's really changed the overall story, but there's a little bit prediction
in that narrative than there had been before. and it's trading double digit percentages. >> i've always liked amazon and i continue to like amazon. and what's interesting, contessa, one of the things is that amazon is now reachable by every investor around the globe due to fractional shear trading. people will get in and buy the names they know. >> amazon one of those very popular last chance trades that we saw in the last few months here, as well. tesla stock moving higher today after the company said it has met its output goal at its new china plant. the shanghai-based gigafactory, which is tesla's first plant outside of the united states, delivered its first model 3s yesterday. the company says it have hit its production target of 1,000 vehicles per week. meantime, ceo elon musk tweeted last night that part of his new year's eve plans will include helping out with vehicle deliveries at their fremont
factory. >> that will be a shock when elon musk comes driving up >> but now he's tweeted it out >> a massive turnaround in terms of sentiment we've been discussing this over the last couple of days. can it be sustained or is the momentum kind of shut. >> it's about the perception and whether or not they're moving fast towards the big picture goals, whether it be china or something else it's your basic market cap company where the ceo has to go and help deliver the product there's no way you can generalize people believe, and when they believe, they believe hard and you can't call a lot of attention to the details of the financials at any given moment, good or bad. >> meantime, he also might be taking passengers to space pretty soon as well. just a typical company, as ever. five and a half minutes left to go in this, the final trading day of the decade. shares of apple up more than 80% this year. that stock the best performer in the dow. jon fortt has more on their big run and if they can hold that
number one spot next year, as well >> wilf, think back. january 2nd, apple delivered an earnings warning the stock tanked 10% the next day to $142 a share. june 3rd, the stock was at about $173, down from where it was a year earlier that's the day of the wwc note, an announcement of big updates to software to apple watch and tv, iphone, ipad, and mac. that's what started the stock's true turnaround. it's up 69% just since that day. and today, apple's p\e is over 20 rare territory for this stock. sales and profit are actually down year over year. so can apple deliver again that probably depends on whether 2020 is the big year for 5g adoption in the iphone's next product cycle. the first clues may come again at wwdc in june 2020, guys >> jon, if we were to snapshot back to the start of the year and explain why the stock has
rallied quite so much, would you say it was more of a case of the old, like the iphone cycle not being as bad as was feared then, or because the new, whether that's appletv plus or these new wearables, are doing so much better than expected >> i think it was a one-two boost. on the one hand, they did announce more than a lot of people expected, i think that started giving the stock a boost. and then when the iphone 11 actually came out, i think analysts were surprised by those initial order numbers. the sense that this phone was going to do a bit better than some had expected. normally, there's a sort of, eh, this phone isn't going to do so well attitude out there. and i think that flushed out a lot of people who are negative on it. and then you can't forget the trade issues that loomed all year, as those receded, apple, because it's got such big manufacturing in china and also business in china, did better. >> and their sales have been remarkably good, given the trade tensions in china as well. we've just recently seen those
numbers. so, keith, what do you think of apple. is this a place where you think there's still room to run? or is there going to be some pullback and a chance to get in where the prices are better? >> absolutely room to run. anybody who's bet against apple since john sculley left the ceo post has gotten taken out on the stretcher on this. and i think what's remarkable to me about apple is, just as john was alluding to with the iphone 11 just at the moment that you think that the market and consumers are saturated with their products, they will continue to sell more stuff to the existing consumers and to more consumers so they have such a loyal base of consumers that they will continue to sell product and i would not bet against that for everything in the world. >> i would also point out, the stock is up 25% from 15 months ago. it crashed 40% in two months starting in early october and it's doubled since then. it seems like a ridiculous run it's been on this year, but that's kind of because of where it came from it's much more about this market loves stable long-term clothes and is paying a high price for them and it's determined apple has that
>> is it earnings estimates or multiple >> earnings estimates has barely budged it is basically the multiple and normalizing the idea that the cash flow is going to be -- >> but that's the profound point. is the clotheash flows. the cash flows remain stable >> talk to us about market internals? >> it's been positive even when the indexes were down. if you look at the new york stock exchange advancers versus decliners, pretty handedly to the upside, that's obviously a positive and then you want to take a look at this chart comparing the equal-weighted s&p 500 against the regular index, year-to-date, you see the large cap. you see about a 2 percentage point advantage from the market cap-weighted one that's obviously those very large stocks leading the way and bonds have had a very good year, but they're at a decision point. the aggregate etf, the total bond market, you can see how it's got in that narrowing range, can go either way if that doze go down, that means yields are going up. >> we've got just over a minute, minute and a half left of the
session. let's have a check in at the nasdaq with frank collins. >> hey, there, wilf. the nasdaq will finish the last trading day of 2019 in the green. still below the record highs above 9,000 that it reached last week chip maker western digital up 1.5% american airlines and kraft heinz also trading higher. the ibb, nasdaq biotech etf will finish with its best yearly performance since 2014, rising 21% in the last three months of the year when it comes to f.a.a.n.g., apple is the best performer, up nearly 1.5%. also facebook trading higher the rest of the f.a.a.n.g. names and microsoft in the red on the last trading day of 2019 now over to bob pisani at the new york stock exchange. bob? >> nice push at the close, frank. about a hundred points for the dow in the last hour i think it's important to note that we've had some neglected sectors move up nicely this month, including gold stocks we have newhighs here. gold is over $1,500. look at that push up in that stock, all the gold stocks moving the other one, my vote for
sector of the month, energy, hope springs eternal horrible four or five years, but companies like devon, exploration production companies up about 15, 16% we'll see if that translates into the new year. there's the closing bell on the final trading day of 2019. the s&p 500 up nearly 29% for the year >> welcome to the "closing bell." i'm wilfred frost. >> and i'm contessa brewer in for sara eisen, along with mike santoli, cnbc senior markets commentator. here we are, 4:00 p.m. in new york it is midnight in moscow that city celebrating the start of 2020 as we wrap up the markets on wall street >> there are the fireworks >> there you're seeing the fireworks. >> sometimes it's just a matter of stretching until they explode. >> the camera slightly offshot, as well. but there we go. happy new year to everyone
>> someone's there and pivoting for us thank you very much, in our moscow bureau. but happy new year again to everyone that's already celebrating it back to the markets. here's how we finished the day, the year, and the decade the dow up 0.26%, 75 points, ending the year at 28,535. s&p up about a third of a percent today. we did finish today at the high of the session, not quite record highs following a little bit of a sell-off yesterday >> and let's show you where we finished the year. 2019 was a very good year with the dow industrials up 22 points, the s&p up almost 29%. i said points, but i meant percent. and the nasdaq up 35.25. joining us to talk about the market day, barry nap from ironside macro economics and keith bliss from iq capital still with us. let's begin with mike santoli. it feels great to end the day, the year, the decade on a positive note, but it's really
been an amazing year for investors. >> and one really, relief, i think, at the start of the year, that the bad economic scenario, maybe we're getting priced in at the end of 2019 did not come to pass and then what we got was federal reserve cutting rates three times, without really much cost in terms of economic growth. so basically, financial conditions got much more accommodating and loser. at the same time, profit margins basically held flat at record levels and the u.s. consumer did fine so i do think all of that together meant, you know, bull market acting like a bull market and we expanded valuations, because it seemed like a recession was not anywhere close and credit markets have been really underwriting this entire move >> barry, in the short-term, you think this positivity can continue >> i do. there's three tailwinds. we have this tendency to get to the end of the year and think, okay, well, what happens next year and figure it's going to be different. and for sure, it will. this is not going to be an echo of 1998, where we spend the whole year recovering from the crash of '87, as we did.
but the way i would think about it for the first four months or so of the year is that we're in the midst of a, of the recovery from a global manufacturing and export recession so that positive dynamic, as those numbers get better coming out of places like china, even germany, perhaps, will be a positive macroeconomic catalyst. the next is that the fed will continue with qe 4, which has clearly loosened financial conditions you guys have been talking about the weakness of the dollar the curve has steepened considerably 2s, 10s, any of the other measures have really gone from deeply inverted to strongly, actually, upwardly sloping and the final piece is just that whole question about the consumer and the fact that we actually are getting the best real wage growth that is, wages less inflation of the entire business cycle, with
the savings rate high and the consumer having deleveraged through this entire business cycle. there's just no scope for any weakening of consumption so, you know, as the trade tensions ease and capital spending recovers as well, you've just got this window that should last until about april. and i'm real specific about this april/sort of may time frame, because like 2011 after the launch of qe2, after they launched sovereign qe in europe, you get to this point where you start looking at earnings, the markets have had a huge move, and these programs are just not that economically efficacious. and so earnings will probably -- i expect an earnings recovery, to be clear. but they won't be as strong as stock prices reflect, and we'll be staring down the barrel of another fed policy normalization-related correction when they want to end the $60 billion of treasury bill purchases per month. >> we go into 2020 and we don't talk a lot about the fact that
equities have been boosted by buybacks there's been access to a lot of easy money you've seen companies who don't need the cash offer up bonds and a big demand for it, because the yields have so low on treasuries around the world do you have any concern, keith, about the credit situation that we're facing not just with companies, but also with our own federal deficit. our debt is growing astronomically >> the ballooning debt of the consumer, the corporate end, and the sovereign level is concerning and something to keep an eye on, for sure. but when you live in a world of artificially depressed intersta interstainterest rates and people can still service that debt and leverage themselves a little bit more, especially in an environment where they're comfortable they're going to have a job and will be able to pay their bills, that's how economic expansion continues to go. barry alluded to something i look at a lot. and it's all going to play into corporate profits, especially if their margins get squeezed the next cylinder that must fire
to get this going is capex among all the sectors. >> is there an appetite there? that was the prediction with the tax cuts, that we would see these companies turn around and spend it by expanding their facilities and hiring new people and investing in technology. and what we saw was a lot of dividends and a lot of buybacks. >> no, no, no. >> bear in mind -- well, i think, also -- sorry, barry, i'll let you in in a second. when the tax cuts came, there was still a fair amount of uncertainty in the corporate world about where that was going to go. barry is boigoing to tell you it didn't all go back to buybacks capital goes where it gets rewarded and that's always going to be the case >> barry >> yeah, keith's spot-on about that the issue we have with capex is when people think about capex, they think about core capital equipment orders from that durables report. they didn't even get a positive incentive from the tax cuts and jobs act we already had 50% bonus depreciation at a 35% tax rate we got an absolute boom in
software and research and development spending research and development spending for the s&p 500 was running at 14%, as of the third quarter. so we are getting capex. it's just in those more, you know, software and r&d-related areas. so we're getting it, for sure. contessa, one point back to your question about the bond market, i think, that's really interesting is while corporate credit net issuance could be slightly negative next year and while the treasury issuance will be greater, the fed will be buying a good portion of that, at least through the first half of the year. mortgage issuance could be up sharply. i mean, we could talk about $500 billion of net mortgage issuance next year, in an environment where the fed is still reducing their holdings of mortgages. this is putting, you know, pre-payment volatility risks back into the market and could really cause mortgage spreads to widen out considerably that's sort of a peace of the bond market that people haven't thought too much about and that's part of the reason why i point to that april/may
time frame, because that's when the spring selling season is going on if you have a lot of mortgage supply coming to the market, that to me is a potential recipe for a pseudo temper tantrum scenario right around that time point. >> gentlemen, stay with us for a minute let's get to bob pisani for a look at 2019's biggest winners right here at the exchange >> yeah, spanx, old-school industrials, and fintech they round out the top three dow movers jpmorgan up 42%. i know it looks strong here, but the growth here was in the last quarter of the year, when rates started rising more decisively off their lows and the fed added liquidity. don't equal it qe2, that's the move up here united technology, old-school technologies, up and down really on the year. a little bit of a yo yo, and that was on trade talks ending off the highs for the year if there is one big winner, i want to show you ten-year chart of visa. fintech was the big winner, mastercard and visa, look at
this we started 2010 at $22 for visa, $187 there we're talking up 700% for the decade guys, back to you. >> bob, thank you. >> that's a typical point of how fintech hasn't really disrupted the existing players in the world of finance >> a lot of people -- well, there's been some serious disruption what happened is, a lot of small companies came into the fintech space, but they got bought out so jjpmorgan, five years ago, people thought they were going to get disrupted rather heavily. it turns out jpmorgan went on a buying spree and bought a lot of the fintech companies and adopted their ideas. that's why you can get an app with jpmorgan and move your stuff around, because they adopted a lot of those fintech radical ideas a few years ago, wilf >> yeah, although i'm not sure they've made that many significant acquisitions but anyway, we'll leave it there. bob, thank you very much, and happy new year frank collins is at the nasdaq with the leaders for the year there. frank? >> you know, not surprising. tech names led the nasdaq this
year chipmaker amd, it gained 147% in 2019 the biggest improvement on the nasdaq 100 chip makers and tech dominating the top 20 of the tech-heavy index. seattle genetics, the only biotech in the top 20 and improving more than 100% itself. you've got to remember, the nasdaq composite finished just under 9,000. f.a.a.n.g. stocks and microsoft accounting for more than 80% of the gains. and outside of the nasdaq 100, drug maker acxiom therapeutics, gaining more than 3 thour,000% n 2019 that's about a $3 billion cap stock. >> frank, thanks so much more that mike, as we sit and look ahead for a longer term for the next decade, what are the key factors? is it going to be whether the central banks say as accommodative? >> i think that's the backdrop i don't know if, in fact, you can make a decade-long call on anything like that we really didn't foresee i don't think ten years ago, you
necessarily thought that was going to be the full story i've often said -- i mean, i think that you could even go back to the '90s and there was a camp that was saying, it's all the central banks. greenspan kept short rates at 3% for too long literally, people were saying that and it is mostly about what the business cycle does and whether we have a real business cycle. i don't know if i can make a decade-long call i know that the availability of capital combined with risk appetites right now are very friendly to corporate values >> i think it would be awesome if pageant contestants would start doing that i have no idea what's going to happen in five or ten years, but here's what i do know. >> you would vote for me in the pageant. >> mr. america, definitely get "closing bell's" vote. keith, barry, thanks so much for joining us great to see you both. happy new year up next, alpha one capital's dan niles joins us with his tech outlook for the next year. the stocks to add to your portfolio in 2020. "closing bell" back in 90 seconds. - [spokesman] if you've tried college but never finished,
(group cheering) snhu lets you transfer up to 90 credits toward you bachelor's degree. - [woman] it doesn't matter how old you are, you can do it, you can finish. - [spokesman] finish your degree at snhu.edu welcome back tech closing out the year as the best-performing sector on the s&p 500. and dan niles from alpha one capital partners joins us now with some of his top picks for the year ahead dan, very good afternoon to you.
thanks for joining us. >> thanks for having me on, wilfred. >> before we get into individual stocks, what's your overall level of positioning in terms of overweight or underweight to stocks at the moment, relative to where it's been at various other points during this past year >> sure. what we've done, actually, is as the market has sort of rallied into year end, we've been going ahead and selling stocks or shorting names to get ourselves to more market neutral we actually put out a tweet on december 25th and talked about the fact that if you go back to about a year ago on december 24th, the market's up about 37% from its lows on december 24th and 2018 at these levels, you had a tremendous amount of multiple expansion. the s&p multiple has gone up almost 30% there's been 1% earnings growth. the rest is multiple expansion and i think as you start january, especially as you get close to february 3rd and the democratic iowa caucuses, the
market may have a pullback of 2 to 5% when we get into january >> how does your positioning in apple relate to that overall positioning? >> yeah, i mean, we're still long apple i mean, we've been long apple off and on all year, actually. apple is one of our top five profit contributors to the fund this year. and actually, we've generated 25% of our profits, believe it or not, from the short side, from being shorted at opportune periods of time, like in early may, when people were just too bullish on the trade situation, in our opinion, and apple's stock went down 13%. if you look forward from here, though, you know, apple's stock is at a decade high nearly in terms of valuation the 80% move up in the shares is totally driven by multiple expansion. but i think the good news is 5g phones coming later this year, they're going to see strong demand the question is what are apple's profits going to look like because unlike this past year, where you've had semiconductor
component costs absolutely cratering, you've now started to see memory costs go up we're long apple, but we like a lot of other names a lot better than apple, as we think about 2020 names associated with apple, but not necessarily apple itself, because they're really going to have to put up some very good numbers, given the multiple's at a decade high. >> well, what do you like about lumentum and how far are you looking for that stock to rise >> when you look at lumentum, here's the way to think about it, apple's september quarter, revenues were up 2% and their iphone revenues were down 9% lumentum's biggest customer is apple. they sell 3-d sensing into the iphones. that's used for face i.d lumentum's revenues to apples were up about 30%. even if you get flat unit growth at apple this year, lumentum's revenues could be up 60% to apple, because the thing you're going to see this year which i think is very exciting is bill gaetz has a saying, and i'm
going to paraphrase here, but new technologies are always overhyped in the near-term and underhyped in the long-term. if you look at augmented reality, that certainly fits the bill tim cook was talking about it in 2016 as eventually all countries will have an augmented reality experience every day, like eating three meals a day obviously, that's not the case, but i think what you're going to see this next year is you're going to add augmented reality experiences to smartphones, the iphone in particular, and that's going to drive a lot of demand and for lumentum, that's terrific, because that means you end up with two chips in every iphone, not just one, and the android market's five times the size and as they start moving to augmented reality experiences, that's going to drive even more demand so you look at lumentum, it's trading at about a 16 multiple that's much better than apple at 21 times, 22 times >> it's up almost 89% year-to-date, which i guess is the entire year at this point, dan. so when you're looking at
lumentum and you're calling for, say, you wouldn't be surprised by a correction of 2 to 5% early in january, early start to 2020, would you wait for that correction to get in or do you just think it's a great buy for the lodge run and you jump in now? >> i think if you don't own it already, you should hopefully wait for a correction, but for us, we actually own more of our lumentum than our other top four stock picks combined we look at stocks and go, okay, where do you have a good multiple lumentum has, again, a good multiple where can you see revenues accelerate where can you see margins expand and lumentum really fits all of that and if you think china is in pretty good shape, they sell a lot of chips into the 5g infrastructure market. so their optical business should do very well, also so it's in my opinion very good defense and offense. remember, we're a hedge fund, so we can short stocks to try to offset that risk and we've shorted some optical
names in the space in case there is a correction, which is what we're playing for. but with lumentum, when you're dealing with a company where we think the stock could be up 50 to 100% over the next year, it's hard to predict when that could occur. for us, we want to be big right now and use some other possessions to offset it on the short id >> dan, i note that one of your other top profit generators was disney it doesn't feel to me like a typical dan niles stock. where are you on that now? are you picking that for 2020 as well >> yeah, wilfred, when you look at disney, the way i think about it as follows. disney is, when you think about the new streaming services coming online, you've got disney, you've got apple plus, you've got peacock from comcast and you've got time warner with their own streaming service coming out, disney is the king of content i think i saw somewhere that they were 33% of all box office revenues this last year.
they had something like seven or eight out of the top ten grossing movies. if content is what's going to drive people to one of these services, disney is the king of content. for us, we look at them and see a very long runway of growth the most googled search term in 2019 was disney plus that tells you how, you know, how much interest there is in this product they had 10 million signups in a day. it took hbo now plus about three years to get to 5 million subscribers. i think if you're thinking about playing this, disney's got great cash flow, great content in contrast, you look at netflix, netflix is burning $3.5 billion in cash flow this year for us, especially with the market up 30%, all stocks, including disney, i like old-fashioned things like cash flow, good multiples, profit generation, things that haven't really mattered in the last 12 months i think with the multiples where they are here, that's something
that's going to matter a lot more going forward over the next 12 months. >> you're actually wrong, dan, in terms of what was the top google term. that was second. top was "what time is the market zone on closing bell," which is 3:45 p.m.. >> i thought it was, how could i get wilfred's style, but anyway. i thought it was how we could get your style, wilfred. >> no, no, you've got the list upside down for that but my final question pivoting more on the fact that we've just come to the end of the decade in tech who would you put down, of the big companies, the ultimate tech leader of this past decade >> i think there's no question, you really is to look at amazon. there is no company in the world that makes other companies quiver as amazon does when they announce they're getting into a space. whether it's in groceries, whether it's in drugs, you know, whatever space transportation obviously, we've seen what they've done to the likes of fedex. there's no question that jeff
bezos has been the most incredible leader out there, in terms of the breadth that amazon has in terms of their business and the ability to get into other businesses and use that scale to really dominate it. so in my opinion, amazon to me is the most impressive tech stock over the last decade >> dan niles, great of you to join us on this last trading day of the year and of the decade. happy new year thank you. you too, contessa. up next, we'll break down the charts to show you the most loved and the most hated stocks by analysts heading into the new year >> 2019 was the best of times for target and the worst of times for macy's, making them the year's best and worst performing retail stocks in the s&p 500. coming up, we'll discuss which of those stocks, which has suffered this past year, is now ripe for 2020. >> a tail of two stores. >> very good >> time to toast the decade with
prosecute the nazis in nuremberg. their values are why i walked away from my business, took the giving pledge to give my money to good causes, and why i spent the last ten years fighting corporate insiders who put profits over people. i'm tom steyer, and i approve this message. because, right now, america needs more than words. we need action.
time to toast the decade which of these tech products weren't available to consumers a decade ago the answer, the apple ipad in january 2010, steve jobs unveiled the tablet computer and the first generation was officially released on april 3rd, 2010. >> there's no trophy for getting that right >> isn't there >> no. >> well, i did get it right, though >> let's go over to mike santoli -- >> thank you for sort of acknowledging my victory >> he did get it right mike, i love the dashboard, by the way. it's very celebratory. >> i spent a lot of time trying to decorate that and make the twi twinkly lights >> thalloween was orange very orange.
>> i'm surprised we don't have a reel testing the market resolve some stocks were very unanimous or very overwhelming conviction, either bearish or bullish. the top five most favorite stocks based on consensus analyst ratings. this is it right here compared to fact set. a couple of -- i wouldn't say trends, but interesting things to know. first of all, assurant, that's a good performance, but 100% buy ratings. amazon and salesforce actually underperformers this year, not really at their highs, but still very, very loyal in terms of the sell side. and diamondback energy, oil and gas company, symbol is f.a.a.n.g. i don't know if that's why people love it, but energy as a sector has the great percentage of buy ratings, despite the poor performance. so take a look at the hated stocks these are the ones with the loes consensus ratings. probably not too surprising on some level
only six ratings from franklin resources. actively managed funds have had a very hard time although that stock is well off the bottom two insurance companies right now, people don't like them, even though they have done okay this year, macy's, not a surprise there very, very cheap stock, very out of favor the question is are they going to have a turnaround and coned, utilities in general, analysts don't tend to get a lot of enthusiasm for and coned is one they don't like, but it's up something like 40% this year >> i was going to say, had a good year, but not loved for the year ahead mike, thank you, as always up next, find out what's behind the recent brain drain at google and why some former employees are calling the companies now unrecognizable we're back in a couple of minutes. i am totally blind. and non-24 can make me show up too early... or too late. or make me feel like i'm not really "there." talk to your doctor, and call 844-234-2424.
time for a cnbc news update with sue herrera hi, sue. >> hello, contessa hello, everyone. here's what's happening at this hour dozens of west virginia state employees were fired over a photo showing them giving the nazi salute. the picture shows of correction officers cadets with hands raised in that salute. all were fired along with three academy instructors. 36 people in all >> the instructor within ten seconds could have said, that is inappropriate behavior do not do that again and that did not occur we would not be here today
>> a visibly indignant pope francis had to pull himself away from a woman in a crowd in st. peter's square after she grabbed his hand and yanked him towards her. the abrupt gesture appeared to cause him pain and he swiftly wrenched his hand away >> and we showed you new year's eve celebrations from around the world. well, we end with preparations for tonight's celebration in new york's times square. more than a million people are expected to attend, with dozens already lined up waiting to get into that area they have to go through heavy security, as well. at least the weather is okay so, as we leave you on this new year's eve, i wish you all a happy, healthy, safe and wonderful new ear. >> and back to you, as well. >> very, very happy new year i also want to go back and chat one of our -- our news update, the pope's got a lot of criticism for that >> yes >> i think it's legitimate, isn't it she grabbed -- he's an old man, it probably hurt him >> i think it is legitimate.
>> is it not legitimate? >> i think it is -- i think he was worried, it was a security risk, certainly, but also -- >> no, look, he hits her hand, though >> he hardly hits her. >> i think it's just because he's so loved and adored for being so kind and open, normally, it comes as a surprise >> it is not necessarily his usual behavior, but the speculation around it was that she was pulling him very hard and the security guys were upset. >> she looks visibly chastened, though >> you would be, it's the pope >> oh, i should not have done that >> happy new year, sue thank you so much. >> happy new year. >> stocks posting a big year of gains. let's get a check in on some of 2019's biggest sector movers, meg terrell is taking a look at health care. kate rogers is following up on restaurants and courtney reagan is following up on retail. >> hey, wilf, this year was the lead up to an election year, and in the health care world, that means a lot of talk about drug prices and you can see that investor worry reflected in biotech
stocks the ibb biotech index dramatically underperformed the broader market, that is until that last quarter when it surged with the help of m&a and a slew of early fda drug approvals. biotech's biggest winners for the year arqule. among the dow components, a mixed bag. merck and j&j both gained for the year pfizer ending the year down 10%. guys >> meg, thank you. let's take a look at the year's biggest restaurant movers with kate rogers. kate >> hi, contessa. restaurants have had a big year with nearly every major fast food chain for 2019. the outperformers have been chipotle, up nearly 100% for the year papa john's up nearly 60%. that's thanks in part to a turnaround under new ceo, rob lynch, and yum china up over 40%. names like brinker and bj's have struggled both negative for 2019, as declines in that space in casual continue major names like starbucks, also outperform the s&p, out 35% year-to-date, while mcdonald's
gained about 10% with analysts really looking ahead to 2020 to see what its tech investments will do for next year's gains, guys back over to you >> kate, thanks so much for that now retail underperforming the broader market over the course of the year, although there were big winners hidden amongst that. courtney reagan breaks it down for us >> 2019 was a dynamic year for retail, with a big divergence between winners and losers lululemon up 90% this year tjx shares gained 36%. target up more than 90%. best buy higher by 66% gap, "l" brands, children's place, all down more than 30% in 2019 macy's shed more than 40% of its value this year. and kohl's lost more than 23% in 2019 >> courtney, thank you for more on the divergence in retail and which stocks might be the best buying opportunities, let's bring in dan nifin's, ceo.
great to see you today we were talking earlier about this tail of two stores. it sounds very, you know, classic in our literature take off here so you've got target on one hand macy's on the other hand which of these leads the decade in doing the right thing can macy's turn it around? >> leads the decade? boy, that's a long time. i don't have any investors that have a decade-long horizon but let's look at the next couple of years. if macy's doesn't cut the dividend, and they won't, because they have good cash flow, can they get significantly cheaper? i don't think so they're paying a 10% dividend. it surprises me that a lot of people don't own it just for the dividend i feel the same way about kohl's they have a 5% dividend. i don't think they can be down year over year i can't imagine not holding them for the dividend people on cnbc all day talked about, we might only see 0 or 5% growth in the whole stock market next year. you would love to have a dividend that was 5 to 10%
and the same goes for nordstrom's. all three of those have been unfaired retailers over the past year and they're all solid. they've all reinvested in online, they're all doing buy online and pickup in store, all the things you want to do like walmart and target are and yet, of course, they're not performing at those levels, so they're not getting paid for it. but they've got great dividends. they're not going broke and are not going to cut the dividends i'm always surprised when those kind of companies can't seem to get a bid on the stock >> looking through your note of calls for 2020, i'm interested in what you say about grocery and online delivery of groceries. where are we in that cycle and what does it mean for the stocks next year? >> online grocery is only 2.5 to 3% of the total grocery market at the moment. it's got to get to the numbers like apparel is, 24, 25%, or like electronics at more than 50%. so it's going to have to start growing pretty fast at some point. and walmart, kroger, they're
ready to push that button, because walmart's already pushing it pretty hard already. drive-through, pickup, all the things they're doing we're going the see huge growth in grocery penetration online this coming year and for the next five years in a row that's going to put an enormous amount of pressure on the grocery sector, but it's also going to give the customers exactly what they want and it's going to be great if you can do it. and we know walmart can do it. >> we saw a lot of store closings this year we saw some big retailers going bankrupt, going out of business here what do you expect for next year >> just as much or worse i think we saw something like 16 bankruptcies already this year and this year is really not over for retail until the end of january. we will see more we could easily see 16 or 20 next year, maybe more. we saw 10,000 stores about announced on closures. we're still not to the end of the year yet we could easily see 10,000 or 12,000 next year that's not changing. mall-based retail is reall
struggling and we're going to see lots of stores close in malls. we will see some offmall stores close, too but mall-based retail is going to see a lot of stores close for the next five years in a row we are not nearly through this cycle. >> dan nifin, great to see you happy new year >> you too >> up next, former google employees say a huge cultural shift in brain drain at the tech giant has made that company unrecognizable and before we head to break, we hit the streets to ask what your money resolution is for 2020 >> my money resolution is to work more on my need versus want >> to save money i feel that i don't save money enough and we're buying a house, aren't we? in 2021. >> money resolution, i want to make $100,000 -- i don't know, probably next week
>> more truces, fewer proxy fights and new rules are three key themes in focus for activist investing in 2020. first, more truces when eliot settled with at any time in october, it did so in a unique way at any time announced several proposed changes that eliot recommended, but the hedge fund did not get any board seats, nor was it prohibited from public fights in the future industry watchers say these non-standstill settlements will become more popular because they can make both sides happy while avoiding time consuming proxy contests which leads to our sec thing, fewer proxy fights in the first few quarters of the year, there were only nine proxy contests reaching a vote that was less than half of the 20-plus contests that have become the norm over the last six years. lastly, new rules. the s.e.c. is looking to enact new regulations of proxy iss and
glass lewis. these new rules make it easier to sue proxy firms for false statements and reports among others things. they have been opposed by ki activities like carl icahn who say it makes it even more difficult and expensive to practice activist investing. >> thanks to leslie for that mike, clearly the last decade has not been good for the active investing theme. the question is now whether there are enough left to make the most of the next decade, if it does come back to the right environment. >> we're talking about activist. if it's going to be affecting change on the corporate level from hedge funds, it seemed to peak a few years ago what are some of the things they tell these companies to do in most cases buy back a lot of stock, spin off a subsidiary those things companies are already doing, plus there's been some easy defenses active management, it's all systemic so basically everyone is a quaunt or make-believe quaunt.
it's really been discredited for better or worse. >> coming up next, behind a massive cultural swift google veterans are calling the company's environment unrecognizable what that could mean for sandeep pichai as he takes over. and before we head to break, we took to the streets and asked about your financial goals for the next decade. >> a start-up company for about ten years now, hoping it either ipos or gets aacquired >> i would like reto cate my own business >> i want to make $6 million, yeah
the nasdaq finishing the year up a whopping 35% of the famed f.a.a.n.g. stocks, only facebook was higher, showing a 55% gain amazon, netflix, and alphabet all did well, but didn't keep up alphabet up 27% for the year cnbc.com's jennifer alias writing a story saying how the veterans of google say the company has become, quote, unrecognizable and jennifer joins us live from san francisco. why? what are they complaining about? >> so, they're saying, basically, there were a lot of changes that happened over the year and it's become this company that they don't quite recognize from when they first joined that includes having a direct line of communication with management, having influence in products, and having their concerns heard in organizations like hr.
>> in terms of the founders, has that god something to do with it the fact that eric schmidt, the former chairman is hardly involved anymore and larry page have given up their ceo titles albeit, clearly, they have significant influence in terms of their share ownership still >> yeah, i think, you know, we don't know exactly what is tied to the founders and we think they have been a little bit more distant from the company as the company has grown. and it's been a struggle for them to learn how to kind of scale their initial ideals of this open, you know, free-wheeling culture to, you know, scale 1 hurricane,000 plus employees, which comprises the workforce today. >> so are these complaints pre-departure of larry page and sergey brin, or is this now with the change, even in this last month, they're thinking, what are we going to do how do we move forward >> yeah, so the changes, with they say have been gradual over
the last few years, specifically, but 2019 was a pivot year for the company and they made a number of changes that affected how they could handle the employees so they had 2019 and -- the tail end of 2018 really was sort of the straw that broke the camel's back to where they couldn't relate to the workforce and the culture. and so it started before they stepped down now irving we see hints of what could have led to the stepdown and some employees told me it's become a culture that the founders actually didn't want initially when they started google >> jennifer, thank you very much the story is on -- on online on cnbc.com how veterans are calling the company unrecognizable. >> ninja's new kicks the game with details coming your way.
>> yes wilf, this is it our consumer still feeling happy and healthy. the chart goes back a two decades. consumer confidence reported a slight miss today, still, though, kind of chopping around below the recent highs we've been watching the slight downtrend. roughry we were in the late 90s. we haven't seen a precipitous drop and i focus on the mid-90s, the mid-cycle pause we in in the expansion. best case scenario is we are in something like that. but if not we are in the idea that it's kind of late cycle consumers feeling okay, but not necessarily suggesting they are accelerate the big ticket prchts into next carrier. we have to watch the trend, divides. >> mike, thank you very much final one of the decade. >> it was very good. up next, wall street buzz, the top things investors are talking
video gamer ninja and adidas launch the first sneaker collaboration. josh lipton with that. >> so contessa, it's called the ninja night jogger adult sizes cost $150. ninja isn't just a professional video gamer. he is a global celebrity with more than 22 million youtube subscribers. nearly 15 million on instagram and earns a lot of money when cnbc last spoke with him he didn't dispute reports he earned more than $50,000 a month. a lot of that he said came from subscribers. but sponsor shpts and deals helped too but if you wanted the ninja new shoe you had to be quick the adult sizes he says sold out in less than 40 minutes. >> josh, i'm surprised they went for the label jogger because usually gamers don't have to stay that fit and healthy. maybe ninja is fit and healthy they don't have to they could have gone with lounger orring
>> there is so many to choose from it's an interesting point you bring up i did check in with michael patrick of wedbush he was skeptical of how successful and popular ninja shoes would be because he wasn't sure that gamers really associated these professional gamers like ninja with the footwork we usual ily think of hands and eyes but ninja i think itting it's off to a hot start. >> good for him might as well monetize sneakers if you can thank you. we have 45 seconds left of the decade here on "closing bell." and you brought up a prop. i wish dsh >> translator: for the new year's rfrmgs i wanted to go outen a limb come out of my shell. i want to try new things and what do you think? >> you're wearing that all year then >> it's actually unclear on shot because i'm looking at the screen as well that says 2020. >> it looks like my really cool
glasses. anybody else want to weigh in a cool resolution. >> i'm going to ignore time cues more. >> they're going to love that. >> just joking >> i'm going to better adhere to time cues to end on time. >> thank you for watching. happy happy new year that does it for "closing bell." >> "fast money" starts now. >> we are live at the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's stoo sometimes square seven hours away from ringing in the new year 1.5 million expected to pack the streets below. and we've got a birds eye vul are view of it all welcome to "fast money" i'm kourtney reagan in for melissa lee. trade resist on the deck for the final show of the year and decade steve grasso chyron finerman dan nathan and guy adami tonight on fast pop the bubbly because the market handed in the best year since 2013 all 11 s&p sectors inhe finishing in the green and it wasn't just in th
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