tv Squawk Alley CNBC July 2, 2020 11:00am-12:00pm EDT
for every person to live their healthiest life. it is about lowering costs for employers. that results in innovation with programs can we drive more clinical value for people we serve. >> congrats on your initial public offering. >> thank you for having me, i appreciate it. >> good morning, everyone. welcome to "squawk alley." we're coming to you live from various locations. an interesting morning, we got a nice pop at the open the ten year opened at 73 basis points, we have seen some names go negative. >> carl, looking more broadly it
is another one of those mornings where it is hard for me to even construct a narrative. disney is down, so is netflix. that can change, but there is a lot that is up, especially among the large cap tech names that are higher >> yeah, on the back of that jobs report, the number is quite good, but 40% of the gains came from the leisure and hospitality sectors. it's a big day for ipos. l lemonade is going public today the indication looks like that price could double on the opening. it is priced at $29 a share it looks to be between $50 and $52. that could be another good shot in the arm for the ipo market. >> refreshing lemonade ipo,
nice in a is where we will begin talking about the markets this morning. let's bring in david rosenberg >> good morning. >> good morning. >> david, you have called this the no reason no rhyme market. but after this action that we're seeing this morning, does today at least make sense? >> look, i think the stock market is going to price in a lot of things including a v-shaped recovery. today's job number does not give public highway v-shape recovery today, but we have to keep in mind the deep hole that we're coming out of.
there is no doubt that the jobs are not coming back as quickly as we expected it makes sense that we started to see job creation coming back. but the hole is still so big in the context of losing 22 million jobs in two months so far with all of the reopen g reopenings that have happened. we recouped a grand total of one-third of that. we're still in the hole by 14 million jobs from where we were in february. if you look at the fourth-month trend, it was minus six. right now we're still minus 26%. so there is still a long way to go before question really call this a v-shaped recovery
maybe initially the stock market priced in a recovery >> okay, and mark, even among tech stocks i'm noticing a difference in how they're reacting to all of this. what was the trillion dollar club is now the $1.5 trillion club they are half a trillion ahead right now. half a trillion ahead of facebook that is interesting to me. i wonder how you parse that. does that make sense >> yes, i think about these two baskets of stocks that have come out of this crisis then you had online rethey'll is
clearly accelerated. that basket for off days reforms. you have recovery days like today and recovery stock you get google and facebook that is where you get the recovery names, but that gap, yeah, this market is clearly indicating there are structural winners micro soft microsoft is in that group it will be a long time for google and facebook to catch up to that. >> let's talk about facebook many guests say the boycott is unlikely to lead to material losses at the company but you just talked about the disconnect last night we got word that the four ceos of the tech companies
are going to testify together. >> i think this is a manageable risk for facebook. it depends on if they can get beyond being tone deaf the comments about what is going on internally suggests tone deafness it doesn't have to be a crisis it doesn't have to impact their revenue. that ad model is the most resilient ad model out there, period even more than google. facebook is not going to face anti-trust actions i think that is highly unlikely. the places you have social conflicts of interest. they run a commerce market and they compete in it that's where regulators should probably focus the most. i think there is different type of risk associated with facebook it is a policy and political risk that will be big in the next six
months, and finally their privacy risks. >> so a set of very different issues for each company but they will all appear before congress. do you think it leads to real reform and regulation of the big tech companies when they appear together and you said that google is the most at risk, right? >> i think just because someone can look at google and say wait they are 90% share and they have had some pretty impressive business practices from time to time that's why they have been fine nine billion euros in the last few years. amazon is hart to go after them and say there has been consumer harm it is really hard to make the argument there there may be issues with amazon marketplace. but third party sellers have been slowly gaining. none the less, this is the first time we're seeing all of the big
tech names in the spotlight. it will depend on how they're prepped and prepared and i'm sure they will get tough questions. >> david, some of the things i heard is two-fold. expect western europe to recover faster given their response to the pandemic the other is that a 60/40 portfolio is losing relevance. do you have thoughts on either one of those >> yeah, i'm in that camp that believes that europe will be outperforming the u.s. i think their response to the pandemic was a lot more effective and you can see it in the relative numbers, and they didn't blow their brains out on fiscal stimulus. so they have a lot more dry powder and i pinpoint germany as the
post ter child fer chie eer chi right. the euro has been on an appreciating trend in the last few months and it is being reflected that their relative shift in expectations. the way i see the fixed income markets, it doesn't always have to be treasuries it can have municipals in there. i would say that within the fixed income component you should be focused on long duration i don't know so much about the 60/40, but that is what you want to focus on and the bond market has been a great place to be people forget that the total return is not just on the yield.
the long bond by the sway generated at 25% year to date. and it has been over 30% you can still make a lot of money. people like to talk about trading stocks you can make a lot of money still in the bond market, but i stress the long end of the bond market i think you want to be very strategic. i think you want o to flto spli into cause rants we have redone the stock market, and we're finding that our stay at home intest is hitting the lights out so that is the barbell that i
would be focusing on >> that is a great lens, have a happy fourth >> you, too, john. all of the best. when we return, the hotwire founder spencer rascoff wehiigng in on the facebook ad boycott. we're back in just a moment. helps you redefine what's possible... now. from the hospital shifting to remote patient care in just 48 hours... to the university moving hundreds of apps quickly to the cloud... or the city government going digital to keep critical services running. you are creating the future-- on the fly. and we are helping you do it. vmware. realize what's possible. we'all around the world.ally tough time right now, and covid-19 is still impacting so many people.
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since groups have launched their stop pay the next guest says if you really care about the issue, go start a competitor to facebook he say it's is not impenetrable. the zillow cofounder, angel investor happy fourth, welcome back, spencer. you make creating a competitor to facebook sound easy >> listen, it is not easy, but the point is that facebook has been under pressure for years. and let's go back in time. first it was election hacking, then privacy issues. and then it was their
acquisitions in facebook and nowit is this age of information. we have been through this before i think we learned that it is not likely to have a material impact on the business the only two things that really matter to facebook that can get the attention of manage are current employees and competition. so current employees, facebook manage cares deeply about making sure the company is the best place to work. that they attract and motivate people i think if you care about these issues use need to find ways to have existing management speak out. i think that is interesting. but the bigger one is competition.
we know it might be twitter, but twitter didn't really go through, we focused on the news and less on status updates and photo sharing. it might be tiktok and it might be a start up. there was a time before facebook there was myspace, there was aol communities, there will be future channels built, and i just personally i'm pretty concept a that these advertiser boycotts are, you know people discussing on cable television their consternations, i don't think that will change things. >> right, right, i wonder i mean there is a note out today, they think the boycott could go into november these company that's have joined the boycott, maybe some of them
have honest disagreements with the speech policy of the company but maybe some are more interesting in loosening facebook's grip. >> they slashed ads in march so now to be pulling out, it is not much loss for the next couple of months i think for most of that they would love to spread it around places where they can advertise. every start up i talk to is still advertising a lot on facebook and they're just seeing better economics than ever in march, the cost per
accusation, the efficiency measures all led up to less competition. there is equalibrium again, i'm pretty skeptical that this bl l have an impact on business >> let's talk about some of the potential competitors. there is the social media darling that was on with us this morning. does having another social media platform that is newer create a new set of problems. why not fix the ones on the biggest platform which is facebook do you think as an entrepreneur yourself that change needs to
occur at facebook? >> these problems are not yours or mine to fix facebook took the opinion that it is a town square. people say nasty stuff to each other in a town square i think the aches are broke to election hacking and i think of that as not worth it and they ought to throw that away but the conversation in the county square, labelling this information inside of it, i don't know how you do that, and most of the suggestions that i have seen have the unintended consequence of strengthening facebook facebook should label when things are incorrect
all that does is make the argument more powerful than before so i don't know how you regulate that >> yeah, spencer, is it tough. i want to ask you here where you recently joined the board and more broadly the space they're operating in teresa carlson who heads the public sector business told us this week that the government is making decisions faster than ever in tech transformation. so who do you think in the world of tech is going to benefit from that >> well, you know, company that's provide information decision making tableau. there is so much information now that is readily available to these companies that anything
that helps them make decisions is incredibly valuable there is a couple decisions that i have been excited about already. i see them trying to disrupt salesforce there is so much data that exists that i invested in one rightly called site works which is trying to do this they analyze the activities of employee and try to come up with ai driven efficiencies and imprivai improvemen improvements there is a lot of repetitive behaviors that employees do. if there is a way to make smarter decisions and be more e fish thae -- efficient that is powerful >> i know you always have
housing on your radar, is there anything that points to whether or not restrictions and the surge in cases is impacting the industry >> housing is on fire. all of the data is very positive people are cooped up and now they want to get out and buy and sell houses. g zillow is way up i think the interesting question is what are the long term changes, and it will be some of these trends around treal estat transaction ises will be had accelerated. open the door with your phone instead of in a crowded open house. now they're happening at scale
because of covid and many of those are big changes. >> if they can digitize closing that would be something so you don't have to sign -- >> yeah, they're working on it >> spencer, have a great weekend. >> still to come, talking about the challenges of reopening las vegas with a casino owner derek stevens.
welcome back, everybody, here is your cnbc news for this hour as cases surge dramatically in florida, the daily number of coronavirus cases top 10,000 for the first time it is one of several states now walking back reopening plans >> in texas regional hospitals are worried about bed shortages in the harder hit houston area hospitals have started to move patients from crowded units to other facilities a fire and explosion struck a building near iran's nuclear enrichment facility. the flames were bright enough to be detected by satellites. >> several major airlines are
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welcome back, you're looking at the lemonade post it is significantly different from the price lost. we will be talking to the ceo later on in the show it has been a month since las vegas casinos reopened to the public but with a resurgence of cases happening statewide, are people still willing to gamble? weighing in now is derek stevens. good morning to you and thank you for being with us.
>> good morning, thank you for having me on >> what have you seen in the last few weeks has the demand remained strong i know you saw pent up demand and strong uptick at the beginning of that reopening, what's the latest. >> that is one of the great things about being a privately held company, i don't have a quite period initially there was tremendous pent up demand to come to las vegas. i think what we have seen here is an evolution of customers customers have changed the initial masks requirement was rough, but i think society has changed and everyone has a mask on and everyone is figures out a way how to stay safe and have fun the one thing i would say that is most unique to me is we're doing quite a bit with social distancing in las vegas.
that creates lower headcounts but our slot and table numbers are up so the spin per person is up far more than we would expect. i expect some of the publicly traded companies that are trading here next month will indicate that. >> so you have been seeing most people inside of your casinos wear masks, that is a stark contrast to the images that we saw when the casinos first reopened and i know you say that customers are spending more, but how is it looking year on year >> year on year in in evidence we opened on june the 4th. we finished the month year on year
the gaming spend was above june of 2019. and that was with far less people here. i think the spend is here and we're doing everything that we can to make sure that people have a great experience where they can stay safe and have some fun. >> good morning, derek it is john so las vegas casey knows are notorious for using technology to keep their money safe and controlling the environment inside do you need to use technology for health now people who have a camera to see who has a temperature that maybe did not report that. who is following the rules and who is not >> we implemented temperature checks at all of our entrances the regulation is that we have to temperature check all of our guests right before they come in the door and what we found is that makes people feel a bit more
comfortable. that really sets the table when for people come inside it sets the table for all of that i think some of the technology and the changes that have been implemented have worked out well so far >> is there anything else that you're contemplating i imagine there will be a time when maybe a temperature check at the door might feel a little obtrusive. i'm hoping we get to that time, and maybe other technology that could have a similar impact? >> i think what we're seeing, we're seeing some very radical es ka fla-- escalation. the entire casino world is changing quite a bit i fully expect that in the
course of the next week or two we're going to continue to evolve our current health and safety plan that is filed with the nevada game aboard is set to met on july 22 if someone doesn't have a mask on, it's our responsibility to talk to them and do it in a man near is friendly and say if you're in here you have to wear a mask and in our casinos you must wear a mask >> as we're talking just a quick look at lemonade that as you know priced at 29 above the range. opened at 50.06, they're at a 80% gain currently trading above 53 anyone knows that grow to vegas for the gambling, but also for
the shows. how does that change -- >> derek, can you hear me? >> yes, sure >> i don't know if you heard my question about entertainment, right? how is it changing the name of the traditional vegas guest? >> it is a little different. people came to las vegas for a lot of reasons shopping, culinary, shows. currently without the live entertainment it is just a different dynamic. i think that people are still interested in going to an environment where they can feel safe i think there is a lot of pent up demand to get out of the house, but everyone wants to be careful. so i think what the nevada game and control boards has done is a good job putting customers into a situation where they can feel comfortable and still have a
little fun >> derek, lastly, are you concerned about the spike in coronavirus cases that we're seeing in nevada are you prepared to perhaps scale back your reopening plans? >> yeah, this is a situation that is evolving day by day. i think we're all looking at a lot of numbers we all wish data was a bit more consistent to be able to evaluate things. but yeah i mean we're prepared on a moment's notice to make changes. we are changing the use of the sportsbook apps. that is something that we have seen here. the demand for it has been great. we launched in colorado, and we launched in california and it is great to see some demand for some of the online and app sports betting that is something that falls into great social distancing
you know we're all trying to adapt as fast as we can. >> got it, did not know that colorado was derek's ala mater >> it's true, go boulder later on in the hour we'll talk to the head of lemonade. just opened for trade as we said right around 52.5. an 80% gain here we have come off of session lows, the dow is up 5.22 don't go anywhere. i'm searching for info on options trading, and look, it feels like i'm just wasting time. that's why td ameritrade designed a first-of-its-kind, personalized education center. oh. their award-winning content is tailored to fit your investing goals and interests. and it learns with you, so as you become smarter,
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job's thursday we have a surprising amount of jobs if you go back to that third month, april, make some sense of how we should categorize this number if we're trying to hold or add to investments invariou sectors. >> there is no negative to this number it is absolutely amazing that we have come back so quickly. the best news about this is that it is not only the size of the number not just that it is 7.5 million jobs in two months but the nature of the jobs and the come backs. so if you look at the jobs that came back, they were lost. that is that is the sign of a healthy recovery when you retrace your footsteps.
it is going on and causing a problem. that is good news. the other good news i would add to this is we have a lot of run way left most of them are nowhere near back to the payment levels they were at. they are still in the 50% range of coming back the big states, california, texas, florida, they're in the 50% to 60% range we have a lot of room to grow. >> on our panel this morning, one of the big negatives is the stock market and the economy are not exactly the same i understand that and to the point we have no idea what is around the next curve with regard to coronavirus. but all things considered, states that are having problems especially in the northeast v
not ramped up to the extent that some of the more exhibiting states have. in my opinion that gives many some solice that those states will pick up many of them the economy is so large that therate should improve, should it not >> i they dependes on what governors do i track foot traffic it is about 3.5% higher this week than it was last week despite everything going on we're still moving in a positive direction in terms of opening up of course if the governor's decide to clamp down and slow, we could see -- i don't think we're going to go back in the other direction, but we could see a slowing in our rate of growth if you're looking for a negative, and economists always
have to give you a negative, if you're looking for a negative the continuing claims are predicting an unemployment rate for next month that would be not much lower than where we are right now. kind of in the 11% range corrected for the under count probably in the 12% range. that would be the only negative that i wound point ould continut out. we have a lot of room to see the good growth in the future. >> ed, when we think of what is going on, the nirms are quite confusing. they are positive but they are moving down. then you look at month over month and it is the opposite
picture. can you clarify some of the income interpretation for some of these >> i think the market looks forward, not backward. it is saying how optimistic should we be is it reasonable to expect that in the next few years we'll be down 6% to 8%. if we had a recovery back to these levels, we could expect that we would be back to the levels that we saw then. the market and the inconsistency with the past numbers really is the difference between the
future and where we have been. it is not optimistic, but it is not crazy. >> thank you for your interpretation here. everyone wants to see the numbers improve and they have improved hope you have a great independence day weekend thank you for joining me >> thank you very much we are keeping an eye on lemonade making it's public debut this morning priced above it's indicated range at $29 a share it is up more than 80% in the first few trades the ceo joins us next on that ipo after the break. do stay with us. i got an oriole here.
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your risk is >> we're heavily regulated and try to do the right thing at every time we're always respectful of not only privacy laws but our customers expectation. we're not trolling them or looking at social media or anything like that when we interact with customers there are signals that are being set off the whole time those are aggregated the machine learning can correlate them or search for regression test them for claims. insurance by law is required to charge customers for rates that
commen commensurate with their expected loss just treating them one single price across the board we get closer and closer of judge people by the content of their can recollect the and not one or two superficial data points >> congratulations the stocks close to doubling. appreciate it very much. have a great long weekend. let's get to the judge all right. thanks so much welcome to the halftime report our second half set up continues today. stocks are rising following the jobs report. are new highs the next stop. we debate that and the markets with your money with our investment committee the ce