tv Options Action CNBC July 18, 2020 6:00am-6:30am EDT
powerful and dangerous motivator than greed. powerful and dangerous motivator happy friday welcome. another installment of "options action" is here. here's what's coming up on the big show tonight >> as madonna once said, we are living in a material world and i -- hold on a second. this is carter worth's world and he'll do the singing, thank you very much, singing the virtues of materials then lizzo once sang, where the heck my phone. tony zang knows. he's found t-mobile all up in his contacts he'll show you how to unlock that finally tiny tim once
crooned tiptoe through the tulips with me but mike khouw's tune is about tiptoeing through tips. or treasury inflationary protected securities now try to harmonize with that one. yeah it's time to risk less and make more "options actions" begins now let's begin with the material world that we are living in. materials making a big comeback in the past few months that has carter eyeing an even bigger rally for the group carter, what are you looking at? >> well, in the sense that if one wants to really talk about the whole notion of value growth and what is working and what isn't working, what we do know of course is of the four highly cyclical sectors, materials, energy, industrials and financials, it's actually materials that have done the best so let's look at a few tables and charts the first chart is simply
looking at those four from the march low, from the market's low. what we see here is that materials are leading the way. it's a small sector, but it's an important sector nonetheless look at the second slide what about year to date? not from the march low, since we began the year now, everyone is down. while materials are down, albeit barely take a look at a one-year basis. again, all the sectors are down. materials of the four, the only one that's up 5% even on the two-year basis show how long this has been the only of the four cyclical sectors that is green on a two-year basis is materials. you're seeing important moves in certain stocks finally let's look at a chart. the first is the xlb, the etf. it's very licked and you can trade. if you look at the next and final chart, this is what my eye sees, meaning we are toying with the prospects of an important
breakout type move to a new high that is not the case for financials or energy, or industrials. they are not at 52-week highs and they are not in this position certain key stocks like ecolab has broken out sherwin williams is doing it apd and so forth you're going to get some of the laggards to catch up and the sector, overall, will break out. long on materials because they're a coiled spring but also because they're doing the best if you really want to go into cyclicals and value growth conversation. >> mike, what's the trade based off of these charts? >> certainly carter was just talking about a couple of things that i would actually take a look at. lind which is the largest constituent of this is at all-time highs we have newmont in there we have ecolab newmont, a lot of people are playing in the mining space.
looking at metals in particular. these are stocks that are all doing remarkably well. a lot of times when you get to these levels, the stocks, the top three actually represent 35% of this particular group of stocks and they already have broken out to new highs. the other thing i would have people consider as we try to come up with options strategies right now, we're at a fairly interesting structure. karen kind of alluded to this at the tail end of "fast money" when she was talking about the vix. the vix is at historically elevated levels, but when you think about where we've been in just recent history and the fact that we're not through all of the uncertainty that would have created that elevated volatility to begin with, i actually think maybe for the first time in a while we shouldn't b looking too much at spreads. even though options prices might be higher than they have been historically, i think justifiably so given the continued uncertainty we have.
when you're looking at trying to play for new breakouts in the index itself, you can keep the trade really simple. i was looking out to the september 62 calls they were about $2.25. when we think about that, that's a relatively small percentage of how much xlb costs at this point. you will have more of an opportunity if you keep the trade simple right now and we do see a spike in volatility to trade around that position, whether you want to spread it, whether you want to adjust it. frankly doing things like selling puts as this juncture and i think that's a risky proposition and i'm not really inclined to do it. we're personally very bullish here we're probably about 75% net long, but we are net long volatility now. >> tony, do you like this trade? >> i like this trade from the
long-term view carter has of the breakout above 62. i like the constituents everyone has mentioned here they're looking very strong. one concern i do have, which mike brought up about the risk of selling a put here, is that this etf is up 13% over the last three weeks. it's trading just against that 62 level you see a bit of negative convergence on the recent moves higher i have a concern you have a 3-5% pullback of the next few trading periods. i like to be a little bit more conservative on these types of trades mike's trade is only risking 4% of the underlying etf value, which is a very small level to risk i think you could get a pullback into that $58 or $60 level i would be looking to go long in that area. >> mike, do you want to respond? >> i think that's actually specifically why here we are, we have this binary situation. it's either going to break out
or do what tony was suggesting, which is fail to break out in the near term. that's one of the things if we pull up that chart of how a call profits, what you're going to see is that asymmetry you're limiting your downside risk but you get upside participation. that's the reason we're using this, probably one of the simplest strategies you can have at this particular time. it's because we've had that run. it's because of the risk it could pull back but it's because it is also potentially poised to break out. >> overall, carter, do you think that value and cyclicals are the place to be in the market? >> again, these are just trading chips. they don't have enduring prospects. the question is, yes, if you're going to go for the gusto, beta is one area to do it and beta is associated with often deep cyclical type names. the point here xlb or xlf, xli or pick your individual stock, you're going to get torque out
of this area of the market more so than the other. while materials are indicative of the market, t-mobile gaining ground in the last few months, more recently on one report this week that it is unifying the telecommunication giant sprint under the t-mobile brand tony, what are you looking to do >> i really like t-mobile. i've liked this for quite some time i really see this as a bit of a disrupter in the wireless carrier space we're going to see more going forward. this is something that t-mobile is not shy about, going after both at&t and verizon customers and competing on them based on price alone. if we look at the chart, you've had a very constructive chart, a breakout above that $100 level it's been basing for a bit of time, consolidating. i think the earnings announcement next week is the catalyst you need to continue
moving higher. if you look at this stock compared to its sector it's the only wireless carrier outperforming the sector itsel over this past year, while at&t and verizon are severely underperforming this stock is not only beating its peers, but also the sector earnings were particularly strong, but th options market currently is not implying a big move here, only about a 2.7% move compared to the average of about 4.8% we've seen over the past four quarters so the trade structure i'm looking to use here is to take advantage of this somewhat mildly bullish view i have going into earnings and coupling that with my longer term bullish view here on t-mobile stock the trade structure i'm looking to use is a call diagonal. i'm going out to the august 7th, september 105, 110 call diagonal i'm buying the september 105 calls for about $5 and i'm
selling the august 10th calls for $1.92. net-net i'm paying $4.23 the outlook i have here is that t-mobile might move a little higher on earnings but not a whole lot. i'm looking for those august 7th 110 calls to roll off, collect that $1.92, and then i'll have those september 110 calls. this trade is only risking roughly 4% of the underlying stock's value to take this mildly bullish but long-term bullish view here into earnings. >> mike, what's your take on this >> i mean, i like it tony laid out very specifically and in quite an articulate way why you want to use a strategy like this. i mean, i wouldn't look at a straight calendar, but the nice thing about this diagonal is if it does rally, there's no circumstance where the stock can exceed the modest increase he's expecting and for you to see losses. buying the september at the money call, two primary mistakes
that most options traders who are buying calls will make is they either buy calls that are too far out of the money, or they pick an expiration that is just too short you need to give some time for your thesis to play out and you can't really start reaching too much for these ones that are so cheap that they're really kind of long odds that the stock is going to exceed the strike for both of those reasons, i think it makes sense finally, i would also like to point out, look how much he's collecting for the call that expires relatively soon. we do like selling premium when you have an identifiable catalyst especially if you don't think it's likely to exceed those strikes. that is the premium that tends to get crushed precipitously when the catalyst comes and goes i think this is a good trade structure in this particular situation. >> carter, what do you think of t-mobile >> this is an important stock.
in its enduring uptrend, let's say it that way. there was such an outperformer, then of course it merged with sprint on april 1st. when that move was announced in february, t-mobile was at the point in time outperforming the market, one, two, three, four, five years it's continuing to do that, meaning, yes, it's got its bigger competitors, verizon and at&t this is really the horse to bet on i love the chart and i love the way forward. >> loves the chart and loves the way forward. that's a striking endorsement from carter worth. check out our website optionsactions.cnbc.com. here's what's next coming up, is the market at a tipping point? professor khouw shows you how to balance out risk and reward around a market fulcrum that the home gamer rarely gets a chance to weigh into. plus, calling all options action fans. reach into your pocket, grab your phone and
♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ welcome back to "options action." check out treasury getting trounced today when there's a rate, there could be a breakout brewing. if you're looking for the best way to play it, you're in look because mike khouw is here mike >> i think the first thing we should think about is clearly from a fundamental standpoint it would seem that we are in a low
rate environment and maybe even that rates would go lower. yet kind of what you were alluding to here, one of the things we saw this week was we saw a lot of institutional participants beth on steepening the curve. what does that mean? they might have been selling longer dated treasuries and betting of near-term rates to fall we think that rates are going lower yet you start to see the long end of the curve go up a little bit what's going on here is actually inflation. that's the difference. it's real rates that we are concerned about. that's why we're going to talk about tips, treasury inflation protected securities implied volatility in all of these instruments is higher than it has been, but this is still a relatively cheap place to make a bet. i'm inclined to go out and buy the september 125 calls. those will cost about $1.15. a very small fraction, less than 1% of what the etf is currently trading at if we continue to see this
divergence, which is a play on lower real rates but the potential for inflation, is a way you can go out and buy tips which is seeing a significant rally in the last several months. >> carter, your thoughts >> we have one chart here that we can just examine together this is the break even etf, the tips essentially this, we're not only in a low rate environment, there is every prospect that rates are going to zero. in fact, that sort of mantra, rates to zero, gold to infinity, i think, is not so unreasonable. what we know is real rates on the five-year may be at record lows today literally at negative 1% despite all of those so-called hope and the growth and the coming out of the pandemic and all the things that one wants to consider to look at, rates are mired, and i think not only mired, but going lower
here, if you will, is the channel. i've tried to draw the channel as if the entire covid move sort of didn't happen you look in that sense and we are just ticking higher. so this is, again, i like the way forward. >> mike, do you like taking a look at the tip etf? carter mentioned gold to infinity there are two sides to play this sort of same thesis. would you also do the flip side to this? >> well, you know, i think both carter and i have been -- i mean, i don't know how many times i've repeated my long-term gold view going back at least 18 months we actually spoke in a conference at vegas about it i want people to be aware it's not the only way to play it. of course whether you elect to play it using something like this, or whether you elect to use something like gld, or whether you elec to decide to go out and buy the
miners or the junior miners or pick a specific one or buy silver i think any of these, in fact all of these, are probably good ways to play this exact same thesis. >> tony, what do you think >> this is a theme we've been talking about for quite some time this is how at least i am positioned in my portfolio, long gold, short rates. i completely agree with the trade itself i had the same challenge with mike as far as the trade goes as far as finding strike prices and collecting enough premiums to sell anything. one of the things i like about mike's trade is it's really cheap. he's risking a very small percentage to take this bullish bet. the one thing that i could potentially add to this trade which is something that i did with my hyg trade, which is sell an august 123 put. in that put you'll collect about 50 cents especially if you believe in the short rates environment. selling that 123 put will offset a little bit more than 40% of the cost of that long call that is one way to negate some of the time premium you have to pay on this trade. >> what do you think, mike
>> yeah. i mean, for the reasons i talked about earlier, i'm just no comfortable selling a lot of puts this thing traded down to about 109 or so. causing things to swing around a little more. because of that vulnerability, i'm not really looking to sell a lot of premium in our own portfolios we're not short premium here i think now is the time we can begin to start acquiring optionality instead of trading it morgan stanley, mike will reveal what to do next more "options action" up next. it's a thirteen-hour flight, that's not a weekend trip. fifteen minutes until we board. oh yeah, we gotta take off. you downloaded the td ameritrade mobile app so you can quickly check the markets? yeah, actually i'm taking one last look at my dashboard before we board. excellent. and you have thinkorswim mobile- -so i can finish analyzing the risk on this position. you two are all set. have a great flight. thanks. we'll see ya.
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td ameritrade now offers zero commissions on online trades. ♪ welcome back to "options action." time to take a look back at the week last week carter said morgan stanley was your best big bank bet. >> the key here is morgan stanley's relative performance to its sector. it is not at an all-time high, yet relative performance has already broken out and is particularly firm over the past several trading sessions and past several weeks >> i was looking at the july september 50 call calendar actually, the stock was a little bit lower when i looked at this today. it obviously closed at a relatively good level on the day. it's going to cost about $1.85 for that spread. >> the first leg of that trade expired today in the green what do you do now, mike
>> this is a situation please be sure to follow "options action" on twitter, and follow us on twitter. there was some give and take between us and the viewers on this i recommended rolling the short side out and up. when you wake up on monday and it's different, you should adjust your strikes accordingly. >> the action was down the financial sector overall was up 5.2%. i think there's more to go. >> all right elsewhere, tony said one farmer name was about to book some healthy returns. >> on a relative basis compared to the health care and pharma space, it's underperforming. if you look at the revisions going into earnings, they're particularly strong. i actually see the recent decline in this underlying stock as an opportunity to get into a long position going into earnings next week i'm looking to buy the 143-150
call spread spending about $3.15 to buy that july 143 call and collecting about 90 cents for that 150 call. >> the trade jumped into the green this week. tony, how are you managing this one? >> when you trade a vertical spread like this and the stock just reaches that upper strike, it's time to take profits. earlier today this trade was up about 95%. i think it's time to take profits and close out the trade. up next we have your tweets and the final call i'm searching for info on options trading, and look, it feels like i'm just wasting time. that's why td ameritrade designed a first-of-its-kind, personalized education center. oh. their award-winning content is tailored to fit your investing goals and interests. and it learns with you, so as you become smarter, so do its recommendations. so it's like my streaming service. well except now you're binge learning. see how you can become a smarter investor with a personalized education from td ameritrade. visit tdameritrade.com/learn
what do you look for whenearn i want free access to research. yep, td ameritrade's got that. free access to every platform. mhm, yeah, that too. i don't want any trade minimums. yeah, i totally agree, they don't have any of those. i want to know what i'm paying upfront. yes, absolutely. do you just say yes to everything? hm. well i say no to kale. mm. yeah, they say if you blanch it it's better, but that seems like a lot of work. now offering zero commissions on online trades. we charge you less so you have more to invest. ♪
welcome back to "options action." time to take your tweets our first viewer asks should i hold my august 14th, 210 call on microsoft? carter, why don't you take that one? >> it's a binary thing you have earnings of course next wednesday after the close. the stock closed slightly below that level my hunch is if it's going to be of the big tech names a winner, microsoft is probably it i'd hold them. >> mike, what would you say? >> yeah, i'm inclined. i like microsoft i'm long on the stock. >> tony, your thoughts >> i have a short put credit spread here on microsoft, so i'm not expecting such a strong move here on microsoft. i think it will be more of a muted move, just like last quarter. >> the thing going into this earnings season is we're seeing this rotation out of technology
as we talked earlier in the show, into value names mike, i wonder how you think that factors into some of these reports we're going to be getting. >> yeah. this is going to be a really interesting earnings season in general, i think, not just for microsoft but for a lot of different stocks, because of course the last earnings season really didn't tell us too much about what the impact would be now we're going to have a much better sense of that microsoft in particular is sort of an interesting one, because it plays off all the themes of work from home and all of that i like a lot of their products even though zoom, slack and some others have gotten some more attention for it than teams has done i'm just long on the stock i don't have to have an options position, but i do like it. time for final call. carter braxton worth >> materials here and select fund xlb is the way to do it long. >> tony? >> t-mobile, disrupting the wireless carrier space, long a call calendar going into earnings next week. >> professor khouw
>> long calls in xlb and the tips 11 years ago today my son tommy was born on another options action friday. happy birthday. >> happy birthday, tommy that does it for us here on "options action. see you back here next friday. meantime "mad money" starts right now. - [man] the following program is a paid presentation for the oxypure air purifier brought to you by nuwave, llc. asthma and allergies are at an all time high, and it seems to get worse every year. it's not your imagination. allergy season continues to get longer and more intense as temperatures rise, and airborne viruses are becoming an epidemic problem worldwide, with the changing environment, and unseen dangerous air pollution surrounding all of us. you need clean air more than ever. if you suffer from mold, dust, pet dander, smoke, odors, or sleeping problems. discover the nuwave oxypure air purifier.