tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC July 30, 2020 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT
thank you, carl >> john, nasdaq, green going into the big prints tonight. >> big prince and a lot of them. >> let's get to the judge. thanks so much welcome to the halftime report our top story, the countdown to what could be the most important night of the year for your money. apple, amazon, facebook, google reporting earnings after the bell nearly 5 trillion dollar in market cap so much is on the line which is why we debate that today we begin with a check on stocks. he's go right to the board
take a look at where we are trading about four hours of ahead of these earnings. nasdaq going positive ahead of that print lots going on today. you have the trump tweet casting doubt about holding the election there's your market pricture let's kick it around nasdaq turns positive. kramer thinking the stocks are set up for fall after the bell because they have run so much and yet you buy the cues into the print. tell me why. >> well, i bought the qs when the market was down because the market was down today based upon statements that came out from meadows saying they we are made far apart on a deal. yet, you have some great earnings come out from the tech companies and qualcomm corevo. u.p.s. also talking on the consumer side. i thought that the market was over sold. i bought the qs. i already sold out half of the trading position i'll hold onto those a little longer
i've got positions in every company reporting tonight. my exposure to nasdaq is long enough what jim points out it's is path of least resistance. you have stocks up over 70%. could they disappoint. could they take the q that we saw from microsoft sure does it matter how i'm looking at investing going out six mo h months or a year no the a blip. i'm not looking to add more. whether they go up or down it's not going to change how i feel >> or they go to the down side kerry, you own all of them apple up 78% amazon, 87%. alphabet, 50 and facebook, 70. are these things set up for fall or going to remind us why the gains happened in first place and it's a blip, if anything and
they continue to march higher and carry the overall market with it. >> well, i think, scott, this is an important day but not to the extent this determines how investors will feel about the year these companies are able to sustain their business they are resilient every one is engaged on social media. people are buying things online. they are having better years and better quarters than the rest of the economy and if they go down, we have seen enormous amount of buying power coming into the market and they swoop in and buy these stocks on weakness which i assume would happen if there's a sell off because as you pointed out, the least successful of these is up in 13, 14% range and amazon into the 60%. the market is flat for the year. what's more important and by far the most important data point this year is when there's a phase three study, a clinical trial that shows a vaccine works. if that happens in 2020, that is
the most important date for investors of 2020. >> josh, what are we expect tonight? are these things up too much >> they have a lot to justify. i think the most interesting thing that can happen and this is not what i think will happen but you ask female this is a big deal it's a big deal if they have great results and their stocks go down any way. to me, that would be more concerning than any other potential outcome. it's been a continuing pattern the only interesting thing i could happen is if investors say
it was great news but i'm selling any way because pick your reason. >> what does that mean if it happens? what does it mean for the rally that's gotten us to where we are today? >> that would be very meaningful that would be concerning because then you'd have to go to the second tier and third tier it's no what i think is going to occur. i think these companies will have phenomenal results and go a long way toward justifying some of the multiple expansion we have seen. >> facebook is your biggest
position what are you expecting tonight are you nervous going into the print? >> absolutely not. we did a survey of agencies and brands to talk about where are they spending their dollars. facebook is by far the number one platform even with what's happened with the boycotts, et cetera, three fourths of them do not expect them to affect it because the platform is just too amazing to go elsewhere the last third, google and youtube. i do not expect these names to trade off in the aftermarket as you think about retail investors and smaller institutional investors, you might see
movement around earnings here. 60% of asset flows are in passive mandates, the guys can't sell out of it they are rebalancing against where they are positioned and they are going to be there if you're a growth investor, you want to be with the leading names in tech these are these guys coming and reporting tonight. >> court, you can't ignore the fact the stock is up 70% from the low. for all the reasons you just said it's the leader. it's this. it's that. that's why the money has flown into that space. >> scott, it's going to continue to flow there. that is my point where else are you going with are you going to get the roi on your ad spend outside of facebook, outside of google? you can see i'm going to trim facebook and go to snap and twitter. i think those names will get a bit of a bounce as well. they're not names i want to be
in they will get a bit of a bounce of some folks taking ad tldolla and moving away. the highest roi they are getting are from the facebook platform you can't beat it. in search, it's google you talk about amazon, alphabet -- i'm sorry. you talk about apple you're talking about market leading companies that are not sitting by the wayside right now and saying we're leading we're going to sit back. they are constantly thinking about how to evolve their platform facebook still hasn't monetized what's app these names are names you put in your pocket.
>> i'll pick where the stock was before the market sold off which was 220, 230 i've got a company that's still growing at 20%, more than 20% on the bottom line. that's only up 10% this year from where it was before we're seeing the stocks trade up those are traders trading into the print in my estimation >> he's saying if they make the print and sell off, then we have problems that's not going to be a good sign >> i understand what he's saying he's not predicting but i'm
saying i think that's wrong. i think that is no sign at all it'sgoing to be a sign that traders try to get into it late. fundamental investors aren't getting in now if they miss by quarter or a dime, stocks trade down. >> fair. >> that will be my option. >> fundamental investors, court, may not be getting in now but they sure as heck might get out if they think the getting has been too good and may not be as good moving forward. >> if they got into these names they are not getting out now in they had to trim because they are measured against a benchmark which is what i i have been doing.
they have a benchmark to manage against. you might see selling. >> the market is trading at 20 times earnings and google, apple and facebook are in the 20s and arguably apple is a much lower multiple stock they are not expensive stocks compared to the market they have enormous cash flow and have been able to keep adding costs. they don't pay taxes >> haven't these stocks seen multiple expansion the multiples have expanded. >> not that much >> have the fundamentals gotten
so much better for any of these companies and truly is apple selling anymore phones than it was before the pandemic hit? is it services business just gang busters, more so now than it was before. >> yes, it is. >> i think so. i think yes. i think they deserve a higher mull approximate but earnings growth has dramatically exceeded that of the s&p. you look at industries that are just abysmal and i think you can justify much of what's happened to these stocks. they are nothing like we saw in the late 1990s it's just not an expensive proposition.
where else are you going to put your money doesn't that underscore why the stocks have appreciated the wap they have with these other nasdaq names that have ripped? >> mr. sajak, i'd like to solve the puzzle it's the only puzzle that matters in my game, in wealth management we manage money for over 1,000 families we have this conversation every single day. it's in the highest 95 percent tile of all time those are your two choices earn nothing on your money and inflation eats away at you day
after day or buy one of the most expensive moments in history for the s&p 500. you can buy international equities forr cyclical adjuste p p/e. nobody is making that case because it's not real. 40% of the emerging market index is now china 30% is technology and growing by the day. you look at brazil, people think
it's oil company it's not wait until you see the stock price and the l i. you have options overseas. the most investors have the home country bias 80% their equities are u.s. stocks they are a way underweight and it hasn't hurt them. the u.s. stock market has been way better over the last five and ten years. that looks like it could be starting to change when you look at the technicals. if you're trying to answer that question, scott, and that puzzle, what do i do for additional return above what i can get many the treasury but i don't want to buy the most expensive moment of the stock market ever. there's a third option and that third option is international diversification and with the dollar weakening, i think it will continue to work. >> which is why joe has talked
about investing in emerging markets. when you consider the fak, here we are talking about looking at our own economic picture and facing the realization that many economies overseas may recover faster than ours because they handle the virus >> or they are >> they already are. >> look at germany >> i understand what josh is saying about the multiple. i think we look like hollywood scares when we look at the screen international markets have the emerging markets are a much, much smaller market. if you overweight them too much then you're running the risk of being over exposed to commodities which many of them are tied to. >> false false. >> they are cheap.
>> hold on i don't want to do the talk over everybody thing. it's too hard to understand. kerry is talking josh is saying wrong, wrong. what's she wrong about >> false that used to be the case emerging markets in the brick era, which was the autos decade. they were extremely levered to iron ore prices. that's no longer the case. when you look at the size and scope of their technology companies whether you're talk about 10% which trades on the pink chips here but it's a blue ship there these companies are enormous and have nothing to do nothing to do with the price of commodities.
we used to look at these things with the price of hard real assets that link has been broken for a long time. is no longer applicable and should not factor into your decisions. >> court, yours. >> there are certain institutional investors and certain folks that cannot invest in non-u.s. stocks i, josh, like you, can tell clients that trade globally in over 80 markets across the globe but at the end of the day if you can't invest in those names, i love the multinational you talked about apple let's look at 50% of their sales coming from outside the u.s. let's look at coca-cola and starbucks and you want to play this reopening and you cannot buy alibaba directly or some of amd directly or some of the other names.
you can't buy some of these chinese companies directly and put them into your portfolio, buy the u.s. to garner the access to it use that as an opportunity to play on those reopenings starbuc starbucks. >> let's talk more about one of those multinationals sarah has a news alert on coca-cola. perfectly timed for us >> coca-cola is getting into the alcohol business in the united states it's launching hard seltzer but the explosive growth we have seen in hard seltzers. this is coming next year it will be first launched in latin america.
potentially another growth avenue here for coca-cola chasing what is the drink of the summer i think it was the drink of is um summer last year locw calorie and low alcohol. >> stock ticking up a bit on news you're delivering to us thank you so much. >> i like themanagement team a company you normally would say could just sit back on their laurels that's thinking about growth, thinking about
creativity we are going to have to face this reality, are we not of our response to the virus from the outset has put us into the position where we are now relative to some of these other economies that others on the panel are suggesting maybe a better bet now than the s&p 500. that's not likely to go away any time soon, is it >> depends where you are josh said nasdaq has done well it will continue to do well. he talks about emerging markets. i don't disagree with having exposure out there comes down to the question of china. econo china has the technology sure there's some companies there but it's going to be dominated by financials. other economies, other markets don't have the technology. it's not wrong, wrong wrong. it's a focus on china versus u.s. it's nothing wrong with being the big companies in china i've sued some of the small
companies in china you have to be aware it's not investing in the u.s alibaba's accounting may be better than the others i own it at tend he end of the day it's chinese company. >> you think should buy one of the emerging market etfs based on what josh has said today and the reality of whether our economy is relative to others. >> italy and france are already slowing. we'll see the other slow from the lift off qualcomm, we'll talk about it later. why is it today?
they all had a great deal with huwei. i can give you every deal and show you how they get business >> let's do this >> let's get more on qualcomm now. >> all trading higher after earnings expectations. let's start first with paypal. the company reported an 86% rise in profits with overall payment volumes up 30% paypay offering up daet. paypay is up more than 75% now to qualcomm, also beat on the top and bottom lines. it has positive commentary about chip sales to 5g devices also helping the stock the company announced a new licensing agreement and
you'll see the costs go up for retailers. you'll see the costs go up for amazon those margins will get heard because somebody has got to pay the piper. china is a manufacturer and buyer in the world >> i want to get a comment -- sorry to interrupt you i want to get a comment before i go to break. p paypal >> it's our largest position we owned it for years. it was a phenomenal quarter. what's most interesting about company like paypay and there are a few others is their business is better than it would have been if there had been no coronavirus. if you looked at the estimate, the end of 2019 and then what
the estimates and the guidance are today, they are nicely ahead of those numbers many more clients, new accounts. venmo has grown like crazy this is a perfect environment. we love this stock i know it's way up but we still think it's great >> good stuff. when we come back, target hit with the only sell rating on the street some of our folks own it as well pete will join us for a debate in our call of the day you can watcorisn uh ltetos live on the go halftime is back right after this
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welcome back, everybody. here is your cnbc news update at this hour. three former u.s. presidents among the speakers at today's funeral for congressman and civil rights icon john lewis barack obama will deliver the eulogy bill clinton said lewis got into good trouble but calmed a will the of troubled waters and george w. bush sounded a note of
yu unity. >> we the people, including congressmen and presidents, can have differing views on how to perfect our union while sharing the conviction that our nation, however flawed, is at heart a good and noble one >> senate majority leader mitch mcconnell telling reporters the presidential election will take place as planned on november 3rd. in his word, it's quote set in stone, end quote they are trying to tamp down the controversy generated by president trump's tweet this morning suggesting a delay because trump thinks mail in voting will lead to widespread fraud. you are up to date that's the news update, scott, back do you. >> appreciate that our call today slaps the only sell rating on target.
>> i do not think it's the right call if you need it today, guess what you're going to do, you're going to order it on your phone and driver up and pull outside of target someone nice and friendly will bring that out it's going to be something they will continue to gifrt a profit on in the years ahead. >> i'm going to have to talk the devil's advocate side of thing and read from the notes. mkm does not believe the online
audience monetization to offset store concerns foot traffic underpnchs related to covid and offering more competing retail options >> i read the report and thought it was okay but i disagree with it target, you can't look at the history because cornell hasn't been there for the entire history. take that out. number two, i don't recall ever buyi ining other selling a stoc based upon a yelp rating >> there are a will the of other
reasons. there aren't that many strong retailers out there. when dar den comes along, it's going to be target i'm feeling very one with courtney today we're agreeing a lot let's keep her on the program. no more levanthal. >> she's probably feeling bad about that i want to get to pete. kayla has breaking news for us >> the united states senate has
failed to advance a supplement to state unemployment insurance. senate democrats led by chuck schumer objected to. they tried to pass their version of the stimulus package called the heroes act which house democrats passed in may. that's expected to fail as well. they said they are nowhere near a deal as the enhanced unemployment benefits for millions of americans are set to run out at the end of this week >> appreciate the update we'll follow it and see if there's a market reaction in the hours ahead. let's bring in pete. i want to talk to you about this call you know it. that's why you're smiling the way you are.
>> when he talks about an aging store fleet that spent $7 billion committing to upgrade all the stores i don't understand that at all i think there are other areas as well you look at the digital side of things walmart had a great quarter last quarter. they were up 74% on the digital side amazon was up 26%. target was up 141% you look at ship which was up 280% there's a lot of different things going on here when you think about it, during the early parts of the pandemic when a lot of folks were closed and there was limited in terms of what people could buy, where they could go, target was selling the low margin side of things if they can do what i think they can which is convert some of those folks into people that will come back to store, not just for the essentials, not just for the groceries
maybe they get shirt, kitchen items. kitchen ie semis in the last couple movants up about 25% of sales. when i look at this, it just dupts sort of add up i think what you're seeing today in the market itself look at the reaction of the stock. it's not reacting as a stock that has a sell put it on today in market that was down 500 plus points earlier it just doesn't make sense to me right now, scott >> i hear you. look at the stock pretrial conference over thr-- performan three months in a year and i'm just kidding with you. >> i know. >> why is target up so much more than walmart >> a lot of them saying i like walmart over target. i would say when you look at walmart at the time, it was trading 120 there are a share. it's trading in multiple of the 20s. at target, when it was trading in the 80s and toward 100, we're talking about multiples and just the multil alone made me sigh why isn't target the better buy here
eventually, they did catch up. they caught up now now they are very close in terms of p/e the difference is they have better growth, bigger growth and fact their margins will be better it's not 51% or more roceries. target has five different quadrants. 20% each that's been the goal to be a company that can lean on the weakness sometimes of some of their different categories when they can lean on the strength, sometimes of the others. it's still chaet >> good stuff. thanks for coming on i had to get your take on target our next guest now has been with us throughout the pandemic. he's back today calling this a once in a lifetime opportunity for debt investors
once in a lifetime opportunity those are big words. what does it mean? >> it's the opportunity to end up investing at multiples that are really cheap and the reason it's once in a lifetime is simply because everything else from the economy, when you rook at the banks and you look at the system is actually doing well. the questions that will when are companies going to have to be back to normal we think that's all happen ng a year the risks are low. the opportunities great. >> where is the greatest of those opportunities now within your universe? >> they are everywhere where you really, have huge opportunities on the airline side on the energy side on the retail side we ended up investing in
jcpenney at a pretty low price. it's one of the largest airlines in the united states we're bound by confidential agreements i can't tell you the name of the airline. we ended up buying ten planes from them. i would have told you before covid, if we had done a deal like that, we would have made 5 or 6%. today we're making about 15, 16% on a current basis we bought the planes and turned around and leased them right back we're seeing more of those opportunities where you can get a current between 15 to 18% because people need liquidity.
they're either going to get it from the capital markets or get it from people like me >> this airline, they need capital. they come to somebody like you it's interesting they would -- they go to credit investor like you rather than the capital markets. i'm wondering what that says about the environment that we're in as other airlines have tapped the capital markets. >> i think what it says is they are tapping the capital markets but all airlines want is liquidity. they will tap the capital markets for what they can and then start selli ining assets for us we'll own the plane and lease it back. you don't have a pool of assets. you own something. for airlines, it's far better for them to have that liquidity because when people come back, the airlines will do fine but
they've got to last until people come back. >> what's the latest -- what's happening in china with your businesses there are you still doing the lending there? how is that progressing as we see their economy reopening in magnitude that we're not quite at yet. >> it's going great. it's going well. throughout the world, people need capital they need money. if they have access to the banks, we could charge what we need because people want that capital. things in asia have turned and looks like things are getting better.
>> do you think this will go off without a hitch? >> i do. i think it's very different. i think for basketball to get into the bubble, you had to test negative and the players already there. you have to be quarantined and you can only come out of quarantine when you get another negative test. i have to take -- i already took a test i have to take another test. even then, you go to the arena and you can't meet with players. you can't meet with coaches. it will be sitting in 20th row and everybody has to wear a mask the nba is pretty serious. i think adam has done a phenomenal job of making sure everybody is safe. >> that's pretty incredible.
>> i come in through a separate entrance and i've got to stay 40 feet apart, 50 feet apart. the nba is very serious about this so far, it's worked. there's been zero cases. hopefully that will continue so far so good >> we wish you well. we certainly hope it goes off well major league baseball pushing on despite what's happening with the miami marlins. swoo we'll see how that progresses. >> i'm excited to play for the season to start tonight and for us to play and hopefully start our way to a championship. >> we'll check in with you next week i want to find out how this goes and where we go from here. thank you so much. >> we'll talk to you soon. next, we're following some
welcome back steve cohen point 72 is closing new money. leslie picker following the money for us >> scott, that's right including cohen's own money, that brings the total assets under management to just over $17 billion. raking in $10 billion in a few years is a fete for any manager in an industry that's seen far more capital than in recent
years. pleasing guilty to insider trading. $2 billion fine. cohen himself was barred until 2018 when he was finally free to start raising outside capital again many wandered whether the reputational damage would prevent certain investors from forking over their money he was able to rebuild a hedge fund that surpassed that of sac at its peak. now it's up to performance point 72 is up about 4% through the year in june surpassing the s&p which was down about 4% over that time scott. >> thank you steve, reputations go a long way especially when it comes to managing money and being good at it >> yeah. without a doubt. you may ask why would steve want to manage money again when you
see a lot like david temper going to more of a family off. the difference is steve had about 1,000 people working for him with 14 million and others like dave had less than 40 people work for him at his take of 20 billion. steve doesn't want to pay the freight to keep those people there. why would i venvestors want to invest there's scarcity impact to it. i know when i spoke to middle east investors, they never wanted to take their money out i'm sure you have a lot that came in. that's why steve is doing well i guess he will continue to do well with returns. >> yeah. your point is well taken you do have a lot of people, a lot of very big names who have left the industry. if you're still there and have a proven track record and willing to manage other people's money, the money will flow into you >> absolutely. absolutely
he's been doing it a long time done well at it for a long time. he paid a fine a civil fine that's how people look at it returns trump some reputational issues >> yeah. no doubt crude prices are slipping today. looking at those now we'll talk about that with thata futures trade on energy straight ahead. we're back in just two minutes ea experience the joy of a bigger world in a highly-connected lexus vehicle at the golden opportunity sales event. lease the 2020 es 350 for $359 a month for 36 months. experience amazing at your lexus dealer. you can take a personal assessment to get a customized plan. the assessment takes into account the things that matter to you the most. i've lost 101 pounds. it's incredible. join now, pay later. get your first three months free.
it's tethered to 40. last month we saw that, and i have a stop at $38 this is a 2 to 1 risk/reward ratio. there's three reasons why we want to be a buyer of crude oil. u.s. dollar weakness is really attracting assets, and i know it's tough to be globally, but there's still demand therefore, i think we see a lot of retracted assets. >> jeff kill burg thank you. we have final trades after this break.
i'm hoping nobody's paying attention, because they're so focused on alphabet and amazon shake shack has not been a great stock to hold through the earnings for some reason they have not been able to impress anyone. i think what's key is the digital transformation in terms of the app and plans for more drive-thrus, which i think will become essential, no matter when we get a vaccine all right. we'll hear from you on the other side of that let's do final trades. courtney, you're up first. >> well, i think i have again toll and uber, how about a financial today with goldman sachs. if you need to be in the financial space, and you're looking for a place to high, have no fear, the investment banks and asset managers, and if you didn't get in and caught that big pop, wait for october >> a place to hide in the financials wow.
>> well, people are so scared of them right now. >> for good reason. >> i know. >> with volatility it's been a -- >> quickly, carrie, just a name. >> waste connection. >> weiss. >> spo reports tonight. >> josh? >> mastercard. that does it for us. kelley, it's all yours. plus an exercise in futili futility that's what las vegas sands' president says about running a big resort on the strip right now, but they're paying their workers through october. we'll speak with president rob goldstein about all of that. the home trade is