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tv   Squawk Box  CNBC  October 26, 2020 6:00am-9:00am EDT

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stocks it is the 26th, in fact. it's a monday. year is 2020 "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ ♪ good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. this morning on this monday morning we're checking out the futures. joe mentioned, markets are under pressure this morning. pick your poison on this looking at futures lately tends to be your average chest dow is indicated down by 312 points s&p futures are down by 40 points and the nasdaq is off by 117. you could say this is because of the rising covid cases both here in and in europe you could say it's because of the election firming up trying to figure out what's going to happen with that
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you could blame the stalled stimulus talks or say it's earnings season. we have gotten a few doozies this morning including what we heard from s.a.p if you look what's happening in the oil markets, this morning oil prices are down, too, under severe pressure. wti is down by 2.6% and brent is off by 2.5%. that might very well be because of the concerns about additional lockdowns coming in europe that we heard overnight when you start to think about a crimp on the economy that that could pose, that could explain what you're seeing at least in the oil markets. andrew ♪ thanks, becky. speaking of which let's talk about the developing story a record number of new covid cases in parts of the united states the country posting now more than 83,000 new infections both friday and saturday led by outbreaks in sun belt states meantime, europe also dealing with a resurgence of its own italy now ordering bars to close early and its shutting public gyms spain issuing nationwide curfews
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and france reporting a record daily rise in new infections nbc's matt bradley joins us live from paris with the latest matt >> reporter: hey, andrew so here in france, of course, we've been having curfews from every night from 9:00 p.m. to 6:00 a.m. the following day. nevertheless, we just saw the highest number by far of any new cases per day. more than 50,000 new cases remember, this is almost as much as the 80,000 new cases you're seeing setting records in the u.s., but the u.s. is 5 or 6 times the size of france so here this second wave is being felt quite acutely especially here in france as you mentioned in spain, a state of alarm, in italy, new measures that would see a similar sort of curfew situation to right here and in poland the leader of poland just became the latest head of state to announce on sunday that he was infected with the coronavirus. and we keep seeing this over and over again so, we're really seeing throughout the entire continent here in europe this tension
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between leaders who want to try to arrest the spread of this virus and the deadly implications they're seeing in the next couple of weeks and those who really want to make sure that the economy doesn't suffer the way it did at the height of the crisis back in spain. here in france, hospitalizations are increasing and a lot of doctors are warning that we're going to start to see the deaths increasing after that. but so far this has been mostly about positive cases and new positive tests this hasn't been as much of a story as it was back in the spring about deaths and very severe hospitalizations but experts say stay tuned that tragedy is yet to come and bite again in the next couple of weeks. andrew >> hey, matt, can you speak to the public attitude f you will, about some of the precautionary measures people should be taking whether it be masking or whether it be social distancing or people are getting together either in big or small groups in france and throughout europe i ask simply because we're all
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in the united states contending with this now that the weather is getting colder and people are having to make decisions about whether they're going to go inside with others and whatnot >> reporter: yeah. that's a really good question. of course in europe it's not nearly aspoliticized as it is in the states. whether or not you wear a mask, it's a universal regulation in major cities i have to wear a mask outside in paris. you see that throughout the continent. it's not a signal of whether or not you're supporting a republican or democrat it's what you're supposed to do. most people are abiding by the rules but you're no longer seeing what you were back in the spring with people on their ball con nis playing instruments and clapping and all that thing. there's no enthusiasm anymore. people are sick and tired of these lockdowns. that's why these governments are engaging in half measures. these curfews still aren't nearly as thorough as the full scale lockdowns they saw in the
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spring they're really, really trying to avoid that and it's a cap collation some are willing to take some sacrifices in terms of illness and human life to save an economy they don't feel like can go into a double dip recession once again andrew >> matt, with everybody as you're saying masked up, can you speak to what they're ascribing this recent outbreak to? here in the united states and i know it has been politicized in the united states, part of the argument has been if we were masked up, oftentimes it's compared to asia, if people were masked like they were in asia, we wouldn't have the kind of rise in covid, but if you're saying that everybody is masked up in europe and they're seeing it, that's going to raise different questions. >> reporter: yeah. here is the thing. it's hard to know exactly. a lot of the doctors say -- even the doctors who really want to see very strict measures in order to stop the spread of the virus, they have been telling me that the mask thing it's not scientifically sound
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it's not necessary wearing masks indoors, in taxi cabs n trains, in offices and restaurants and things like that, that is necessary. and that will stop the spread of the virus. walking around on city streets like that i could be fined if i don't have a mask on most scientists say that's not strictly necessary it's more of expression of political, it's an expression of collective responsibility rather than a real scientific imperative so, why is it that the cases keep surging to such high levels despite the fact that erb verybody is weari mask, i'm not a scientist. that's hard to know. this second wave is not taking on the same proportions of deaths versus hospitalizations as the first wave in the spring and a lot of scientists are stumped by this. trying to figure out why and what that means for other countries like the u.s. who are still a little less further along in their second wave guys >> matt, we appreciate your
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reporting this morning we wish you guys as much luck as you possibly can have. we know we'll be talking to you, i imagine, for better or worse as this progresses thanks >> reporter: indeed. thank you, guys. cheers coming up, we'll get back to the other stuff that we do here at cnbc and that is earnings get ready for the busiest week yet of earning season. what should investors be watching first as we head to break, check out this morning's biggest dow winners and losers stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc at calvert, we know responsible investing is hard.
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talk to your financial advisor about investing responsibly i decided that i wanted to go for electrical engineering and you need to go to college for that. if i didn't have internet in the home i would have to give up more time with my kids. which is the main reason i left the military. everybody wants more for their kids, but i feel like with my kids, they measurably get more than i ever got. and i get to do that. i get to provide that for them.
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a.m. eastern time. we'll talk to him also what's happening with the economy joe? >> thanks, becky. shares of s.a.p. getting pounded in europe this morning in their worst intraday drop since 1999 company warning it will take longer than expected to recover from the impact of the pandemic, saying that new lockdowns additionally will hamper demand through the first half of the year s.a.p. drop pressuring the broader german dax, but that is quite a haircut there down almost 20% andrew >> okay. joining us right now to talk about the markets and to explain perhaps the best way that investors should be looking at individual companies right now is greg branch, partner at 1847 financial. good morning to you, greg. >> good morning. >> we're all trying to make some sense of this. you're watching the markets under pressure this morning. as becky said, you could ascribe so very many reasons for that. that could be the covid outbreak we're seeing both here in the
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united states and abroad and could be oil prices which of course are correlated to that to some degree and it could be the elections. what do you think andwhat do you do about it right now? >> i think the same factors are still driving as we talked about last time i was on your show and that is in the short-term the market is going to pay attention to where we are with stimulus where we are with the election and where we are with the vaccine and therapeutics as we look at the earnings coming up this week and throughout the third quarter, what would be more important than the actual number is the guidance and we saw that this morning with s.a.p and so it brought the market down because it suggested that businesses were putting off spending a year or two from where they thought they would spend and the amounts they thought they would spend so the earnings reports will be particularly important insofar as they give us aview into wha 2021 looks obviously the fourth quarter will be important. but we'll soon be past these catalysts, these potentially
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negative catalysts that we've been talking about and we'll start to focus on 2021 earnings and what we can get in terms of information or insight from these earnings reports will be critically important >> you've said there is no lasting tail wind to this recovery what do you mean by that >> so, what i specifically said is we should look for companies that don't have a structural lasting tail wind. when i go to parse my portfolio, when i go to parse my client's portfolios what i'm looking far into 2021 those that gained a structural advantage versus those that will return to a baseline of 2019 or maybe even lower. and so, lots of companies were positioned to succeed in the work from home environment, but was that lasting that's the question we have to ask ourselves. do they deserve the multiple they're currently str lly tradig at there's no shortage of companies when we return to a
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new normal won't be able to put up the results they put up this year while others, like the e-retailers experienced a structural shift, a structural tail wind that will allow them to put up 100% plus earnings growth over the next couple of years. that's what we're looking for to support -- >> tell me how you're going to decipher the difference -- tell me how you're going to decipher the difference because some people would argue that the e-retailers i don't know if they would go back to where they were in 2019, but that if the world were to go to any kind of post pandemic hopeful sense of normalcy, people might go back to brick and mortar shops occasionally and the same might be said of a zoom or some of the big tech companies that have had a lot of success during this period sure their success has been accelerated during this period, but what happens afterwards? >> right and i think you're right this is the test there's some that are easier than others to pinpoint and say, well, we might not be spending
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as much as paint when we're not stuck at home and we might not be spending as much on flooring. there's easy ones to decipher and harder ones. when you talk about the e retailers they were growing their penetration at 1% is per year in december of 2019 we saw that penetration at 19% now it's close to 30%. and just seven months later with something that had been growing at only 1% per year. so, you're probably right. not all of that may be lasting, but what we have to do as investors and prognosticators is pick out things we don't think will revert to an as-is form before we saw the structural change. >> but what about what might be described i don't know if you call them value plays but some of the cyclicals, underloved companies that have been just crushed during this period i'm even thinking frankly of the airlines which are about as unloved as you can imagine but in a post pandemic world, you would like to think that they're going to get back on
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their feet now, maybe there's not the same kind of business travel at least immediately and potentially forever. i know people say that as well but how do you think about that relative to where their stock trades today >> yeah. i think this is no less an exercise in one's convictions to be honest. just like we talked about parsing those who have a lasting advantage versus those who don't. when we look on the value side of things, i would divide it into two buckets as well those who we know what their business model will look like next year and those we just don't. so when you talk about the airlines, when you talk about cruises, when you talk about hospital -- other areas of hospitality, some of the business models we don't know what they're going to look like in 2021. they don't know what they're going to look like in 2021 as evidenced by lack of guidance, as evidenced by the ceos just saying that to us. so there is value with more predictable -- go ahead.
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>> greg -- joe >> this is worrisome this trail market despite high yields it's just a fact and i understand momentum and i understand you jump on board and stay at home and all that stuff. but unless you think that these 3, 4, 5% yielders -- unless you think the dividends aren't safe, it would seem like a decent place for the less volatile part of your portfolio, if you didn't want to be just totally in tech or totally in sort of momentum stocks and the only reason you wouldn't is either you think rates are going to go up quickly, maybe you do maybe you don't. or that this second wave or something causes a weaker economy which makes the dividends not safe what do you think -- why aren't these dividend stocks doing better, greg >> so, i think that that's been part of value just underperforming all together, joe, to be honest.
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you know, they -- the dividend producing stocks weren't necessarily well positioned to deliver us the growth in 2020 in our work from home and stay at home environments. but i think you're right a lot of that value is poised for a significant rebound in 2021 and not only can you have just a healthy dividend, but you can get that in combination with triple digit earnings growth, discount to historical multiples if you parse carefully and so some of the sectors where you can get all three of those things will be financials. there are some sectors in consumer discretionary where you can get all three of those things let's look at the casinos. those that are leveraged to asia started to evidence a pretty healthy rebound. and we expect in 2021 they'll go from a negative to over $3 a share in profit as well as $3 a share in dividend in a couple of cases. so, the exercise is much the same look for the value look for the earnings growth in
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2021 and in many cases you'll get the dividend in addition >> can i just point out one other potential idea with that, though, dividends could be stocks that have heavy dividends could be under pressure because of the idea that if biden wins election and if he can get things through the senate, that the tax on dividends could go up significantly next year, too >> right and i don't want to discount that, but that then gets us into the argument of how much has the market already anticipated a biden victory? and if that's the case, i think that we've done a lot of the rationalization of not only a higher dividend tax rate but a higher corporate tax rate in general. >> greg, we appreciate you joining us as always always look forward to these conversations and look forward to the next one as well. thanks. >> always a pleasure thanks, guys. >> you bet still to come this morning,
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invest in you. surprising statistics on how many americans don't have a will and why having one is more important than ever. first though as we head to a break, check out this morning's biggest nasdaq movers. stay tuned, everybody. you're watching "squawk box" right here on cnbc ♪ everyone wakes up every morning to a world that must keep turning. moving. going. the world can't stop, so neither can we. because the things we make, help make the world go round.
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♪ ♪ ♪ welcome back to "squawk box. let's look at the futures. not a 3 anymore but a 2, 294, close to it. 294 points now down of pressure down on the dow now. the s&p indicated off 36 or so
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and the nasdaq down triple digits down 107. a lot of it, i guess, because of virus worries, beck. >> death tolls surge once again in parts of the country. a dilemma facing many of americans what will happen to hair lives and legacies if they don't have a will and other estate planning documents. cnbc senior personal finance correspondent tells us how the family of a famous movie actor is now trying to figure that out. >> reporter: black panther movie star chadwick boseman lost his long battle with kangser two months ago moch now his wife must contend with courts to determine what happens to at least part of his estate. >> you work your whole life to accumulate your property, you want to make sure that it goes to the people you care about >> reporter: that may not happen without a will boseman died without one leaving nearly $939,000 in his
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estate in what's known as probait. a legal process that distributes assets after death a new survey shows the majority of americans, 62%, don't have a will and 27% of those who do said they got it because they were afraid of death or serious illness related to covid-19. if you're critically ill, as this attorney points out, a will is not the only key document you will need. >> no matter how much or how little you're worth, you need a health care power of attorney, living will, other financial directives to make sure that your wishes are carried out if you become incapacitated but don't necessarily pas away right away. >> reporter: now the cost of these documents can vary widely. having an attorney create a comprehensive estate plan could cost several thousand dollars but you could go online and do a basic will for less than 100
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bucks. becky. >> sharon, these are big questions that a lot of people face, but if you think you really are ready to have a basic will, what do you need to have ready? what documents, what thought process? >> reporter: well, the thought process is key you have to figure out who you want to be doing key things in your life. who do you want to have as your beneficiaries? who do you want to be the executor of the will to decide where to help execute where things are going to go who do you want as guardians for your children? and then you want to make some specific arrangements about where assets are placed and where they should go so all of those things are things to think about, talk about, write down and talk to the people that you want to give these designations to to make sure that they're equipped with knowing how to do it, too. >> where can you go if you want legal help to get an estate planning done? >> reporter: well, the best place to go is to talk to your family, friends, colleagues, and your financial adviser and get some recommendations perhaps from them on who they may have
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used as an estate planning attorney there are also a couple organizations, traders os like the american council for trust and state counsels as well as looking at the national association for estate planners. those are two organizations that you can look at. we have a lot more information about this on in you, places you can go the bottom line is, becky, you have to do it. it's such an important thing that you can actually control. >> it is it's hard to make decisions like that but harder if you don't make them. sharon, something a lot of people are thinking about. great to see you this morning. we should note that nbc universal and comcast ventures are both investors in acorns andrew coming up when we return, we have dr. scott got loeb will be with us to talk about the rising covid cases both here in the united states and across the pond u'un ted yore watching "squawk box" right here on cnbc
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♪ good morning one more check of equity futures about where we last looked down
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300 on the dow nasdaq triple digits almost 110 points and 37 on the s&p take a quick look at treasury yields we'll see whether there's been any down ticking in the yield as oil has been a little bit weak maybe a little .81% and the aforementioned oil prices big drop. but then again we were back solidly at one point above 40. now we're back below 39, down about 2 1/4% andrew >> okay. got some headlines to tell you about. china says it will be imposing sanctions on u.s. companies participating in u.s. arm sales to taiwan according to a foreign ministry spokesman at a news conference in beijing earlier today. the names mentioned include the following -- lockheed martin, boeing and raytheon. dunkin' brands in talks to go private. company confirming it has
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helped -- held now preliminary talks to be acquired by inspire brands reports put the price at $106.50, 20% premium to dunken's closing price inspires the owner of other well known chains including arby's, jimmy johns, buffalo wild wings and sonic and that story was broken by deal book over the weekend by lauren hersh nice little story. becks? >> thanks andrew. the u.s. reported 8.5 million covid cases and 225,000 deaths, that's according to johns hopkins university data. in terms of the global totals, we're talking 42.7 million cases and 1.2 million deaths joining us is dr. scott gottlieb, serves on the boards of illumina and pfizer his latest op-ed winter is coming time for a mask mandate dr. got loeb, let's take a look at the markets being down this
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morning. it might be in part because of these new lockdowns that europe is considering and actually taking into place in some of these countries. we spoke with someone in france earlier today describing how 50,000 cases a day is much bigger than it would be here because they've got maybe a fifth or sixth of the population of what we have in the united states so it's really got them in the throes of things right now is that where you think we're headed a in the point? >> i do. and you're seeing hospitalizations accelerate as well in europe so their healthcare systems are starting to get pressed. we're going to have a dense epidemic and we're at a tipping point where if we took aggressive targeted steps we could fore stall the worst of it we're not going to do that i understand why there's a lot of fatigue set-in and lot of policy resistance to taking strong action ahead of the spread so we're likely to see a very dense epidemic i think we're right now at the cusp of what's going to be exponential spread in parts of the country. you're starting to see certain
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states and cities react because the epidemics are more dense in texas you saw action. el paso, utah is building field hospital wisconsin has done that. you are starting to see reaction, but it will take more before we start to see broader-based policy changes that are going to ultimately turn the tide on the spread. >> there was a huge political dust storm over the weekend mark meadows said we can't control this virus there was pushback not only from joe biden but also from some republican senators as well. what is this in terms of linguistics? what can we do what should we do? how would you describe and get the middle of that fray? >> look, i think the experience in the south, the governors in the south arguably reacted late but ultimately took policy steps and took targeted mitigation, closing bars, restaurants, congregate settings like that. they didn't have a broad based stay-at-home order, shut down all business activity. you saw people pull back, google mobility data started to decline
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once the epidemic got dense and started to see mask mandates get put in place and adherence to masking started to increase. that combined with a lot of spread in the south. so you did have a higher positivity rate and there was pretty diffuse spread. the rate of transfer started to decline. that combination was enough to turn the tide in those epidemics. i think there is a recipe where you can allow the economy to function, allow businesses to stay open but you take targeted mitigation steps to close certain venues or put in place curfews to close bars where you know there's going to be a lot of spread. you ask people to wear masks and you can impose a mandate without imposing penalties at least on a first offense. you can ask businesses to enforce mask requirements in indoor congregate settings and appeal to the public instead of going shopping three times a week, do it once see mobility data start to decline, you know that's a pretty good indication that there's some change in behavior that's going to have an affect on continued spread. we have one more cycle to get
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through with this. people are exhausted it's been very hard on families and on individuals, on businesses especially. but we really have two or three months of the acute phase of this pan dem toik gdemic to get the hardest phase. we need to pull together and see what we can do to control the spread once we reach that breaking point of healthcare systems overcome, the policy action we need to take will be more aggressive than if we did things up front. >> doctor, i have two questions for you, one relates to masks. the reporter that we were speaking to in france in paris was saying that they have a mandate to wear masks and yet the numbers continue to rise there. what do you ascribe that to? >> well, i don't know what their adherence looks like there masks are debatable over in europe just like they become contentious issue here in the u.s. remember that masks are designed primarily to prevent people who are asymptomatic or presymptomatic from spreading the virus. so we know that you have a mask
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on and you're contagious but don't know you're contagious, you don't have symptoms you're less likely to dispel the respiratory droplets that can cause other people around you to become infected but can also protect you but in that case, if you want to derive protection from the masks, you need to wear a higher quality mask. cloth masks are 10 to 30% protective if you're wearing a cotton mask, thickness matters and cotton masks with polyester embedded in them will be more protective level 2 or 3 procedure masks or surgical masks is 60%, n95 is 95% protective or better you want to derive protection from other individuals you need to wear a higher quality mask. it's a shame where we still don't have enough n95 masks to give them to high risk individuals. people who are essential workers. but they are accessible in consumer chain, they're just pricey >> doctor, my other question is
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you mentioned several times today and in the past that when it comes to this second or third wave that we're now talking about that we still have two o three more months to go. we're about to enter november. why is it only two or three more months is that because you're convinced that we have the vaccine and therapeutics on the other side is that because it will burn itself out what's the thinking in terms of the timing >> well, it's not the vaccine. i don't think we're going to have a vaccine or therapeutic that will change the contours of what we're entering into right now. it's partly a combination of a lot of people are going to get infected it will to some degree burn itself out, but also as you get mounting levels of infection, you do get a policy response and you get a consumer response. so once the epidemic gets dense enough in certain cities people will stop going out and will stop going to bars and restaurants. they're going to be more judicious with congregate settings and wear masks more
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aggressively that's a natural life cycle if you will to an epidemic as it sweeps through a population. we're likely to see that's what happened in spring it's what happened in the summer when it became epidemic in the south. we're likely to see the same thing. it happens in the flu season, there's a peak and it comes down the epidemic curve the less we take mitigation steps, the less we do to prevent spread the more acute that phase will be, the shorter it will be but also the sharper it's going to be and the more health care systems are going to get pressed. >> scott, we -- actually -- i don't know if we call it great fanfare but did talk about this two pauses in the vaccine trials with a lot of -- get a lot of time to that so both of them have been restarted at this point? are we back to full force on what is it four or five the testing going on shouldn't we mention that? or at least be positive about that or not?
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>> the ast zen sa and j & j have restarted. two vaccines furthest along that should hopefully if everything goes well and the trials read out and are positive, could be available in 2020 on a limited basis. the pfizer vaccine and moderna vaccine. the challenge there is that even if those vaccines become available this year, it will be later in the year and remember they're two-dose vaccines. then you have to wait a week or two until the immunity kicks won't look at the first tranche of patients, elderly patients and healthcare workers actually having protected immunity from the vaccines until february of 2021, maybe march. >> but better than paused any way. >> right >> the other thing, scott, sit a delay we're seeing now in deaths that we saw before cases move up, hospitalizations move up and then unfortunately we see deaths move up. or are therapeutics and just i guess knowing more about how to
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deal with the disease, will that keep us below previous mortality rates? is there anything positive there? or we're just waiting for the deaths to catch up with the hospitalizations >> well, the deaths are going to start to rise, but the antibody drugs should be coming on the market they're going to have an effect. we have seen dramatic gains in hospital mortality cut at least in half. the vaccines won't be available are available in 2021. this is largely a 2020 event we have two or three more months to go and they'll be difficult months but you will see the crude mortality go down. the challenge is there could be a lot more infection heading into the fall and winter more than even though we're doing a much better job preserving life, the death rate, the number of deaths is going to go above 1,000 on a seven-day moving average for certain just because the number of infections are higher we're not feeling it that much right now. it doesn't feel like it did in the spring or the summer because the epidemics aren't isolated in
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one region they're diffused across the country. every part of the country has a medium amount of infection instead of one part of the country really being inundated with exceptions of zern states south dakota, north dakota the they're a little early phase of this. but you'll see pretty diffuse infection across the country and a lot of places are going to reach very high levels of infection. that's what it looks like. that's why this is probably going to be a difficult couple of months. >> scott, one thing we didn't mention yet this morning that i think is important is an ft story talking about the oxford vaccine. they've been testing it in older individuals, which is obviously pretty important not all the vaccines are being tested in older people, but that's the population it hits the hardest what they found is that there's a robust immune response to that vaccine. i guess that's good news they still have to wait to make sure that it's safe and effective. but you want to make sure you're able to get that sort of response, right?
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>> yeah. and the phase 1, phase 2 data on all the vaccines show that it was generating a robust response in older individuals, not as robust in younger individuals but the represumption enough antibody protection to offer immunity we should turn the cards over on the pivotal trials this month there should be data accruing a good indication how well these vaccines work. there's a lot of expectation they will work i'm optimistic but we won't know until we learn how effective they are >> dr. gottlieb, alms good to see you and appreciate the run down on monday morning a lot of news to catch up on. >> thanks a lot. when we come back, american airlines is planning customer tours of some of its planes in coming weeks we'll tell you why next. ♪ at calvert, we know responsible investing is hard.
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making headlines this morning, american airlines planning for customer tours of the boeing 737 max and calls with its pie lots in the coming weeks to boost confidence, that's the effort in the plane. the max was grounded, of course, worldwide more than a year and a half ago cnbc has learned american is planning to start flights with employees after thanksgiving it's also offering some customers a chance to see the
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aircraft in person at airports, including at dallas ft. worth and also see it at newark laguardia and in miami coming up, a lot more on "squawk box" this morning. there's some of the drug names we talk about every morning and they're playing a big fight against covid. so why aren't there stocks trading higher levels on so many positive news? we'll talk about with a biotech analyst from bank of america merrill lynch right after the break. as business moves forward, we're all changing the way things get done. like how we redefine collaboration... how we come up with new ways to serve our customers... and deliver our products. but no matter how things change, one thing never will... you can rely on the people and the network of at&t...
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it's the busiest week of earnings season. among the names to watch, some high profile pharma companies, including merck, pfizer and eli lilly. joining us jeff meacham, bank of america securities biopharmaceuticals research analy analyst. i can figure out why maybe these stocks are being held back a little, but i'd like you to elucidate the key things here. i don't know how many you make on vaccines, number one. i don't know when you have a republican presidential candidate saying he wants to lower prices 50 to 70% by reimporting price controlled drugs, that's your best -- i mean, that's the republican. that's the hands off republican. i don't know what joe biden would do, but i think it's tough to be in the pharmaceutical business right now, isn't it >> yeah, i agree, joe, and good morning. that's exactly right i'd say there's probably a one or two-turn multiple that's being reflected in the larger
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cap biotechs and even the major pharmas. it just relates to political risk, honestly. it doesn't really matter what the party looks like, the landscape looks like i think there is some momentum in trying to tweak drug prices in some form of fashir fashion. i think it is assumed in these stocks i think that's probably what has been the biggest barrier over the past three months or so. >> is it middle men or both, and we use it a lot. it's not a golden goose, jeff. it's a goose that lays a golden egg. at least i don't think it's a golden goose we do have great innovation because they can price drugs where they need to be priced should we be happy if we slim margins to almost razor thin on some of these companies that are developing these life saving drugs? is that something we should be aspiring to do?
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>> yeah, great question. i don't think so i agree that we still have to reflect accurate prices, and i would say, you know, probably the pace of innovation has been breathtaking to be honest, over the past, you know, say five to even ten years i think that needs to still be, you know, validated, so i don't think taking prices down, you know, with a blunt instrument through policy is really the right way to do it, but i do think some of the older medicines, you know, late patent cycles quite easily probably on the docket, you know, for 2021 and beyond, and i could see that work >> which ones -- that used to be all we cared about was expirations and new drug development and what was on the horizon. >> right. >> and now there's so many other things that we think about if you were just to do it that way, who are your favorites? who are your holds, and are there any you'd sell >> i would say lily is our
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favorite by far. they have the youngest product cycle in the major pharma group, and they have some new data coming up on a really exciting new therapy called trezepithide. we have a report on that this morning. that is our favorite in the group. we also like bristol it's been a tougher stock just given the coming out of the cell gene merger, but they are launching, you know, eight drugs in the next say 12 to 18 months, and that's, you know, the -- sort of the i would say the poster child and one that we're not as favorable on, we're neutral rated is merck i think that one is just -- they have great innovation for keytruda, the growth looks fantastic, but the issue is, you know, what's the encore for investors, and investors have definitely been by far and away expecting each quarter a nice keytruda upside. >> all right, jeff, they spend a
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lot on advertising. >> that's right. >> anything i watch, you know, at night i want them all. i don't even know what they do i mean, people seem -- they're always together, the husband and the wife, they look happy. it just -- do you know what any of them -- am i supposed to ask my doctor to give them to me why are they advertising to me and not my doctor? what's the deal? >> yeah, it is a little weird how direct to consumer on some of these therapeutic categories. >> what's your favorite? o'sem pick what's that do for me? will i be happy? they use songs they use the worst songs to get it stuck in your head. >> that's right, everyone's smiling. >> i do like the one, the ed where they're in the side by side bathtubs on a beautiful mountain top, and then they take the drugs and then they're gone. i don't know where they are, but, you know, i have an idea. anyway, jeff, thanks >> you're welcome.
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thank you. >> we got to -- we can't kill the goose that laid the golden egg, and it seems like we're trying on both sides see you later, we'll have you back. >> thank you >> andrew. >> we've got a lot coming up, two big hours ahead, a big week also, we should say for big tech from congressional scrutiny to quarterly results. we're going to get ready for all of it with eiell wheeler, big two hours ahead in just a moment
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a cnbc exclusive, hasbro's brian goldner. >> "squawk on the street" 9:00 eastern. and watch or listen live on the cnbc app wall street waking up to more losses as u.s. and european covid cases surge to record levels investors also prepping for the busiest week of tech earnings. we've got facebook, amazon, apple and many others ready to report. a tax battle brewing between states over people working from home new hampshire's governor joins us to talk about his battle with massachusetts on the fight and the supreme court. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now ♪ good morning, and welcome to
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"squawk box" right here on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with becky quick and joe kernen. the implied open is lower, close to 300 points lower right now on the dow. the s&p 500 looking to open down about 36 points. nasdaq down about 105 points there's pressure on oil this morning. reports obviously of increased covid cases here in the united states and europe and even questions about lockdown so all of that, plus the election is going to be what investors are going to be watching joe. >> thanks, andrew. investors will be watching as you say, and waiting for additional fiscal stimulus news from washington. mike santoli is watching the market, but we begin with ylan mui and the latest in the stimulus talks, ylan, i'm mad at the messenger. next time they start telling you stuff, oh, yeah, just tell them you're sick of this crap you know what i mean aren't you i mean, here we are again.
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we're on ef dvery day saying th same stuff can you push back on them saying let's go stop giving my this crap. >> they're still talking so we are still covering it. house speaker nancy pelosi says she is expecting to get answers today from the white house on updated language on another coronavirus relief package the treasury secretary said there were significant differences remaining between the two sides. pelosi sent over a list of her concerns they were supposed to review it over the weekend, but it did become clear yesterday just how far apart they still are white house chief of staff mark meadows saying we're not going to control this pandemic pelosi meanwhile insisting we have to crush the virus, and accusing the white house of moving the goal post meanwhile, in the senate lawmakers there are simply moving on with the talks stalled they focused on advancing the nomination of amy coney barrett to the supreme court >> we're still in the middle of an unprecedented health care and
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economic crisis caused by this ongoing coronavirus pandemic, and i'm here to express my frustration that the sense of urgency and compromise that we had for the first several months of this coronavirus seems to have disappeared as we have approached the election. >> now, the senate is expected to confirm her nomination today and then adjourn until after the election a sure sign that no deal is in sight. mike. >> thank you very much you know, the market seems like it set aside the hopes of an imminent fiscal stimulus look at the way the bond market has been acting. it seems to be suggesting it's gearing up for a more aggressive fiscal policy sooner or later. this is the spread between 30 and five-year treasury debt. you see it's kind of been scaling steadily higher. this is at a multiyear high, a 30-year bond above 1.6%.
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is that what the message the bond market is sending if you look at the sectors of the stock market, it has allowed for more cyclical sectors to outperform tech. tech feasted on that lower for longer interest rate story here you have financials and industrials outperforming the nasdaq 100 on a month to date basis, and then look at the overall s&p 500, where we're going to open today is going to be a familiar place, you know, just about 1% lower around 3,400 just above 3,400 is where the index, the s&p has actually bottomed twice last week it's also kind of this level that separates that september into october correction from this upper part of the range it's kind of touch and go here in terms of whether in fact the market is going to break down or just be consolidated around this area the message of the bond market i do think is significant. really the yieldin s are kind of catching up to what the stocks are doing. yields are confirming what sectors of the market have been doing. it's not clear that the bond
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market is sniffing out new economic or fiscal policy informs information or maybe it's just kind of coming around. i think that's what the market is trying to sort out now. >> this could be worrisome, the backdrop, i don't know about fiscal but it seems like we can just count on the monetary that kind of explains maybe it explains sort of the inability to have a big selloff. that makes you wonder whether there's a big air pocket under everything thank god we don't have to let them argue with each other like congress >> there's your explanation for why five-year treasuries with below 0.4% further out the market is trying to figure out where that all goes in the next number of years. so that's why that spread has widened out. >> yeah, so ylan, meadows -- in meadows saying that, that upset the apple cart in terms of moving forward, do you think you look at europe and we just
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had our report on it, they don't want to necessarily close back down completely. they have the same sort of feeling about the economy, you know, trying to offset all the risks one way or another i mean, the world is still dealing with this pandemic, and i'm not saying we have to live with it, but i mean, i am living with it, we are living with it, and we want to -- you know, we need a vaccine we need therapeutics, but it has not gone away, so i don't know whether that's a very profound statement. i guess you shouldn't say it, but i don't know how profound it is >> yeah. i don't know that that was the straw that broke the camel's back here, joe i think the camel's back had long been broken, but when we talk about the two sides not having shared values, i mean, that was, you know, just the prime example of how they're on completely different pages on the best way to approach the pandemic, and when you're starting from that far apart fiphilosophically it's hard to find common ground i think that the thing to do now is say are they just laying the
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groundwork now for potential lay deal in december that's an open question. what could happen in february, you know, even if there is a blue wave, you have to remember that it's unlikely democrats are going to have 60 votes in the senate, so that could still act as a constraint around both the scope of fiscal stimulus that could be coming and the type of support that could be happening in the future. so there are lots of different s scenarios to game out after next week. >> thank you mike santoli, thank you. every time i read about europe, mike, they always say we need to do something, we're going to close the bars okay, so the bars are totally open now they're closing them at 6:00 >> right. >> that's your first problem in europe, you're at bars, what at lie like 2:00 in the afternoon. >> talking about curfews. >> who goes before 6:00. i'm getting old. i can't imagine heading in there and throwing them back at like 4:00. >> in spain people don't go until 10:00 p.m. sometimes. >> you're right. you're a worldly guy
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i knew i could come to you and get some insight there. >> it's been a while. >> thank you thanks mike. we've got to laugh i'm not laughing, but sometimes i think that's all we've got at this point thank you. early bird specials start at 4:00 p.m anyway, when we come back, a big week for tech. we've got earnings from amazon, apple, facebook, microsoft and many others. we'll give you a preview of the week ahead, something like a third of all the s&p 500 tempanies are reporting this wen dow components "squawk box" will be right back ♪ my i don't have to run day, it's just another ♪ moving. going. the world can't stop, so neither can we. because the things we make, help make the world go round. we are builders, constantly creating things that make our world cleaner,
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it's your wireless. your rules. only with xfinity mobile. welcome back to "squawk box," big tech gearing up for a very big week. facebook, twitter, microsoft, apple, and google parent alphabet, they're all reporting their quarterly results this week plus, the ceos of alphabet, twitter and facebook are scheduled to testify before the senate commerce committee on wednesday to examine their content liability shield known as section 230 joining us now to discuss all of this is ellie wheeler, partner at venture capital firm great cold front
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good morning . let's take earnings first. i think there's a big question as to what they're going to look like and frankly, whether they're sustainable. there's been a lot of growth in these companies, at least of the stock price during this period, and whether you think that looks sustainable to you >> sure. thanks for having me, it's going to be a busy week. i mean, i think that you're going to continue to see amazon and netflix fly, right i mean, for fairly obvious reasons these companies were benefitted pretty tremendously by the situation that we're in google's obviously priced a little bit more cautiously given some of the news that has come out over the past few months but in terms of sustainability, even things like netflix, that subscriber growth can't be sustainable, but that doesn't mean that they're not going to perform extremely well most things that people thought coming into all of this a few quarters ago have generally been wrong, and these stocks have
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continued to do extremely well >> the other question revolves really -- and we'll see it with google later this week, but with google and the lawsuit that the department of justice has brought against them and what the implications are for apple in terms of services revenue, in large part because google is paying apple billions of dollars annually for that default search right effectively when you go on an apple device and iphone, the default serge default search is google and whether you think that gets taken away what that means for alphabet on one side in terms of the traffic and all the revenue that generates and on the other side the revenue it also generates for an apple. >> yeah, it's funny. it just harkens back 20 years when we were having similar conversations. but i think that obviously it depends. it's going to be a big part of what they talk about and how they discuss this lawsuit because they are paying that
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i think you could see a scenario where instead the consumer gets a choice box, and frankly, the google product is good a lot of people are still going to pick google we'll see how that goes. there is the possibility that that goes away, and i'm not sure that that tanks in any way google's traffic given that it is -- except for a handful of categories that are fairly overrun by sao, google, you'll see a lot of consumers pick it will that hit apple in the short-term of course. >> want to bring in another voice to this conversation, ellie, right now, to discuss the battle between the doj and big tech which is adam singolda, it's great to see you. adam help us, though, understand you're watching this whole thing
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play out do you think that if apple was not paying, for example, for google to be the default search engine and somehow installed bing instead, if that's what you think would happen, that users would still migrate to google or they wouldn't? >> i'm not sure most people are truly aware of what's the default, so i think that, you know, being a default is a very important point of contact and canvas for whoever gets it. >> but let me ask you about that i, for example, am a google maps guy. as you know, apple maps is preinstalled on the iphone i have installed google maps i actually think if you look at the numbers, there is a remarkable number of people who have installed google maps and use that instead of apple maps so does it really matter
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>> well, i think it matters. you're right, though, when it comes to consumer waves or google maps or things like that, people get emotionally connected. when you it comes to different experience typing into the browser to go to a search page, i feel like most people are not necessarily aware of what experience is behind that browser. if you ask my mom does she know if the browser on her iphone is google or not, i don't think she would know the difference. i do think whoever gets that default it's a big premium on getting access to consumers and it's a big win for whoever gets it i don't think we'll see the same experience with google maps or waze or things of that nature. >> so you think it would change the equation if google was bl k blocked from paying for that right. do you think if that was the case that everybody should be blocked from that right, meaning nobody should beallowed to pay for effectively a default position in the same way google would argue that coca-cola might
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pay for a better position on the shelf at the supermarket >> look, i mean, i don't think there's a problem necessarily with the payment or the business model. i think that in general -- i also always say and i told you this last time, and i'm no expert in legal so i don't know what's a good remedy around these things, but it's not about size it's about behavior, right so what really bothers us is, you know, how people, you know, behave, what type of business model do they create and is it o'pro-competition or not we have no problem with power. we have a problem with being evil when you look at companies like google and facebook in the past, looking at some of behaviors when google surfaces news on their page and prevents people from going to the website it's not good when facebook blocks people from going to the website because they host it in the article that's not good. i think there is a lot of goodness that can come from
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regulation with regard to transparency and those things, but it's about the behavior of those companies. >> ellie, where do you land on this and one of the things that i can't figure out, i think to myself the immediate ramification if the department of justice was successful in their case against alphabet is ultimately, actually, is that would cost the customer. meaning that the apple phone ostensibly would ultimately cost more, not less >> that's an interesting point i don't think that's necessarily how it would flow through. like many things it would depend on how it's actually implemented. so what is that decision you know, as you pointed out, is it a default some other search engine or is it instead, you know, the consumer being prompted promp prompted from a list that slight difference seemingly is actually a huge difference. and might mike that behavior a
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little bit more akin to an apple maps, google maps situation, but generally i tend to agree with that because if you're going down that pathway and arguing against these payments, i think it's a little bit harder to argue that other people can pay for it, you know, so i think perhaps it goes away entirely. >> ellie, let me ask you another question, it's about 230, which is going to be the center of this hearing this week and i've struggled to understand the thought process. you have right now republicans on one side saying that they're seeing articles and things that they think are being censored, and they want to deal with 230, but 230 would create liability, which i would think would make -- would create more censorship, not liess, and then you have been democrats effectively saying the opposite but also arguing for the same thing. can you explain it >> i wish i could. both sides don't like it
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that's the only thing that i think, you know, wie can all se. neither side likes it, but they certainly aren't aligned on what they want to see so i actually think the companies to some degree might even agree i'm not sure they want to be the free speech police either. but what we do need are guidelines of some sort around what actually constitutes harmful content such that people can start to implement it. we have this era where private companies have been -- have needed to act like governmental agencies, and they've not done it well, and we shouldn't have expected that they would you know, there's a whole range of outcomes we could have here, obviously, but i think it will ultimately land with some sort of framework, some sort of guideline around what they should be doing because right now the free for all where each company chooses and then doesn't even enforce it, particularly
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consistently, isn't something that's sustainable, but both sides don't like it. i don't think big tech likes it. but you know, all their reasonings why they don't like it, what they want to see happen, all of that differs. i do think we'll start to see some guardrails. >> adam, do you think that breaking up the companies would have an impact on 230? i mean, do you think they're related at all i happen not to think that they're related at all and there's a lot of different issues people are going after tech for the idea of breaking them up in 230 seem like two very different ideas. >> i agree what really bothers us, let's break this down. what bothers us -- because we're pro-innovation we're pro-technology, pro-democracy. we have no problem with 230 so long that there's a good separation between being technology agnostic platform to the editorial voice that we want to leave for the open web and
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journalism what we saw with the "new york post" story recently and how much attention it got because we were all confused whether these tech platforms are truly agnostic are th do we see some involvement from -- do we see management getting involved g they do get involved, which we don't know the answer, that makes them a dictator ial. we don't know who makes those decision we have no transparency into the process, so from my perspective, the first question i would ask in the hearing is explain to me the process from the beginning to the end of how you make those decisions. >> okay. adam and l lellie, we appreciate your time and perspective this morning. thanks. >> thank you. coming up, the tax battle brewing between states due to people working from home
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you can imagine. you're right next to a state, you're no longer going there, new hampshire governor chris sununu is joining us to discuss his battle with massachusetts skpnc and later mohammed el-erian will join us to discuss the market day ahead coming right back. when i was in high school, this was the theater i came to quite often. ♪ the support we've had over the last few months has been amazing. i have a soft spot for local places. it's not just a work environment. everyone here is family. gonna go ahead and support him,
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. welcome back, quick check on the futures before we go we have another interview coming up in the 7:30 hour we want to get to but first check this out, down 35 now on the s&p, dow jones down almost 300, and the nasdaq no longer down triple digits but down about 98, andrew. >> also, we should mention the -- getting a flurry of coverage information after that direct listing morgan stanley saying it's accelerating growth and margins are underappreciated jeffries also calling it a buy both firms with a $13 price target goldman sachs and credit suisse initiating at neutral shares are mostly unchanged since that direct listing, which took place on september 30th. still to come this morning, thanks, guys, still to come this
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morning, mohamed el-erian on the markets and what traders should be watching. we have that interview right after this break. take a look at some of the early winners and losers in the s&p 500. the dow down by about 300 points cf industries is up, you've also got clorox leading the way on the downside, national oil well, should point out oil prices are down steeply by every 2% "squawk box" will be right back. s in your customized view of the market. it's smarter trading technology for smarter trading decisions. fidelity.
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♪ new hampshire's attorney general has filed a lawsuit in the u.s. supreme court against the state of massachusetts seeking to stop the state from collecting income taxes from new hampshire residents working if home joining us now, governor chris sununu of new hampshire. i'm sorry this is happening, governor, but as a person that doesn't live in either state, it's just really spicy to watch
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you two sort of going at each other. it really is, and you know, in new hampshire you take pride in not having an income tax that's why a lot of people move there. so. >> that's right. >> massachusetts, you know, wants to change the game in the middle and you know, there is a pandemic, and i can understand what they're saying because they need taxes, but their taxachucetts is so bloated they can't keep it in their own border, it's leaking out, their attempt to tax other people. but i'm not taking either side in this. is that how you would describe it >> you should. you should take sides. you should take sides on not collecting too many taxesment e we hit the pandemic. a lot of workers who live in new hampshire work in massachusetts, went home, worked remotely as they should have some of them haven't stepped in massachusetts in nine months but massachusetts has come up with a new rule saying we're going to still collect income tax
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that's a clear violation of the due process clause, a clear violation of interstate commerce we're going to take them to the u.s. supreme court i've spoken with governor baker, he's a great governor, but this one revenue department of massachusetts is trying to overstep their bounds. a lot of states are having financial troubles that doesn't mean you go and try to pick the pocket of everyone that comes by. i mean, you know, here in new hampshire, we're looking to cut taxes. we're looking to create flexibility. that's why you see so many businesses and families moving into the granite state >> here's what i always hear who doesn't love boston, who doesn't love the higher education that you can derive in boston and i always hear that, that you know, new york, hey, you want to live in this great place, you want these schools, you want these universities, you got to expect to pay more taxes, and you know, the flyover -- you're not a flyover state, but you're not boston in new hampshire, okay, so you should be glad to even be next to massachusetts.
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>> we're the tax free suburb we're the tax free suburb of boston >> but the universities are private in boston anyway, so what are they saying most of them are private, but i think maybe they're saying we've got to give the area such a great allure that we can get these academics, these smart people to come and live here. >> boston is a great cultural center, an incredible medical hub, a great academic center and it's wond efl we have proximity. you can be 30 minutes out of downtown boston but still not have the income tax, the sales tax, you have the individual liberties. you don't have an over bloated government we've been able to manage the pandemic we don't have riots. we don't have as much covid as everybody else, and we've got a flexible economy. >> still feels like you're gaming the system. you've got all these people living in new hampshire but they're deriving their livelihood from massachusetts, it seems only fair that massachusetts should get -- >> we're not -- be clear we're not gaming the system. they've screwed their system up.
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new york and massachusetts, they've screwed their system up. we've kept people first, individuals first. we're not gaming anything. >> uh-oh >> we're just not screwing it up like everybody else. >> here comes andrew, governor here comes andrew. >> governor, i'm just trying to understand if the shoe was on the other foot, if you will, what you would do about it clearly if you're the governor of massachusetts, you have a huge hole as a result of covid you have workers who would have otherwise typically paid taxes into the state not paying taxes under the scenario you're talking about. new hampshire clearly has been a beneficiary of, frankly, some of the taxes and what's taken place inside massachusetts in the same way that states around the tri-state have been beneficiaries of new york and new jersey and others that have done things. why would you want to penalize them >> i'm not doing anything. i'm not penalizing them.
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our workers are working in new hampshire, and if massachusetts has revenue issues, what they should do is lower their taxes, get rid of regulatory burdens, and be a very attractive place for business and families to want to go to instead of leaving the inner cities in droves so they have to drive their own solutions. when we have a problem in new hampshire, i don't go to new york and massachusetts and whine about it and say you have to change your system to come, you know, meet our needs that's not appropriate at all. so we -- >> but governor -- >> you're going to make it better than everybody else. >> do you believe that your success, new hampshire's success is tied at all to the success of massachusetts, which is to say if massachusetts becomes -- >> of course. >> -- a materially less desirable place for businesses to be established and to have headquarters and the like, many of which are -- have historically been places that people who live in new hampshire have worked, if those companies say, you know what massachusetts, these guys are having a tough time, we're going to move to texas, that's not good for you either.
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>> well, they're not going to texas. they're coming to new hampshire. see, we're all tied together we're in it together, especially across new england, vermont, maine, massachusetts, new hampshire, we are all in this together, but when it comes to being attractive, we don't want anybody to do badly by any means, but we're the place that everyone is now coming to because we can be part ofthat cultural center, that education center, whatever it might be, but stilling with -- have those individual liberties put businesses first, put employees first. you know, we just don't burden people like that, and we have a model that works i wish all the states in new england would copy our model, right? why are so many people coming out of new york? some might go to texas or whatever it might be, but i also have companies from california coming here, right they're jumping right over new york and boston and landing right in new hampshire so we're very proud of that, but it's not just tradition. it's an economic model, right? it's a capitalistic, you know, model where we say competition drives success for the individual, not for government it's not about how much money the government needs or can get.
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why don't you try trimming the fat out of your government and becoming more efficient? >> governor, this matters in a big way for a lot of places, not just new hampshire and massachusetts, obviously, for new york city, connecticut, new jersey, you think of places like chicago and ndiana, places, anywhere there's a city that's near a border with another state, this is going to be a big deal what do you think will happen with the supreme court what are the odds on this? when do you think we'll have some answer on this as to what happens? >> i think we're going to know within the next month or so whether they'll hear the case. they only hear about 100, 150 cases. if they choose not to hear the case, we can still go to a federal court on it. it will have ramifications across the country to your point, in these cities, bad policy is catching up to everybody. these larger cities. people are leaving in droves there's a massive deurbanization i think you're going to get a commercial real estate crunch, you know, in a macroeconomic scale across this country.
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on a microscale on a main street scale, we're doing very, very well, especially here in new hampshire. even across the rest of the country. when you see the airlines and what's going to happen with some of the commercial stuff, especially in those inner cities, you're going to see billions and billions of dollars of write downs that will have an impact on us for sure. you can't just start taking it out of the hides of individuals that don't live and work in your state anymore. there's a clear -- that's what due process in the constitutionconstitution defines. we have other paths to pursue as well. >> if they don't take it up and you decide to take this to a federal appeals court, what happens in the meantime? are you negotiating with massachusetts or with boston in any way to try and figure out if there's some split the difference type of solution, or is this an all or nothing? >> well, i haven't started any negotiation -- charlie baker and i talk all the time. we've been talking about hockey a lot lately frankly v. not started the negotiation process or anything like that. i think we'll wait to see what happens in the supreme court,
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and maybe i'll bring it up in one of our non-awkward conversations between me and charlie. we'll see what happens. >> so governor, the president was there, huge crowd, it's like everybody from new hampshire i don't know how you get that many people, but he's down 10%, right or so, that's what everybody says and he's not popular there, and have you -- and it's going to hurt down market candidates as well >> ballot. >> yeah, down ballot have you distanced yourself at all from the president, and what do you make of the rallies is every single -- there's a lot of people in a lot of different states but if that's every single supporter in the state, then that doesn't necessarily mean that the polls are wrong. >> no, i support the president, and i think he's going to do very well here i think this last debate i think sent a bit of a shock wave through places like new hampshire where we're having a lot of economic success. joe biden wants to shut everything down. i mean, that's clear and i think a lot of folks are a
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bit taken a pause taken aback by that it can't be a one size fits all out of washington. that's what the biden campaign is saying. we're going to do this to the country, that to the country flexibility is key you can't treat new york or massachusetts or california or iowa like new hampshire, and they don't want to be treated like us either whether it's a stimulus package, whether it's some of the new guidelines that might come out from the cdc, flexibility in allowing the states on the health side, the state epidemiologists should be working with the governors to say here are the guidelines to open up. we've been very successful with that i don't want washington coming in and basically taking us backwards three or four months that's one of the problems with the biden campaign right now joe biden packed up and left new hampshire at about 4:00 on the first primary day back in february, and he never came back trump has been back many times trump is here trying to talk to not just his supporters but independent voters, and that's why i think that gap is closing. he knows he can win here he's got to work hard, but he knows he can win and he knows
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that biden message really isn't resonating. >> governor, when it comes to congress, though, you've pretty much had it with both parties in terms of the stimulus talks and this continuing delays and nothing getting done, right? >> fire them all i mean, i really mean that sincerely. no one in the senate or congress can say that they've shown leadership on the covid crisis what have they done since march? like literally nothing they made a lot of promises but they've literally done nothing, no leadership, no innovation, no challenging the system, right? they've kind of thrown their hands up and walked away from the whole thing. they said they were going to do some stimulus. they walked way. put it this way, would the country be better or worse off if you replaced all 535 of them today? i think the odds they would probably be a little better. you get the political nonsense out of the picture you get all the things that have just clogged the system up so badly. it's like you've got a pipe that
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is so clogged all the drano in the world isn't going to clean it you've got to cut the pipe out i think the people of america are sick and tired of nothing. you've got to manage you've got to move the ball forward. you've got to show leadership in some way they've done virtually nothing i think we're going to get a stimulus package after the election, in early 2021. the democrats are saying it's going to be an astronomical amount of money. flexibility to the states, trust us as governor, we know what we're doing. >> all right, governor, thanks no income tax, senator governor greg says you've got the best maple syrup. he always insists on that, even though people swear by vermont maple syrup. can you confirm that is it better >> 100% confirmed, senator greg would never steer you wrong. >> okay. >> all right, governor, thank you. appreciate it. >> thank you. >> and it's really kind of interesting to watch what's going on up there. we'll see. thanks, andrew. i'm a fan of hanover coming up, when we return,
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american airlines planning on customer tours of its 737 max. details on when they plan on flying them again. we'll talk about it next. also, take a look at shares of dunkin brands today, the owner of dunkin' donuts and baskin r baskin-robbins has held preliminary discussions. the "new york times" is reporting that deal would take dunkin private the price tag 06pe$1.50 r share. "squawk" returns right after this
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welcome back to "squawk box" this morning futures under pressure on this monday morning it looks like the dow would open down about 316 points. the s&p 500 looking to open down about 36 points. the nasdaq looking to open down 93 1/2 points. let's explain what might be going on here a little bit shares of sap getting pounded in europe the company warning it will take longer than expected to recover from the impact of the covid-19 pandemic saying new lockdowns would hamper demand through the first half of the year sap's dropped pressuring the broader german dakotx as well. what that means right here in the united states, perhaps even for big technology companies
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that could make similar cases. a record number we should also mention of new covid cases in parts of the united states the country posting 80,000 new infections on friday and saturday in the meantime, europe dealing with that resurgence of its own. italy ordering bars to close early, and it's shutting public gyms spain issuing a nationwide curfew, and france reporting a record daily rise in new infections as well all of that contributing to that pressure we're seeing this morning. american airlines planning to allow customers to go on some tours of the boeing 737 max and calls with its pilots in the coming weeks to boost confidence in that plane. the max was grounded worldwide as we reported so often about a year and a half ago now, cnbc has learned american planning to start flights with employees that's supposed to happen after thanksgiving it's also offering some customers a chance to see the aircraft in person at airports
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including at the dallas fort worth airport. new york, laguardia, and miami when we come back, mohamed el-erian will join us to talk about the week ahead on wall street we'll find out what you need to be watching. and white house economic council director larry kudlow will join us to talk about what's happening with stimulus s,f anything, and what the economy really needs right now "squawk box" will be right back. ♪ you can go your own way
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our next guest says the european and u.s. surges in covid, how far will the government go with new business restrictions and what will be the impact on those businesses and consumers. joining us is mohamed el-erian this is a big question as we know, there are some sort of restrictions that are coming down quickly on some of these european countries again, and some pushback not only in europe birx al but also here in the united states what's going to happen there is not the will for people to live with the same sort of lockdowns we saw back in the spring that led to such steep economic declines. >> so becky, i was with you last
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week and i suggested keep an eye on europe, and we've learned a lot in a weeks' time we've learned that, one, these cases are translating to higher hospitalization. b, that the test and trace system gets overwhelmed, c, that governments end up reacting and d, and perhaps the most sobering is that these very elegant on paper focused approach where you just focus on the areas where it's worse end up being very difficult to do it in practice so governments in france, in spain, in italy, in belgium, and the list goes on end up doing things that look more like lockdown light than something that we were hoping would be much more qualified. so it will have an impact, and europe is looking at a 50% probability of a double dip recession. >> so what happens next?
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i mean, there's a big question about whether these lockdowns will even work you're not talking about shutting down things entirely, just saying the bars have to close after 6:00 p.m you can't catch covid before 6:00 p.m.? >> that's the problem is that we haven't yet found this balance between three things public health, normal economic functioning, and personal freedoms, and you know, if we're trying that, you can take the third thing away and just deal with two, you can solve it we haven't yet found it. we're going to continue to iterate like this, which means the recovery is not going to be smooth it's going to have lots of bumps, and there is a material risk in some countries of going back into recession, which, you know, last summer we thought, that's it. we've gotten out of recession. we won't go back down again. >> so how does this play out and by the way, take how this plays out and try and translate
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to how the markets are going to interpret all of this. it's like the eighth iteration of what this all means it's certainly not the most important thing, the market's reaction to this, but it is kind of what we're paying attention to. >> it is, and so far markets have been completely insulated because of monetary policy, and there was a hope in the marketplace that fiscal would come in and then would flub the system with both monetary and fiscal, and we simply would overwhelm these negative fundamentals now we've learned a few things that on the fiscal side it's harder it's politically harder. and you know what, even if we get it, it doesn't go to financial assets like monetary policy does. it goes into income support, which is good for people but less good for markets directly i think the bottom line is it all comes down, once again, to the liquidity conditioning will markets believe that central banks can simply
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decouple valuations from fundamentals for another round it's all about conditioning. it's all about behavioral finance right now, becky. >> okay, so the stimulus talk, this is like every day we ask where are they they're closer together, they're farther apart. markets move on this markets don't move on this i feel like it's ridiculous that anybody thinks there's going to be anything that's done say maybe the next month or two, right? >> yeah, i don't see it being done because even if they were to agree, and now the latest one is each side accuses the other one of moving the goal post, even if they agree, you've got to get it through congress, and you haven't got much time, and we have one other big issue there that's going to leave a lot of bad feelings in the senate so this -- i don't understand why we react so as a marketplace to every sign of the stimulus when it's very clear that it is very hard to get this through
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before the election and that after the election, we've got to wait until the beginning of next year and meanwhile, scarring goes on. economic scarring. >> that's my question. how bad is the scarring? how bad are things going to get? let's assume you don't get anything from february at the earle earlie earliest what does that mean from an economic position for this country? >> i want to distinguish between the markets. i think the markets live on a different planet, the central bank planet. the rest of the economy live on planet earth, and planet earth means that we're going to see layoffs go higher, we're going to see bankruptcies go higher, and we're going to see the inequality of opportunity go higher including for kids. and that's what concerns me the most is this long-term scarring. we can deal with the first two it's the third one, becky, that's of major concern, and it's happening at every level from schooling all the way up.
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>> mohamed, thank you, always appreciate these talks with you, and we will see you again very soon. >> thank you j joe. coming up, a check on oil markets, how the election could impact that sector next. and later, don't miss our interview with nec director larry kuowomg dl cinup in the next hour. "squawk box" is coming right back businesses today are looking to tomorrow. adapting. innovating. setting the course. but new ways of working demand a new type of network.
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good morning stocks set for a big pullback, surging covid cases on both sides of the atlantic in focus for investors this morning, even as we get set for the busiest week of earnings season. this hour we're going to ask larry kudlow if there's still a chance for a stimulus deal before the election. if not, what are the chances after november 3rd and finally, on the ground in the spots that may just decide the 2020 racement of we' we're headed to those battleground counties in the battleground states in an effort to show you the biggest issues driving the vote the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now
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♪ good morning, and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin the futures 325 as you can see, 105 on the nasdaq, s&p down 38, 39 points. all this as rapidly growing coronavirus cases in the u.s. and europe are spooking investors this morning america hit a record number of new infections on friday, close to 84,000, saw a similar number saturday france meanwhile saw record daily cases yesterday more than 50,000, with not nearly as many people in that country as here in the states. europe as a whole passed 250,000 deaths spain's prime minister announced a new state of emergency with local curfews and restricted travel, and italy closed movie
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theaters and gyms and told restaurants and bars that they had to close by 6:00 p.m let's show you some of the stocks most closely tied in our view to how the pandemic is progressing. there's the airline issues as you can see right there, all down more than mostly -- except for american down more than 2% cruise lines, we still check them, you wonder about the future, but you still see that, you know, 62 still on royal caribbean, but all down more than 3% today, and then check out the price of crude oil the price of crude is currently down almost 2.5%, 2.25% at 38 and change becky. joe, thanks. big corporate story that we're watching this morning that tis o the coronavirus as well. check out shares of s&p, they've been getting pounded in europe this is their worst intraday
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drop since 1999 the company warning it will take longer to recover than expected from the impact of the covid pandemic sap's dropped pressuring the broader german dax as well and has been putting pressure on other indexes as well. you can see the dax down by 2.6% ant group setting the price for its upcoming ipo it's looking to raise $34.5 billion in its dual public offering in shanghai and hong kong that makes it the biggest listing of all time. andrew meantime, election day is next tuesday, and we're hearing so much talk around the battleground states, but what about the most critical areas within the battleground states, that's the question. the u these are the counties that may truly turn next week's election and our good friend brian sullivan is hitting the road ahead of the vote and joins us now from one such location where are you at, brian?
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>> reporter: well, we are here in erie, pennsylvania, okay? and that's this is kicking off a nine-day, nine-state, 3,000 mile road trip. we are driving because we know that wisconsin, michigan, and pennsylvania delivered trump the white house, but if you look inside the data -- and that's what we do, right? it's actually only a couple of counties that delivered the states to the president. sot with thso with that in minde wanted to find the counties, maybe even the cities that could change the whole course. if you look at pennsylvania, five counties really may make the difference three of them, they're tucked up against new jersey we know those. we are in erie county, pennsylvania erie was won by obama by 17% in 2012, trump flipped it by only won by 2 prer%. the margin of victory was much smaller than the number of votes that went to third-party candidates in erie here's the question, guys, around erie. we're standing in front of the ge lab tech, they make train
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engines, locomotives they just laid off 300 people. erie is the third slowest growing metropolitan area in the united states. the key is going to be this. will donald trump's america first, manufacturing first, jobs first sort of message still resonate here in an area that is still suffering and, in fact, at least at one major employer, guys, has lost jobs. so we're kicking it off in erie. listen, you can win the white house without pennsylvania, but it's going to be a lot harder, and if you want to win pennsylvania, you're going to have to win erie county, bucks county, north hatmpton and a couple of others for the next eight or nine days we're going to be literally driving around and highlighting these key spots that you need to watch next tuesday night >> and brian, so four years ago the president won pennsylvania by about 65,000 votes, third-party candidates won more than 191,000 votes that's four years ago. so what do we know about those voters this time around?
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>> oh, that is the sneaky important question i don't know how many people are talking about it, but when you really go into the numbers, andrew, it's amazing wisconsin, michigan, and pennsylvania, donald trump's margin of victory in those three states combined was about 170,000 people that could fit in the university of michigan's football stadium the number of votes that went to third-party candidates, mostly gary johnson, some to jill stein, 630,000 the key question is where do those third-party voters go? there is one third-party candidate on the ballot in pennsylvania this time there was four in 2016 there are three in wisconsin and michigan, but only one here to kind of dispatch that element. where those voters go, andrew, is as good a question as anybody can ask. i tell you what, we were driving around we're going to maybe go into some of the neighborhoods. home after home trump, biden, trump, biden, this is a key
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state, the keystone state. they know it here. every commercial on tv is some sort of an election ad, biden's bad, trump's bad it's never who's good. it's just who's bad, as you know so where those third-party voters go, that is the sneaky important question i think maybe for the whole thing. >> staorry to throw you a curve ball, how is voting set up there? in the state of new jersey you have to vote by mail unless you're going to plan to show up and vote on election day if you have a disability or something and need to use the polls. but almost everybody is voting by mail here what's it like there >> reporter: you can vote by mail there were some issues around signatures, in fact, i think it was yesterday or two days ago, of course it's march 284th, becky, every day's kind of the same the state supreme court ruled on a key signature issue allowing signatures to maybe not match perfectly. mail-in ballots i believe are
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due november 6th don't quote me on that you can mail in certainly -- i'm going to tell you something, you drive around and almost every house or many of them have signs in their yard, and where we live, guys, let's just be honest, okay, you're not seeing a lot of trump signs, but when you get out of new jersey and drive to erie county, pennsylvania, i saw two multihundred car rallies on the drive here on route 80 and one was near allentown, hundreds of cars, flags, trump flags, honking their horns, other people honking at them, i think there were some hand gestures going back and forth pennsylvania's going to matter a lot. there is mail-in voting, but i'm sure, you know, listen, come voting day next tuesday that's going to be where it all happens, i think. >> just to point out, i think you're right that i think i read the same thing that you can vote -- they can get your ballot as late as like november 6th, but it still has to be postmarked by november 3rd
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it has to be postmarked before, they are giving a grace period i think that's what the courts ruled there. >> every state we're going to, and we're not going to tell you the other counties we're going to, you can probably guess where we're going to go based on 2016. every state's got slightly different things, and i hate to say this, but i'm not going to be the only one to say it, there there's a good chance that at midnight next tuesday we may not know now, it depends but if you look at the data, and again, county by county like erie county, trump won erie county by 2%. by 2%. about one-third the number of voters that went to third-party candidates it could be that tight again, and by the way, the cnbc change research poll, the latest one has biden up by 2% in pennsylvania, the margin of error is 1.8% of the poll. so this is an important -- you can win the white house without pennsylvania, but it's a lot harder
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20 electoral votes matter bigly, by the way and erie county has gone democrat for 100 years prior to trump. we're going to see if the layoffs that just happened to 300 union guys at the lab tech factory behind us, if that kind of economic story sort of dissolves trump's message or maybe helps him again. >> brian, biden obviously new jersey is like new york, going to be a huge trump -- i mean, a huge biden state, but you'd have to be crazy to put up a trump sign in new jersey there are people near where i live that i know they're trump supporters, but you cannot put up a trump sign out there, and i think that's a commentary. it's a little -- it's a commentary i mean, and with impunity the biden signs, no one's going to threaten you or run over your sign or -- >> you know, joe -- >> you cannot put up a trump sign because there's some -- truly -- just to put a fact to
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what we're talking about here, brian, you can't i would be worried if i were someone if i happened to be a trump supporter, i'd be worried about putting up a sign because i don't want people taking names and addresses for the future sick >> there are -- there are a few places in new jersey you'll see trump signs if you go to like toms river. >> at your own risk. >> yeah, but in your -- let me guess, joe, in your leafy enclave, you see the signs that say bi-done, the ones that are like bi-done we all agree we live -- the delaware river might as well be 100 foot tall wall that a lot of people in our industry don't leave i'm not knocking anybody, but you have to get in a car that's why we're doing this. i spent a lot of time in wisconsin, as we all know, and you've got to get out of new jersey and new york to kind of see what other people are thinking, and if you get caught in this sort of, you know, cycle of conversation where we are,
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i'm just going to tell you, anecdotally, and we're going to do the eyeball test a lot, i would say it's half and half on the bumper stickers, on the signs and people are flying -- by the way, whatever candidate they support, they're passionate about it >> okay, brian, it's almost as if facebook and twitter are controlling or passing out which signs you can use. no, i'm kidding. anyway, thank you, brian good job where are you headed now where are you headed now somewhere else >> well, we're going to be in erie all day we've got some cool stuff to show you tomorrow's a driving day, and let's just say we'll be in the central time zone on wednesday in maybe the most important county in the country. how's that for a tease >> excellent tease becky. >> i agree i was just going to say i don't know where you guys drive around -- >> even the dogs don't like the media here >> you got trump signs where you are, becky >> i've been driving around a lot, yeah, i saw a trump tent
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yesterday. people out there -- >> trump flag. >> people out there with the big flags and the rest of it >> i've seen two houses. they're far and few between. >> you haven't driven around enough >> maybe it's my neighborhood. i don't know. >> down at the beach, they're everywhere, south jersey, too. yeah >> all right >> i just got flipped off and barked at, and it's only 8:15. >> that had nothing to do with politics that's just -- they may have seen the worldwide exchange. >> stay out of the street, they run you over, brian. >> god almighty. >> it's early. coming up, national economic council director larry kudlow preelection stimulus bill is looking pretty unlikely at this point. would the white house push to get one done soon, though, after november 3rd. next, new data that could point to strengthening of the u.s. work force. at the same time, wall street is
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worrying about the pace of job growth we'll look into that as we head to break, check out the shares of hasbro, the company beat analysts' assessments on the top and bottom line, though the shares n'e down dot miss hasbro's ceo. stay tuned, "squawk box" will be right back in a few moments, rackspace technology will enter a new and exciting chapter. across muti-cloud, apps, data and security, we focus on
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on the network rated #1 in customer satisfaction. it's your wireless. your rules. only with xfinity mobile. welcome back to "squawk box. take a look at futures, they are pointing lower this morning. let's show you what's going on right now. it looks like the dow is going to open down about 350 points. some of this we should also say may be related to what's happening to oil because oil is alsotaking a hint, tanking and taking a hit on rising coronavirus infections and potentially lockdown fears joining us right now to talk about all of it is the founding partner at again capital, a cnbc contributor as well. john, it's great to see you. we are watching oil move lower this morning on the backs of what may be lockdowns in europe and potential lockdowns here in the united states. how do you calculate it? >> the lockdown news couldn't be
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any worse for the oil market, andrew i mean, the oil market desperately needs to get past this pandemic phase because of just what is happening with the transportation fuel demand has just gotten wrecked, especially in the airline sector continues to be down, you know, 40, 50%. the refineries are choking on it they can't do anything with it so this is a major problem for the price -- >> but why -- by why didn't the oil -- why didn't the oil markets anticipate this willalr? i mean, i think medical scientist out there would tell you we were invariably this winter going to be going into another dark period in which case you might have, whether it's lockdowns or just even commerce customers deciding that they're not going to be moving around as much, how is that not already anticipated? >> well, because there were glimmers of hope, andrew a couple of weeks ago we had our
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first and only near normal gasoline demand pickup here in the u.s. we got to 9 million barrels. we got our first million traveler day in the airports here in the u.s. you know, there were some hopeful signs about the treatments, about the vaccines, so you know, the stock market's been wildly optimistic about, you know, getting through this the oil market and other commodities not so much. and things were looking better in europe disease wise so i think that -- i'll tell you, though, it's been a true stalemate in the oil market. we haven't been much -- a couple of dollars away from 40 bucks for like six months now. the industry has been almost left for dead. so i mean, i think a lot of the outlook is sort of in the price. now that the situation's getting worse and it's prooucven to be getting worse, the prices are going to reflect that. >> john, what do you think -- if you were to take a consensus view of those around you in your space, what do you think the view is for when there's going to be a material pickup in
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travel, a material pickup of people getting on airplanes, all of it? >> not until some point next year, probably mid-year next year at the earliest there's some -- there was some hope in the market that the northern hemisphere winter that we're entering right now, which is the true peak demand season globally would have helped to support things, but i don't think we saw a return to lockdowns. i mean, there's headlines out there, i don't want to spread anything, but that italy, france, and spain are going to go to full lockdown again. i haven't been able to confirm that, but if that's the truth, that's what's getting priced in here this morning to a degree along with the full return of libyan oil, another last thing that the bulls, anyway, in the market needed. >> and john, when you talk about things returning next summer, to what level are you talking about? what do you think the expectation is >> i would say to -- i would be
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capping at sort of a 90% demand profile return, assuming that there is, you know, vaccine implementati implementation i saw dr. gottlieb say within three months that this thing could look a lot less worse or a lot less bad, so i think you calculate that and with the pandemic just, you know, dying on its own plus the treatments, plus whatever vaccine, you know, it could possibly be a return to summer driving particularly, heavily, and heavy travel given how much pent up demand we see whenever there's the slightest easing of the restrictions socially or what have you around the country and around the world >> okay. john, we're going to have to have you back. i think there's a longer discuss to be had here, but we appreciate you joining us this morning, especially as the markets are moving as they are thanks, becky. >> thanks, andrew, appreciate it thanks, guys when we come back, are we about to see another hire for wall
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street's megastocks. here's one as we head to that break, but maybe you should call it doughnut tuck dunkin brands says it's discussing a potential sale to arby's and sonic owner inspire brands reports put a price at 106.50 a share. that's a 20% premium to dunkin's closing price on friday. that stock's up by about 15%qu8. "sawk box" will be right back.
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welcome back, everybody. we told you covid-19 cases are surging both in the united states and in europe outside people's health, though, this is going to have major implications for in-person schooling and for job growth as well because those two are connected. steve liesman joins us right now. he's got new data on both of those issues on road back barometer. >> good morning, becky it's all joined together, school reopening, job growth and job availability for employees and the coronavirus cases when it comes to the economic outlook. here's some of the high frequency data we track here we have some good, some okay and some ugly data here. let's start on the right this has surged since september
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and october. in-person schooling is up to 36%. that's a big high up from 19 the ukg time punches, t0.7. that's okay. that shows decent job growth, but again, all of that is covered by what's happening with this surge in covid cases hasn't yet shown up in the high frequency data i want to show you the school reopenings we've seen here let's go back to look at september 1st. you can take a look when we make the change, what happened in florida and in texas, and of course mississippi and alabama now we'll go to the next map you can see it darken up, and that's more in-person traditional learning we can do that again so you can follow it one more time. take a look at, again, september, when you go back, watch what happens to florida, texas, mississippi, and alabama, and also tennessee as well then make the change to currently, and you can see what does that mean why is that important?
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it makes more women especially and more men available to the workplace. 1.1 million more women than men are unemployed or have left the work force in this covid crisis. we'll take a look at one more map, which you guys were looking at earlier, which is the covid cases. it is spreading throughout the country. we don't know yet the economic implications of this you guys were talking about new lockdowns in europe, no sense yet what this means for the u.s. in terms of employment we're looking for 800,000 jobs to have been created in october in the report we get, guys, next week, becky, it's an election, a fed meeting and the jobs report, so we're all going to be a little bit busy. becky. >> hey, steve, i think those maps don't really capture what's actually happening in school right now because even if your district is open and people are going in person like ours has been, my son's been going five days a week to elementary school
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since this started or since september, the beginning of september when they came back to school, but it doesn't really show the disruptions and interruptions that come every time there's a positive case that shows up. our school on thursday night we found out late would be going virtually the entire school on friday because of a positive case that was there. the startup and stop down, that doesn't lend a lot to parents who are trying to make sure they can be at work every day, and there's no way to really plan for that >> no, and there's no real way to show, you're absolutely right, becky i will say i have talked at length with the folks from burbio, and for just the reason you said, it's one of the reasons they think that we have capped off at how much we're going to be moving towards in-person learning that's the september map there showing, guys, if you want to show one, show the current map there. go to the next one yeah, there you go, thank you very much. and what that shows is we're pretty much done here. they don't think there's going
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to be any additional improvement until school boards reassess what's going to happen in january again. we're pretty much there now, and that, again, going back to the macro region there, obviously huge issues with people's lives and health and things like that. but the macro issue here, one of the them, is the availability of women and men for the work force, and we have seen this unusual shift where more women have left the work force or are unemployed during men during a recession. it's almost always the other way around >> yeah. i don't see any other way to plan for it. you're finding this stuff out not just day by day but almost hour by hour steve, thank you. >> that's right, pleasure. coming up, will earnings this week bring back momentum for wall street's tech stocks? stick around to find out in our interview with national economic council director greg kudlow just ahead. n't go anywhere. "squawk box" coming right back
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we've been talking about sap all morning.
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you can see it there down 21% after the company warned that new covid lockdowns will hamper demand through the first half of next year. other names on the move include salesforce and oracle. sort of in a similar space that you can see. not quite as significant u.s. equity futures down 300 points, nasdaq down more than 100 and it's the busiest week of earnings season and really, especially for the mega cap tech companies, they are all set to release results before friday. so we've got a market led by tech and tech led by faang and katie, netflix is out, but other than that, they're all coming along with microsoft this week so it would be a good time to look, i think, at faang to try to get a handle on where tech's going to go. that might help us with the overall market is there a chart we can look at for the faang stocks >> there is an index called the faang plus m index that we
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track. we like to look at it in relative terms, so divided by the s&p 500, and when you look at it that way, you see very distinct up trend supported by the moving averages. we have seen a pullback in consolidation is evident, of course, in the individual names in absolute terms as well. >> okay, katie, i'm going to stop you for a second. we have the charts, i think, and you just were talking about the charts, so it'd really be good to have the chart while you're talking about exactly what's there. it would be a great time to bring it up. anyway, there it is, now go over that again, i'm sorry to interrupt you. what did you say is happening? >> it's a long-term uptrend, for the faang plus m stocks collectively versus the s&p 500, so we like to look at the ratio that shows that relative performance. and whether you look at the individual stocks, they have indeed consolidated, but there are no breakdowns and consolidation when you have these steep kinds of uptrends
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tends to be healthy, sort of like a pause to refresh. we did already see netflix report earnings and the reaction was negative, but it did not yield a breakdown. so netflix is range bound, somewhat oversold now, within a broader long-term uptrend. and then we do have, of course, earnings coming from a lot of the faang plus m stocks this week, and they set up favorably from a technical perspective ahead of those reports. >> okay. like what? you got facebook >> facebook would be a great example. so that broke out from a very short-term consolidation phase last week, i think that's promising. it does show better momentum than the broader market, and we also think that it should exhibit positive strength as they have done historically. we're looking for facebook to resume higher and for that also to carry over to the other faang plus m stocks. >> so i can't tell from that that it's oversold how can you tell you have to look at something else, i guess, there's something else you'd have to measure,
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right? >> so to pull back off the high from october 12th, it's really been a shallow pullback, but it has been constructive from my perspective in that we haven't seen any breakdowns during that pullback, at least not on a widespread basis the pullback has been enough to bring us close to oversold territory and near oversold territory for those bank plus m stocks it's so rare we get these oversold ratings plus m stock. we're seeing that as an opportunity to add exposure irrespective of the inevitable certainty we're seeing. >> faang plus m, that's the latest netflix we already saw, but we already saw the results but you think that that traded well even though it was down, or at least it stayed within a trading range. >> within a range, mm-hmm. yeah >> and it's rated to reassert
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itself >> i think so. the short-term is very distinct for netflix within that trading range, and the trading range is seemingly a disruption in the long-term uptrend, and there's support nearby based on previous lows there it's so rare to get these short-term oversold readings for these stocks which have been sources of long-term upside lim. so i thi -- leadership. so i think that folks will be eager to add exposure again to these names. >> we see the nasdaq sort of accentuates moves one way or the other of the overall indices, but just on a relative basis, it's still up a lot more than the s&p 500 on a relative basis. what is it saying? would you short that >> that is the worst, right? >> would you fade that or go into the s&p or stick with it? >> i think you stick with it for now. i do think between here and year end, we'll see additional short-term volatility. that will end the year higher in part because the intermediate and long-term momentum is still
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there behind the major indices including the nasdaq 100 and nasdaq composite, which of course have recovered from that september pullback already so that's what we want to keep in mind as we view this short-term volatility, and you would think that the relative strength would look worse behind the nasdaq 100 versus the s&p 500, but in actuality, it's really just a minor consolidation phase in that ratio, and i think that that will serve as a pause to refresh those names, so they can then, again, reassert their leadership stronghold but we have seen breath definitely spread out. small and mid caps is one area garner performance and outside leadership it's not all about these large cap technology stocks, but indeed it is ready now >> okay, and just s&p support and next level, is it in an upturn, consolidation trend? what's the s&p look like
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>> the support i'm watching is not a major level. it's really the level i want to see hold in order to preserve not the long-term uptrend but the interimmediamediate uptrend. the resistance is at a september high that's final resistance on the chart. it's a minor level it's only been tested once i do think we will see new highs ultimately from the s&p 500. incrementally, we can, you know, target higher prices for q1 and certainly of next year >> okay, great, a look at the technicals of everything we covered a lot there thanks, katie, we'll check back. thank you. still to come this morning, cramer and kudlow, if that sounds familiar, maybe a little bit out of order, up next we're going to get jim cramer's first take on the markets this week. and then we have larry kudlow joining us to talk about what's happening with the stimulus if
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anything, and what the prospects are for the economy. check out the futures this morning, they are under pressure dow futures indicated down by about 335 points, s&p futures 7.f by 40, the nasdaq down by 11 you can watching "squawk box" on cnbc watching "squawk box" on cnbc watching "squawk box" on cnbc watching "squawk box" on cnbc a watching "squawk box" on cnbc re watching "squawk box" o cnbc our retirement plan with voya gives us confidence. they help us with achievable steps along the way... we can spend a bit today, knowing we're prepared for tomorrow. wow dad, do you think you overdid it maybe? i don't think so... what do you think, peanut? nope! honey, do you think we overdid it?
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♪ welcome back to "squawk box," we want to get straight to cnbc headquarters, jim cramer joins us now trying to understand this market this morning, we're looking at oil prices down, covid cases up.
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we got sap i saw you tweeting about that. >> right >> where to begin? >> it's funny because you've got dunkin' donuts, dunkin brands, which a lot of people are short versus starbucks getting this potential take in private at 106. i would have thought that would have meant more than what happened at sap, but the sap guide down is really vicious, and a lot of people are saying, listen, the cloud has slowed i think that's a complete wrong lead i think that as sap migrates to the cloud, their clients are actually doing less business and they did pay 8 billion for concur six years ago concur being this fabulous travel and entertainment app, so to speak, and boy, that has been really hit, so i don't really want -- i know the world is going to ascribe slower cloud, but what's really weird with these guys, andrew, and they've had a bunch of ceo changes that we know that the cloud move has accelerated by covid i'm not taking their excuse as being, let's say, as on the
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mark i think it's missing the mark. so i've seen -- >> i want to go back to -- i want to go back to dunkin for a second the fact that they're private equity buyers and management that wants to take the company private while the stock is up, right? what does that say about everybody else in the marketplace? >> look, i was surprised these guys have been bottom fishers historically, and they've been really good buyers. what it would say to you is that covid has knocked these things down to levels that they are frankly unsustainable except for this thing has had such a big run. it's a really good product, and it's a really good national group, but maybe they take it international. these guys are pretty smart. remember, they got buffalo wild wings at a pretty good price i don't know i've got to tell you, i think this is quizzical. why pay up when we're about to enter the second leg some people say the third leg, where we have dr. gottlieb calling for a national mask mandate. i don't know if i want to be in
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this stock, and here it is someone's buying it. so it's just an oddity that does give kind of a rosy hue to a lot of different companies >> by the way a lot of retailers are up i'm sorry. >> if you're walking into a third wave or a dark winter or whatever you want to call that, is there a stock you want to buy in that moment >> i think that we're backing the stock up, which is really rather incredible. i think you have to go amazon. i know they report, but i think amazon's going to have a lot of positive things to say i wouldn't be surprised, by the way, if they didn't talk about borat. >> we all watched it last weekend or this past weekend we all watched it. we all watched it. jim, we'll see you in just a couple of minutes. up next, national economic council director larry kudlow is going to be with us. and then tomorrow, you don't want to miss our exclusive interview with robinhood's co-ceo
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it all starts at 6:00 a.m. eastern time "squawk" returns right after this
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uber and lyft are like every big guy i've ever brought down. prop 22 doesn't "help" their drivers-- it denies them benefits. 22 doesn't help women. it actually weakens sexual harassment laws, which are meant to protect them. uber and lyft aren't even required to investigate sexual harassment claims.
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i agree with the la times: no on 22. uber and lyft want all the power. so, show them the real power is you. vote no on prop 22. welcome back, everybody. white house chief of staff mark meadows says that the united states will not control the coronavirus pandemic rather, he says it will control things like vaccines and
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therapeutics we've told you this morning that new cases hit a record over the past few days. futures this morning are pointing much lower, perhaps because of this and the fact that the window for an economic stimulus package before election day is all by closed joining us right now to talk about all of this is larry kudlow, he is the white house national economic council director i want to ask you about all of these issues it's good to see you this morning, thanks for being with us. >> thank you, becky. >> let's start with those stimulus talks i'm almost embarrassed to ask. at this point it just seems like tilting at windmills my guess is we're not going to get anything done for three or four months until you wait for the new congress to be seated and for inauguration day what do you think is really happening here >> look, i don't want to make any predictions on this. the talks have certainly slowed down, but they're not ending i mean, one thing i will say is the committee chairman on both
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sides, senate and house, have been meeting, and discussing various aspects, you know, the small business loans and many other issues, different appropriations we'll get a report this morning. secretary mnuchin will be to th. i think he's going to be talking to speaker pelosi. big issue here right now is we're close but there's still important policy issues that separate us and our team believes there have to be more compromises on the house side for us to get there. becky, i don't want to be optimistic and i don't want to be pessimistic i am just reporting where i think we are secretary mnuchin will speak on it later today after he checks in with the speaker and committee chairman and sees if anything moves right now, unfortunately, the goal posts have moved and still some unanswered questions.
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>> hey, larry. we had governor from new hampshire on earlier today and he said he'd like to see every member of congress fired all 535 of them because the american people are suffering while this stimulus bill gets booted back and forth. forget it, we would be better off if we had brand-new congressional representation all the way across the board because of this. as an economist what happens if we don't see anything done between now and let's say early february >> well, look, i -- you know my view that this is a strong v-shape recovery i mean, lots of new numbers have come in. the third quarter is going to be a very positive quarter. no question about that and just recently we've had pretty big numbers on housing sales and home builder sentiment and retail sales and manufacturing, inventories have to be rebuilt. even continuing claims plunged 1
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million last week. i think the recovery, although there is a lot more work to do let me be clear on that especially on the employment side and nonetheless proceeding. probably faster than most folks thought. second point, we've already argued and you heard me say this, i think. certain areas could be helped by a deal particularly, let me repeat, i'd like to see unemployment assistance president led with an executive order on unemployment assistance the $300, plus 100 bucks in the states that's running out so, it will be a good thing. we will put half the people who have gone back to work we didn't put them in work but half of them have gone back to work. i would like to see assistance on the unemployment side and the small ppp would be helpful anything to do with helping schools open and covid-19 related renovations, they need some help. the airlines need some help. in other words, there are
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specific targeted areas. we don't need a giganticid igi d idiological bill here. i don't want to predict where, how and why and so orth, they're still talking but i acknowledge the clock is ticking and, of course, the big thing today is going to be justice barrett getting sworn in i think she won't be sworn in, but i think she will pass the senate >> hey, larry, again, your view much more targeted is needed i heard that view put out on wall street by a lot of financial leaders, too but if the democrats have a different view and nothing gets done as a result, back to that question you're right unemployment is running out. you have mortgage forbearance programs that are going to end you have eviction programs that have been preventing people from being evicted to this point that are going to end and we're
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watching the case count rise, once again which is going to have an economic impact on all of these things so, i'll ask you again if nothing gets done because the two sides can't agree which looks to me the situation right now. if nothing gets done and you don't see anything until early february what would the economy look like at that point without any of the assistance or programs being extended? >> becky, i will repeat. i think this is a strong v-shaped recovery and i believe it is self-sustaining. i think when you have the kind of housing, retailing, automobiles and consumer sentiment and plus inventory business cycle with the rebuilding of inventories and a lot of momentum going into the fourth quarter and, you know, perhaps with good policies into 2021 so, that's our basic view. so i'm just saying, it would be great if we could have certain specific targeted areas.
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but unfortunately, that is not how the negotiations have gone speaker pelosi will not yield apparently, apparently will not yield on some certain issues where there could be compromised. we'll wait and see i don't want to be optimistic or pessimistic. i'm not making a forecast. i'm just laying out what i know. committee chairmen in both houses are meeting that is a good sign. speaker pelosi thought over the weekend a deal could be reached. we shall see chief meadows spoke over the weekend and perhaps a little less optimistic. we'll get reports today. secretary mnuchin will be reporting on those reports so, let's wait and see i don't want to make any doom and gloom forecast because i am. look, again, i think the economic numbers are very, very strong right now and the one area that i am concerned about is we've made
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great progress on employment but i do think there's still a lot of hardship in the unemployment area and i just wish congress would get there and back up the american workforce >> you mentioned mark meadows and the comments he made over the weekend. the comments he made about stimulus were not all that optimistic and then when it comes to the virus, we can't control it a lot of blow back including from republican senators john thune and roy blunt who said we can't control this and it is our responsibility as leaders to be setting the example. what did you make of those comments what do you think? >> well, i haven't spoken to the chief this morning so, i think the issue here is we are getting an increase in cases, no question about it. and that is troublesome. no question about that look, our experts have side time and again and i saw it deborah
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birx report earlier this morning, this is a time when we have to maximize the use of all the key guidelines we have to protect the vulnerable first of all. people with pre-existing conditions second of all that's a high priority having said that, masking, distancing, testing where app c applicable, good hygiene and try to stay away from crowds those are the kinds of things that have worked in the past we get these pop ups i'm not sure if there is anything we can do about it. we're seeing it in europe and all around the world perhaps that's what chief meadows was referring to but we know a lot more than we knew fortunately, the fatality rate is way, way, way down than it was at the peak. i think it is about 80% to 85% down that is great news fortunately, as a lot of our people have said, we're getting closer and closer to both therapies and vaccines
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so, that's a great help. but the key point we've learned, i mean, cdc teams are going in leading teams into hot spots right now on the road and emphasizing the need for these guidelines and that's the best we can do and it has worked in the past and hopefully it will tcontinue to work. >> larry, politico reported over the weekend that mitch mcconnell has said he wouldn't go into the white house complex since august he hasn't been there because he's worried about the lax enforcement of the health procedures and seeing some of the events that come out including the coronavirus cases. >> i'm actually in the white house right now. we are respecting guidelines and we have for a good long time there is no perfect way to
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prevent positive testing there is just no perfect way we've seen this all around the world. fortunately, we've come far enough along to be able to protect our leaders and all individuals here and hopefully around the country i mean, i don't want to single out white house folks. i'm worried as much about the rest of the united states and, you know, people have to deal with this. i don't -- there's just no perfect way to do this we know what we need to do if people test positive and that includes the quarantining that's what we've done and we've come out of it pretty well the president recovered quickly and brilliantly as you saw in his debate performance that he's out on the road constantly a lot of good friends of mine and colleagues have tested positive but they're okay. i've been in touch with them
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they're okay and for what it's worth, they're all on my prayer list. we can't stop everything you just can't stop everything the best we can do is, you know, go after the therapies and observe the guidelines >> larry, i want to thank you for your time today. it is awfully good to see you. we'll talk to you soon in the meantime, folks have a good day. we'll see you back here tomorrow right now it's time for "squawk on the street. good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla record new covid cases for three straight days including some in the vice president's office. stimulus hopes remain thin we'll delve into that. in the meantime our world map begins with covid fears.


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