tv The News With Shepard Smith CNBC January 13, 2021 4:00am-5:00am EST
especially now given we're in a pandemic, and of course superm supermarkets have been so crucial getting us through does that change how france thinks about it, given how car 4 is france's largest supermarket chain with 2,000 supermarkets, 7,000 large format hypermarkets in europe. that's not the only deal in focus. the spanish telecom firm has sold its mobile phone, business in europe, and latin america to infrastructure operator american towers for 7.7 billion yur euros in cash it will reduce the net financial debt by 4.6 billion euros, and you have shares up 8.5% on the back of this news. lots of activity in m and a this morning. emmanuel cau joins us right now. great to have you on the program again. this morning we have been spending a lot of time on cnbc
talking about the potential deal between car 4 and couche-tard, there's already been nearly $94 billion worth of dealsin the past four months how are you thinking about european equities from a deal perspective. do you anticipate seeing more m and a in the coming months >> good morning, yeah, i think this is one of the markets we identified, so it seems the more and more accepted by investors, and getting quite consensus, i would say, but i think we do all believe there issupport to thi bull market, and we think there's a lot of cash that can be deployed by businesses and even the crisis in 2020, which
is not finished. the government super schemes have been a bit of self-help as well to come from the sector that could somewhat come with the macro to expect for this year so m and a, buy backs, dividends, and maybe capex as well should have sentiment this year. >> looking at europe relative to other parts of the world, market performance in 2020 was resilient, but european markets did underperform the u.s i mean, to what extent is that a draw for acquirers looking at the valuation differential between european and u.s. markets. >>ic tell you a lot of the europe underperformance was due to sector composition, and the
u.s. market was helped a lot by the strength of the tech market, the dominant sector, and europe was not able to compete simply because it doesn't have as much tech as the u.s. has we do think europe should leading the recovery just simply because the effect, one of the most benefitting, regimens from the vaccine deployment the economy that we expect to be fairly strong in europe, and that should somewhat, you know, help sentiment to come back. so we think that is the case for europe, and equities to catch up with the u.s. from a positioning standpoint, from a valuation standpoint, we do find them quite attractive, and on top of that, the economy does rebound as we expect, europe should be a prime beneficiary of an
improving sentiment. this can bottom up support with more business action activity, m and a which could make it a relevant part of the market for global investors. >> certainly juliana and i have spoken to a bunch of analysts the last couple of days, and that is the mood out there people are turning more positive on european equities we did see a good performance in the last quarter of 2020, particularly after november that seemed to be a turning point as far as investor sentiment was concerned but a lot of that was just characterized by multiple expansion. do you think this year we're also going to see earnings growth as well drive the performance of equities? >> there's a lot of hope priced in the market, and the catalyst for this that we had in q4 in november and december was the vaccine announcement that
basically opened the door to some kind of return to normality in 2021. we think 2021 will be the year of confirmation. we need to see indeed the economy will react well to the vaccination. because positive surprise has moved higher, you are seeing pretty much most of the equity market trading high multiples and the expectation from consensus on earnings are very optimistic already, so expectation is quite high. we see that compared to origins, europe is still looking attractive because valuation and some of the like china and the u.s., and statement we see the biggest growth given
positipositionin after a year of significant under performance. so the market in europe is mostly about value sectors, deep cyclicals that need the strong economy background to perform, and we think some of it should be performed as the year goes through. >> how closely are you watching rising bond yields to determine the outlook from here? it's not just u.s. yields that have risen we're also seeing it in europe as well. the 10 year bund is back to levels in months. >> the bund market was pretty much the last shoe to drop so we have seen for addition of 2020 commodity prices going up, and chinese recovery getting a
lot of, you know, bid from investors into places, but the bund market was very much behind us and so far in the last couple of days particularly because of the shift in the u.s. congress turning to the democrats now, we have seen stimulus e finally, a we do see at this stage, bund is going up, a more blessing, not a cure for the because it should allow some rotation. it was a lot of money put in safe asset this year money market trends or bunds and leaves the market warming upg to the inflation that drives from bonds to equities, and within the equity market, higher yields should drive rotation from the
expense expensive bond proxies, as we look at tech sectors, this is where europe could see a benefit of being exposed to value and cyclicals. that's the part of the market that should seem very depressed and would benefit from a shift in the bond market we see if rising yields will be a progressive process. we don't expect significant bonds, but that should be a logical development if we are indeed on the path to recovery and to inflation >> when you mentioned value and cyclicals, i can't help but think about the u.k. market. you have published this morning a fresh deep dive on the u.k. and the headline that i see, the u.k. is back on investors' radar, how do you think investors can make money out of the u.k. is there a trade to be had within the u.k., 250 versus the ftse 100, for example, or the e?
we simply believe the investability of the u.k. should improve now that the big risk of brexit is out of the way the last three or four years, we have seen investors leaving for a lot of reasons, firstly because you have the significant binaryt driven and at the same time, the u.k. market or the composition of the u.k. market is value we have kind of tech rules market forming now as you see less uncertainty on the front, and at the same time, you know, some of the value sectors back in the game, we think that should help as u.k. market, and it's been like that for many years. one of the worst performing indexes last year. looks attractive and very
expensive asset prices the diversity portfolio, a lot of commodities, financial sector in the indetecx. at the same time, it has exposure to utilities. it's hard to see the u.k. market strongly outperforming if we have the more development, but we have seen some of the value part of the market should make it more relevant for foreign investors. we have ftse to 50 and domestic simply because this part of the market strongly out performed. >> right >> has a big influence into the vote and is looking a bit more consensus now. >> just to round up the discussion, i'm going to end it with a question very similar to the topic that we opened with and that is about your view on grocers and retailers in 2021. obviously we started off the show talking about the potential
tie up between carrefour, and kouche-tard, and especially carrefour who has had to shift to more online in the year of the pandemic >> part of this is a bit behind the curve of moving to online. it had a bit of a boost from the pandemic, and basically the fairly resilient spending from consumer on basic products but in terms of a business evolution, some of it needs to adapt quickly to more online way of doing it. so it's a very diverse sector, extreme into valuation and performance. it has done extremely well last year, quite expensive. you know, you could see it as a comeback from the more old school, but of course they need
to adapt to the new way of consumption. >> all right we'll leave it there thank you so much for joining us this morning emanuel cao. a look at european markets, we're an hour and 15 minutes into the trading session and european markets are inching higher we opened up the session muted as equities search for a direction. we are taking a more definitive step higher. french index up .3, spanish and u.k. markets performing well ftse lagging behind, essentially flat, and the swing and a miss market up 0.2% looking at sectors, this is where the more interesting trading trends are coming through. oil and gas, outperforming the broader market this follows a strong day yesterday for energy in the u.s. that was the best performing sector in the u.s. telecoms also performing well.
signs," everybody. i just want to bring you some lines we're getting from the ecb president, christine lagarde as she's speaking at the reuters summit lagarde is saying that some has cleared, brexit, the u.s. election we are still in the first stage of the vaccine rollout, and the earliest stage has been laborious, but that the start of
the year has been more positive than some argue. also adding that their december economic projections are still clearly plausible. just as a reminder as of december, they had european gdp rebounding this year by as much as 3.9%, this after contraction of 7.3% in 2020. so some pretty positive or medium positive commentary coming from christine lagarde, and also just as well, she's also saying that it is key to unlock some of those european recovery funds very quickly, and this is something that we have heard from her before, clearly pushing on the fiscal side of things to get some of that support also released for the market as soon as possible >> interesting to hear her -- thank you so much. i was just going to say, it was interesting to see madame lagarde's word choice describing the vaccine rollout, saying the
earliest stage has been laborious, perhaps a nod that it will become easier as authorities and government become better at the logistics side of things germany will need to maintain most of its coronavirus restrictions through the start of february. saying people will need to reduce contact for as much as three more months. the u.s. center for disease control says international airline passengers will soon need to provide negative covid tests before entering the country. in a bid to curb the spread of the disease. travelers to the u.s. will need to get tested within three days of their flight, regardless of their vaccination status starting january 26th. pfizer ceo albert bourla has welcomed the new trump administration guidelines expanding covid vaccine eligibility to americans 65 and older. speaking exclusively to cnbc he added the drug maker has enough
supply of its vaccine to support the decision. >> i think this is exactly what needs to be done, and i think so far, i don't think that we have any offering less vaccine in the countries, that the countries frankly need we have much more than they can use. i think the main point right now is to ramp up operations so it can administer more vaccines we will increase dramatically our production for this year up to 2 billion doses, and feel comfortable we'll be able to deliver that. >> meanwhile, eli lilly ceo david ricks told cnbc that pre-clinical studies have shown the antibody treatment can be effective against the u.k. variant of the virus. >> the u.k. variant gets a lot of press because it's probably 50% more contagious, though there's no evidence it's more lethal it seems clear the single antibody from lily, and probably the cocktail from regeneron will
arrest that just like it does the normal variant we haven't done a clinical study but we have pre-clinical data that's highly suggest i have that - suggestive that that's not going to be an issue >> the south african variant is the real concern here. it has more dramatic mutations to that spike protein, which is the target of the antibody drugs and the target for vaccine, so echoing some concerns we have heard among the medical community in recent weeks. one other thing i would highlight that came through yesterday on the vaccine front, it was the trump administration's decision to adjust its guidelines, now opening up vaccine eligibility to everybody 65 years and older, and anybody kwwho has a preexisting health condition that's a significant change in strategy from the u.s. >> and also it's not just the change in strategy in terms of opening it up, but also in terms of the one dose, two dose
regimen. remember, we spoke about this when the u.k. government went down that route and instead of inoculating people four weeks apart, we're going to spread it to three months apart and get as many people as possible inoculated with the baseline immunity it's interesting to see the u.s. talk about it, and potentially europe as well that could have huge consequences, particularly as you say, in light of rapidly spreading mutations, you need to get as many people as possible vaccinated as soon as possible, and that is the big challenge, something of course that we're watching very closely. it's a quick break now when we come back, deutsch post has upped its guidance thanks to a boost from a pandemic fueled surge in ecommerce, we're going to be talking more about that and a lot more in the second half of the show we'll be right back.
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julianna tatelbaum mike pence rejects -- setting up a political show down in washington. >> the impeachment hoax is the continuation of the greatest and most vicious witch hunt in the history of our country and is causing tremendous anger and division and pain, far greater than most people will ever understand >> major m and a activity here in europe this morning carrefour shares flying off the shelves after the french retailer confirms it's in early merger talks with canadian convenience store giant couche-tard. and telefonica shares, a $7.7 billion to sell its mobile phone business in europe and latin america, and vows to pay down billions of euros in debt >> and deutsch post delivers posting a 56% jump in
preliminary q4 operating budget, and hiking outlook telling cnbc he sees strength even after the pandemic boost ecommerce boom fades. >> you see a healthy development that more people are getting to the middle class level and they will ask for more products, more services, and they will be provided on a global scale because people want to have value for money. >> we have been gaining a bit of positive momentum over the last half hour. every major market in europe is trading in the green after a muted start. we've got the french market out in start up about a third of a percent. the ftse has crossed into positive territory we've got the ftse 100 about 7 basis points higher. overall, investors are proceeding cautiously but putting more money to work in european equities.
turning to 4 x, let's take a look at the currency moves this morning, the euro trading on the back foot, about 0.16% overall, the dollar is gaining a little bit of ground, up 5 basis points right now, and we've got sterling trading versus the dollar up about 0.2%, bucking the trend we were seeing elsewhere, which is dollar strength we've got green on the board for u.s. markets the dow looking to open about 60 points higher. overall, we're looking at more gains. like we're seeing in europe, muted in terms of magnitude. this follows a strong day yesterday for u.s. cyclicals, with energy outperforming banks, outperforming at the expense of those pandemic winners, media, biotech, and software. well, let's turn to one of the big corporate stories here in europe today. deutsche post has raised its
2022 outlook the german post and freight company was boosted by a surge in ecommerce during the pandemic pretty positive guidance we're hearing from deutsche post, and no surprise that ecommerce activity picked up during 2020 but tell us more about the outloom, and i know that you have spoken to the ceo as well >> not only 2022, it's also 2021, so essentially the hiking the outlook over a two-year time horizon, and they're super positive because it's not only the ecommerce business, it's essentially their long haul freight, the express business which is doing especially well it's plus 12% to 19 billion euro in terms of sales in the last quarter, and that trend seems to be here to stay, and what they're saying is that of course
they're benefitting from no pause in trade as the say, but also from the rollout, and that there will at some point in time be a normalization what the ceo of deutsche post frank appel really believes it take a listen to where he sees the bottlenecks. >> the logistics is not a problem. we are playing an important role in that, as well as our competitors, the governments are rolling up their sleeves as well i said already recently, the picture will be much better, and we will be closer to a normal life then again, if we continue to produce enough vaccine the limitation is the production rate not the distribution rate, but when i read the news myself, i think we can be collectively very optimistic that we will get a lot of vaccine soon. >> with all of that demand in the coming years, they have
ordered eight new boeing triple 7 aircrafts in order to bolster their fleet of aircraft around the world. as i was saying, they are strongly believing that trade is going to grow in the next year and the corona crisis, once we have the vaccine will be over. there will be no permanent effect on globalization. when it comes to their cash, what they're planning on doing with it, that's not yet decided. of course they're spending on capex, for example, the aircrafts, but there is also room, most likely for doing more share policy but that needs to be decided in the coming weeks before they are meeting for the final numbers on march 9th and also when they have the agm, so i guess the closed close to record highs, according to analysts has room for more with that, back to you. >> well, you've allowed me to
segue very nicely because we have one of those analysts joining us right now on the show thank you for giving us the overview of the deutsche post resulted today i'm happy to bring in senior search analyst from bernstein, great to have you with us, our colleague highlighted the take aways from the outlook released by deutsche post this morning. the stock has more than doubled in price since the pandemic lows last year. we got to as low as 20 euros now north of 40. where do we go from here, and are you still positive on the outlook as well? >> yes, we're still very positive, and good morning to you. we've got deutsche post on the target price of 50 euros we think there are more legs ent into the year. the ecommerce tail wind will continue because we're having a step change in the business model. we'll seat the economy recovering what they didn't talk about that
much is there is a global shortage in air freight supply, and deutsche post is uniquely positioned to benefit from that. >> daniel, looking at the guidance that the company has given, they're now expecting 2021 to be above 2020's figures, which puts it above where current consensus sits they have also offered some encouraging commentary all the way out to 2022. what actually under pins this bullish outlook, given that a lot of boosters to growth this year have been pandemic related and what kind of earnings upside do you see from here what kind of revisions can we expect from analysts >> i think the context is important that before we went into the pandemic, deutsche post had just completed a marathon restructuring in each of their five business units, and so that's something that will come into play as we get out of the pandemic and business-to-business shipments increase again, and global trade
increases again because that produces operating leverage. that gives them confidence in seeing the numbers they're seeing not quite oneoff but the supernatural ecommerce effect in their business at a time when business-to-business volumes are very low, and i think it's very reasonable of them to expect that to shift we think there's probably still a good 15 to 20% up side on consensus numbers in 2021, and a good 10 to 15% in 2022 the real question is what is going to happen with the cash flow because they're keeping their capex guidance constant. they're producing more cash flow i think the cash flow guidance they gave yesterday is a little bit on the conservative side we see them reaching 3 billion free cash flow per year next year, and that will really spark some interesting capital allocation discussions >> so there's the promise potentially of some returns to
investors as well from that perspective. one other topic that you mentioned is the fact that one of the tail winds for deutsche post has been the disruption in air freight activity due to the pandemic a lot of that activity has slowed down. when do you expect air freight activity to return back to normal, and do you think that deutsche post will manage to hang on and maintain this increased market share that it's got due to the traditional forms of freight activity being disrupted. >> what of course happened during the pandemic is long haul aircraft stopped flying, and passenger long haul aircraft accounts for more than half of the world's international air fright supply. with that missing, the question really is how fast will all of us start flying long haul again. we're not that optimistic. we think it will take until 2024, 25, until we reach 2019 levels again
the shortage in the air fright supply will last a couple of years. what really happens here is that as cargo is unable to get on to traditional air freight, it has to choose the more expensive express. the main benefit deutsche post is seeing is an operating lift we think this is a tail wind that will die down or reduce over the next couple of years, but it will be here for a couple of years and provide a strong lift to express earnings. >> daniel, if i can just broaden the conversation out i know you cover european airlines as well, the european transport sector you talk about the return to normal in international travel when do you expect to see a meaningful return and uptick in activity of leisure and business, those two different segments and what do you think are the valuations in the airline sector right now. >> exactly as you said our view is ledger will return before business, and short haul
will return before long haul travel we expect a meaningful uptick between easter and summer, and i think even the extent of lock downs right now don't dissuade us from that view. we should be in place by march, april, to reduce a lot of the government restrictions still hanging on to air travel in terms of valuations, it's -- there still is a significant upside in the sector we prefer the low cost airlines, the top names would be whiz or ryan air if you look further down the list, you could look at an easy jet or ieg that have upside. there's a little bit of everything that's smaller, basically or more indebted france, fin air, norwegian, all of those, that's where valuations are really tricky it's still difficult to see when those airlines that have increased by factors of 40, 60, 70% of their ev, would be able to repay that net debt
so your investment subset of equities you can look at is really small right now, but on those, the market's fairly efficient, and pricing a little bit of risk, and if you have a view on the recovery this year, we would suggest to go along on whiz or ryan air. >> appreciate you joining us this morning daniel rosca, senior analyst at bernstein. coming up on the show. u.s. vice president mike pence will not use the t25th amendment to move trump from office, as more republican lawmakers back the call for a second impeachment. more on the fallout from the capitol hill riots after the break. >> man: what's my safelite story? my truck...is my livelihood. so when my windshield cracked... the experts at safelite autoglass came right to me... with service i could trust. right, girl? >> singers: ♪ safelite repair, safelite replace. ♪ so you want to make the best burger ever? then make it!
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not apply for an esm loan. the show down continues today with a recovery meeting to improve the recovery plans if you want to set your agenda for today, that press conference is expected to take place at 5:30 p.m. local, which is 4:30 p.m. london time a lot of questions in the market about what exactly mateo renzi is going to do from here, whether they stay in the government or leave the government which could set in place quite a lot of turmoil because prime minister conte would be under pressure to either reshuffle the cabinets or step down or even in an extreme scenario, it could lead to snap elections. that one of the reasons we saw i tan -- today all fixed income is rallying back. you can see that the german bund is about 2 1/2 basis points lower in yield, italian ten years at 60 basis points, about
3 1/2 basis points lower in yield as well. this is following on from the move that we had in u.s. treasuries the theme for u.s. treasuries the last couple of days has been a major selloff. towards the close yesterday after and into a ten-year auction, we did see yields rally back the ten-year note in the u.s. is about 1.6 basis points lower today, back to a 112 handle, and no doubt many investors are watching what's happening in yield space very very closely because as one of our guests put it earlier, it is the last drop in inflationary trades playing out. something investors are watching closely. >> investors watching developments in washington from both sides of the atlantic u.s. vice president mike pence says he will not invoke the 25th amendment to remove president trump from office. following last week's deadly siege on the capitol in a letter to house speaker nancy pelosi, pence says it's quote not in the interest of the country. the house will begin debating on impeaching president trump later today, potentially making him the first president in history to be impeached twice.
at least four republicans have joined democrats in their effort to impeach president trump, liz cheney is the highest ranking republican to call for the president's impeachment in the wake of wednesday's deadly capitol hill riot. three other republican house members, john katko, adam kinzinger, and fred upton said they would vote for impeachment. president trump has dismissed calls for removal. >> free speech is under assault like never before. the 25th amendment is of zero risk to me, but will come back to haunt joe biden and the biden administration as the expression goes, be careful what uyou wish for. the impeachment hoax is a continuation of the greatest and most vicious witch hunt in the history of our country and is causing tremendous anger and division and pain far greater than most people will ever understand, which is very dangerous for the usa,
especially at this very tender time >> well, you tube has joined other social media giants in taking action against president trump, banning him from uploading new content for at least seven days the google owned company has disabled comments on trump's channel indefinitely, citing concerns about violence. this follows similar moves by facebook and twitter i'm happy to bring in jasmine mcnealy, an attorney and associate professor of telecommunications at the university of florida. thank you so much for taking the time to speak with us today. i just want to take it back to the events and developments in the last couple of days, which is that almost all of the major big tech and social media platforms have either permanently suspended or temporarily suspended president trump's accounts, and a lot of critics are saying that this is direct violation of the first amendment. i guess the question becomes a
philosophical one, what are the limitations of free speech, and is it right that social media platforms are the ones deciding what goes up and what doesn't. >> you know, that's a great question it's one we have been grappling with for quite a while now as a general matter, when we say in the united states that someone has first amendment protection for their expression, it means that they are allowed to say it without say or express themselves without government necessarily prohibiting or punishing it, and it's been interpreted meaning private individuals or private organizations, when they take action to stop someone from speaking for the most part, it's not a first amendment violation. at the same time, we know that social media organizations and these huge media organizations like google, like facebook, like many others have a unique concentration of power as it relates to communication, as it relates to expression, particularly expression where
people get a lot of information, and ta lot of information in a timely or rapid way. when there's a concentration of power, and when there are organizations that can stop speech, there comes the questio of whether or not maybe we need to start some kind of power analysis, and that may include free expression analysis of these media organizations. >> and probably something that's going to be a big focus for the incoming biden administration. one other angle is that they will get to appoint a new chairman ffor the fcc, and there's been a major discussion about the future of section 230, which is the law that grants immunity to social media platforms from the content that is posted on their platforms by users. how do you see that one playing out, and is it likely that section 230 does end up getting revoked by the biden
administration >> i definitely see a incoming democrat-led congress putting section 230 up for revision. there have been in the past couple of years some proposed revisions related to extremist content, content moderation, of course, really concern about particularly children accessing certain information. but all people accessing or being exposed to certain information. section 230 started out as a really modest claim for media organizations in the early '90s when we have the first advent of commercial kind of social media. the bulletin boards that we had back nthen, and it started out a a way for organizations to take action related to false speech, related to violent speech that started appearing on these platforms. what it has grown into and been
interpreted as is probably way more broad than the original folks ever could have imagined and it has covered a number of different things, although it's not an absolute in any manner, but i certainly see incoming democrat controlled congress putting section 230 up for, the thing is it will be a difficult thing to amend without also harming the other process, the other kind of speech, the other communities that have grown up and been allowed to express themselves and expand on social media, on media just in general because of section 230 >> you mentioned the word power several times, talking about these tech giants, when it comes to this big question around them removing people, removing content from their platforms antitrust is a huge regulatory issue when it comes to these companies. how do these moves from the tech
giants to de platform, ban politicians, fit into the antitrust debate, does it actually raise the likelihood that lawmakers will crack down on these companies and try to go down the antitrust route and potentially break them up? >> i can definitely see that this would be brought up in any antitrust hearings or investigations, right, so concentration of power is one of those questions that is of concern in anti trust investigations, and particularly we want to know who is controlling the market in this case, what is the market for communications, but more importantly, what's the market for expression can people find alternative platforms or alternative sites where they can get and express themselves so get expression, we see the expression some, with several different entities on twitter, several different entities on facebook or google or what's
app. can they find a similar market, a similar place to express themselves or are they limited one thing we're not, you know, we don't take into account is even if we have, oh, nobody has to be on these platforms if we are not on certain platforms or if people choose not to be on platforms, that's certainly their choice, there are opportunity costs from not being on certain platforms, so the ability to get newsrapidly, right, the ability to share information. the ability to reach certain audiences and broader audiences, which is a power issue, which certain comes into play, although it is not the crux of an antitrust investigation, but it certainly will add to evidence related to concentration of power >> all right thank you so much, jasmine, for joining us really appreciate hearing your views. jasmine mcnealy, attorney associate professor telecommunications, and she is joining us from the university
of florida let's take a look at u.s. futures and how wall street is poised to open up today. we've got the dow set to open 50 points higher if these levels hold the tech heavy nasdaq looking at a 40 point jump at the open. the s&p looking at an essentially flat jump to trade, similar to what we saw yesterday. looking at the overall moves, it did mask some of the major rea rea reation, media, biotech and software, we'll see if those trends continue today. that's it for today's show, i'm julianna tatelbaum with joumanna berc bercetche. ""worldwide exchange"" is coming your way next.
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. it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters and here are your top five at five. we begin with the stage being set for the second impeachment of president trump as he faces further crack down from the tech sector we're live in washington with the very latest. then we turn to the increasing political tensions in washington ushering in a wave of caution among investor, and stocks find themselves in a bit of a holding pattern. and a developing authority as one of the top officials in the federal push for a coronavirus vaccine is now announcing his exit. and president-elect biden ap