- [group] grubhub! - [announcer] grub what you love. >> welcome back to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner streaking stocks the s&p going for the seventh straight update. the nasdaq topping 15,000 for the first time ever and why some say your money is about to get another boost. we debate the markets with our investment committee today stephanie link, josh brown, jon najarian and jason snipe is principal of odyssey advisers. the tech market is alive and well there is the nasdaq still above 14,000 today and modest losses for the dow and s&p. russell still positive josh, you look at the state of

stocks, that's where we begin. the s&p is going for seven days in a row you have the nasdaq above 14 so tech's working again you have good vaccine news you've got stimulus progressing and rates down it's kind of hard to build a negative case for stocks, isn't it >> it's not hard if you're trying to, and we have this really interesting com bunbinatn of things happening right now which is new highs for virtually every sector and geographic regions all over the world japan, for example, making a breakout of a 29-year base so while you've got all these new highs and all of these different segments of the market cooperating and participating, you also have a huge boom in people being angry, so that's kind of weird, i guess but that's what's happening right now on the street and off the street, financials, social media and there's just a lot of people that have a lot invested and it's not happening, so, but it is. the run on the russell 2000,

judge, is really off the charts. we're off 16% in u.s. small caps year to date what the hell is going on? it's february 9th and that's quadruple the return in the s&p. i'm looking at you, amazon, going sideways since july, right? so you have a lot of big stocks that you thought were the horsemen getting it done, not getting it done and then you've got this secondary and tertiary tier of names. look at twitter. this is a red hot stock right now. this is the stock of the moment. everything they've done since the drop-off, the street loves it they're talking about subscription revenue, they should have done this five years ago, but whatever. the stock's above 60 for the first time since it came public in '13 or '14 and then lastly, really quick, xbi, small, mid and large biotechs up 24% year to date in that equal weight index, which means there are

biotechs up 50% or 60% since the year started it's remarkable and throw in the bank, regionals and kre making a 52-week high to your point, what are you looking at if you're bearish right now? literally, what are you looking at i don't understand >> steph, josh paints a nice canvas for you to work off of right now. what do you think about the points that he made? amid commentary on the street today that the pendulum swings both ways. one day it's we're going to the moon the next day it's a correction is getting more likely or it's already here we're trying to build the negative short-term case because stocks are, you know, overextended that's the bulk of the negative case amid a backdrop that's so positive >> you don't want to be negative not with the liquidity that we continue to talk about and we've been talking about this, scott, since march of last year massive, massive amounts of

liquidity. m2 is up 26% year over year. that's unprecedented and we're going to get more and it looks like the $1.9 trillion package from the biden administration. it sounds like that number might come in at that number instead of a watered down version. you're talking about massive liquidity. you do not want to fight that. you add on low interest rates and progress on the vaccines and people gettinging them and you will see better earnings and this is why i lean more cyclical versus growth, but i do own a combination of both. back to gdp, we've been seeing pockets do quite well. we've talked about housing we've talked about auto and manufacturing. last week the manufacturing and services both beat and new earnings were quite strong and customer inventories were depleted and the factory orders numbers were doing great and most importantly, the consumer is poised to spend eventually. i don't know the timing of that, but they have 14% in savings,

and typically on average it's only 5% and that's a pent up of potential spending that is coming down the pike and it will come down the pike it's just a matter of fining and 4.6 trillion the average, 2.8 trillion. so there is still money on the side lines and this is a favorable liquidity backdrop. >> jason, it's like where else will you put your money? it inevitably comes down to that as much as people sort of scoff at that thought, really, where else will you put your money other than in u.s. stocks? >> absolutely. i agree with all the points mentioned and for me, the liquidity theme is just such an important theme. we had 900 billion pass in december and surely it will probably happen in the next weeks.

interest rates low, the vaccine progress and when i look at the ten-year and the movement there and the three-year moving at 2%. market sentiment is be very strong here. so, yes, we have to be in stocks and i don't know what the case is, but yeah, you have to be here >> i mean, i look at the headline of a few moments ago. the pfizer saying it will deliver 50 million more vaccines this quarter than originally promised so that's a positive thing, doc. you have been steadfast, though n looking for a correction for the last several weeks are you wondering whether it's not going to happen or if it did happen already and it's already over like mike wilson throwing in the towel yesterday >> well, scott, we did have two 600-point declines, at least two, maybe three within the last six weeks so i was able to get out of stock in many of those cases and then on those dips, buy in with the options that you

and i talk about how you can control your risk when you do that so i'm not rooting against the market by any means and as far as to your trade about technology and things like that, the stock that you and i talked about last week, terradata this is hybrid cloud analytics software and that stock doubled in a week, scott i talked about it on this air last week, and in less than that week, in just that week, the stock doubled and it was a $3 billion stock, and it was 26 or 27 buck, scott and now it's $56. there are plenty of areas where you can get a lot of outperformance out of this market beyond the faangs and that's what you asked us to find and talk about last week and that's one of the names and there are a host of others, but one of the key components here is the cloud still it's not just azure over at microsoft or aws or any of the

google cloud services. it is also people that do analytics of that, and analytics of data. look at palantier and those are the names i'm focused on -- >> go ahead, sorry. >> terradata up 111% month to date and there are a lot of other dow-related stocks. >> in less than a week >> maybe not by that much, but cloud flares up 22%. work day up almost 20. cloudera up almost 20. coopa, data dogs up almost 15 and zoom's had a. >> and jason snipe, you bought more twillio, and you bought some more alphabet tell us. >> so twillio, i really like how they've streamlined the virtual interaction between the customer and the business

so the top line revenue growth expectations are 30% year over year for the next four years, and i just really like that software as a service theme, and then google for us, advertising, they had blowout earnings 22% ad revenue growth there search, big data google is a nice place to be compared to the other faang names we just thought it was a nice entry point to continue here >> twillio, not to be -- it's up 13% in just one month. the stock gets upgraded today, jason by j.p. morgan, $465 is the price target and they see it going to 465 and they list five or six tailwinds behind that stocks even though stocks have run a lot and these enterprise names have run a lot and it makes some people say, well, it's got to

s stop some time maybe they're ahead of that measure. maybe not. maybe not. jason? >> yeah. so i think absolutely. i agree with all of the points there there. i think there's tremendous upside and again, only one of the five, if i think about the penetration in the large, addressable market that twil yoplaitwilio plays and there's upside there some of the software names i don't put in the same camp as twilio, but there is more upside here. >> josh, you bought more uber and more live nation very much re-open plays that you are talking about. you have things that are working all over the place whether it's the financial, whether it's energy tech has woken from its slumber. you've got re-opening plays that are working and again, these vaccine headlines that i bring you with the likes of pfizer delivering more than expected

this quarter is only going to be a boon for stocks like that. >> let me tell you something, player i've spent my entire career being a believer in capitalism, american exceptionalism, business being the solution to most problems, ingenuity, science. i was never in doubt that we would have a re-opening, but i don't have any med ical trainin to say oh, it will be the summer of '21 i couldn't have told you that last year. you would have said who the hell are you? i invested as if there would be a tomorrow i have no choice i have an 11-year-old and a 14-year-old. i have to believe that there is a future so making -- look. i bought simon properties and they told me it's going bankrupt i'll take that risk that it's not. i think i bought that in the

60s. the stock is up 200 and something percent so i always was invested and even recently bought live nation for the first time and added to it a week later and added to uber and i'm unsubstantially and i'm buying on the way up. i'm hot right now. i'm like nick jonas and nice with the re-open stocks and my tech names i didn't throw them out just because we're going to re-open. so i wasn't, like, let me get rid of zoom and alphabet and amazon because we're re-opening. that's not the way i'm in this thing. so i'm long. i own stocks right now and relatively recent purchases that i think have the most to benefit from the re-open of the economy, and i think this summer we're going to go off. like, i think people are going to be going nuts in the cities this summer. we're approaching and maybe not herd immunity, but at least among young people, we're approaching the area where

almost everyone has the disease or is vaccinated and i think these stocks have a lot of upside left and i want to be in them for when it happens and i'm not saying they're all chieap an i know they've gone up a lot and i don't think people are bullish enough about the second half of '21. stephanie made a really great point and i'll add to that m-2 money supply is up 26% year over year. think about that the average since the 1970s and m-2 money supply and not money sitting like a dead body on a balance sheet and the average is 6% a year. i just told you. it's 26% all year and there's too much money and i think she's dead right, and i think that money will be spent back on travel experiences, leisure. i want to be in those names. >> so on that point, steph, bernstein says to expect more

inflows, quote, inflows are running in pace that is at the upper end of the 30-year range and we think on that more inflows will come. the question is where is that money going to go? you have a relatively newish position in ibm and a play in broadcom and what's your big theme? where are you looking in the market >> well, i still do like technology, and i have a cyclical bent in technology and you know i have a cyclical bent in my portfolio, so i am overweight in industrial, financials and materials, and i don't want to give up on secular growth completely, and i still do have a good position in alphabet i i'm adding on the cyclical search, and i'm about broadcom and semiconductor and that's got to be the best in the semiconductor space, in my opinion. it's all about auto and payments, believe it or not. ibm is pretty new. i bought it a couple of weeks

ago and it's the new ceo and he's focused on ai, data analytic, cloud, all of the things you want them focusing on and the culture is changing there. the red hat ceo who is now the president of ibm, he's a trooper. he's brilliant so i love that he's there, as well, and of course, i own fort now because cyber security is here it trades 10% discount to its peers and they're changing their product set to get more enterprise business and i think that's enterprising. i do like pockets of tech and i have these other sectors that are overweight because gdp will be better than expected and we've been seeing a lot of the strategists and economists in the last couple of weeks revise up 6%, 7%, this year and i still don't think people believe that. >> so your ibm move raises an interest question, i think, as to whether some of the money that is still on the side liners on in other areas like money

markets, as you say, steph, goes into these big dow laggards and by laggards, ones that are significantly trading their all-time highs like an ibm which is still 22% below their highs which you're adding to chevron still down 20% salesforce is down 16% from its high which you own is that a place where some money will go? boeing, ibm, coca-cola, pmg, verizon, united health and all of those stocks with the exception of walgreens and double digit, at least below their highs. >> if you want me to go first, you know i own boeing. it's one of my largest industrial positions it is all about free cash flow improvement as they get the 737 max out the door liquidity is still very, very strong and actually new orders just came out for jarnnuary that

were better than expected and that is a work in progress, but i do like that very much ibm, i will continue to be there. chevron i added to, as well, because even though the quarters was kind of messy and i think they'll announce a buyback program for next year and coke i is a re-open name because 50% of the sales is on prim and it acts terribly, right? the stock price, so i like that management team and their product set and i hope that that's where investors are going, but this is where i see real value in the marketplace and these are the names i'd be adding to. >> are these the next names to watch. you own salesforce 16% below its high and p and g which is 12.5% below its high >> i continue to like salesforce i think big data is a very important thing going into this hybrid economy the acquisition is slack and immediately accretive. i know they're still trading at

a premium, but i still like the name p and go is a different story and that is a hold for me and as a dividend player and they've been levered to the far east over 60% of their business done overseas and the there are has increased some, but it's still generally weak, but i see the product growth overseas so it's still a hold for me. >> you know, i mentioned what's happening in energy and financials and the bid that those stocks have gotten and it's been significant. over the last three months the financials are up 15% and the xle is up 32%. in terms of looking for areas to make money, jon najarian, are you a believer that financials and energy stocks can continue to work even though they've had some significant gains in what have a relatively short period of time? >> well, you know, for months, scott, we've been talking about the roaring '20s and roaring

'21s and the opening play and that is a significant driver given how much cutbacks we've had in rude oil production and that's why we've seen energy prices spike in that area and that's also good for a lot of the green energy plays because they become more competitive at those higher prices for crude oil. overall, scott, when you're watching these stocks, bank stocks will be only limited if that two versus ten spread if that keeps getting steeper, the banks keep working if we back off after getting off of the 120th level, if we back off then the banks take a pause, but i don't see that coming at all for the energy plays that you and i just discussed because quite frankly, reopening means demand and demand will drive that with a smaller amount of

supply out there because even when they turn the supply back on, it's not just a light witch, it takes a while with those capsed and not completed energy works for longer and i think banks can turn it up on the ten-year. >> josh, go ahead and then jason, i'll get to you with a buy. >> on that point about the spread, in my opinion, this is the single most important thing happening right now. we know that the fed is not inclined to do anything on overnight rates until the first quarter of 2022 almost by their own admission. we all know the threshold for them to decide that inflation is a threat is, like, a higher bar than ever its ever been in history. they're talking about income in, quality as part of that discussion so if we know that and we

continue to see that ten-year rise just pull up a chart of berkshire hathaway this is important and this stock is breaking a multi-top peak that dates back to early 2018. it's not an almost breakout. it's a breakout in progress. think about companies sitting with massive war chests in cash, with insurance subsidiaries have more money coming in than they know what to do with and no way to earn money in a risk-free way. i want to look at asset managers, broker dealers and berkshire hathaway could be the next mega-cap breakout this stock has done nothing in a very long time both in absolute terms and relative to the market massive market cap and huge implications if this thing gets on its horse for the rest of the quote, unquote, value cyclical trade. i think jon correctly highlights

that spread and all eyes are glued on it. now do the other thing you were going to do. >> i was going to come to you are about berkshire after i went to jason because he's keenly focused on the 210 spread that you were talking about, but nonetheless, is still works this way any way with you, jason with your buy of the vanguard financials and very much 210 is what you're looking at. >> absolutely. so when i think about as previously mentioned, the spread between the two and ten is the widest it's been since 2017 and i mentioned at the top of the show the 30-year flirting with 2% so we've owned the kre early we bought that in december, but vfh is giving us broad-based exposure to the larger banks and kind of following the spread very closely i think there's upside, and i think it will continue to moderately grow throughout this year so i know it's run a lot since november, but i do think there's continued opportunity.

>> a lot of these stocks have. including, steph, wells fargo which is up 38% over the last three months >> yeah, and it's still pretty cheap at .8 times book value it's a recovery play and it's a restructuring play it's going to take time, but i still like it very much. i think the kitchen sinked the quarter -- actually the last two quarters, but i think they're in a good position to build off of the momentum that they're starting to see. i like the fact that they have all new, executive leadership and that will take time to synergize and i like that very much and they needed it, quite frankly and that's why it's cheap and we have to get the asset cap lifted and i don't know when that's going to be, and that will be a huge day for the stock and i don't know when, but i want to play with that for sure >> give me something on the financials and where you currently sit and what you're looking to do. >> well, you know, i'm a big fan of the financials that also have exposure to transactions and in

particular bitcoin, scott. so paypal with venmo and square with their cash app. those are the two that i would focus on most heavily. of course, you love j.p. morgan, key bank and capital one and a host of wells fargo that i own, as well and those that i have additional exposure, scott, that's like that octane that causes those to go higher faster than those other names >> look, part of our point here, too, as again, one day you get a slew of notes that tell you the correction's over, and that the market is just going go nicely up from here, right? you have 4,000 calls that say a correction is coming, what i want to know from everybody before we go to you, steph, before we take a break is even if we do get another pullback of whatever magnitude, josh, it's going to be bought it's going to be snapped up and it will be snapped up hard

because a, there's too much money on the sideline and b, the story is too good to try to go against. even if you think a correction is coming you're hoping that it might so you can buy more. >> dude, u.s. households saved 2.9 -- $2.9 trillion last year, okay like, this doesn't happen. it's not normal. we had ri recession that led to there are 2 trillion in household savings and it's bananas. people have playbooks from past recessions do yourself a favor. literally line a birdcage with that okay this is unprecedented, but we know human nature and we understand fear and greed. we understand cost of capital and the fact that people have to return and return on something, and not just people, every pool in the world and let the very

obvious backdrop be the backdrop i think the biggest risk is some kind of wild mutation that nobody's thinking of that kills faster and that will spook the market or somebody from the fed saying something in front of an open market that they shouldn't, right, and they should be disciplined since the powell era began. we don't have people running around making speeches those are your risks, understand them going in and play ball. >> i mean, you had a forced recession, basically and you net with a gigantic bazooka. >> bigger than ever. >> several right. so let's do this let's take a quick break i mentioned steph has some interesting moves that we need to talk about. we'll do that after the break and we do have analyst calls of the day including this one it's a restaurant stock that surged over 70% in a year and it's the mystery chart and a reminder, you can always watch d listen to us live on the cnbc app we're back after this.

♪ ♪ i'm contessa brewer. here's your cnbc news this hour. people with dementia are twice as likely to get covid-19 and twice as likely to die after

getting it >> the town of palm beach, florida, is considering whether former president donald trump can continue living at his mar-a-lago club. council members will hear from the town's attorney on a 1993 agreement that some say bars him from living at the club. >> in myanmar's second big of the city, hundreds of protesters are taking to the streets despite the bans on gatherings police used water canons to disperse those demonstrators. >> nielsen says 92 million people watched the super bowl on tv that's the fewest in 15 years and cbs says it was the most livestreamed super bowl in history which brought total viewership above 96 million people and still a drop from last year and an enthusiasm lag there. >> it is always tough. >> contessa brewer. steph, you bought match group and sold costco. take me through that trade

>> yeah. i mean, costco is just profit taking at 35 times earnings. it's almost like why i sold nike because it was trading at 45 times earnings these are quality companies and compounders and nothing wrong with them, but i needed the money to buy match group because there is more upside to match group and i like the online dating business and the market is a $3 billion market and right now growing to about 4.5, 5 billion in the next ten years and penetration is going to the next 6%, 7% and these guys are the leader in the industry and i like spins a lot they tend to work very, very well, and so it's also a re-open play to the extent people want to go out and actually meet people. >> i agree i mean, i think that's valid, but why is the stock barely done anything in anticipating the re-open that you say this plays right into >> see that's where i think the opportunity is, right? it was down 7% on a solid

quarter. i just think it's misunderstood. i don't think people have paid much attention to it many people own the iac piece and now that it's spun out on them, i like this piece. i think it's a better-run company and i love this management team and it's very aggressive and this falls into, you know how we talk about marbell and this is not a cheap stock by any means and i'm looking at the total addressable market story and the penetration rates and i think they'll be able to gain market share as we re-open. so we'll have to wait and see, but i really like it a lot >> okay. josh >> i don't know that match group has done nothing. >> i'm not saying nothing -- >> they have a $13 million market cap. >> year to date it hasn't done all that much. obviously, it's had a nice little move. >> year to date, yeah. it was 7 billion in 2019 mark cap. it's 42. so it's gone up sixfold and part

of the reason this stock has been a slow to catch on is because it was majority owned by iac. they didn't complete that spin until last summer, i think, but this stock will work, stephanie for a reason you didn't mention which is the bumble ipo. bumble is going to be one of the hottest deals of the month goldman sachs is bringing that out any day now. it's got a founder, and she's 31 she will be the youngest female ceo ever to bring a company public and bumble is going to be hot. i think it will be priced at 35, probably open at 60, 70 based on what we've seen recently because match will get a lot of attention because match is bigger and has more customers and has more breadth of different services so i think steph's going to win here >> that stock's moving higher. >> fingers crossed >> i'm sorry i'm sorry? >> i said fingers crossed.

>> yeah. all right. let's go to rahel solomon. she has some calls of the day. hello, rahel. >> hi. yeah goldman sachs is adding constellation brands and it is in part to the modelo brand and corona hard seltzer shipments here and if you want a burrito to go with that corona, chipotle, the price target is $18 a share and analysts like the company's growth and you in store design which will improve margins and ford getting an upgrade with a $14 price target and this is with increased consumer spend this is a stock that's among the top gainers in the s&p up more than gm and it's been a good few months and it goes to outperform at raymond james and price target is at 120 a share and this is as it continues to benefit from virtual learning

even in a post-covid world and it certainly has a nice ring to it, post covid can't wait, rahel, thank you and rahel solomon with our calls of the day. you have some action in ford and you own calls and it was part of your unusual activity. yeah, just a week ago, scott, and pete, you have unusual activity, and pete always has unusual activity and nonetheless, ford doing a lot of things right and it was the move to the upside out of gm and just over a week or ten days ago they triggered that unusual activity, scott, and i like what rahel had to say about many of the stocks like canopy growth which is the driver, i think, the significant driver over there at constellation brand, scott, because just look at these cannabis stocks since the

election, 400%, 600% and those kinds of performances and that's what you've got out of the competitors with canopy growth and part of the constellation brands and i think that provides that real boom to the upside in that one >> steph, you're a prior owner of constellation will you own it again, the conviction buy list goes to 275 as rahel told us >> i like the idea i think that there are a lot of ways that they can win with modelo distribution and the capacity increases in their hard seltzer business, but here's the thing. it's 24 times earnings and they're trying to make a case that, growth is going to accelerate this year and you're going to 7.5% top line growth. for 24 times earnings, that's exactly why i'm underweight staples and that's one of the reasons i just mentioned and i sold costco and i only think there are a couple of special situations that i want to be in,

coke being my biggest position, actually. >> thank you for that. for more on the analyst calls go to cnbc pro. go to cbs.com/pro for that stay with us jon has unusual activity coming up, plus in celebration of black history month we are hundredorcnbc contributors with advice for the next generation. >> the next generation of leaders, business leaders, politicians, et cetera, are on the other side of the camera they're not sitting here they're not me and they're not my peers i want you all to adopt a mindset that you have limitless possibilities and while i understand you may not have all of the luxuries at your disposal, opportunity met with tireless effort will lead to results, and i look forward to watching the next generation imparting their owdgone.knlee m o could save you hundreds on car insurance and a whole lot more? hmm. so what are you waiting for? hip hop group tag team to help you plan dessert? ♪ french vanilla! rocky road! ♪

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of critical vaccinations for the world. emerson. consider it solved. of critical vaccinations for the world. (sam) gamers! verizon 5g ultra wideband is here, with ultra... low... lag! so start becoming the best gamers in the ga-- (avatars) oohh! (sam) 5g ultra wideband, now in parts of many cities. this is 5g built right. >> all right let's do unusual activity. dr. j., what have you got? >> we've got cliffs, scott cliffs did a secondary, and the stock was hit, pushed lower and this is one of those reopening and infrastructure plays and

hopefully, scott, crossing my finger, we get an infrastructure bill after this their 1.9 stimulus bill. they're buying the april 18 calls with the stock at about $16 scott. i bought the 16s, sold these higher strike calls. since it's april i'll probably be in it about two months. second one, riot blockchain. yes, i know. they do a lot of mining and they win a lot of those competitions and because of that and the big hoard they have of bitcoin, this one has been zooming right along with bitcoin this one is february 19th expiration calls and they're buying those calls with the stock at 33 not 91 and they were buying the 40s right noi and it's at 40 as we're talking about it >> when i saw it, scott it was

33.90. people are in here buy, and buying and buying these calls. i imagine pete and the team are looking at what have we rolled up to now if we've made such a big move in a short amount of time halftime is coming up next ask questions by video and e-mail us at halftime @cnbc.com.

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♪ ♪ >> all right let's answer some ofio y your c. i have two on verizon, and i'll give you the one from ryan anthony, who says, quote, hi, verizon company is the same price it was one year ago. josh is frozen -- i'll come back to josh. i'll get that. i promise. canopy growth, toronto, ride the stock or sell? >> ride it, scott. i mean, there's plenty you can do with hedging and so forth and you and i just spoke about constellation brands and their

very significant stake here. i like this one, i like tilray and alfria and canopy, and all of them continue to work that can't be overstated enough, scott, and that is a very significant move and wait until new york approves is, and these will go higher >> we don't have josh yet, guys? i'll come back to you. when we reach the one-year anniversary of the pandemic dip, do you think people will be selling stocks to enjoy profits from long-term gains so they may pay less capital gains tax >> so, clearly, there's been a lot of talk about taxes given where trading volumes have been in the past year, but i will say as it relates to the big question, there are a lot of big names that were bought in the early part of this pandemic that i think clients will hold as they move forward. >> okay. thank you. i think we have josh back now. josh, to you again, ryan anthony, one of two questions on

verizon today. says the stock price is the same it was a year ago. can you ask if it's still worth owning what do you think? >> i'm certainly not a seller. in fact, it's almost a 5% dividend yield and what i do with verizon is i own it in a tax-deferred account and i allow that dividend to reinvest and buy more stocks. so i think when you're talking aboututilities and large-scale telecom providers you always want to think of them in total return, so i think you're taking less risk than you are in most areas of the market. you're getting a higher than average yield buying relatively cheap stocks and i'll let this continue to compound it will have good years and bad years and i will keep talking about that distribution. >> stephanie, what's happening

with zoetis. >> animal health is the best in breed. number one in the space. great pipeline and great innovation this is a hold for me. i'm not adding is up here, but it's a long-term hold for me. >> oil prices are surging since the start of the year. the stocks the traders are watching and they'll tell us next got a question for the halftime investment committee? if you want to send us a video, we can play it on air. e-mail us, askhalftime@cnbc.com. good morning! the four way is a destination place. right here, between these walls, is a lot of history. i am black.

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♪ it is time foor the futures outlook, and crude oil hitting the highest level in more than a year, and $60 a barrel is within sight, and now bringing in bill baruch, and simon stutz, and what do you think, stutz, topping out or getting started >> well, i think that we will see with the oil, and the picture here of where the oil might be going to, and there has been a push into the hard assets now, and talking about the bill oil here, and canopy growth and short squeezes going on, and the interest rates are low, and the inflation is ticking up, and we saw the numbers that are starting to get hot, scott, and pushing up to 2 1/2 and 3% year over year here, an inflation is the key and we heard it from the caplan saying watch for the inflation blips here, and hard assets, oil could be one of the thins. oil has some of the things working against it, but it is

l looking like $60 is in the cards. >> bill? >> well, oil is in the trade, but last year, the capitulation has been defined by the volume. and we have been seeing a huge tailwind, and right now, though, we are at resistance at $60, and don't chase it, because big down trend that we are about to break out above, and, too, you can see this is a pullback as a buying opportunity, and the bac backwardation and riding what could be a breakout of the seven-year highs and maybe it is going to $100 in the next 17 to tons. >>hat would be a big impact. okay. we will do final trades after this break.

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and your books are set for the month! ...going up against this guy... and pitching your idea 100 times. no, no, no! no. i like it. -he likes it! ...and you definitely love that. intuit quickbooks helps small businesses be more successful with payments, payroll, banking and live bookkeeping. we are get to the final trades in a moment. i pulled up disney and the stock hit all-time highs earlier and set to report thursday, and you talked to your brother about the expectations especially high with the stock from 130 to north of 180, so what do you think >> yeah. and scott, just two weeks ago, it was 167 or 168. explodes to that new high like you say over 190, and we have been rolling up, rolling up the calls and pete talked the about

it yesterday for the 190 call, and they bought them all of the way to the 202 strike, scott, yesterday. so, i like it. two days hence, we will know if we are right or wrong of course because on thursday after the bell, they are going to report. i still like the upside, and i'm going to stick with it. >> a final trade for me, jon >> i do. international game tech, igt, and it is not just slot machines, but certainly a big reopening play, and it is also all about lottery, and every state needs more revenue, scott, and so these guys are going to be a big beneficiary of that, and i bought the calls in the show. >> okay. good stuff. josh brown >> thank you. >> shock. over the past five year, it is up 280%, and beating chipotle and dominos and most people are not aware of how big of a winner it is and a $5 billion market cap and young company and early story, and staying long. >> you keep adding to it, and you said that earlier, right

>> the meals more so than the stock, yes. >> i hear you. jason? >> d.r. horton mfor me, and they had a strong quarter with the pre-tax up, and stay long here. >> stephanie, i need a quick name. >> carrier global, by the dip. >> okay. good to see everybody. "the exchange" is now. >> thank you, scott. hello, everybody, i'm brian sullivan and we will call it the wall of winning. stocks, oil, commodities, cryptos, metals, and all rocking in the free world, and can this commodity boom continue to blast off or will it turn to be a big bust. and saving youth sports and maybe a coach's sanity we will speak to the sports great russell wilson about his