tv Fast Money CNBC February 25, 2021 5:00pm-6:00pm EST
growth areas you have amazon that's done nothing for seven months we'll see if those stocks get rediscovered at some point >> tesla up over the last 12 months tech, consumers discretionary, the worst performing sectors, health care, the best. we're out of time on "closing bell." "fast money" starts now. >> i'm melissa lee and this is "fast money. guy adami, tim see mohr, jeff mills. all three major averages finishing the day deep in the red. the nasdaq plunging more than three and a half percent for the biggest loss since objects every sector lower rate shock the yield on the treasury node hitting 1.55%, its highest level since last february. so in this new world of people
investing, does this people. >> you're assuming i can see that meme e-mail >> i sent it to you. >> i was going to say you sent it to me, so i'm familiar with the meme it's the tail wagging the dog or the tail being the kids call it. we're not talking about this in a vacuum we've been concerned about this for months those concerns have been misguided until the last couple of days and now it's coming to fruition that's where we got today. that's where the market's realizing, yields going higher is a tail wind until they're not. i think we've reached that till they're not. >> jeff mills, did you think one and a half was the line in the sapped for stocks?
we we started the year above 1% >> the ten-year average, i think 240 or so in the ten years priority covid, i thought it was a level below that we were living in this perfect world for a while where rates stayed low, vaccines were ramping up and everyone was feeling good about the reopening of the economy now the rates are starting to creep up all of a sudden there's a risk i think it's rates are playing catchup to what's been happening in the economy and in the stock market you've seen a waterfall where you had everything trailing. then you started to see smaller cap move and i think you're starting to see rates start to move i'm not surprised you're seeing this knee-jerk reaction in the short term
i don't know that this is what's going to torpedo the rally the yield is up year on year if you look at real yields, real yields are decidedly negative on a year over year basis a lot of investors will say it's the real yields driving into stock. pay close attention to that. >> it hasn't changed except for today really felt bad. in terms of feeling bad we saw sectors to the up side not participating in the rally i'm thinking of financials for one, tim they've been creeping higher along with the ten-year yield. it's been before, better, better, and then bam -- no more. >> we tweeted that out because it's shocking. we would be rallies like crazy on banks i think banks have underperformed, especially given all this reopening hysteria. the move today in bonds was not only the adult swim, but if you
look at the option in treasuries, and most people don't. but it was t catastrophic. if you look at what it did to the middle part of the curve in that part of the day and effectively where we closed, there are a lot of people say the ten-year kneeled today boisks attended the bear trap and basically -- sorry from 2/2020 from the proceeding two years and you've reversed rates. if the technicals look horrible if you're selling any bounces from here. as someone who said normalized skills, the price action today and maybe so everyone else that was concerned for the last two weeks was right. but i will say that the price action today was nasty very nasty and the fed's not helping anything by coming out there and saying no problem with
inflation. we're not worried at all this is all great news when we know the fed does not control the long end of the curve. you know, that's the stuff that today -- i think today was an extraordinary day in markets let's be clear and it didn't feel very good. >> you got to be wondering, if you're jerome powell, perhaps, you think why doesn't the market believe us when we say we've got your back. ryan kelly, what's going on here >> maybe it's the undershooting inflation that is making them go, hmm, maybe these guys don't know what they're talking about. bullard coming out today and saying i'm not afraid of inflation, when lumber is hitting all time highs, when you have supply chain issues, you have global stimulus not just going into the financial markets but actually going into people's pockets.
to me strikes massive hubris that you think you can control this when -- >> oh, but the fed has said inflation will be temporary, it will be uneven and this is exactly what we expected it. we'd rather it run hot than nothing at all so according to plan >> that tune will change as soon as the stock market is down 10%. no panic and yields will be up 2% and peg yields at 2%. i've been saying that a long time they're doing it again for investors at home we don't want to get into too wonky conversation in my view, the first part of the rate rise was because of the reopening and potentially today what we saw was the tipping point into investors worried about inflation. >> you guys are sounding pretty glum overall
guy, i see tesla 22% off highs, facebook off 15, amazon 13% from recent highs i think this is it it's my time to get in what do you tell them? >> they're probably going to end up being right i'm not suggesting apple is going to crater. what we're talking about is a situation where something is fundamentally changed. i tell them make sure they have their shopping list out. ail dult swim, i know you're familiar with the term scuba, correct? self-contained underwater breathing apparatus. >> i've heard of it. >> you wonder where he's going when will you jump off the boat to go diving and you get to a certain depth, 50 basis points in august, you have to come up at a reasonable pace, right. you have to sort of go up
slowly if you don't go up slowly, if you go up too quickly. if something spooks you like a mora eel or a tiger shark, you get something called the bends if you come up too quickly the market's come up too quickly and now the stock market is getting the bends. not having had them have you having read about them, it's not a pleasant thing to go through and that's what the market is dealing with right now >> are the bends a temporary condition? is it currently -- do you have long lasting injuries from it. tim, you know about this >> i'm probably the only one on the panel spending a night in a barometric chamber after a scuba accident guys pointing out that there may good h be some elements of the market right now that appear to be broken. so what i would say about the
move in yields is something that at some point think of also all of the pension and endowment and the funds are around the world that actually were buying en masse at the lows, and the bond market investors have been destroyed in 2021. and so there's a lot of damage there, but i think the next piece of this that we're going to start talking about, credit ryan talked about potentially where there was growth moves move on credit expectations at some point we've thrown so much money at the problem, but there was a credit condition that we were talking about very much so going into the year 2020 that essentially bbb credit profile. if you start to see greater credit contagion, that's something equities haven't
priced in. >> let's through in steve. steve, great to have you back on the show i feel like we've had this conversation many times over the past couple of months, probably starting in mid january. we flagged the rising interest rates and the trajectory at which they rose and we get told it's not a problem jay powell, this was all in the plan and it's going to take a lot for the fed to move. have things changed at all in your view at this point? >> not from the fed standpoint they're doubling down on it. i'll explain what the feds think but i don't want them to throw things at me to be clear about this if there's going to be two rounds of inflationary impulse the first round is going to be a falling out of base effects, in other words, we had lower inflation before that's going to fall out of the 12-month comparison. that's going to be the first round. the second round is through the
reopening. you'll have people coming back you have this massive dislocation in the economy, melissa. for example, people are the manufacturing sector is sort of getting up and running again global trade has been upset. you can't get all the goods you need people are going to come out of their shells, out of their homes, starting to buy and you'll see prices rise the way almost everybody i know see that is a temporary phenomenon, not an inflationary process that will take years the difference is this you talked about this issue of the fed having your back we're in a new world when the fed is looking for inflation above 2% as one bond trader told me, it's like saying they don't have your back anymore. they're willing to let that real yield you get erode in return for getting the job market back,
down 10 million jobs as we are right now. >> hey, steve, it's b.k. i don't think you think like the fed. we've talked to the fed and i know you're much smarter than them what about the stock market? because what we've seen over the last couple of years is when the market does dip 10 or 15 years, the stock market, all of a sudden the tune changes. i know they won't publicly come out and say we want to work with the stock market what about when it comes to policy decisions these days? >> i think that's a piece of it. i think you're right about that. i think that's a smart observation. the fed's going to watch it. if there's a big selloff either in bonlds or stocks, it's going to prompt the fed to take some action to have more orderly distribution, but this idea, i don't know, i picked it up years ago, this idea when it comes to
stocks of strong hands you have a different environment where certainly for some group of folks, you know, one and a half percent is an attractive yield. i look at the idea that if yields go to 2%, the real yield is still zero. you're telling me the stock market with the kind of boom that we're expected to have can't prosper and do well with a 2% yield on a 10-year? if that's true i'm not sure you have a competent view on earnings in corporate america. >> jeff, you're -- go ahead, b.k. >> to the contrary i think at 2%, particularly if the fed pegs it there, the stock market will boom i just think it's this intermediary period. >> yeah. agreed >> jeff, you're vigorously nodding your head to steve's comment. >> yeah, i was it's what i was talking about a the beginning to have show, real
yields people just have in general. when you're talking about inflation rising along with yield and you have a significantly negative yield, people are going to be continuing to push the stock market, especially if earnings continue to recover and the economy wants to reopen. i want to go back to something that tim said relative to credit i looked at an interesting analysis this week just to put some numbers to this since 2008 we've had ten sustained periods of rising interest rates only in two of those periods have we seen the s&p 500 compressed the period was rising credit spreads. as long as interest rates are rising and we see credit well behaved, that may not matter >> does it matter what the context is for those periods of time, jeff >> no, the periods of time actually varied quite a bit. there were sthoom lasted multiple quarterbacks. some lasted only a couple of months, but regardless, if it
was -- if they were compressing credit are spreads, kind of regardless of where the pe was you could argue that it's elevated right now so there's not a lot of room to expand but maybe you maintain the current level as investors continue to search for this return you see a recovery in earnings regardless, we're going to be lock fi look back through history, it's the more defensive areas of the market maybe you throw in technology now. dividend stocks fundamentally stable businesses, low beta. they generally face head winds as interest rates are rising, so i'd rather be in the more cyclical areas of the market >> steve, i know you wanted to inoculate yourself by saying this is what the fed thinks. i don't want you to go out on a limb in terms of predicting or anything like that what's your sense of the situation in the context of coming out of the pandemic
>> let me nod to what tim said. >> ok. >> i can have this theoretical academic whatever you want to call it view towards where yields are i think the words tim might have used, it's ugly today and it's ugly how quickly it's risen, and the auction was ugly that's significant i can argue that 150, 200 basis points is not a problem but getting there the way we got there is not pretty. i think it's going to be very difficult for the fed to ex fr extricate itself from where it is now the fed is attempting to do something novel. give me a second and i'll explain it they're divorcing their easing policy and the criteria around ending and reducing that from the interest rate policy that was the problem bernanke
had in 2013. you're ending kiwi that means you're going to raise rates. they're trying to create a two-step market. i don't know if that's successful it's a pretty clever idea. we'll see if the market and guys on your panel ghlom on to it. >> yeah. i think that there's a little bit to be seen in terms of the credibility issue there, steve thank you for joining us always great to see you. >> thank you. >> i like how steve used the word "clever." clever has many definitionings what do you think? >> you know i admire steve he's brilliant you know i'm not a fan of the
federal reserve. i think they're misguided and they're trying to serve the master in the form of the stock market, and they can't win playing that game. i think that's what they're playing. they shouldn't know where the s&p is within 500 handles. that's just my view. i think you bring up a good point. if they can take their foot off the accelerator while the economy is booming and nobody catches that, that's best case scenario i don't think that's going to happen great song by aerosmith, i think the can train is about to get off the tracks a bit we'll see who putsds it back on the rails. >> the question now is where are they headed from here. let's go to chris varrone. >> i think what tim talks and steve and b.k. is true with bond yields bonds move slowly and then they move suddenly. today was a sudden move in bond
needles yields i want to show you a couple of charts it's a game. called then and now. look at what the market and what the macro indicators looked pre covid. today it's 3800. brent oil was 6 6. today it's 68. copper was 280 today it's 430 financials were 30 bucks now they're 33 even german 10-years are higher than pre covid ten-year yields were 30 basis points below where they were at the end of 2019. we think they're getting to where they belong. 190, 2%, i don't think it's out of the question. the second chart, what really gets us there. we've been cueing off this ratio between copper and gold.
industrial metals versus precious metals. this sets up rates from ere. i realize it's aggressive. you can pause in the short term. i'd look to good support in the 130, 135 range i think you're on your way ultimately to 2% what stands out to me, this third chart we brought along, these are the 62 wall street economists who predict where bond yield should be at the end of 2021. why is there no one -- or two people above 2%? the street has to move the forecast to the right side of the table here there's only six above 157 the street is not prepared for what this means yet. i think the forecast table reflects that. how do we play that? as all this is going on, there's a couple of groups and stocks breaking out we know how good the brokers have been. this is goldman sachs over the
last 15 or 16 years. the stock's been dead money since 2005, 2006 it's overbought. it can come in in the short term, be a buyer of weakness this is a major, major change here i think an improvement in the life insurance stocks. a stock that has essentially been dead money for the better part of the last 15 oar 16 years, this one has started to wake up as bopped yields have gone higher. i think ultimately if we're talking about 175, two with two and a half, it's going to be on the right side of the trade. these stocks have been dormant for 10, 15, 20 years they're waking one and i think we ought to listen >> you made a great call you said rising rates and a sharply high rate would be the surprise of the year and maybe it's upon us already
it's striking to me that it's not the banks more exposed or levered to the rising rates. what do you see in the cards for them >> a couple of days ago we ran 25 stocks that have the highest correlation to ten-year bond yield over the last 20 years those 25 names, all of them financials you cross a wide variety of groups life insurance, it's banks, it's br brokers. look at the long term chart, the 10, 15, 20-year charts on the key groups these are massive breakouts. are they overbought sneer the whole market is overbought buy weakness they're saying these things are the leaders in months and quarters to come >> great to see you. >> thank you >> guy was mentioning a shopping list should banks, tim, be on people's shopping lists? >> yeah, they have
and we talked about how today wasn't the day to get response some of the chaos is part of it in the volatility. i think net interest margins are a big part of what people are buying or selling on either side of that, so therefore, it's getting better for banks and there's no question. certain parts of the curve today actually flattened if you look overall at where we are in terms of the slope of the yield curve, it's very bank friendly i get back to the fact that banks are in a position to have more freedom or less regulatoriy targets on their back in terms of capital and some of the limitations that were there, byebacks, dividends and i think ultimately you have a case where banks didn't come into this run. on a relative basis, very, very cheap, not only to the s&p, which banks can be with this part of the cycle. the good news is that this is good news. this is about a reopening trade.
this is about an economy that's accelerating and all the fears expressed today to me are buried in the fact that the fed has overstated the party every time since they started flooding the market with liquidity. why won't they do it again look what happened in 2018 they're clearly talking the other direction. i know they're fearful of that >> coming up, after hours earnings action for you. we'll bring the numbers and the trades first, game on the gamestop trading frenzy playing out in a big way again today. we'll explain when "fast money" we'll explain when "fast money" returns. but i've seen centuries of rises and falls. i had a love affair with tulips once.
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retail or institutional traders are buying calls from market makers, the market makers need to hedge to do that, they buy some measure of the stock the tricky bit about this, though, is that if everybody is buying options and the market makers are only short those options, as the stock prices rise, they need to buy more and more stock to maintain their heads. because movements in the stock price rises. if you look at the open interest in names like gamestop, you see there's 15,000, 20,000, in some cases more than 30,000 contracts. 30,000 contracts is the equivalent of three million shares as the stocks start mieg greating they need to start selling stock to maintain their hedges this exacerbates the volatility. i think part of it is retail buying and selling of the stock.
part of it is buying and selling of the options, market makers to hedge those beds also i believe that market makers are net short these options, so as the stock moves they are essentially throwing gas on the fire. >> that makes a lot of sense the short interest has gamestop down considerably since it was 140% of the shares now about 30%, which i believe is lowest in the stock since 2013 it doesn't appear to be a short squeeze at this time guy, your thoughts on this >> if this was just short stock, gamestop would have never, in my opinion, gotten to 500, or wherever it got to this is much more than that. i've said at least a dozen times, these guys and gals understand volatility and negative gamma better than the people who should understand it
intuitivity. oh, and by the way, on a benign day for the market, if you think about it, the dow's down marginally, a half nasdaq down a little bit more, we're within earshot of the all-time highs it went from 30 to 21 today. that should not happen on a day like today, in my opinion. there's hidden risk in the market that only mike co is pointing out that's the real kwa nary canary in the coal mine there's this misguided belief that the federal reserve has our back. >> dare i ask, ryan i'll give this to you. >> all right >> that week that gamestop went nuts and went to 483 a share, we saw the nasdaq decline for the week it was down 3%, so even less than what we're seeing so far this week, but could
there be a connection? >> well, i mean, yes, there has been a connection. they called it derisking, derenching, evening out your book, but schaar to what mike was talking about, if you're a long hedge fund and you're long tech stocks and say you're short gamestop or something like that. they're not as short as they used to be you have to cut your shorts to balance your books yeah, i think it's a bit of a connection it's probably looser than it was a few weeks ago. but it's probably still there a bit. >> for more options action, tomorrow laicing all sales force, virgin gact on the move we'll bring you the trades when we'll bring you the trades when "fast money" returns
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welcome back to "fast money. we've got a double earnings alert for you. shares of sales force and virgin galactic on the move we start with josh with sales force's quarter josh >> check out the stock in the after hours. it was downing about 15% off its most recent high heading into the print it was up about a hundred percent. q1 forecast above expectations that 2022 forecast was low
consensus on the bottom. he thought it was a solid print. he says crm gosh conservatively. possibly due to the heightened expectations is his reason crm is more strategic, more relevant than ever, he said. the acquisition of slack makes sense. the combination of products is going to make since and he'll move slack into more of his applications good division tonight. back to you. >> josh, thank you josh lipton. clearly software one of those faces, high value valuation. you see those stocks get hit really hard. we saw the software down >> yeah. i do agree that this was a solid
quarter for salesforce i think there's going to continue to be a lot of focus n the slack acquisition. they paid close to $28 billion for it i think there are always questions about acquisitions of that size. facebook and instagram come to mind as an example in slack, there was this interconnectivity company dool i think that's very powerful talking about something that disrupt e-mail, to something that's going to positively impact the company over time and there aren't many sass stocks think about shopify, pay dcom, g down the line. i think for a sass company, you find some decent value in salesforce a month ago it bounced off at 213. the 200-day average is right at 222 now.
i would pay attention to that level. >> yeah. tim? >> the service and marketing cloud business is extraordinary. the slack acquisition, maybe they overpaid. absolutely the right one again, a platform where there's network effects for all of this. one of the things that's more a technical component of only the stock. i'm not sure that's been priced into margins there's a little bit of pressure to kind of work that through but agree that this has clearly been the sas leader why would they continue to take leadership and they don't >> let's round things off with virgin dplaktic. shares are down in after hours frank has details. >> you said it all shares of virgin galactic not taking off it was in line with estimates.
this is a prerevenue the top tier is pipeline future astronauts who have paid up to $250 to take a flight scheduled for 2021 that was capped at 1,000 by the company. those are people that paid $1,000 and a dozen for future flierkts that is only at 1,000, same as previous sir richard branson will take the company's third flight that has not been announced yet. but we know when the second flight is scheduled for, may of this year. that second flight will have a revenue generating move from that's and the italian air force. also announcing a number of executive additions, including a new cfo, director of aerospace shares of virgin galactic loses big. you have to look at this year so
far. the space company up big up more than 51% back to you. >> frank, thank you. brian kelly i go to you. this stock may fall hard with rising rates >> yeah. it's going to be extremely volatile this reminds me very much of tesla in the early days when a lot of people couldn't envision a day when cars on the road, the majority would be electric probably shouldn't have gone public, anyway, but it did here we are and you have an opportunity because you have shorter term investors that are looking into the next year and saying, ooh, it doesn't look that great but if you think that space travel is going to be a part of the world, commercial space travel is going to be a part of our world in five years, i think you buy this dip and you buy it with both hands. >> is that going to be your world in five years? >> you know, i -- no
>> i know. >> you know the answers to these questions. >> i do. >> there is an age, i looked it up it'sinsulting to astronauts, the same way if i said i'm getting on a plane next week makes me a future pilot. the same way as getting on one of these virgin galactic guys and gals, future astronauts. number one number two, this stock is now attempting re-entry. where does re-entry take place probably around $36 or so. bring your barf bags it's probably going to be a bit of a ride. >> visual for you. coming up, we'll tell you what gave twitter its wings today when "fast money" returns.
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have -- when you're playing this one at home, when a company announces an investor day, there's usually some good news, or they tend to sprinkle that good news into the analyst day and deliver something, and that's what happened here. doubling revenue from 3.7 billion to 7.5 billion by 2023, that's extraordinary i think the jury is still out but the focus on revenue is everything the street wanted to hear yes, monthly 20% on average for the next four years, also very, very important in how you get to part of that this is a company that's not been able to do that i love twitter and i do think it's a great call but i think the stock's had a massive run over the last 45 days and you should be careful. >> the question is do you love twitter here guy. >> dan nathan did a power pitch.
we've all spoken highly of twitter. it coincides with several interesting events over the last couple of months traded almost three and a half times normal volume today. it's going to continue to be a great story. i think given these levels, taking somebody off the table on twitter, which we've been bullish on, is probably the right thing to do given the amount of backdrops and the amount of volume traded. >> all right coming up, crypto platform coin base planning to go public brian kelly is going to explore what this mean and we're honoring brandon copeland with his advice for the next veneration. >> my advice for the generation of black americans is to not wait for this information but proactive in seeking it out.
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welcome back coinbase exchange announcing its revenue has more than doubled in the past year bringing in more than $1.1 billion in 2020. they have surged to record highs. what do you make of this valu valuation. >> it's implying when it starts trading it would be a hundred billion valuation, which is fairly eye popping, frankly, because that means it would remain a bigger one than others. so if that holds, it's interesting. the second part of that which i think is interesting, if you look at some of the exchange
coins, like a binance or something like that, you can have a real world finance valuation start to creep into the crypto world >> here's the question, though b.k. dollar for dollar, bitcoin or coinbase >> oh, bitcoin, without a doubt. >> jeff mills, you -- >> here's the reason. >> uh-huh. go ahead >> equities are limited on their valuations currencies are not. >> jeff, would you agree >> yeah, i agree i think if you want exposure to the space, you want to go into bitcoin itself when i think about what the value of a coin should be, you look at the demand side, saw some interesting stats from arc invest trying to game out what that might look like if you have 1% of corporate sheets allocated to bitcoin. if you have 1% of institutional voters, the price doubles. if they allocate two and a half
percent of their poehls, the price goes to 200,000. it's important those aren't large percentages in terms of allocations but they are big price moves. >> coming up, how you should position yourself for torrmoow's trading day. the setup when "fast money" the setup when "fast money" returns. actually it's for both new and existing customers. i feel silly. but i do want the fastest 5g network. the fastest 5g network. are we actually doing this again? it's not complicated. only at&t gives everyone the same great deal. like the samsung galaxy s21 5g for free when you trade in. we see increased efficiency
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welcome back to "fast money. stocks selling off today with the major indices in the red a lot of pressure on the broader market we want to know from our traders what are you watching tomorrow anything on your shopping list guy, why don't you kick it off >> the three things i watch other than the obvious russell which was down 3.7% today, underperformed, obviously. banks, do they get a bounceback, and obviously, the vics. they've come back down to 21 those are the three things on my radar screen >> yeah. tim. >> well, you have to be looking at the bond market so pick your part of the curve. it'sdistorted. we got a little wonky when negative gamma comes up, but
look at cvs on companies that are considered to at least have some credit concerns look at high yield you haven't seen a major breakdown there. those have been the science. in the meantime, markets very close to all-time highs. we were arguably overbought and the bond market oversold at this point. whether these are rallies to sell or not, let's let the bond market -- it always leads the way. >> back to the meme that we sauf you at the top of the show, so we've gone full circle jeff mills, a how about you? what's on your radar >> i know this is cliche, but i think the thing for most investors to do is nothing get pin nation readings, see what that looks like and continue to look at key relationship, discretionary versus staples va robe mentioned gold versus comer. i'm going to be watching banks
>> yeah. b.k., how about you? >> yeah. for me, there's got to be really two things i don't -- i think we're in for a period of indigestion here you want to listen to what the fed speakers say they haven't given us any help so it's probably going to take a little lower stock market. convexity hedging, when you hear those terms, that's generally when the rate selloff is over. that's the last kind of step of it we saw a little bit of it today. we saw a little bit of it today. remember convexity trading and so do retailers. which is why they're going hybrid, with ibm. a hybrid cloud approach with watson ai helps manage supply chains while predicting demands with ease. from retail to healthcare, businesses are going with a smarter hybrid cloud, using the tools, platform and expertise of ibm.
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guy adami has been talking about cme. i think you buy that tomorrow. >> guy >> i got a text last night from two viewers. they wanted to wish their mom a happy birthday on behalf of william and kate, happy bihdrtay oracle up today. back >> hope you're enjoying your annual chocolate, karen. thanks for watching "fast. "mad money's" up next. my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, cri'm cramer welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you some money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate, teach, and put days like this in context because i know you care and are concerned. call me at 1-800-cnbc or tweet