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tv   Squawk Box  CNBC  March 5, 2021 6:00am-9:00am EST

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and "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ how's it going to be when you don't know me ♪ ♪ how's it going to be when i'm not there ♪ ♪ how's it going to be ♪ >> good morning, everybody, welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin, and we do this every day, but this day we really need to get right to the markets you probably heard this yesterday, but rising bond yields pushing stocks lower yesterday after fed chair jay powell expressed a little worry about inpoliceflation, and provo indication of policy changes ahead. >> businesses and people would need to believe that larger increases in prices would be repeated year after year, and we think it's unlikely that the low inflation would suddenly change. the effects like the ones i described would be one time effects.
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>> in other words, prices in the next couple of months will look high, but only when compared with last year as the pandemic was taking hold and inflation pressures fell through the floor. remember, oil prices went negative last year, so they're saying, there is a little bit of catch up to be had here. the ten-year yield jumped on powell's comments, and you can see right now it's at 1.475% that's about ten basis points above where we were at this point yesterday. all of that put pressure on stocks because as bonds look more attractive, stocks look less attractive. the dow ending the day at 346 points after falling 700 points earlier in the session right now, the dow is down three days in a row on pace for the second down week in a row. the nasdaq is also coming off the third straight losing session. the nasdaq and the nasdaq 100 are off 10% from the recent 52-week highs that they hit in the middle of february into the correction territory for the
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first time since last year tesla is down 11% this week alone. down 5% yesterday. zoom is down 10% netflix down 6%, and amazon down 4 1/2% for the week, with apple down by 2% if you check out the futures right now, no real relief in sight. not additional massive pressure but you're not seeing a bounce back after all of these declines dow futures indicated down by 38 the s&p futures down by five, the nasdaq off by about 40, and guys, i think mike santoli put it right, the market is going to have to throw a much bigger temper tantrum if they want the fed to act here. >> to act doing what jay powell got done yesterday, and the market was going down. he's like, what, what, and then i read it, and i'm like what. >> what did i do >> he said, okay, bonds have moved over 1 1/2, and these crack addict, we have seen this before he didn't say i'm going to take
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steps to lower it back down below 1 1/2% and these traders, they have been throwing tantrums all through this easing cycle. >> 300 is not bad, but poor jay, he's like what, what, and he's reading it over again. >> if you look at the declines for the nasdaq this week, that's the bigger story, people rotating out of these trades that did well during the pandemic and are looking for the industrials, the manufacturers, that's the real trade here, getting out of all of those stocks. >> like we said yesterday, the front running move higher in rates, and i don't think it had anything dat-- powell didn't, i felt bad for him everything seemed so measured that he said yesterday, and most of it really, i thought was really really dovish, we're never going to pay attention we're not going to worry about inflation, that's not going to cause us to move to remove the
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punch bowl it doesn't take much, like we have said, these traders, all they want, sometimes you wonder if they care about economic activity, as long as the fed keeps -- >> that's the craziest thing to me, the market fighting against this idea that things are looking better, people are going to get back out there. we're coming through the pandemic, the shots are getting into people's arms that's the crazy thing. >> andrew, did you really tweet this i don't follow you, but did you really -- i want to see. there's a check mark there did you tweet that picture out >> oh, i think we're going to talk about this a little bit later. >> i know we are but. >> i said, no, andrew would never do that. i would never -- oh, there he is see, i would never -- you say we're going back to this type of life in my entire life, that's never been part of my life. >> becky is talking about a post pandemic world this is an advertisement, by the
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way, that landed in my inbox for suit supply, i own some suit supply ties that i bought over the years. >> that guy is not wearing any suit >> a pair of sneakers. >> we're going to talk about that later. >> that gentleman is wearing a suit as it happens, we just can't see it very well apparently that's what a post pandemic world looks like. that's not what my world looked like before the pandemic we can talk about it later. >> if you put a german shepherd on the left, my life liooks lik that it's weird that i'd let a german shepherd do that, but not a person, because we know what dogs do a lot of times anyway, i said anyway, i'm going to start saying anyhow, will that work, do you think? what aboutny anywho? >> did somebody tweet you about
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saying anyhow. i can't say anywho, because that sounds like dr. seuss. anyhow, senate democrats took a first step toward passing president biden's $1.9 trillion relief package, voting to start debate, republicans have signalled they're going to use delay tactics to drag out the vote, although democrats could pass the bill on their own with v vice president harris breaking a tie. the house would have to approve the altered bill, cnbc has been digging deeper into the relief package. maybe it's going to get read outloud. ylan mui joins us with the details of the hidden tax on executive pay. what page is that on out of the 600? >> i'm going to tell you because you might have missed it during the ten hours and 43 minutes it took the senate clerk to actually finish reading this bill the bill was 628 pages long, and tucked in there, on page 531, is
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a measure aimed at curtailing executive compensation now officially, it's called expansion of limitation on excessive employee remuneration. it prevents publicly traded companies from deducting compensation from highest paid employees if they make over a million dollars. this rule already applies to the top five executives at a company. the covid relief bill would expand that to the top ten this is a small change but projected to raise $8 billion within just a few years. so you pmight be asking, what does this have to do with the pandemic, the answer is not much it does have a lot to do with pension relief democrats have dedicated tens of billions of dollars for shoring up pension funds, the revenue for taxing executive compensation helps to offset the cost more importantly, guys, senate demo democrats had to raise more revenue or cut spending to stay within their $1.9 trillion budget for the bill. this is a case where every
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billion counts, back to you. >> does it really, though, it adds up sooner or later. really, if you want to get my attention, it's got to start with the t and it does. so we're looking at it now billions, i'm so done, that's so last year, ylan, the b word, billions it's amazing it is. >> the b matters because a house version of the bill was over budget by a few billion dollars. the numbers anywhere between 50 to 70, 30, there's different ways of calculating it, so they had to bring something down, and so all of these little changes, they add up to make sure that the covid relief package is in compliance with the reconciliation rules they're using to pass this without republican support so you got to play with the numbers in order to get the bill passed. >> i can't believe we're -- that a couple of billion can make a
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difference at this point i got you right here, becky, i see everything you're doing over there, and andrew. it's fun, and it's called a spy cam. >> that's all right. i'm spying on you too. ylan, quick question with that they think it's going to raise $8 billion because they assume that companies are not going to cut the pay of any of their executives that they will keep them all at a million dollars or more and pay the taxes on that as well? >> yes, i guess that's part of the calculation here is that how much would the ceo pay or top executive's pay change, whatever that figure is, they'll be able to tax companies on more of that amount you know, what are the dynamics of the executive pay that's something we'll have to find out i think the important thing to note is it doesn't take effect until 2027, so that gives you some sense of how likely they think this is going to happen. it will likely become part of the bill, likely get passed into law. this is why lobbyists have a
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job. they can keep trying to delay the provision in order to protect the salaries of those top ten employees. >> that sounds like cheating, though, that sounds like, okay, we're going to change the rules, wink wink, but you guys have the next six years to change it back >> the reason is because what is important here is how much this bill costs over a ten-year period, so if you raise -- one way to make the money work is raise revenue back toward the end of the ten years, the end of the decade, just to make the math work out with the perhaps understanding or assumption that maybe this may never come to pass this is something that is unfortunately very common in washington when you think about the last major bill that was passed in reconciliation, the tax bill, this is the whole reason the individual tax cuts expire, and the hope amongst republicans was they would eventually get extended permanently, but they had to end them at an arbitrary date, 2025, just to make the
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numbers work this is one of the downsides of using this complicated process to pass a major bill. >> politics are so stupid. >> all right, ylan thank you. becky, you could have thanked her, but anytime there's anything in the teleprompter for me that puts me on the screen, i'm going to use it. you know what i mean i'm not going to waste it, so i came back just to say -- i came back just to say thanks. >> i think we're pretty good about sharing screen time, honestly you hear these horror stories about people who count lines and words, that doesn't happen here because we have too much air time anyway. >> there are times, where if they did take a shot of me when you guys are doing something, sometimes i'm like this. >> i know. i have the spy cam, i see you. lucky you're not dozing off. >> that happens too. you'll see >> okay. anyway, when we come back, rate shock, we're going talk about
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the fed chair powell's fuel of economic recovery, what's happening here, and get predictions for today's jobs report that's coming up next. right now, as we head to a break, check out the price of crude oil, trading at its highest level, all the way back to $60 a barrel which seems crazy. the big drop we saw there and that doesn't take into account when we briefly went negative. check out the big energy stocks, they're all up as well marathon oil is the biggest gainer, occidental up by almost 3%, and exxon mobil, 1.9%, the are among the biggest premarket gainers in the s&p 500 stick around, "squawk box" will be right back. ♪
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welcome back, everybody. bond yields rose yesterday after fed chair jay powell did little to ease investors fears. that makes today's jobs report a potential market mover you're looking at the ten-year yield at 1.45% joining us is michelle girard, also matt hornbach, global head of macro strategy at morgan stanley. michelle, why don't we start with what jay powell had to say
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yesterday, probably not all that surprising but when you think about it, and you watch what happened with the yield and the ten-year, did that make sense to you? >> you know, becky, that we've seen over the last couple of weeks, and so what they were hoping to hear was that he was, you know, taking notice of the rise and he did say that, but there was no concern about the rise to the level that there's any indication the fed might be thinking about taking actions to sort of stop the, you know, ten-year yield from rising, and he would consider that the fed was considering doing more in terms of purchases to buy more of the longer term debt. there was disappointment that, while the fed chair acknowledged they're watching, nothing at this point had gotten them concerned enough that they were kind of rethinking whether or not they needed it take action >> it's kind of a stupid temper
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tantrum isn't it, we hope things are going to get better. we think we're going to get back to a more normal economy, we think things open up and we're starting to win on the covid front, isn't that great news, and by the way, shouldn't rates be higher? >> you know, and here's the other thing. what's pushing yields higher is not really higher inflation expectations because actually inflation expectations is not what has been driving this move up it is just as you said, becky, a growing expectation that the economic outlook here is improving, and that's something that the feds should welcome and not be pushing back against. >> so matt, let's talk about it from the equity side of things obviously if bonds look more attractive, stocks may look a little less attractive, relatively speaking. do you think that this is a serious pull back that we're going to be starting to see, the beginning of something, or do you think this is just a traditional move as you start thinking about a reopening
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economy, versus one where we have been in lock down >> thanks for having me on, becky, i do think that higher real yields in particular are something that the equity market does need to pay attention to, and as michelle said, this most recent move higher in bond yields that be more led by real interest rates moving higher than break even inflation rates moving higher. at the same time, the bond yields have been moving higher for the past six months, and of course most of that larger move has occurred with break even inflation rates moving up, so that's one of the reasons why the equity market was able to take it so well, right, since august when bond yields actually bottomed i think that if we continue to see higher real yields, in the absence of the type of data the fed would like to see, particularly on the labor market, yeah, the equity market may have a tough time moving higher from here
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>> one thing we have seen is a much bigger pull back, matt, on the tech stocks, the nasdaq has been done significantly more every day versus the s&p, but especially versus the dow, you see more strength in the industrial names, the manufacturing names, and a pull back from the tech high flyers that have just done so well over the last year. again, you think this is the beginning of something or do you think that this is kind of reshuffling that makes sense and then we kind of move on back to a less significant swing >> yeah, i think the latter is more our view, becky is that we're still in a secular bull market for the equity market here, the cycle began pretty clearly back in march of 2020. we think it's got further to run, big picture but yeah, more recently, the middle of reshuffling is in order, given the positioning that showed up in the equity market, and look, at the end of the day, you know, the pricing of the bond market's important
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here right now, the bond market has the fed hiking rates three times by the end of 2023, and in fact, one of the first of those sites is expected to come at some point in latter 2022 unless we get the data to support that type of bond market pricing, yeah, things are going to struggle near term, but the median term, everything will be fine, we think. >> michelle, what do you anticipate that we're going to hear today when we get that jobs report at 8:30 eastern time? the adp report was weaker than had been expected a couple of days ago. >> we also had a weak forecast we're looking for a decline in payrolls unfortunately it's weather related. unfortunately meaning that i think there's going to potentially be some noise in these numbers because we did have a number of snowstorms that hit various parts of the country right during that survey week, and so it could be that we get a
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number that's weaker than what the underlying trend is, although, lets face it, the last three months, the trend in payroll growth has been softer, as the economy was forced into, you know, renewed lock downs around the turn of the year, so we've seen a bit of a loss of momentum i think people are willing to look by that, because we are now getting hopeful about vaccine distribution and the pickup as we move into the summer. i do think we're still at a point where these data may not be telling us what we really need to know about, you know, the prospects for the economy to kind of improve. it's a little bit backward looking and again, this month in particular, may be, you know, a function of the weak numbers, could be a function of some weather distortions. >> all right, so we'll see what we get at 8:30 michelle and matt, i want to thank you both for your time >> thanks. andrew. >> okay. when we come back, companies out with new forecasts on how robust, could be the comments
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from retailer gap and imax, next, and how companies are playing to customers with pandemic fatigue with ads like, well, this, we'll talk about post-pandemic advertising, maybe even pre-post-pandemic advertising, when we come back
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♪ i compare you to a kiss from the rose on the grave ♪ ♪ the more i get of you strange how it feels ♪ right now it's time for the executive edge and we have three stories that are focused on what a return to normal looks like. we're going to start with retailer gap, fourth quarter sales fell short of estimates but the company swung to a profit as it sold more merchandise at full price and closed under performing stores it's the forecast that's getting all the attention this morning gap is predicting a rebound for
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the kinds of apparel that customers abandoned during the pandemic, as people begin to go out more and dress to impress. the company is predicting growth in 2021 in the mid to high teens percentage compared to the prior year good luck with that. >> wow, it just occurred to me, so we start going out again, you'll have to change the clothes you're wearing at home >> like underwear? >> occasion. but just the overall outfit. i seriously look pretty similar, like every single day. >> i have like the seven outfits i'm wearing and washing every week i know i have the same seven outfits, throw it back in the wash. >> when someone licks me on the face, i just need to wipe it off. i mean, why is that -- that's not -- >> that is not attractive or sexy. >> do your segment first, joe.
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you're out of water. >> shares are volatile in extended trading, they jumped after the company posted revenue, exceeded expectations, a loss of $0.07 a share. new releases in china and japan fueled box office performance at near prepandemic levels. ceo rich predicted a strong and sustainable recovery for the film industry based on the promising numbers from asia, probably a lot of people pent up i don't know how long that, you know, you get that big bounce when it finally opens, everyone wants to go back to an imax, i don't know how long it lasts but it's a real thing there's built up readiness to go, i think. your story, your tweet your thing, apparently but anyway, go ahead. >> it became my thing by accident of sorts. we're going take a closer look at how companies are rolling out ad campaigns for a post vaccine
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world like this one, and here's what happened, i got an e-mail yesterday from suit supply that makes suits and ties that i own. and got this e-mail under the heading the new normal is coming there's some other images that are even racier than that. i sent it out, guys, it now has about 3 1/2 million impressions on twitter, and then about a dozen news stories were writte about this ad in all sorts of publications with all sorts of headlines, including the summer -- there's some really crazy headlines, brands are getting ready for a horny vaccinated summer, that's one headline >> okay. >> there's others, i mean, all these advertising executives are talking about what's about to happen it's turned into a meme. there's a great one with sigourney weaver in aliens.
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>> her face from that is how i feel about it. >> there's a whole great sequence of lots of images that people have created memes around this now, but i don't know i think, you know, there's clothing companies that are talking about putting people and images together. there's dating web site companies that are planning on doing some pretty racy things, it sounds like the question i have is actually how they did the ad campaign, like when were those photos taken, and the models, were they all cool with this. >> they probably got tested. there were movies that were being made during the pandemic. >> you saw tom cruise's guidelines for making a movie. >> yes by the way, i was on his side when he got fired up about that. >> but there's drool there there's drool involved >> she missed. where is that supposed to be going. she looks like she just missed i don't know why you would want
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to -- >> that was the direction of the photographer okay turn your head, more towards the center, look towards me. >> why is there a baby bust right now. why is no one having babies. >> oh, because it takes ten months. >> we're all together. we're all home >> it takes ten months to catch up. >> you know why, because the kids are there too. >> no, netflix, and streaming stuff. >> there's netflix and chill you would think you're all locked up together, you figure, you know. >> you're right. >> one thing leads to another. next thing you know. >> everybody's home. >> yeah, everybody's home. that's the problem coming up, pollster frank luntz is out with data on the public perception of cap capitalism he joins us with the results
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next as we head to break, here's a look at the s&p 500's winners and losers i made a business out of my passion. i mean, who doesn't love obsessing over network security? all our techs are pros. they know exactly which parking lots have the strongest signal. i just don't have the bandwidth for more business. seriously, i don't have the bandwidth. glitchy video calls with regional offices? yeah, that's my thing. with at&t business, you do the things you love. our people and network will help do the things you don't. let's take care of business. at&t. ♪ if your money is working toward the same goals, why keep it in different places? sofi is a one-stop shop for your finances-
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good morning, that's my favorite luke bryan song, becky. i know, you don't really like it, though, because it's saying, you know -- >> i like it. >> you do, you like this song? i think you like the words. >> i like the song it's growing on me the words are, yeah, a lot of -- one more time. >> u.s. equity futures up about -- they're up now. 40 points. we got a ways to go after yesterday, but not as far as we would have had to go if we had closed down at the lows yesterday. we got the s&p up and the nasdaq, it seems most sensitive to worries about rising interest rates, and it's reflected that in some of the action we have seen in that index this week, andrew >> thanks, let's take a quick look at this new survey out this
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morning on the meaning of capitalism now, 22 new york university abu dhabi undergraduate students from 16 countries were asked what they think of when they hear the world capitalism and if america will remain the world's economic super power pollster. frank luntz conducted that survey and he joins us now let's start with the sound bite on whether these students give capitalism a thumbs up or a thumbs down. >> i think capitalism makes people, as i mentioned the word slave in a way that people are selling their time, selling their labor, selling their intellectuals in a competitive way that the capitalist decides which is better. >> so frank, was she representative of the view of that group >> yes, she was. and this is the most diverse
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globally interactive university on the face of the earth there are almost 100 countries represented, dozens and dozens of different languages, and they have the same conclusion that the economy is not what it was, they're not convinced that it is what it will be and these students are very vocal about wanting to have the same opportunities that existed before the pandemic and very concerned that capitalism doesn't spread those opportunities equally. i know that joe is going to yell about this, so let me preempt it there are a number of students who would identify themselves politically as left of center, but they still believe in compassionate capitalism in some sort of hybrid capitalism. it's not that they're rejecting the free market entirely whether you're from south america or asia or africa, they simply want capitalism to work for more people across the globe. >> frank, i'm not going to yell.
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i lived through the '60s and '70s watch easy rider, it can all be summed up with that old expression, if you're not a socialist when you're 20, you have no heart but if you're not a capitalist by the time you're 35, you have no brain and that sums it up i've got nothing else to say i'm not even saddened by it, it's so predictable and tiresome to me. and if they think china is a better place and a better economic model, walk in those shoes for a while. walk in a uyghur shoes, walk in someone's shoes over there in china for a while, and see if you don't want to come back. they're texting anti-capitalist stuff on their shiny new iphone eleven without the slightest awareness where that iphone, the slightest idea where that iphone came from. that's the funniest thing. but go ahead, i don't really care. >> let's hear what they have to say. >> i did on brett baird on wednesday night, i saw what they said.
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>> but they have reserved the best stuff for this show right here >> good. >> what was impressive about it, these are the best students, that they're specifically chosen to represent their countries and so they are very optimistic about their future but they do see the china economic miracle and what they communicate and what they say is it's not that their hostile to america, it's that they want china and america to find some sort of a cooperation, some sort of a collaboration so the world can benefit. i want to emphasize that these students are not your typical american students. they're not even your typical global students, they are the best of the best, and i have been using them for the last two, three years to understand the leading indicators of what young people's points of view will be as we look forward, and it does concern me they are too well educated and too well knowledgeable just to simply dismiss them. >> frank, let's take a look at a couple of other clips here
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you also ask them if the u.s. or china will become the top economic power in 20 years, and here's what they had to say. >> and with the development of internet, the development of more factories, more advanced technologies, our economic, our gdp growth speed will still be able to maintain, and as long as we are able to maintain the speed of growth, we'll definitely exceed america, and maybe the rest of the world. >> so the american empire is going by the way of the roman empire here? >> well, you know what, every empire at some point does. that's the truth, that empires can last a hundred to 200 years, but what is fascinating to me is that the chinese students are perfectly happy to give up political freedom to get economic freedom and that is a very dangerous precedent for this country, for america. because right now, they're selling the idea that capitalism simply shares it benefits to a limited number of people, that
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with the chinese model, you can't yell and scream and you can't be political, but you can still share the economic benefits of the economy, that it's actually economic freedom is a better model according to the chinese students than american political freedom >> so when you talk to these young people, do you think that by the time they're 35, as joe said, they're going to change their view i mean, if you follow these people, do you think it's going to be different later or do you think this is actually the c change >> i have been following them for three years. they want to learn chinese, they want to study at the schwarzman center in china. they're looking for an alternative to the united states because of our politics, because of our dissension, because of just the horrible disagreement that we have right now, and basically, the overall conclusion from all of this, the take away, is that what's happening to our politics is going to have an impact on whether we get the best and the
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brightest coming to america in the future they have always wanted to immigrate to the states, i'm very nervous about what they have to say that they're going to be looking eastward in the future. >> hey, frank. i looked really quickly at the screen, was trying to count up i know it's 22 students, you have been following them for three years. four of them were from china, including the two sound bites that we played is it all that surprising that they have some questions about capitalism when they were raised in a communist country >> when you look at the screen and see countries represented there, peru, columbia, russia, this is a global group of people, two from africa, three from europe. this is the world. this is the united nation, only effective, only where people listen to each other, and those students are being won over by the chinese students we had a wonderful conversation,
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on you tube, nyu abu dhabi is the most effective university at giving us a leading indicator of what really matters to the next generation and what matters to them is equality, more than freedom, is opportunity and prosperity, more than security and that's going to be a challenge for the u.s. going forward. >> fair enough frank, we appreciate it. we appreciate you doing this hit from the airport where are you, by the way? i mean, phil lebeau does airport hits, i don't think we have had guests do it from the airport yet. >> i'm in jfk, you can see the terminal behind me, all the different gates. >> and you found a quiet place, how did you find a quiet place you know a lot of people have books, dthey stack up a laptop with books, how are you setting this up? >> so i've got, i don't know if you can see it, but i've got a backpack underneath me, and so they don't throw me out, i've
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even got mcdonald's, and i've got a bottle of water so they don't toss me out. i have thought of everything to make this hit work. >> you made it work, frank thank you. i would say it's 2020 but it's 2021 and who knew that this is what it would all come to. but we appreciate it very very much see you soon becky. >> you got it. thanks andrew. when we come back, reddit getting closer to an ipo, we've got the details next plus, cathie wood has had a rough month, the numbers behind her big drop in the flagship fund straight ahead. and a reminder, you can watch or listen to us live anytime on the cnbc app.
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reddit is moving closer to going public
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timing, timing, chief executive steve huffman told "the new york times" that the social media toer operator is working toward that goal, naming drew valero to that post he previously ran financial operations for mattel and snap huffman told the paper that reddit did not have a specific time line for going public what if it got -- what if it goes public and gets heavily shorted, andrew? that's two incestuous, could it happen could it become a meme stock they got to get public fast. they got to get public fast. >> well, you're saying if it gets shorted then the reddit guys are going to put a short squeeze on it, we'll see >> yeah, that would be fun that would be fun. >> it's hard to know talk about a person who's become a hero of reddit, cathie woods,
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ark innovation etf now in the red for 2021 the flagship fund has dropped 24% from its all time high, including a 5% drop yesterday, wiping out the $23 billion in gains it had seen since the start of the year. some of the firm's biggest holdings have been declining, including tesla which has fallen 14% over the last three days square and roku have fallen amid the broader selloff. my bet, and i don't know if i'm right or wrong about this is i think that the number of people who have piled into this, and just the billions in assets that have gone into this etf have gone up over time. i mean, she's doing great in certain ways, so we'll see how it performs, though, over the long-term, and what happens especially in a world where we're seeing what's happening with interest rates. >> yes, that is very true in terms of all of these stocks even 25 points, and they think
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the world is ending, it looks like anyway, coming up, anyhow, moving on. shares of eventbrite, the company has helped register vaccination appointments, serendipitous how it happened, half a million people already. and helping eventbrite because a reopened economy would be a big boom to the company and its success. the ceo joins us nec don't miss amc ceo, lots of vowels and consonants, adam aron, on closing bell this afternoon as new york theaters prepare to reopen. "squawk box" is coming right back ♪ we could have shown them all ♪
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the pace of vaccinations is picking up event bright is a company at the center of the rollout. now helping schedule appointments stocks at an all-time high on optimism of an economic
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recovery they pointed to a recovery in paid ticket volumes although those levels obviously remain far below the previous year. event bright ceo and co-founder julia hart great to see you you've just got to go into the actual chronology of events that happened that got you into the vaccination scheduling business. how did it happen? >> absolutely. thanks for having me this morning. you know, it really started at the beginning of the year. the stories started to unfold in bra vard county, florida, where about 1/3 of their residents, population in that county of about half a million, 1/3 of their residents are over 65. they had their vaccinations, they were ready to go, they set up their registration site and within 24 hours it had all crumbled the reason why is the technology couldn't keep up with the demand we're seeing ten to one demand
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to supply on vaccination registration appointments and so someone on their team, the social media director, said why don't we try eventbrite. they were up and running prior to that they had long lines of their over 65 population standing in line outside waiting to get an appointment. it was a dire circumstance it came together in such a quick manner they didn't call us. eventbrite is a self-service platform we started to see that and did everything to help them both streamline the process as well as disseminate the information to create clarity and then it grew from there. we've seen over 39 states now using eventbrite almost 600,000 people accessing their vaccination registration appointment on the platform. >> amazing the mother of invention.
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necessity. they did it of their own it wasn't you. it was just your great platform and next thing you know all these vaccines so great federal government took notice and figured it out, right? i wish they would mimic what you do instead of outsourcing it >> it's hard to build a platform that can withstand that search technically we can meet that demand and i think that's why people are choosing eventbrite it's the ease of use super simple to sign up. it took us some work on our end to make sure that we could support this use case. we needed to get that provisional approval from hhs so our team just ran at it. because it's the right thing to do we're not profiting off this but obviously the second order benefit is that the sooner we can get vaccinated, the sooner
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we can get out. >> so important. obviously you're not ever going to be a stay-at-home beneficiary, although i'm just wondering did it give you time to do certain things at the company to prepare for reopening? and second, i'd like to hear whether you think things in texas, mississippi, even connecticut, are they going too fast or it can't come fast enough for you i'm sure you want it to be done safely, but it's important for your business that we get back to being able to do things like this >> that's right. we -- almost to the day a year ago covid impacted our business with the most devastating blow you could possibly imagine within two weeks we were processing more refunds than revenue in the month so that is -- that's a -- that's just a catastrophic event. live gatherings and the demand for event tickets completely dried up so we had no, you know, moment
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to even think about it we had to act and we pivoted quickly. within 30 days we really set the company up to survive this period of time and however long it would last. we pivoted the strategy. we created a new cost structure. we really stream lined our operations so we could get back to work to help creators we had almost 1 million creators use our platform last year these are small businesses these aren't big organizations that have a ton of free cash flow >> okay. i don't know, andrew, have you got a quick one? how much time? >> we're going to run out of time julia, great to see you. it's a longer conversation i want you to come on back to help us understand what may happen this fall and next winter and what you're starting to see. we'll do that as a tease so you can come back and have a conversation in the future great to see you thank you. when we come back, two big hours ahead.
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that could all change in 90 minutes. february's big jobs report predictions and instant analysis you're watching "squawk" on cnbc (splash) ♪♪ turn today's dreams into tomorrow's trips... with millions of flexible booking options. all in one place. expedia.
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all the things, all around you where you learn, work, and fly we help make them healthier. we are the people of abm. for more than 100 years, we've been a leader in making spaces cleaner, from the things you touch to the air you breathe. today, more than 100,000 of us are innovating to ensure spaces are more efficient, healthier and safer. abm. making spaces healthier for you. under pressure another selloff amid rising bond yields we'll get you ready for the trading day ahead. talking jobs and markets. a chip shortage pushing the auto industry. former ford ceo mark fields joins us with the latest on what it means for the auto sector.
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and connecticut, the latest to announce it's going to open fully for business the latest on the vaccine front and the push to reopen with dr. scott gottleib is coming up. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with becky quick and joe kernen. take a look at u.s. equity futures. lots could change as you can imagine. we're going to be getting the jobs number at 8:30 this morning. up 42 points s&p 500 would open up about 5 points higher. nasdaq would open down, however, about 9 points lower meantime, couple headlines as i just mentioned we're now about 90 minutes away from the february jobs report. economists looking for 210,000
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nonfarm jobs for the month that's the number to beat. unemployment rate remaining steady at 6.3% shares of costco meanwhile are lower this morning the warehouse retailer's earnings falling short of forecasts. sales above estimates. the company faces higher expenses due to various supply chain issues real estate deal has fallen apart. a provider of commercial real estate data has withdrawn an offer to join core logic first swooped in to buy a revised offered. rising interest rates, they cited, this is interesting, all corelogic's value into question. >> thanks, andrew. yesterday's market selloff was fueled by jay powell's comments on t"the wall street journal" jobs conference. it was saying inflation --
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inflation is likely to rise as the economy recovers but he thinks it will be temporary. good steve liesman joins us now with more not going to cause the fed to do anything too quickly good it's transient that's good. good have you got the bads outlined for me, steve? they're not going to do qe infinity to lower us back to 1.45 to 1.5? >> reporter: there you go. wouldn't be prudent. that's what you were making fun of there the best explanation for the powell prompted selloff what the fed chair said and maybe more importantly what he didn't say powell stuck to his very dovish thoughts the fed will keep rates low and decline in purchases all good as joe said
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>> businesses and people would need to believe larger increases in prices would be repeated year after year and we think it's unlikely that these deeply engrained low inflation ex expectation would suddenly change it's more than likely the effects would be one-time effects. >> reporter: what powell didn't say, they may have spoken largely to markets he said the recent rise in yields caught my attention but didn't suggest he was going to do anything about it the idea of the fed stepping in has been increasingly discussed in markets my reporting suggests powell at these levels of bond yields is not inclined to step in, wouldn't have full support of his committee if he did so the rise in rates is what the fed would expect and what they think should happen. we don't appear to be there yet. the markets want the fed to have their back on rates rising powell isn't ready to go there,
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joe. >> no, steve is there a level that would bring the fed in to cap yields i can't say that stay away from that, fed >> reporter: well, joe, let me do a little literature here. when two fed officials say the same thing on two separate days, it tells me that they're trying on some policy for the markets you'll note that brainerd on wednesday and then powell on thursday both said that the rise was notable and caught their attention, so let's game this out is the best you can do i don't think the fed knows if there's an area. i don't think powell wants to do it let's say 50, 150 on the 10-year is notable maybe they go to concerned at 175 and then maybe around 2% would be a place they would come in i'm just gaming that out, but it seems like they're trying on some new policy here with this idea of notable. maybe they go to concerned
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i don't think they want be to do anything they want to do this with their language concern and then maybe somewhere higher they end up coming in. >> what's your work showing you for the number today, steve? >> so you've got this 210,000 number, joe. the high frequency data i look at and other people on wall street look at, too, suggest some up side surprise is possible, but the trouble is we're just on the cusp when the survey was taken in the middle of the month on a couple of things one hand you had a bunch of business reopenings that seemed to happen more on the second half of the month and you also have the storms in the second half of the month. i think wall street is a little bit, i don't know, chaisent. i think we're on the cusp of a turn around in job growth where things are going to get better with the reopening, just not sure it's going to show up today. some possibility of an up size.
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>> all right, steve. thank you. we'll check back big numbers in it. when is it, 8:30 >> yeah. >> i know that >> reporter: not 8:29. not 31 >> right somebody yesterday said how many states are there and someone said, you know, i should get fired cnbc can't hire people who know how many states there are. i realize don't say anything you don't mean just don't do it because the lowest common denominator is out there that's going to think that you really -- i mean, who doesn't know there's 51 states, steve? unfortunately that may be -- that may be the future that may be the future depending on what happens. >> or 52. >> or 52 or 52. exactly. >> becky so you're going to have much less to say coming up.
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yeah aquaman. when we come back former ford ceo mark fields on the rise of electric vehicles and the chip shortage that car makers are facing now before we head to a break, let's get a check on the markets you'll see now, dow is actually in positive territory. up by 31 s&p up by 3. nasdaq down to 13. we'll be right back.
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there are reports the gm is looking to build a second battery factory in the united states joining us to talk about the auto industry's electric future and the chip shortage it's facing is mark fields. he's the former ford motor company president and ceo. always good to see you thanks for joining us today. >> hi, becky. >> you know, i wanted to start with what ron baron had to say because he's long been a tesla bull he's been in since i think 2014 in that stock. thinks it's really going to go
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up even though he sold some of the shares recently because of the huge rise it's seen. the thing that struck me is he's also made a recent investment in gm's cruz. he thinks the ev is coming i just wonder is the auto industry prepared for that are you as bullish as some of these ev investors have been >> well, i do think when you look at the ev investors, i think they're getting too caught up in some of the ev companies that are going public via spacs. but that being said, evs are here to stay and they're going to be growing. you have a number of products coming to the market this year and next year. the big question is are consumers going to show up at least the initial data so far is showing that electric vehicles are growing in the first couple of months of this year but again, becky, that's going to be dictated by how consumers feel about their ability to charge their vehicles conveniently and the infrastructure needs to be built
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out here in the u.s. and then secondly the costs right now electric vehicles are more expensive than internal combustion vehicles. that's going to be solved over the next couple of years if the government gets more active in providing incentives for electric vehicles, around that world that's proven to be, if you will, the formula for success for sales in the current term. >> who do you think comes out on top? we've seen tesla do incredibly well we're looking at some of the stocks at other new companies that have certainly won in the stock market recently. you have the entrants of all of the legacy car makers. how do you think it actually plays out? >> you're obviously going to see electric vehicles as a percent of the industry continue to grow when you look at first movers like tesla, you know, they tend to compete in the upper end of the market listen, they've done well. they're building plants in europe, another one here in the u.s. every vehicle that they're
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bringing out to the market is incr incremental. it's not impacting other vehicle sales. so i think they'll continue to be strong but don't under estimate the legacy oems ford, for example, is coming out with a number of electric vehicles the mach e is off to a great start. gm has said, listen, by 2035 all of their vehicles will be electrified. i think the market if you look at the market caps of these companies, the legacy oems, the market is getting the fact that you know what, they're going to produce good electrified vehicles and they know how to do it at scale and with quality you're going to see a lot of winners and companies that will get into operational problems, particularly those that are just targeting the very high iend of the market because that's only so big, becky. >> mark, we just saw this week we've been following the shortage of semiconductors and
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how it's impacted the auto industry gm says it's looking at extending some shutdowns because they can't get their hands on chips. how big of a problem is this what's the solution? >> well, this is a big problem you've seen the down times the oems or automakers have announced. to put it into perspective, some plants have been down the month of february. some oems say they'll be down through april and mid may. that's almost as much as the plants were down last year during covid it's not all the plants, but still it will shave about 700,000 units off here in the u.s. the first quarter production it's a big deal. it's probably going to go longer than people expect and we all know the reasons why, right? people are using -- working from home, buying laptops, buying more wi-fi access points and
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upgrading broad bands. the bottom line is the capacity in the industry has been strained and it's been exacerbated by things like if you look at amd, that's taking share from intel intel has captive foundries. amd goes to the outside foundries just like the auto industry i think this is going to persist for quite some time. the thing that's going to solve it is people coming out of covid and spending more time at home and more capacity coming online. >> mark, maybe i'm wrong on this maybe part is the just in time sort of supply chain that we've set up over the years. the automakers lost their semiconductor chips because they canceled the orders. forget it. we're not taking cars. the semiconductor companies went and found other suppliers. you get your supply back and
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they weren't going to take it because they were down is that a problem or am i conflating it? >> no. when you look at the auto industry, it's all about just in time delivery on top of very complex supply chains. keep in mind, becky, oems don't buy chips directly from these fabricators. they actually are bought by their suppliers and so it's a very long and complex supply chain and the lead time these days is, you know, somewhere in the neighborhood of 26 weeks so the solution going forward for the oems is to make more commitments, more hard and fast commitments for their suppliers for these parts that have a lot of semiconductor chips and it's going to take a while to work itself out because that capacity has to come online bottom line is the automakers don't have a lot of sway with the semiconductor manufacturers because it's still a relatively small portion of the semiconductor manufacturers'
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customer set >> one other issue, the idea that this is going to last longer than we've been anticipating, that's bad news for jobs we're watching jobs very closely. probably also bad news for consumers just in terms of what they're paying for not only new cars but used cars too. >> you're exactly right. even before the chip shortage there's been very tight in the auto industry. the day's supply was 53 day supply the normal supply should be around 65, 66 days so it's very, very tight so what consumers are seeing right now are tight supplies, higher prices because the automakers don't have to put as much incentives on the vehicles. you saw that in the transaction prices last month here in the u.s. it was over $38,000. a record and that will then have an impact on used car prices which are very high.
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so for the time being going forward with the tight inventories you're going to see elevated prices, less discounts and consumers are going to have to hunt more for those good deals in the marketplace >> mark, great to see you. thanks for your time >> thanks, becky >> andrew. coming up when we return, stocks on the move this friday morning plus a lot more on yesterday's moving interest rates and the impact on the markets. the nasdaq hitting a 2-month low and level nearly 10% below the february record high "squawk" returns and big employment number later in the day. back in a moment time now for today's aflac trivia question. what are the top 3 pizza chains by sales in the united states? the answer when cn'ssqwk x"onnuesbc "ua go aflac!!! what the heck, troy - that's not your kid! the aflac duck is just covering for sophie.
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same way he got me money to help cover her hospital bill when my health insurance didn't pay for all of it. but this isn't fair! that's exactly what i said! but then i learned health insurance isn't even supposed to cover everything. wait...for real? for real real. luckily i had aflac. aflac!!! get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover. go aflac! !mm-hm! get to know us at (soft music) (announcer) this is chet. !mm-hm! he loves monday through friday but lives for the weekend. ♪ he's put some miles on his truck and now, it's time for something new. so he came to truecar and saw what other people paid for the same truck he wants. ♪ now, he can recognize a great price. truecar was so easy, chet was in and out and got right on back to the life he loves. before you buy a car or truck, see what others paid for it with truecar.
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♪ ♪ now the answer to today's aflac trivia question.
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what are the top 3 pizza chains by sales in the united states? the answer, domino's, papa john's and little caesar's >> welcome back to "squawk." we've got some big news, folks, if you live in the twitter universe the social media company is now reportedly testing an undo send feature. it's not an edit feature you can't go back and change your tweet they're citing an app researcher and tipster named jane manchin long once you hit send on a tweet, a timer starts and you get five to six seconds to hit undo. when asked in the past jack dorsey has ruled out the idea of an edit button this gives you a little bit more flexibility. i can tell you it's helped me a couple of times. i have an undo feature on my email which has a ten second timer i think on it.
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sometimes i'll think, oh, i didn't spell that word right or i need to change that but then i still send out emails with typos by crazy. >> it's not the spelling i'd worry about. it would not be the spelling with me. it would be oh, my gosh did i actually say that? >> no, but you do that five or six seconds before you hit it normally and i do too. >> i do too. >> i've deleted some in like a minute or two that are like, yeah, that doesn't look that good i think it's sort of okay. does it really mean that there are some -- there are some great words. if you look at the derivation, whoa, is it that body part. >> this is a save you from yourself function. it's a good idea. >> if you could undo that licking thing that you tweeted,
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sorkin, would you in hindsight undo that now or you're good with that? >> i'm cool with it. 3.5 million impressions later, i'm cool with it. >> any publicity is good publicity. >> that's not true. >> spell my name right. >> you're on tv. you realize that >> although, you know, i wonder sometimes, andrew. i do it can get so bad. there is some bad that becomes -- that eventually does become -- because any fame in this world look how some people become famous and they're still going strong think about that. >> sure. but i think that -- i think it's much more of a high wire act today and i hate to say people get canceled, but i think it's much, much tougher >> no. i was thinking on the way in the twitter mob is responsible for -- like i said earlier, we've had periods in the past where we got very -- you know,
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where the younger generation was very idealistic and sort of out of touch with what the real world was like we never canceled lincoln, andrew we're going r going places that some news organizations base their content on 4,000 twitter people i'm not sure twitter is a great invention, are you >> i have mixed views. >> i like what alec baldwin said i think yesterday when he canceled his twitter account. >> yeah. you're quoting him what did he say? >> i can't repeat it. >> you can't repeat it. >> can't repeat it on tv >> basically it's where all the jerks in the world go to get better at being jerky, you know, but different words. >> there's a man who knows from whence he speaks, you know
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anyway, coming up, your market and maybe i do, too. coming up, your market minute. later, dr. scott gottleib. we're coming right back. ♪ if your money is working toward the same goals, why keep it in different places? sofi is a one-stop shop for your finances- designed to work better together. spend with sofi and get cash back rewards that automatically go toward your goals. like investing in stocks, etfs, and crypto. that's better together. or pay down your sofi debt sooner. that's better together. and that's how sofi is helping millions get their money right. ♪ ♪
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♪ ♪ all right. welcome back to "squawk box. let's do some work here and get you caught up on some of the themes you should watch heading into the big jobs report coming up in an hour's time the nasdaq composite, down 2% yesterday but more importantly for some investors and traders out there, that brings the peak to current level fall of down 10%. it reached that so-called correction territory that some traders like to look at. the 10% pull back from the market highs when you look at some of the etfs that we've been focusing on over the course of the last several months, the ark innovation etf is emblematic of the time more than doubling since last year since the highs, we've lost about 25% of that etx value.
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big investor of tesla, docusign. ark innovation one to watch as well if you are looking for a reason why things aren't worse in the market, check out what's happening with inflation expectations yes, driving some of the inflation innovations. if inflation were picking up in a substantial way, gold prices would be moving higher it has done that in the past you can see over the near to medium term. they have fallen and continue to fall if inflation is a real worry, it's not manifesting itself in the gold market. one other place to watch in times of stress the high yield or junk bond market reacts pretty negatively. we've been fairly static very narrow one for this particular etf, ibach corporate yield etf. hasn't been for much of that time keep an eye on gold and junk
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bonds and the big technology stocks i'll send things back over to you. >> thank you, dom. great to see you have a great weekend. coming up on the other side of this break, spacs, they're coming back to earth look at some of the names taking some of the biggest hits over the past few weeks want to get a check on the 10-year note as well the move lower for stocks as yields are surging despite fed chairman powell's surges that the fed chairman will do all in its power to keep inflation in their control. we'll talk all about it at the end of the break stments, key portfolio events, all in one place. because when it's decision time, you need decision tech. only from fidelity.
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welcome back, everybody. welcome back after thursday's decline, the cnbc spac 50 index is negative for the year and down more than 17% over the last week leslie pickers here. she's got a look at who has taken the biggest hit on this. leslie, this is something to see. what's up. >> reporter: yeah. that's right, becky. it's kind of a reckoning here. the cnbc 50 index holds the largest 50 spacs to announce a deal they're kind of in that wait and see period among the biggest decliners are those with the biggest market star power
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chamath palihapitiya's spac. gary cohn's specific trading back around its ipo price. some of the skittishness surrounds from the fact there's so much capital chasing so much deals which can lead to higher prices paid and shoddy due diligence. in the first two months. year alone nearly $70 billion has been raised to over 200 spacs. that equates to more than five spacs a day. if that pace were to continue for the rest of the year, it would be five times the level of last year's way record-breaking year perhaps the breaking point from the market standpoint and sentiment may have been ten days ago when a spac managed by banker michael klein had an electric vehicle maker tieup with lucid motors. the market hated the terms of the deal and it crashed.
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a warning deal for other spac investors. still awaiting their deal. guys. >> leslie, thank you andrew, go ahead >> leslie, the one question i have for you, you're seeing the despacced companies get hurt that i get what i don't understand is some of the companies that are still in spac mode, meaning pre-despacced given they typically should be trading around $10 and technically you should be getting your $10 back. what's going on there? >> that's a really good point. these companies, they'll ipo almost always at $10 a share and theoretically what you're ipo 'ing is a pile of cash there isn't anything that should be driving that price higher or lower because there's nothing that's fundamentally changing before they announce a deal. this is 2021 things don't always operate the way they logically should. a lot of times you'll get spacs
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managed by some of the stars we laid out earlier people get excited about the prospect of the deal you can see things that ipo for $10 a share go way up to $50 a share for no real reason other than the potential for a deal to get done other than what the market seems excited about that's what you're seeing take place. people are starting to say, hey, wait a minute, maybe a deal is not so imminent. maybe we're not so excited about the deals coming from other spac managers what does that say about the holdings that we have in various spacs. that's the sentiment going on with investors right now. >> leslie picker, thank you. our spac du jour commentator yesterday i wish i was faster because when farley was on, he said you and i had a spat. i should have said did you and andrew have a spac did you hear that? was that not -- would that not
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have been like perfect >> that would have been -- >> that would have been -- but you know what, missed opportunity. >> missed opportunity. we get the opportunity to do it right now, see >> that's right. what did the -- did the ocean run out of shrimp? remember when george costanza came up with that? he tries to steer the conversation back to the previous argument? that's where we are. anyway i can't stop i can't stop with the -- tech stocks getting crushed in yesterday's selloff. bank stocks are now off their highs. facebook off 15% apple down 17% amazon off 16% joining us now, it's all running together, stephanie, because i think i just talked to you about that was that on another show you got a lot of smart comments about what's going on with tech. chief investment strategist at hightower and dan ives managing director at webbush securities
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i think we had this conversation about rising rates and tech and what finally happens is there a dip to be bought? or is there more interest rate pressure to be weary of? >> i think you have to be selective and by the way, good morning. i think you have to be selective on technology at this point, joe. in technology you want to be more on the cyclical side of things because the end markets are actually seeing a lot of growth, a lot of momentum. i think faang, faang was last year's story, last couple of years story. they're over owned not particularly expensive, but i don't think that there's a lot of catalyst to get them higher in fact, on net net i was a seller of facebook i am making my bet on alphabet because i do think there's operating leverage i think there's operating margin expansion and leverage there as well they're buying back a lot of stock. that's the one i would play within fang. where i want to be, i would be
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buying broad com all day long. i thought that quarter was phenomenal 14% organic growth, 23% operating profit growth. pre-cash flow 25% growth they're doing all the right things, data center, cloud 20% is apple exposure. you get a lot of the good end market growth and it's actually at a very reasonable market. and xpi. $2 billion buy back on top of the buy backs that they're doing. it's auto. it's contactless pay i think there are places in tech you want to be you can be selective there is more on the cyclical side semi, semicap equipment >> good summary. dan, you beat the bushes you go through the weeds you analyze income statements, think about innovation and everything else. and then all of a sudden 50 basis points comes along do you just throw out your entire thesis on all technology
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when something macro happens does it help all that work you do when something like a different interest rate environment can affect valuations >> i think to me it creates a golden buying opportunity. we think tech stocks are still up 30% from here when i look at the innovation on cloud, cyber security, 5g a fourth industrial revolution, what we're seeing here, this is a pound the table moment in my opinion, this is a time you look across the docusigns, the apples, the z scalers. i view this as a golden opportunity to own tech. we're not changing our thesis because there's a 50 bip moving the 10-year. >> i guess, dan, if you look at the stock market over time, that makes sense almost all the time if you can keep your cool, keep your head. if the market was at 800 in
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1981, and we know where it is now, then any time macro factors cause you to get nervous and sell, that is the time to add to your positions is it that simple with technology with ones that have a great future >> that's the last 48 hours. i was up until midnight last night with pms going through the names and levels where you want to pound the table and own these names. i think that's sort of my view in terms of where we go on tech. we're talking $2 trillion that's going to be spent on cloud, cyber security, 5g over the coming years and ithink there's a bit of a misnomer in terms of the return to the office, the work from home and tech stories dead i think we're only halfway through it in my opinion >> the only thing, stephanie, i think this goes to your point, is that if you did that with tech in the past, if you bought the leading tech companies at any given time after a dip, sometimes you were buying
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yesterday's innovators that were totally disrupted so many times we've goon over it before, the digital equipment. all of those high flyers that are now gone so you've got to pick the right tech to buy. >> reporter: you know, i think that's spot on, joe. dan, i totally agree with you on total addressable market in cloud and ai, in wearables, in retail ecommerce i've been talking about that for quarters, months, years now, but i do feel like it's known in terms of the faang names, right? i think that's why you have to be more selective in terms of what you want to own you definitely want to have exposure to technology you want to go where it's less crowded. 90%, 95% of the sell sides have buys on the tech side. the fact of the matter is, if you look at the s&p 500 and the weightings of amazon and of apple and of microsoft, it's 4, 5, 6% of the benchmark so you
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have to have some exposure, right? but it just tells you that they're very, very over owned. so i think it can take a bit of time to consolidate. that's why i think you want to find other areas that are less obvious at this point and also better valuations. >> none of us live forever, i w wasives. the etf named after you, is that going to live forever? >> i think that sort of speaks to our longer term view on cloud. >> it speaks to you and your clout and your visibility. some old friend of mine from the nyse wrote that, that puts you definitely head and shoulders above everybody else because you have your own symbol stephanie, linked-in, that's not you, is it no relation, stef? >> no relation. >> you've got nothing?
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cnbc -- >> i got nothing. >> you're a cnbc contributor. >> right. >> doesn't get any better. >> absolutely. >> thank you, dani ves happy birthday. >> happy birthday. >> too close to monday andrew. okay, guys coming up on the other side of this break, connecticut, the latest thing out of a lot of businesses to reopen at full capacity on march 19th and the most drastic easing from any of the northeastern states. we're going to speak with dr. scott gottleib in a bit and find out if states are moving too fast to reopen or not. we'll be right back after this
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welcome back to "squawk box. connecticut is now the latest state to allow businesses to reopen at full capacity beginning march 19th joining us now to discuss that and so much more about where we are as hopefully this pandemic i want to say winds down i know we've got work to do here he serves on the boards of illumina and pfizer. he happens to be a residents of connecticut, a place that i've been spending a lot of time in as well over the past year i'm headed there this weekend, scott. tell me what you think of this decision by the governor >> well, look, i think it's a middle path. the governor isn't fully reopening the state in the way texas did. masks are still required this begins in two weeks
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they'll continue to monitor the data they're still going to keep the curfew in place on restaurants restaurants can't turn into bars it's not quite the full reopening that texas did i think the governor is carving a prudent path massachusetts went a little bit further. i think they've opened up their bars there this is what states need to be contemplating. what can you do that allows business activity to return, allows people to get back to some semblance wave of normal. by leaving the mask mandate in place, that's going to offer added protection >> the only thing that i guess in all of this is, a, hopefully we're 8 to 12 weeks away from really a lot more vaccines being available and larger -- much larger percentages of the
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country and states like connecticut being vaccinated first of all so, you know, would it hurt to wait an extra four weeks, six weeks, eight weeks. the second piece is i completely agree with you in terms of the good news is there is going to be masking i questioned whether they were courting trouble, if you will, by doing a full reopening of restaurants to full capacity given that that's something that's indoors where the truth is you can't wear a mask >> yeah. look, i don't think we're going to be able to wait a full six weeks. depends on what happens. if the situation continues to improve, i think consumers are going to go out. i think we're trying to fit policy to accommodate what consumers are going to be doing. this isn't happening tomorrow, it's happening in two weeks. a mask mandate still in place. the other thing to consider is the overall risk to the population has gone down substantially. 16% has at least one dose of the vaccine, 8% are fully vaccinated connecticut has done better in
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most states than getting it into older populations. they've done an age-based approach they've been successful in getting 65 and older vaccinated. it allows you to lean forward a little bit if we have 1,000 infections now in the state, that's a lot different than 1,000 infections 10 months ago when none of the vulnerable residents of the state were vaccinated. i think you need to provide a pathway that allows people to get back to a normal way obviously if the situation changes b.1.1.7 is changing in the situation. they'll reassess it. this is the kind of thing. you can quibble whether two weeks is right, whether you should have waited three weeks, four weeks, it's the kind of thing we need to do around the country is providing a map of where we're heading if the situation continues to improve without taking our foot off the brake. leaving the masks in place having that be the last thing we lift, that's prudent.
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>> just so we're clear, the indoor restaurant piece doesn't bother you >> look, would i eat in an indoor restaurant? no i'm going to be going out to restaurants, i'm sure, over the course of march, but i'm going to be eating outside it doesn't seem like a risk that's worth taking to me. a lot of people have been fully vaccinated, a lot of people have had the infection, a lot of people who are young and not as worried about the infection, i expect those are people going out and dining indoors when you look at restaurants now even at 25% capacity, they're not full people will go back to restaurants not when governors tell them, they'll go back when they feel safe if the situation continues to improve in the state and people start to feel safe, they start to get vaccinated, i think that's when you're going to see people return. >> separately, fascinating story in today's "new york times" about the johnson & johnson vaccine given that it's one jab rather than two. a number of states that seem to be very hopeful about it in large part it sounds like
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because they won't have to staff necessarily the second vaccine component. so they think it's a better course in certain circumstances. what do you make of that given some of the efficacy issues we've talked about >> yeah, look, there's logistical advantages to a single-dose vaccine. i'm very reluctant to make comparisons across the different vaccines they all have certain advantages there's pros and cons to them. the johnson & johnson is easier to administer right now. a single dose vaccine. the other have different data associated with them all of these are good. any consumer who's offered a vaccine should take the vaccine that's offered there's going to be a study underway looking at the two doses. what they will do is take the trial that's underway and convert that from a one dose to a two-dose trial it may well be that the two-dose data provides significantly
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improved he have if i ka s so we need to wait and see how the dataset evolves. there are added advantages to it not just in terms of the storage requirements but as you said, it's a single dose administration >> scott, one other question we had the eventbrite folks on earlier that do scheduling for vaccines but they also do scheduling for events and parties and all sorts of things. i'm curious how the world will look come this fall. the reason i've asked is you've made a couple of suggestions that this spring and summer may be great but you've made comments to me that make me think come october, november, december things may get complicated again. i know a lot of companies and businesses that are looking for activities for employees, conference, events, all sorts of things and how they should think about that >> yeah, look, i think as long as we don't have another epidemic in the south as people move indoors to get air
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conditioning, and i think we can avoid that, this summer, we're going to head into the fall with low prevalence of infection. you won't see infection levels start to build until the later half of the fall as we get into august, september, maybe even into october hopefully infection levels are low this is all predicated on what the variants are doing i think as we get into november we'll start to see infection levels build december and january could be the tricky months. i think third quarter meetings, third quarter events are going to happen. third quarter board meetings as you get into the later fourth quarter, that's when you could see business activity start to slow again assuming we do have the quiescent summer, assuming we don't make the mistake of allowing outbreaks to happen in the late summer, it will take time for the infection levels to build in the country, especially against a vaccinated population to get to the point that it
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would affect business activity. >> you wouldn't commit to a board meeting in december it sounds like then or not? >> i would not i would -- if i was a company, i'd be trying to get a third quarter board meeting in and then touch and go fourth quarter. you could plan it, but we'll have to see how it goes. >> okay. scott gottleib appreciate it as always. joe? >> thanks a lot. thanks, andrew coming up, much more on markets after yesterday's selloff. plus the jobs report is just over half an hour away we'll bring you the numbers as soon as they cross "squawk box" coming ght ckriba ♪ i'm taking what they're givin because i'm working to are a living ♪ inflation rising and currencies falling. but i've seen centuries of rises and falls. i had a love affair with tulips once. lived through the crash of '29 and early dot-com hype. watched mortgages play the villain beside a true greek tragedy.
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good morning a little stability in the premarket after comments from fed chair jerome powell. spooked investors. he didn't suggest he'd do anything about it. sticking with the inflation theme, it's anything but theoretical for those trying to get their hands on a new or used car. we'll lay out all of the factors driving auto prices higher economic number of the week is 30 minutes away. we have full coverage of the february jobs report it is all straight ahead as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now.
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good morning and welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. jobs friday. march, a february report they are indicated in the green. weakness early on. it would have looked like a little bit of a replay of yesterday although it was -- the market did come back quite a bit from its lows and now we're up a little bit more getting some of the 300 plus points back on the dow. negative on the year and 10% off the record high.
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treasury yields, something we watch closely now on the 10-year. back above 1.5 just under 1.6%. 1.57 stocks fell yesterday following comments from jerome powell. the fed chairman said the u.s. central bank would be patient before changing its policy even though he acknowledged that the recent rise in interest rates was happening. and the opening of the economy could cause that to move further with upward pressure on prices that message of patience disappointed some who had hoped he would signal more of an openness to changing fed policy, which to me is just -- changing fed policy at this point means tightening, doesn't it you're not getting looser. is that what they were di disappointed about >> they want more pe.
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>> looser? >> the reality is the economy is getting better you should expect and anticipate rates to go up on the other side people argue, okay, what about jobs? that hasn't been following as quickly. is there anything the fed could or should do on the front. that might be one area for debate this is what happens when things get better, rates should go up >> when you hear the fed might change -- if you on a normal day heard, you know what, fed's not going to be changing policy any time soon, good. >> right that would normally be enough. >> rates are moving on their own. they want more suppression of the market. >> it moved 20 basis points away from where they wanted it to be. borrowing at 1.3 but 1.5, forget it
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forget it. no way i'm done i'm finished i'm out. selling everything that's ridiculous, isn't it, on a 10-year? >> yes >> remember 5, 6, 7, 8, 12, 13. >> my parents had a mortgage at 18% at one point on one of their houses. >> 21.5% prime rate. >> all these people who call me boomer, you tell them that, what >> wow, you are a boomer >> there are some advantages i told someone yesterday, everything that you've seen in your life, i have seen, okay but i also saw the moon landing live and a lot of other things so remember that but i wasn't bitter about it. hey, andrew, all of these people are going to live forever. did you notice that? i've got bad news for them the next 20 years is going to go -- they're going to remember their -- >> i have seen the future and you will be sorry. >> yeah. they're going to remember their
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ageist comments and regret it if they're lucky enough to make it. >> okay. let's get you caught up on some stories that investors are going to be talking about today. the senate is set to debate on president biden's $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief bill. this comes after vice president kamala harris broke a 50-50 tie yesterday on a decision to move forward. republicans delayed the process by forcing a reading of the bill which runs 628 pages three hours of debate will be followed by senators offering amendments a final vote might extend into the weekend. yesterday was also another tough day for one of the market's hottest investors of late. check out the drop in kathy woods ark innovation etf tapping tech shares. square was under pressure and tesla contributed to the fall. the etf is now negative for the year though it's still more than doubled over the last 12 months. check out shares of virgin
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galactic virgin galacticis trading righ around -- down by 5% chamath palihapitiya sold his holdings for more than $200 million. he still owns though close to 16 million shares with investment partner ian osborne. andrew >> thanks, becks we've been focusing all morning on the rise in rates and the latest downturn in shocks. want to get straight over to cnbc's market commentator mike santoli with insight on whether or not we're likely to see more declines mike >> 5% pull back. pretty routine a lot more damage in the areas that did over shoot. nasdaq 100 etf qqq remember around labor day, september 2nd. that was a peak of $302.
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right there at the time it was the only game in town, the huge faang and faang-related stocks >> if you thought everybody was too interested in faang right there, it seems faang is a sideline and they haven't participated in most of the up move facebook and google were up yesterday. some of the frothier parts of the market have absolutely had a bit of a reckoning a variety of these, tesla and this is on a year-to-daze date basis. from the highs, spacs, tesla, biotech very quietly down 25% from the highs high flying, high concept tech shares down on average up more than 20% from the highs is that enough i don't know the year to date declines are relatively modest. the yield story has been manifesting itself in the market investors flinching ahead of the possibility that the markets have to find the pain point for
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how high yields can go while banks versus utilities just on a one-month basis, that's a massive dump that means the market's already integrating this into what sectors have been working and not working. i don't know that it's necessarily news to the stock market that in fact yields might have some further up side. that's what this adjustment has been about it's been painful. much more of a messy rotation than a seamless one. that's what's going on now >> before you go, by the way, how does today's jobs numbers we're getting literally in something like 20 minutes play into the immediate market outlook in your mind >> in general, the market is going to be for giving if it's a weak jury number they're much more acutely sensitive. a super hot number means the economy is going to run, it's a great news you'll have to look at reaction in the bond market i think a weak number you could write it off as, well, we haven't accelerated yesterday.
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we haven't fully reopened. we had weather issues in february maybe a little asymmetrical response whether it's too hot a number. >> fair enough mike santoli, great to see you as always. becks? >> thanks, andrew. joining us now to talk more about this week's market volatility including in tech and bonds is jason trennert. chairman at strategis securities you are talking about the nasdaq in correction territory coming down 10% from the highs that we've seen recently. you don't think this is something to really worry about or the end of the bull market though, do you >> i don't, becky, because i think generally speaking stock prices go up at the same time for the bulk of most markets it's not the first tightening or two that gets you, it's the last one. i take chairman powell at his word that they're not even thinking about tightening.
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and so i think this is just a natural progression of a bull market the earnings yield on the stock market is about 300 basis points higher than the 10-year treasury yield which if you look at march of 2000, it was 10%. the earnings yield was 3 that's when i get worried. when you have this much of a risk premium built into the stock market, it's -- i just think it's just part of the natural start and drag of a natural economy. >> that's really good to point out. 6% yielding on the 10-year back in 2000 the last time that all happened that's a big difference. we worry about 8 basis points here, 20 basis points there. >> right. >> jason, one thing i'll say, you said it's not the first hike that gets you, but we are playing in a little bit of a
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different time with qe being part of the reason there's so much liquidity out there how do you think that plays into this or how you would play it? >> yeah, listen. in some ways -- i mean, i was alive. i wasn't an investor when chairman volker was around it was very clear reading the history that he was very much focused on one part of the fed's mandate at that time, which was price stability and breaking the back of inflation. if that meant weaker jobs for a while, he was willing to accept that in my opinion, chairman powell is on the other end of that spectrum where he's saying, listen, the most important part of my mandate now is jobs and a very broad definition of jobs, what steve liesman called u-6. you want to get the 10 million people that were not in the work force that are in the work force a year ago you want to get them back to work and we're going to not worry about inflation in the
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interim until we get those folks back to work i think it's very clear, sometimes i think with the fed there's a tendency, white smoke, black smoke. trying to see blinking morse code, you know, to tell us something different. i just kind of take the fed at its word that it's going to remain easy a lot longer than people think my own opinion is that people are going to have to get accustomed to meaningfully higher long-term interest rates. and by meaningful, i'm not -- it's not what you and joe were talking about before, i'm saying like 2.5%, not out of the realm of possibility given the fact that nominal gdp growth this year could easily be 8%, 9%. i just think we have to get more accustomed to higher numbers. >> so you like the stock market. you feel comfortable with it, especially given the pull back we have seen a much bigger pull
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back in the nasdaq than we have the dow. there is a bit of a rotation taking place into the industrials, into the manufacturing companies away from the technology companies and away from the stocks that really soared during the pandemic as we look towards things really opening up what would you do? >> yeah. we have -- it's not the most non-consensus view we have a very strong bias towards the value-oriented sector financials, industrials, basic materials and energy i think last year, becky, the real questions about the fact that there wasn't enough growth so people were willing to spend almost anything to get secular growers. i think this year given the amount of stimulus coming down the pike, it's very difficult not to get very strong growth and it's going to be happening in places that are somewhat, for lack of a better term, somewhat more mundane it will be happening in banks. it's going to be happening in industrial companies, energy, basic materials and so that's
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why i think this is happening. a lot of the tech stocks, especially the high flyers, you would call them very long duration stocks that have not been discounted by any sort of higher interest rate and that's starting to happen now so i wouldn't be short anything because money is growing at 26% but we feel very comfortable being market weight technology and over weight the more cyclical, value oriented parts of the market. >> not to mention i saw somebody point out earlier there's something like $3 trillion on the sidelines worldwide. so like you mentioned, don't be short because you don't know who's going to come rushing in when some of that stuff happens. >> that's right. the biggest net buyer of stocks over the past 12 years since the last financial crisis were companies themselves through share repurchases. today my own opinion is that the retail investor, and not necessarily through robinhood,
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just through regular people that are going to find it difficult to be sitting with so much money in money market funds as inflation rises, i think they're going to be more natural buyers of the market and that's a healthy thing. and it seems to make a lot of sense to me, that you don't want to get -- you don't want to continue to get negative real returns since the fed is telling you they want more inflation and so to me that's a good thing. it's not a bad thing >> very calming chat thanks, jason. good to see you. have a great weekend >> thank you you too. coming up, the jobs report for february february jobs report wall street waiting anxiously for this one just a few minutes away as you can see there. we need a millisecond counter there. first as we head to break though, check out the shares of the gap. the company is predicting an apparel sales rebound this year as people actually care about how they look once the pandemic
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recedes. that's possible. gap's most recent quarter did see sales come in below wall street forecast. an online sales surge helped offs aet decline in traffic in sales surge. stay tuned, you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc
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coming up when we return the possibility of inflation seems to be growing by hour. we found it in the action in the auto lot that's where we're focusing next the multitude of factors driving up the price of a new or used set of wheels. phil lebeau is going to break it down for us when "squawk" returns after this it was the age of wisdom... ♪ ooh la la by cherie ♪ the moxie showerhead speaker. only from kohler. we see homes staying cooler, without the planet getting warmer. at emerson, we drive the adoption of more environmentally friendly refrigerants, for a greener,
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looking for signs of inflation, head to the auto lot. phil lebeau joins us with a look at what is driving car prices higher hi, phil. >> reporter: hey, joe, raw material costs that's what it's all about we wanted to see what the automakers are dealing with. check out the chart. this is according to data from alex partners, a consulting firm just outside of detroit. works with the auto industry we are at an all-time high in terms of raw material costs up $1152 compared to the averages of last year now at almost $3,000 per vehicle in terms of raw material costs when you break it down, raw materials have exploded. platinum metal steel doubled in price, copper, aluminum all shooting higher. one or two raw materials are at
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the same price or slightly lower. everything else is up. that's done this to the auto stocks not a whole lot. why? because they're all trading higher on the expectations of developing electric vehicles but make no mistake, it is weighing on their margins earlier this week we heard from carlos stavaris, he called raw material costs one of the greatest obstacles they are facing they are able to pass this along to the consumer. fourth quarter, record highs in terms of how much people are borrowing to take out an auto loan up almost $2,000 the monthly payment at 576 is also at record high. when you see this periodically, maybe every three or four years, joe, raw materials move higher, but what they're seeing now, they've never seen it happen this quickly >> weird it's not just the way it used to be where it would be like big things like metal and all the
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components a lot of it is chips >> well, no, no, no, you're talking about metal. >> metal too. >> steel mills some had to shut down because of cov covid-19 then when you look at aluminum, joe, it's not just run-of-the-mill aluminum, highly specialized and a number of different varieties going into vehicles, especially electric vehicles that's driving up the costs as well. >> what about internet it hasn't lowered -- nobody goes to a dealership anymore. are you seeing any -- >> well, you're talking about in terms of the sales process. >> overall overall. doesn't seem like cars have gone up that much even with the raw material costs because there's pressure -- >> reporter: no, i disagree. transaction prices are almost $40,000 for a vehicle.
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that's a record high new vehicle. used side, they're record high they're at over $20,000. we are seeing this move higher >> inflation adjusted, is it -- so it's significant? >> it's still significant. i don't have the exact percentage when you do inflation adjusted, but there is no doubt. you talk to people in the auto industry, they will tell you, they are feeling the pain right now in terms of raw material costs. >> wait until interest rates go up >> yeah. that will just add phil lebeau, thank you becky. >> reporter: you bet >> thanks, guys. when we come back, the february jobs report our expert paneling is all set to go. we're going to get them ready for last-minute predictions and we'll get you adfothrey r e number of the morning. "squawk box" will be right back. ♪ now here we go ♪ ♪ i can't help it if i'm poppin' see them watch like ♪ ♪ who that girl ♪ ♪ it's outrageous how this flavour got em shook like ♪ ♪ hold up ♪ ♪ work work work it out ♪ ♪ ah ha ♪
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welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. we're just a few minutes away from the labor department's february employment report ahead of the number, let's welcome our jobs panel, kate morehead of theme mat particulars strategy jason furman is a former
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chairman of the council of economic advisers. viola richardson our own steve liesman and our own rick santelli. i don't need to describe either one of those gentlemen they're well known kate, we're going to go around like this. i'll start with you, kate. what are you expecting we have about a minute >> okay. very quickly i went with 271, which is above consensus at 200 right now i think that the reopening has more than offset any of the decline in jobs we might have seen from the weather snap in february. >> jason, i'm going to get to some of my other questions later. some of larry somers >> you love larry, right brought up under larry, somers, right? >> of course i love larry. 200,000 with the consensus march is going to be way better. >> get ready for the questions
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larry. mila, what kind of numbers >> between 150 to 175 below consensus benchmark with the adp numbers we released this week. >> i think i need to go to you, rick if we don't go left to right. >> 400,000, 6.1. >> steve, i'm going to you because you have the number. >> not just yet, joe i need a couple of seconds there we go. nonfarm payrolls give me a second here. >> take your time. >> nonfarm payrolls are -- say it again i didn't hear that 379,000. 379, joe, i've got consensus -- better than the consensus. january revised up to 166. labor force participation rate 61.4 looking for the unemployment rate i have the u-6 at 11.1 unchanged. i don't see the unemployment rate let me go to the other source of
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data here. just a second. it looks like it came in 379 above. 6.2 on the unemployment rate is the number i need to open up what's called the b1 table here live on national television to give you some of the other data here. goods producing down 48,000. total private up 465 which tells me the government also lost jobs there. those are some of the most important sectors. retail up 41 little bit of a reopening story there. transportation warehousing up 4.4. i'm looking for leisure hospitality. education and health leisure and hospitality, up 355. that's good. there is a reopening story here. i want to give a pat on the back to the high frequency data the guys at ukg and home base who pointed us to the possibility of a higher than expected number here some of that reopening, looks like it happened earlier government number down 86,000.
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local government down 36 state government down 39 that's one of the concerns that's out there, joe, in terms of the stimulus bill and whether or not you give aid to keep this decline in employment happening. pretty good number here. i think the general consensus that we exaccelerate from here when it comes to job creation. >> very good, steve. jason, what i was referencing was larry somers even at this point thinks we're going too far. do you break with him on that in terms of stimulus? do you think we need to be more targeted where are you on that? and, you know, you became a professor at harvard sheryl sandberg is now at facebook does that ever gall you? no, anyway, go ahead >> so, you know, joe, look, we've seen a lot of strength in the economy in the last two months that strength is partly getting
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the virus under control but it's partly that we passed a pretty big fiscal stimulus back in december it gave family monies to spend but that money is running out. i think the most important is that we do something soon. we do something large. we continue the assistance that has supported what we just saw in the numbers today if i was designing it from scratch, i would design it differently. everything i'd always design differently. nothing congress ever does is perfect, but you look at inflation forecasts, none of them are well above what the fed is expecting the market isn't expecting inflation above the fed's target so i am not -- i don't think overheating is the primary scenario here. if we err on the side of 1.9 trillion, i think the economy will be just fine. in fact, i think it will be a spectacular year for the economy. >> sounds good i'll get back to you in a second i feel like i'm going clock wise
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again. i have to go to nela i apologize. we'll get to you quickly nothing personal >> so the question you'd like me to weigh in on is my love for larry somers or is there another question for me here >> you love larry somers too >> well, i'm waiting for the question >> this is better than you were expecting. why? >> yeah. yeah it is better because we're seeing -- what this report shows is an uptick in the retail and leisure and hospitality sector that was the sector i was most fearful of we are down 4 million jobs and in that sector so this is good news because leisure and hospitality is directly related to the pandemic. the improving health conditions, the boosting of the vaccine rollout and hopefully showing consumer confidence about going back to services again
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so i actually read this as very good news in terms of what it projects for the economic recovery going forward what is a bit dismaying is the decline we saw in the goods sector that had been the previous performer even with the january cold weather, it was a little surprising to us to see construction jobs in january fall we're still seeing some weakness there even though the housing market has been going gangbusters. so i think the punch line here is to look where the jobs are being created. we know from federal reserve analysis that was presented a couple weeks ago that the jobs are being created where high income people live not so much where the low income jobs are and this retail number is a good start saying maybe now we can see more low income jobs, low paying jobs that were lost, vulnerable jobs that were lost are coming back and hopefully
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we'll see some wage growth in tandem with the rehiring. >> throwing out the rule book, kate why was it better? >> so, look, this should be great news for the market, or at least for the overall economy. we're getting a number that's basically double what consensus was projecting for february. offsetting as i was mentioning before, all of the bad news that may have come or the slowdown in hiring as a result of the cold snap across much of the country. that should be great news. if you watch what the market is doing right now, what we see in the 10 year, what we see in terms of futures, we're once again getting the message from the market that they don't believe the fed is going to continue to maintain policy, regardless of what powell said yesterday, and what governor brainerd said this week, they don't believe the fed will maintain this policy if we get another round of fiscal stimulus and the vaccine rollout goes well as many are expecting, we're going to be in
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an environment where growth is meaningfully accelerating. we're going to be in a tough spot within the rotation within the equity market and in some cases a decline in the overall market as everyone tries to understand when the liftoff point is for the fed >> you know, rick, i have a spy cam so i have the entire zoom conference i'm watching the entire time and you've got something to say. i can see you. i'm watching i see you. you took issue with a few things >> it's unbelievable to me, first of all, when things are closed, they can't improve when they are open, they can improve. anything but opening up is going to lead to a strong economy. when i hear things like oh, the economy's improving. no, it's either mostly closed or reopening. that's important words matter in terms of fed's commitment to
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low rates is going to be a taper tantrum. it's in slow mission we're at 160 in tens up 20 basis points on the week and they can't prevent the negative feedback loops when they remove all of the stimulative policy they end up dragging their feet and not removing it. think about janet yellen, think about ben bernanke ultimately, ultimately i understand jason's comments and all those checks going out are important, whether they're saved or spent, they're important, but whether we pass this $1.9 trillion monster has a lot more to do with issues well outside of covid or not, we're still going to have a 7, 8, 9, 10% economy in 2021. if you don't pass that big super charged debt laidened package the difference would be not in the gdp numbers but in the stock market numbers, in the risk asset numbers which are already biting investors that were tantalized by this to begin
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with, if you call it the democratization of the markets, in my opinion many of those customers wouldn't have been able to open accounts 20 years ago when we used to do better due diligence. i understand things have changed but in the final analysis what's going on here is going to be like throwing a match on a gasoline fire and when they pass this we're going to be stockpiling gasoline for the next nine quarters to continually dump in. >> you love larry somers, like no, i don't really want to know. steve, i won't ask you that. >> i'm answering your question okay good i'm not going to ask you, steve, because i know where you stand what do you make of these numbers being so much better, steve? >> you know, joe, we began the week with a report on the vaccines showing up in the infection numbers. i'm going to go out on a limb here and saying we're seeing the vaccine showing up in the jobs numbers here when i look at the data, three
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out of every four jobs was created in the leisure and hospitality business food service and drink places up 285,000. accommodation up 35,000. retail up 41,000 we can have all these debates about the government rules about closing, the government rules about opening, at the end of the day i think it comes down to confidence of people to return when i see these numbers i see increasing confidence of consumers to return to some of these places, perhaps because of early signs of the vaccine is working and creating that confidence and businesses having the confidence to hire people in order to service those people that come to these service sector locations so i see good news here. we can debate was texas right, was texas wrong? people are going to do what they're going to do. the government should help them figure out what the right thing to do is we can have that debate. end of the day it's going to be confidence i see some confidence and i
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think it's going to get better from here, hopefully in a safe way. >> very good what, rick was that a -- see, i can see you. >> no, i agree steve, steve that was awesome i couldn't have said it better myself that was great that was great it is about vaccines and god bless america that we have the science and the knowledge and the, you know, can do, will-do altitude we don't want to know that i know i'll be canceled for saying there's something special about american ingenuity this vaccine being out and in arms this many months after the pandemic started, it gives me goose bumps honestly steve's right, this is the vaccine and it's the right way and we want to be safe, but i'm telling ya, these numbers are going to be big, that's why they want to hurry up andpass the stimulus i'm not saying we don't need certain things out there, but there's a lot more than covid demands in that bill and somebody's going to end up paying for it. i have a feeling it's going to be all our grandkids. >> kate, i get to see you --
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>> hold on kate, i get to see you, too. the expressions you were just making when rick was talking are expressions i get a lot from people and i'm not really sure what they mean what did yours mean? >> look, in a lot of -- i agree with rick that we're going to have an explosion in growth and actually our expectation is that growth is going to be significantly above where consensus is forecasting right now. the combination of fiscal stimulus combined with getting back to more normal activity is going to be positive the one place i don't see this actually played out or forecast at this point is in earnings you start to see big upward revisions after companies reported fourth quarter in 2020 but i don't think we're there yet. i think we're going to have record earnings this year and that's not fully reflected in both prices as well as in forecasts. so i'm pretty constructive on risk asset markets though i think i'm going to be nauseous
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today. >> was that steve or jason >> it's jason. >> sorry go ahead >> yeah, joe, i mean, the vaccines are absolutely amazing. in 2009 no one had covid and there was still a lot of empty restaurants out there so you need vaccines so people can go into the restaurants but people need money they need to be able to afford to do things we are still 12 million jobs short of the trend that we were on at the pace this month, that would take 2 1/2 years to get back the vaccines will increase that pace a lot, but i wouldn't take it for granted, that's why we definitely need a lot more support for this economy so that the vaccinated people can go on those, you know, summer vacations, get that leisure and hospitality number all the way back to where we wants it to be. 12 million jobs. >> joe, i want to follow up on
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that because -- i'll be quick. wall street lives in the future, what's going to happen main street lives in the here and now. for main street right now, jason's right. we're 12 million short the market can price in right now what's going to happen six months from now, that's what it's doing with higher yields. you saw the 10-year jump up not because of what happened today but what's going to happen down the road main street lives in the here and now. they're 12 million jobs short. wall street is living in the future of better jobs and growth >> and we've seen that throughout the cycle we've seen that, that wall street has pushed ahead into the future while main street is still dealing with the virus i will say that this stimulus, it's important not to throw out the baby with the bath water because we know that late last year stimulus was passed that had some targeted funds to small businesses, and small businesses are the engine of job creation it's important that their vulnerability is buffered during
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this downturn and i think one of the reasons you saw that strong growth in leisure and hospitality is there was some support late last year for smaller businesses in that sense when we're talking about main street, it's not just workers, it's businesses that are there to hire workers back and that's going to be an important part of the re-opening story, not just really high gdp growth we can do that in a jobless recovery we've seen that before but we also need firms that are still there and thriving to higher their workers back at the numbers needed to get back to full employment. >> okay. thank you to our jobs panel. i don't -- does everybody -- jason, we'll end where we began. does everybody know that sheryl was a big larry somers proto guy? i was looking at the career paths and trying to decide >> i can't imagine a worst job
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than being a top executive at facebook. >> yeah, exactly so under compensated in all of that stock that would be horrible horrible i'd much rather be up in people's republic of -- >> definitely. is the kennedy school of government in cambridge? the business school is in -- >> it is. >> -- across the river which isn't that much different anyway great area i lived in fresh pond. i played at the fresh pond golf course do you play golf >> i play there with my children >> no kidding. >> they like it. >> it's nice good see, look -- >> i'll host you, joe. >> we need to do more of this. we need to do more of this we really do we come together and don't we all need to come together? i think so kate, thank you. jason, nela, steve, rick steve's agreeing with rick rick's agreeing with steve beautiful. beautiful. all right. see ya later andrew. coming up when we come back,
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much more on the markets and what investors need to know heading into the final trading day of the week. stay tuned you're watchinghe t one and only "squawk box" right here on cnbc cutting edge made user friendly. in other words, we want a hybrid. and so do retailers. which is why they're going hybrid, with ibm. a hybrid cloud approach with watson ai helps manage supply chains while predicting demands with ease. from retail to healthcare, businesses are going with a smarter hybrid cloud, using the tools, platform and expertise of ibm. this is how you become the best! [music: “you're the best” by joe esposito] [music: “you're the best” by joe esposito] [triumphantly yells]
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welcome back to "squawk. we just got the february employment report showing an addition of 379,000 jobs last month. insight into the markets and what may happen now. we're joined by chief economist.
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good morning to you. we just saw the jobs numbers the question i'd ask you is does that change the dynamic at all it doesn't look like it's necessarily -- i mean, i -- where do you land? you saw the number >> sure. listen, i don't think these job numbers matter at all. it's better than expected. better than expected than worse than expected. but at the end of the day at this point as you well know everybody is looking forward, everybody is an epidemiologist following the vaccine trends and the more important issue for the economy is not this jobs report or next one but the willingness of consumers and businesses to re-open three months from now, two months from now, even a month from now that's the driving factor for markets at this point. >> here's the question i would ask. obviously everyone thinks we'll have a huge re-open, things will get so much better we had a fascinating conversation, i don't know if
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you heard with dr. scott gottlieb earlier he said going into november, fourth quarter of 2021, he said could get tougher again with covid. i'm curious whether the markets reflect that at all? >> no, i don't think so. listen, i've been super bullish on the concept of re-opening i think internally people are tired of me constantly harping on how underappreciated this is. the headlines are constantly vaccine trends are going slower than expected, europe is having all sorts of issues. i think those headlines that come from the people like dr. scott gottlieb are incredibly helpful. these are incredibly knowledgeable people but to me seem to consistently err on the side of caution and worry and i don't think the u.s. population is there right now clearly behaviors are bearing that out in certain parts of the country and increasingly in even
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states with larger lockdowns the there seems to be, i don't want to say covid fatigue but a willingness to say okay we have 21% of the population eva vaccinated, it's been a near and time to move on and the constant harping of negative outcomes has hidden from some people's view what i think is going to the to be an incredibly powerful report of recovery over the next two quarters >> real quick. most of the market owned tech for a long time. that was the way to play it. the do you want to own tech going into this fall or not at all? >> we don't do very much tech but i think what's happening is exactly what you would think would happen these are long duration assets they are incredibly interest rate sensitive if rates go back up which was halls should have between the base case then these stocks are going to get hit i think as you look out over the
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next six and 12 months leaving aside what solace specifically does, when you take into account how much of that rotation is sustainable and how much has been priced in which is a much longer conversation than what we're having now >> dan let's have you back so we can have that longer conversation great to see you >> sure. >> guys. >> when we come back, jim cramer's first take on the r ching day ahead and wild week fote stay tune, you're watching "squawk box" this this is cnbc because when it's decision time, you need decision tech. only from fidelity. ♪ ♪ (kids talking)
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let's get to cnbc headquarters, jim cramer joins us now i don't know, jim, hot number? higher rates market goes down but then again hot number, better for everybody. i like the reaction, i think initially there was some concern about it, i guess. >> i think that it certainly is early in the day we were watching yesterday when chairman powell spoke. it caught everybody looking the wrong way. i would have thought -- i don't know how to mount a rally here other than the fact we're so oversold we can get more oversold people say that this is what we were scared about is a strong number and now it's over with. next week we got a lot of supply but there's some arguments here, joe. we had a lot of stocks down 20%,
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30%. down 40% as they did during the last scare 2015-2016. it's hard to stay as negative if we have a bounce because i think it will draw people in i do think any real bounce, sell some because we saw what happened yesterday yesterday was just destruction of capital that was really much more than we're making out of it it was terrible. >> we know for sure that higher rates are going to need to be adjusted, digested in some fashion. >> right and the paradigm is we got to go lower and we go lower in stocks that some big fund managers like which are these stocks of companies that are all based on 2030 numbers they are based on terrific stories. and the terrific story stocks are what's getting killed. we talked about that the story stocks are just forbidden. just impossible to own it. the story stocks go up
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you got to trim them you just do. >> all right, jim. thank you. we got to run. we'll see you at 9:00 straight up thanks, joe. dominic chu is here. >> three stories for you here. some notable pre-market stories. costco on earnings shares are lower by 1.5%, 25,000 shares volume. they reported quarterly profits that missed estimates but revenues were better than expected sales growth also came in better and digital sales grew by 76%. costco was hurt bay rise in pandemic related costs including compensation so we'll watch those shares shares of norwegian cruise line holdings taking a hit down by 6% 1 million shares of volume announced it is selling additional 47 plus million shares of its own stock and
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plans to use the money to pay off a portion of the company's debt and use the remaining proceeds for general corporate proceeds then we'll end on shares of cisco systems. roughly 40,000 shares pre-market they upgrade that computer networking maker from new the traditional and raised the target price to 55 bucks so, becky, two reds and a green. back over to you >> dom, thanks have a greet weekend >> you too >> you're seeing that after that better anticipated jobs number that you'll be looking at the dow futures up by 212 points big reversal from when we start this morning when we were looking at red arrows across the board. s&p futures by 26 and nasdaq up by 43. guys, it's been a pretty wild
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ride of a week makes it interesting heading in to the weekend and wait until you see what happens the rest of today. >> indeed. nothing can happen over the weekend, right and we still got friday to worry about too. >> anyway, i will see you guys both back here next week and see all of you at home back here too. have a great weekend everybody "squawk on the street" begins right now. good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street". i'm quintanilla. good news. futures are up on that better than expected jobs number for february, 379,000. positive revisions bulls trying to look past the ten year and oil near 66 our road map begins with the market volatility. rates rocking higher futures rally as the jobs number comes in above expectations. >> plu


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