tv Squawk on the Street CNBC August 19, 2021 9:00am-11:00am EDT
good thursday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer at the new york stock exchange, david faber has the morning off. coming up that ugly close on wednesday and it is risk off again as oil, copper, iron ore drop on these global growth concerns goldman cuts its gdp forecast. got the ten-year below 1 1/4 futures deep in the red following the worst daily
performance in about a month the fed closing in, we think, on tapering meantime. robinhood shares down after its first earnings report as a public company, and in a few moments we'll talk exclusively with cisco's ceo chuck robbins about the quarter. i know you're watching materials for sure as we got crude almost back to 63. >> look, there's been a change in the permian last week the rig count was up, and it's up pretty significantly. we'd been very restrained in our pumping, but i think there's a lot of oil companies that just decided you know what, 70, turn it on. and now it's coming back down because of us. at the same time, chuck robbins says it too. who knows what the variant's going to do. the variant's going to slow things we know that travel and leisure can be cut back by this, but it's america we're pumping. we just make too much money, discipline being lost, and i think that that is the secret about what's going on other than a potential slowdown. >> tso the slowdown sort of as
you said this week flies in the face of the minutes we got yesterday where they explicitly talk about this year, talk about most participants. bam el today brings forward their call for a taper announcement why? >> it eludes me. i think it's -- when dr. toep l, on stephen colbert talking about the need for boosters, i don't feel like going out there and having a good time i think there's this medical problem, the medical problem public health problem, the fed guys don't know how to do it they don't know, and i think that they're unwilling to say, you know what? we really don't know because we don't have data, but that's what they'd be better served doing. all these different firms are saying pull it forward what happens if we see a dramatic slowdown because of the breakthroughs and i think that therefore it's worth waiting that's why i think prudence says let's see if there's more breakthroughs once we get the boosters going what's going to happen two months can we just give it two months
honestly, i find that the whole desire to front run the booster eludes me entirely makes no sense. >> jpm did say an announcement at jackson hole is unlikely, that that's a little too early maybe you get some kind of advance notice about a taper at the september meeting, but most are in november and december at this point. >> right, i also come back and say wait a second. the market at 3:30 europe was looking really down, 4:00 goes down 4:30 it goes down more as far as i'm concerned, if europe is in control, which i think it is versus the futures, they're not talking about tapering over there, and they don't know jackson hole from -- >> a hole in the wall. >> right, right. so then i want to revert to how the companies are doing, and we're going to be speaking to chuck robbins, but we've got to face facts that our companies -- almost everybody this quarter has been unbelievable, and this week has been incredibly strong. >> no doubt. we're going to get to all the
retailers. we've got raised guidance at woof, raised guidance at macy's. sh hood is going to be the one to think about. >> hood, you have to worry about whether hood's amc amc there was a price adjustment. >> over at citi. >> the people who -- if you see a lot of options activity in hood, in robinhood well above where the stock is now, that means they're back, the people who feel like that this is a stock that should be anointed. i saw that there was a lot of gamestop being sold yesterday. this is kind of an odd thing to be discussing, but people discuss head and shoulderi s i think they were gearing up to try to be able to keep robinhood in the air i don't know if they can given the fact when you peel back the onion to robinhood it seems like a dogecoin gateway the numbers are very surprising. it's very clear to me that this
is a company that has become a crypto company with some equities >> funny you say that because that's exactly what they talked about about on some of the communication behind the print take a listen. >> our customers are showing a lot of interest in crypto. in fact, this is the first quarter where we saw a larger share of new customers place their first trade in crypto rather than in equities. and our customers are asking for more from us we're investing heavily in our team we're working on rolling out new crypto features such as more coins, referring investments, ability to deposit and withdraw your crypto. >> wow that's with options revenue up 48. >> again, yeah, not what -- when i say not what i want, i'm saying versus say morgan stanley and e-trade. i don't think that james gorman has got a lot of people doing dog dogecoin, and the dogecoin numbers are really extraordinary.
then there was something that i found very quizzical having been in this business for 40 years. i date myself, they're talking about seasonality, that seasonality is going to be bad in september well, that's when you kill it in the business the seasonality is fabulous in september. i don't know what kind of calendar they're on. i like robinhood it's just to say we expect lower trading to be across the industry, to result in lower revenues, and considerably lower in new funded accounts that's just not true there are no seasonal headwinds. there's seasonal tailwinds see people come back from vacation. >> it's not buy in october or sell in october and go that st again i preface it by saying i like them. i was born at night, but not last night >> the cfo told our kay rooney that the idea of them as meme
name doesn't residenconate. they want to portray them as a growing evolving platform. do you see them like that or are they a play on gamification and memes? >> this is a quarter that they laid out a lot of positive things about what could happen, but it's not happening yet right now it does feel -- i mean, if you're basing your business on opening accounts that are dogecoin, that's not exactly opening your accounts with five-year treasuries with notes. that's also not opening accounts with mutual funds, not opening accounts with just companies and i think that they have to be careful. that's not as sustainable as you'd like now, i know that there are d dogecoin fans. it does seem a mockery of a sham. >> as it was intended to be originally, some argue. >> that's what they went for because it's low price the irony of the call is that somehow they think this is fine.
i mean, i was hoping that what they would do is say -- and a lot of our younger investors are buying interesting companies like the genomic companies they like the stocks that are -- say ford seems to have made a turn, i like that. instead it's dogecoin, and that's not the narrative that they were tracing before they are coming public. people are opening accounts and they're opening it with dogecoin the stock simply wouldn't be where it is. i found it regulatory and somewhat sad i was hoping it would not be this case. i do like the company so much. robinhood's customers demonstrated significant interest in cryptocurrencies, trading in crypto 60%. wow. >> yep and it's the whole narrative is something that you tried to talk to them about around the timing of the ipo take a listen to one more
soun soundbite. >> with what we've seen in retail investing over the past year is that a lot of these companies have been hit hard by the pandemic, right? and you see it started with some of the airlines, and then followed with some of the retailers, some movie chains and brick and mortar. >> right >> and you know, you have the institutions that are basically writing these companies off, and then retail investors coming in and keeping them up and supporting them. i don't know if people have understood the ramifications of what high retail participation in the markets means but i think fundamentally, it's a very good thing, and we're k excited to be a part of it. >> he's clearly referring to the meme play. >> the memes may keep it up. one of the most important things that i found, my daughter sends me this, by the way, the robinhood snacks news letter i call it the pepperidge farm goldfish news letter the 24.6 million unique people,
up 171% year-over-year the only reason i mention that is because it's as close to research as they have. they're adding more things they're getting more educational. they have to do these things they want to be a single source of truth, and i get that, but they may have to educate people that while you might start, maybe dogecoin is a gateway. it's almost like when my father used to say, do i smell marijuana, that's a gateway to heroin first of all, i didn't take marijuana. it's not like that i don't want dogecoin to be a gateway to heroin. i want done koij to be a gateway to blue chips. >> when we come back, we're going to have an exclusive with cisco's chuck robbins. stock looking to open down about 2% and don't miss the ceos of intel, macy's, take a look at the futures. we will get to cisco, nvidia, estee lauder, toyota cutting
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joining us now for a cnbc exclusive interview, cisco chairman and ceo chuck robbins hey, chuck, did you have a bad quarter? >> i think when you look at our product order rate being the highest growth in over a decade and the largest quarter in the history of the company and the team's just executed incredibly well we have -- you know, we had $4 billion in software revenue in the quarter we had 160 plus percent growth in our sales to the cloud providers, and there's even more but i mean, it was just a great quarter. our teams did a phenomenal job and i'm really proud of what we accomplished. >> i've always -- i followed your company since when mr. morgers was ceo. i always looked at orders. public sector up 22. commercial 41, service provider up 40. why is that down nine, can you tell me what's going on? so chuck, this seems very broad-based despite the fact that you had to say at the beginning that you do have the
delta variant and you're not sure exactly what's going to happen >> well, when you look at that order growth, jim, i think for years the service provider segment has been a headwind, and you know, five, six years ago we sold absolutely nothing to any of the cloud providers, the web scale players, and we worked hard for years we designed our own silicon. we built new products for the cisco 8,000 and franchises as they go through this 400 gig that part was up 168%. our cable business was up double-digit, and that web scale cloud business now comprises 30% of that segment, so it's meaningful the teams did great. enterprise is doing really well in light of hybrid work and hybrid cloud, and you know, this whole wi-fi 6 and rebuilding their infrastructure for the return to office so there's just a lot of great transitions that are happening that are in our favor right now. >> you know, chuck, i have
always asked you and your predecessor would you believe give us yearly guidance, and the rap was always it's an uncertain world. you gave yearly guidance last time. >> we did, jim if we go back several years, we started this transition to create a more predictable business model, more recuring revenue, more software and as of this quarter, we're on a $16 billion run rate in our software business and in q4, 81% of that came from subscriptions and sasse. what that fundamentally does is it gives us more ability and gives us the ability to look out over several quarters and have greater prediction of what our revenue is going to be this someone of the benefits of having scott haren he really understands how this works. we felt comfortable doing it and we thought it was time. >> not to be too much of a broken record. we've been chatting with you about supply challenges for most
of the year. in the past we talked about it lasting through the end of '21 thousand you're talking about the first half of fiscal and maybe the second half. how long are we going to keep extending this >> first of all, good morning, carl, and it's good to talk to to you too this is a moving target, the whole supply chain situation everybody who's come on the show, everyone who's delivered earnings whether you're an auto manufacturer or a high-tech company has talked about these challenges and you know, the thing for us that's important is that our supply chain organization has been rated number one in the world two years in a row, so you can assume they are doing everything they can and they're world class, but we do believe it's going to be with us through, you know, the end of our first half of the year, which is january, and we did say that it could actually, you know, move into the second half of the year, and there's just -- we're just going to have to wait and see how things go. we're hopieful that that improves
the fact that we're able to give fiscal year guidance in the midst of a delta variant and supply chain gives you a sense of how confident we are in the business. >> the guidance thing is big as jim said, and it does point to the sweet spot you're in, and i wonder, you know, one of the most bullish things we've been hearing about corporates is this idea that productivity is going to get us through at least the next few years it's going to be one of the saving graces for corporate america. i've got to imagine that is a big part of the tailwind that you're seeing right now. >> well, i think everyone was surprised at how productive we were during this pandemic, even though there was a lot of stress in the system, and the technology held up, and i think you have ceos and cxos around the world, government leaders around the world who came to realize the true power of the technology and now as we return to office, as we prepare for hybrid work, you know, everyone is investing in order to be prepared and to gain competitive advantage, and i think what we've seen over the last couple of months is with
the delta variant, every leader now is saying, wait a minute, not only do i have to prepare for return to office i have to prepare for a fully adaptable and resilient situation going forward because if we have another variant nine months from now, i may have half my workers going home again. i need to be able to support that in a very robust way. and no one wants to be caught with out of date infrastructure, out of date technology if that happens again. >> chuck, you do a lot of things you made an acquisition for a company that is not being talked about enough on your call or anywhere else. the slido. this makes webex to be much more robust than zoom so let's say we had a gigantic audience participation at cisco, and we decided that your sport coat is just too crazy with slido, could we not have an ongoing discussion among hundreds of people, because i think this product is something
that you stole and it's going to be fantastic for you. >> i think it's great. what i would ask everybody out there to do is to take a look at the webex suite that we've put together i think that, you know, in talking to my of the analysts out there, they've said that, you know, during the pandemic everybody used whatever technology they could, but as you go forward, you should be looking at an architectural decision for hybrid work this is not about meetings and conferencing it really is about the hybrid experience slido is one great example we could poll the audience to see whether the braves or the phillies are going to win. we could have interesting polls like that in addition to my sport coat. >> that's what i love about it it is so robust. as you become more of a software company you start talking about rpo, which is the remaining performance obligation you got 30 billion that's basically money in the bank we learned that when salesforce had to do it when i listen to your analysts,
let's stick with the atlanta falcons analog they hear rpo, i think they think run pass option. they don't seem to understand what's happening with your company. >> rpo is emerging as one of the most telling signs of a successful software transition the fact that we crossed 30 billion for the first time, that is revenue we will be recognizing over the next few years and about half of that will be recognized in the near-term. i think back to our guidance last quarter, jim, and i'll tell you that with the software transition we were able to guide 6 to 8% for q4, and we went back and looked at the business model from five, six years ago and had we still been operating in the business model, our revenue guidance would have been significantly lower. the impact is showing up, and we're going to keep doing what we're doing, and we think we're going to be great over the next few years. >> i'm going to congratulate you chuck. what i'm looking for is orders
looking for software, recurring revenue, fantastic, and i think that a lot of things are going right. last time the stock went down too, and it turned out to be one of the best buying opportunities. i think that will happen again chuck robbins, thank you so much for coming on "squawk on the street." >> thanks, jim, thanks carl. >> good to see you, chuck. from chuck to another big interview in the next hour, don't miss an exclusive with intel's pat gelsinger, we'll talk about chip investment and a bunch of other things facing the industry and the country in the meantime, futures still seiounrwdaas we get athursy ssn deay and "squawk on the street" continues in a moment. all around you... where you learn, work, and fly... we help make them healthier. we are the people of abm. for more than 100 years, we've been a leader in making spaces cleaner, from the things you touch to the air you breathe. today, more than 100,000 of us are innovating to ensure spaces are more efficient, healthier and safer.
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time for cramer's mad dash countdown to the opening bell. people take their cue from the futures, before they take their cue from the fundamentals. 11 to 13%. estee lauder's makeup but it's also clear skin. clear skin doing better than makeup new forecast of 13 plus 16%, joining apple, starbucks and nike as the companies that are unstoppable when it comes to china. stock was up 4, now it's coming in in part because people are saying you know what, i'm going to smack the head of anything that's up, whether it be macy's, kohl's or estee lauder this quarter is much better than expected even two days ago, the excellent
ceo would guide things down. take it as a grain of salt that estee lauder today may not do that well, but this is a much better quarter than i thought. >> 10% above pre-pandemic. the margins there are super fat. it's amazing they did it. >> i remember he said do you know judy free, i said it always looks like a bargain i spend a lot of money they have a lot of products that are actually quite expensive but are loved. and when you get them for people, people get excited now sephora, by the way, is doing very well for kohl's so makeup there is good, but this is clear skin and remember, when you wear a mask, you need clearer skin, as we all know and we all try to pretend that we don't. >> peroxide, it's a problem. >> it is problem >> the opening plays are obviously getting a lot of attention. msg, of course madison square
garden disney charging an extra fee if you want to jump the line. >> i thought that disney back at 172, you get a lot of people that are saying, wait a second, maybe dr. gottlieb's ahead of him saying the peak. do you really think -- if you don't think that covid is going to ever be under control, even with boosters, sure, i could see selling disney at 170. if you think that there's a chance and you just got this pass to get to the front of the line, they're doing a lot of things i don't know if this is the great thing to throw away. i don't think this is your first choice to sell. >> let's take a look, the cnbc realtime exchange. the big board, exchange traded concepts, dune acquisition corp. a blank check company. let's dive into nvidia, 104 beats 101, and revenue up 68 is a slight beat. >> nvidia was a remarkable quarter, and when i went over it with them, one of the things that's incredible is that people still focus on crypto. this is a play on gaming, but
revolutionary gaming play on data center, but at the end, the conference call it's about metaverse, as we heard from zuckerberg. but i call him da vinci for a reason and i named my dog nvidia for a reason because of jensen he's talking about creating your own universe and you could find yourself in a factory. you could find yourself in a stadium. you can find yourself in an airport. you can find yourself talking with people. you can even program yourself. i was talking to them about the idea, could i program myself and watch san do a c scape, sure, why not? there isn't anything that you can't do and the final line here is that jensen says the omniverse or the metaverse is going to be a new economy that is larger than our current economy. he's talking about a world that doesn't exist that's going to be bigger than our current world.
>> built from scratch, yes. >> a lot of people listen to him, and i'm listening and i'm realizing you know what? the world as i know it is not the world that jensen who has worked for ten years on that sees it. we should envision a world that we walk into a room, and there's everybody we want to be there, and they all say how great you are and you're thinner. >> they did say that the arm approval is taking longer than they thought. >> yeah. if you ask for the bummer about this thing, it would be that we still don't hear the magic bullet it reminds me in analog devices yesterday, they're trying to close a deal and they can't or boeing, by the way, with cowen saying listen, chinese hate us. >> cowen reiterates what you're seeing is everything's taking longer the ceo of arm did a very impassioned speech he gave about why -- and tweets about why you
have to prove this because we're going to lose otherwise. and nvidia has every desire to put as many engineers in the uk as possible, but do they really need it? it would be great if they got it they can do well without it. i urge people to just -- if you can't get through the whole nvidia conference call, which would be strange because jensen's so entertaining just go through the last four paragraphs and read about what the world's going to be like because i read -- i remember when i read robin son caruso, really great book, a great lookback when you read this transcript, it's a great look forward, ask i'm like thinking i can't -- it's very hard to get your arms around it's like being on mars when it's all civilized and saying what was i thinking, what was i doing on earth. >> it is fascinating rosenblatt does go 250 to 300
hon nvidia somebody said nvidia is kind of like target where it wasn't the blowout you normally associate with a quarter, but it's so loved it's not going to get smacked. >> it can't. nvidia is the key to so many different companies. for instance, they're not disturbed about autonomous they're working with mercedes benz, very good partner. i asked them, i would love to get a benz, yeah, it's very hard to really criticize a company that is so far ahead of everybody else, and by the way, gaming which a lot of people feel is peaking because it's indoor versus outdoor, the numbers for gaming worldwide are so extraordinary that we have to accept the fact that it's one of the great secular trends it's not cyclical, it is a secular trend and there's a lot of good evidence in the nvidia conference call. >> gaming revenue up 85% >> just incredible
>> macy's was a beat and a raise. they share buyback, reinstate the dividend are we talking about department stores again >> yes, we have to and i think that one of the things -- got this polaris strategy, a lot of people doubted it it kicked in with force this quarter. a lot of what he's doing, and i know the comparable sales up 61%, we need it against the 2019, a nice one, plus 5.8%. that's unusual and also the fact that he talks about the pandemic impacting a lot of categories. what i liked the most about it was that they're bringing in new customers. one of the things i've always talked to jeff ka gennette about, macy's, is that like my mom's store? my mom worked at gimble's. 41% of new customers came through the digital channel. it's working for jeff gennette,
it's working and those of us who follow his career are thrill that had this happened debt paid down bs d, dividend b. jeff, you got him. >> you're going to stick around f for him. >> a lot of sticking around. i like jeff very much. you pay down debt, everything's going to be good he's paying down debt. the tstock is more muted than i should be. people decided the market's going lower. when oil is going up, we hated that now oil is going down. we hate that. >> we hate everything. >> yes, we're haters, high haters. >> guilty. very guilty. >> but we were very funny with chuck. did chuck come back? oh, yeah, run pass option. he liked that one, the rpm speaking of department stores, reports that amazon is considering large retail locations 30,000 square feet
loca locations department stores. >> the stock's down 11% and their solution is brick and mo mortar i don't want that. are they tone deaf we don't want more brick and mortar, we want more amazon. >> negative again for the year. >> we're going back to faang being apple. we're going back to 1a faang and i put the second a in faang, i can take it out. >> you're talking alphabet >> oh, jeez, did you hear dan niles talk about how the -- about how alphabet's the cheapest basically it's ever been that is a very interesting call because they have tremendous growth i know that it is fun to trash amazon right now, and we all -- i think -- i'm waiting for t the -- when they say remember when bezos was ceo i think chassis is amazing people say no, we're not because
of the variant we're staying in more than ever. let's say we're still using amazon and the brick and mortar is a side show. >> 4 gym is lowest since may they're going to close kansas city because they can't get chips out of malaysia. toyota's going to cut september production by 40%. >> it's funny, ford is so much more linked to taiwan semi than malaysia malaysia is much more linked to gm malaysia, of course these are covid. i don't know if it's breakthrough i urge people not to sell ford there's so many things that are going good at ford nincluding al new models and a decision to no longer lose money versus the chip shortage. the chip shortage is real. i'm not denying that what you're going to do is everyone's going to be equally held down by the chip shortage and i think ford's doing better than all the others because of
the new models i'm waiting for my maverick, waiting, waiting, waiting, i do think this is new ford in terms of the way it's being financial and in how quickly it's introducing new products people say that, look, i like farley too much. >> he's been very, very good to you. >> farley's been very good and i think of the ones you just saw on the board, go buy ford. >> you see toyota down three, phil lebeau has more on it for us. >> hey, carl, and an announcement coming from toyota north america saying they will be cutting their production in august between 60 and 90,000 vehicles we don't know the exact percentage but that's a huge cut for production here in august in north america. toyota motor corporation, tmc out of japan will be cutting production about 40% according to records in ceseptember, so wt
you're seeing is because of the global chip shortage, it's finally catching up with toyota. remember, early on there were a number of stories written about the fact that following the fukushima earthquake and tsunami, there was a new mandate in japanese business that you have to have enough inventory in case something like that would ever happen again, and so they had enough chips in their inventory to weather the storm much better than their competitors, whether it be general motors, ford, volkswagen, you name the company around the world well, it appears that it's finally catching up. you can only use your inventory for so long, guys, before the tight supply of chips worldwide finally catches up and remember, we've had these issues in asia with some of the chip factories because of covid-19, has been hurting their production over there, whether or not that's led to toyota cutting its production here in north america as well as around the world, i don't know. but at this point, guys, you're seeing toyota now also being impacted because of the global chip shortage. guys, back to you. >> phil, really quick on the ford news, as we were saying earlier, this kansas city f-150, are you bracing for a wave of
announcements of plants being closed for a couple of weeks at least. >> i'm not bracing for it. we've seen this on a regular basis. not just from ford but all of the automakers, closed for a week back up to production closed for two weeks, partial production look, it's been across the board. it's been with every automaker so you can't look at ford and say here we go they're more impacted than somebody else. you pick them. they've gone through this where they have had to bring down a plant this a particular location or with a particular model for a week or two weeks, and then they bring it back up >> phil, thanks, we'll stay on top of it with your help our phil lebeau talking some toyota and ford today. >> if everybody's being heard equally, don't we start looking at one that's worth buying, and i have like ford i'm going to reiterate i like ford because i think that ford that has a better ship set coming remember, this is about full-featured chips. let's just say why this is happening. nvidia does not make full
feature chips. they make the most complex cars, amd, no. why? because that's not where the profit is. the full featured is not profitable that much, so the companies that are big semis stayed away from this one area there's not a lot of money to be made in a $2, $3 chip. that's what holding people back. if everybody's held backs who's got the best models, who's going to be the most disciplined the reason i want that is because the car market is incredibly hot >> you can barely get one. >> yes >> and you know, a hybrid model, you listen to chuck, and chuck did say a shortage could last next year. all you think about chuck robbins is i need a car to get around i'm at home, i thought i'd take public trans -- >> speaking of being at home and the degree to which you can work in the office remotely from home, facebook's allover it today, shares down 1%, but zuckerberg was on cbs, talked
about what they're calling horizon work rooms gym, ar, augmented reality in which your avatar is at a desk with your co-worker, and that's how you operate in the metaverse. >> i usually do not want to criticize, i'll leave that to the 317 other million people in the country. his crude drawings differ very much from what jensen huang at nvidia is talking about, which is exact life like situations. the avatar is you, that's what you want you don't want these silly drawings maybe he's got that already, looks like the simpsons. yeah, no, look, roth co, i'm talking about rembrandt. what is so great about jensen is he'll put up storm troopers from star wars and there's two pictures which one's the real and which one's fake, you can't tell, and what is because jensen knows shading. this is man is an architect, but
he also knows chair secure roe look at the shading. you can't tell zuckerberg, he let us sit down, apple's talked about in the conference, only jensen is allowed to mention the word apple. but the life like nature of you in the stadium watching the eagles crush the falcons it's better than the actual. you can't get covid if you're in there. >> whether it's a eagles, whether it's courtside at a game or this work rooms concept, you think it's the future to some degree >> absolutely. there's no doubt about it. jensen told me two years ago, he said, five years from now this is what you're going to be looking at i said how come you know he goes how come you don't know? so i can't see around the corner but jensen who by the way, figured out a way to grow grass on the sides of his wall you go to his hbeadquarters and
there's grass everywhere he gave me dog a lifetime pass to be able to go in. immediately when i got to nvidia, even before i got a dog collar, got his card to get in to nvidia headquarters where the grass is on the -- it's too hard can you imagine, isalieri, we're all salieri to his moezart. >> the king of the mundane, the king of the mediocre we're obviously much better than futures indicated but we're watching the vix above 22. hey, bob. >> weak open, but the low print was right at the open. the vix is not seasonally unusual. i'll show you that in a minute here the good news is it's the cyclical sectors that are weak right now, and that often happens in august, and we've got concerns on covid. this makes some sense here
if you look at what's moving things here, the most important thing is the reduced growth expectations around the delta variant, reduced vaccine effectiveness, we saw yon at goldman reducing his numbers for gdp that implies potentially lower earnings estimates that's the most important thing that's happened. the timing of the fed tapering, i think they've been pretty good communicating that and also remember it's august. i'll show you why that's a factor if you look at the sectors that are moving, it's the cyclicals you see energy and materials on the weak side. tech is down defensive names, utilities, health care, and consumer staples are holding up better. this is very typical of what we see for the month. watch for correlations picking up look what's going on this week in terms of the sectors. it's the cyclicals that are weakened again this makes some sense, energy
and materials, industrials are the weakest group, tech is down, but not as much, and defensive groups like health care and utilities and consumer staples are doing better in other words, more defensive tone cyclicals are weaker reopening stuff is weaker. that makes sense given the concerns about the delta variant that's out there the other thing that makes some -- and be careful, if this correlation changes, that's going to be a problem. if suddenly you started seeing a lot of selling in tech and health care, this could go from a 2 or 3% correction to a 5 or 6% correction quickly. the other thing, i know nobody wants to hear it, in august you get very low volume and strange volatility spikes. it always happens mid-august to mid-october, low volume, and then all of a sudden things kind of blow up you typically have weakness in cyclicals like energy and materials and technology is somewhere in the middle. a lot of people are concerned about the vix. carl mentioned the vix what's weird is what we've been
seeing the there's been no 1% days, there's been a few, but very few this year the vix is suddenly spiking up a little bit it was 24 earlier and everybody said oh, my heavens but it was 25 this point last year. it always spikes up at least once or twice. between middle of august, middle of october you usually get one or two spikes. last time it was 41 in october of 2020. 25 in august in 2019 it was 25. in 2018, 28. 2017 it was only at 17 you get the idea this happens fairly often for mid-summer spikes. we have an unusual situation with covid, bear in mind the seasonality factor doesn't matter if you don't know where to go, people are wandering around what do we do everybody's looking at technical. the 50-day moving average is 43.58. that's the purple line there, and pretty good support there. that's actually not a bad chart
in you're a technician, you would pay a lot of attention, 43.48. guys, we'll keep a close eye on that number. >> fascinating work on the vix there. thank you, bob pisani. don't miss our interview with ark invest's cathie wood at 11:30 a.m. eastern time. first, the bond report, take a look at howtreasuries are faring this morning. ten-year settling right just below 1 1/4, not really moved around a whole lot, even after philly fed was the lowest print of the year and claims 348 k is a new post-covid low we're back in a moment (vo) at t-mobile for business, unconventional thinking means we see things differently,
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quarter. macy's though started pretty strong, gaining strength here, almost back to 20, up 10% as they raise their guidance, reinstate the dividend we will talk to jeff gidet in a minute don't go waichlt i feel like they might have a better finance system than we do. workday. how do they make better decisions faster? awayyou're on mute. workday. hello! hey, rob, there he is. workday. the finance, hr and planning system f. a changing world. all the things, all around you... where you learn, work, and fly...
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time for "stop trading" with jim. >> incredible earnings per share, kohl's. i have to tell you they have the right merchandise. they are getting out the right merchandise, rolling out sephora, the steal from jcpenney it's funny to hear amazon. they should buy kohl's i mean, maybe kohl's doesn't want to sell that's why i would auto buy it. >> we were here at this desk the day they bought whole foods, one the shows i will never forget. it broke right at 9:00. >> honestly, my jaw dropped. walter rob, a great foodie it makes sense they have that relationship. it is crazy for amazon to start building they should just go buy kohl's. >> session highs here in the first few moments, jim, i wonder whether or not you think -- >> day three has typically been the turn day and i have got to tell you, when i watch your -- i don't know if people understand this it's the oldest bank in the
world. i went to see it in sienna it's gorgeous. also a fortress, and it's going to be taken over a lot of people realize the banking system is terrible in europe ours is terrific when i tried to do business wit them, what's a coverage? yeah tune in. fdic over there is not the same as ours. >> jim is going to stick around. two big interviews to come stay tuned for that. we barely for a moment had the worst week on the s&p in six atevreacabe we a bk ov th lel don't go away.
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all in one app. that's how you get your money right with sofi. rick santelli here expecting important breaking news, july lead on leading economic indicators. we are expecting a number up 0.7. every number this year has been a positive number and it continues up 0.9 of 1%, a beat of a couple of tenths and it is the best level since may june was 0.7 i don't see a revision yet even though this may have lots of statistics in the rearview
mirror we have already seen, it is quite important to have the string going do remember that right at the beginning of covid we hit the extremes, and the extremes go back to the late 1950s in may we had a 3.1% high that was last year, to give you the high-water mark, and, of course, we continue to watch yields pay particularly close attention in tens to 1.21%, the low yield every day week carl, back to you. >> thank you very much rick santelli. good thursday morning, everyone welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. i'm carl quintanilla with morgan brennan and jim cramer with us for a mu moments david faber has the morning off. market looked tenuous at the open worrisome news on covid, china close to session highs here. >> a lot to chew on. 30 minutes into the trading session. here are three of the big movers today. nvidia with net profit quadrupling, forecasting better
than expected current quarter revenue. macy's shares jumping after they reported a big beat, too the company raising full-year guidance, reinstating the dividend, a $500 million share buyback. those shares up 11%. we are going to speak with mayesies ceo jeff general set later and robinhood revenue doubling last quarter, but the stock following after they warned of a retail trading slowdown down 7%. for more on that quarter let's get to kate rooney hi, kate. >> hey, robinhood investors are focused this morning on that slowdown in retail trading that the company warned about and reiterated in yesterday's report revenue more than doubling in the quarter, robinhood reported a loss that goes back to that big debt raise back in january crypto though really stealing the show in the quarter. it drove that higher revenue number as investors moved from stocks to digital currencies crypto now accounts for more
than half of transaction-based revenue. that was up from 17% in the first quarter. guys, more than 60% of that came from dogecoin trades alone i spoke to robinhood's cfo in an exclusive interview after earnings about that changing investor appetite. >> what you saw was a shift in interest of our customers towards crypto in q2 in the first quarter of the year equities was strong and in q2 we saw that strength in crypto. i would say that we are really wanting to about be there for customers no matter where their interest is and we will see variability in the overall revenue mix we have over time. >> regulation has been top of mind for a lot of robinhood investors. war knack does not expect the s.e.c. to ban payment for order flow but the company as he put it could easily operate and expand abroad without it. >> it's really quite small on a
trade basis when you look at that and because of that it's not a revenue source that would be necessarily all that difficult to replace so there is a couple of ways to go about it. >> he says rodriguebinhood is na meme stock they don't plan on secondary capital races to take advantage of the recent share prices and robinhood's balance sheet is in good shape. he says the company could withstand another shock like they saw around gamestop back in january. back to you guys [ inaudible ]. >> no volume it's the place young people go that's undoubtedly the case. all right. intel, which we know, is in a war against amd and a bunch of other companies. they are announcing they are unveil a shift in the data center arc tengture, one they
call the biggest in a generation let's find out more about this let's bring in an exclusive intel ceo pat gelsinger. you are making bold claims tinte is revolutionizing the product line what may it mean for consumers and the enterprise >> thank you a pleasure to be with you. we made five major announcements today. we are introducing a new consumer and pc architecture, al alder lake, which using big and little cores for peak performance and power efficiency also a major new data center architecture, sapphire rapids as i have one to show you here based or four tiles, 56 cores and using our advanced packaging, and never seen before a.i. performance on a cpu. we also introduced our graphics architecture where we are moving into the discrete graphics business we announced our brand, intel
arc. we also released our high-end performance capabilities for high-performance computing, a beast of a machine that's able to deliver the highest ever recorded a.i. and hpc benchmarks in lhistory. our friends across the street there at nvidia, you know, we are now posting the best numbers ever, and we introduced the major new networking architecture, the ipu, as well, that mount evans that we're doing in collaboration with one of the big cloud guys. so major announcements for the biggest architecture day we have had in a decade. >> okay. when i listen, i am conscious of the fact that you spent a lot of time in washington really trying to figure out exactly how we can get back to a leadership position in foundries, intel always the best in terms of making its own is this something that you can do at your own foundries or something you have to outsource? and if you have to, do you have
to wait in line? >> what we have done, as we announced in march, id m2.0. with that we say we are going to build most of our products on our own package and process technologies, but we are also going to use foundries and we are also going to become a foundry. with that as we show with sapphire rapids, this is on intel and we are using our factories for these. but also the pont vecchio, or high end graphics for tsmc also taking advantage of tsmc in other areas of the product line as well as some of the other foundries and we are also opening ourselves up to be a foundry for the industry this has been the center of, you know, a lot of interest. we announced that qualcomm and amazon are some of our early customers there, and as you have seen with u.s. government efforts around the chip sector we will build a lot of those fact recapacities on u.s. soil with u.s. engineering and ip to
help establish what i call more globally balanced and resilient supply chain it is a strategy we are uniquely positioned to bring forward to the industry and bring a lot more of that back on to american soil. >> because of time on semi and what's going on with china one more question i have to be sure about you mentioned nvidia founder of intel, one of the founders, said that it no longer works and what really matters are the cards that nvidia has, that they are faster, stronger, much more powerful what do you say to that idea? >> we as a company are committed to exhausting the periodic table and keeping moore's law alive and well i have to say, hey, until every aspect of the periodic table has been pursued and considered, moore's law ain't dead what we're seeing in the
announcements that we have made around our new process technologies, we are moving into what we call the ainge strom era, jim, with the intel 20-a and 18-a process technologies announcements. moore's law is alive and well and we are the company that is going to keep it alive and well for decades into the future and the roadmap we have laid out we feel very confident we are going to continue through this decade and into the next by innovations in silicon and finding new physical properties and new ways to print line smaller and faster and at lower power yeah, architecture is important. design is important. but process and packaging technology some of the major advancements in 3d packaging that we are showing off with products like sapphire rapids i showed today, wow, these are going to keep us alive and well not just at the 2 d level, but the 3d level moore's law alive and well intel is the company that will keep making that happen. >> the journal is running some
of your comments about m&a that you see more m&a in chip reduction, that you would be a consolidator, that you said, quote, i'm a willing buyer can you talk about your appetite >> as we think about it, over the last decade what you have seen, carl, is that the industry has become very expensive. and if you go to basic economic nearly and, you know, for our mba class, industries that are very ex pens i have in r&d, high in intellectual property content, high capital cost will be consolidating industries. as one. >> three companies that are able to make investments at this level and have the r&d and innovation capacity to do it, the industry will continue to consolidate. ten years ago, 12 companies could be leadi -- build leading edge process technologies. today there are three. that will drive continued consolidation and we will be one of the consolidators as we look
to the future. >> pat, i want to go back to production for a minute. in terms of this slew of ambitious new products you have unveiled today, what is that production ramp looking like how quickly will they be able to reach the end users? i ask that in part because i know intel has had issues production even before covid. >> yeah, we are ramping production very rapidly. we have seen this unspprecedent jump up in semiconductor demand globally the industry, half a trillion dollars industry was sort of growing at 5 to 6% and then covid, growing at 20%, you know, just in a short period of time and supply chains getting disrupted. big gaps overall for semiconductor demand as i have said, we think it's still '23 we start to see supply/demand balance. we are just pouring ourself into building our factories, driving yield and improvements so everything that we have talked about, some of the products like the client products that we have announced will start ramping this year,
but everything that we talked about today is going to ramp be it high-volume production next year we are working very closely with our customers. i was just on the phone with one of the largest ones this week and he says, wow, pat, in the six months since you have been back, a lot of progress and meeting our supply and finding ways to navigate through this global semiconductor shortage. so we are wrorking hard. i am very proud of our factory teams for the work they are doing as we close these gaps but it is a challenging time and it will remain a challenging time for every aspect of the semi industry for at least a year and a half yet. >> all right patrick, i don't want to be too dispew tishstatious, but a and b had that great quarter your quarter was not a great quarter and your stock went down are you poking a finger in the eye of lisa su by talking about the poent vecchio. she is blonde. she does not have florence
are you saying, you know what? not only are we going to come become and take leadership, but we are saying lesu, we have florence, look out, we are going to block you >> jim, we believe that competition good for customers, good for the industry, and as you have heard me say, i am committed to deliver the best product in every category we participate in we are going to do that using the best technologies, with the best design and the best architecture we have great respect for the progress that lisa and jensen have done. but intel is back. and we are going to be very aggressive in our competitive offerings. the technologies that we have announced today are very compelling they are the industry-leading benchmark products we believe we have the capacity to ramp them aggressively and we are just getting started to deliver what is old is new again, intel is back, and we are going to be delivering the best products on the planet for our
customers who have learned to rely on us as that, you know, trustworthy, that high-quality at volume supplier yeah, we're going to do well in the future and i am anxious to see how this plays out we had a good quarter as we beat and raised guidance. the market didn't respond as well, jim. but, hey, we are committed to having great financial returns even more importantly, the best products on the planet >> i think, patrick, you have every right to claim you are going to do that we are seeing amd and nvidia win business this is not your fault there was a legacy period before you got there. you are turning around the battleship rather fast i got to admit but your predecessors were stuck at a ten nanometer, so to speak. that was not your fault. manufacturing issues, have you fixed those issues >> yeah, we feel very good and we had update on this a month ago, jim, where we laid
out intel 7, a 4, 3, move to the ainge strom era with intel 20-a and 18-a i review these weekly, defect densities and improvement in manufacturing and i feel very confident we have stolved the problems the team is fired up they are back to win their honor. this is a team that led semiconductor innovations for over two decades and they are back to demonstrate their honor. and i am very, very proud of the progress that we have made in the short period of time yeah, we're back >> all right thank you, patrick pat gelsinger. you are a fiery pat gelsinger. great advocate for inl tell and the semiconductor industry in our country which we thank you for and thank you for coming on the show. >> great interview, jim. what do you got tonight? >> five serve. when you do fintech, not everything is new. an established company, made a fortune on fds and i have to get to the bottom of this with the cars.
everyone is selling ford and gm. lithia one of the largest car dealers in the country let's find out what is going on. not just because my daughter lived a block away from where brian lived. >> thank you see you tonight. >> terrific. >> of p.6:00 p.m. "mad money." well, as we head to a quick break, a look at the roadmap for the rest of the hour facebook wanting to bring vr to the workplace. plus, as the delta variant continues to spread, the travel sector is feeling the pain. >> got an exclusive with the ceo of macy's coming up on the heels of their blowout quarter interesting comments about the difference between rural and urban storrs the s&p is greenndheo u a t dyo is 30 points away. the s&p is green and the do you is 30 points away. t. the s&p is green and the do you is 30 points away. o. the s&p is green and the do you is 30 points away. r. the s&p is green and the do you is 30 points away. e. the s&p is green and the do you is 30 points away. s. the s&p is green and the do you is 30 points away.
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sweet, i get that too and mine has 5g included. that's cool, but ours save us serious clam-aroonies. relax people, my wireless is crushing it. that's because you all have xfinity mobile with your internet. it's wireless so good, it keeps one upping itself. facebook is taking action against the disinformation dozen by launching a widely viewed content report comes following the white house pressure last month. >> this is what ceo mark zuckerberg had to say on cbs about the scrutiny the company's faced. >> facebook is taking, i think it's been an unprecedented effort to help encourage people to get vaccinated, to promote authoritative information about covid and the vaccines and to fight and take down misinformation so millions of people have tay taken their first step to
getting a vaccine through a vaccine finder tool we have built. at the top of facebook and instagram we have put over the last year basically links to this coronavirus information hub sharing authoritative information from government officials at well as trusted community leaders. billions of people have visited it we have taken town 18 million pieces of misinformation >> facebook also debuting a vr remote work app called horizons work rooms which it calls the next step into the met a verse the comments from zuckerberg on both fronts, brent, good to see you. >> good morning. >> i'm curious to know what you think of the latter first, the workroom app and whether or not -- i mean, this evolution of sfwluk talking about the meta verse was a structural play as moved from the earnings call to broadcast television how important is this? >> it's the next world that they're building beyond the social side.
mark spent a lot of time on the last earnings call explaining it many investors are concern there is going to be a mayega investmt wave to power this as he said, it's going to be a five to ten-year journey they are going to partner with other companies like nvidia and some of the gaming companies out there. so we think it's going to be a collective effort. but we think it's really exciting when you think about the ability to go into a different world and experience an event or even at work be able to come into this in a different way. in many ways, when he talks about the meta verse, many people think about snap. i think that snap has tun a better job of building that out. so if you looked at a vendor that's probably further ahead than facebook, it's snap and you can follow, you know, the teenagers around to look at them in the map and their ability to interact with their avatars, understand what shop is showing what, you know, what
type of bargain that they can walk in. we think is exciting it's long-term it's not going to happen overnight. it's going to be a collection of different technology companies that will power the meta verse. >> all of that noted, brent, i realize this is going to take a couple of yeart, this first step to strike into work, are people and companies going to be looking to do that on facebook >> i don't personally believe you will see our firm jump into that right away. i think we are so immersed in zoom and microsoft teams as the collaboration way. so the way that jeffreys, we have 4,000 employees, we have been living on zoom and in that world, living in a live world with our clients so i think ultimately over time it can be really interesting in a sense that if you are in fashion and you want to present a fashion line, can you go into the meta verse and create this fashion line could we effectively go in and
do a presentation inside of this world for stock recommendations to help clients out? certainly could. do i see us do that short-term probably not we are doing that in zoom. we are doing live events microsoft teams, you know, we're doing that today in the real world in a real environment. and so this -- i'm on zoom right now, right so if you think about it, i think ultimately companies are probably going to choose that route for the first route. certainly wouldn't rule this out. but i think this ben is going to take some time i think there is more consumer-related apps that are exciting, that i'm excited by, rather than enterprise apps at this point >> i mean, other than snap can you be more specific >> well, snap today i think has a really interesting approach on this, which is today if you look at the map, right, there is
richness of where your friends and family are on the map. effectively, if you walk by -- if you are walking with your family and you walk by a pizza place and they show, come on in, we will give you a free caesar's sal land and pizza, you can see that world, you can walk into the restaurant, you can see the ad, you can experience the restaurant you maybe haven't been in, you can experience and walk in before you walk into the physical restaurant. there is some really interesting thoughts and ways that i think they can go after this so snap, to us, again they have shown this with some of their augmented reality and some of their dynamic ads with, you know, different companies trying different clothes on and seeing how the pants fit versus the shirt and what makes sense to put which together they are already doing that right now for some of their retail partners. so i think again, i think when people talk about the meta verse, i think instantly most of our investors have said snap seems like they are doing this
better and they are ahead. facebook seems to be playing catch-up so, again, the world is going to be big this is a five to ten-year vision this isn't going to drive numbers in the short term. but i think it's good they are laying this out. i do not believe this meets the outer sizing world on instagram or facebook is over. >> we are a long way from pokemon go, brent. fascinating. we will be talking about it for years, imagine good to see you. >> take care. shares of macy's surging after a big beat, raising the sales forecast, a buy back, reinstating the dividend the ceo jeff immelt is coming up on the show. we have a huge show ahead. don't go anywhere.
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holdings in cisco systems. but that current quarter guidance came in a bit soft because of the supply chain issues which we talked about ceo chuck robbins in the last hour he talked about the challenges. >> this is a moving target the whole supply chain situation, everybody on the show, everybody who delivered earnings, an auto manufacturer or a high-tech company, has talked about the challenges. we believe it's going to be with us through the end of our first half of the year, which is january, and we did say it could actually move into the second half of the year we are going to have to wait to see how things go. >> that really speaks to the transitory nature, how transitory when it comes to supply chains and the impact on companies such as cisco. >> shares were almost at three-week low this morning but now rebounded 2%. all right. don't go anywhere. macy's ceo yev jeffenttis nextnee stay with us
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welcome back i'm rahel solomon. your update at this hour afghanistan ace capital cannabis protesters are parade ago long afghan flag through the streets, protests and violence in other afghan cities today as evacuations continue from cannabis airport. in haiti, aid is slowly arriving reaching areas affected by saturday's earthquake people gathering outside an airport after an aid flight arrived. there is a desperate need for medical equipment. and lake county, california, the cash fire has destroyed 50 homes. 16 hup people have been evacuated and another 800 on stand-by to evacuate so far the fire is only about 20% contained. and new zealand's covid-19
outbound growing to 21 cases with 11 cases reported over the last day according to health authorities there. 20% of the country's population is vaccinated against covid. you are now up to date carl, back to you. >> thanks so much. we are getting news of some vaccination situations on capitol hill ea eamon has that for us. >> what we know right now is that police are investing a possible suspicious vehicle on capitol hill police are looking at a suspicious vehicle near the library of congress. so the library of congress building, if you imagine sort of a triangle between the capital building, supreme court and cannon house office building, the library congress is at the base of that triangle between the supreme court and the cannon house office building. it has been evacuate order is in the process of being evacuated the possible explosive is in a truck and officials are now looking at that truck and trying to figure out whether there is an operable explosive device
from there this all comes, of course, after there was a pipe bomb left near the dnc headquarters during the january 6th insurrection that mystery of who planted that bomb was never solved. in this case, you are looking at live pictures here on capitol hill, not sure exactly which street that is there, but in this case officials are trying to figure out exactly what they are dealing with here and as a precautionary measure, carl, they have evacuated a number of the buildings in the area and continue to extend, as you can see there, police cordoning the area we will bring you more when we know what's going on. >> thank you. stocks have taken a mild diploer on the heels of that initial headline we will watch that. meantime, macy's did have that massive earnings beat today, raised the guide. courtney reagan with ceo jeff gennette. >> good morning, carl. yeah, let's bring in macy's ceo jeff gennette.
jeff, thanks so much for being here with us a busy day and active morning for you already. the earnings looked really good as carl said shares up almost 15% i guess the first question should be, is this strength really sustainable or is this what some are calling revenge shopping as everyone's emerging from hibernation >> so what i would say on the second quarter results was part of it was just kind of that rebound, that revenge shopping, and a good portion of it though was just the strength we are getting from the strategy. when you look at the beat, you look at just the strength of the categories that were happening during the pandemic. they continued strong. so our digital business, you know, very strong comps versus 2019 you look at the home businesses, fine jewelry, fragrances but then you look at the businesses that emerged. those dormant categories that customers just weren't buying during the pandemic. so that was like the dresses and men's clothing, the luggage business is one of the biggest,
you know, standouts for us and then all the new categories that we brought in, being a department store, new categories we brought in during the pandemic, which is bringing new customers into our brand so i think it's sustainable. as i kind of look into the back half of the year, you look at the back-to-school timeframe, that is a very strong beat for us high single digits versus a two-year comp in all of the categories that mom and the kid are transacting on during back to school. >> and so you mentioned the new shoppers how do you hang on to them 5 million of them. how do you make here that you are giving them what they want if they hadn't come to macy's before, they are coming to you now, but you've got to keep them coming back, right that's the trick. >> exactly right we have, obviously, a very powerful website we have the number two website in the country in our category so we are getting a loft customers coming in from the website. and they are coming into the categories we are stronger
strong in for brand-new categories we have talked in the past about the under 40 strategy and the opportunity to make sure we have relevant products and relevant experiences for this customer. and that's what we have been hard at work at. so these new customers that come into our brand, the most important stat is how you get the second and the third purchase from this be it online, be it on the app, be it in our stores and that's the stat we watch carefully. the 4.6 million we brought in the first quarter to get a third to come back in the second quarter for mother's day, father's day, graduation, that's the stat i'm proud of. and we are miles ahead of where we usedto be with the data analytics and personization engines. when a cuselijah cummings purche once, whow do we get them back second and third time. we have a row brust plan to hold these customers into the future. >> when they come back, you want to make sure that you have merchandise there at prices that they think are appropriate and
the supply chain issues are so complex right now. it seems they have only gotten worse during covid you mentioned on the call you are trying to work with your brand partners i have talked to a number of companies that sell goods to you that are very worried about the availability of their product for the third quarter, for the fourth quarter, and the price at which they are going to be able to sell it so should consumers be concerned about leaner inventory at macy's in the third and fourth quarter, and higher prices because of the cost of transportation >> on this one recognize that the supply chain issues we have been dealing withthrough the pandemic so i would say the second quarter is a great example of this so we had a bang-out quarter we picked bup 8 # $0 million in sales from what we expected when the quarter started and we were able to bring in 1.1 bld in additional resets. so our inventories are in great shape. our turnover up by almost 20%.
i love the level i am at right now and i want to satisfy the demand in the third and fourth quarters based on these receipts what we are doing with partners is making sure we are highly flexible with them we are extending shipping dates, bringing those forward, using our muscle and our overseas supply chain to help them. if i have container opportunities, i am bringing some of my partners, merchandise on to those containers with us we are all in this together. there are categories i am not worried about supply the balance of the year and some categories are hot buttons for us we are looking for those, what are the alternatives, what do we need to do with that flight, do we have to buy off matrix so we don't disappoint customers so it's a daily pursuit and we've got very is scrappy merchants working with all of our steams overseas or our brand partners to ensure we don't disappoint point customers it's been a headwind it will continue to be a headwind there is no easy answers on this
wuchblt but every day we are figuring out solutions to take care of the customer. >> yeah. jeff, it's morgan. we are having these conversations with executives like yourself every day across industries on a this area as well i want to back to the digital strategy and specifically online sales for macy's i realize they fell 6% compared to last year, but we, obviously, saw a huge surge in the midst of the worst of the pandemic, up 45% compared to the same time period in 2019 as we start to move into a more post-pandemic era, if you will, what do more -- what does a more normalized rate of growth look like for you where online is concerned? >> great question. that's the number i think you need to anchor on, which is the 45% increase we had over 2019. we've thrown a marker out there. macy's, we believe we think we can hit $10 billion of online sales by the end of 2023 and we are on track to do that. when you do the math, that
growth raid iste is double digi. we have improved our site in function as well as experience and so when you look at the amount of categories, the amount of brands, amount of inspiration, what's important is what is going on with traffic and what's going on with conversion and both of those, if you look at the quarter, you know, our traffic was up 22%, you know, when you look at it versus 2019. our con verk was up 10%. so big improvements there. and so we are -- we have got a very robust agenda that's going to continue to improve not only our performance but also our inspiration. and, obviously, being an omni channel retailer, having the app and store muscle behind anything we are doing digitally is a huge ecosystem that we are very focused on improving. >> jeff, i'm fascinated by the comments you made about the difference between in-store traffic in cities versus suburbs and rural areas. you point out the herald square flagship still not back to pre-pandemic levels, even though
new york city today announced 75% of residents, at least adults, have a first dose. you say it's not relative to the vaccination rate necessarily >> yeah. so, carl, the three buckets i talked about on the call earlier, clearly the resident living in manhattan is shopping the bloomingdale's and macy's brand. their spend is up. and we have extremely dedicated colleagues to make sure they are reaching them. it's the back to office crowd and the international tourism. back to office is in flux. you have companies shifting their date about when the back to office is going to be everybody is talking about hybrid and how does that office worker, when do they come, are they comfortable coming back, are they going to shop in the stores that's a question mabl clearly, international tourism we don't expect to come back in 2021 we see that in '22 and beyond. thank goodness we have got our suburban and rural stores doing quite well the other comment i made, to your question, was we don't see a correlation necessarily
between vaccination rate and the business that's going on either digitally or in store. so generally the stores that -- or the parts of the country that have lower valuation rates, their business is healthier than those areas of the country have higher valuation rates there isn't a direct correlation. clearly, urban/suburban, it's about office workers and international tourism. >> we got to go. a doubleheader real quick on two pieces of news number one, you announced a new partnership with toys 'r' us why do you think toys are important? and how are you going to fight off amazon if they open up department stores? >> toys, we are very focused on the millennial, the under 40 customer i think there are a very few millennials that were not toys 'r' us kids. they know the brand. now they are buying for their own children to be -- have that kind of trusted brand with us in a category that we had low market
share. what we covered during the pandemic was huge appetite for our customers for toys and so we're expanding that. we think we can quintuple that category and if you get them with toys, we can see seed them in other categories that we have great strength in. that's very important. with amazon, you know, i think the surprise i was that it took them this long in terms of figuring out they needed to go into stores to expand their prowess in apparel you know, customers love the interaction between the app and the site and stores. when you are talking about the goods that we sell, it's not surprising we have lots of competitors. they are one of them we've got a strategy we are going to follow it. i like my chances. >> jeff gennette, thank you very much for being here with us. i spoke to kohl's ceo michelle goss and she said, look, we compete with them in a number of ways it's a big market out there. jeff, thank you so much for being us with today. >> thanks, courtney. thanks, everybody.
welcome back to "squawk on the street." fed officials discussing the potential threat stablecoins could have an financial stability saying they appear to have the same structural maturity and liquidity vulnerabilities as prime money funds but less transparency. wells fargo registering a private bitcoin fund
the largest mega bank with a crypto investment fund a lot to get to. as is the case every day where cryptocurrencies are concerned electric capital co-founder, joe gunther. slow ventures, venture partner and open money initiative co-founder welcome to you both. joe, it was a month ago we saw bitcoin breaking below 30,000 and ether selling off as well. now back around 45,000 for bitcoin, ether back above 3,000, despite this commentary from government officials and regulatory scrutiny. why? why the recent rally >> yeah, no, you're right. i mean, it's been a rough summer for cryptocurrencies, certainly in terms of the headlines, whether that's looking at chinese regulation, whether that's looking at the recent u.s. infrastructure bill, or whether that's looking more broadly at some of this recent scrutiny but on the flip side, you are having institutions, both corporate and also financial
institutions, take cryptocurrency increasingly seriously. there is bad news, there is good news i think all of this is a demonstration though that cryptocurrency is here to stay, even on the regulatory side, the fact that it's even coming up in conversations is in a whaley jit mizing the fact that this industry is here, it's established, it's maturing and so i think that we are going to continue to see cryptocurrencies remain range bound. we met resistance at 50k, resistance on the downside at 30k. i think it will take some real seismic shifts headlines we have been seeing to break out of that range. >> the same question to you, especially since electric capital works with a lot of institutions. >> yeah. on technicals, the thing i would add, the fundamentals are stronger than ever you're seeing record numbers of developers building here on the ground, as a venture firm we see people leaving the top tech
companies and leaving top universities to start projects increasingly the inflows on the earliest signals that were value creation is going to happen have never been stronger. the institutional side, our capital basis is almost entirely u.s. endowments and nonprofits and so the fact that we're seeing those institutions invest so significantly in crypto and very long time horizons indicates the rest of the market is not far behind. and there is a lot of other evidence through this. if you look at the participants in the series b, folks like henry kravitz and stanley drunkenmiller and very storied wall street institutions i think jill is right. crypto is here to stay the fundamentals have never been stronger and the short-term it is hard to know what is going to happen. >> we brought it up in the intro to the discussion, the question, the stability around stable coins by fed officials based on the minutes that were
released yesterday, you had the fed's neel kashkari saying cryptocurrencies are 90% fraud more commentary from the head of the s.e.c. gary gentzler about defy and potential need for regulation there too >> look, i mean, i have to say neel kashkari, that headline got a lot of attention around him saying 95% of crypt ocurrency is fraudulent in a way, he's not wrong you have to bear in mind, at the advent of any new technology and market there are lots of opportunists that come into it and there is always a lot of noise. and that's what he was referring to and, you know, if you zoom out, there is a famous science fiction writer who once said, 90% of everything is garbage, actually and i think that the same can be said of cryptocurrency i think in many ways he's right to be calling out the risks that are out there, associated with
some of what has come into existence. where he's very wrong to ignore the real value and the real utility that has also been created by the likes of bitcoin and some of the more real innovations and creations in this space and so, you know, i would be remiss to get on here and say, no, all cryptocurrencies are good, all of them have utility, that's simply not the case there is a lot of utility that has been created by the likes of bitcoin and many of its counterparts and that is something that we can't ignore and that's something that we're increasingly seeing washington and also institutions not ignoring and that's why we're even on here talking about it. >> alas, we're running up towards the end of the show. we have to leave the conversation there i hope you both will come back and join us again to continue this discussion at a further date thank you. >> thank you when we come back, hotels feeling the impact of the delta variant. we have losses to start august
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high frequency economic data showing the true impact of the delta variant. so says steve liesman who has the numbers for us. >> the effects of the delta variant are showing up in the high frequency data, not necessarily in the official data it shows a flattening out of the upwards slope of the recovery for some parts of the economy. propelling some outright declines in others look at our road back barometer. they stand 9% below the level. jpmorgan card spending tracker for in store spending down 3.9%. but from january 2020 it stopped improving and ukg shift, high frequency proxy for employment, it is up 2.4%. most of the weakness in the data, looks to be linked to the south and the southeast, where the delta variant has exploded growth in open table bookings in florida and texas, they have
declined sharply it is down, but much less so in california and new york, that suggests a delta connection. there had been a steady increase in spending in store according to jpmorgan's credit card data the gap looks to be widening with card not present. more internet purchases there. finally ukg work shift numbers, they're down in every region of the country for august that's seasonal. you can see they're down much more sharply in the southeast. there is that graphic right there. goldman sachs just slashes third quarter growth forecast because of delta, saying it will hurt consumption and production others may follow suit especially if the weak data we have seen in the south spreads to the coasts and to the north >> all right, steve liesman, thank you for bringing us that the delta variant is also weighing on hotel occupancy, seema mody has more on that angle. >> morgan, that's right. fewer travelers checking into hotels resulting in a drop in
hotel occupancy. the 65.7% versus the 70% we were at two weeks ago that data according to sdr a lot of analysts in the travel world including truist are greeting the weak occupancy results to factors like back to school and the delta variant with demand declining, daily average rates charged by hotels per night has also fallen to below $140 a new survey conducted by ubs found the percentage of respondents ready to travel has drifted lower in recent weeks, falling further below 50% after hitting a high of 66% in june. now, august results tend to be a bit messy with schools reopening. that's why the next few weeks of data through labor day will provide much important read as to how covid is truly disrupting travel plans the weakest markets now still big cities, where we're seeing the most revenue drops, the largest presence being houston, louisville, and new york and san francisco where we are seeing
the biggest revenue declines in hotel occupancy. two markets to keep an eye on. that is reflected in the performance of these hotel operators, marriott, hyatt and hilton among others. back to you. >> seema mody, thank you for that well, the s&p is moving back into the green, right around the flatline that's going to do it for "squawk on the street. "techcheck" and cathie wood starts right now cathie wood. >> cathie wood. >> cathie wood. >> will join us on "techcheck." >> i've been waiting for this for my entire career ark stood for two things, democratization and transparency we're focused on innovation and very rapid growth companies. zoom, those who invest in technology are going to basically consolidate the industry our confidence in tesla, tesla, tesla, tesla has gone up for a number of reasons. elon musk's determination, creativity, ingenuity, roku, counterpart risk associated with deflation and in