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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  August 20, 2021 5:00pm-5:30pm EDT

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i've got to say wilfred, it was a strong close and a strong week for stocks but there was a lot of caution out there the dollar was up a percent. those things don't happen when things are all great have a great weekend sorry. i didn't leave you much time there. >> gm is down 2.5% as well >> we'll follow that after the recall on the bolt fires have a good weekend everyone that does it for us on "closing bell." "fast money" begins now. live from the nasdaq overlooking times square, this is "fast money." tonight's trader lineup, tim, brian, and pete najarian, cofounder of we're counting down to another big week of earnings with names like salesforce and peloton and more getting ready to report how should you be looking at these stocks ahead of the key results. plus going global, what the surging dollar means for
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overseas markets and where you should be putting your money and stick around for a bonus our of "fast" focusing on technology that will impact your life "the next" is live tonight at 6:00 p.m. eastern time but we start with late breaking news out of general motors the stock under pressure in the afterhours session, the company expanding its massive recall on the chevy bolt gm recalling all chevrolet bolt electric vehicles due to fire risks, the cost $1 billion shares are lower more than 3%. let's trade that late breaking news tim, your take >> well, i'm shareholder i'm not happy. i wasn't happy with the 24% move down in gm going into this in 50 some-odd sessions, a lot of this on the back of the shortages on semis, supply disruption dynamics that ford announced, gm announced, other autos announced. but this recall, it's not -- from a gm secular move towards
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ev and autonomous and battery dynamics and all that technology, the bolt is not really a flagship part of that the cost related to this is significant. but for a company that's routed out costs and become a lot more efficient especially in businesses in europe and the u.s. and have enormous free cash flow generation it's interesting to me and i'm frustrated by the fact the market punishes gm and don't reward them for record profitability and the stock trading inside eight times earnings i hate this news in the afterhours i think the stock is overdone. >> pete, what's your take? do you think the stock's overdone >> it had an extraordinary run to the upside. this was a stock that was just over $60 not long ago and we've sold off to where we are now any time you get this kind of news especially on a friday going into the weekend after the market closes and then they announce this news, you're going to see a stock get hit hard.
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2.5%, 3% to the down side. i think this will create opportunity. i, like tim, i like this name. i think gm has great possibility. i didn't want to chase it and i think for guys like myself who haven't been in there, this might create an opportunity because i agree with tim this whole situation the volt. let's be honest, that's not where gm is going. because of that i think this is a one off. i think that's money they're going to have to pay that's not ever fun but it's an opportunity. >> billion dollars certainly material and the market trading it as material, but do you think that there is more opportunity beyond this point, or do you think that there could be more bad news to come >> well, leslie, i think it's a little bit of investor fatigue you saw earlier in the week toyota came out and said they would be cutting production about 40% in september volkswagen came out and said the same thing, they have to cut production in september. you're looking at a lot of
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supply related issues. and of a while and after tim said after a big hit for people who have been loyal to these stocks, they get a little fatigue when a news after friday close comes out. they're just like i'm done with this i want to wait until i get positive news coming in my favor. >> no brownie points for putting news like this on a friday evening. how does this change risk/reward dynamic between gm relative to other auto makers out there? >> i think with the move we've had it makes the risk/reward better for gm. i know that sounds a bit counterintuitive we've got the bad news out i agree with everybody else. you're not buying gm because you think the chevy bolt is going to be the car of the future if you are, then you deserve to lose money with gm but the point is this is probably -- this is coming in. we've come down from 65 or so on this at 45, 46, 45 bucks, that seems to be support. so, when i watch for on monday
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is a reversal. if you open lower and reverses to the higher, that's your classic bad news good price action so, i do think the risk-reward is better today than it was before this news >> interesting sounds like we've got a consensus to start today's show. moving on, let's grab your passports, pack your bag we're taking a trip around the world. the dollar surging to a nine-month high this week and china's long route pushing the fxi to its worst week since february the latest cause for concern, china's housing market ever grand dropping to a near four-year low as concerns grow that the company won't be able to repay debt. with chinese markets plunging and questions about what the taper will mean for the u.s., where should you be looking for opportunities? b.k., what's your take >> my take is you probably don't want to look for international opportunity. there's a couple things going on number one if we continue getting stronger dollar and let's call that over the shorter to medium term three weeks to
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three months or something like that, that's not going to be good for emerging markets. the dollar is the new vix. so, the higher the dollar goes, the worse it is for the global economy. so, you don't really want to be looking internationally. the other thing is i'm frankly very surprised that risk assets have not priced in the popping of the housing bubble in china i know it's a bit opaque there, but i think that's a very big risk that nobody's taking account of yet so, i actually don't want to be international at all >> do you agree with that, nadine do you think the markets haven't really priced that in yet? and do you agree with b.k. that you should be looking inward more domestically? or are there opportunities externally >> well, i've got partial agree and partial disagree i agree with him on the fact that i think the news out of china is a really big deal, as we've talked about on the show we've been short china we know there's continuing issues there, gdp continues to decelerate and it's affecting
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the dollar i think the dollar has a lot more to do with china's deflation than it does with the fed's actions. and you see that because in material prices and other types of things that have really come off hard this week especially, and it has to do with china's deceleration instead of reflation, it's deflation. so, until china can accelerate its growth we're not going to see the dollar be able to go down and you're not going to see ems pop up but we are big buyers of europe, as we've talked about before we think that can be separate from issues in china >> pete, you also like europe, right? >> yeah, i do. and specifically i look at the financials when i'm seeing names like j.p. morgan and goldman sachs trading two times books and barkleys trading a third of book or half a book, it makes me scratch my head a little bit. and i think there's a lot of different opportunities out
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there. yes the european banks did have a run but they have plenty of room to run further faster as we get into the second half of the year first half of the year was not so bad second half of the year i think they can accelerate more >> tim, are you looking internationally? >> i'm a dyed in the wool emerging markets guy i hate what's happening in china. fresh 11-year lows 11-year lows relative to the s&p. so, it's been a sad story especially because you had a breakout in february you got back to free all-time highs on the index in china you want india. etf inda india has the best demographics in em arguably they benefit from what's going on rates can only go so high in the near future. india benefits from that there's a major move to ev technology there's a major green move there's a major fintech move and a technology move which india's inherently been exposed to
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the fact the rupee is something that's holding in against the dollar and i think that the balance of payment story and the macro is very, very good look at that chart on india, continues to make fresh eyes i think it will continue to. it's, to me, the kind of bright spot in em here. and i think, look, a lot of this we talked about china. this is china doing this to themselves i'm less concerned about the property market. to me the move in china and the move in em is about the regulators and the heavy hand in china and zero sense from investors they believe the credibility of the chinese government is, you know, on their behalf, et cetera. so, i hope china's playing the long, long game because the short game has been very, very frustrating. >> with india and emerging markets broadly, tim, last time the fed tapered, we did see kind of a falloff effect in emerging markets. is india poised to get caught up in that? and also it's a pretty big trading partner with china as well does it feel any effect from the regulation and more of the heavy
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handedness, as you describe it, that's been going on in china right now? >> again, i think, look, the global macro, especially that out of asia, especially out of southeast asia i think is very resilient and very organic and i think india's growth is consistent it's not reliant on china. it's a domestic economy. i worry about em trends overall. if it gets dicey and gnarly on the back of the fed -- if i had to underscore one point this week, i will say this. i think investors are underestimating the concept of tapering people came out of this minutes announcement remember this july fed minutes, this july fed meeting where we got minutes was before we had a massive labor number, before we had the fresh round of producer price and input dynamics on inflation. and i think the majority within the fed that was ready to taper is going to be even more so. and if we look at every time any central bank but especially the fed in the last three or four years has tried to remove any
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accommodation and going back to the crisis, look, this is a dangerous time for markets we started this talking about em em will underperform if the u.s. goes through a difficult time. and this week, to me, i think investors have been overly ang sanguine about the prospects for tapering >> interesting b.k., you started saying you weren't looking internationally. i'm curious if any of the other traders made a case that has you reconsidering. >> i got to google sanguine so i know what tim was talking about. give me one second >> a little dictionary lesson today. >> those are big words on a friday night anyway, i do think tim makes ai very compelling case for india and if i had to choose an investment in the em, in asia for the next couple of years, it would absolutely be the india. the point that tim makes about the transition that's going on there both digitally and in fintech to me is exciting.
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so, if i had to, i would pick india. >> all right and, you know, you've got a little dictionary action you got a little trading suggestion you know, tim, you're winning so far today. if this were a game, you would be winning >> it's about time >> well, the chart master says the green back is due for a pullback let's bring in cornerstone macros carter worth to chart out what it means for emerging markets. carter >> well, that's right. we've had a big move in the dollar and of course we've had quite a selloff in em. and i think you'll get a trade here with the dollar backing down and e.m. bouncing let's look at a few charts the first is the dxi, the dollar index chart. and what you see here is of course the 60-session move, the three-month january-march move and the one on may-august. both of these stop, we reversed hard today and closed on the low. where all that congestion is from about a year ago. to my eye, we have come a long
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way, an impressive advance almost 5% back to a difficult level. and i think the dollar does back away here. what that means for the e.m., we shall see but my hunch is you play fair bounce let's look at three eem charts this is the eye shares, and emerging market etf. the first is if you will the february to present pullback it's exactly 15%, and it's remarkably orderly it's been in this channel, as annotated on the screen. now, the next chart is sort of an up close and personal of that channel. and what you see quite precisely, again, is that eem has responded to the upper and lower band almost perfectly to the penny like some sort of pinball machine. so, the final chart is this. this drawdown leaves us exactly at the lower bend and that's where we were last time.
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this drawdown is 11.7% the previous drawdown, remarkably similar in terms of magnitude and duration, 11.6%. my thinking is you get a bit of a bounce and want to belong again just as you get a bit of a selloff in the dxy >> all right thank you, carter. let's trade this, going first to mr. e.m tim seymour, you agree with that you think there's a bounce in store for e.m. >> i love the calm nature of carter's description of the markets moving forward and it makes me feel better i do think you have a dynamic with the dollar. you look at the range with the dollar and this is a chart that could be breaking out, it also is the chart that is the upper end of a range i think you've also had a place where e.m. currencies and even some of the rates markets have made a fiscal adjustment and while they're always going to be vulnerable to a dollar move, yeah, look, i like the story. and this is a week where i think
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a lot of traders were tempted to pull the plug on e.m i know i was on a couple positions. and i think there is some sense of you have to change for the long run because some of these reflation trades, i absolutely believe continue and e.m. is a major beneficiary of those types of moves. even high rates, there's always a risk >> was it a calm description or was it a sanguine description is the real question? nadine, i wanted to get your thoughts on carter's comments with regard to the dollar. do you think it's still kind of the safe haven that it used to be or is the market trading it differently these days >> we really think it's just trading because of china deflation. so, if we start to look at that turning around, which we don't expect to happen for several quarters, we think that the dollar could continue to strengthen it's at the top of our trading range, so i think he's right you could have a little bounce here in terms of it backing off.
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if you're short the dollar, you could make a little bit of money or if you want to go long e.m. but what i think you could do is take tim's advice and go long india and short china. china is usual will you a large part of those indexes, so therefore maybe you would be able to play the e.m. trade without having to have a ton of china, which obviously has a lot of other risks other than macro risks, a lot of headline risks >> interesting we have a news alert on pfizer kate rogers has that story for us >> "the new york times" is reporting now that the fda is aiming to give full approval to pfizer's covid-19 vaccine on monday the paper reporting that this is further expediting a earlier timeline for licensing that shot they're sourcing people familiar with the agency's planning here. we are going to reach out to the fda and we'll bring you any updates as we get them regulators of the paper says we're working to finish the process by friday, still working
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through a substantial amount of paperwork and negotiations with the company. the agency have recently set an unofficial deadline for approval of that around labor day of course if this is expedited you could see more vaccine mandates coming down the line once this is given full regulatory approval. back to you. >> that could be why we're seeing a decent jump in the aftermarket up more than 1%. b.k., does this move the needle at all >> it's moving the needle in the afterhours i would be wary of these afterhours moves just like we talked with gm you're talking about a thin aftermarket trading. i wouldn't be rushing in this evening to bye pfizer on this news >> all right coming up earnings season may be winding down but there are a handful of big names yet to report this quarter. we'll break down what they have to say with a good ole' game of "trade it or fade it." we're back right after this.
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reporting results after the bell on thursday, a nice 3% boost today leading up to next week. tim, trade it or fade it >> yeah, look, i'm going to fade this one i think it's been a tremendous turnaround at the gap stores old navy certainly the kind of flagship and the foundation of some of this growth, but a management turn around, certainly loyalty and digital trends that are great. i don't love the valuation i think it's a big move. i think they're caught up in the restructures story i'm going to fade it thank you. >> fall into the gap pete, you agree? >> no. i'm going to trade it. as a matter of fact i bought calls just today but i will tell you this, it had a 30 plus percent move in the first half of the year i think we see more in the second half of the year. it's been as high as 36. it's still only trading 16 times. there's a short interest that could push it up we saw what happened with macy's early in the week. there's reasons to like like
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athleta. this is a company with a big future with celebrities as well. next up dell also out on thursday busy day nadine, trade it or fade it? >> i would trade it. so, if you own it i think you can own it into the print. i tried to get a new laptop, even my brother who sells these things couldn't get me a new laptop so, demand is strong two, they've been delevering and then three, they've had really, really great client solutions from the first quarter. we have no reason to believe it shouldn't be extending in the second and third quarter so, i think those are positives. everybody thoknows about the suy issues going on here, so i think there's a lot of negative news baked in i think you can trade at 95 to 100 but i can own in the print >> trade it or fade it, b.k. >> my call is less about the fundamentals and more about the tech set up ahead of earnings.
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you have this basically in a channel. to me what is the risk reward to go out there and be aggressive ahead of earnings because if it breaks out of this channel, it starts to break higher you've got a lot of room to run, so i would fade it here means i would wait to see what earnings have to say and you missed a couple points but you're not going to get killed on the way down >> speaking of laptops moving to best buy out with results monday before the open. pete trade it? fade it? where you at >> i got to trade it and the reason i say that is i love the fundamental story here. yes the stock has doubled since you go back to march of 2020 but this is a company that continues to grow. you look at the comparable sales there very strong. every one of their categories have strength in sales and a lot of at-home features as well. this is a stock that has plenty of room to the upside. >> we'll see monday morning. thank you guys up next, your final trades miss a moment of "fast,"
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it's already time for the final trade. let's go around the horn tim? >> lesley, thank you for joining us today let's go back to india inda i shares. we talked about the macro. we talked about the tech movement there i love the story >> nadine? >> i'm going to go with a company called adyen it's a european payments business and postpandemic payments have become more strategic and cashless and this one's a winner zblchl
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pete >> how about a chip stock that's performed better than the video over the last year or so, marvel giddy up >> last but not least, b.k >> for me it's cyber arc cyber is big, right? this is one that i am sanguine about. >> we are not sanguine we are sanguine. anyway, that does it for "fast money" but we have a special bonus hour at 6:00 "options action" is xtne
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hey there "options action" fans i'mlessly picker in for melissa lee. we have a big show coming your way. here's what's on tap >> going for the gold, the chart master sees a shiny new opportunity, as the dollar rallies to a nine-month high carter worth is breaking down the charts plus, may the force be with you. tony zhang is looking to the cloud as salesforce gears up for earnings, why he's betting this name could start raining profits. and later,


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