tv Fast Money CNBC November 9, 2021 5:00pm-6:00pm EST
about 20%. i think arguably people are braced for slower growth parks, they are not harvesting from there reaction to earnings in general shows investors are tight. >> paypal. >> that's going to do it for "closing bell. "fast money" begins now. >> this is "fast money." i'm melissa lee. tonight's lineup -- tonight ge heads to splitsville. the industrial giant is breaking into three separate companies. but will that unlock value for investors. and coinbase, the company is
down right now theircall is in less than 30 minutes. and tesla skidding nearly 12% today. what sent shares in reverse. a countdown to one of the biggest ipos of the year let's get straight to phil lebeau with all of the details >> here is the latest on pricing. most on wall street said do not be surprised if you see this priced at the high end of the range and if you see the stock run once the trading begins. the expectation set by the company, $72 to $74 per share. it was originally 62 to $67 per share. proceeds from this will top $8 billion, at least that's the expectation right now. two stocks that people will be focused on as rivan starts to trade.
ford and amazon. these shares are back at the beginning of 2019, when amazon as well as ford, within a couple months of each other both made substantial investment in rivian now amazon owns 20% of rivian, that's its stake ford owns 12%. amazon has already indicated in the latest s-1, they are doubling down, said they are likely to buy more shares. ford, while it had a close relationship when they made an initial investment, there was a board member, rivian platform was going to be the platform of ford's ev. that is no longer the case it will be interesting to see whether ford cashes out at some point and says we are going to get $7 or $8 billion which is a
nice payoff on a half billion initial investment again, we arewaiting for that pricing. >> phil, quickly, what is the thinking behind ford distancing itself as opposed to embracing the relationship and leveraging that more. >> that's been going on for sometime, melissa. that started a while ago when they made the decision that they were not going to have the board seat they gave that it up and also made the decision that they were going to do it themselves, that they were not going to use the platform for the r 1 t truck, that they felt they could do it better on their own. it is not an ak cromonious relationship between ford and
rivian so it will be interesting whether ford says this is a nice payoff on the ipo or whether they say later we should work closer >> thanks, phil. what do we make of this ipo. there are so many ways to go about it it's given to you at $72 per share, if you had the opportunity to buy it, would you grab it? >> do i have the opportunity to sell it shortly thereafter then, yes, i would i think there will be so much hype around this, just the dynamic of the way an offering goes, you can't short stock at the beginning. it's got so many buzz words. the truck looks really cool. they were saying last night they were raving about how great the truck is yes, i would is the short
answer valuation be damned. >> maybe the hype is deserved. if everybody is coming out with great reviews and there is a demanding for this type of suv could it be, guy, that the hype is warranted >> i think in this case the answer is yes. it was talked about in glowing fashion. i think if you read over the last couple weeks, people say this will be the most talked about, most important ipo of 2021 karen is right if she has the opportunity to sell it it could be indicated 72 or 75 and it could open higher than that and phil was talking about the $65 billion. it's reasonable to think it will trade north of ford which is $80 billion. i don't know how you trade
rivian maybe today was short given the volume i still think there is room for the upside >> we don't know how it will trade at the open. that's what makes it so exciting chg what we do know is there is a love for evs, and a love for green investing. are those two tail winds enough at least to sort of bridge that gap between now and the time when rivian starts to deliver? >> in the current market environment, yes you have a dynamic where investors are willing to die into the growth, secular stories and liquidity risk curves. the investment theme around evs, this is a disruptive sector by
definition, but they are a dis distrupor relative to other ev players. if you focus on mobility and fleets -- i'm quoting a research piece saying something along the lines of they are more driven to total miles driven by fleets than personal miles driven they look to discorrupt the entire ev space and make it more towards a service than vehicle that combined with the technology and quality of the product. the amazon lineage here, or at leave the relationship is one that the companies have a similar way of thinking about growth and about how i think they approach their respective spaces i think rivian is more than a shiny on in the middle of an easy story gone wild i think there is a lot to prove,
but the valuation is such that relative to other stories and what others have been willing to pay for it, i think the valuation will go up and will go higher >> even if ford walks away, amazon wants to buy more, and amazon is giving them on a silver platter a big order for a fleet. >> and they have a big order from me after reading the note last week. i put in an order for the suv that's supposed to come out next year they are shipping cars this will be a hard one. wherever it is priced tomorrow morning, even if we have a red tape, it will be opening up a great deal more. one of the reasons why companies like this go public, is they sell products to consumers it is a big opportunity for them and a big branding event so the more people that find out about this stock that's going to trade likely very well, the more
people find out about their products i saw one of the r1ts. i got to play around in it it is pretty cool. it doesn't look like the ford lightning coming out it is a different ball of wax. it is being allocated to some very large holders, new large holders, valuation will be the thing. it will be a moving target for years to come. it will be volatile. all you have to do is look at the 10 or 11-year history of tesla and we are still in the first inning of the story. we will all have opportunities to buy into this story at lower levels >> upper right square has a question, tim seymour. >> dan, do you have the biggest garage in new york city? every time there is an order you
put in an order. >> i bought the ford mustang mache. i thought it looked cool i will probably get this one when it comes out. but a bold case. tesla has their standard for charging and it's built out pretty well all over the country. then there is everybody else and this infrastructure plan and everybody else has to work on their own standards. if that starts to get built out in a meaningful way, that will be a huge competitive edge versus tesla i know that story hasn't worked. it's all coming now. here is a shiny new packet when you get detroit in the mix and the germans and the south koreans in the mix it's coming. before we move on to coinbase are the other ev stocks sources
of funds for buying? guy, what do you think >> we talked about that last week i thought it would be in the form of tesla and tesla went from 1120 to 1240, so that lasted about four or five hours. i think to a certain extent, the tesla sell-off today, in my opinion only, i think it's a source of funds in terms of where it's going in terms of rivian >> let's get to coin shares dropping after hours. down 10% or more kate >> it was a miss on revenue. trading volume fell 29% from the prior quarter. coinbase says this is due to softer conditions driven by low volatility and declining asset prices ntus also down by 1.4 million.
still more than tripling coinbase did not disclose the take rate. but that is calculated separately coming in at 1.1% down from 1.3% from the quarter before in q2. that's the percentage of each transaction coinbase gets to keep as metric it grows in the trading space and some worry about compression. coinbase says -- so really laying it out there and pointing out that market conditions have improved meaningfully coinbase says that has continued into early q4.
the value of assets on the platform jumps to $255 billion more than half of that coming from institutional investors there is a call kicking off at 5:30 eastern we will bring you any headlines. >> thanks a lot. kate rooney. down 11% karen, what did you make >> the quarter was disappointing. they said we are going to have a lumpy revenue stream but revenue is up the start of the fourth quarter. i kind of believe them, it will be lumpy, but i think in the land grab they are in a really good spot. they deserve to be rich. they also had an improvement in sub strippings and services which is staking and some other things so i didn't think the quarter
was that bad i think what happened was it was up maybe $100 in the three weeks prior to the announcement of the quarter. if they had announced a month ago, i think it would have been fine i think they are in an interesting position instead i own bitcoin though >> to invoke a term used by brian kelly, is this the sort of investment you put in a drawer and leave it tim? >> i think so. look where we are in fourth q already. october trends are up already over 3q. the lag effect i think we flagged to where coinbase was relative to bitcoin. so from july to october it really, really lagged. bitcoin is up 130% from july, but from october 1 to today,
bitcoin up 55% coin base up 55% i think part of the disappointment is they underperformed their peer group in the third quarter that's what this is about. if you worry about coin base, i do not you worry about them because square and papal -- they are all about engagement there is not a fee element they want to keep people on those apps where coin base, i think they have a user base that will have some sensitivity that's something they will have to solve this bodes well. this may not be great for coinbase, but the fact they are competing with hood is good. and full disclosure, i am full hood >> dan joins us. what is your take of the quarter? >> i agree with the last comment
and comments from kate rooney. this was a bad quarter it all comes down to the take race we are long robin hood for well. they are giving it away for free and coinbase is charging a lot pressure on crypto is coming in at a faster pace i think that to me is the biggest case out there everything else, the higher mtu, they have no control over that i think the i hadiosyncratic stf is more interesting. >> what if there is a land grab in new markets, is well positioned for that? >> it's a greatpoint, melissa. if i think about subscription services where i think it is the big hope where subscription services will become the majority you are seeing incremental he
have knew was less than incremental revenue in q two versus q 1 the overall users are getting more users services has become smaller. i think there is a lot of dreams to dream, but the reality is much mharsher. >> is there a facebook component to this that the market isn't taking into consideration as well >> in terms of what? what do you mean by that >> some relationship potentially with face book or meta, whatever they are calling the company these days >> again, i think at the end of the day -- maybe i am a minority here, but at the end of the day i really think all these
partnerships are as important as the one single thing which is majority, more than 80% of revenue by transaction fees and they are coming down sharply you see those in the press released to. the reality is the stock is down 11% because the results were disappointing and that's what is going to drive the narrative i believe for the next six months. appreciate it. >> this has been the concern that everybody would reduce fees to zero. they are depending on not being at zero very fast. >> i don't think their business model operates well right now if they are at zero there are other ways to do it. you mentioned the fact they are going to do nft wallets.
i think you will see there is clearly money made in the crypto markets trading other things, other assets that they are not trading on their platform now. the other one is think about the people who are actively trading crypto they are trying to do it on the cheapest exchange possible about robin hood, that's a, and the other one is simple, that they are also trading tesla options it was really fun to buy call options in tesla that went out in the money almost every single expiration you could pick. i think there is some of that going on especially as you have more institutions on the crypto markets, they are not selling, they are buying more the volatility is going to be compressed a little bit. >> we have a news alert on apple. >> we have alex gorsky, the ceo
of johnson & johnson joining the apple board. he is also on the business roundtable board of director as well as ibm and the wharton school of pennsylvania so now he is member of the apple board of directors >> at first i thought it is a board appointment, but then i thought it is the ceo of johnson & johnson and apple has had health ambitions i am wondering how you interpret this >> it is interesting he is a great guy, popular it is interesting because as apple wants to get into this, i think there is a lot of open space for them and i think he is an excellent choice. >> coming up, three big movers the traders are breaking down why the name is lighting up.
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money. check out three of the big movers that caught our attention today -- tim, you flagged the move on palantir >> valuation extraordinary the commercial business growing over 100%. the rest of their business growing in the 40s and an outlook that says we are going to grow 30% a year between now and 2025 i find the commercial business growing. commercial customer base growing 46% year over year that's the story if you are commercial base which is the high margin base and the place we wanted to see them grow outside of some of their government contracts, et cetera. i think this is a stock that has a difficult valuation to see growth that's a little bit less than ex-pegted the total growth outside of commercial, a little less than 30%. that's the disappointment here
it has been wildly volatile and i think is well positioned long-term. i think this company is so important strategically to so many people that they continue strong >> guy, paypal >> i would have said i think it would hold the low and you buy against that i'm glad you didn't. on the back side of this, dan thought this exact thing would happen traded about 63 million shares today. it feels like a capitulation day, but it did not bounce once at all today which makes me believe there is further downside >> twitter launching its blue service for about $3 per month people will be able to undo tweets and have access to free articles >> can you undo something, dan
>> you can this is about unsnarky comments about misspellings i did it the stock hasn't responded that's no surprise but they are able to better mon advertise their user base. i am taking a shot on the long side i want to use 50 as a stop to the downside below that i think it gets sloppy this company is unchanged on the year not a lot of things to be positive about, but this rollout could be one of those sorts of things that we might look back at and say this is an inflection point. >> karen, i personally stand by any snark i tweet out -- and i try not to tweet any snark
out -- but other people might want to take it back >> i always thought -- anyone can take a screen shot of it but $3 is an interesting price it's not a giant commitment and you won't think about it i think it's smart i try not to be snarky or typeo, but times i fail in both i should look into it. >> you are only human, like the rest of us >> we have a lot more ahead -- >> ge split has investors swooning the traders give their best advice, next plus big gains in small caps the russell 2000 breaking out. one top tech says the climb could continue
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welcome back to "fast money. let's catch you up on some of the after hours action -- poshmark is down 27% wynn resorts, the ceo is stepping down in january let's turn to news that helped ge touch their highest level in more than three years. the company is splitting up into three separate units the aviation business where the
ge name will live on the health care business and the energy business. >> we know that the focus and accountability in a structure like this always increase. we think we have an opportunity here as well to have sharper capital allocation and more strategic flexibility and clearly this is a good thing for the teams in each of the businesses >> got to go to tim on this. shareholder. you like this? >> i do. it makes a lot of sense. also i think larry culp has a lot of experience doing this he did it at supply chain management and understands how to squeeze efficiency out of businesses speaking of snark, it's easy to be cynical and dismissive of ge
a 's attempt to do various things including a share split back when some of this seems to be optic, but if you look at the businesses they run, they belong separately this is no longer a world of conglomerates or where ge uses them to smooth earnings, ha ha, back in the day. i think the core customer base, especially in their aviation business i like the move. i think these companies can be better capitalized than the mother ship. >> for a move that is meant to bring value, the stock is only up 2.7%. what is your take on that,
karen? >> the market was down a couple hundred. at one point it was up like six bucks. but as you pointed out this isn't going to happen right away it will happen in stages so it is a little ways off but i really do think they are doing the right thing. they are dismantling the ge used to do everything right it hassen been that way for a long, long time. i think empire building is over. as culp said, you are providing incentives for those who run specific industries. that makes it clear. you can have more flexibility there. the other thing is you can have things trade at better multiples. aviation alone i think will trade better than all of them blended together the other thing is buyers who want to own ge aviation, now they have so much other stuff they are buying alongside with
it, it's a little noisy. i think it is a very good idea on the snark thing i do think that reverse split come on. >> now that that's out there, you can't take that back at all. dan, i wonder what your take is on the g e-news in relationship to where we are. does this signify where we are in the cycle >> you generally don't see these things at bottoms of market, closer to tops because management realize it is a better opportunity to realize the low. close on the low if you look at a five-year chart of ge and this precipitous drop -- i know the market dropped in 2018. but that's when culp took over it has done nothing for a very long time. it has had a couple declines and
made it back i think the price action this year is interesting. maybe it signals to culp to investors they are on board, other than tim and after the stock went sideways, maybe it's the time to do it, but it doesn't seem like the sort of thing on a macral level. >> investors have been in on this since 2018 and they are behind this all of the way guy, this is a remarkable historic change to general electric once upon a time it was thought that there was synergy between businesses, maybe even power between the turbine business and aero business. and now it's no, it's flawed or maybe just flawed today. >> you should do a documentary
on the rise and fall of general electric karen said something interesting, the time when ge did everything right, there was a time when everybody perceived ge was doing everything right. at though jeff takes the seeds for a lot of this, and i think we learned the hard lessons in 2008 and 2009. i said this for a while, maybe you get another bounce in ge, but the much better company to last 20 years is honeywell and it continues to grind higher, within a whis per of its all-tim high it's a better run company for the last 20 years. we will go off the charts next plus, tesla tanks, inking their worst day since september of last year. what's next for the stock? "fast money" is back in two.
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with potential chris, what do you see in the charts >> i think small caps are still really interesting here as we look forward to the end of '21 and into '22 russell 2000 was up 140% off the march 2020 lows and then it got stuck. we see that range that russell 2 has been in for the better part of the year. we have been waiting for resolution we got it. most importantly for us. it's doing it with an expanding new high list. the percentage stocks making new highs within the russell 2 is something like 30% when you get a big expansion of new highs, it returns over the next three to six months, better than historical averages
we like it is doing it with good breadth as well. this is about a four or five-month relative high for russell 2 versus s&p and it brings us to the third chart which is the idea this is the sweet spot of the calendar for small versus large over the last 40 years, from november to about march is historically when you have seen the bulk of small cap leadership the question we want to ask ourselves, within russell 2, where are the best areas of strength we will start with semiconductors many corrected over spring and summer i think the macroperspective that you have seen these break
out, this is a market hint that maybe some of these supply chain issues are starting to ease. and the financials here as well. the last chart this is the financials within the russell 2000 that are making new highs. we have seen that data swell expanding data for the russell 2 broadly, but we see it with semis. it's hard to say the market is slowing when you have down the cap scale acting as well as they are. >> rich, it's tim. fascinating work let's go to the mosaic that relates to transports and industrials. i have always seen the correlation between small caps and economic growth. can you talk about how this plays into two big sectors that at one point sinx weeks ago
looked like they were rolling over as stocks went higher >> good point. the big cap industrials and small cap industrials over the last several weeks is another arrow in the quiver of this story. we have been through one or two quarters where growth slowed, whether supply chain induced or supply chain induced it is not my opinion it is the market's opinion the opinion of the market with small cap industrials, semis, financials, discretion getting better look at some of these bellwether industrials, ge. >> message of the market but not the message of the bond market i understand where a lot of the ten-year yield are positions, but what do you see in the charts >> i think this low 40 to 145
will be a test for yields. we are 20 months off the march 2020 lows. that is not an unusual point for the curve to actually start to flatten. it doesn't steepen indefinitely. it is about 17, 18, 19 months off a market low where you actually tend to see the curve flatten. it doesn't mean recession. it means cycle >> chris, great to see you thank you. so interesting world we live in in which the markets, the equity markets can be telegraphing a strong economy and the bond market is telegraphing -- i don't know what it is telegraphing at 1.34%. guy? >> neither do i.
real yeeds have never been lower. i said a couple months ago we played what is the most important chart we are looking at i said it was the russell up into february of this year and then a subsequent sideways action between 210 and 2035 -- 235. i thought it would break down and here it is up. that was my take a while ago and now. the iwm is the barometer for everything >> a major roadblock for tesla as shares continued to slide, dropping nearly 12% toy.da is the worst over? disney earnings are on deck. will there be a bit of magic on deck
twitterverse if he should sell shares of his stock. his brother also offered to sell shares the day before. karen, there are a lot of things swirling around this what do you make of it >> wondering if this was necessary sales versus margin loan also, musk brings up himself the idea of taxes and if he has to pay taxes, and he doesn't have liquidity other than stock also, the stock has run up a lot. to me i think it was more about taxes and wanting to make that statement, and it would be worth that much money, whatever it is, $300 billion i don't think it's his commentary on tesla is not going gangbuster as guy always likes to point
out, i think he said it was overvalued at 400 or something like that. >> that's true, too. whatt what he may be thinking about is that taxes going up next year and valuations in center in terms of tax policy as a nation. dan? >> i think it's total bs this stock lost $150 billion in market cap because he decided to send a tweet out to his 63 million followers and see whether or not he should sell stock for whatever reason. that's just not cool it's not we have been talking about on this show this company was literally -- he had handshake deals three times over the last ten years to sell the company because in two instances they couldn't make payroll.
should have been selling stock and put money on their balance sheet so they can survive the next crisis they have. in a week we just started the show talking about rivian having an $60 to $80 billion market cap? now his stock is down 17% because of his tweet not cool >> coming up -- >> wait, could i respond >> yeah. >> eight times they have sold equity and convert, so it is not that they haven't tapped the market the company i mean >> okay. >> i understand -- >> can i insert one more thing my producer is like wrap, wrap, wrap if there is a tax on unreal liesed gains, imagine what ceos and people who own massive
shares of companies when they have to pay that tax bill because they are cash poor, but rich the thing that is not cool could be magnified across the market >> i will bet you my ford mustang mach there will never be a tax on unrealized capital gain >> i don't want that car setup for tomorrow straight ahead. "fast money" will be back right after this
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higher or lower and that is in line with the 4% the company has reported over the last eight quarters we saw buyers about 8500 buyers of those will bet the stock will move at least the implied move to the upside by the end of the week. a lot of the other call activity were actually sellers. sellers of those calls are betting that if those are moved it will be limited to about 8.5% that could be a function that at about 35 times earning it is trading higher than average. up next, final trade it's your future. so you don't lose sight of the big picture, even when you're focused on what's happening right now. and thinkorswim trading™ is right there with you. to help you become a smarter investor. with an innovative trading platform
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>> karen >> zillow. >> dan >> let's take a crack on twitter. >> guy >> i wanted one of those r2d2 i am here to level the plain field for all investors there is always a bull market some where, i promise to help you find it. "mad money" start now. hey, i am cramer welcome to "mad money," i am not trying to make friends but trying the make you some money my job is not only to entertain but to educate you, call me at