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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  November 12, 2021 12:00pm-1:00pm EST

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lot in the ev space. the market ridiculouslessness calendar is in the latess 90s. >> a busy one next week. retail earnings and big tech names like nvidia which what a run also >> yep, and you'll have cramer to play with out west as he goes out west. >> can't wait. >> and retail earnings let's get to the half. >> carl thanks so much welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner the week that either confirmed the rally or questioned it joining me for the hour, kerry firestone, co-founder of market rebellion. the winning streak yields and the ten-year note yield 157. 1.57%. we'll get to that debate and it's a good one to have, but we have to get down to d.c. kayla tausche has breaking news. >> the white house is confirming
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that president biden will hold a virtual bilateral summit with china's president xi jinping on monday evening following the president's signing of that bipartisan infrastructure bill the white house press secretary tells cnbc that the purpose of the meeting will be to set the u.s. intensions and priority and be clear about the concerns that the u.s. has the people's republic of china. it is to responsibly manage competition and cnbc's christina will key that the president does not want conflict with china, but the u.s. believes such guardrails are needed to defend a world based order. so such an interesting conversation going to be taking place on monday evening. the white house confirming so we will see how that goes down, scott, when it happens in just a few days >> we look forward to that, kayla tausche with that breaking news for us in washington, d.c let's set the market for you
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we are at the highs of the day and we are still working on what would be an end to the five-week winning streak for stocks. there's your dow, 187. we're right around the highs there and the s&p 500 up for three-quarters of 1% nasdaq outperforming today and trying to get to the 1% level and the russell which has been doing quite well lately, too, is flat our big question and i mentioned this at the top. is this the week, josh, that we will look back and say we confirmed the rally or we questioned it? and i pose it to you that way because we did have the hottest inflation read in some 30 years. they were higher today than we were post-cpi. that's got to tell you something and the other side of the coin is, okay, it means that rates which we're going up this week may continue to do so and that may put at least a damper on stocks which side are you on? >> well, i think the way the market seems to be interpreting the very hot inflation read is that it's backward looking and
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probably a lot of it is, and if you think about the big concern going into the last couple of weeks when earnings season started it was that this is the quarter where we're really going to see those inflation pressures felt in the bottom lines of america's largest corporations in fact, that's want what hap happened in fact, there was commentary from industry leaders and analysts and economists about all of the various -- all of the various costs that were going higher everything from labor to raw materials to the transportation of goods, et cetera, but in the end, q3 right now and we're through most of the largest companies looks like it's tracking 12.9% net profit margins. so if you think about that versus the five-year average of just under 11%, we're doing better than most people thought we would, but we're doing better from a net profit margin perspective than during the last
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five years the story of q3 earnings is that companies have been able to pass through those costs. now this is where people get really upset so i'm going to say something that will ameliorate that. of course, that can't continue into infinity and we can't relentlessly have higher costs and continue to pass them on before something breaks. everybody agrees on that so the question you have to ask yourself is whether or not the hiring will pick up and some of those employment cost pressures will subside and not that salaries are going lower, but the rate at which they've been increasing will subside and that's reasonable to say i also think it's reasonable to say that commodity price inflation typically ends because somebody says, you know what that's a lot of money to be made i think i'm going to supply that market, and it's reasonable without the inflation situation. you understand that the fed is now on track to slow down what it's been doing and they told us
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they would and you also understand that a lot of the imbalances related to the re-opening are going to ease and that's a gradual process and it's not an overnight flip the switch, we beat inflation and it stands in everyone'smind is that -- wow, companies made it through and that's what's being reflected in the all-time record highs of all major averages. >> it's hard to think that you can come away with this week and say anything other than the rally was confirmed. the fact that -- if i had told you in the beginning of the week we'll see this monster hot read on inflation and yet on friday we'll be higher than where we were post that read, you probably would have said i don't think that's the case, but here we are what's the message in that >> i might have said that's the case it appears that this market and investors are looking beyond the headlines.
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we have a glass half full and by that i mean not so much inflation type of environment. whatever the numbers when we think about 2022 the consensus believes that those inflation numbers are going to start to moderate and we've seen that in some sectors and there's a belief that as covid vaccinations ramp up around the world we'll have better prospects of delivery of goods and services from factories where there are shutdowns in taiwan, the philippines, ports in sing mapore and long beach that's what the market wants to believe except on the days that the market goes down a percent or the nasdaq drops 1.5% and so we have those days and then the narrative is different, but what is the overriding concern in the market is the following. we know there's a lot of demand. there is huge demand on the consumer side and the industrial side and when there is an opportunity to buy stocks that
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people like that have dropped a few percentage points because there's a little bit of a pause in concern then rush in the buyers and we see those numbers rush back up on the price of stocks because we believe there's enough demand that will maintain an interest in higher levels of sales, profits, margins as josh said and not worry so much about inflation. i don't know whether that's true i think there's inflation that we should worry about in certain areas, but this is what continues to drive the market higher >> okay. steve weiss. so ubs today says inflation may lift volatility, but it's not going to derail the rally. we expect the fed will err on the side of caution as well and remain patient on rate rises no game changer this week, though if i tell you, okay, the stock market got through this week okay despite the cpi, but rates
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did rise and they will continue to rise from here and that is the most critical question, some of the high-profile guests that we have during the tenth anniversary and we talked about it including david tepper. i don't love any asset class at the current level, but if interest rates are going stay around here, stocks can go up. well, what if they don't remain around here from here? look he still has that view and the nasdaq can be up 10% i don't know that this week was confirming anything. what it confirmed to me is that the market is data dependent as is the fed we saw that with the big inflation print on wednesday and by the way, that also bounced back because the ten-year is artificially suppressed in terms of the yield because there was a massive short covering and it's not hyperbole and there's a big
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bounceback and where are we? we are back to where we are in the 10-year. not that long ago, a week and a half ago or so and as long as it stays under control, to me what's driving it is not the monthly prints that we see on inflation numbers or unemployment it's what toyota said today and toyota said we'll be back to full production because we see the supply chain easing up so the market, that's why in my view, semis are up today and the nasdaq is up today despite you seeing a slit uptick in yields so that is the most important element. to me, the fed can't control the inflation. they'll be patient and i do believe a lot of it is transitory, but nonetheless, labor costs are not transitory you can't go to somebody and say i gave you this 10% raise and i'm taking it back now and the supply chain is kicking in again, and how that's going to
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hurt the market and so were they pricing power? i think it looks good and it's a good play to go. i think it's a momentum-driven market both on the upside as well as the down side. so if a company misses it's punitive >> let me ask you this it makes no difference that we don't care about the fact that they may have to taper quicker or raise rates sooner if inflation continues to be where it is or dare i say get worse from here? >> nobody suggested that in the context of this conversation today and the market, if it was worried about that certainly isn't showing it >> let me tell you why because information flows so quickly to me, in my view, the base case now is that the fed starts in june tapering and it spiked what the fed said and because this dialogue really seeps down into the market ask becomes the new benchmark that the market's okay
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with it. if you pulled it forward to march. so your question, the market would care if you pull it forward to march, but june, march got comfortable with it and it will not be 50 or 75 dips and it will be a very manageable 25 dips. so i say that's the new bar that we're dealing with right now >> dr. j, in the context of where we and are where we go from here we digest inflation last week and we get through it, pretty good. we may not beable to continue the winning streak we've been on, but that's okay, the market probably needed to take a breather anyway. we do have to consider where we want to be positioned, and i look at a bank of america flow show and you had the largest outflow from tech since june i wonder what the message in that is, too the nasdaq's outperforming today. do we need to think about the longevity of the techtrade in an environment where rates may
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continue to go up? clearly, some institutions are and they're raising cash from tech >> yeah. as you know, you're talking to the guy on the panel that is the heaviest into tech, scott. >> that's why i asked you. >> exactly, because you're a pro! apple making a really nice move today on solid volume. same thing with microsoft. obviously tesla has a deal with elon musk's tweets and his polls and occasional sales now, as well, but other than that, tech is just fine, scott, and i think we will continue to do just fine in fact, we just shot over to preshant and his team and the s&p 500 that just showed 73,000 calls being bought at the december 472 strike.
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that's only about 1.5, 1.7% out of the money right now certainly, we could get there like that, but that's a big $29 million bet because those were $4 options and they bought 73,000 of them and they're controlling $3.4 billion worth of stock for that purchase, so i would stack that up against some of the outflows perhaps that retail has taken versus a big institutional size trade like this that says we're going higher into december and like i say, that's a pretty big bet i want to ride with those big bets rather than people that are not dumb, but that are bakley balancing their positions, perhaps. this is the end of the year and i'll ride this thing higher and thanks what that bet told me and i'm all of the more comfortable with my tech bet right now >> that's why i posed the question the way i did at the top of the show whether it confirms or questions the move
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in the overall market. the nasdaq being where it is seems to me to be yet another signal that we're only confirming the rally this week if we're able to withstand the kind of move that we saw in rates and what may continue to go from here and the nasdaq may get a 1% gain on the day that needs to be viewed as nothing but bullish. >> yeah. i just feel like the nasdaq is highly dominated by 5 it 10 very large companies and so what you're seeing there may not be that great of an indicator for the rest of the portfolios unless you're in the cues specifically because when you look at some of the technology stocks that have been struggling, there's really no balance in sight for any of them twitter and snap look like tech on toast zillow look doesn't look like it's bottomed yet. >> i don't want to talk about
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peloton. >> carrie is here. i don't want to upset her on friday >> carrie, i love you i'm sorry. >> me, too >> i look at that and it makes me happy not because i like people to hughes money on any stocks, but because i like that there's dispersion and we're not just unilaterally buying stock for no reason blindly. there are companies that are struggling and not doing as well as the larger name with the nasdaq and with good reason, they're not going up and then you look at the technology names that are doing way better than the faangs in terms of growth rate look at unity. these stocks are making crazy moves and unity is up 5% on the day and so you have that dispersion even within tech. it is very healthy i like to see it even when it works against me that's a very large technology stock.
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>> i want to go there next >> that's exactly what i want to do, though, and i want it to segway to paypal and it's the third nasdaq 100 stock this week >> consider this your segway the stock is a buy i own it in the 00s, but i might add to it. the stock is a buy and it's going up i know it's had a very, very tough couple of months, but understand this -- if you talk about what are the companies in the nasdaq right now that are not yet a trillion, but plausibly have a big enough hand, big enough cash flows and flexibility and a large enough brand name to somehow get there. this is one of those names paypal has accepted by 75% of the 1500 largest merchants in the world. 416 million active users right now including 383 million of them are consumers this is the most accepted digital wallet that exists and
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they are transforming from just being payments into what we call financial super apps there's only going to be room for a couple of financial super apps that do everything from lending, trading and insurance and paypal has a shot to be that most consumers don't have seven apps on the front page of their iphones. qr code business, payment by qr code, by gangbusters buy now, pay later this thing is in its infancy, there are opportunities that don't want an all-time ridiculous high. this is the type of thing that if i'm not exposed enough to large-cap growth that's somewhere where you can look. >> carrie, he's speaking your language now >> i love it i love it. >> exactly
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yes, i dolove you, and i thank you for that because paypal is a buy here we have owned paypal for years we have sold it and we think it's attractive and the market right now punishes anything that comes out than slightly less than what is the most grandiose guidance could be and that happened with paypal and think about what's going on. 30% growth in transactions they've signed a deal with amazon and venmo and that's going to be an incredible catalyst for business over the next few years venmo is now enormous. three years ago, what was venmo's somebody's idea and sort of a weird name. i think that paypal is exactly as josh pointed out the kind of company that could be a trillion dollar business. market cap just like sales force is that kind of company, too, and we think those stocks still have lots of legs. it's been hurt the stock is way down and we think this is a great
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opportunity to buy now honestly. i think paypal is a great opportunity. >> you guys are moving it to the highs of the day that's better than 3% right now. steve weiss, was that you trying to get in before i sent it over to carrie? >> yeah. i think -- i think josh's view is way too narrow. look at the smh. that's trading at a high and that's likine intel and it's not apple. it's not amazon. it's technology overall, that's what's driving it so don't have such a narrow view in terms of paypal, i'm looking at it and i'm not there yet, it makes sense and the earnings growth is amazing and it is also a more competitive space now than it has been in the past so some things have changed and the question is have they navigate the competition and the pricing power doesn't stay with them anymore and it stays with the ones using paypal who have had more leverage now than they have in the past. i haven't done enough work
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one more thing, scott. i do have a small position and scott mentioned it in unity and you have two companies that are in the metaverse driving it. one is, of course, epic games and the other is unity so you've got to own one of them >> uniuty is up 7% back to paypal let's put that back up because you guys are definitely moving that stock dr. j, you don't own it, but you like the space you just choose to play in the square sandbox instead of paypal why? >> i took profits on paypal when it ran to the upside, scott and even this week when they announced that amazon was going to take venmo for payments i still had it into that this week in the after hours and luckily, it made a nice pop into the 230 or more high perhaps it was each above that, but then they came out and warned on the guidance going forward and that's when the
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stock cratered back down so when i got out of it i should have bought it back, of course, at 200 when it got there i didn't do that and obviously regret it now because it's higher, but still nowhere near the levels i got out maybe we go on a buying spree here, scott where they do focus as josh and carrie and stephen have said on this particular name, and if they do, i probably won't jump back in unless there's a lot of upside call buying i'll wait and i'll try to be patient and get it back around that 200 level. >> we'll keep watching that for the rest of the program and give you updates as we continue to see shares of paypal move on the bullish stock. the other is clearly j&j, splitting into two businesses starting on "squawk box" this morning. how lucky we are to have you, carrie, today. you used to run the health care and biotech fund at fidelity so i want your perspective
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what would the fidelity fund manager focused on this space think of a move like this with this name? well, you have to be positive if j&j, is one-third consumer and the consumer side has been a drag on a multiple and i think on the universe of potential buyers and analysts who follow the stock. it's a hybrid company, and the world is much more specialized in the way we look at dumps and the way people analyze and talk about them and own them have become so this breakup, i think is only for the positive for j&j consumer staples and neutrogena, they have many good staple businesses within that umbrella, but if you think about where on the health care side there's potential for multiple expansion
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and biotech is the highest multiple group within health care i mean, generally it is and if jnj can command a multiple that is 25 to 30 on that business, pharmaceutical business may be lower, but they're going to position themselves as higher growth and more on the biotech -- biopharma side. think about the vaccine that was produced i call that biotech even though pfizer has one, but it's cutting edge and it's new-age biology and chemistry and therefore this should be positive for owners of the stock, and i think it's the move it's where we're going we saw this with ge. we'll see it with either companies. you know, they glob everything together and then they break apart. >> the hope, dr. j is that you get an avid and abv situation whatever j&j, ends up being.
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say an abbott is up 600% since that split and it's been a win-win for shareholders in both and i'm somewhat surprised to hear from your notes from our producers today that you are somewhat skeptical that this is the right move why do you think that? >> well, sometimes obviously a lot of this j&j, i think, is because of that talcum issue, the powder and the lawsuits that were around that versus their medical side of their business, scott, but this is one of those companies where, yeah, they'll try to release some extra value by doing this. we know third point is going after royal dutch/shell, obviously a completely different sector and to try to release some of that value and to me it didn't make johnson & johnson more interesting than they have before i'd trade this one, but it's not a core holding of mine
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>> steve weiss, what do you think of this? >> it's a great move and both to shield the assets in the pharma area and because of the talcum losses and more that are coming. we've seen this. companies do it and this is a high-profile one as was ge, but xpe and that's one of the reasons why i own volkswagen because i think they'll spin out their luxury plans including porsche. you have a slow-growing business in highly competitive areas that doesn't have much ip there versus the pharmaceutical drug business and that is a much better business and potentially faster growing and they're getting penalized for it >> we'll take a break and a rare downgrade for darling nvidia ahead of its earnings next week and we'll take that call and we'll lkta to one making moves in the stock as well we'll do that in two minutes
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welcome back i'm rahel solomon, and here is our cnbc news update at this hour the judge in the wisconsin trial of kyle rittenhouse will not allow the jury to consider a lesser charge in the fatal shooting of joseph rosenbaum
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this comes after the testimony's wrapped up yesterday and for full coverage of the trial involving kyle rittenhouse tune into the news with shepard smith tonight. a court in myanmar will detain and sentence danny fenster to 11 years in prison. the court found him guilty of several charges including incitement and violating counter terrorism law and treason and e sedition >> in an interview lee revealed that she and her friend his racist slurs shouted at them by a passing car and as the vehicle sped off one of the passengers pepper sprayed the group striking lee in the arm. a new version in the lawsuit over subway's tuna now claims lab testing shows it contains animal protein such as chicken, pork and cattle. subway responded in a statement that it will seek to dismiss the quote, reckless and improper lawsuit. you are now up-to-date
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scott, i'll send it back to you. just in time for lunch thank you very much, rahel for that, not really time for our call of the day, nvidia, web bush cutting their rating to neutral and a valuation call josh brown, i'll give you the first crack at this because this is your name and you own this in more ways than one it's a valuation call. there's no negative catalyst and they're up front in saying that. what do we do with this? >> it's one of the most ridiculous things i've ever read so i'm going to quote directly from it so that you understand the degree of -- this is like louis carroll doing semiconductor stock research while typically, we would want to thie a rating change to some sort of negative catalyst, frankly there is none. conditions rather have only improved over the next few months data center and client offers will allow nvidia to again,
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exceed expectations next week and there are a lot more good things and then the problem is that they can't stretch their multiple that they want to assign to it to get to a level where the stock has upside from here, which i understand that, but here's the thing and this guy has a $220 target on it the whole time it ran from 200 to 300. so what are we talking about here my advice, throw the targets out. targets are not useful and just comment on the state of the business and how things are going because, frankly, the market doesn't care about a lot of the ways that stocks like these have historically been valued it's not texas instruments they're not stamping widgets it's a company that's involved literally in the transformation of the world, the next phase -- the fourth industrial revolution is marrying the physical world to the digital world that's what us and our children are all about to live through.
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you may say the stock is expensive here and i would agree with you, but let's not act like it has to conform to the way that you analyze intel and analog devices and whatever else this is a very, very different story, and i think it deserves a different level of respect when we try to figure out what it's worth today and what it could be worth tomorrow >> all of that taken into consideration, and i think our viewers and many of whom may have followed you into this name and some who did are very happy and they're tweeting about it as we speak, but what do we do with the fact that it's up 50% in three months >> you don't have any -- >> you don't sit back and say -- >> but i could have said that at any point. the stock's up 1 hun%. i'm in this stock long enough. i think it's a 1400% higher. at any point that could have been the argument to sell, and i'm not saying people shouldn't sell if this stock has grown to become an outsized position
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within your portfolio to the point where a down 20% day after an earnings disappointment which is entirely feasible would hurt you then, yes, you should take some off, but not because somebody felt like i might as well downgrade it because it went up so much. come up with a reason to right size your position by the way, it's entirely possible nvidia trades lower after its earnings you have never heard me come on the show and say buy it because of the earnings. i have no edge on what the earnings would be. i never said i did, i'm just saying there's got to be a better reason to buy and sell things than what i said earlier. >> cramer's comments today were the same ask it sounds a lot to me, steve weiss, how he describes apple. you know, if the stock goes up a lot you may be tempted to sell a little bit and his point is own it, don't trade it and similarly this morning you sell it and try to get back in
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it's too hard. that's a game i can't play cramer can't play that game, who the heck can play that game? is that the way we should look at this? >> no, cramer's playing that game with walmart. he took some off and he'll get back in. what josh said to me is the thing that's scariest about this market to say that you should not have any investment discipline on valuation. forget what his price target is and he's had a buy on and he's had discipline and he's saying i can't just spike on further and we take profits all of the time. to say that this is a special case, forget about valuations, and rivian, and if all of these rivians and n vividias should be sold you have to have a discipline of investing and i applaud the analyst for selling it he's not saying it can't go up further and it's clear, but at some point you have to say, look, i've got to look at these names and i've got to again,
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he's got discipline and it's not pie in the sky and it's going to grow forever it may, but we're in a moment of time here with some of these names with the gamestops which is still $200 and with rivian which is absolutely asinine where it is and you can't say that on everything you just can't and you can't criticize somebody for having a different discipline than you have period >> i'm going to give josh the floor to respond to you. >> i lose, steve, but i did not say any of those words they just put into my mouth. >> i paraphrased and took what you said in 15 minutes in two minutes. >> no, you invented a strong man to argue against i didn't say valuation >> you like to say that. >> you like to say that, but i don't ever say valuation didn't matter my point was different he didn't say sell it. he cut it to a neutral which in my world i don't know what neutral means.
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you either buy or sell. >> that's my point. >> he raised his target. listen to me now, from 220 to 300, and then set on downgrading it that's what's ridiculous to me and i'm not saying valuation doesn't matter i'm saying the valuation on the stock historically has not and currently should not correspond to the way we're valuing a run of the mill semiconductor company that is not involved in the end markets that nvidia is involved in. that's a different argument, my friend >> you just said valuation doesn't matter nvidia, but it matters elsewhere. >> no, i didn't. >> you just said that, josh. sit back >> you were, josh, and get the point across >> it has yet to come out of my mouth. listen, i know you think you're scoring points here. i agree with you that valuation matters. i'm saying cutting a stock simply because it won't conform to a narrative that you have based on other companies that you think it should be related
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to is probably not great advice and my evidence for that is what this stock has done the entire way up it's been expensive every day of my life and your life for the last five years. it's never been cheap. that's not -- that is not actually been the determinant of where the share price goes so, look, they can come out. they can disappoint. maybe the guidance isn't great the stock will get hammered. i agree with that idea, so i do think people should manage risk and manage positions, i just don't think arbitrary price targets are helping anyone >> josh, really, we only have until 1:00. when you said it's never been cheap and i equate that with valuation. >> when has it been a cheap stock. >> josh, let me finish josh, let me finish. some stocks hold valuations are very high. we have amazon that's doing it and netflix did it for a while until it grew to its valuation
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the market's full of it. i own unity and i don't own it on valuation and i own it because it's one of two primary assets on the show right now. >> does that get an exception? >> he made a call, there's a scarcity of the asset there. nvidia owns the data center, they own gaming, but others will be there so i have nothing wrong with it. i owned nvidia calls i told them because the time value was eroding and i'd like to go back in and i think go higher, what i was taking exception to even though you keep denying it, but you keep using the word not cheap that's valuation we have to be careful in terms of what we communicate >> he articulated. >> there are stocks that are not cheap either so i don't understand your point. every stock you own a value stock? >> i don't own stocks like that. >> dr. j, you get the last word. >> thank you the single easiest thing to do
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here, scott, is if anybody has a little bit of acumen which both of these as well as carrie do, both of these two gentlemen, is you keep rolling your calls up because that way you're constantly pulling money off the table and then you're rolling up to a higher strike price you're never going to have that 20% drawdown that josh talks about if you do that instead you're going to be riding it as it keeps climbing you have a limited risk trade on that's what options were made for. this kind of stock, tesla, anything that makes these sorts of, you know, astronomically fantastic rides, you want to be rolling -- rolling those options, that's what we do that's when smart people would do to cut risk in this position. i agree with both of them, though, you don't just go out and sell the stock because it hits a number. >> sure. all right. let's do this. let's take a break and we'll talk about the aforementioned
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rivian today and it is for the third straight day josh brown, a i mentioned to you the other day spoke to kathy wood about that stock and we will get more lor omcofr the trv, the reformed broker and we'll debate it on the desk and we'll do that next
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rivian is rallying for a third day now and the ipo priced at 78 and now trading near $130. josh brown, what i really want to do was give you a chance to expand on this conversation you had with kathy wood down at the conference that you were speaking at where she brought up or rivian came up and she said can't deal with that valuation which some on twitter were, like, cathie wood, if it's too rich for her then maybe it's too rich for everybody expand on that and what your biggest takeaways were from a conversation from someone that a lot of people like to hear from. >> first of all, i want to thank cheryl penny and dynasty financial partners for having me at their investment forum and putting me in position to sit with cathie and the way her mind
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works i think she is a remarkable person. her comment was contrary to the way i invest is the hurdle rate and a potential stock investment has to pass in order for us to add it to the portfolio. so i think her concerns had nothing to do with rivian's product or its outlook, but how do you make money from a starting valuation of $60, $70 billion even if you're attempting to value that company on 2025 revenues and earnings. that still is too much of a stretch. so i think that was the extent of her thinking there. however, you know, there have been some very expensive and some very well-liked companies that have had blow-ups over the last couple of years where she's come in and stepped after. so i wouldn't rule out the possibility of this becoming arc's portfolio at some point. but i just think the way it's coming to market, look, there's good reason it's starting with this valuation just look at the overall
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environment. look at the gains and lucent and tesla and look at how much capital is available with the companies and although they have no revenues, they have orders from amazon and the backing of ford and it's not a fly by night situation that people are hyped about nothing. so i understand what's happening with the story this is a company that started 12 years ago the founder has dedicated his life to this he's not quite like an elon musk figure, but he is in many ways equally visionary and the important thing here is he's going directly for the most important spot within autos. he's doing a pickup and he's doing an suv that's 72% of the market goldman sachs thinks by 2040 half of the cars sold will be electric vehicles, new cars sold so the tam is enormous and we don't know if the company can execute and we don't know if they can manufacture, and we don't know if they can do a lot
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of the things they have to do to justify the revenue the market's assigning. >> want to get a comment from jon najarian and maybe your move this week is the most interesting of all that pete got an allocation in the ipo you did not, and you bought this stock on the open market that fascinates me in and of itself >> well, you and i talked yesterday about why i couldn't get an allocation because i serve on that public board. >> sure. and until i'm off of there i can't do it. nonetheless, hat's off to pete and i wish i was in at the price he was in at and i liked it so much because of what you and i talked about these evs and it's not just the vehicle, of course it's not just neo and tesla and so forth it's blink and all of that that's part of this infrastructure bill, the been that's already been passed and will be signed on monday
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>> and it is so pertinent to the debate that we just had on nvidia which morphed into a greater conversation about valuation and when it matters and when it might not matter for lack of a better description and a spirited debate that i think our viewers got something out of how should we context when we a now talking about something with revenues of, i don't know, none yet, and we have $100 billion valuation, doc >> they have - >> right, well - >> -- orders >> i know this have orders - >> and josh is right, they have - >> they have orders, but it is still $100 billion >> they have orders, josh is right. they also have an approach that's very similar to tesla's that's going to be making their own batteries as well, scott now, none of that happens like, you know, thanos snapping his fingers. nonetheless, i think it is a
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very hot sector. i get in it through the stock, and it has, knock on wood, made a very nice move this week then when we get these options and they become, i think, one of the most liquidly traded in the ev space, perhaps only to tesla, will they be behind that then i think i will be able to do what i said, put on a call spread, roll it up, put on a call spread, roll it up. if it goes against me i only lose the price of the cost spread, i won't like 20% of $130 if, indeed, that $26 drop happened >> weiss, i see you just sold ford why did you do that? >> right well, i bought ford for a trade based on the rivian valuation, and maybe i made a nickel on it. i sold it. i bought it for a trade with defined period of time and that's it. i love the rivian product. i wanted to buy an suv but i couldn't get delivery before i needed a car, and i think it will do well but you know what? everything has value it is like i've got this swatch,
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daytona watch, you can't buy them you know, i want another one, i could pay double what it is but i would rather not at the same time i'm not selling the one that i have. so it is all what you value things at and stock is no different. i don't see the value in rivian here >> that's fine i want to know more about ford >> i just told you >> that was it it was just a trade, that's it >> it was just a trade >> it has a lot of momentum. i mean it is an interesting time to sell it, eastboven if it wast for a trade. >> you know, if i didn't own such a slug of volkswagen and po porsche maybe i would have heel it >> we have more activity on the other side of the break. before we board. excellent. and you have thinkorswim mobile- -so i can finish analyzing the risk on this position. you two are all set. have a great flight.
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all right. dr. j, unusualactivity what do you have >> well, this one will put a smile on josh's face i am adding to live nation i bought it in the, you know, high 80s, early '90s kept rolling, rolling, rolling, the same thing a broken record here, scott, but they came in and they were buying the april 115 calls today with the stock at 112. second trade quickly, affirm, afrm this one is the february 150s. the stock had fallen to about 145 or so. it is starting to move back up i bought those calls, probably be in them three months. >> we will bouncto ae break
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our own kari firestone has a new op-ed piece on how you can hunt for bargains in the market even though averages are hovering at record highs give me averages on that before we do final trade. >> thanks, scott 16% of the s&p is below 15% below its 2021 high. they're in all sorts of sectors.
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over the years those stocks tend to outperform the following year and that's what it is about. >> let's push everybody to check it out on carrie, give us a final trade. >> visa is one of the stocks that's down. it has two strong things, inflation, and people traveling overseas that is positives over the next several years >> still a minute left josh brown, what do you have for us in finals >> i picked something that wouldn't trigger steve weiss again. general motors, great trend, stock is acting very well. cheap valuation relative to lucid and tess lay take a look at it. >> okay. somebody on twitter suggested that maybe general motors should spin out its ev unit to try to inlock value people are thinking about these kind of things >> it would be worth $100 billion. >> yeah. steve weiss? >> yeah. i like volkswagen better, josh, so sell your gm. my final trade is fedex. nice bounce off the bottom i
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think keeps going. >> dr. j., why do you finish it up >> scott, jw nordstrom you get to play this one into black friday it is all the way out in december at the 35 strike. i bought the calls during the show >> i appreciate it hope you have a great weekend. thanks for watching. looks like we will break the winning streak for stocks, we will see though. "the exchange" begins right now. ♪ and thank you, scott welcome, everybody i'll alyssa lee. here is what is ahead. stick a fork in the tech trade, that's wells fargo's new message to investors following this week's inflation data. we will speak to the strategist behind the call on where to invest right now plus, green thumb, green stock shares of green thumb jumping after doubling products, the company continuing to scale its business in the u.s. we will speak to the ceo about the state of the industry. earnings exchange from preprofit companies to american staples to high-growth names we have the action, the story and the trade on we work, walmart an


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