tv Closing Bell CNBC November 19, 2021 3:00pm-5:00pm EST
so companies like united masters have deals in place so they can help the artists get the advantages of scale of working with a larger company. >> the moment i have been waiting for. >> yes. >> this weekend -- recording some songs. >> all right why yeah. record, distribute oh boy thank you for watching "power lunch." >> "closing bell" starts right now. >> thank you happy friday welcome to "closing bell." i i'm sara eisen here at new york stock exchange the dow is pulling back. the nasdaq is jumping. could close at a record yield. >> i'm brian sullivan in for wilfred frost once again coming headlines from europe sending the market lower this morning. austria will go to a lockdown. germany, as well house of representatives passing
the biden social spending bill waiting for the pick on fed chair. energy the worst performing sector as prices fall on a release of the spr much more on that ahead. coming up, investor dan niles with a big, new call on 2022 he will join us first with that. two payment stocks he said will be long term winners foot locker with a wild week stock plunging today after warning of supply chain headwinds. we'll talk to the ceo dick johnson about how much the issues could last. >> we have more coming up but let's focus on the big stories today. you have mike tracking the market action. meg tirrell on rising covid concerns mike, what are you watching today and all week long? >> it is a consistent story all
week which is you have a handful of large, stable growth stocks people go to when they feel defensive about the economic prospects that are rising and supporting the s&p 500 around the 4700 level you have negative breadth, more stocks down than up. but in the two-week cooling off period period two weeks ago the jobs friday. this reacceleration peak really nothing to worry about on the index level and been attrition in terms of the growth growth versus value. we have in there a measure of the cloud to software stocks as a gauge of the longer term high valuation secular growth names you see growth blasted off value retraced
not having a lot of headway on an overall basis since that august peak and the cloud names underperforming. seems like it's the cash flow stocks and then nvidia and the ev names driving this move into growth you couldn't really lose this year in an outright basis but it's been still those huge growth stocks that have provided most energy in the last phase of the rally. speaking of really the big buzzy growth stocks. qualcomm versus nvidia this is back to when nvidia went public in 1999 the action these days reminds of a qualcomm at the end of the tech bubble. 1999 the year 1999. for qualcomm up 2,000% nothing like that in terms of a
vertical move for nvidia but to get back to the year of 2000 peak about 20 years. also not a prediction here nvidia is right now about 65 times, 60 times forward earnings qualcomm cot there right about there. you can be correct about the huge moves and what matters in chips and still once it gets to a certain near term peak you don't know how much the priced in. >> thank you see you soon. turning to the latest on the virus. the fda making a big move on booster shots as europe deals with a jump in cases meg? >> hey, sara the fda clearing boosters for all adults over 18 at least 6 months out from the second shot. the cdc advisory committee is debating to recommend that right
now. let's tell you about what's happening in europe. see the cases spiking in several countries led by austria implementing that nationwide lockdown the blue line there. the netherlands, germany, finland also seeing the massive spikes cases going vertical it is not just cases to see in the countries rising hospitalizations and deaths also following suit you can see again austria leading the way. this is leading them to recommend use of anti-viral drugs like merck even though it is not approved there. there's talk about what's happening in europe. they mentioned that in the cdc advisory meeting on the booster doses and seem in favor of making them available and debating how strong the recommendation should be and essentially if they should say that everybody over 50 should get a booster or may get a
booster. so that's the status right now we expect a vote any time now to make this official and then go to the cdc director to sign off and then anybody over 18 and 6 months out can get the booster. >> dr. fauci is warning of the rising hospitalizations among vaccinated people and makes you wonder why it took until now in the cdc and the fda to open up boosters to everyone when we had the data showing the waning immunity why did it take so long? >> yeah. if you listen to the committee meetings both at the fda and the cdc there was concern it wasn't universally needed and why they narrowed it to people over 65 and didn't see in the data that there was a need for younger, healthier people to be boosted and a worry about the risk of myocarditis. they seem to have changed the minds about the overall broad
profile in favor of everybody being able to get a booster. >> thank you keep us posted on that result. still ahead on the show, talking about lockdowns and boosters when we are joined by panel member dr. ofer levy who will the fed chair pick and what each candidate could mean for your money you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.
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welcome back to "closing bell." we have confirmed the identity of the person who bought a rare copy of the u.s. constitution outbidding a group of crypto investor just leslie picker is on the cnbc news line with the details. was it you >> it was not me unfortunately i don't have an extra $43 million to put towards this it was none other than ken griffin who is the founder of -- >> wow. >> -- he has won this $43 million first edition copy of the u.s. constitution from the sotheby's auction that took place yesterday. what he plan to do it? he plans to lend it to an arkansas art museum for public display why what's remarkable about this, of course, it is the last remaining first edition constitution that now is in
private hands, although as i mentioned he intends to allow it for public display at an art museum so mystery solved. it is ken griffin who won this first edition copy of the u.s. constitution paying $3 -- $43 million for it. >> i have a more important question for it. do we know which of his $100 million properties this will go in new york apartment palm beach mansion chicago penthouse. >> public display. public display. >> where >> an arkansas art museum. as long as you can hop a plane to arkansas you, too, can view this. >> i think he wanted to outbid the crypto community trolling the trolls and aping the apes, right? >> it is given the events of
this year, you know, mystery solved it is ken griffin that prevailed this time. >> thank you for phoning in. >> got to be the walmart the museum there backed by the walmart family i imagine. >> a lot of things in arkansas. >> yeah. they have the money. >> with the u.s. constitution copy, $43 million. investors await president biden's fed chair nomination the white house saying this afternoon there will be more to report early next week on that matter let's bring in a guest before we go to the parlor game of who might be the next fed chair on the news today which is moving markets a bit, talk of faster taper we heard from a fed governor and vice chair that said it's something to talk about. is that something you expect the fed to do, to speed up the taper
given the hot inflation numbers? >> i think this is an important development today. right? governor waller is carving out a reputation as a prominent hawk on the fed board so it's not that surprising that he should be advocating for a faster taper but to have the vice chair come out with that message depending on the data between now and then they should be discussing the possibility of an accelerated taper is new and different to what i expected and we have to taken it seriously. i think that we have to see further significant upside surprises in the data to get the fed to speed up the taper to december but clearly it is not out of the realm of possibility right now. >> how's -- the market was
already weak the dow and the s&p. cyclicals areas in europe and the return of lockdowns but how do you think the market would take it if the idea gains traction, a faster taper into a fifth wave of covid? >> i'm not -- i don't think this is something that would be risk friendly by any means look i think if they accelerate the taper in december you're going to get a frenzy of speculation on a q2 rate hike. right? and i think you're also running some greater risk that you end up with some kind of taper tantrum in the bond market after all the efforts to prevent that from happening so look. the fed has to be responsive to the ev ligs of the data but
accelerating the tauper means that they're essentially giving up on the idea that they should take at least the first couple of quarters of this year to get a sense of where the data is settling before they make any big judgment calls in terms of the right strategy on rates. that starts the ball rolling in an appreciably more hawkish direction. >> yeah. we have a tweet from lloyd blankfein of goldman sachs when rates normalize the risk of a crisis is way high powell and brain around are close on policy. the leadership was tested. brainard is not tested the same way. powell a much safer choice as a critical moment. do you agree powell is the safer -- maybe not better but safer choice also, do you think the risk of a market crisis is high when rates normalize? >> i think from a market
perspective powell probably is the safe choice. right? now, whether president biden is solving for what's a safe choice for you and me and our friends in the market is a different question president biden presumably has other priorities in mind making that pick but i do think that the powell pick is the low risk pick as far as the market's concerned. relative to brainard look brainard is highly qualified and might well make a very good fed chair. i think the market's initial response would be to see her by reputation as someone who's dovish so that would tend to be a curve steepener. i suspect the equity market tends to trade this off out of uncertainty how to run the fed and greater risk that she would
be tested by the markets i don't think brainard is any kind of crazy dove i think she would tact to the center quickly to establish the credentials in the market and clear a pathway to confirmation. >> she doesn't speak out that often. she was on this show fed governor brainard and asked her about inflation in april listen to what she said and characterized the inflation and the economy. >> there are some unique factors this year that could be expected to push flakes above 2% this year obviously there are those base effects to drop out and see inflation on a 12-month basis jumping up in april and may and then as the economy opens up and see that pent-up con survegs coming into the services sector and more broadly in the economy,
we could expect to see bottlenecks in supply chains to contribute to some increase in inflation for a period of time but it is important to recognize that those are transitory and following the transitory pressures associated with reopening it is more likely that is entrenched inflation dynamics for well over a decade will take over, then a sustained surge in inflation for a persistent period. >> to be fair that was back in april. inflation gotten hotter and lasted longer. she was firmly in the transitory camp and the accommodation camp. were you fade a move if she was named fed chair and how
ultimately do you think that would shake out? >> i wouldn't push the super dovish brainard trade too far. i think the market will price some in that direction to begin with but i think -- look. brainard has obviously learned a lot about the inflation dynamics and outlook since she made those remarks that haven't aged very well but i think that she would be quite a lot more balanced today, in particular, if she shifted to the role of fed chair where it's not just about putting forward your own views but being able to sort of manage the committee as a whole. now, i think the issue around brainard is specifically that she's putt a lot of weight on the employment side of the mandate and specifically the idea that you're not back to
maximum employment which is a trigger condition for raising rates unless you've achieved the level of jobs of february of 2020 my own view is that if nominated as chair she's going to soften that view and say that that's a reasonable aspiration but the truth is that we don't know, at least over a period of a year or so, exactly how many folks are going to come back and look for jobs so we should think about an aspirational goal, not 1-0 go-no go for raising rates. >> it is a global bond market and it is not just our fed that matters. right? you have the uk, the eu, the bank of china, the bank of japan. if other central banks get tighter on the monetary and/or fiscal policy will the u.s. be
forced to reabct if the data doe not merit it at the times? >> i think it goes the other way. >> right normally does. >> europe is more dovish. >> they are for now. you nevada know what can happen because there's comments out of some german ministers to tighter faster. >> you are absolutely right. in this world let's be open to all possibilities but i think at present, right, i would look at it this like the british bank of england will be the first to hike rates probably in december raise rates a few times and the economy doesn't have the same strength of underlying momentum that the u.s. does looking at two or three hikes in the uk and then slowing down a lot to see how things go european central bank is a lock way behind the fed in raising rates both because the inflation dynamics are weaker and they
have a brutal winter wave of covid. so it's actually the fed that's most likely at least on a cumulative basis to be pushing furthest on rates and why the dollar is so strong right now. >> thank you very much do appreciate your views thank you. have a great day and a good weekend. >> thank you take care. after the break, new covid fears ground the airline stocks? our next guest doesn't think so. the analyst that upgraded two american carriers but not american airlines. that'sex nt.
unanimous to vote to expand booster eligibility to all adults six months out from the second dose and took two votes essentially. one to expand it to all adults, they may get the booster, and then recommend people over 50 to get a booster shot trying to clarify the guidelines there. acknowledging that they have been too complicated and meant some people eligible didn't realize it and didn't get boosted. the stocks of vaccine makers up and moderna giving back gains of earlier. now this recommendation from cdc's advisers, next step is cdc director weigh in. it is expected to adopt the recommendation and then everybody is eligible. back to you. >> thank you. airline stocks under some
pressure amid concerns of rising covid cases but the next guest upgraded two american carriers bringing in hunter kay welcome back to "closing bell. listen we can get into the fundamentals of air travel but something in the note caught my eye and nothing to do with people on a plane or whatever. you note that because of some of the government rules executive pay at the airlines capped for a couple years and write stock price appreciation is the best avenue for management to recoup lost compensation. what you are saying is forget about the fundamentals the ceos, they have got a strong incentive to do whatever it takes to get the stock price up. >> yeah. thanks for having me on. hi it is not just the ceos but anybody that made over $420,000
in 2019. vps and some cases others. we call it triage pay and gave stock pay to the executives because they can't pay them more than they made pre-covid they want the stock grants to vest and the only way to do that is to demonstrate things that drive multiples higher which is pricing power. they have a unique set of incentives with the pay they lost. >> do they have the levers to pull to get that stock price up? what can they do unfortunately, what they're probably going to do is not what the passengers want is keep the -- as few planes out there as possible as crowded as possible with pricing power. >> well, you know, we'll see right?
airlines won't kocoordinate to raise price but oil at $100 and paying more than they paid for jet fuel then yeah they try to pass that through and the government has been constantly injecting millions of dollars into this industry with bailouts and that's over now. they cut bad airports that lose money. putting down aircraft with this labor infrastructure in place and now free to make the type of changes that airlines make in downturns like this. if it means price hike they do it every other business does it. >> the group is down 6%. 25% off its highs. covid is back. restrictions are back in europe. is that just an instinct to sell the airlines
does that correlate with lost business >> that's why we upgraded the group because covid is back and because oil prices are higher. airlines have staffing problems and operational problems that they have to think about there's reasons and challenges that they face right now and lockdowns in europe will give the u.s. airlines a scare. so yeah why you see headlines about europe locking down. people sell airline stocks this is a factor driven group. it's fundamental work going on in the space but once airlines make the decisions to resolve around self help you see them disperse within the group and start not being so correlated with other reopening stocks? >> your favorite pick? >> copa airlines they're a machine.
reported earnings on wednesday never seen anything like it. probably alaska. >> i was not expecting that ji i thought love. >> love is good. we had an outperform on alaska. >> got it. thank you. good to see you. >> all right thanks time now for a cnbc news update with rahel solomon. >> hi. the prosecution has rested in the elizabeth holmes fraud trial. they try to prove holmes sought to mislead investors and patients the latest in the trial orr the death of maahmaud arbery in georgia. the defense lawyer said quote this is what a public lynching looks like a new report says up to
14,000 giant sequoia trees burned in the wildfires. they were once thought to believe so massive that they were nearly fireproof. dyson wants you to try the products online. they set up virtual reality demos to get a bet every understanding of the offerings without touching them in stores. sara, back to you. >> that's chapper than a $500 hair trier thank you. no joke. dan niles joins us with the call for why next year market returns could look different 2021 and the ceo of foot locker and the stock slammed right now. down almost 12%. heading to break, a check on bonds. yields are falling hard. 10-year to 1.53.
the nasdaq at record highs 1.54 on the 10-year. we'll be right back. hey lily, i need a new wireless plan for my business, but all my employees need something different. oh, we can help with that. okay, imagine this. your mover, rob, he's on the scene and needs a plan with a mobile hotspot. we cut to downtown, your sales rep lisa has to send some files, like asap! so basically i can pick the right plan for each employee. yeah i should've just led with that. with at&t business. you can pick the best plan for each employee and get the best deals on every smart phone. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this.
earn about covid-19, i'm so glad we did this. the more questions we have. the biggest question now, what's next? what will covid bring in six months, a year? if you're feeling anxious about the future, you're not alone. calhope offers free covid-19 emotional support. call 833-317-4673, or live chat at calhope.org today. getting news on ford and rivian let's get to phil lebeau on the news line. >> ford confirmed that it has dropped plans to jointly develop an electric vehicle with rivian. remember when ford made the initial investment in rivian
back in early 2019 the plan was for ford and rivian while they had their own separate development of electric vehicles taking place to also jointly develop an electric vehicle. and as we reported as the rivian ipo was working through the process and ultimately listed last week it was unlikely that there were ever going to go forward with the plan to do a joint development of an electric vehicle and now confirmation of ford that it does not plan to jointly plan a vehicle with ford ford did not change the stake in rivian ford owns 12% of rivian and no ill will here. this is probably the worst kept secret in the auto industry that they were never going to move forward and clear they would not go forward with the joint development of an ev and have independently both working on an
electric vehicle but ford confirming that the plans for ford and rivian to jointly develop an ev is scrapped. back do you. >> thank you also note cramer made comments about this saying that ford wants to sell the stake in rivian something he reported eand hear >> and selling at the top what ford thinks is the top. >> goes with that. >> it does. we have news on square kate rooney joining us to break that. >> square out with a long awaited white paper on the bitcoin business this business is called tbd. the company said they want to launch a decentralized exchange. they call this tbd dex it is essentially a peer to peer place marketplace. it gets rid of a middleman
this is extremely wonky. really geared to developers looking for feedback posted on get hub which is a developer platform intended to be a first draft here and looking for feedback and it is the first piece of news it's still called tbd. this is tbdex. more to come on this des decentralized business back to you guys >> quick follow up here. how many exchanges do we have roughly? we seem to be getting the announcements fairly often. >> square offers bitcoin buying and selling in the cash app. you have coinbase, robinhood the difference is that it is decentralized they say and
there's unit swap that's a popular one and the idea is it won't have a middleman and going with the core bitcoin ethos here to make it a community developed project versus something out of square and extremely wonky reading through the use cases. fascinating. >> thank you foot locker getting crushed today despite beating estimates expecting supply chain restrictions to persist and the stock is down 11%. joining us is chairman and ceo dick johnson welcome back to the show this was a good quarter on sales. >> it was a good quarter. >> you raised guidance but i guess some concerns come around the guidance raise and the presumed slower growth rate and
worries about the supply chain what is the reaction to the market reaction? >> i sell sneakers i don't try to predict what the market will do we had a great quarter the team did a fantastic i don't know to navigate the challenges. we have been battling supply chain challenges almost a year now so this is not new news and not sure what the reaction is? we worked in the third quarter to get the inventory positioned to start the fourth quarter and did. we were up slightly at the beginning of the fourth quarter now so we feel like we're well positioned for the holiday i made a comment about not having the visibility that we would like to have and seeing the 80 ships docked in long beach and l.a. we know the flow is constrained and don't have the visibility we like but the
inventory to get us started in the quarter and more goods on the way. i'm not sure about the reaction. we feel really good about the quarter we just went through. >> expand on the inventory point. you expect the product on the shelves in time for the holidays >> again, we start with the inventory up from the second quarter and preloaded the inventory. we have got inventory flowing. the production impact of south vietnam will likely be later but we are a multi-branded retailer and have inventory flowing through different ports and ways i feel confident to have products available for the customers. we did in the third quarter. even if the number one choice isn't available they go to the next product and satisfied and coming back in droves.
>> how big of a factor is nike here it is still i think more than 60% of the sales they warned about supply chain in a big way last quarter for the current quarter and wonder if it's an outsized pain point or across the board? >> that is a number one and biggest partner and work closely with them and as we do with the inventory partners they have more visibility than we do seeing it at the factory level but we see the flow and we understand what's coming in from them and seen as we talked about on the call the top vendors with gains in the third quarter there's a multi-branded retailer that we feel great about that position. >> what's going on with market share? an analyst today warned that you
were losing market share to dick's is that what's happening >> we concentrate high on the premium products certainly as we look at the total marketplace with price point changes, the numbers would look like we are losing a couple ticks in market share here and there but as the team ramps up withal with alternative products the customers like what they see and buying in the stores traffic is up. app downloads are up all the indicators are that the customer engagement with the team and the sites in the stores is never higher. >> we appreciate you taking the time to come on today to explain the case >> absolutely why thank you. >> dick johnson, ceo of foot locker. >> have a great thanksgiving. we'll look at how a china
slowdown could impact the energy stock just the tape good for technology not for great for everything else you have the market zone, uninterrupted commercial free coming up on "closing bell." stick around, all you ninjas i'll shoot you an estimate as soon as i get back to the office. hey, i can help you do that right now. high thryv! thryv? yep. i'm the all-in-one management software built for small business. high thryv! help me with scheduling? sure thing. up top. high thryv! payments? high thryv! promotions? high thryv!
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we'll speak with a fda vaccine panel advisory member about the brand new booster guidance but first, we have got about ten minutes left of the trading day. we are in the market zone. cnbc senior markets commentator mike santoli is here. >> you need to go to decaf. >> mike santoli is here. today we have chief u.s. equity strategist jonathan golub. welcome. a mixed picture for stocks covid fears are weighing on the stocks the nasdaq outperforms on track to close above 16,000 first time at a record high mike, this divergence is familiar and the theme this week go to big cap growth names when there are concerns about growth and about the reopening trade. we had the playbook how many times?
>> three major time this is year seen the rotation, the large cap growth stocks insulate from a setback. it's part of a two-week pause. s&p at the 4700 level. for now it seems a rotation as opposed to a real retreat but definitely an ebb in risk appetites. the dow down the nasdaq up more than 1% on the week and the s&p 500 just above the flat line. >> it is amazing to the point. you talk about the playbook now. do you feel like wall street, the traders, everybody else, the apes, retail traders, seeing the headlines of cases and hospitalizations down 50% that everybody retreats to the corner when you don't know what to do you do what you always have done. >> some degree of programmed response no doubt about it. it is about where the incremental dollar is going to flow in general investors are letting
the equity exposure stay high and not getting out of the market in a wholesale way. it is about where you go within it. >> want to switch gears to talk about the sector that's the weakest this week and that's what else, oil and gas the best or worst. never in the middle. certainly a rough week for crude oil considering. still 76 bucks concerns of china, lockdowns, europe, could there be a release of the petroleum storage reserve? stocks down. big cap stocks on average. lost 5% this week. down 7% this month occidental down and macro things and you can comment on concern about the china lockdown to cost maybe the market 500,000
or more barrels per day to use worries of europe. spr thing. here's one thing to think about and remember if we do tap the spr, i can't find any oil research that suggests to do anything for prices medium term. short term it may bring prices down a little bit. if we drained it, drain to quote the -- >> enough? >> 30 days of supply and then refill it. goldman sachs, many others have said if you drain it and that was there will be blood reference, the milk shake, you have to refill it and could be bullish going into next year we have also, mike, sara - >> strong dollar >> the impact. for you i had to you wrote the book. >> reaching new highs. maybe i'll turn to you on this, jonathan dollar at a 16-month high
pressuring the commodities like energy this was the best performing trade of the year. >> no. listen i think energy is going to be a best performing sector for several year just there's such tremendous push for oil companies to return capital back to shareholders and not put it back in the ground this whole movement towards sustainable energy is keeping supply light and with a really hot demand, inflationary environment we think we continue to see good returns in the energy sector not a week or a month but much longer. >> mike, does oil -- i hate to say this because i cover the sector does it matter to the market 4% of the s&p 500 down from 15% a decade ago seems to matter more than it
used to. >> quite a bit to the value trade, to the cyclical parts of the market, and sort of moves in sync with those. it is about what's leading and lagging. but yeah i would say it matters, especially i believe that you had a lot of people join the bullish bandwagon the last few months. >> brian, i want to take a shot on that question on the energy sector at 4% of the market doesn't seem like a lot but represents a huge amount of the market volatility. the stock prices are much more volatile than what you see in health care or technology or discretionary and the like and they do smack the market around much more than the 4% weight and also remember that because they're a low pe sector they represent a larger portion of the earnings than the 4% so it
does matter. >> good to hear. everybody stick around and bring another voice boo the conversation that is some of the travel names today. covid hospitalizations down 50% in america in 2 months seema mody, that is weighing on the travel stocks today. >> we have seen the picture before before countries reintroducing restrictions it is the cruise lines that tend to react first leading us lower today and the week losses of 10% for norwegian. rising cases overseas and sur pridesing the market with an offer to pay down current debt levels it is raising concerns in the market about equity dilution
given the debt they sit on i want to pivot to airbnb. it is lower by as much as 4% today and higher by 15% in the month of november. outperforming hotel stocks that's a familiar picture seen at the height of the pandemic. >> thank you jonathan, do you buy the dip in some of these reopening trades like travel? we are dealing with rising case loads and lockdowns in europe. we are in a different place with tools and vaccines and treatment and knowledge. >> i think that seema raises a good point if people are more spooked whether it's on an airline or cruise line or whatever, personal travel, because of the vaccine, that's kind of one thing. the second issue is how much do we see in terms of economic
weakness i think the economy will be fine will the names that are particularly exposed to covid concern, will they take a near term hit that's a different issue the economy looks strong into next year. earnings look solid. the key is that the cyclical stocks delivering great earnings and stock price didn't keep up and unbelievably cheap unless you think the economy will faulter i think the cyclical trades do well and i do like seema's point. >> quickly, we got to get to mike i apologize. i'm filling in anyway. what can you do? we have pills that are soon to be approved most likely that can basically defeat covid this is not last year. this is not six months ago we have vaccinations
anti-virals. the market seems to forget the key points pills to defeat covid! >> listen. i'm all in on the cyclical trade and the mistake that we're probably making is while listen i love technology and a long term winner but not the big reopening story. they're not the economic reacceleration story you want to play it in ugly, old economy stuff. it is materials and things like that i would absolutely be a buyer today of the cyclical trade because i don't think anybody is changed for exactly the reasons you mentioned. >> got it. jonathan, we'll come back to you. mike, what do you see on the internals? >> this is where you see the
weakness downside on volume that is the case right now take a look at net new lows on the nasdaq right now elevated waiting for a fed chairman nomination and the rest. just below the flat line also just below 4700 ♪ a record close for the nasdaq and just about it welcome back to "closing bell. i'm sara eisen along with brian sullivan in for wilfred frost and mike santoli coming up, noted tech investor dan niles explains why he is bearish on the market and the s&p 500 could see big declines in the new year. jonathan is still with us. mike looking at the weekly tally here on a friday so the dow is down 1.4%.
the nasdaq is up 1.2%. mirror image of each other. >> yeah. that shows you either this elegant rotation with giveback in the cyclicals or a little bit of instability and the average stock coming up in an element of that is most likely a little bit of an undertow of tax loss harvesting this year. stocks down big get sold to work against capital gains you might be having. operates through december. there's a little bit of a winners and losers separation a ten high in the s&p two weeks ago today was 4718 here we are less than half a percent below that and could it as a pause for the market as the average stock regroups. >> we'll bring in another voice and topic and that is talking
about gold gold putting back after hitting the highest level in five months joining us is peter. it is kind of interesting because on a day like today you think gold might catch a bid you got the dollar out there getting stronger every day the fed out there. where do you see gold going? >> definitely the clarida comments that resulted in gold selling off. real rates are very negative the bear case for the dollar in 2021 and underperformed because people thought that inflation is transitory which i think it is not and then the fed will tighten and why should you own gold we were reminded at the fmoc meeting that jay powell will be
very slow in responding to inflation and that real rates probably get more negative and that inflation will run faster than they are in terms of policy and i think a few weeks ago the bottom in gold and silver. a bull run resumed. >> where -- okay where do you see it going? is gold going to be just a place to store money or can you actually make money in gold? >> i think there are times to own gold and not to own gold and i think right now in the inflationary world we are in and interest rates are low and central bank is slow to respond now is the time to own it. >> jonathan, do you agree? you have gold exposure in some picks? >> i'm a stock guy and seeing gold is an asset that doesn't have cash flows underneath it.
i'm a big fan of peter's i think he is right at the extent that the fed is likely to be more dovish rather than not and inflation is likely to be more entrenched. i don't see why that's good for gold i think peter's thesis makes sense to me. >> you talked about the cyclicals. you like the cyclicals can you be specific? a big group, a big world where inside that? >> i think that the story here in many ways is kind of like what peter was talking about is that inflation is much more important as a positive indicator for certain parts of the market if you look at old economy companies, industrials, discretionary, they do a good job of passing on pricing. as opposed to like consumer staples or something else. one group that tends to be cyclical with a harder time next
year is financials comps are incredibly difficult very hard to see that next year is going to be better. the banks took huge credit loan loss reserves. released them. that's going to be nearly impossible to price in the market -- 20% decline in profitability so natural a -- you talked about it before. >> maybe a reason you're underweight the utilities. this is why i was in europe last week or two weeks ago. the utilities can't pass along the price increases. they're making it or buying it thank you can't double the bill.
they have regulated caps is that part of the thesis they were amazing money makers for years shockingly. >> yeah. there's a couple stories here. first is the areas of the market to think of as defensive have a personality. reits some are quite exposed to the economy and others aren't. they have been a surprise winner this year but generally speaking we think that more defensive sectors that people run to for cover are not the place to be looking at expectations for an economy that's expected to grow 4% next year plus inflation. we would avoid those defensive areas the consumer is in incredible shape discretionary looks terrific lack of debt and the like
job prospects are great. there's just frankly a ton to pick from on the cyclical stocks here's the key they're incredibly cheap so there's a lot of inventory out there to buy if you go looking. >> peter, looking at the year to date gains for bitcoin up 100%, gold down 2% i just wonder if bitcoin is just becoming a much more attractive inflation hedge or play. so much more sexy, too. >> it could be i think it will be tested to see if it's an inflation hedge or a measure of risk appetite or maybe some point risk aversion i get all the time told that bitcoin is replacing gold. my response is something that is 13 years old does not replace something that's 5,000 years old. been around for 5,000 years you have been through a lot, a lot of world wars, through droughts,
been through everything and stood the test of time i think they can compliment each other and both believers in the same thing anti-central bank in a sense anti-money printing. they believe in sound money. something of an asset that's limited supply so i think they both can go up at the same time and both for the same reason >> mike, a final word. i'm looking at the best performer for the week tesla with a gain of 10% despite the sales and the negativity with musk. home depot on earnings nvidia with a blowout number on top of the already strong run. >> a singular story i think is one of them coming to nvidia and tesla. tesla also benefitted from the fact that the kind of challengers to tesla got
overheated and pulled back a lot. moving money from one pocket to the other and apple is responsible for every bit of up so upside in the s&p and vaguely an ev story big stable growth stories countering the moderation in enthusiasm about the economy. >> we'll leave it there. thank you both for joining us today. >> thank you. we are just getting stasht started on the second hour of "closing bell. dan niles on how to position his portfolio for the new arndye a the payment space. we are back in two minutes on we are back in two minutes on "closing bell. we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this.
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welcome. >> my pleasure >> i know we are in for a seasonally strong period going into the end of the year but 2022 you're thinking doesn't look so hot. what's the forecast? >> my forecast since the beginning of the year was we're going to get a lot of inflation and the fed will be forced to taper and then forced to tighten. so far that's kind of headed down that path of inflation at 30-year highs but not started the tapering yet so the balance sheet just released at 8.7 trillion so the tapering is scheduled to start this month and you have got valuations at all-time record highs so you combine that together and at some point kicking and screaming the fed will be forced to raise rates multiple times next year because inflation starts to hurt
poor people the most and not something that's politically -- they can put up with we think tech is tough next year and the portfolio is built around those themes of inflation matters and stimulus matters. >> in an environment like that does big cap tech outperform >> well, you have to be careful. depends on what you define as big cap tech i look at it as big cap growth at a reasonable price tech so names like facebook, google, amazon company companies that generate profits will do well names where you have electric vehicles ten years from now that will be huge or bio tech or crypto that's going to take over from gold and the banking world, those names long duration assets
with no income losing lots of money you will have a massive problem. that's the differentiation to make we own facebook and google but we are short some of these latter ev names that are coming public and long other electric vehicle plays. in materials and in -- out of china. >> it is brian i won't ask you to dunk on a big wall street firm but they are bullish. goldman sachs with an i think 5100 year end 2022 price target. dunk on goldman sachs. what are they getting wrong? >> the number one thing that everybody's wrong unless you manage money or doing this job in the 1970s or spent a lot of time studying the 1970s you have no idea what you're in for why if you go back and read the fed stamtds from 1970s which i have
done and look at the chairman of the federal reserve said then, it is transitional cost push inflation. that's similar to the fed today when they started the year they didn't know existed. i would tell you that we have written on this extensive. you have 2.5 million more open jobs home prices up 20% up year over year it will drive rents so that's a big push on prices and then wages heard half the companies in s&p that reported talking about prices going up and then raising prices to keep the margins up and driven by wages and remains sticky you won't say i'm cutting the salary all of this stuff is going to outweigh used car prices coming
down or an energy price coming down because the other things are stickier nobody really talks about valuations like that's an afterthought but valuations matter at turning points and after 13 years of easy money which is what i believe's driven this that's a turning point and inflation and what firms are missing >> we have been teasing the payment picks. name some names for us and which ev names. >> it is interesting what you decide to focus on yeah on the payment side visa and paypal, for example, were darlings if you remember. they were going to be big winners in the move to paying online, et cetera. paypal doubled last year look at it now it's buy now pay
later will kill the guys and visa in a fight with amazon as they renegotiate fees and two names we picked up after reporting because the feeling is i've used the phone more to pay for things in the last week than the entire year before the pandemic so things are going to continue to shift and shift from paper to digital money and these are name that is general rate profits they grow. they're at the center of this stuff. with the question on ev plays we have talked before about china and the regulatory environment and how tough it's been and bought some names like li that trade at seven times sales and short. we trade these every day and short recent ev plays in the
u.s. that come public that trade close ore to 30 and 40 times. >> rivian? ev go? charles point? blink? >> yeah. we have been involved in both rivian and lucid and to be clear we trade those every day. >> okay. listen you have a contrarian opinion. that's why we appreciate you coming on cnbc and "closing bell." thank you. have a great day and good weekend. >> all right thank you. you, too. >> all right next, another contrarian call this time on china. investment opportunities in that country despite the human titara stuff going on there and the social spending bill passes. we'll dig in on the next steps and the broader economy and the market biontech and moderna higher on the back of a key booster
the shanghai composite outperformed today joining us now is jpmorgan chair of global research joyce chang good to have you on the network. >> good to be with you. >> talking about covid fears and insert sort of an emotion you might want china, i mean, they do it hard and fast why when they lock down they lock down. if we are worried about covid growth here shouldn't we be more worried about china? they have to have a pass to leave the parent building. >> i thinkyou have to worry about covid in china they will have a different view and holds true for a lot of asia a case of covid is a problem for everyone i think you see a rebound from the third quarter of the year. you had a height of the shutdowns, 3.3% contraction on a quarterly basis in the economy and we see that coming back to 4%
so i do see more signs of reopening. they won't change the hard line they take on covid right now but we see every reason to believe on the indicator it is better than the third quarter. very importantly, the authorities are putting in some credit easing measures right now. you had a third quarter disappointing due to the property concerns, covid you see the government taking action here and we expect to see more credit easing over the next couple months. >> all right it is not -- joyce, it is not just covid will be with us forever. evergrande group, the property developers right? alibaba with woes. what makes you more optimistic the government just kind of seems to do what it wants when it wants.
>> you have to remember that in china property, they have to balance the financial stability concerns here with measures for credit easing for announcing the relief developer woes and also the bank loan extensions because they have to blaalance maintaining te social stability in china and not only is growth rebounding but this is priced in and more opportunities on the bond market take a look at chi high yield property and chising in right now a 50% default rate i see the government allowing that to happen i don't see that will happen credit spreads in excess of 3,000 basis points and will have defaults in china. 20% default rate that is a huge number but it is not 50%. i don't think the government's
going to allow that. we do see the easing measures that they have announced on the credit side over the past week >> did you see alibaba's call and report yesterday it was a big loser down more than 11% the company talked about slowing chinese gdp and consumption. do you not buy that? >> no. look i think that will be selective in china right now and look at what's priced in they haven't priced in the regulatory tightening measures coming into play and understood weight there and if you look at the cyclicals and if you actually look on the china property bonds for what is priced in i don't see half of the sector defaulting. there's opportunity there is you can have returns of 10% in the chinese market and seeing that really on some higher
quality names, lower dollar priced bonds are entry opportunities that look pretty attractive here. >> joyce chang, thank you for joining us we appreciate it with the negativity on china lately. after the break the house passing the social spending and climate package. heather boushey joins us with what this might mean for the economy and your money roku pushing and the stock underperforms. whether the new strategy can turn things around when "closing bell" comes back
time now for a cnbc news update with shep smith. >> thanks. from the news on cnbc, kyle rittenhouse collapsed in relief this afternoon hearing the jury's verdict in his homicide trial. not guilty on all counts his lawyer spoke after >> kyle is not here. he's on his way home he wants to get on with his
life he has a huge sense of relief for what the jury did to him today. he wishes none of this would have ever happened. >> 2020 kenosha, wisconsin, in the throws of civil unrest rittenhouse says he went there to help protect property he was armed with an ar-15 and said he acted in self defense killing two men and shooting a third. a statement from the district attorney reads in part while we are disappointed with the verdict it must be respected we are grateful to the members of the jury for diligent and thoughtful deliberations tonight complete coverage from kenosha and the rest of the big stories on "the news" on cnbc. brian? hello, hello. >> hello, hello.
thank you very mumpch and a big show tonight the house passing president biden's $1.75 trillion social spending bill 20d after the congressional budget office says it costs $367 billion over a decade and doesn't include revenue of new tax enforcement joining us is heather boushey. could be more difficult in the senate what is your expectation as far as a timeline here >> this is a top priority for the president and he is eager to have this happen as quickly as possible get it over the finish line to do another big bill signing and so important to him because this is important to the american people and businesses. this will make a difference in people's lives and have a stronger labor force
improve productivity and put us on the path to net zero carbon this could not be more important at this juncture for the economy. >> okay. a big part of the revenue assumption is on the increased tax enforcement and i think most people say should pay if you in taxes but the president says it won't cost the middle class but is it not the reality there is not enough people to audit that's going to make a dent in that taxes won't increase tax enforcement go to those making under $400,000 >> here's the thing. the president has committed time and time again to not raising taxes on folks that make less than $400,000 a year and the reality is for far too long for decades we have been starving the internal revenue service of the dollars they need to enforce
the laws on the books and meant that folks particularly at the top of the income distribution have been able to avoid paying the taxes they owe and what the president put out there with treasury proposed to ramp up enforcement and we believe that this can bring in significant resources. this is treasury's assessment and other former irs commissioners thinking that the treasury assessment is too conservative we believe that this legislation is fully paid for and will lower did deficit over time. >> the cbo scoring it will not be fully paid for and it will increase the deficit by $367 billion over 10 years. >> i disagree. that's the doiifference between treasury with the resources the
enforce the laws on the book and that number is bigger than what the congressional budget office believes but treasury enforce the law and between them and the former irs commissioners saying that this is - >> okay. >> that's where we're at. >> the other criticism to increasing the deficit is programs in the bill have cutoffs to save costs but if the bill goes through and the programs are extended as intended it will raise the deficit and that's not factored in. >> that's of course not factored in because the legislation isn't proposed and the president has laid out a robust array of tax revenue ideas. some of which made it into the package and the bipartisan infrastructure bill but there's other ways to raise taxes without raising taxes on those making less than $400,000 to fill the gaps but those are
questions for future congresses. we can't assume that a piece of legislation won't expire. >> we talk about esg and electric cars and up to $12,500 tax credit if the car is made in the united states. that's a big tax credit but we know that the majority of electric cars are primarily second cars for wealthier people unless there's a mileage tax or inspection tax or registration tax we'll have upper income people driving around. what kind of revenue generation should we get from elect cars? what works >> here's the thing. there's this investment in moving to net zero carbon and
the good to do for the economy we have to make this transition. we need to make it quickly for the sake of the planet and for the sake of american competitiveness and what we are doing by making it cheap every to afford electric vehicles and families to afford other kinds of pathways is spur innovation and create good jobs in the united states so i'm focused on did fact that back in the summer we saw the big three automakers and the unions come together to say we can make the cars in america and doing what we need to do on the climate and spur new ideas, new products, new innovation to help the united states remain competitive on a global marketplace >> elon musk wasn't there. >> yeah. i appreciate the answer and just saying if we don't tax electric
cars and the roads only people paying for the roads are lower income that can't afford electric cars which is regressive how do we raise revenue from electric cars? i paid $25 in tolls to do this show coming to work today. actual number. i wonder what kind of revenue generation we get and how do we make sure they contribute to the cars and not a landscaper who can't afford to live where he works? >> electric vehicles will also have to pay tolls just like your car and we pay through the taxes for pieces of infrastructure around the country i think your point about the gas tax is well taken but trying to make this transition we need to make the investments now and certainly issues to confront as we get more cars on the road but the most important thing for communities and jobs and
innovation is to make sure to make the investments to get the cars on the road. >> i don't understand how it doesn't increase inflation in the hot inflationary environment. i know it's spread out over years but the first year is a tax cut and stimulus. >> so this is something that economists have been looking at. not only economists here at the white house but across the country. seen the rating agencies and economists who have looked at the package say this isn't going to raise inflation here's why it's fully paid for. second of all this is a long term package, package investing over time in boosting the labor supply improving productivity all of those things are going to contain costs. more people entering the labor force with access to care to afford that's high quality and
helps bring down costs over time, help the economy perform better these are the reasons that economists do not believe it will increase inflation. >> heather, thank you for joining us from the white house today. >> thank you. we are less than a week away from thanksgiving. up next, mike with a look at how inflation could impact the cost of your holiday feast. stocks under pressure today as europe return to lockdown. what it means for the u.s. and potential reopening here dr. levy joins us, a member of the fda advisory committee "closing bell" will be right back
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post on social media? hash-tag high thryv my friend! get a free demo at thryv.com. thanksgiving is less than one week away. so how much does out cost you? let's go to mike santoli looking at the cost of the thanksgiving dinner this year i guess i'm wild stab it's higher. >> higher. definitely from the year before. a lot of attention on food prices of course because we notice it. up a lot in a short period of time this is an exchange traded basket of the agricultural futures to play food prices and see aggressive move since the low last year is a five-year round trip over time food is less onerous in terms of affording it for the average person take a look at this measure of how much the typical ingredient of a thanksgiving dinner will cost for average wages
this is how many hours a blue collar worker at the wage right now would have to work over the years to earn much to pay for the ingredients. about 50 bucks right now total this is in long term decline mid-'80s three hours of work this is from the economist that worked in the obama administration while wages have been rising it's more than offset so far seen in rising costs for food anyway. >> good news according to the st. louis fed looking at the price of soybeans relative to poultry and not run up that much and first year ever a tofurkey -- >> what did you say? don't screw that up. >> a favorite down here. >> 66 cents for a serving versus $1.42 for a traditional turkey on thanksgiving. >> is that a thing >> for a lot of people that
don't eat meat. >> for people that only meat have the turducken. >> it is hard to make a good gravy with a tofurkey. >> milk and self esteem. >> mike, thank you up next, getting the green light. moderna and biontech popping today as there's big decisions on boosters why what's next with the fda advisory committee member dr. levy and roku making a fresh push into the content space. what it coulme fd anor netflix and disney plus straight ahead "closing bell" will be right back
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decision dr. fauci warned that hospitalizations are rising for vaccinated people why did it take until now? >> thank you for that question it is a balance when the advisory panel meets and advise fda. at the time we met there was less information available it is always a balance between safety an efficacy vaccines we give to healthy people they better be safe. in younger in age less concern of covid and risks of myocarditis. the information shows that it is mild and it can be handled number two, we are getting more and more data of breakthrough infections particularly of those immunized a while ago and so the
evidence has increased that the benefit to risk ratio would favor a booster for all adults 18 and up now. >> we have been focusing on the economic impacts and the market fell again there's partial lockdowns in europe is the advice now for everyone to have a booster, that that should happen to prevent more disruptions like we see in europe >> absolutely. i just came back on a trip from israel to visit my parents and over there with the extensive database they have with the pfizer product you can see as they rolled out the boosters in realtime within two weeks of the booster they saw in realtime drops in the spread of the coronavirus infection. we need to get everybody the primary series we have millions of people in this country without even one dose and then boosters for all
the adults and not just here but europe i read this winter might be 500,000 deaths in central and eastern europe due to coronavirus. >> with the cases up if we want to be positive about it hospitalizations in the united states million deaths from coronavirus. >> if we wanted to be positive about it, hospitalizations in the united states are down 50% in the last two months that doesn't get a lot of attention, but that's the case i want to talk about testing. rapid testing is available to us, not everybody. in europe testing is everywhere. not free but cheap germany has 71 companies making tests. tests are listed as a medical device why doesn't the fda with the stroke of a pen change what the
class is so they can be produced by everybody, go to $1 and be falling off the store shelves. >> that's a good question. but there is a balance, getting rid of red tape and being nimble especially with a health crisis like this. and if we release tests not reliable, that causes other problems people could be labeled positive when they are not or vice versa. i agree with you, but it has to be done in the right way >> one of the medical device tests had a bunch of false positives. this is a regulated medical device and they still had big problems it's up on the fda's website >> the systems aren't perfect in general. i know working in a hospital, we
know the specificity of each test and rely on those real time much when this pandemic broke out, we did not perform well in how we developed in testing. there will be a lot of lessons learned. >> you just said all of us should get boosters after six months of the second shot. are we goingto need another booster in another six months? >> that remains to be determined we will have to follow the protection and data. and we are going to have to see how long that protection lasts for vaccines that have been around a long time, like measles and others, we know how long they last and know what the protection is. for coronavirus we are still learning this could end up as an endemic virus that comes back every winter it's worse when people hang
together indoors people should gather and enjoy the friends and holidays, but they should get a cbooster. >> do you think the public messaging needs to be stronger here >> in my personal opinion they should get a booster, but the cdc had their reasons. >> doctor, we appreciate you joining us >> have a good weekend >> it's amazing. the fda still does not have a full-time commissioner they have an acting. with the stroke of a pen they could make testing widely available, cheap so your kids, everybody's kids >> it is hard to get hold of those rapid tests.
>> i went to rural virginia where my parents live and they are everywhere >> they are not flying off the shelves. >> no. but in new jersey people wait for the truck. closing bell will be right back on a friday growing up in a little red house, on the edge of a forest in norway, there were three things my family encouraged: kindness, honesty and hard work. over time, i've come to add a fourth: be curious. be curious about the world around us, and then go. go with an open heart, and you will find inspiration anew. viking. exploring the world in comfort.
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welcome back shares of roku have sharply outperformed the market, but have things turned around? big numbers here >> big numbers roku wants to be known not only as a platform for other streamers, but a destination for their own exclusive content. roku plans to develop more than 50 original shows in the next two years, looking for shows from 18 to 50-year-olds. about half of the accounts watch roku channel
advertising is considered an increasingly important key to their growth the revenue grew 82% sn. >> but can they compete with the likes of netflix on deep pockets? >> maybe they don't need to compete. this is free you are not paying a subscription fee if they get you to spend a little time, they can generate advertising revenue without you paying a fee >> got it. a good distinction. >> are there enough people to create 50 more good shows? why are we sitting here? we should have our own production company >> we have our show on cnbc. >> sullivan and isaac. >> it's just so much fun with brian here
>> isaac and sullivan, by the way. >> skittishness out there around rising covid cases, ta perring and maybe fears they are going to speed up the ta perring >> there is the wall of worry we are always talking about fed chair name nominated i think will help. but seasonably things work better towards thanksgiving. mid november there is a little bit of a flattening out or pullback that's where we are now. i think we are sensitive to any inputs about what the trajectory of this economy is right now i don't think there is rethink about the u.s. recovery or consumer strength.
it's about whether globally we can get back into reflags. >> going to be hunkering down with you, sarah, and mike. >> good to have everybody back we will be back next week. that will do it for "closing bell." have a great weekend "fast money" begins now. >> this is "fast money." i'm courtney reagan in for melissa lee. tonight's lineup -- couldn't, the big warning for small caps the chart master sees trouble brewing in the charts. plus foot locker plunging today. what set the locker into the hurt locker. and the mega stock on a tear the name and how to trade it straight ahead a new wave
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