tv Fast Money CNBC November 19, 2021 5:00pm-5:30pm EST
it's about whether globally we can get back into reflags. >> going to be hunkering down with you, sarah, and mike. >> good to have everybody back we will be back next week. that will do it for "closing bell." have a great weekend "fast money" begins now. >> this is "fast money." i'm courtney reagan in for melissa lee. tonight's lineup -- couldn't, the big warning for small caps the chart master sees trouble brewing in the charts. plus foot locker plunging today. what set the locker into the hurt locker. and the mega stock on a tear the name and how to trade it straight ahead a new wave of covid
concerns the broader market on edge as austria declared a nationwide lockdown and germany put new restrictions in place. in the u.s. numbers are starting to tick up casinos, airlines and movie theaters also went down. and the nasdaq closing above 16,000 for the first time ever let's break down the risk to the market guy, what, if anything, do these new covid headlines give you as far as worry why are we selling off now and not before what's going on? >> i think as a human being we are all concerned, but this is concern about the market for better or worse, the markets have learned how to deal with these covid headlines.
some of the names you mentioned probably got a tad ahead of themselves what is working, it's been working for a while. the big tech names continue to grind higher people are finding valuations in some of these names, like qualcomm, really interesting i think there is a bit of a rotation i am surprised how poorly the banks will trade, but maybe that makes sense in light of what you just mentioned earlier >> nadine, what do you make of what happened today and how that plays into your playbook for next week? >> the virus count we look at the headlines that austria is shutting down and a number of european countries, their counts are at all-time highs. but look at hospitalizations, they are at a third of the
prevaccination peaks germany, the prior peak of hospitalization is only at 30% so vaccinations are appearing to hold the line. at the current vaccination rate, 3/4 of the world will have vaccinated their adult vaccination by year end. if we just say overall we are in a much better position than what we have seen in the past as guy said, from a human perspective, it is still troubling, worrisome >> case counts are one thing, hospitalizations are something else it seems the vaccines do help avoid hospitalizations so that's good news. dan, what do you make of the action >> the s&p 500, same conversation as last night
the market is unchanged. why? apple closes at a new all time high microsoft at a new high. alphabet was trading at a new all-time high. you get the drill. it has been going on for about a year there have been a lot of rotations we have seen we will talk about energy. transports were a bit of a disaster there are a lot of parts of the stock market that don't play well should groups be reacting? i don't know russell 2000, do they have any exposure to austria? i don't think so 75% of their revenues come from the u.s. so the real concern, whether we will have further supply chain dynamics that will cause ap mention about growth going forward. this is the problem here
s&p 500, you are looking at the wrong thing if you are trying to figure out what the gauge is of the fear i think we are buying it, have to move on and then the global economy has to get reopened here >> karen, what do you think about today's news i think dan is right, austria has little to do with the small cap. >> i agree there are two things, the human story which is not our endeavor. it's more how will the market react. we also have data that shows we can handle the virus much better even if there is some slowdown, i don't think the market perceives this as a delta variant. hopefully we don't see another thing like that.
boeing, they keep delaying the dream liner. the story gets less and less bad every time i think this is similar to that. we have seen this work out a few times. i think big pullbacks on this opportunity to buy >> karen, i know you were focused on the action in the banks. anything you want to point out to the viewers in what you saw today and what it may portend >> i think the banks overreacted a bit. i think they are still very attractive i think the fed is on course to start tapering and ultimately start raising rates. i do think there is some uncertainty around who the next fed chair will be. i think if it's powell, i think
the banks will do better i think uncertainty hasn't been good for them, but i feel like they are chief regardless of who is the next fed chair. i own j. pp. morgan, wells, bank of america >> we have trade school in session. nadine, take it away >> thanks, courtney. today i charted a bit of 20-year treasuries and utilities alternatively you could go long why. we have seen financials get hit in the past month, since october 22 long-t long-term treasury yield has declined and utilities moved up
meaningfully and so has tech run up number one number two, the macrosetup is positive in the short-term reflationary trade we think will be back in session soon and that means upward pressure on long-term rates. and third, technicals in your favor. as karen said, banks are down. euros are down this is not as juicy as the last time i recommended this, but there is an 11% discount it means people are complacent, not paying for protection. if you want the best short to be a little more patient than me.
short it 150.80. kind of like karen said, financials are overdone in terms of downside. there are some trades for you if you think rates are going up >> i like it guy, what do you think about nadine's approach? >> i think it's great. last time we talked about this it traded down she talked about that and maybe a week later they were north of 161. obviously we haven't seen rates trade to that level, but i think her thresis is spot on. but ten-year yields should be significantly higher than now. i think she is spot on with the call >> crude falling last night you heard the chart master sounding the alarm.
now carter is back with a new warning. this time on small caps. hi, carter >> thank you for remembering my good one let's drill down a bit and a pictorial on the russell 2000. ten weeks into the year on march 12, the iwm was up 19% and the spy was up 6 look at the next table this is ten months in. at present iwm still up 19%. spy is up not 6, but 25. the third of three what we know is basically since march 12 or 15, the russell 2000 is unchanged that's a long time whereas the
spy is up 19 or 20%. let's look at the chart. what we have is that great run-up off the pandemic low. blowing away the s&p and then this great sideways action what is important is that slight breakout that is failing that is what is known as a false breakout i don't think it has legs. i think it is stuck and no reason to be long. look at the next one same chart on the top. iwm depicting tight range that has ensued after the run-up. but look at the relative performance of the s&p it has been straight down since. final chart. just put that same two-panel long-term. what we know is the top is making new highs but the relative performance has
been nothing but a disaster. it made new shocking lows during covid and even though it bounced, it never could get back on its feet. we think small caps are a trap >> thank you very much, carter i like the graphics and pictorial form >> if you think the small caps are trapped, then the s&p 500 is the biggest mousetrap to man because we know there is about six stocks holding that whole thing up and we just talked about all of the poor performance in all of the groups carter just highlighted a sensitive group. we just talked about small caps. the s&p 500 has to be a bigger problem, in my mind than the russell. it is not likely to underperform
on the downside. if we are going to get a sharp sell-off it's because the biggest names in the s&p 500 will go down quicker than the small cap. >> what do you make of this, karen? >> i am disappointed he didn't say to the penny i always love it when he says that it is interesting what he is saying makes me think about it. i don't view the russell as one monolith but i am thinking if i am looking to hedge my portfolio, maybe you should use more of a rus russell weighting, so i'm bearish on the russell four key names to have on your radar and this company adding roughly 0 billion in market cap since
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we have a buzz kill. the company is saying it expects global supply. karen, what are your thoughts on this move? i think we all knew the supply chain was going to continue through this quarter and maybe a lot of next year why in the world the sell-off? >> that's a good question. we talked about the supply chain issue. thought foot locker was good at 57 it went to 60. i am surprised at the magnitude of the market's reaction they had a very good quarter
gross margins were excellent which shows how little activity they need to have. they said they expect it to moderate going forward they didn't say when that's not surprising. when you put that together and the multiple is eight and they have a bunch of cash -- i don't know, i'm intrigued to get back in it was down 7 bucks. i will wait until early next week i liked sarah's interview with the ceo asking why the reaction. he said i don't know sticking to be conservative and what he knows best i am going to look at it monday. >> digital sales were down 6%. it was the only retailer that reported lower digital sales this year. we do have a short trading week coming up.
but before thanksgiving hits, let's set the table with our traders and what we are watching next week -- nadine, what do you like >> i am looking towards zoom it's less about zoom but what are their competitive dynamics with the microsoft team. we have been a long-term holder of microsoft but our view is that microsoft is a top choice when companies are consolidating. i get they have a lot of smaller companies, but that has been declining in terms of growth rate it has been decelerating so they need to go up market so from the technicality, if you are trading zoom itself, shares are down 26% since second quarter print. i wouldn't be going against
anybody long here. i would say stay neutral if you are trading zoom because there is a risk of a short squeeze, but i am most interested in learning about microsoft from the zoom call. >> guy, what are you setting your table with? >> dutton. dollar tree had a big move to the upside prior they report next week. i am watching to see if their earnings release will hold up and keep the stock at these levels i think it will be fascinating to see and then i will go downstream. i don't want to give away my final trade. >> good one. dan? >> best buy is interesting to me the stock is valued at about 35%. it feels like it's in a straight line expectations are pretty high what they have to say about the consumer will be interesting to me zoom, that stock is down 25% on
the year, down 50% from its all time highs i can see a short squeeze, but i can't see too many fundamental reasons why that should rally. the slightest miss and it's going lower. >> karen >> i think zoom is the most interesting. i think it's a combination of pandemic being over. what kind of revenue growth are they seeing. that's interesting to me but the other part is sentiment about pandemic winners is that over we saw peloton get annihilated the sentiment is changing. some of it is peloton's own doing. if zoom has the same reaction, i think we will see more pressure on the high flyers that have done so well during the pandemic up next, this stock has been
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post on social media? hash-tag high thryv my friend! get a free demo at thryv.com. welcome back to "fast money. amazon has been on a stealth tear a 4.3% since monday. guy, you flagged this move this morning. what is your take, why is this happening and why haven't he would been talking about it? >> we should have been talking
about it a lot of it i think has to do with rivian. and people are saying wait a minute, this is not going anywhere anytime soon. the stock did not trade well today at all the fact we traded up to the prior all-time high and failed is problematic i am not ready to write it off, but that's the stealth move. but in ret sprospect, this wasnt good >> since their quarter results the fact the stock rallied back to prior highs, i don't think too many people saw that coming. facebook had a heck of a day, closing up 2%. that has been a huge laggart and
that may be some of that same sentiment. >> is this one of the stocks we should look at because of all of the businesses they are tied up in >> right now our ranges are 2.7 downside to upside i would rather come back in more like 5.4%. people are being complacent in the options market, not buying protection i don't think you have to primm it it. y -- trim it you may want to hedge it it's time for our final trade. nadine >> i am going for japan, ewj the government approved a package for stimulus >> karen >> i think rates are going hire
and banks. particularly citibank. >> dan >> i don't think rates are going higher i would be a buyer of the uup. >> mr. adame >> you see my eyes distracted. my daughter is home from college and trying to distract me. you would think she would know better dollar general, dg, courtney don't go anywhere because "options action" is coming up next
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