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tv   Squawk Box  CNBC  December 1, 2021 6:00am-9:00am EST

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reopening stocks like airlines and casinos all set to rebound an fda advisory panel narrowly confirming the nerk merck pill why the vote was close and who may be eligible to get it. not everybody. >> and new ceo at salesforce it's wednesday, december 1 "squawk box" begins right now >> good morning.
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the dow tumbled. a bit of an ugly day a bit of a surprise. checking things out. the dow down s&p down .8% nasdaq closed higher by a quarter of 1%. looking at these averages, the dow was up over 5% nasdaq about 4%. we are not talking about huge moves despite these moves. you look at the futures, you will see green arrows indicated across the board s&p indicated up by 56 the nasdaq is really the big mover today. indicated up 230 points. we should look at treasury yields which had been under pressure quite a while pushing up to 1.495%
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crude oil, the month was very difficult. november saw the weakest levels we have seen through much of 2020 remember march of 2020 when covid-19 first broke out pressures are up over the month to an all-time high. brian sullivan with the move on oil. first we'll talk to our friend steve leishman that main take away has to be
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the meeting to discuss the likely spread. jp morgan write gs this. it looks like it will take a deterioration to prevent the efficacy now it is up to the new variant and if it is bad enough. retiring to describe inflation otherwise raising his level of concern over prices bringing forward the end of the fed asset
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rates. ending around february raising the possibility to quicker rate hikes limited how fast rate hikes would come >> were you surprised he threw in tha the word transitory >> no. my surprise was that he didn't wait a month he said at that last meeting remember, that was only the beginning of november. we are prepared to speed up or slow down the rate being on a
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rate, you did have an inflation report the question, why didn't the fed anticipate that. then the omicron came up. enough with the transitory >> thank you that's exactly what i think it was. why did i utter that you are so good. >> another one, con und rum
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where we just got sick of the word >> a fed chair uses a word when it helps him or her describe the outlook for policy i think transitory became a liability for powell politically in terms of his response and it wasn't helping >> you notice i did the other thing first add it all together.
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it brings us to the 149. >> i do applaud you for doing the fun stuff first. >> we do like viewers. >> don't look to the10 year. you've had a flattening of the curve couldn't it be a situation
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where the fed said they are going to stop buying bonds and they'll look towards this and potentially raise rates sooner i don't know what that means over the short term because they've been a biggie. i have long maintained that the fed has less annout look on that you would think the fed coming off on the lengonger end but it not. i was going to do something off topic to point out i'll be playing at the new york stock exchange christmas party
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i thought that was more important to discuss >> with a break tap, no, that's not part of why? >> that's part of the logic of the fed. when growth is so good, it causes them to be not as accommodative, that could affect growth that is the sort of circular argument >> totally agree i haven't done the calculation there. they are still going to be buying tens of billions worth of assets they'll still be at zero all the way through march. this is what i think investors have to understand maybe not juf out there to justify some of the high asset
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prices interesting to see commodities come off and other assets that are maybe not central. they are back to a more normal interest rate given the fourth quarter. >> let's take inned weeds and look at molecular biology and talking about merck and fda narrowly endorsing voting 13-10
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merck originally said the drug was more than 50 percent effective. saying this drug works by prompting the virus to mutate and produce errors mutate is the operative word similar to what you would normally use
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different than the pfizer drug some doctors worry it is worried it could make things more few tated. >> doctors were responding to it saying we'd appreciate in guidance as to whom we are supposed to give what? there are so many new but in the field, i think doctors are confused about what they are supposed to do when. >> some is higher hopes but it
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has its own set on the other hand with the druginteraction. do we need an omicron booster i bet you wish you took a science course >> crude prices up but still down over the last week.
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we'll get you ready next to talk the oil market a long a block it is 6:13 live from time square. feel stuck with student loan debt? move to sofi and feel what it's like to get your money right. ♪ ♪ move your student loan debt to sofi— you could save with low rates and no fees. earn a $1,000 bonus when you refi— and get your money right. ♪ ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations,
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covid fears sending oil prices tumbling yesterday but a
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big rebound today ahead of opec's big meeting brian sullivan joins us now with more it reminds me more of you say one thing i say the other. what is most important right now? >> i was going to say yes to your question. you are right. what do you say, you are down 4% yesterday. up nearly 5% right now a big start to december for crude oil. yesterday, a november to for get. down 20% worst month since the pandemic began lastmarch.
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goldman says the recent price slide is sort of the equivalent of a 700,000 barrel a day negative demand hit or the same as not one single plane flying in the world for three months or a world worst-off than before vaccines the question is will they pause their current base adding a day or each month.
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they have the ability to pause that they might there is expectation creating reserves many do not have capacity. they've idled the facilities according to state news where he thinks they will add a programming note i will be at the first in-person opec meeting in texas. i'll be bringing some guests
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from squawk. what do you think about that >> tough to go to vienna right now. good for you that it is in texas. to try to distinguish between supplyand demand is just impossible i'm never going to ask that question again >> time is a flat circle, joe. all i know is it is going really fast, which worries me but better than not moving because then you are dead.
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>> almost to 2022. the famous mozart chocolate with almost an almond taste to it, they went bankrupt there is no tourism. one of the oldest, most known things in austria filed for their equivalent of chapter 11 because after the rea is on lockdown there gas buddy talking about four-day lockdowns. many states saying they are not going to do it americans even with partal lockdowns are driving more and work from home creates double the energy need work from
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home increases the demand which increases oil drilling >> i visited mozart's childhood home it is right near mcdonalds >> and the bridge with all the love locks on it >> and if you are afraid of heights do not go up there and julie andrews was running around there too because the hills are alive. >> i hung out at soliari's house. >> that guy, was he bitter good references. when we come back, twitter rolling out new changes aimed at protecting privacy
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>> your morning cup of coffee might cost more soon coffee prices have hit highs prices could last into 2023. blaming poor weather conditions in brazil. political unrest and a covid outbreak all in addition to theup sply crisis "squawk box" will be right back.
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twitter says users will no longer be able to share photos and videos of another person without their permission
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the company said that could be a violations to privacyand could create harm. the company said it will either need a first-person report or from authorized representative to decide whether a piece of media has been shared without permission and order it to be removed. the owner will be able to dispute any take down. seen as a way to assault victims not to intimidate and women not wearing a burqa. and the trial of elizabeth holmes an article opened flood indicats
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that lead to thernos's demise. telling the jury the way she handled the investigation was, quote a disaster learning the whistleblowerwas talking she said she wished she had treated things differently when we come back, we'll bring a live report from washington where lawmakers are moving towards the government shut down a look at yesterday's s&p 500
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good morning welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc take a look at futures now things are powering a lot higher this morning nasdaq looking like it would open about 230 points higher s&p up 55 points now we want to go to washington where congress is scrambling trying to find a measure that would avert a shutdown now that they'll meet the deadlines
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the government runs out of money where they are building for a stop gap measure still pointing to a separate issue. on the debt limit. showing the treasury has 272 billion worth of cash left that puts us in the yellow zone with about two weeks of money left remember this is a dial. it moves backwards and forwards. and the treasury has a little more breathing room more than it was when it had $269 billion left and if the payment to the trust
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comes through, treasury could run out of money before the month is over. now over to you. >> this is the party never understand i always wonder. i don't mean to be a total cynic. did we always know we would have a little more money than we thought? was there a cushion in there >> treasury's incentive is to be conservative to push that back even perhaps later than that. the ramifications are massive.
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for the markets and for individuals. seeing social security payments delayed or not coming through at all we keep running up against the deadlines. those markets to all those warnings that policymakers try to run their way ahead, lawmakers looking to address the supply chain crisis. that's next. don't miss your exclusive inte interview next watch live on the cnbc app any time.
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welcome back u.s. equities bouncing back. we've been whip sawed based on the latest thinking or meantment on the latest variant of covid hearing about different cases in the world. we'll talk about that, i'm sure
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later in the show cares act funds to make its way to deal with supply chain issues helping to offset port fees. joining us now, one of the authors of the act great to have you on a look at who you are, to me, born in havana immigrated here in 1960. you were fire chief in miami for how many years like a long time you had a career as chief of the
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fire department. and now why this you did such great work, such noble work and now this? is. >> i always say my career went down hill after i left the fire service. i was fire chief, city manager, county commissioner and mayor of miami dade for years and now i'm in the congress. i love serving my country. this is my country i love the united states i love my city i came from cuba a communist regime, so i'm grateful for this country and the opportunity and a great honor to serve here in congress. >> already assistant whip that's amazing.
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you think if we move some of these ships through the panama canal, that this would work immediately and you don't need new funds? that's right we could use excess money not being used, offset those ships through the panama canal right now, ships are waiting about 40 days on the west coast. we could probably cut that down by 30 days and get goods into the hands of americans here 30 days faster. they are losing about $40 million just sitting off the coast of kaef they have to proof
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they have previous commitment of being on the coast they cannot be chinese owned they could move those faster coming to the east coast so we can get those goods in american hands a lot faster people don't realize, we don't have an endless supply of containers >> right you could end containers to load them with american goods and ship them off where people are needing american goods we need to speed up the supply
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chain. it is a problem we are seeing with ship after ship after ship just waiting there to offload and not able to do it as quick as they could on the east coast. >> you've been outspoken against vaccine mandates across the board. i wanted to sort of understand your thinking about that we keep hearing about new variants and the science would tell us this would help >> i'm not anti-vaccine. i'm vaccinated
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i am anti-mandate. i believe in individual freedom. the bond between patient and doctor is personal the mandate i don't believe is right but i do encourage people to vaccinate i think our state of florida is a great example. >> what about the cost to the system the flip side is, we being vaccinated are ultimately going to be paying for everyone else that isn't vaccinated. >> i do support it following the data that follows the science. >> today and following the science, not
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the political science. that's the problem here. he follows the data. he's been very successful. our economy is up and numbers are low. the proof is in the pudding. >> today the rates are low because you had a spike several months ago and there were a remarkable number of deaths. >> it does it makes sense to me may not make sense to you but it does to me we are doing very well if the state of florida that's why people are moving to the state of florida the free state of florida. i'm not anti-vaccinating i'm vaccinated my wife is vaccinated. i am against the mandate i think it is an intrusion of personal freedom that's why i came here from cuba
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to have personal freedom >> 2016, you supported clinton then for 2020 you actually -- former president trump endorsed you. your life, like i said, a lot of different moving parts what caused you to go from clinton supporter to go to supporter of former president trump. >> i made a huge mistake supporting clinton look at everything that has evolved now with the russia collusion. i told president trump, yep, i made a big mistake i will face up to it i think the president's policies are the way -- the president's policies are great it's unfortunate president biden is overturning all of those
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policies all of those policies the president has overturned instead of following those good common sense policies just because he's president trump. he's undoing everything. we had disaster in afghan tan, total war on energy production and asking opec to create more energy doesn't make sense at all. i'm a proud sufficient supporter of president trump and i was in 2020 >> do you expect this bill to actually get a vote or hearing in both chambers and become a law? >> we are in a minority. minority ideas have a way of dying here even if they are go ideas. it is unfortunate. am i hopeful i always have hope do i expect it, we are in the minority right now, especially on the house side they are running
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everything i don't believe it is going to pass but maybe because it is a good idea that we can get together and get something done. >> we'll be watching thank you congressman. great to have you on this morning. when we come back, we'll talk about the supply chain. that will be later this morning. we have union pacific ceo lance fritz coming up. the worst month for wti since march of 2020. energy minister will join us in the next break right after this break to break down the action we'll be right back. we now find that 85% of individual investors are interested in sustainable investing.
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. the do you is down more than 17% in the past month and trading just below $70 a barrel at this point. joining sus the founding partner and capital cnbc contributor, john, we see the new covid variant and concern about what that will mean has done a bigger job in denting oil prices and potential for demand than anything we've seen with this spr release. what happens now >> well, very skittish market these days, becky, for sure. we will, so far, the news keeps changing right. so now we're hearing maybe it's not as boyhood as initially thought. the problem for the oil market, though, is that the reactions are piling up and being as bad as we thought in terms of potential travel restrictions. that's a direct hit to jet fuel demand, which is a big part of
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the oil barrel so to the extent this pocket of demand goes away, it's a big problem for the oil market it was on the road to recovery, which was not absolute tightness. so we're keeping our fingers crossed. it's a nice rebound for stocks and oil f. we get oil back over $75 per barrel wt i, it will probably ready the ship for a while. >> that's not what consumers want to hear, these higher prices how quickly could you see a rebound in prices, though, if these restrictions come down, there is not the closures we have seen in the past. >> probably fairly quickly we won't be going back to $86 a barrel any time either thankfully, mother nature has been cooperative in giving us a fall season in north america and europe and asia. china has been embattled by that molar vortex which would -- owe
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polar have tex which would pressure on the heating demand in the southern pack with the la nina should cause a warmer winter u.s. production continues to steadily climb back. i don't believe opec will pull back on their steady progression of adding oil barrels to the market i think worst for now may be behind us. >> john, why don't you think opec will pull back? we've watched oil prices come down significantly, global demand the picture certainly dim for that, too. it would different them the cover it would seem if they wanted to pull back and say we will not increase by 400 barrels a day. >> that is true to a degree. they could use that cover. however, they know full well we are going into the hype of the demand season for crude oil globally the northern hemisphere weather has dipped as much as i extolled mother
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nature for giving us a break here that could obviously go out the window in a heart beat so they really have the cover to keep going with more supply because of that fact alone also, too, they're politically savvy. in my view, it would be a real affront to the biden administration, u.s. consumers, other consuming nations, because it would be a direct tit for tat in terms of a supply balance so i think for now it's better off for them to let things run as they programmed it if the winter season is adjusted, then they'd be all right to pull back right now, know. >> do you think the market will factor in and increase the barrels per day as anticipated or do you think the market is higher this morning because they think the supply picture might
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get more crimped >> i think the real conclusion is they will go ahead with the barrels. that has helped with the overall price decline. look we're under $70 a barrel, we were as high as 86 a few weeks ago. you talk about the stunning percent annual decline for prices so i think there is a conclusion for now. what we're hearing from the opec minsters and the russians, by the way. the russians aren't necessarily on board withholding back supply they want complete pullout from market share and pushing really for more barrels not necessarily to lower the price for us to get them more market share. so that's the other factor here. unanimity will be the way to keep things the way they, are fought pull back >> thanks, becky, coming up, dr. scott gottlieb will weigh in on what we know about omicron and the latest data out of south african. two big hours of "squawk" coming
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up in a moment zblmpbls
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fed chairman j. powell's testimony, we'll talk about the taper time line and what it will mean for your investments. the omicron variant has now been identified in more than a dozen countries causing many to restrict travel.
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but a new study out of israel could be offering hope, showing that existing vaccines do offer some protection. we will hear from dr. scott gottlieb and tech's wild ride we'll talk about which names should be in your portfolio the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc i'm andrew ross sorkin along with becky quick and joe concerning the markets are powering higher. the u.s. equities futures right now after what has been a see-saw all week down now up would open at least 338 points higher nasdaq opening 250 points higher the s&p 500 up 60 points quite something, the reverse am.
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>> in the individual stocks, too, i guess we're reopening again, i guess here's dom chu he's looking at what's moving in the pre-market >> reopening, shutting down, yes to andrew's point, it's been a see-saw kind of move since black friday let's take a look at the names above the center of the focal point for investors and traders. the ones that have shown maybe the most volatility over the course of the last few days here we'll start with the energy sector overall, energy has been at least moving to the downside predominantly over the course of the last few weeks since prices have fall him. if you take a look at the bounce back trade today diamondback energy up 3.5% objection departmental up 3% halliburton 2% the energy sector spyder is up 2% those are among the best performing s&p 500 stocks in the
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pre-market and of course the reopening trade so to speak. we talk about travel and leisure, among the best performing marks, carnivale up 3% southwest air up 2.5%. hilton worldwide up 2% los vegas sands up 3% and is% for booking holdings one last part, there was seven stocks positive in the entire s&p 500 in yesterday's session i will notoriety now apple was one of them. all right f. you look at tesla, those two stocks were two of the only seven positive in the s&p 500 yesterday. apple is one 1 and three-quarters alphabet up 1.5% amazon over 1% and over 1% gains for tesla as well. nearly a quarter of the s&p 500 is those names there but that apple move yesterday, very notable in a very down
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take back over to you. >> i don't know what narrowed leadership, well, right, dom you got only a few stocks. there are a lot of stocks down a lot more than the 3 or 4% we are thinking about with the s&p. >> if you take a look at the overall picture, yes, that's a reason why there was concern there. there also white house this notion this outperformance of megacap names. that there was at least a little bit of relative outperformance in places like megacap tech and com services, indicating when the going gets tough, people want to be in stock, they tend to gravitate more toward those names. by the way, there is no surprise, right, joe because that has been the trend ever since the depths of the great financial crisis in 2010, that trend is almost engrained in the dna of investors right now this notion if you really want to be in stock and things are a little shaky for you you go to microsoft, apple and the big tech names >> you read the post, dom in.
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>> i can all of them. >> you see tesla with the tattoo he got busted for a dui. >> i did not see the tesla theic. >> you got to go where would you get a tesla, you got to love tesla. the teslaaryans love tesla i don't know it. right here the tesla -- right here >> it's like the mike tyson you know. >> yeah. a face that too. for me i wouldn't go above, i'd stop here. i like neck tattoos. . >> is that too personal a question do you have a tattoo in. >> i wear a tie every day for a reason fought like john if i want to show someone my tattoo, i got to know them pretty well. thanks, dom. >> did you buy the tesla whistle? do you know about the tesla whistle? >> hisson. >> tell me about that. >> there was a $50 whistle that elon musk put on sale last night. you can't buy the whistle
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anymore. it sold out. now it's on ebay for five times the amount. >> no way! >> the whistle >> like a silver whistle until. >> it's literally a physical whistle. it's supposed to look i think like one of the cars and has sort -- >> did it have any function, form follows function? is there any reason? >> blow the whistle on tesla that's the thing. >> short space, the shorts >> if you want to show your support for tesla, you go with the face tattoo, in my view. >> there it is >> you are really much more committed. much more committed with them. >> very elegant looking. >> it looks like the truck >> you wear a tie every day for the same reason i wear pants every day. no at t
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tats no tats on us >> the panel was a close vote, voted 13-10 to recommend emergency authorization of a drug to treat adults with mild-to-moderate symptoms. the drug meets final authorization before it would be made available to the public on an emergency basis merck originally said it was more than 50% effective in preventing hospitalizations and deaths a mo re ro butt discussion says it was only 30%. there was discussion whether the risk-reward has a benefit. it prompts the virus to mutate and prohibit the replication and spread some doctors worry it can mutate in a way that makes vaccines less effective we will talk to dr. got
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gottlieb he will be joining us coming up in just a little bit meantime, coming up, after this, fed chairman j. powell saying the fed's bond buying taper could happen faster despite worries of a new covid variant. we will be talking the fed and much more with the czar ceo peter orzag. plus a quick check on the markets ahead of all that, still in the green the do you throne 300 points, s&p 500 up 57 points we're back after this. >>
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. the federal reserve chairman j. powell making it clear inflation is front and center and tapering the bond buying program could happen faster, despite the threat of the omicron variant. steve leishman joins us. that tone caught a lot of people off guard, steve. >> yeah, it was a surprising embrace by fed chair powell to a faster taper now, it's the likely call for the december meeting it does raise the question of what happened in the past month to warrant such a quick change in policy. after all, remember the fed just announced the taper in early november well, here's what powell explained yesterday. >> at this point the economy is very strong and inflationary pressures are high and is,
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therefore, appropriate in my view to consider wrapping up the taper of our asset purchases, which we actually announced at the november meeting, perhaps a few months sooner. i expect we will discuss that at our upcoming meeting in a couple of weeks. >> two data points stand out showing more widespread and job numbers upped the prior months and shows little improvement in americans coming back to work. that helped lead to the biggest surprise, his shift that another wave of the virus could be inflationary >> the recent rise in covid-19 cases and the emergence of the omicron variant, poses downside risks to unemployment and increased uncertainty. for your concerns about the virus could reduce people's willingness in person which would slow progress in the labor
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market and intensify supply chain disruptions. >> other change, political support for fighting inflation, right after powell talked about the faster taper democratic senator mark warner endorsed the change. powell is back on the hill today. there is no reason he will reverse his stance he said it twice yesterday so it wasn't a mistake a faster taper was the message becky. >> we still have the question of whether the rest of the fed-voting members on the fomc will go along with him what is your thought on that 23 heard from a few of them. we're also talking about some new members that will be there, too. the voting changes next year >> that's true i can't answer that question, i'm always excited when i am prepared for a question you ask. i am starting to realize whatever the smartest possible question is, will you ask it when i was looking up fed speak earlier today, a couple things,
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rafael bostic he said on friday after we knew about omicron, he was still in favor of a faster taper. mary daly, fed president one of the biggest doves on the committee. she said she could see a talk about thinking about a faster taper. before that, clara, the vice chair and others on the committee were moving that way the only person who hadn't spoken was powell h he had not spoken since november 1st and 2nd. so he was quiet until yesterday. that's why there was this big surprise if you were paying attention to what fed officials were saying i feel pretty good we reported this in a pretty strong way that the fed tore center ought committee, especially when doves like daly move to that center and say, you know what, we're in favor of a faster taper. that was the drift of the policy committee. >> i'm looking tatrotation for the members in 2022. it will be new york, cleveland, boston, st. louis, kansas city that's not exactly a dovish
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bunch. >> right that itself perfect observation, becky. you get cleveland on there, you get estra george on there from kansas city. our friend bullard has been the leading edge of thinking of the virus being potentially inflationary another wave of the virus being inflationary we don't know who the president will appoint you can imagine but does that matter when you have democrats saying you know what, fighting inflation, a faster taper is the right way to fwochlt so there is consensus, bipartisan consensus i think the fed will draw this fastner fighting inflation. >> steve, thank you. we will continue this conversation, joining us to talk about the markets and china change, the czar peter, it's great to see you this morning. i am sure you have been watching
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these hearings, if you can put your walk hat on you are probably happy not to be there is there trying to ditch that >> getting your hat back on, what do you make of j. powell what he said yesterday and is he late at this point >> so let me be a bit of an outlier. i think j. powell is doing a great job. the haven't he is waiting to see incoming evidence, this transition from a very, very expansionary monetary policy to a normal one is a very hard thing to pull off. it's right for him to be responding to incoming data. so i think we need to put things in context first, you know, moving the beginning of the taper by a few months is not a few years. it's a few months. it is in a few months. the second thing that has been lost in all of this is his and the fed's staff estimates for inflation in 2022. sort of where we're going to
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wiped up next year hasn't really moved that much. and so i think it's good that he drop the transit ore term. that was confusing no one knew what it meant or how long, what does it mean? in terms of what he's expecting for 2022, he is still around 2%. which is much lower than most of the, you know, media hoopla would suggest. >> you also have played the role of healthcare banker so, as we try to think about this variant and also think about the markets, i am curious about how you are thinking how they intersect right now >> well, they clearly intersect. the market is responding to a lot of uncertainty about omicron, look, i think this is pretty simple. until the world is vaccinated, the virus has the opportunity to mutate and evolve and there is always the risk. let's hope it's not the case with regard to omicron we don't know yet.
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but there is always the possibility because it's brewing in a largely unvaccinated area of the world that it comes back to bite the more vaccinated areas of the world and that's the fundamental problem with not vaccinating the whole globe. that's point one point two is, let's not forget the massive advances and the really exciting news on antiviral pills. if we can get more vaccinated and the anti-viral pills that look so promising. at least one of them does approved and into use, i think the market will, you know, not as much the fear from this virus. >> but the question i ask you is, we live in a country where there are no vaccine mandates. as you know, the president, president biden is trying to pursue that for companies that have over 100 employees, losing, by the way, at least at the moment in court, the idea we can't even do this here. i don't know if you saw jim cramer trending on twitter,
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saying we should have a government mandate across the board, the military should do it and everybody in the u.s. should be mandated. but we can't even do this here how can we ever expect to do this across the globe? >> well, i think the issues are much different here and in a lot of the developing world. there it still is ac says and supply that is, at least, a part of the problem here as you point out, that is not the issue we live in a highly polarized political environment. it's really sad and unfortunate this issue has become so polarized because it shouldn't have been. it's unfortunate i think both for us as collectively and for individuals who too late realize they should have gotten vaccinated because they get infected and realize they made a mistake. >> you always have been someone who thought about financial incentives, especially around
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healthcare do you have any thoughts how you would solve this one >> there are lots of possibilities. i don't think the fundamental issue and various states have tried, you know, payments for getting vaccinated i think what we're pointing to, at least in the u.s. and again this is different than in the developing world is a world in which if an issue becomes polarize and it becomes almost more of a cultural thing there is no amount of money that can solve that maybe there can occasionally be situations in paying someone to get vaccinated or penalizing them works it does appear, for example, that requiring a vaccine in order to get into movie theaters and restaurants, that has some effect so that's a form of an incentive. but i think fundamentally, this is at least in the u.s. more of a cultural issue >> and then i want to ask you about your day today because i know you are putting on a conference. >> yes, that's what i really wanted to talk about.
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>> and creating a hub around climate. explain what you are doing >> so we're starting the climate center, laz ardard it's very focused on corporate finance. what is the implication of both the business as usual path and what we might do to try to alter that path on company's cost of capital, on their, you know, market reaction to mna transactions, on things in boardrooms and c-suites, we are getting asked every time so this morning, for example we are releasing the most comprehensive analysis to date of how equity marks respond to greenhouse gas emissions the short answer is, that is that carbon discount is being priced in already, so, the higher your emissions, the lower your stock multiple. all else equal that carbon discount varies significantly across market caps and sectors. so if you are a large cap
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company in energy or industrials, are that carbon discount that is how much your multiple comes down as your emissions goes up is much larger than for smaller companies in other sectors. there will be more such research in us in the years to come. >> so the question, though, i was going to make, could you had advise a lot of companies on na. how often do you sit around thinking about buying this company? you know what, the gift you profile this company is not that great, maybe we don't want to buy it i'm not talking in the context of energy companies. can i see in that context, i will actually sell a lot of this stuff. but in the broader context >> yeah, well, it varies, obviously. so as you noted in merge, obviously, it does come up a lot in industrials, it will come up. it varies across the sectors and i think we're going to, in fact, one of the next things we
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will be analyzeing is you can imagine we're all used to accretive and dilutive deals depending on the target and acquirer you can think of carbon accretive and is the earnings higher or lower at the target relative to the acquirer and does the market respond differently to that. so that is one of the next things we will be putting out early next year is a comprehensive analysis to that question the short answer is it does come up it varies from sector to sector. it varies depending on the market cap of the company, too, which kind of corresponds to equity value findings that we are releasing today. >> it's fascinating work we look forward to following it all. thanks >> we have some breaking news right now from exxonmobile it's providing a long-term business outlook now for the six-year particular,
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exxonmobile is say saying it will increase spending that's what the plan is over the next six years the company says that the plan supports the corporate strategy of continued cost savings and investment in low cost of supply or lower emission products exxon now expects to double earnings and cash flow by 2027 versus 2019. the company announced it's on track to meet the greenhouse gas reduction plans by the end of this year four years ahead of schedule exxonmobile plans capital investments in the range of 20 to $25 billion a year through 2027 that's important and the market will be listening for. as we saw, oil prices climb, the question was would more spend on capex? they say clearly they will have what they called disciplined capital investments of 20 to $25 billion a year
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exxonmobile saying our strategy is designed to create shareholder value and remain flexible to future policy changes and technology advances associated with this transition. when we return, dr. scott gottlieb on the omicron variant and its spread that interview in just a few minutes as we he ed to break, though, a look at fax leaders and laggards right now, net users leading the way by almost 4% we will talk tech a little later. "squawk box" will be right back. don't be shy, now. i like that prime cut. -aflac! -i love my gold jacket, but that aflac blue feels so right. when you feel right, you coach right.
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still to come, the cdc saying it plans to toughen testing requirements for international travelers. we will talk about the latest covid knew with dr. scott gottlieb many of the names were hit hard on the news of the omicron variant. we'll get the best picks and a view anyway at your portfolio with a top analyst stay tuned u wahi "ua box" on cnbc
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welcome back to "squawk box" live from the nasdaq in time's square, filings showing kathy woods, ark investment management bought shares of twitter one day after dorsey stepped down, snapping up 1.1 million shares worth $49 million as of
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yesterday's close. you can catch wood on a special cnbc pro talks today at 10:00 a.m. eastern, go to cnbc.com/pro to sign up >> okay. meantime, let's talk about elon musk around jeff bezos ceos and insiders are selling at a record pace. robert. >> hey, andrew, the latest to share his shares nadella for personal financial planning and diversification reasons. he joins other ceos in what is turning out to be a record year for insider stock sales. ceos and insiders have unloaded $69 billion in stocks so far this year. that's up 28% over last year's total, up 80% over the ten-year average. we're likely to see more sales
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if december. that tends to be a big month for tax selling. much of this is being driven by the super sellers. elon musk now up to $10 billion in his sales with about half going to those options-related taxes and the rest for a straight cashout. jeff bezos also at around 10 billion for the year that's flat with last year but five times his 2019 sales. the walton's also big sellers of walmart with $6 billion followed by mark zuckerberg those four sellers alone accounting for nearly 40% of this year's total, this is a top heavy phenomena. one of the reasons is taxes, along the threat of higher federal taxes, washington state is about to impose a new 7% tax on capital gains nadella states 20 billion by selling now. bezos is saving 700 million in state taxes but by selling this
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year rather than next. guys >> wow so you think, i mean, clearly, the tax piece of this has to be a xont of it then how do you explain some of the others from california in. >> look, i think the federal side of this, we know that there is going to be that 5% tax on income over $10 million or likely 8% tax on income over 25. so whether you're in california or texas or florida, it's likely you are going to see some kind of increase on taxes and high earners. so a lot of people getting ahead of that on the federal side. on the state side, it's a bargain, especially if you live in washington. >> robert frank, fascinating appreciate it. when we come back, we're being to talk to dr. scott gottlieb about the global spread of this new variant. what it all means. he joins us after the break. the future and day two of the
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fed chair powell's testimony, right now looking up 335 points. nasdaq looking to open higher as well s&p 500 up about 60 points we'll be right back after this i've spent centuries evolving with the world. some changes made me stronger. others, weaker.
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welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. take a look, futures are sharply high their morning, gaining back not all of the losses from yesterday. the dow yesterday was down more than 600 points, giving back 340 points in the pre-is exthis morning. the nasdaq sharing big gains there, a gain of 252 points. if you check out some of the reopening stocks today as well, you will see what goes down does come back up at least that's been the case lately airbnb up 2.3% carnival up 2.8% expedia and marriott all looking well >> the cdc plans as to have testing requirements the new order would shorten the time line to one day before departure to the u.s stricter than the previous three-day policy for vaccinated travellers joining us now, dr. scott gottlieb, former commissioner and cdc contributor and serves
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on the boards of illumina and pfizer the i saw comments from the w.h.o. i don't know we've mention them yet. actually i see where you are sending them to. at this point it looks like some of the omicron cases at least ann anecdotally the early indications are it might not be any more virulent or that it could actually be somewhat mild. have you seen evidence pointing that way >> look, i saw the statement from the w.h.o. official and the reporting out of various countries, you know, we have totial, we've only diagnosed 250 cases of this new variant at this point there is a presumption the growth in cases in south africa is surprised of this omicron variant. the reality is they were having a mini delta surge we done know how brisk before this emerged and had an uptick
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in c12 it's been bouncing around affect for quite some time. in repeat weeks it seems to have increase in prevalence we don't know the cases they're seeing is this new variant we also have to keep in mind that testing is way up in africa and so people made a lot of the fact that case went from around 2500 to 4,000 over the last 24 hours. well, testing went from 20,000 tests to over 40,000 tests so the positivity rate went down right now the current epidata consistent with a wide range of possibility so inferences are being drawn to fit to that data. it is possible the data is just wrong. so the inferences we are trying to conform to the information we see themselves are wrong. >> doctor, i am not in the habit of reading medical journals anymore like the new england journal of medicine, the ceo dr. gen schleifer september me one yesterday about
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immunosuppressed individuals, unfortunately, this individual had koid for 1covid for 156 days during that time, there were a myriad of mutations within that individual something like 30, 40, 50 changes unfortunately, the individual finally passed away. almost like an incubator for variants and dr. schleifer thinks instead of it being maybe person-to-person and mutating into a different variant, that it could be happening in immunosuppressed people. that's where some of the variants come from we need to realize that and address that the only by a i could think about it would be through therapeutic vaccines, because a vaccine will not help someone immunosuppressed don't we need therapeutics to deal with this >> we do and len is right the variants seem to arise in
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people who become chronically infected with this virus the people who become chronically affected are those who are immunocomprised and can't clear it one thing we should be dock, len would agree with this is using proposal laktically the monoclonal drug. people should be getting those on a regular basis to prevent themselves from getting infected we know they won't responds well so we basically can give them an immune system in a bottle. with respect to some of the data around the idea of this emerging in immunocompromised patients. what now appears to be the case and the lineage of this variant, it first emerged over a year ago and then the trail goes cold then it reemerges very recently in the form of this outbreak of this new variant it's possible we are picking up one cluster and this variant emerged some time ago. maybe it was subclinical
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it wasn't causing infection. we weren't detecting it. it is very curious the lineage goes cold over a year. the two theorys put forward to explain that, maybe it was in an animal reservoir and mutated there and reemerged sometime later or maybe it was in a chronically affected individual for an extended length of time their theory is designed to fit a very incomplete data set at this point. >> doctor, if the currents boosters and vaccines aren't going to be as effective against this variants and if we assume that there is going to be a more varptd variants in the future if you vaccinate everyone to the current variant, are we going to have to come back, if we want universal vaccination, won't we have to do that for every variant if we don't help immunosuppressed people from generating variants? won't it be effective if it's
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ineffective for the new variants >> look, we should be helping immunosuppressed people. we should be using the monoclonal antibody more broadly. it's a tragic thing we haven't used those aggressively. so for the variants have shown significant efficacy against a whole range of variants. the vaccine still demonstrated efficacy there is no reason to believe we will lose them afence this one eventually, we have to migrate the vaccines, that's while prevalence is still high, this is likely to become an am vaccine for a lot of the public. >> becky is here, why would bonds sell, say this is really going to be bad an these things aren't going to work why would you go out and say that if there is no reason, why would he go off not a term i can use anymore. why would he go out of the main stream and say that if he didn't
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know that? or is he just talking to people, talking out of not really in a position to talk that way? >> look. i don't know what data he is looking at i am sure he is looking at data that is giving him that indication the people i talked torkts you n to, you noted, feel reasonably confident, there is no guarantee, feel reasonably confident this vaccine will provide a meaningful amount of efficacy they are basing that on modeling and simulation and expertise the third dose, you get a broad anti-body response we said you develop what we call polyclonalesque. so there is a lot of antibodies that won't neutralize this new variant. there are a lot that are preserved. base on that and reductions of the efficacy of vaccines against other variants there is a high degree of confident, will it be the same 95%? programs not
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will you have a meaningful amount of efficacy we will not lose the vaccines. >> israel has some data they are looking another that suggests the same it's early data, surthing the same thing i want to follow up quickly on how you said we should be using these monoclonal anti-bodies for immunocompromised people len said they had the chance to do that with the fda for six months with your understanding, why hasn't it been approved? >> i'm not sure, quite frankly because a lot of the people who are vulnerable in immunocompromised have become prisoners in their own home. they recognize their vulnerability and a scared to go outside of their homes this drug could be allowing many individuals live a more normal life there is about 3ple in this country compromised. all could be eligible to receive these drugs. there is certainly a cohort
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within that, if are you on active treatment for cancer, getting a monthly infusion could make sense i suspect the fda will act on this application i think it makes sense they are being maile prophylactically so a lot of patients are getting it given an eoa for this narrow use makes clinical sense. >> doctor, i was curious on a practical basis, since we have now heard about this variant, whether you are changing any of your own behavior or advising others to do so either in the workplace or otherwise i know you are triple vax boosted. i am, too, i have been spending time vaccinated indoors and the like and whether that should change also i know there are people making travel plans around christmas and beyond there is a whole conference series, we were talking about davos and other things
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what do you think you should be telling people what they should be doing >> look, i'm not changing. it's a foregone conclusion this is here. looking at how this is in various other countries. i think it's inevitable. that doesn't mean it's spreading at any aappreciable level. i'm not convinced it's more contagious, more vir leapt and spreading more than delta. based on a very limited epidata out of south africa at this point. so i don't know that this is going to race around a major city if we do find an individual case or a cluster of cases in terms of international travel, my concern around traveling internationally wouldn't be coming into contact with this new variant and being affected by it, based on what i know now i am not more fearful than any covid variant. my concern is getting stuck outside the country. either you get covid while you are traveling, unfortunately, you can't get back inside the u.s. or you get stuck in some kind of quarantine situation
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i'd be mindful if you plan to leave the countries. have a plan b. be prepared to stay there or get if touch with medical personnel if, in fact, you get stuck. >> it's so cold in davos so, len, don't tell me that. pizza. pizza, three meals a day for -- doctor, that's my own problem. let me finish with this. so you saw some of this stuff with federal judges, courts, healthcare mandates and there are some setbacks that we saw yesterday. your current thinking on the most effective way to get everyone in this country vaccinated start on one side with its personal freedom, it's someone's choice, all the way to a universal vaccine mandate that the military is involved with. where do you think we should try to get the most, what should our
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efforts be focused on to get everyone vaccinated in this country? >> yeah, look, i think there is 10% of americans that will fight vaccination regardless of what policy meant most of them had covid the ones who haven't will. we need to focus on the other 85/90% that means getting people boolsd boosted. we need to shift our focus and instead of trying to implement more mandates. i think at this point they're counterproductive and focus on the people and the people who aren't, a small number of americans had covid. they'll get it they will have immunity from that about 83% of adults haed a dose of vaccine 85%, we'll get to 85% quite easily that's a significant number. we have to look at immunity from the population it's true we have lower vaccination rates him we both had a lot more infection when you combine the immunts
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induced by vaccine we have a lot of total immunity relative to other countries, maybe second to the uk which also had a lot of spread and also has distributed a lot of vaccines. so that is a factor here we've had people who were affected and vaccinated and people who were just vaccinated. >> a very quick question our definition of vaccinated is anybody that's got one shot of j&j and two things if you are more than six months out, what happens? are you still considered vaccinated should we change our definition that you have to be boosted as well >> they're not going to change the definition for the foreseeable future i think there is a lot of policy tied around the definition of whaf it means to be fully vaccinated for most americans, vuling these new variants emerging, when they make an individual judgment, i think it will include a booster, if you are well more than six months out from your original vaccine and an older american who is more vulnerable
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>> dr. scott gottlieb, thank you. i didn't get to talk to you about merck. that's not, of course, now, then i'd be asking you about pfizer, on the board of pfizer, i don't need it today. anyway thank you. and a great day to have you on by the way, he's on the board of pfizer i don't know if we mentioned that >> we always have more questions for him than we have time. >> that's right. big tech stocks, they hired in yesterday's trading the nasdaq finished down more than 1.5%. although, it is bouncing bark. alphabet and microsoft, there was one bright spot. apple and its strong cash flows surging more than 3% in the session. joining us right now with his top six in the sector is mark mull haney, evercore's head of research and his latest book is out titled "nothing but net. it's out right now smart question for you i notice don't cover apple, watching the activity yesterday,
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we can't call them fang stocks anymore. they've changed their name we need to call them moo ma stocks the mamaa. what happens there the shift away from those stocks looking at apple as the safe haven what would you tell people >> i think investors in these kinds of times where you have uncertainty over viruses and then instead of inflation could be rising, therefore, rates could be rising aggressively i think people will rotate once they get back, we will rotate to the highest quality tech names some apple would fall under that so would google, so with amazon, so with facebook so the internet stocks i look at, facebook and amazon remain my two top picks i think it's compelling on both those names. they have good stories going into 2022. i think they can be somewhat recovery placed. that's your opportunity. they have been amongst in the highest quality internet stocks for five years i think they will be the next
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five years on these corrections you buy leaders like that. >> let me throw out a theory we had mike willson from morgan stanley on it's pretty compelling he said, look, a lot of these companies will do just fine. we could be facing a situation next year where the market evaluation, itself, is reconsidered, where investors look at that and say maybe it's time to get back to more normal market valuations, because we've gotten to the high end of things if that's the case, have you big companies that still get punished, what do you think? >> if you have the highest quality names, consumer tech, high mar jirns, high levels of cash they're repurchasing stock google and facebook are aggressively buying back stock, we're talking in the tens the of billions a year. i this i the market will stick with those high quality names. ap testimony way it trade was a little hell. when times are you tough, you
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stay with the highest names. they happened to be in tech. microsoft, apple, google i look for when they're dislocated i don't think google dislocated. they can grind higher. facebook has a little controversy. that creates the upside. amazon does, too, it creates the upside. >> you made a deal, the covid winners are winning. the covid losers are still losing is there a place where that sticks out in the. >> it may not work, it's uber. if there is one stock, one category, drakally below levels, ride share secretary 40% below pre-covid levels so hopefully there is a beyond covid moment when it does, and an activity kind of returns to norm sometime hopefully next year, we are back to regular work commutes and business travel. there is a fundamental gap up at
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google, that leads to a rerating of the stock they generated positive free cash flow. that was the overhang on uber. they addressed that this quarter. we think the pre-cash flow will bounce for here for names like uber that's where you can see the risk/reward is extremely attractive on uber. >> see you later this morning, thank you. >> thanks, becky >> okay. coming up, we have to get our first read on november jobs with the adp employment report ahead of the big friday report plus veteran investors jeff vinik will tell us how he with putting mo into work in this volatile market. later, we will talk about pepply chain issues and what to exct this holiday season stay tuned you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc
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. good morning, welcome to the final month of 2021. average to big hits yesterday when fed chair j. powell teased a faster bopped taper program. in just a few minutes, we will talk markets and stock picking in the current environment with investor jeff vinik. a real time check on the supply chain bogged down by 2019. showing signs of progress. the ceo of union pacific will join us. all that plus new adp job data the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now
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♪ . yes, we're more than halfway through the week >> and more than 11-12ths of the year. >> that's what's weird, i want the weeks to go quickly. >> you don't want the years to go quickly >> welcome back to cnbc, "squawk box," live in time's square. counterintuitive i'm joe kernon along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin at 7:30 we were halfway through. >> this morning. >> yes u.s. equity futures a at this hour, let's see, friday down 900. monday up 300. yesterday down 600 today up 322 and you can see the nasdaq up
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238 or so. s&p up 57-and-a-half treasury yields after j. powell said enough with the transitory word did he say use temporary or transitory >> it's time to retire transitory >> we admit it's not transitory. >> yes >> or does it mean stop using that word? >> stop using that word and it means different things to different people. >> why are we at 47 on the ten year >> he's admitted ig. he's admitting it. >> well, then maybe rates need to go up, i guess on the short end we have been pointing out. maybe it doesn't happen on the long end that's why we're still we're not even close to two. we're not at 1.5 yet we have only be waiting like five years for that to happen. >> right waiting for him to do it and continuing to wait it is just a little under 90 minutes until the opening bell
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on wall street dom chu is here. he has to look at the top pre-market movers. it's like reversal day whatever went down yesterday goes up today. >> becky, they used to tell me when i first became a parent, the days are long. these days have been fast as well because we have been dealing with so much of the market volatility. i think i blink twice and the day is-over. this morning, yes, the bouncebacks are severe we have a few names in the mix on company-specific news we'll start with payments processer mastercard a lot has been made about thin tech companies hitting 52-week lows, showing real weakness overtime mastercard hit a 53-week low it's up 1.5% now the board has authorize an 11% boost to its quarterly dividend payment. it's going to add $8 billion to the stock buyback program. it's still got 4.5 billion from a previous authorization when your shares hit low, maybe
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you want to buy back that's what mastercard is doing and a certain degree for master card today i want to check out shares of amvarela they are responsible for camera chips for things like smart phone cameras and ka ras on computers and everything else. gopro, that sort of thing. they are up 15% right now. it reported results after the closing bell yesterday that both beat analysts for profits and revenues this company may be seen as a possible leading indicator for smartphone demand and a pandemic beneficiary as people tended to do more stuff at home. they're up 15% right now as we do here in this third hour of "squawk," oftentimes, a check on the most popular ticker searches from yesterday's full session amidst that volatility apple had it positive yesterday,
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adding to those gains today, salesforce down more than 6.5% moderna, tesla, one of those positive stocks in yesterday's session, nvidia was well those are in the top ten, as always, the rest of the top ten is on my twitter feed. i'll send things back over to you. >> at the domino thank you, mr. domino. our first guest of the hour is a big one joining us is billionaire investor and owner of the tampa bay lightning. we're going to talk about tampa, itself, in a few minutes first, jeff, we have to ask you about the markets over the past few days how you have been thinking about it maybe what you have been doing about it >> obviously, it's a volatile time with good reason with the omicron variant out there. i can't predict the long, the short-term i can't predict exactly what is going to happen with this variant again. but i am optimistic that hopeful
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that the current, the current vaccine provides some protection at least based on what i'm reading. if not, that you know these rna vaccines have been incredible. they'll hopefully get an ad to us relatively quickly. again, we have learned to adjust so i don't see a significant economic hit due to it although, certain sectors like airlines do get hit. but when i look out longer term, longer term let's say for the next zero to three, zero to five years. i'm quite constructive on the financial markets. let's talk about inflation transitory, not transitory those are just word. the market has diskuptd lot of what j. powell said yesterday him when you look at inflation, two things are going on that's important. one on the labor front there are still seven or eight, 9 million people out of the labor force. all of them are not coming back in most of them are it is my belief that the
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government has flooded so many people with money that some individual have been able to you know work on their own, become self-employed and others are just slow to come back to the labor force. i do think we will see many millions of people rejoin the labor force over the next several months to several years. maybe two, 300,000 a month that will take the edge off, the tightness in labor and labor inflation. uber on the last conference call talked about it being a littlese year to find drivers on materials and on goods inflation, et cetera, service inflation, services labor will thaep as i said, on goods inflation, i think we are in one of the biggest pre-buying, buying, stock pyleing, got to get inventories panic that we've had in history, we're right in the middle of it i think we are over producing because we're producing not only for inventories are replenishing on top of that we are going to
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see the other side of that sometime in the next three months, six months, 12 months, 18 months. i see a significant slowdown at some time over the next three, four months, which will take edge off price pressures so if i had to look out, i think the bond market understands this, that's why rates stay so low. if i had to look out over the twekt 12 to 36 months, i believe inflation will be 2-and-a-half percent. i think that will bevery friendly for the profit for profits and for the financial markets, so i'm quite positive looking out. >> does that mean that j. powell has been right about this? does that mean that we have been debating, getting rid of this word transitory. is it really transitory then after all? >> i don't know, we try to define transitory. i think what it means perhaps on a long-term basis, we are moving from really low inflation of 1 to 2%, maybe 2 to 3% range over
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the next five years, they may be a little higher after that so i think there might be a slow turn going on. think about the -- i won't spend time going i think we are at a turn there but how you want to, what you want to call it, i don't think is as are el as the fact there are upwards precious on inflation right now, materials, commodities, energy, labor, that i this are going to become less intense over the next 24 months and give us a nice respite and a period of calm, which will be great for the economy. >> the respite part, if we actually replenish inventories and effectively over replenish that could create it's own slowdown, too, on the other side. >> i see that i see a manufacturing slowdown in theory, you can even have a manufacturing recession on the other side i'm not necessarily predicting that the consumer has never been in
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better shape so i do not see a recession in the overall economy in the u.s. tore world economy but i see you know a period of again, moderate inflation that's manageable and acceptable and moderate economic growth maybe two to three percent real growth in the later parts of '22, '23, '24. eventually goldilocks again. >> let's play stock picker again for a second is this a bought by the indexes? if it's a goldilocks moment, everybody wins or do you think you have to get selected >> well, i'm always for that's what my career has been based on 40 years, i'm for finding sectors with economic share and good stocks, selling at a reasonable valuation so i think it is, it's always a stock market there are always stocks doing well, others not doing well. i recommend that going forward i don't like to trust spec names. i think the opportunities and a
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whole host of sectors, corporate america is brilliantly managed on average and i think you will find, there will be opportunities. >> without hitting names, directly, though give us a couple sectors where you think the opportunity will lie? >> i'll give one sector that a couple of sectors that specifically i like. one would be related to the digital economy. the services, the consulting companies that you know again provide their service to these companies, not the clad hardware or software companies necessarily. they're lagging the implementation of the systems that were put in place and their business is really taking off and another one i would talk about like the advertising industry, which for the same reasons because of the digital economy is having a little of a renaissance here after being very, very slow growth for the last five, ten years it's really starting to accelerate on a secular basis. the stocks on that are very cheap. >> you want to own numbers o
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numbersun financials very no in. >> i don't have a particularly strong financials. frankly, i think there is a lot of competition coming. that you can own a happened. of them that are doing particularly well. but i think it will be just a tough area to economically outperform for these companies in the years ahead a. lot of capital. >> by the way, are you a crypto guy? you are from florida are you not in miami, i know, are you a tampa guy. >> crypto is going crazy here in tampa. we haven't talked about that tampa is on fire right now i talked about tampa on cnbc for at least five years, maybe eight years. i said it was going to happen. it is what is going on in this city is incredible more than winning shorts championships. anywaying going back to crypto i lean positive toward crypto.
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i have crypto investments i got in years ago i tell you, i spent like six months trying to understand crypto and everything associated with a number of years ago i decided either i'm too old, too male or too something. i just really find it difficult to understand, so, i have it as a part of my portfolio, but i'm the last person you want to go to for advice. >> let's talk tampa real quick you go this $3.5 billion project you have been deploying down there, 50 acres in downtown tampa. >> yes, it's coming along great. we're just about done with phase i, which is three residential buildings, three office buildingsings the university of south florida school of med situation s. hotels, condos all of that we're finishing up, all is becoming occupied i mean the tailwind down here are incredible our office buildings, we're talking 7/800 square feet, almost fully occupied at
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represents above what anne anybody has paid in tampa. that's because conditions are so strong here. companies are moving here. every week, another technology company is moving here we have another office building ready to go that we'll start on hopefully pretty quickly we have such economic tailwind between the population, the knowledge-based jobs that are coming here and, you know, people want to be, still want to be in cities this is a great place to live and these tailwind should continue tampa to orlando to the space coast, the fastest area in the company in terms of economic growth over the next 10-to-20 years. >> i'm pushing to a "squawk" in tampa show there you go, jeff, we'll have to do it in person. >> you can come to our house we're happy to have you. >> great to see you. appreciate all your perspectives on the markets and tampa >> thanks, always a pleasure let's check the futures. we're getting ready for the adp, november jobs report
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you can see that we're coming down a little. still above 300, though, on the dow. 233 points on the nasdaq you can see the s&p indicated up about 56 points i guess since this affects the yield curve, probably let you know that the ten year is below 1.5% steve leishman has the number, which we westeren't allowed to y until now. >> 3534,000. they were down their october forecast by a thousand to just 570,000. as you will see, this has been better than expectations, which were 506,000 it's roughly inline with the non-farm rpayroll. you had good employment in the good sector.
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excellent performance in the sector let's look at it first by size you will see pretty well distributed. you had this surge in employment 277. 142 on medium. 115,000 on small business. now, this is the interesting part by sector, leisure hospitality up a strong 136,000. trade and transport. that's been a good sector, also perhaps around the holidays, it gets stronger. education coming back. that has lagged in the government report. look at the numbers in manufacturing by any measure, those are good numbers joe, i am seeing good numbers also in the high frequency da that that suggests the street with 573,000 could be a little light. the ukg numbers were strong. one more note is that adp did a much better job last month it's been way off during pandemic as has the consensus of overall economists they all do a better job last
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month. so maybe we're doing more normal now. you go to tampa, i will take you don't to my great hawks down there. >> you got tampa haunts? why do you have tampa haunts >> one of my first jobs out of school was to be a reporter for the st. petersburg times in the tampa office working on real estate which is so interesting. >> i knew you worked at the st. peters berg times. you know what i thought? lenen grad i thought you were worked, you were in moscow >> there aren't many i was, i have the moscow times and st. petersburg time, which are different countries, though, joe. it's confusing it's amazing anybody hired me after seeing that resume >> that's confusing. now, does this mean that the jobs numbers are coming on friday steve >> the jobs numbers are coming
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on friday, which i believe are you halfway to getting to, joe maybe more than halfway. >> 51%, maybe 52 yeah i knew they were coming friday i wanted to bring everyone in. >> i can tuck you in precisely if you
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exxonmobile out with an important update david faber joins us on that front. >> hey, much of this was things you discussed of the last quarterly earnings, an important parents we are by the way on the houston campus of the company. that the board has signed off on everything in terms of the numbers and what they're looking for, in terms of their spending on various efforts to reduce carbon if their business and obviously new technologies that will capture carbon as well. they do reiterate many of the things you discussed with mr. woods not that long ago with capex spending, 20-to-$25 being.
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low above the range they called 16-to-19 billion and of course they also point out plans by 025 by the end of this year. the key things is the flexibility for fueling production as well making sure it is focused on spending the national capital when deemed appropriate and the return on that capital on all these projects $15 billion is what they're seeing on greenhouse gas over the next six years they say well maintaining those discipline capital investments, of course increased the dividend last quarter the buyback as well, all the things that you have discussed
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with mr. woods not that long ago, becky as you well know, the company is under the microscope of course in many ways given the changes of the board and i think it's important that the board as currently comprised has signed off on this plan that this company is sharing with us this morning. >> they've talked about that lower capex. it's interesting that they emphasize that, they're going to maintain the discipline there. there are so many questions as oil prices got back above $80. when would they actually spend some more capex in order to drill more or to kind of take advantage of these higher prices discipline has been what shareholders seem to have wanted for a long time. it's got to be tempting when you see those prices pick up i'd love to hear more detail just based on that >> yeah. we hope to bring you that detail when we sit down on "squawk on the street" in about an hour or
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so from now. that number is one they shared with the analysts during the third quarter call that continues to be the target range. they are going to be stressing their flexible, given the volatility we were talking $80 per oil recently now we've hit as low as 65 in repeat days with concerns of the latest variant this may well be the future and one in which flexible in terms of the exam expenditures will be key in terms of being able to quickly move when it's appropriate and perhaps not as well, so the job is to maintain i tain those shareholders returns and continue to reduce death, withty company says it is maintaining well in getting that leverage ratio down. >> the six-year plan they have is interesting because there is so much that changes. not just the flexibility they need to deal with the oil markets and different governments. that's a tricky thing to navigate, too. >> it is you know, there are certain
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parts of the world where there is a potential return from focusing on reducing not just the missions from your current operations but things like carbon capture where you know exxon is very much focused in terms of their efforts you are right, it's different incentives in different places there is not one as we know sort of global incentive here as yet to pursue various technologies in terms of getting the double digit returns that mr. wood indicated in the last conference call they were age for on this $15 billion investment they are making. >> you have the volatility we have seen in energy prices, the return of a new dell that covid variant. you got what's happening with all of these things. so we will be paying very close attention, david, watching you in the next hour thanks, david. >> great coming up, what would a faster fed taper mean for both fixed income and equity investors? we have two top mark voices
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ready to weigh in. then with the holiday shopping season officially under way, we will talk about how the supply chain is holding up, with the ceo of union pacific stay tuned you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc, live from the nasdaq market site in time's square no ozzy osbourne crazy taken anymore. i don't know, sad. we'll be right back. we'll be right back.
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making a plan might feel like homework, but it will help you and your family stay safe during an emergency. . welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. kathy woods' ark management bought a million shares on tuesday. at the close yesterday, twitter shares were down 6.5% on the week the stock coming one day after jack dorsey stepped down the ark finished in november down 13% we have an important note. sara eisen will be speaking with cathie wood live in the latest edition of cnbc pro talks. you can sign up right now at
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cnbc cnbc.com/pro and become a member of it all. >> the futures are bouncing back sharply this morning after the major averages suffered big losses to end the month yesterday, mike santoli joins us with more on the market action what goes up comes down. what goes down comes up, it seems like, mike. >> we get intoage tatd periods where volatility interrupts. we seen a little stabilization inside the market. today you wake up you have another day you are not seeing global exponential spread or bad news and have s&p 500 down three-quarters down. we will have a little bounce we never got down to the levels people were looking at, 35, average market high. the market tried to consolidate
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around that point, sure, we're oversold on a short-term basis market should bounce we are in december i do think a lot of the heavy selling got flushed away in the last few days. like i take a look at the small cap russell 2,000. it shows the interday move here the bounce we were getting yesterday it closed off its morning lows the russell let us down here will it create stabilization you see a long way to go before it gets back to the record levels to see things like treasury yields cooperate a. lot of talk about apple yesterday being unusual on the high yesterday. clearly, the biggest stock in the market had an effect what's the big order here. it seems like a catch-up move. apple vastly outperformed.
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i do think apple is anomalous. it's not really a bellwhether of everything going on at that moment it runs in its own street n. a sense a source of safety in itself. >> what are you calling the fang stocks i'm trying to name them mamaa stocks >> i don't mind that first of all, we have to consult with jim cramer he coined fang several years ago. we used the g, google has been alphabet a long time now i'm not sure we have to say with the legacy >> you are right, thanks, mike >> yeah. >> markets were hit hard yesterday after fed chair j. powell said this. >> at this point the economy is very strong and inflationary pressures are high and is, therefore, appropriate in my view to consider wrapping up the
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taper of our asset purchases, which we announced at the november meeting, perhaps a few months sooner. i expect we will discuss that at our upcoming meeting in a couple of weeks >> joining us with what all this means for stocks and bonds, valerie grant, a senior portfolio manager and president of street kumar global strategies vamry, do you follow new additions to the oxford dictionary every year? i'm surprised, jargon goes into that every year. can you take tans itory out? can you remove words is that possible is you can't do that can you what do you think he meant by that >> transitory, persistence, a lot of adjectives can describe inflation right now.
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certainly inflation is higher than i think anyone expect ltd it's likely to be higher than longer than expect ltd i do think as we get into the back half of last year, some will abate as the supply chain disruption go insurance to unwind hopefully that will be in tandem hopefully with a more normalized environment in terms of the pandemic as well but the one area i think is wage inflation. i think labor rates are going up that's actually a permanent change if you will in terms of how businesses should be thinking about their costs and their operations >> there is a saying don't make a forecast in how long it will take at the same time. are you the master of that you said 1% for 12 years or something. it went there. we finally got there
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now are you at 2%. how long will you stay with the ten year for that forecast in is there a bump along the way we've run into called omicron? >> joe, i am at 2% if not higher as we look at the coming months. that forecast i gave yousevera times at the beginning of this year has not changed the dee point is this, that the return of the virus, the return of the omicron does not protect the economy from high inflation rates. i say supply shortages will end soon and inflation will come down inflation has been deported by the central bank they stood by $105 become of bond payment include mortgage-backed securities and
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that, in turn, is pushing up an elderly hot market so i am not surprised at the returns. i have been saying to you on your program it is long overdue. i which six months ago, they had increased interest rates in mid-2021 that did not happen he is paying the price for it we will all pay the price for it in 2022, ending supply shortages doesn't do it. yes, i agree with valerie that wages are going up home prices are going up and represents follow prices with a lag of 12 months so you will see significant race increases you will see various commodity prices increase. just because you had the return of the virus, it doesn't mean
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the economy goes into inflation. that itself lesson we learned from the 1970s you can have the session and you can have inflation at the same time and that's what we are staring at, joe. >> valerie, it has been positive on many guests over the years, rising interest rates at least at the beginning can be bullish before equities, because it implies that there are good things happening in the economy. the under lying global economy are you still bullish and even in the face of tapering and possibly 2022 that sees some rate increases >> well, rising rates affect different times of stocks differently. right. because you have to look at whether you are focused on a more of a growth-on the other hand strategy or a value-oriented investment strategy rising rates in general are bad for growth stocks, long duration
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assets whereas the rising rates generally favor value-oriented stock. in general there are always stock specific. drivers of return as well. so it's important i think to maintain some level of ambulance in your portfolio between those things quite honestly, if are you in a position where you are uncertain for rates, neutralize the portfolio to that explosions dwrer exposure, having a broad diversediv diversification. that would be my call. >> joe go ahead >> i would say, joe, you can not talk about rate increases without talking about the tenor or the duration. that is exactly what happened from 1977 onward we have the short-term interest
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rates rise because the marks all run the fed which is behind the curve. so the short-term rates increase, expecting rate increases sooner than powell thought about. then the next thing that happens is that causes a recession the long end comes down. the entire everybody curve is going to shift up. so what you will have is, once again, a steepening of the yield curve sometime in late 2022 as we look towards a recovery, we will have interest rates normalize in relation to what we had with this policy that general powell and his colleagues have followed >> valerie, we actually had what seemed to be opposing forecasts what the new variant was for
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inflation. some said it would make them accommodative for longer others said they will bes will accommodative longer because it means more supply chain issues you do have a feel for what it actually means at this point it's early, i know we don't know what the variant does, does it make it worse inflation wise or supply chain wise or better >> i don't think it makes a huge difference we have to acknowledge there is a lot we don't know about this particular variant the reality is covid never went away you look at europe in terms of the infection rates in germany the spikes we've seen in the uk f. you look in parts of asia, in different parts of the world, covid has never gone away. it's still here in the u.s. and rising in specific cities and regions of the country so i think this idea covid went
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away, now it's back because of this new variant is a false nairtism it has not gone away. it is a strong i would say it has a dampening effect on output it limits the extent in which you can have a supply. that's my philosophy as relates to inflation if you have a surge in demand, which is what we have experienced but a constraint in terms of supply, by definition, prices will rise and that's essentially what we have been experi experiencing >> crazy sounds, i hear the music. a crazy thing, i think i will be okay nothing is going to fall >> thank you, valerie. >> thank you, all right. it's been too long to be continued. thank you. >> thank you we look forward to it. >> okay. when we come back, we will get
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jim cramer's take on the trading day. we will talk to him about his name trending last night with this call on vaccine mandates nationally by perhaps the military and union pacific ceo lance fritz will join us on the supply chain, consolidation in his industry and so much me thoran you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc
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welcome back to "squawk box. our grod friends jim cramer
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joins us now we want to talk markets where things are and a little exxon. i do want to talk to you real quick about your calm, which has got an lot of attention over the last 24 hours about a government pan date across the board for vaccines >> no, no, required vaccines not on life when i had to go to my high school i'll get a sugar cube to stop polio. we have it, the ability of a three he-shot regimen. what's the difference? that was president eisenhower. he said we have to wipe this disease out in order to be competitive. of course, talking about beating the russians i look at this and say, well, i look at this and say what's different? i keep hearing from people that gets the dixie crowd i know that's a fire board, it's not a states rights issue. we dealt with this effectively
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it didn't wipe out the rest of the world. so i'm trying to figure out why eisenhower is somehow questioned pause that's what are you doing. doctor, we have a judge kathleen williams in florida who said this is in the norwegian cruise line, saying there is no right in the constitution no not be vaccinated it's just not in there so i struggle, i say when in doubt, go with eisenhower. he seemed to be a good president. people called me nazi, in a theoretical construct, that's not really possible so i'm tired of some of the extreme january 6s, i'm really going there, andrew i listened to your questions again eisenhower, he is a republican mandated we do it. or required we do it why was that wrong should we have let the right to give people polio? it's not in the constitution
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>> so we had a republican congressman on this morning from florida. >> right. >> he would be vehement on the other side of this >> you can be vehemently wrong it's in the constitution you don't have to be right it talks about how the constitution had some rules abou there were in rules in the constitution about slavery that weren't right. if you want to study the constitutional convention, you get that right, i support his right to have a constitutional convention i just don't know how many will go, and i'm -- i'm not being funny about this i listen to do that gentleman. andrew, he's a big trump supporter, and that's terrific, but he keeping talking about a constitutional right he do
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he does not know how to read the constitution his constitutional view is ill-advised. >> always, thank you, jim. >> president eisenhower not a hack, not a fool, a great general, head of columbia, this guy says he's a joker. i'm knoll buying that. >> we will see you in just a couple minutes we will hear from the ceo of exxon in just a bit. of course, you can join cnbc's investing clubs world trade center jim cramer. just point your phone at the screen we'll be right back ghafr th isrit♪♪e care. it has the power to change the way we see things. ♪♪ it inspires us to go further. ♪♪ it has our back. and goes out of its way to help. ♪♪ when you start with care,
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president biden is expected to deliver remarks today on the supply chain challenges and an effort to make sure store shelves are stocked for the holiday season to reach that goal, he's going to need all logistics help he can get. the railroads have been key in getting the supply chain back to normal joining us is lance fritz. thank you for being here. >> thank you for hosting me today. i know last month you lowered your volume growth guidance for the full year, not based on just a lack of demand, but all of these issues. where are the biggest issues we
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face. >> for our business we still face a coupling -- there are chip shortages, predominantly shown to us in the automobile market, both inbound auto parts and outbound finished vehicles in the international intermodal arena there's been a fundamental changes by the ocean carriers to make their container empty in the l.a. basin usually they would go on the railroad and go inland, but they're becoming empty at the mainland. >> when do you think those were normalize a bit? >> on the container side, we are in constant dialogue with our ocean carrier skus, helping them to understand we're wide open right now. the union pacific railroad is fluid, our dwell on the ports is
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absolutely normal, and dwell inland on it is intermodal ramps, like in chicago are pretty normal. we're encouraging then if you bring the box to us, we'll make it empty faster than they do in l.a. >> i don't understand the logistics of where the problem is and why it's not getting turned faster. >> the problem is there's not enough trucking capacity to take it offdock to a trans-load facility there's not enough labor in transload capacity to take an international box, empty it out, and put it into a truck or domestic container all of those shortages are making international containers dwell on the port, and then again when they're trying to get processed through transload or warehouse services. >> lance, we had a congressman
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from florida on earlier today. he introduced a bill in congress where he'd like to use some of the leftover covid money to pay shippers basically to go through the panama canal, instead of waiting in line to get into some of these west coast ports, move them away to the eastern coast where they have plenty of space, plenty of truckers i can't imagine that's something you would love, because you don't have rail lines that run all the way to florida. >> it's not in our self-interest, of course, but also not advised for the homtr health of the country. those containers tend to go where they want to go. that is, there is a lot of demand on the west coast, and the l.a. basin specifically, so there's a big reason for a lot of that ship capacity to hit l.a., and part of the ships are lot or near local, and part of the ships will come inland in partnerships with railroad
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like union pa sink, we have an excellent supply chain in normal times to get product inland. what's happened in these abnormal times is we're having an impact on our work forces through covid and other reasons. and then a number of other impacts like a 30% uptick in the demand through e-commerce on imports trying into the into the l.a. ports it will get figured out. i've shared this morning the middle mile is ready to go i think other pieces will be figured out as well. we just need more labor to get into the jobs in truck driver seats and in warehouses. >> lance, your earnings were better than expected, so was revenue. that's because despite the inflation you have higher shipping prices and fuel surcharges do you anticipate that will continue >> what creates a good pricing
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environment for us is capacity constraints in the trucking industry that continues to exist. they're a primary competitor, and to a great degree they are the option that we compete against. so as long as trucking capacity is tight, it's going to be typically a pretty good pricing environment for us, and then you put on top of that the consumer's in pretty good shape right now, sitting on a fair amount of cash, they're financially in better condition than when they entered the covid period in early 2020 the industrial economy is feeling pretty good as well. so you have a combination of tight alternative capacity to railroad, and a really pretty strong economy when is it comes to consumption lance fritz, the chairman and ceo of union pacific, sir, we hope to have you back again soon, because it does help to understand the issues that are front and center thank you for your time. >> thank you, becky.
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>> tang -- take care the nasdaq up by 212, and gentlemen, that was quite a show we're going to do this against tomorrow right now, though, it's time for "squawk on the street." good wednesday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer david faber is in houston with exxon ceo darren woods exclusive. we'll hear from hi in a few minutes. futures are group. oil is back to 6

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