tv Fast Money CNBC December 2, 2021 5:00pm-6:00pm EST
i think it still looks like an expectations reset, a cleansing of a lot of crowded and wounded positions. we'll see if that creates some real buying. the real strong part of december, you know, seasonal pattern is the second half of the months. >> led by the cyclical sectors, four of which were up more than 2% we're out of time for "closing bell." thanks for watching. "fast money" starts right now. yes, it does live from the market site right here in new york times square. i'm in for melissa tonight. >> guy adami, tim seemo, karen finerman, and donovan. so is it all clear, or simply too soon to break any kind of rally cap? >> plus. the chart masters drilling down on today's crude comeback,
carter seeing big opportunity in big oil. he's going to read the texas tea leaves ahead we are all over the after-hours disaster from docusign, the shares down 25% right now. the guidance, needless to say not what wall street wanted to here the conference call is underway. d-moss is diedaled in, but she' dip if with any news lots of buyer moving in, buying all kinds of stocks, the dow rallies nearly 620 points, almost 2% for its best day since march. almost all dow stock exchange were higher, except for the six you see on the screen. nasdaq rising nearly a percent but amazon, microsoft, meta, aka facebook, tesla had the gall to fall guy adami, how do you make sense
of today's moves >> first of all, hello, brian, good to see you. >> how are you >> are you there we always try to explain things. certainly things are unexplainable, the lock necessary monster, why the dro detroit lions are still in the nfl. i have no idea why today is happening. i'll say this. i'm sure bonaman has -- there's something we call negative gamma in the business. and we saw that in a really in a great light yesterday. to a certain extent i think we saw it today i'm fascinated to see what happens tomorrow on the jobs number and what the wage number is without question, that's a high
probability. >> yeah, tim, listen, negative gamma. i mean, because of the volume of options trading has exploded so much, these once type of setups that we never talked about have being material to the markets. do you think that was at play here >> let's get away from negative gamma. bonawyn does, guy kind of does, let's talk about growth. the market is a lot less concerned about inflation or what the fed has been talking about the market is less concerned about inflation than growth we talked about this last night, karen brought this up, the omicron dynamic has been the headline knocking the market down you have pfizer out there today, more constructive in their comments i think right now the market
wants to continue growth and reopening, and is less concerned about what the fed is doing. scott will come on in a second and enlighten us i know the fed is always out there. i say, more than anybody, i think, more fed equals more volatility, but right now the market is playing on growth. we have seen that the last couple days. >> fair enough, there's bc and ac when it comes to the fed. before confirmation and after the confirmation quite the switch for the fed head i think what guy is trying to say -- and i certainly don't want to put words in his mouth -- we're all about the greek letters, omicron, delta and gamma at this point. omicron getting the headlines, but underneath that market, underneath the hood bonawyn there's other dynamics at play
>> certainly i think guy brings up a good appointed. when you see the latter final innings of the year, ultimately what it does, without getting too far in the weeds, you're short convexity. the higher things go, you're forced to buy them higher. and the lower things go the more you're forced to change them lower. i think we got drunk on that sub-16 vix i think quite a few of us have been saying it's good time to pick up cheap protection, but there was a bit of a lull there. now, not only are you forced to buy protection to flatten out your situation, you're having to
play catch-up as well. it's that additional volatility we're seeing play through with some of the swings we're all talking about. >> karen, i do feel like -- and it's my fault. we're in the weeds, i did it i take full blame for ruining the show tonight, but again, take us out of the weeds get us to what we need to know what do you do, right, as somebody who buys for the long haul with this kind of market when you just don't know what tomorrow is going to bring >> yeah, i've never thought of myself as a weed whacker, but i guess this is my job here. right, there was a giant rotation as well as the overall market being up. we saw faang really, really underperform, but the cheaper things really started to do well we talked -- even though the 2s, 10s were weaker, we saw banks
get a big win. that to me says people are looking to buy cheaper valuation stocks, because the fed is telling us, you know, we had powell twice, bemester, bosstic today. they're tapering faster. i think if we can have the fed tighten, but also have growth that the market can do fine. to morgan stanley, a bit of facebook, um, and sold a bit of matterport a high flyer. >> adami, going into that point, there's tapering, and then there's tightening, to karen
"weed whacker rwhacker" finerma raced 2.5%, and the dow rode 33% in 1995. it's possible no question it's possible they have done a masterful job speaking to the market take october 2018 out of mix they've been spot on in terms of saying what the market wants to hear the question is, can this 345rk9 withstand it i would submit, correctly or incor incorrectly, i mean, it might make sense in one environment, if rates start going immediately higher, it's not going to makes sense and we're going to mean revert i think they have done a great job. you also made a great point, ac,
bc, and karen talked about this on tuesday night this is a fed that never, ever would talk about inflation the way they did, and jerome powell opens hi mouth and is talking about fighting inflation i think there will be a concerted effort to do exactly that, which is great, by the way. they should have done it a long time ago i just don't thinki constructively good for the market one thing questionly i showed this on worldwide exchange, on at 5:00 a.m. for some reason, back in may, the s&p phet 4.8% when the delta variant came in. coming in this morning the s&p 500 was down, what, 4.8% system
the omicron news came. random maybe interesting? who knows, but i made the graphic myself, and way proud of it scott miner is the global and recently tweeted -- scott joins us now by phone. scott welcome. you could say what could happen. do you think it will happen? >> well, brian, yes, i do. let me be direct i think that, you know, what we're seeing right now is all the talk of tapering and accelerating taper, it's sending
a message that the federal reserve is extremely serious about inflation and the market, the long end of the yield curve, 10 years, 30 years are starting to adjust that i expectation on rates based on the fact that the fed will eventually act in a way that may be actually too aggressive, that actually might induce a recession >> do you think a recession -- look at the bond market, real yields, to your point, if the bond market is saying we could go into recession, do you think there is a chance of an economic recession in america in the next, i don't know, two to four years? >> yes, i do i think the bond market, based on how it's pricing, you know, how forward rates are lining up, is telling us that the terminal rate, when the federal reserve
raises rates, that's how high short-term rates will get, will be somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.75% if we get to that level, that would be a level that would induce a recession we're not talking about rates even as high as they were the last time the fed started to tighten, and, you know, if you look at this, brian, it's really inter interesting. everybody is so focused on negative real rates. pick a number, 6%, for inflation, somewhere in that area we have rates that are, you know, for ten years around, you know, 1.40, so the real return on bonds, you know, is, you know, minus 4% or more.
>> it's garbage, terrible. >> right yet if we raise foror the fed raised rates to be equal to the rate of inflation and we had zero real rates. you know, how would the markets react to a 6% overnight rate obviously sale price was crumble, economic growth would go into a tailspin, so there's something going on here, something i have never seen in my career, even in history i can't find, about the fact that that the real rates of interest are so low to maintain economic growth thatless something structurally different about this expansion, an the truth of the matter is that the market is telling us -- sending us a
message of, hey, fed, if you want to get aggressive, you know, then start realizing what's going to happen to the economy in the next couple years and start pricing for that. >> ma i it's unprecedented growth, unprecedented accommodation, unprecedented pandemics, unprecedented government spending. it is truly an unprecedented time i know karen wants to get in here, if you this i it's possibly going to recession in the next couple years, does that mean we start to sell stocks now for then >> no. >> or can stocks really into a recession? >> look, history shows us the stock market will continue to rally until we get a few months away from a recession. i was listening to the show prior to coming on, and, look, interest rates going up is a
signal of confidence in economic growth rising interest rates are probably going to -- i don't want to say enable the market to rally, but a signal, if the economy continue to say expand in the short run, that symptom prices should go higher because, you know, we're not going to have a recession for the next couple years. >> where do you think inflation, i don't know, evens out after the supply chain issues get resolved obviously the 6% number is somewhat transitory. where do you think it will level out? >> as i commented, life is transitory i think we'll be surprised in
the next year or two, if energy prices reverse, as supply chains start to reopen, as demand -- secretary yellen spent time yesterday talking about this the surge in demand we've gotten from all this stimulus has been in goods there's been, you know, various services have been slow and sluggish to come back. at that demand shifts away from goods or services, which i think it will and will normalize, i think we are going to discover that the inflation rate could actually be, you know, a chance it could even become negative, you know, if a year or two from now, if everything reverses. look at it, autos, airfares,
oil, metals, commodity prices, all of these things are something that, in the long run, have a lasting supply curse, but in the short run, the supply curves are inelastic eventually the invisible hand will appear, will increase supply once we get the increase in supplies, i think we'll find a reversion in inflation >> scott minerd, we're going to leave it there some big calls, but right on about real rates scott, we appreciate you phoning in today have a great day and a good night. >> thank you bonawyn, where would you begin? >> i think there's something to be said about peak inflation it wasn't said exclusively, but i felt like it was alluded to,
especially the things starting to mean revert over a more intermediate or long term, having supply loosened the one thing that hasn't been discusses, this 2s/10s, that chart has continued to be in a downward curve i mean, clearly we have spoke about it ad nauseam, but, you know, when you talked about particularly some of the companies like a docusign on some of these large valuation companies, at some point why do i continue to invest the discussion around this has been around ten-year discount rates. let's talk about short temple. why would i invest companies that he will make money 10, 20, 30 years from now if i can get some yield in the short term
i can get this back much faster, that is something that i personally am keeping an eye on. >> yeah, calling for maybe recession in the next couple years? we'll probably get back to it later in the show. do we call this next story a d docu-sign of the times that's not a misprint. their shares are down 29%, wiping out nearly a third of shareholders valuable. deirdre bossa, what is happening? >> it's the fourth quarter revenue guidance this is a stock that had run up huge last year, but today's after-hours dive takes it into negative territory o2021, and also follows salesforce's
disappointing performance earlier this week. what the ceo just said on the earnings call is likely not encouraging for investors. that's why you saw the stock fall further he said that they expected an eventual step-down from the peak growth levels, but he said the environment has shifted more quickly than they anticipated. brian, he was fielding lots of questions on why this was so unexpected, and as you can see, those shares are down, wow, nearly 30%. >> i think the keyword foismer is there guy, your take on the docu-disaster? >> it's not that long ago it was a darling. this is not a disasterous guide.
before you @me on twitter, when you're trading even at current levels, at 72 times next year's numbers, that's what's happening. people are shooting first, asking questions later i think the may low in the stock was about 180 or so. we're clearly through that right now. we'll see whether it shakes out tomorrow, but this is just showing you how precise and how well you have to do on earnings when you have valuations of this magnitude. >> i suspect there will be some bottom fishers coming in tomorrow, but i don't know, down 30%? my gosh. >> that's not what i do. i think there's a combination here of docusign it's not adobe, and i think a lot of people were painting it as it was.
so i think this is one where we know about the pull forward. look, they provide a service that, i don't care whether we are unleashed and there's never covid again or we get locked up again. it doesn't matter. it's a very valuable service, but it's not enough. it's not enough to at least putted valuation on the company it has again i'm not hearing about enterprise weakness from a lot of other people. so this is concerning. and concerning for a lot of investors. on deck, is the iphone boom finally slowing down reports that it might be, and it took apple stock with it a bit today. are we reading into it too much? some wide moves with energy. what is next for oil after the geect hu rendrop the chart master will hit that chart. stick around one day, you're gonna take a hit you didn't see coming.
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there are reports that apple has told suppliers that demand is weakening into the holiday was that it? let's trade this name here karen finerman, what do you make of the move? it popped on the downturn in the last few days. are we reading into this too much >> i think so. we hear this sort of every -- i don't know if it's every year or every big quarter -- sorry my voice is a little hoarse, but i'm standing long. if i tried to trade around every trader, i would have been in too high, sold it too long i'm a long-term holder here. the valuation is not cheap, for sure it's a premier company at 28 times, it reflects in hardway, gross margin, a lot more services gross margin i'm going to stay in it for the
long term. guy, it probably will get some apple fans in trouble, but it's not a dirty word is it kind of like a bond now? it seemed to act that way when the market was selling off if it means safe asset, yeah, i think that's exactly what happened as the broader market was getting whacked, apple traded well karen has been talking about this, when bonawyn is on, he talked about it as well. there have been peak-to-trough declines in the last three, four years. i don't think we're on the precipice of one now, but if you look at the price action, you would have thought some of these names would have gotten whacked. they all traded reasonably well. it doesn't seem like a lot of teeth to the story we'll find out when some semis
report if that was the case, but right now i'm not making much of it >> we'll so what the slowdown, if it happens may be we are just getting started. here's what's coming up next. >> announcer: wild energy. oil climbing higher. the chart maer says the move is just beginning he's turning it out, next. a retail rebound big names reversing course, as we close in on christmas is a retail rayly still in play? you're watching facebook live from the nasdaq marketsite in times square. we're back right after this. love you, sweetheart they guide me with achievable steps that give me confidence. this is my granddaughter... she's cute like her grandpa. voya doesn't just help me get to retirement they're with me all the way through it. come on, grandpa! later. got grandpa things to do. aw, grandpas are the best!
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vote so far has been long party lines. only one republican voting in favor. it will head to the senate once this clears, where the timing of the final vote is uncertain. lawmakers have until midnight tomorrow to avoid a government shutdown, but a handful of conservative republicans are threatening to draw this process out into the weekend as a way of protesting the president's vaccine mandates leaders from both parties say they do not want this to happen. they're just not sure exactly when it will pass, but brian, the first step is for the house to pass the bill back over to you. >> funding a government for another, what, 2 3/4 months? that's the way we live now
ylan, thank you very much. tim, is this material to the equity market at all >> it hasn't been. i will say if you look at money markets and some commercial paper, there was some, you know stress scott minerd talked about it in some of his notes, but this was good news. let's get on with it. thank you. so buckle up keep your hands and feet inside the right at this time that ride is the oil market used moving higher, as opock and the oil-producing allies agreed to increase output. despite more supply, the chart master sees prices bounding from here carter wirth is here to break it down. >> yes, quitea right a five-week setoff from 85.50,
down some 27%. do you play for a bounce i think you do first chart, you know you have a well-defined ear joyce of higher highs, each of which has failed. so we drop 16% in march we drop 20% in july, and then 27% look at the next chart look where these selloffs stopped. right at the lower band of this megaphone, if you like to call it that. we touched the line, bounced beautifully today, a big reversal day where might we be headed i think you get back to the middle of the range. in the next one there's a line drawn, that sort of projects to 75 the final chart, i simply circled that level, which is to say a reversal after 27%
sell-off after five weeks down you get more than just a barrel or two so play for the bounce tim, if the chart master is correct, you have a few ways you may want to play the bounce in oil, there we say the trade cool is in session with tim take it away. >> i like the trade school i like carter's call and what i hear him saying is, in an environment where demand is a bit choppy but going higher, this is a great place to be buying oil. it's a great place to be an investor, not a trader, the professor says the first is exxon is exxon sexy again? no, because being sexy is not sexy in the oil space. it's about higher free cash flow, more downtreatment and chemicals, and a dividend
break-even of 35 $, so i think that's where exxon is. i think it's a perfect stock to own in this oil environment, where i think oil will go higher, but i don't think it will soar. then we have chevron chevron is so far heads of the integrated peers, cutting cap ex. it's the bottom end of the range, a smalling in, but they're still going to crank out $3 billion or so in the permian. they'll still be raising the different north of $65 a barrel. i think they can do that finally schlumberger well service stocks are not what they used to be, and shall limber jay i don't think wants to be what they used to be, either if you look at their last couple quarters of numbers, first of ought enormous free cash flow.
you don't necessarily need to see drilling go berserk. these guys are at the front of the list, best the breed, and you can be an investor in oil companies. they're run differently, and we talked about that. >> thank you very much for the trade school, tim. bon awyn, i think tim makes a lot of great points. i'm not going to call it a disclaimer, but he's playing it as an investor i think a lot of times we've caught up in the hype, seeing they massive moves and crazy fomo this seems like a good point to kind of like put on some of those names. i am a proponent of clean energy, but i think there's enough room for both i think you
kind of want a well-shaped, rounded portfolio here i certainly like playing it through the integrated services much more than the etf i think the last bust cycle we had, where that uso etf was reshaped with the holdings, swaps, things of that nature, it does not track the commodity i second his call. the best way to get exposure is through the integrated service so i love to argue and wish there was more debate, but i really think he hit the nail on the head guy adami, in the past, i do remember you have liked the slb, do you still >> i do, but i'll seer your slumslum
-- slumber-jay, and raise you a -- and you probably have about close to 35%, 40% eps growth not that that's necessarily the reason to buy it, but the stock is just too cheap here, so i'm with tim and bonawyn i see your schlumberger and raise you an h.a.l we have a special programming note next week we'll be at the world petroleum conference, the biggest in the world first time in america in decades. we have a great lineup this is an important time for the energy we have the ceos of several companies. not to leave out the european majors as well that's all day, month and tuesday. coming up, are investors
falling back in love with retail some stocks of stores that sell stuff, they rose day how should you play these names? we'll tackle that trade. plus, this stock trading near a 52-week low that's an ugly chart one of our traders say it's so bad and it may be good, and eyth hi hit the "buy" button today. coming up, we'll tell you why. if you wake up thinking about the market and want to make the right moves fast... get decision tech from fidelity. [ cellphone vibrates ] you'll get proactive alerts for market events before they happen... and insights on every buy and sell decision. with zero-commission online u.s. stock and etf trades. for smarter trading decisions,
welcome back to "fast money. take a look at the retail stocks shares of bed bath & beyond up nordstrom up 2.5%. courtney reagan has more on the bounce, and whether it's a trading thing or more fundamental. you're doing channel checks every day, courtney, i'm sure. what are we seeing around they retailers? >> this one is harder to figure out, brian it's been choppy i think it's too early to call
it a santa claus rally, but many names have held their ground today. it finished up the day 2%, staying in line with the broader market retailer that sell higher-end goods globally have been among the hardest hit really, but tapestry up, though, still down, though, 7% for the week so it's got in ground to go. nordstrom timely gaining today, but down 9% for the week, 33% in a month. denim players, kontour, and levi, down, but gap still off 9% for the week something nor joyful for the online players the real real, didn't really
juice up its own shar, but secondhand competitors gained 5% now there's some strength in some special names, bed bath & b yond, still down 19% 2309 week, though designers brands, that's the parent of 2k6789 sw,-- dsw down this week. jll, tanker outlets up 5%. so we'll have to watch this trade closely, brian, and see if today was an anomalio beginning of a trend i don't know >> courtney, thanks very much. tapestry, at leasttoday it was the carole king of retail, but long term it's not done very much you like that's correct guys karen? my biggest retail position is
target, i do own capri, i do own some footlocker. i think it's a rotation into cheaper stocks some are mid single digits, so we are going to see higher rates, coming back again to that pullet pal, just the pressure of gravity of the higher rates, to me, makes these more attractive, and they have sold off on the thought that black friday wasn't quite as good. cybermonday wasn't quite as good, but i think we'll see sales with high-growth margins i think there's more to go in the retail trade. >> thank you very much, darren i want to do a bit of breaking news not a huge story, but it is interesting. a lot of people are waiting to return to the office this story is up on cnbc.com right now, google workers in the u.s. will now not return to their office on january 10th that was the previouslily
announced date, which of course had been pushed back from the previously, previously announced date this was a memo reviewed by cnbc.com you can see the full reporting, but google workers will not return to the office as planned, as of january 10th anybody? bonawyn, you have a take on this the omicron, winter seasonality, cases may pop, any market impact on this kind of story? >> no, i think it's more of a workforce type of flow through clearly there's an overhang, but when we juxtapose the culture that is around these tech companies, and big tech, it's an innovative, accommodating type of consult tirr. essentially what they're saying
is what's most important is the health of our workers. i think this is a way to attract talent i won't cast aspersions, but there's old-cool companies that insisted people come back and we saw outbreaks, and some of the bankses are paying people for additional workload and stress it's causing it's more of a strategic wake of attracting talent and separating one from their peers. >> once again, google, according to an e-mail reviewed by cnbc.com's jen elias, workers not returning as of january 10th. coming up, this stock has seen some better days, now trading near its 52-week lows. were our traders is buying on those new louse. later on, make sure your seat back is up, and seat in locked position. there's a forecast of a bumpy
karen finer man was not deterred today. >> i am wrong, though, but i just think this is ridiculously cheap. i liked it much higher than here they came out with good earnings they have a lot of momentum with paramount plus they have opportunity to -- the cost of developing the content is much higher, but the valuation is getting ridiculous. they had a very good net note out after their earnings, now it's 25% lower, 28% lower? at this price, i feel like the risk/reward is compelling. they still do make a lot of money, a lot of cash flow.
i held my nose and just went for it. >> tim, it kind of feels like a fast pitch, but it feels like that if it was a fast pitch, where would you come in. >> it's karen's viacom why not follow karen, who's as smart as they come but also are her points are this she mentioned disney they had a lot of content, and they're very cheap on a content play, i love the distribution deal they have with t-mobile which gets them in places they might not. i think it got caught up in the a it became a stock that the retail folks said i'm going to stick it to the hedge fund folks. don't be confused by that.
this is a real company this is not a company that's just a meme stock. yes, i think it's an interesting play at this point. >> you wonder if it could have turned off a lot of people maybe at their own cost? >> listen, just on "yellowstone" alone it should be a $40 stock. >> love it. >> it's the best in the history of cable television. throw kevin costner it, it should be a $50 stock. it's too cheap i don't know what is pushing it lower. i think if the wsb or reddit crowd gets their arms around it, it could easily go up. >> you're going to go up against "the wire," even "bloodline" >> all night long. >> we have a dinner on the line. we'll have a post on this. we have an after-hours alert
on zillow. you flagged the move for us, karen. what are you looking at? >> i flagged it, because i'm long the kist sink. they set us up for giant write-downs. they're going to be cash flow neutral getting out of it. the balance sheet is in excellent shape. they're taking $750 million doing a stock buyback, which seems ovbvious they are doing it. i really like it i hated the home-buying business, i love the rest of the business that's what we're left with the i think we'll get more positive quicker than they want now exit from the home-buying business. i really like it maybe the lesson here is don't
let a computer do a human being's job. the airline stocks took off today. the big move higher as president biden says he's not planning any national travel lock joined. japan just reversed its recent travel ban traders are betting that these stocks may hit an air pocket mike khouw from options action >> we saw it trade about 2.3 times the average daily put. that is largely the result of the purchase of the december 17 put spread the buyer of those bought over 4,000, spending about 75 cents contract to put it on, obviously betting they could fall below that higher strike that would put it between $19.75 that would represent a decline over there's 50 constituent stocks in there, excluding currencies, the top four
collectively represent over 40% of it. >> mike khouw, thank you very much bonawyn, what say you? are you a buyer? >> no. i like the trade i like it better on a spread basis, particularly given the term of the trade. i think with the overhang, i can point to some of the balance sheets southwest, for example, in terms of names where i like to pick and choose, but generally speaking, you have these headwinds. we had this situation earlier when we had some of the workforce that weren't on strike i just think there's a lot of unknowns, particularly this time of year, and i would be staying away. all right. 230 more options action, don't stay away for that, tune into the full show tomorrow, every friday, 5:30 eastern te.im up next, your final trades it's a thirteen-hour flight, that's not a weekend trip.
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>> bonawyn >> selling puts on apple. >> karen >> thanks, brian zillow, i like the news. >> guy >> you're so far away, brian, but best buy is so close. >> i love it carole king, you're the best thank you. thanks for watching tonight. "mad money" with jim begins now. my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now >> hey, i'm cramer welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you some money my job is not to just entertain you but to train you and teach you so call me or tweet me @jimcramer. sentiment will be hard to fathom but it's essential if you want to predicthe
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