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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  December 3, 2021 5:00pm-5:31pm EST

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it was considered, but it happens. you saw software itself has softened a little bit. it would hurt the index a lot but on the other hand, maybe that's the final throw-in of the towel. >> also value picked up on the other side >> have a good weekend "fast money" begins now. >> thank you very much live from the nasdaq market overlooking the glorious "new york times" square, this is "fast money. tonight's trader lineup, you're seeing it there. for the big show tonight on "fast," a sea of red on wall street in a very volatile week but they will help you seek shelter from the storm plus, a bitcoin breakdown.
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is the coin losing its appeal as a store of value our bitcoin baller breaks down that trade and later, slamming on the brakes the stock that could see 10% immediate, immediate down side we'll tell you what it is, that mystery chart there and how you should play it we start with the other monstrous, you can see the nasdaq down nearly 2%. it is now 7% below its record high the biggest companies in the world as we shift around to that monitor, what'sing a combined $185 billion in market value alone today. so where are the markets going today? companies like alphabet and apple and amazon, losing $12 to $32 billion. tesla has lost $70 billion let's get some answers from the chart masters.
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carter worth, carter braxton worth, take it away. cbw, take it away. >> it is one of many ways to figure out the answer. i think it is the best way rather than the fundamentals two for the s&p 500. the first chart is simply the chart. no one could characterize it any other way. up to the right, north by northeast. and there is the trend line. and we are flirting with the prospects of predicting that 5.7% of the peak, that's nothing. where might we be headed it is he is today, in the world of technical analysis. not all gaps are filled when you have that.
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we filmed one this week. there are three below. the lowest a a gp of 72. let's look at the qqq. next chart so this is quite fascinating we know, look, it's a well defined series each high stopped right on that internal trend line. you can see where the arrows are drawing. if you look at the second qqq chart and put in a parallel line, where mate this be headed? we go back to the lower end. and so from here, that's down 7, 8% look at the russell. this is the one clearly not the uptrend. it is ascending. we know the nasdaq 100 the russell basically after its very dynamic beginning of the year was dead flat and then particularly insidious, it broke out. it was a failed breakout
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you can see that there so the money that went into it becomes an accelerant. that money is reversing and other money. so the final chart, the real risk for the russell 2000 was that we were to break on the well defined channel and failed to break out at the end of the day, is there anything wrong a sell-off? no it is a normal thing is it likely finished? i would say no >> so it's a little sobering to think about some of those charts at the same time, if you're an accentuate the positive person, i guess could you say it's a big a opportunity. if not, you could say it's a down side ahead. let's go ahead and trade it because that's what we do hear let's say, all right, tim, we'll start with you if you look at those charts, another 7 to 8% down side to
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that last game carter talked about in the nasdaq. maybe there are lower praise ahead. for some of them like the russell, are there people willing to go up there and start legging into these positions knowing this has been a buy the dip market for as long as any of us can remember? >> great question and more importantly, great to have you here on a 48 and carter, it very stoic, an almost clint eastwood like, speak softly and carry a big -- you can't argue with it. even banks are either at the precipice for the first time since march 2005 to the down side in other words, when was the last time that you saw jpmorgan pass through the 200 day to the down side and it was in fact march 4, 2020, as we went into cove the technology sector on a week when the ten-area went from 155 to 134
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in the seven sessions, it ended today, it has gone from 169, almost 20%, it should tell you there is concern about growth, possibly about the feds stepping in too heavily in the market typically, this might be good for mega cap tech. if you think about what it has done going into this period of volatility, and again, stream volatility, we're up roughly trough to peek today, almost 80%. mega cap tech in the qqqs have underperformed in the s&p in the last three sessions. that's the point everybody is focused on the market leadership, which we have all said on this show has been so narrow, today and even the last couple days, is starting to show some weakness so the aggregate pullback, not a big deal especially when you consider that we have had a couple others we did about 8.5% september, october. i think people are concerned
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that this is a different environment. and the curve, we talked about it all week. i think you have to focus on that >> so what is interesting. we talk about the leadership this notion now that there has been that mega cap technology communications services trade that has been outperforming the broader market, and the small caps for months now. is there anything that scares but today? i thought it was interesting the nasdaq 100 and the qqqs never really broke below their 50-day until today whereas all the other indexes had. is this the catch up trade for the down side? or is this something more rotational do you think >> so i think it is a little rotational in nature if you look back to where we thought would happen in october, everyone thought, or the seasonality, i should say, was that the markets should sell off. and then the market didn't
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it rallied aggressively. and growth really took the bull by the horns, if you will. we've been waiting for the small cap, or the cyclicals to really outperform here. some of the chemical names, the packaging names, this is the best shot of a higher rate environment that we'll have. although the ten-year isn't telling that story just yet. so i'm nervous going into year end for the entire market. because i think if you turn october on its head. we all thought it would sell off at rally what do you think would happen or thought would happen, was the santa claus rally. now if we see the market sell off into year end or thereabouts, we could set up for real january rally with that january rally, i think what you're going to see are the cyclicals really run, but if i told you, dom, that the xlf or
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the financial etf was outperforming the xlk, the technology etf, you would scratch your head a little bit there. but that is the case or their flat on their relative performance. one is up 28%. one is up 27%. i think you will see the cyclicals really try to run here in the next month or so and that is the way i'm staggered, or on position >> so bk if that is the case. if we are talking about a notion where the market is maybe searching for some kind of a narrative, some kind of a story, because it hasn't been this notion that higher yields are crushing the tech or growth trade. it has been the opposite is there more down side to come? do you worry that the interest rate picture is telling us something that maybe isn't being factored into the equity picture rate now >> i may not, the yield curve has been flat for a while. maybe it is just the equity
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market catching up when you look at carter braxton worth, known as cardi b, you're talking about support levels at some point you praised in a fair amount of bad news out there. so let's just take omicron variant there. i think it is good news if you get a less severe disease and herd immunity that is transmitting faster. the market will look through that and say let's get the reopening trades again that will then maybe get the yield curve to be steeper. and you have to remember, it's a really good point that steve grasso brought up. everybody thought there would be this santa claus rally and the yield curve was steepening and everybody was positioned that way. once you get a little scare in the market, it is the end of the area from my position, i think i would much rather be looking for a bottom here than panicking and getting out of my positions.
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>> so the interesting part about this right now, and we want to bring this up. scott minor at guggenheim, we remember he was just phoning in the other night to tell us what he thought here. he did tweet out, all right, that with the 30-area treasury bond, the long one, at 1.75, expected to return to 1.4% as for the 10-year note, if it goes below 1.4, it is likely to head to 1.2. he made that call just yesterday on the show. nadine, i turn to you, is this a scenario, maybe could you see a hare rate regime but it has been playing out. is this very much just about positioning and people maybe unwinding certain things or do you feel as though there is a down draft for rates that will last maybe just a day or two? >> well, i think that they're
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right in that goldman came out with the data saying they had the lowest level of leverage of all year this past week. they took down their leverage. that will put pressure on the markets in addition to the positions being down people are shorting individual positions. that just puts a lot of pressure so i'm on board with what steve and bk are saying. we like to be a little contrarian a weak ago it was getting tanked that's when we bought back in. today it has hit a rally so you trim midday, tech is down it seems like good time reenter positions that maybe aren't the household names. we tried to play a little contrarian spoiler alert for our safety trade for later, what we're really seeing here, you had weak job growth this morning and people think, okay, that's the
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fixing of the supply chain there will be stickiness there so separate from beating up the wind down is that bond purchases which takes that liquidity out of the system, hedge funds tend on get under pressure when they're off guard. they have to sell off their positions. and i think that's what we saw today in the crowded positions if you're going to be thinking about intermediate turn trades, you want to fade that if you think you're going to make some money on those >> so nadine opened the door and i'm going to step through it because i want to get through safety trades. it is one of the questions i have is it time to run for cover? let's grab a pencil andpaper you'll want to write these down. let's kick this off hear with the safety trade is it wartd and what are you doing? >> walmart walmart is definitely warranted. i think it is warranted even in
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an aggressive environment. i think the trends are very good for walmart. i think the investments are under recognized relative to amazon look, this is a company that has underperformed the targets world, the costcos of the world by a lot i think with whatever we're seeing with slowness in the economy, it is always defensive stock. we saw it in the early stages of covid that walmart actually outperformed the most important thing, it knew trades less than 20 times we can even argue that they have big multiples. with inflation and food inflation, the largest grocer should do very well in this environment. i think people are underappreciating the comps. >> you can see multimonth lows for walmart shares steve, what about you?
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>> so this one was definitely a contrarian apple came out and talked about it the stock down to the 130s in october to about 170 and then backed off a bit on recent headlines. the stock is up though year to date and it is up more than a lot of its peers it is definitely a catch-up trade. when people think about what they want to buy, they want to buy what they know, what they understand, what they feel safe with and apple checks all those boxes and it checks that box for me >> and it was a safety trade-up until reports about the slowing growth for iphone demand >> that spoiler alert. so today bonds are overbought. don't do this trade today. the idea is be patient and go
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the long, long one you can look at the 30ier. that's when you can get back into long bonds. >> and b.k., you don't like the play by the rules. i know this from experience. what exactly is your play this time around? >> well, yes, as you mentioned, i identify as a contrarian dominator. so to me it doesn't make a lot of sense looking for safety trades after you've had this sell-off i want to look, where is the carnage? let's look at xlk. the best thing for me, monday morning, gap lower, reverse around 10:30 or 11:00. i would be buying xlk all the way. >> the contraryian play. by the way, jim cramer has some strategies for the kinds of stocks you should look at in volatile markets like these.
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read about it in his news letter you can sign up on cnbc. after days of holding steady amid the market volatility, we will break down the full bitcoin trade coming up next and later, china stocks crumble as dd plans to relist. all that and more when "fast money" returns we're back in a couple minutes s of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq
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$1 billion so millions more students, past... and present, can continue to get the tools they need to build a future of unlimited possibilities. all right of the welcome back to "fast money. the cryptocurrency, you can see a very wild time on wall street. it is sinking overall today. how exactly do you trade the space with all of those smaller type coins moving to the down side, much even more than bitcoin has? who better to kick it off than b.k. what do you make of the action is this an environment where you would be stepping many to buy the dip on some of these bitcoin related time trades?
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>> yeah, i think it is you have to separate bitcoin from the rest of the market. it is an interesting time. bitcoin is trading as a macro asset. funds are using it as an inflation hedge. when omicron came along, and oil fell off, people said i don't need that inflation hedge anymore. that is very separate. when you look at the rest of the market, we're seeing dispersion. we see cosmos ad oms up almost 20%. things like mattock up so they are trading on their own merits and on their own project valuations or project view so there is a big dispersion here then going back to bitcoin, sure, we had a 7% sell-off or so which is not that much for bitcoin. think about the environment. if we get a kind of a reopening trade and everything is fine on monday morning over the next week, people will put those inflation hedge trades back.
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on let's say the growth gets weaker what is the federal reserve going to do? they'll turn on their money. bitcoin will go up to me i think the sell-off is a buying opportunity >> so tim seymour, i wonder whether bitcoin just at the price action, or the asset itself, provides any kind of a tea leaf or any kind of a signal with regard to what will happen in the market or cryptocurrency itself was there a signal to be had from what's happening? >> it has. and b.k. referred to the flows i think it is amazing how it has been relative to its own history over the last couple pullbacks if you look at the pullback september to october and this one, you can see that bitcoin started selling off a couple days before. not signaling that bitcoin is the dog in the market, and the market is the tail but yes, if you think about the faster flows, they clearly are in the crypto market the charts tell that you bitcoin
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started selling before the market in both these more recent drawdowns. >> all right so possibly a leading indicator for what else to come. thank you very much. coming up next, the final esad check out what happens here. we've got some interesting ones coming up.
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will be one of partnership and trust. i am a fiduciary, not just some of the time, but all of the time. charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals. visit welcome back didi is planning to list in hong kong what is your take here >> so you know what i do think is ironic, you thought this would come from the s.e.c.
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not from china themselves to pull these companies to delist so you'll catch it from both ends you'll have a lot of congressmen on the hill demanding accountability standards and holding foreign companies accountable. so you'll get negative head winds from every which way on chinese related stocks >> some of those attract them at multi, multimonth if not year and multiyear. so let's go to the final trades. we'll go around the horn let's start with you, nadine what say you what is the most compelling thing for you right now? >> novo nordisk. n vmp o. it is a strong management team, a leading diabetes pharma. they also have a recently proved drug for weight loss with really extreme results. so we think that's a little hidden gem in there.
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>> all right what have you got? >> trinseo tse. >> all right, tim seymour? >> well, we talk defense how about offense on walmart i think there's a hybrid you don't have to go anywhere near amazon to take this from a 20 multiple, to a 23, 24 it gives you a lot more credit >> yeah, so for me, i'll put my money where my mouth is and say bitcoin. watch that trading if you get the head wind, that would be really positive >> lady and gentlemen, don't go anywhere we've got options action coming up next. have a great weekend
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greetings and salutations. i'm in for melissa lee tonight we're live right here in times square, new york city, with a very big show coming your way. here's what's on tap >> buckle up as another major sell-off slams wall street, he sees another rough time ahead why carter


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