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tv   Squawk on the Street  CNBC  December 10, 2021 9:00am-11:00am EST

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good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm here with jim cramer and dave faber an important day the november cpi really brings no surprises from a prior month. futures actually game steamed here, as the fed arguably has the go ahead for a faster taper next week. the highest read year on year, futures moving higher, but what does it mean for the economic recovery and fed policy? >> plus spac on the streets. s.e.c. gensler says new rules to
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protect investors will be coming soon. ford stopping reservation for the lightning due to high demand mary barra says, we are first, full stop. jim, internals, as liesman said, everything is up. >> you've been to listen to rich galanti, an amazing cfo at costco he just says basically everything is up one of the things he also says, by the way, is this shipping thing is a disaster. i mean, almost every -- the numbers he gave. >> 79 of containers are late by 51 days. he's got 4.5 to 5.5 up flation the best call about what i've heard was from doug yearly, ceo
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of toll brothers they have to go to home depot to buy the appliances to finish then about the embedded inflation. there's nothing transitory when you're one of the largest home builders and you go to home depot, you can't go to whirlpool because they don't havefully >> 1982, what were interest rates then >> reagan was president -- >> i wasn't that aware. >> reagan used to have beers with tip o'neil. thank you, chris matthews for a great book about that. what's amazing to me is i had hormel on the list -- i don't
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know if we have a clip, but search straight quarters of good gains, but he listed everything that's up. the fact is he's still doing that. >> meanwhile, you didn't answer the question rates were much higher >> i sold treasuries when i was at goldman sachs, they were 14%, u.s. treasuries 30-year, i used to -- you don't make money offer selling those. you can't charge more for treasury, but i ruined all my customer basis there's never anything better than a 14% treasury. the rates are so low, it's kind of crazy >> you're a gardener, and you love all thing landscaping do you give powell credit for aerating the law >> he totally gets it. i think you have to give him
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credit i think one of the reasons why he's so great is he really did wait to see how far -- remember he said i want the pandemic to play out we do have some spikes, but he's a man of his word. he basically said i have to rate, it looks like it's running its course and now it's time to act. did you see the unemployment data yesterday yeah, it's time to act can he start creating cars that have chip shortages, but he can cool down housing. those numbers are very notable. >> of the affordable luxury, they will not be deterred by higher rates, but there are people who very much wants to get out of an apartment. i mean, the country is operating at full tilt it's like a steel mill they can't operate more than 98%. we're done -- this economy can't
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be hotter. it is the hottest i have ever seen >> you made the roar roaring '2 call all week. >> did it? i love that. my daughter listened to my call yesterday, and she said that was big. she thought i was funny. there was a shoutout to someone from her town. the town did kind of burn down. >> there it is looking sharp. >> look at all those people. >> what were all those people doing? >> there were people from 50 states, david, listening to the investment club, which is a lot more than you did. >> okay, i was working, okay >> you were on air yesterday. >> we worked a lot, but so did you. >> you gave the club stuff they're not going to get on television, the disney call, for example. >> we bought some disney, and i
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think disney is right. we also had this interview. >> look at all those people wave s. >> he made major news. >> ceo farley. >> yeah, jim farley. >> we're going to give them one second there was this guy that came up when he wasn't ready, and he made a cameo out of one of our people >> on "closing bell" -- stephanie link went after your disney call. i just thought it was interesting. you know, we have the farley sound. >> we have jim farley. >> we're completely over-subscribed lightning especially everyone loves the electric version they haven't even driven
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it yesterday where they drive it 0 for 60 like in a 9 is 1 it's just an incredible product it can power your house for four days >> the one, when he talks about it -- >> the analyst at morgan stanley. some sort of report about a death -- we're concerned about it, but -- >> look, what's interesting is we've been compares the reservations -- well, reservations, now we know he stopped, oh, i guess that was kind of a blip i think he'll get permission to build all the plants he need mountain pass, np, materials they are building a giant fact
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tore with gm mary barra should not be discounted she's making it so she'll have the magnet capacity. so we i love talking about tesla and musk that's a good business. >> toyota which had hoped top normal production is having to push that back because the supply constraints we thought might be cleared up are sticky. >> that's what you have to do, contracts, long term, you have to do these long term contracts. just in time is not great for a company that's trying to decide to built a giant fab. >> even though you will not see on the horizon quite as many shift waiting to dock, they're fur out there or slowing their
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passage by double. >> so the whole idea that it's clearing up they could help the line outside the club door, right? >> we're in a broom of unpress dented proportions look, when you can't keep spam on the shelves, guys, that may be the definition of a boom. you can't keep spam. >> you can't keep spam on the shelves? >> it's selling too quickly? >> really? >> no, i made it up. pumpkin spice spam, that's a collector's item. >> we can stop worrying about that, at least. >> it's always something remember the actress, who said, it's always something. >> cream cheese issue, my friend
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said they'll have to make the bagel hole bigger. >> that's good glen tells a joke a day. he's hysterically funny. he always puts a joke in the call, and the analysts never again them s.e.c. chair gensler, take another look at the futures. vix now about 19 1/2 we're back in a me mont
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they gets to pocket 20% of your investment. that's essentially what a special purpose acquisition company, a spac does >> that's s.e.c. chair gensler taking aim at special interest in a new video, saving in firepower. >> this was such a breath of
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fresh air. 24 he trashed them like -- this is a remarkable video, must be watched. >> we keep waiting we know these things take a while f do you have an expect, there are responsibility people who say onto be on the griddle when the chairman takes aim. this was horrifying. if i was running a spac right now, i would say oh, my, i have to solve this. >> there's so many out there we'll get to all the numbers >> not everything is draftkings.
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>> new rules around marketing practices. we've talked so often about the alignment of incentives. that said, many of these spacs are trading below that are -- and many of an opportunity there's a bit of a used available to you the trump spac, as we call it. you fact, they agreed to be part of the initial underwriting and got warns and other things as a result of that, and then it hit, and look what happened >> what happens with the buzzfeed, which is down so much? what happens >> listen, i talked for weeks
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about redemption rates, how they weren't disclosing them immediately. this is another example of a company with did you seefeed 90% of shareholders chose to roe deem leaving very little in the trust fund to help continue growth then we have the winners, the lucids of the world we have another big deal today getty images i used to recommend it. >> it's neuberger's spac it's about 15 times on an enterprise value to what they ants pailed -- anticipated
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ebitda next year choose been the spac route, though, to go public, $150 million pipe there, but this has been one of the phenomenon of the year, and it's not stopping. you have 23 spac opportunities, so december is running hotter. you have 591 ipos so far now coming in 2021 jim, to answer your question, 568 are seeking a deal i mean, again, it goes back to how do you chase that many opportunities, what are you willing to offer in order to get your deal done
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as we know, even though redemptioning can be very high, these deals still get approved. >> there are deals, no doubt >> they wanted to buy the business. >> there are good deals, that represent potential good value over time, that have good management teams, but it requires a lot of focus from the investment community with so many out there, it's -- >> i hope gensler succeed and people watching the video realize it's a racket. it's one more piece from it, it's not too long, but does raise the question how his communications will evolve. >> we need to make sure that investors in spacs are being protected. whether or not, you as an investor get to decide where to put your money, but companies
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have to provide adequate disclosures. i think we can enhance the disclosures that they may. i have staff with recommendations of how to update the rules to investors are better infirmedormed. we'll also work to hold bad actors accountable and keep a close eye to all these parties in the transaction. >> does it make you feel they're a high priority? >> i felt, yes, this is something that i think chairman gensler has wanted to do remember when we said his plate was too full >> yeah. by the way, these are spacs that have not yet done a deal the only ones trading above are
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the -- >> the chairman points outs everyone early made money. he's not sondheim, who didn't even get mentioned on our show he should have the lights were dimmed this week on broadway. >> an amazing man. i got to meet him. >> you did >> i did >> i met him at merilee. >> never met him. >> have you ever met anybody >> oh, a handful of people [ laughter ] cramer's mad dash is coming up, and the opening bell a look at futures are getting better don't go away.
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broad com reporting after the bell, what do you think? >> you and i know broad com. this is an amazing company one of the reasons why a lot of tech is flying today, he basically said, everything is strong, hyper-computing is strong, telco, a big customer is apple. you can't mention apple, but this is the most bullish i've ever heard him there is -- basically what he's saying is the spend for hyper computing among the megagiants
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is unprecedented they can't make stuff fast enough. >> but it's also used m&a pivoting from chips to software, but buying back $10 billion of stock perhaps indicates a way that there's not anything near term -- >> not indicates he point-blank says it isn't it interesting you could have all those spacs trying to find things to bike, and he's a very shrewd acquirer, the kings who know how to buy things are staying away >> i'm sure there are potential things he doesn't want to pay for. does that detract from the story? they've had a good track record of buying things at the right price. >> he basically has named his price
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and makes you do long-term contracts. this is a remarkable call. i've never heard hawk to ebue el yen about -- >> you can catch us anytime anywhere, an listen to the "squawk on the street" opening bell podcast
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oracle is up last night on the earnings call, there was a veiled swipe at aws. mean while deutsche, ups to buy this morning >> this was an amazing call larry ellison trash s.a.p, yes,
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aws, the idea his cloud doesn't have any people, it's all digital, so it can't go down on-premise, every big bank, bank of america just on-boarded to see what a competitive ceo is like, ellison pulls no punches marc benioff -- >> he's not ceo, actually. >> he's chairman. >> chief technical officer, something like that. >> he's chief evangelist. >> yeah. >> i just love him he doesn't like me i once went to his island. >> and don't forget he owns a lot of tesla, more than cathie wood, i was reminded yesterday he's a visionary, a genius, competitor he doesn't care about anything
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other than winning you've got to love that. >> he's doing it a business is very strong. [ bell ringing ] also cvent celebrating a lista via spac >> can you imagine a couple strangers get together and you write them a check >> the way he presented that, i think it's clear from chairman gensler how he feels, or how he feels he -- but they're not going art. will we ever see the left of by
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the way, ipos in general has not been a good year >> a lot of it is -- >> a lot of it is due to spacs >> many of these deals are bad i was out to dirt with a guy, i said, what do you have i have a spac. what are you doing >> i've got a spac >> we would have all figured it out a couple years ago and there would be empty chairs at this desk. >> but we work for a company, we have a contract with comcast. >> it's a great company. the stock is up. it's up. look at that by the way, i'm glad i have a contract, because i could get fired for talking about it -- i'm kidding. >> a basket of comcast, altice and charter has underperformed the s&p by 30%.
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>> house of pain. >> verizon, at&t, t-mobile -- we did all of this yesterday -- have also been significant underperformer at&t shares crawling back. they're down 20% >> i was working on dividend aristocrats because you have hormel as an arrest during that time >> what is a dividend arr aristocrat. >> a investor who has -- >> it's disappointment as a result of the deal they're pursuing and likely to close with discovery to merge the warner unit with discovery >> whether do they boom? >> i think those who look at discovery shares in terms of the implied company and think there may be value there there's still concerned about
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the debt left of the company talking about revenue synergies. it still equals concern. >> is there a way, you can, without doing a deal, that you can reinvent yourself and just come up with a product, like roku roku came out of nowhere. >> something in your dries that's different from what you thought. i subscribe to disney plus, to espn plus i'm just saying something on the drawing board it's a great point
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>> it's a competitive environment. we'll see what 2022 brings >> i know we just did oracle, but the stock began the year at $ $61. >> at one point he talks about the hybrid cloud you're on-premise, but then you can do it on the cloud -- he calls it ridiculous. you want to control the whole thing, so you have a cloud that could be hammond that you're in control of he's offering you a value proposition that's actually irreplaceable.
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all the banks. i mean, oh, by the way, the healthcare companies are all going with him it's a tour deforce call >> so how, when we talk about the major cloud providers, obvious lip microsoft, alphabet, where do you rank oracle in the verticals that they're in, it's game set match. one of the things that's so hard is that you don't know them. remember, urn saying, do buybacks work? they were returning so much in dividends. this is a company we used to
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talk about constantly. of course, mar hurd passed away. just indribble credible, and i miss mark. i'm the great carnac. >> does that make me mcmahan it sold another, what, 312 he owns -- saying he owns 96 shares after a sale of 313 the cfo is done. he's out
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he sold 18,000 shares. they were all trading plans adopted as well. they're managing to monetize >> i do think there's a general belief among those who follow the companies closely -- in the annualu community. >> how about gamestop's call yesterday? they've got to really start running the call >> if we're going to start comparing meme names -- >> remember the -- chewy's
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quarter hasn't been that hot >> they're getting more on "closing bell" yet. >> i felt great. >> he was on with sara and myself >> q4 was basically in line, nothing too fancy. >> but it's begging customers, but you know, you never want to hear they've got a supply chain issue. was it -- look, they're very transparent, and getting more per customer was it better than lulu? >> i don't know. >> wow, mirror mirror on the wall. >> lulu has -- it's valid at a multiple to revenues that's extraordinary for any company, let alone a retailer many say it's well deserved, given what this company has been able to accomplish
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people are focused on muir and how it may not be working. i bought the mirror as a surprise for my daughter, who doesn't watch the show it comes in giant pieces, you have to have someone stay at home it's sitting -- i'm not doing anything with it it's so big. peloton close to a three handle, jim. >> did you see the guy about having a heart attack on delta >> i don't think the company has
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addressed it. >> my wife watched that last night. they killed him off on the first episode? >> i don't care. don't watch it, anyway it's really not that good. >> the downgrade had a lot to be desired. >> well, the pandemic has run its course, some people may disagree. >> peopler accepting the risk and going back to planet fitness. they're going to spend more on technology
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above-average industry costs, and longer path to pre-covid profitability. >> they had three analysts say bad things i don't think that it's worth betting again southwest here it's a pretty good company they have labor issues all the airlines have to spend a lot on technology. these things -- southwest is good customer service, but customer service these days, remember the united club >> no. >> it's really good. >> is it we could quickly do moderna on flu vaccine data that i guessimpress the market.
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middle easterna is not just one shot -- >> it's basically cut in half. at one point i remember it was challenging merck now it's below $100 billion >> i love vancil, i think he'll pull off more than people realize. >> easy to say now, isn't it >> well, yeah. you mean second-guessing >> you were never a big proponent? >> i like pfizer pfizer has so much going for it. phi ser a good company. >> we talked to oracle
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cisco and salesforce are leading the dow. there's a report that microsoft will get clearance on nuance in the eu >> you've still waiting for that close? he's slack is very, very good. benioff gets mentioned on the oracle call, and there are people who didn't like the benioff guidance remember he cut it down to 72 cents, and explaining the dollar. >> i'm glad we're in the benioff part of the show now we did the farley part i want to talk about microsoft, and you can't help yourself. >> where's our -- jensen we should just have segments titled -- >> you want that there's a report out today about who are the winners in the
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omniverse, metaverse, and where is -- there's not even a plaque or monument to jensen. >> so the as toic is getting hit. >> it's down fractionally now, when -- and that it did curtail some of the enthusiasm mark did have -- he's been having these very interesting salon dinners. he had yo yo ma. >> he had him in person? that wasn't in the metametavers >> you have to have a pcr to go to the dinner.
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these days everybody has to test for everything by the way, testing is much easier, thankfully binax is everywhere, and the stock continues to do well you have to test regularly, because you don't know who has it everyone thinking they're gouging, that's not right. they haven't raised the price. in europe, in london, they give it three. >> testing here is -- i love the conc concierge. i like it. >> guys, we're hanging on to 47 hundred, rough ly hey, bop. >> we're up nicely it's not a huge rally, but a very broad rally well, 4 to 1 advancing to declining stocks, that's a broad rally.
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more importantly broad in terms of sectors growth like technology stocks. broad com is up like $50, close to 10% with a great report just killing it on all cylinders. there's materials, so you get sectors that have cyclical characteristics. consumer staples, that's a brought rally transports are not partsing as much, but, by and large, the a airlines have had a operate good week. the headline on the cpi, we know what the headlines will be it's not great, but not unexpected this is a completely different market than two weeks ago. the fed has already become more hawkish. had the fed done nothing, we
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would not see the market like this, what else has happened emerging markets have moved down that's a typical reaction. and we've seen special latif tech already weaker. >> look at the more speculative tech stocks, stuff associated with cathie wood, for example, this is a pretty big difference. you can't go on and on there's dozens of names here
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associated with it you see the huge bifurcation a big golf in terms of what investors want to keep what's going to happen in the next couple weeks? obviously the fed, and again give the fed some -- the tightening has been well tell graphed. fauci, give him some credit, he was right direction all where the story was going so far i still maintain if that is the correct narrative, the big story will become how strong will the con consumer remain. not in john wear, but june, july, and we're going to be talking about that come january.
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carl, back to you the consensus largely got it right, some take some solace in the core. prior months was 0.6 the ten-year is back to 1.47 on a real basis, lowers levels in several, several years. dow is up 154. we'll be right back. as i observe investors balance risk and reward, i see one element securing portfolios, time after time. gold. your strategic advantage. ♪♪ this flag isn't backwards.
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a reminder you can get in on the new cnbc investing club with jim, especially on the heels of his event yesterday, which was fabulous or use the qr code on the screen hanging on to pretty steady gains. trade 4692
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let's get to jim and stop trading. >> and callen was doing a couple of really good pooess. my favorite is talking about
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macy'. macy's from the summer went all the way up they have great omni, great third-party markplace. growing loyalty program. you've sidestepped a gigantic move up as people got dpexcited about the idea of spinning off the dot com. i think it's a good holiday season i like this very much. >> how about tonight >> i'm possessed by housing. the decking that i use i don't know if you know, now he's doing an amazing job at azek i want to get the temperature of people putting new decks down. everything in a home put up factories, try to keep up with demand. this is some country right now wow. demand and everything. even preached. >> yes thankfully and perhaps not a shortage >> that would be devastating
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i'm from philadelphia. that would say a lot about us. >> where the cream cheese comes from >> good week "mad money" 6:00 p.m. eastern time when we come back, white house reaction from the cpi data we'll talk about the chair of economic advisors. dow's up 114 ♪ limu emu... & doug ♪ ♪ superpowers from a spider bite? i could use some help showing the world how
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♪ good friday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. live at post nine of the new york stock exchange. cpi, year on year, is the highest since june of 1982 but does look like consensus got us ready for it meanwhile, consumer sentiment. rick >> yes these are december preliminary numbers. 70.0 70.4 70.4 is the preliminary sentiment number that follows last month 's final read so, it's definitely much better
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and if we look through expectations, what we see is current conditions, 74.6, much better than we're looking for. we look at what lies ahead 67.8 a nice jump, verses our last month read at 67.5 many pay more attention at the inflation aspects. the one-year outlook for university of survey respondents, 4.9 this is a 13-year high second month in a row this is preliminary, i remind you and on the five to-ten-year inflation outlook, this remains 3% to find a higher rating, you have to go back ten years. so, once again, just like cpi, the year over year on cpi and these one and five to ten-year remain very sticky regard to inflation. morgan, back to you. >> rick, thank you
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we are 30 minutes into the trading session. we're going to start with shares of lululemon the company warning new covid variants could impact demand shares down 2% plus chewy shares getting crushed. after reporting a wider than ecpecked quarterly loss, that stock is down 7.5% and 42% year to date. pel peloton down graded and noting a number of head winds include of out of home fitness. plug your years for my spoiler alert. the new revival show and just like that, which kills off mr. big with a heart attack on his peloton elicited a response from the company can't be helping shares either >> that was actually on in my
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house last night, morgan and i couldn't watch i couldn't watch mr. big come on. how could they do that to him? yeah all right. inflation rising to 6.8% that is the highest since 1982 putting pressure on the economic recovery and of the course, all eyes continue to be on the fed my eyes, your eyes what do you think? >> where else would you look i mean the november report underscores three important and worrisome parts of the inflation story. it's widespread. the 6.8% headline given to you by the one and only david faber. mark the highest rate of cpi since 82 and the core rate is continuing to rise. that's 4.9%, the highest since 1991 the key is that it's not just energy or food, both of which are up strongly this year. apparel's up 5%.
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used car prices up 31% the rising cost of housing belatedly now working into the cpi as are higher wages. up 3.5%. and there could be more to come. yet, markets appear to be braced for this report and maybe even worse. yields fell on the news that stocks rallied at least for now. there was little change in the outlook for the fed, which has positioned itself to being more concerned about inflation and ready now to acted to counterit. markets continue to expect the first rate hike in may a second in september and you can see the third priced in for december but that positions the fed for the current level and inflation outlook. if more housing or wage-price gains work in the index and inflation does not cool by the summer, that outlook could turn more hawkish yet again morgan >> and we're going to be watching all of that
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steve, thank you for bringing us the latest joining us is wells fargo investment institute, strategist and advisory services, to continue to dig into this conversation gentleman, good morning to you both i mean, we did have this hot inflation read, right? fastest pace in almost four years and yet, equities are higher, treasury yields are ticking lower. was this already priced inat the market how do you see this adding to or shifting, if it does at all, your investment thesis as we go into another year? >> it was somewhat unexpected and that's why you're seeing the long end of the bond curve start to do well in terms of yields falling and -- prices falling. this is the market giving the fed a green light to start to begin to raise interest rates. and your ror on the right path with respecting to tapering faster and thinking about rate
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increases because that long end of the curve is what's most sensitive to inflation expectations the fact it's doing well tells us the market was ready. >> keith, do you see the same way? the market giving the fed a green light here >> good morning. i think the way i look at this is markets are all about expectations and this came in relative to expectations and there was whisper numbers that could be worse. as far as the more direct question on the fed, this definitely allows them to move forward with even a more accelerated taper. i will say right now the markets found the price in three rate hikes. we think that's too aggressive, especially with the 10-year below 150. if they want to preserve yield curves, i think they're going to go at a more cautious space. and inflation will stay somewhat elevated, it will stay decelerated as we go over year
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over year comps. >> how should investors be positioned next year >> our view, we've been bullish over the last two years and we're still positive but also realistic that after the big bull market, after we've seen the rebound in valuations and earnings, that we're going to grow at a more modest pace next year, we still are favorable on equities. from a sector strategy, where you have more of a bar bell strategy, because we think we're going to have a back and forth between is the fed going too fast, too slow, new variants come in? we like areas of technology doing well today and we like cyclicals area like financials and see it as more favorable relative the international we're more negtive on emerging markets as we head to next year. >> what do you see the biggest
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risks of the market as we head to 2022 and what does that mean for the way you're counseling investors to be positioned to? >> i mean, look, the biggest risk probably does remain the fed and possibility that they may end up making a policy mistake. we think the probabilities are very low the forecasts and look at other people's forecast for next year. i think that's the biggest distinction. there's a lot of people baking a fed policy mistake and we're not in that camp we remain pretty constructive because we think the fed will get this right and so, we like stocks we think there's another solid year next year a target on the s&p. a 50% total return from current levels we like u.s. equities. large, mid we also like tech, communications services. a good mix of cyclicals and growth the way we've been telling
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investors the position is the tag line is stock bonds and anything defensive >> we'll leave the conversation there. thank you for kicking off the hour with us >> thank you staying with the markets and this morning's inflation data. here with the first response from the biden administration here is the chair of economic counsels good to have you with us this morning. >> good morning. >> i saw yesterday, brian december wouldn't predict what would happen to prices next year but there's a view somewhat that headline might be peeking here i'll give you a chance to let us know whether you agree >> to consider the economy as a whole, we know the unemployment rate has roared down, i guess i would say too, 4.2%. that this has been one of the fastest labor mark recoveries, following a down turn. so, we are optimistic that the recovery continues to heal going to 2022.
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and so, with that, i think inflation will come down over the coming months. obviously that will depend on a number of things but we're working hard to reach supply chain challenges and working hard to reach any bottle necks we may see and we believe as we get at the other side of the pandemic, obviously, that's the control of the virus but as we work hard to get vaccinations into arms as we vaccinate the rest of the world, that economies around the world will heal and we'll see inflation pressures ease >> so, when you think about the pandemic and any relief we might get next year, let's all hope so, do you see it as hawkish because it will store more demand or dovish because supply might continue to be challenged in that case >> there are two sides to the market and i think that's a very good point i see it more as that the market comes back into equilibrium.
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right now we have demand outstripping supply. we know that actually when it comes to global supply, that the through port at our ports is higher than prepandemic and consumers are buying goods what i believe will be coming is more demand and supply will equal brat obviously, we hope that happens in tandem so we don't have further hiccups along the way. >> just to dig into that a little bit i think across the board, economists, wall street strategists expect these to the can come down as we see the worst of bottle necks and supply chain. what would be an acceptable level of inflation >> the fed has set a target of, often average, 2%. but i think it's important that, from this administration's
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perspective, the president's really focussed on increasing economic capacity at large that's the foundation of the infrastructure jobs law that was passed that's the foundation of the build back better plan with the senate and we hope will pass congress soon and that tries to increase economic capacity by getting people back to work, which helps on the labor supply front. the point is to build capacity sothe economy -- that's the wa to ease inflation going forward. it's so important going forward. >> you know, supply chain issues we could imagine will help amealierate cost increases and what about food and shelter? obviously, twoing things that ae very key to living what are your expectations given what have been significant move said up for both >> that's a fair point and with food, the administration has been focussed on concentration in the food industry
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some of that comes from environmental challenges around the world and some of it is about energy prices and as they're starting to amealierate, we expect to see some of that show up in food prices as well housing is a challenge we've had a long term challenge on the supply side of housing, ever since the financial down turn of 2008, 2009 and again as part of the build back better plan, there are -- there's an effort to put more investments into our housing sector because it's a challenge. it was exacerbated and it needs to be addressed. >> when you look at inflation expectations for say five or ten years, they've crept up but their -- they're not as bad as they were, saying in the 2014 or 2013 i wonder if that's because people have confidence in the fed or do they look at long-term demographics in this country or are they convinced productivity
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and cap ex is going to keep a drievl >> i think one is that the immediate past experience -- when i say immediate -- i'm showing my age here. going back ten/twenty years we haven't seen inflation pop the way it did in the early 70s and '80s i know that's the concern of many even after many are expecting >>flation after the great recession, we didn't see that materialize. we have confid tence the fed has the tools to address theflation. the fed was strug gling with too low inflation, which meant it didn't have room to do traditional monetary policy. we have the confidence the fed can achieve its monetary goals and we just believe that w the investments we're making on the
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physical infrastructure and human infrastructure and human capitol that we'll have economic capacity, our economy can better absorb and ease inflationary pressure with increased -- that's through increased productivity not by stoking demand. that's why they agree it does not add to inflationary pressure. for it's investment over the long term and building capacity >> treasury secretary yellen, earlier this month, actually admitted that the trump-era tariffs on important goods from china, if we were to lift those altogether, that could help with inflationary pressures is that on the table for the administration >> the administration is doing comprehensive view of the tariffs. what is the economic rational of having them in place and again, this administration, this president is focussed on trying to ease price and looking at every tool in the tool box.
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>> i heard you mention build back better and your contention it won't raise inflation. for it's a significant concern of one senator named joe manchin. what would be the arguments you make to him to get his vote? >> i would make three points to him. one is that if we actually look at the federal spending for this fiscal year, 2022, we are facing significant fiscal head winds. there's a fiscal drag that we haven't seen since the end of world war ii in this fiscal year. the build back better plan does not contribute to that that -- the fiscal drag of about 8.5 percentage growth, that is with the build back better plan and the infrastructure bill built in and i would point out these are investments. they spend over time this is not like the rescue plan where we needed to get money into the economy quickly
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these are meant to be spent over time and 3rdly, they're meant to be increasing the produlctival capacity of our economy. economists widely agree on this point. >> finally, yesterday, the president made news by arguing today's print would not reflect the decreases we've seen in energy cost. >> what we know is since these data were collected, we've seen moderation and natural gas and in oil prices. and so, as the data are collected for the december print, we would expect to see the decreases reflected then >> thanks so much for your time. obviously a huge story for the markets and we love having you on thank you very much. as we go to break, a look at the road map for the next hour
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larry elson taking a swipe on yesterday's earnings call. >> and moderna shares are down rather sharply and posting data from the early flu vaccine study. and starbucks employees at a buffalo store location voting to unionize a first for the coffee chain giant. we have those details. a lot more "squack on the street" straight ahead dad, we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. yay! we got this. we got this! life is for living. we got this! let's partner for all of it. edward jones do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate
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let me close with a note that i'm going to paraphrase from a very large telecommunic and the note basically said the one thing we've noticed about oracle, oracle's cloud is that it never, ever goes down we can't say that about any of the other clouds >> that was oracle's chairman, larry elson last night on the company's earnings call, taking a bit of a jab at the competition, including of course, amazon web services in the wake of a recent outage. oracle is up sharply they did beat on estimates driven by cloud revenue and the next guest raising price on the stock. yeah, alex, i was going to ask about your price target, which had been noivl
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noivl. 95. how about the quarter itself i think it says you're at a hold >> thanks for the question and happy holidays to you and all your listeners i think -- look, it was a strong quarter at a time when not every was having a strong quarter and i think it was vintage larry. the power of the apps. there's easier competition out there than aws and it's some of the other companies and i think you saw that this is a company again that they sort of invented the notion of the cloud at the same time as famously declaring that it was not going to work for large enterprise organizations the thing that stood out to us, the continued momentum of the cloud. this is oracle is investing class and less than a quarter of the revenue and we think it's more than 80% or close to 80% of the incremental growth dollars
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and we believe coming out of the pandemic, it was a y 2 k event, if you will for back office transformations and we believe that's going to accelerate next year as a lot of companies are faced, not just with supply chain shortages and a war on talent but a completely different configuration of their entire organization. >> given all that, i'm just curious in the momentum you just described, you know, from your point of view, what is holding you back or giving you pause that you can have a hold rating on the stock >> look, we cover a lot of growth companies and we believe that oracle is now getting into a mode where they're starting to execute effectivally for us, it's time. we've covered oracle for a number of years. there have been false starts before we want to be patient. we want to see the second half
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is the mos they're going into their third quarter. fourth quarter we want to see how they execute and if they can keep up the momentum and if they k it's trading below the s&p on a momentum earnings multiple >> do investors fully appreciate the opportunity for a company like oracle or, by the way, amazon or microsoft or others where government contracting work is concerned? >> i thing it's an interesting question the era of mean stocks and wall street bets and one thing that large tech investors love is a old dog that learns new tricks oracle, you can see the pathway microsoft laid many years ago, when they embraced and transitioned fully to the cloud. that's the kind of pattern that oracle wants investors to think about when looking at the opportunity they have.
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larry referenced how microsoft moved their office space into the cloud and how the company is now moving its basis of large application and they only moved a thousand out of 8500 in the next five to ten years there's an opportunity to move the rest that's the pattern recognition that can potentially be powerful and if investors start to gain confidence in the durability of the growth and opportunity for it to be more profitable and see more earnings power, the sky is the limit. >> so, here's wait and see a hold rating on oracle right now. what would you buy instead, if you choose one or two names. >> we have a new monic, we call it cat woman the "c" stands for sales force, a ", is for -- and service now it's really this next generation
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breed of cloud companies where we think you can benefit from really high level management, great markets and really powerful margins >> alex, thank you appreciate your time >> thank you, guys >> before the break, take a closer look at moderna a big drop following the flu 'rba itwmitey. wee ckn o nus.
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welcome back here is your cnbc news update at this hour. in a ruling just about 30 minutes ago, the supreme court says abortion providers in texas can sue over the state's ban on most abortions but the high court declined to block enforcement of the law while challenges are underway. and win as court victory of assange. they ruled assange can be extradited to the u.s. that violates the decision
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previous great britain will require a mask be worn in all places without a vaccine requirement. and a 35-year-old man was taken into custody by an air marshal after allegedly assaulting a flight attendant the delta jet was going from washington to los angeles but then diverted to oklahoma city it appears to be yet another incident of attacks on flights, which seems to be rising for sure i'll send it back to you, david. >> been a very unfortunate year for that let's turn now to megtyrell. she's got a look at moderna's stock, which has dropped today it's not because of covid vaccines, is it, meg >> no. i was actually talking to experts in the space this morning and they're like we never get to talk about anything other than covid it's flu
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the first data we're seeing on the flu vaccine efforts. they stack up well against existing flu vaccines. these are the neutralizing antibody levels and they are higher than what is typically used for clearance of vaccines but morgan stanley points out these, quote, appear in line with flu zone hd, an existing high-dose vaccine already on the market, which likely disappoints the market moderna is it making a point that this is not the end of their plans for flu vaccines they plan to combine, ultimately their flu shot with the covid shot and maybe a shot against rsv, another respiratory virus quote, our first shot on flu is non-inferior to the best product in the market people have worked on in 20 or 30 or 40 years in traditional pharma." it's regulatory language, just means they need to show they're
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as good as what's already out there. you can see moderna 's stock down 10% as there were high expectations it would blow everything out of the water. >> >>mier i'm not going to lose an opportunity to talk about covid as well. there's been reporting from you or something from interview you did about a potential fourth shot in terms of combatting omicron and people seem confused on twitter tell us what we know >> so, when we talked with albert a couple of days ago and they had their first look at antibody levels generated against omicron, he suggested perhaps for the immuno compromise a fourth dose could be considered and suggested it's not clear if and when we'll need a fourth dose and it would potentially be sooner than what he would be projecting of 12 months between boosters after
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this it seems like it's not clear we're going to have to see data. there's been suggestions that data shows three doses hold up well against omicron there's other studies that show the fall off is faster with this variant. this is information we'll get in the coming weeks and months. as we head to a break, keep an eye on shares of amc. got it down 8% a lot of insider selling i've been talking for some time about the ceo. would he sell? well, he has he sold 313,000 shares the cfo left with 96,000 shares. he's out entirely. at least for now maybe he'll get reloaded he's out with the sale of 18,000 shares we're back in two minutes.
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inflation rising to a 39-year high, cpi topping 35% for the fifth straight months. costco shrugging off rising costs in q1. and tops forecast. the company saying it's largely able to mitigate the delays. joining us is da davidson's michael baker. we have shares of costco up almost 5% right now. your take away from the earnings report we got after the bell and whether it changes your investment thesis. >> they obviously have a great quarter and the stock is having a terrific reaction. i thought what was important from the call is hearing costco's view on things, like supply chain and inflation and a couple of amazing statistics 79% of their inports have been delayed by an average of 51 days costco's been able to work around that and i think that's a
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testament to how the company operates on the inflation side, they're seeing 4.5 to 5.5% increase. some is being passed through customers and they have structural advantages. clearly they're doing a great job and i think stock is being rewarded for it. >> and i think they signalled they may increase some prices going to the new year as well. we've been hearing about it, seeing the macro data and we know many companies, consumer-basing companies have been able to raise prices, for all of their costs push it out to their customer base as well at what point does that dynamic start to tip over or change. if we continue to see inflation numbers and costco, 4.5 to 5% range. if we continue to see inflation growth like that, what point
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does that start to dent demand >> i am disappointed that is coming and particularly the food and home inflation is now rising as fast as it has since the pandemic began. for it's been accelerated for four or five straight months. some of the food retailers, costco they go as far as better than they have the previous two quarters but they are down. walmart and target are starting to absorb increases. as i think about 2022. some of the stimulus out in the saw in 2021, is going to go away i think that might make it more difficult for consumers to absorb these higher costs. >> on labor, costco's fames forrall ways having industry-high comp when you look at the small but important vote at starbucks, kellogg, deer, i wonder if you're beginning to fold in the prospect of labor action down
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the road with costco >> not specifically labor action we expect their labor rates will continue to increase they pay great salaries and that's continuing. we are seeing higher sga and the sales is so strong they've been able to leverage it. we think there will be persistent labor cost increases, not just for costco but others and for instance, raising wages and trying to close the gap relative to costco as well >> we're largely through this earnings season cycle with retailers. are there other names that you cover that would present buying opportunities right now at these levels given what we know going into 2022? >> actually, we put out a report earlier this week where we highlighted six predictions for 2022, as well as what we learned in the third quarter as we are
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now full of and through our earnings reports trends on a two-year basis we're as strong in the third quar quarter. and one we talked about in pjs we think pjs have improved quite a bit from prepandemic growth numbers were just as strong as costco's yet, it's trading at half the multiple of costco and what we highlighted is alta. interestingly their key category hasn't recovered yet to 2019 levels it's one of the few consumer areas that hasn't fully recovered. we think that will be a positive >> all right michael, thanks for joining us today. >> happy to do it. thank you. >> starbucks employees in one buffalo location voting to
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create the first union for the company. our cate rogers has the late frs us >> good morning. workers at one starbucks location notching a win, informing the first union since the company went public. starbucks did prevail at a second location, which the union may contest and pending due to unresolved challenges. while the ability to unionize is progress for starbucks workers united they are hopeful starbucks will come to the sttable and hopeful agree to a contract, which they don't have to do meanwhile, rossann williams said they're preliminary and don't change the shared focus with its workers. and three more stores in buffalo and one in mesa, arizona are expecting to organize. as for the broader restaurant industry, this could be an important development. writing thursday, quote, if this move create as tail wind for
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other concepts to see their employees follow suit, we expect starbucked could be among the handful of scaled concepts and trillium asset management have called on starbucks to accept the decision of unionizing and the share hltders also allege starbucks meddled in the organizing process tlrs the stock higher this morning, up over 1%. back to you. >> kate, what's next on the timeline with this are we going to see other union hearings for starbucks >> yeah, so for these three stores, they have five days on both sides to present challenges they need to be certified as well there may be additional hearings the one store that did vote to unionize, starbucks doesn't seem like it's going to challenge that one and there are potential
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challenges on both sides potentially a long road ahead and the group of workers that did form the union, they have about a year to get to work with starbucks and see if they'll negotiate and agree to a contract if not, workers who are not seeing progress here in the union front can move to dissolve that union after about a year. we'll see what happens but certainly more developments for starbucks to come. >> a year? this is go doining to be an interesting year as we head to break, watching shares of broadcom, upabout 8% along side an upbeat guidance forecast broad band continuing to see high demand from cloud computing customers. more ahead as major averages are higher stay with us
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it's a mega cap cage match
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with alphabet, amazon and tesla going head-to-head see who comes ahead victorious what's strong with me? i'm ready for anything.
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find out what's strong with you with fitbit charge 5 and daily readiness. elon musk selling another nearly million shares of tesla according to an sec filing shares continue in the face of what will be a large tax bill. that relates to exercises of options that are incredibly low in price but will generate a significant gain senator bernie sanders going after the tech mogul again, tweeting, quote, you're a billionaire. good for you you want to zoom around on a rocket and pretend you're an astronaut. that's are fine. it's a good country but don't complain about sharing your fair of taxes it's been a bad week for tesla he's been selling consistently and will continue to do so as
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the options expire, i think in august of 2022 >> doing that in large part for tax purposes i mean, i think it's worth noting, maybe not so much with tesla but with spacex. spacex is a government contractor however, i mean, nasa itself, last year, basically came out and said if it wasn't for the commercial crew program, which spacex is part of and it's the only one with an operational capsule carrying astronauts to space, that saved between 20 and $30 billion. it's been taxpayer money that's been saved there's the flip side, at least from a space standpoint, where elon musk is concerned >> meanwhile, it's been interesting watching elon poke lawmakers on twitter but at the same time continue to tease the market about quitting all of his jobs and being an influencer >> i don't think that's going to happen
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>> he can probably sell anything >> and build about anything, arguably >> he's unique but it's been an interesting week to hear him he's upset with the potential subsidies for build back better and union jobs, which would not go to tesla and tesla cars he's worried about the deficit for some reason now, which i never heard him talking about in the past >> and the say symmetry between his criticisms of our government and the chinese government they do need china for sure. coming up on "tech check" we're going to talk to the analyst stocks down more than 70% for the year 3861 that's coming up in the top of the hour dow's up 50. don't go away.
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time for our etf spotlight dom chu is looking at apple's incredible run as it continues to inch closer to becoming the 3 million market cap company that's the number a lot of folks are watching to hit that 1 or $3 trillion mark there in regard to the next move in the trillion camp for a lot of ofolks not hard to
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remember a time when apple shares were real underperformers and range bound going no where for the first half of the year and we saw a rally that took us to record highs and that was up 42% during the big run since the beginning of june we'll call it there abouts that move in apple, of course, has taken it to market cap highs we've never seen before. it has a massive waiting we already know in places like the s&p 500. the nasdaq 100 and, of course, the technology sector overall within the s&p if you take a look at the moves that we've seen over the course of that period where apple has made that run, it has a large responsibility in kind of pushing that move higher for these indices, the major ones out here in terms of etfs. the qqq trust up 25% and 33% on the year to date basis a lot of that was just from june by the way, for the invesco qqq trust we're talking about apple making 12% or so percent of that
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and the tech spdr. check out this particular one. it's a fidelity-related etf. mci information tech 21% waiting to apple, as well. give you some perspective when apple is an overweight in an index. we know what it is and also an etf called the first trust nasdaq 100 equal weight etf. all 100 index components roughly of the same weight but take a look at this. in june you can see kind of roughly tracking together the entire first part of this year and then that divergence really started to happen. if you take a look at the moves here for this equal weighted etf, morgan, we're talking roughly 1.2% waiting for apple versus the massive waiting that we see about 12% or so in the qqq overall. that tends to drive a lot of the divergences that we're seeing.
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keep an eye on those guys as we send things over to you, morgan. >> some great context. dom chu, thank you take a look at the top gainers on the s&p for a week which is having an upweek. norwegian cruise lines at the top of the list up 16% oracle, broadcom on the heels of earnings and centene leading the charge we're going to be back in two. wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq
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welcome back to "squawk on the street." inflation highest level since 1982 our christina is looking at one group as a potential hedge hi, christina. >> hi, morgan. well, either or. precious metals have been sinking as of late gold futures are seeing a little rally today after that cpi report some are debating whether inflation is coming closer to its peek gold is seen as a hedge against inflation and the precious metal right now is on pace for its fourth weekly straight weekly loss and on a year-to-date basis the commodity is down almost 6%. but you may or the precious metal, i should say. but you may benefit if you hold.
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that's because analysts say gold has returned 2.8% on average in january over the past ten years because of demand from the chinese new year but platinum and palladium are suffering some losses due to sluggish vehicle production due to the chip shortage as we know, modest demand growth and easing constraints at mine operations so, that adds more to the supply and it's creating somewhat of a head wind right now for the prices you can see down double digits over the past year. silver is on pace for its fourth weekly losing streak and one of its biggest losses in seven years. down right now 17% year to date. consensus, though, on wall street is relative ly mixed citi analysts predict fall next year due to the rising real rates and a substantial surplus of the precious metal. but bank of america analysts believe the silver, that silver could hit more than 30 bucks an ounce as we transition to more solar panels and mine supply
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stays flat so, overall weaker crude and renewed investor risk appetite are putting pressure on the safe haven metals but wall street is focused on real rates david, i'll throw it back to you. >> i will thank you, kristina and say good-bye to everybody. that will do it for us on "squawk on the street. "techcheck" starts now good friday morning. welcome to "techcheck" i'm carl quintanilla. deidre is off today. never ever goes down larry ellison takes a shot at amazon as oracle takes a big leg higher and semis continue to outperform a downgrade to peloton the stock is coasting in the wrong direction. we'll talk to th

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