tv Fast Money CNBC December 10, 2021 5:00pm-5:30pm EST
a little bit if we don't get anything unexpected, but we'll see. nobody has repealed the season bullish effects, not yet. >> it's so broad every sector finished the week higher, and the top two were technology and energy, which doesn't usually happen together. >> right so a little bit diverse in how we got here. >> thanks for being with us today. that's going to do it for "closing bell. have a good weekend, everyone. "fast money" begins now. sq live from the nasdaq marketsite overlooking new york's city's time square. this is "fast money. welcome, everybody tonight's trader lineup, tim seymour, steve grasso, nadine tu turman getting myself a double dose of pete today tonight on fast, call it inflation-proofing your portfolio. the chart master has three ways to play these insane rising prices we'll tell you what they are and how to trade them. plus, revving up
the old school auto companies surging today. ford at a 20-year high what is driving the moves? and later, meta. where options traders think the company formerly known as facebook needs a reality check happy friday, everybody. we have got a big show for you tonight, and we start with the inflation print heard around the world. consumer prices rising at their highest level in nearly 40 years with things like gasoline, rents, used car prices all seeing big gains but here i guess is the good news if you want to call it that a surge in consumer prices did not seem to spook the markets. the major indexes, they all rose, posted their best weeks since february the s&p setting its first record close since november 18th by the way. its 67th high close of the year. here's maybe an r.b.i., i guess. according to compound capital,
that is the most record closes in a year for the s&p 500 except for any year other than 1995 second all time. by the way, still got a couple weeks left in the year, i'm told so with prices surging, president biden saying he wants to bring them down will that force the fed's hand to raise rates at a faster pace that many investors are assuming tim, as sarah just said in "closing bell," it is a fed meeting next week. does the picture change for j. powell and company >> well, i think, you know, we'll get the real outcome of that fed minutes and we won't totally know where we stand. but i do think you have a case here where you talked about where the market is record number of closing highs. some of that's a function of less fed there's no way we're going to duplicate that next year, and i realize it was a record, so no expectation we might but there's no question that the fed is in the mode where they've changed -- they've changed their
rhetoric they've changed dramatically look at the two-year note today, got up over 70, so set at high for this cycle where the market is moving ahead, probably three times of a hike into 2023. so the bottom line here is this a week where equities went higher despite the fact that we printed a cpi print that was actually a relief with this record high. the key here, though, is the services inflation, which if you look at wage gains, i think they will be higher in 2022 and while headline, you know, wholesale and retail gas and food prices and some of the owners equivalent rent statistics are scary, they are coming down. those comps are coming down aggressively probably by february or march. but the core cpi is something that i think at some point needs to be priced into companies' earnings reports and their valuations, and i don't think it's going to happen in the next two to three months. >> steve grasso, are we at peak inflation now? people in the government saying
maybe early january, february, maybe march of next year, that will be the peak what do you think? and then how would you adjust your portfolio based on your answer to your own question? >> you got to love those so, yes, i'm going to say that we are at peak inflation so as much -- as many comments that we heard today, brian, about inflation, we heard equally as many about peak inflation. and i think the key is where do you go out, you know, when tim talks about the fed raising rates, i think we -- they have to curtail asset purchases first. not the same as raising rates. we all get that. but what does the market think the market has flattened the curve, the 210 spread, because they think the fed is way behind the curve. if the fed's way behind the curve, they've been selling the two-year, buying the ten-year, thinking that the fed is going to crimp growth going forward.
i don't think the fed is going to have to race and chase and be that far behind quite frankly. so what does that mean that means that you're going to wind up seeing buying of the two-year, selling of the ten-year, steepening of the curve. i think going into year end, everyone wants to hold on to those large cap growth technology names come january, i think you're going to see that really massive rotation into value, into chemical names, industrials, materials. >> yeah, maybe a lot of tax implications too don't want to sell those winners, suddenly wake up and find yourself having a giant tax bill, calling your accountant saying, what the heck happened here nadine, are you a believer in that, that we're going to have this rotation next year because of either the curve steepening or rates, the fed, or whatever it may be into those more, quote, value-type stocks or maybe even banks and financials? >> you know, we see it as a
transition but not the same transition i'm actually hoping for a hawkish fed meeting next week so i actually can buy some bonds and treasuries i think we are at peak inflation. i think there's going to be a decelerating growth of inflation. and when that happens, you want bond-like securities so you can have your treasuries at that point. so i'm hoping for it i don't know if i'm going to get one-six on the ten-year, if it will be in the 150s. but that's the point i think you can buy some security, real estate, utilities, staples, telecom. one week ago, we were with the vix over 30, and here with the vix over 20. so risk has been taken off the table. so it's another reason why you can think about adding some defensives to the portfolio. >> yeah, some of the narrative around omicron has changed it looked fairly mild as well. talk about a brond proxy, i thik it was bespoke that talked about the outperformance of apple
versus the rest of the market, kind of at a record high people are sort of buying apple almost as a bond proxy, right? they just think it will never go down, and the company will hold up what's your take on sort of big tech, apple, whatever, generally right now, pete? >> yeah, and that's where the rotation -- again, everybody is talking about rotation into next year i'm looking at rotation that's going on right now in front of us that's exactly what we're seeing, brian. as a matter of fact, you look at what was really pumping things today. it wasn't just apple it was also oracle it was cisco it was microsoft you get a little bit of a trend going there. it's big cap tech that does not have those high multiple kind of numbers behind them. i think that's been really the story line that fits best with what we're seeing in the markets itself and where money is going because those are the flows. you're not seeing it in peloton. that continues to go lower and lower. it was at 38 today it's been getting bashed along with docusign and others i think we're seeing a healthy
rotation, and that's why the markets -- i've said this all year this healthy rotation has been something that has really been feeding the markets and actually sort of stoking it a little bit and giving us the moves. that's why we've had all those records. i don't know what 2022 looks like necessarily, but i can tell you this with the vix down there as mentioned, down underneath 19 after being up to 35, that says a lot about how quick we were able to assess what's going on, the latest variant, and how that actually does move things around and how people are feeling a heck of a lot more comfortable than they were just a week or so ago. >> we're getting to carter in a second but, tim, i want to go back to you because pete started it. he mentioned peloton you ever see those ugly dog contests where everybody submits their ugliest dog and one of them wins? they're all loved by the way look at robin down, peloton, d docu sign. these were best in show a year ago. now you can't give them away
are there any of these names that got caught up a little too much in this because robinhood, at some point in has to stop going down, or does it >> well, i've been making some noise about robinhood over the last -- call it three weeks where i just believe this is too sticky of a platform the demographic is too much in the target profile of where a lot of other people want to be and, yes, we priced in a lot of bad news around payment for -- we've looked at their crypto volumes in the last quarter and that's part of what destroyed the stock. i look at a peloton. you can take that chart back you're back at april 15 levels, march 2020 to the extent that, yes, you still are probably up 40% over pre-covid levels, really we're assessing this as if this is gopro. this is a hardware company this is not subscription services this is not a company that i think is going to get the kind of multiple. that's what the market's doing
to it. so i think you have very different stories here i think there's been a lot of treatment of one brush here. again, i understand why robinhood has been such a disappointment, but i think you have to be careful to paint all of these stocks with the same brush. >> well, they have been painted. at some point somebody might step inand buy them because they're either going to zero or they're going to stop going down let's move on because with so much sort of moving under the hood of the market -- see what i did there? the big cpi report got us wondering what you can do, all of you out there, to inflation-proof your portfolio let's get to our chart masser, carter worth, who is charting what we might be able to do in this uber inflationary world carter >> well, it does get down to your conversation whether it is peak or whether it's transitory or not the words are all really clever but i guess no one really knows. but there are some traditional places that do do well in moments of inflation
obviously hard assets, commodities, real estate, or companies that can pass on increased prices to the end user in any event, let's look at three etfs i think this as good a place to start as any the first is the staples if you look at all the sectors this week, there's only one or two that are making new 52-week highs and consumer staples is one of them. this is the spyder select xlp and it's the definition of a breakout just cleared highs today now, the next one is the iyrs. this is the ishares u.s. real estate etf that tracks closely the rnz or other aggregates that measure reits. and here too it made a new 52-week high this week that's not the case for financials or industrials. that's not the case for many other areas of the market. finally, commodities you know, there's many ways to
tackle this, but it's the ishares s&p all commodities gsci index. so ticker gsg. you can see there that this one was able to get above its pre-covid level and then cracked hard with the recent sell-off and worries of perhaps new covid strains. but it found that trend line pretty well, and i think this is going to go on and make a new high one final chart, and this is a bit esoteric, but i think it's worth considering. what i've done here is i've taken the xlp, consumers staples etf, and the iyr, and the gsg. so real estate, staples, and commodities, three etfs, and i plotted them equal weight as a single security. and then you're looking at its relative performance line to the equal weight s&p if that's not a bottoming out formation, i don't know what one is it's an interesting develop in
the markets. >> yeah, some interesting names. gsg, iyr carter, thank you. let's trade this around the horn grasso, the iyr, gosh, when is the last time you guys talked about reits on this fine show? it's got a 1.7 dividend yield, not great but not terrible chart looks pretty good. are you a believer are you a buyer of the reits >> i wouldn't necessarily be a buyer of the reits there's a lot of noise involving rates. so i think the cleaner look is to look at the staples or the xlp, which is only up roughly 10% year-to-date the iyr is up 30% year-to-date i would bet on a real smooth chart on the xlp if you go back to infinity and beyond, this ratchet up in the xlp is very smooth, staircase up, slow and steady.
so i made this a would you rather, brian. you're not on the show all the time but i did make it a would you rather, and i would pick xlp. >> there you go. so, pete, we talked about it a little bit on the halftime report today staples, right these boring companies, a lot of which are based in your very exciting state of minnesota. the hormels, the spams of the world, right some of these consumer names, they've been some of the best performers it's bizarre kroger, things like that are you a longer-term buyer or even trader of some of these staple type names or the reeits. >> i absolutely am on the staples, not so much on the reits. on the staples, there are some names that i think have proven themselves, and i think there's still room to the upside for some of these names. i think you brought up an interesting one with kroger, also hormel. when is the last time really talked about that on cnbc? it's pretty rare i do think there are some upside to that particular segment of the markets, and i think there's a lot of different names within
that i've owned some of them. but, you know, that is not the biggest focus that i have, though, brian. i'm still looking and i'm a little bit more of an aggressive trader looking for other types of areas but i do like the staples. i think there are some names that can definitely perform. by the way, with the options side of things, you actually can create even more dividend yield and all the rest of it like you oftentimes are going to get with those names. that's why i like those names so much. >> by the way, the last time we talked about hormel on this network was five hours ago i know because it was me we talked about it dinty more beef stew does not get enough respect by the way. got me through college on deck, we are going to take a page from the late, great, biggie smalls and get that old thing back, and talk about why once left for goners are on fire. later on, believe it or not, there are still companies posting earnings it never ends. here are some of them posting next week.
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all right. welcome back to "fast money. look at that chart things are rocking in the rock city that is detroit of course. shares of ford and gm have been booming lately ford, it had a big move today at more than 6%, or actually almost 10%. now at a 20-year high. the move comes after ceo jim farley said that the company had to cap reservations for its new electric f-150 due to strong demand and their ability to simply not make enough and it's not just the blue oval. call this a renaissance at the renaissance center gm shares above 60 they say they're going to invest big-time in batteries and evs. so let's trade this. nadine terman, are you a buyer, owner, holder, seller of either ford or gm >> if you own the stocks, i think you can hold them. but right now is not the time you go buying after the big moves. ford, for example, it's showing overbought on our trading signals today. the range for that is about
18.50 to 21.04 and, you know, when we see that and there's not a lot of short interest, it doesn't get me excited to enter so maybe wait to 18-50 for gm, obviously great news it's nearing the high end of the trading range, so there's about 6 1/2 downside to 1% upside. i don't like that. it's got implied volatility discounts. it means people took off their protection for me, i'd rather go to something with events like porsche and vw. >> steve, talk about rivian. it's got its first ever earnings a little of the shine has come off. you've loved it from the beginning. you've been holding on to it what are we doing with rivian? >> yeah. so you said earnings they're not going to have earnings, so earnings or lack thereof. >> results. >> exactly what's better? the stock price is indicative of their future potential this one's going to have a major ramp
they're not focused where tesla is focused they're focused -- there was a great report on it today they're focused on commercial vans i'm focused on amazon owning 20% of them. just think about the ramp if amazon decides to take the whole thing, brian think about what commercial is going to mean. think about when they start actually putting pen to paper, if you will. they have software in-house. they have batteries in-house they're not held to the mercy of the supply chain this is one that i'm going to stick with you have to have an iron stomach or steel stomach, whatever the saying is, to be able to hold it i'm holding it i think the better days are to come i think the stock is an easy layup for me. >> easy layup with that amazon factor ford loves it too by the way rivian, their cars, their trucks, they're good-looking they've done a great job the lordstown truck some people have stronger views on. coming up, the trades on
next week's big earnings reports. we are going to go around the horn on these stocks, the ones that actually have earnings. you are watching "fast money" live at the nasdaq marketsite in times square we're back after this. st eps that give me confidence. this is my granddaughter... she's cute like her grandpa. voya doesn't just help me get to retirement they're with me all the way through it. come on, grandpa! later. got grandpa things to do. aw, grandpas are the best! well planned. well invested. well protected. voya. be confident to and through retirement.
what's strong with me? well planned. well invested. well protected. i'm ready for anything. find out what's strong with you with fitbit charge 5 and daily readiness. welcome back we've got some notable names reporting their earnings lennar, adobe, darden. there's no better time for a good old-fashioned game of fade it or trade it pete, kick things off. fedex, trade or fade >> i'm going to fade it, brian the reason is i love the company. i think they do a great job. but when you look at ups versus
fedex, fedex is the way to go -- is not the way to go ups is because they focus on domestic if you look at the performance between these two stocks at any time frame you want to go back and look at, ups has outperformed them. if i'm going to pick a stock in that segment, why wouldn't i pick ups so i'm fading fedex. >> tim, your take? >> everything pete just said is why i want fedex i'm trading it it's one of these stocks that does well on inflation they are passing pricing on. fedex above 260 it starts to run. >> next up is lennar, the home builder. steve grasso, trade or fade lennar >> thuis is a fade i'm afraid of the rising rate environment. usually rising rates don't affect home builders because every home building recovery happened in a rising rate environment. we're coming at it from a different environment right now.
it's a fade for me. >> nadine, what do you think on lennar >> i'm going to trade it i think you've got solid industry backdrop for the next two years. the opportunity for buybacks with their cash flow i think concerns around peak earnings built in. i'd like to get it 108 but i'd hold it if i had it and trade it if it has any weakness next week. >> time for final trade. tim, kick it off. >> thank you for joining us tonight. gm. >> pete? >> academy sports outdoors giddy-up >> nadine? >> i'm going with carter on this one. xlp. >> steve >> this is one that got just obliterated with the whole new variant scare. it's clear secure, you ticker symbol we're not looking at the end of the world. this one will pop. we'll get back to travel
you. >> we like it. everybody, thank you very much all of you have a wonderful weekend, but do not go anywhere. our weekend has not started yet. eamon javers said it hasn't. "options action" is next we'll see you on the short side of this break for the "options action." ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq
it is friday, so that means it is time for "options action." i'm brian sullivan in for melissa lee tonight. here's what we've got coming up as always live here at the nasdaq marketsite in times square >> announcer: health care. when it's top of mind, it should be at the top of your trading radar. tonight, carter worth highlights a new name that you might not have picked up yet on your screen then, health care is just one part of what all consumers need mike khouw looks at how to safely get bullish on all the other bear necessities >>