tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC December 17, 2021 12:00pm-1:01pm EST
maybe they'll make the mechanics work better and shift boeing's entire manufacturing process >> what do you think, julia? we'll hear more like that? yes. this is really about the use of ar and vr, not full metaverse. we will be talking a lot more about the metaverse next week, carl we'll do a deep dive. >> between ge, carnival and pce, have a good weekend. let's get to the half. >> welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner how much selling is left is a santa claus rally still in the cards? we're looking out for your money in the weeks and month ahead debating the best moves you can make for the committee shannon saccocia, the pete naja, co-founder of the market rebellion. what a ride already on this day. the dow is down by more than 500
and cut those losses in half and now it's approaching a 500-point decline yet again and right now 1 1/3% for the dow, s&p is still negative by nearly 1%. the nasdaq had briefly gone positive and that's rolling back over again and russell is hanging in there there's the ten-year note yield at 138 pete najarian, i begin with you. first they were up, now they're down and all around. i have a vix at 21 how do you see things? >> yeah. well, i think, you know, i think the interesting thing about the vix is a lot of people expect it to be much higher, right, scott? the reality is you're down 900 points and why is the vix not spiking and they give you a 1% move on the s&p. that's the measure it's not the dow it's the s&p and that's one of the factors that comes into this thing. we haven't moved 1% in the s&p when you look at that, part of it is the intraday movement and
you look at the vxn which is the nasdaq vix and that immediately pulled back especially when you were talking it went into positive territory for the nasdaq so that's another factor. i'll tell you what's interesting is on top of that, scott, is when you look at volumes, we've got 70 million contracts that are going to be expiring in the options world. that's something to keep track of as we get deeper into this friday on top of that, on monday and tuesday we traded 38 million one day and 35.5 million going into the fed on fed day bang, we just jumped right back up, we're trading and the volumes came back and we saw 43 million trading on thursday and wednesday, rather, 44.5 million yesterday. so we're seeing those volumes come back and the reality is people have to keep track of the volatility index because it's based upon these measurements. these are factual-type measurements and then you have to look at what the intraday is, when you look at the volatility
index even when we get back up at the higher end and that probably makes sense to be a 30 or something like that does not. so we'll have to keep a very close eye on what's going on with the s&p itself and of course, the nasdaq and the nasdaq has been performing far better, obviously today than we've been seeing out of the dow itself because the financials are getting hammered with the ten-year coming down as fast as it has >> there's the vix right there and it's a spike of 7 1/3%, we use the word unsettled to describe the mark. i feel like that's the right word of how it feels it just feels very unsettled so what happens between now and the end of the year? i posed the question at the top how much selling feels like needs to still happen. can a santa claus rally still occur because after you give me that answer i'm going to go through a couple of recent notes and commentary that i just got that not ready to throw in the towel just yet
>> well, i'm not going to say that it can't happen, and i think that unsettled is the right term i think that we went from perhaps a bit uncertain to this unsettled period i think a big part of that is because we are looking at what are investors positioning for? are they positioning for the last couple of weeks of the year i would say that i'm happy you went to pete first to talk about volumes. i think we have one or two more days of volume and then i think it will start to subside and our investors are looking into position at the end of the year and they're starting to look forward to the first quarter of next year and january 2016, for instance when we came out of the gate and had a pretty tough couple of weeks. i believe that what we're seeing today that we're seeing people that were tentatively repositioning ahead of the fed decision, got the fed decision that they were anticipating and are not necessarily scared about the market next year, but perhaps creating a broader cyclical strategy than they had
previously, perhaps adding some additional cyclical risk across the margin and perhaps taking additional gains with the growth stocks ahead of next year. i think the skittishness will persist into 2022. i think we'll see it in january, as well, but i do think that it offers opportunity for repositioning. and so i'm not necessarily going to say that we don't see a santa claus rally and even if we do, i think that some of this unsettled feeling follows us into 2022, and i think it will be pretty active those first few weeks. >> everybody hang tight for two seconds and let me get to taila tausche in washington with important breaking news for us >> scott, we have a new annual report from a group of financial regulators monitoring financial stability and led by treasury secretary janet yellen they're releasing the first annual report, and they have non-bank financial institutions and the lengthy report also goes into detail on market dynamics
at plan. i want to bring you some of those. valuation pressures could cause what they're calling a major repricing of risk. they note high leverage in airline, hospitality, leisure and restaurant sectors they warn of potential distress and default in commercial real estate and warn of a possible hard landing in china, but say the u.s. risk to that would be, quote, manageable. the report briefly mentioned china evergrande, but noted broadly that a slowdown in china's real estate market could trigger spillover effects in global commodity markets where china accounts for half or more than half of steel, copper or iron ore consumption more central clearing of treasurys and better disclosure by family offices to avoid an arc ago situation, and better policy for social media-based trading and volatility earlier
this year in gamestop fell outside of existing policy tools. while climate change continues to be the top priority for this group, senior officials tell me there's not a discussion of stress testing for climate just yet. a lot to chew on i'll send it back to you >> interesting stuff, kayla, i appreciate that breaking news and that's kayla tausche in washington i'll delve into the repricing of risk with the valuation and some of the high-flying stocks. i do want to highlight a note that dropped within the last hour from someone you follow closely and that's michael kolanovic from j.p. morgan jason snipe i'll throw this to you. he said a short squeeze rally is taking everything into consideration. fed policy, this policy change, a more hawkish fed if you want to character a it as that, the omicron variant that's drawing a lot of concern, the sell-off is related to omicron and the fed
while it comes from deshorting from macro and for short-selling campaigns to succeed, there have to be positioning, liquidity and often systematic amplifiers of the sell-off we believe these conditions are not met and hence this market episode may end up in a short squeeze and cyclical rally into year-end and january omicron's mortality rate is very low. this is consistent with omicron being a bullish rather than bearish market development i have a positive thing from ed yardeni, as well he's not ready to give up on the santa claus rally either are you, jason snipe >> obviously, it's been an interesting take this week a lot of volatility and a lot of volume for me, what i do is i'm zooming out and saying, okay, we are pos positioning in it and we're at the end of the year now and looking into 2022.
obviously the fed has made their statement and they're going to increase the tapering time line which they have talked about all year especially the last couple of weeks and we'll reassess from a tightening perspective i think when we think about valuation, high valuation names, long duration assets, cash flows way out in the future,typicall those are the names that get hurt in a rising rate environment and those are names that obviously we need to look at, and i haven't abandoned all of them. there are quite a few that i still do hold and i see secular opportunities with, but i think that's something that we need to pay very close attention to going into 2022, but i do think there's potential opportunity in the markets now that inflation numbers are behind us and we know where the fed stands. >> bryn, just to play off this news that kayla was bringing us and we're showing you the treasury-led group and what
they've said about elevated valuations and the risk. i'm wondering how you're thinking about that at the current time as we always mention, for better or worse you do hold ark fund, right? the innovation fund. that's the epicenter of the selling and that's the epicenter of the concern about risk and elevated valuation how are you thinking about that today relative to the selling that we've already seen and what you think may come on the other side >> just thinking a couple of things on kayla's reporting and i haven't read the report, it seems like you were talking about the broad economy and those risks when they're talking about leveraging airlines, restaurants and hotels >> forgive me for interrupting you. they are talking about elevated valuations and i can't help but think that that has to do with the stocks that i'm asking you about and the risk of the deflation of many of those names
which has happened and continues to occur in many cases >> it's interesting because let's talk about that. and in mark's note, as well, he talks about how the ctas are outright short a lot of those will say ark names. he didn't name ark names in general and he was talking about tech and when they cover, when someone's heavily short and they cover, you get a huge rally and so, you know, i think it's interesting to say i don't know who said it this week and i thought it was great that the soldiers are not following the generals so what that means if you look at the broad industries and just look at the russell 3000, and the average stock is down 28% and the russell 3000 and there's over 20% of the stock, there's 550 stocks in the russell 3000 that are down over 50% so i think that hits right to where you see this massive
derisking. you've seen ark at a high, arkk at 140, maybe 145 and as of this morning it's in the low 90s, but what's interesting if you pull up arkk today, they're having a massive rally. some of the genomics like beam are up over 10%. so i do think if you get a short covering it will not be a short covering in the s&p 500 because no one's short the s&p 500 it's at an all-time high i think if you get a rally, you'll get a rally in the names that are down 50%, 60% as i said before, i'm more prone over the next few months ago adding to that the gdp is going lower and you see that in the bond market right now. a flat yield curve tells you the bond market and tells you that growth is slowing. the conundrum is the fed is trying to find out inflation and so i think it will be a tightrope for them, but if we do have growth actually slowing, that actually plays well into
those higher multiple names that are off, once again, as i said, 50%. >> you're not kidding. i'll go through some of them because it plays into the next part of the narrative that i want to develop. a docusign, for example, is down 52% from its high. cloud flair is 41% these stocks have crashed. let's just call it what it is. groupon is down 60.5% from the 52-week high crowd strike, and others in the investment committee is down 34 and there are other stocks that fall into that boat and twilio is down 44%. this notion that you see these big declines and you say that maybe it's time to do some nibbling on the names that i like best and it brings me to the comments that brad gerstner of altimeter said to me yesterday in our conversation about this very space, how much more time it has to go down and what you should do as an investor here's what he said. >> if you just looked at growth
multiples they were 30% to 40% higher than the five-year trailing average they were about 40% higher than where we were in january 2020 which ithought was a pretty much at a pre-covid level that we would likely retrace back to. >> over the course of the last couple of months we've gotten there even faster than i expected we used that opportunity, some of those pullbacks to buy our favorite names as we head into 2022 >> that was brad gerstner. bryn, i'll toss it back to you they added to snowflake in the near-term here they added to roblox i think you own roblox >> yeah. >> to the point that you're making, are you doing the same thing that gerstner's doing? >> no. no i own roblox and owned it in the 70s and what i am doing in a name like roblox is i've been selling calls. when roblox was in the 120s i
sold calls in that position because there was a ton of premium. that's a strategy that investors can take advantage of in this volatility is to sell calls. my position in roblox i'm right sized, but i want to take advantage. i do think, though, these names have had so much damage and history doesn't repeat itself, but it definitely rhymes if you go back to 2000, to 2002, it goes down roughly 80% and don't forget, the nasdaq is down 29 the soldiers aren't following the generals so do those stocks stay down or do the soldiers start following the generals so i'm not going to add to an ark unless i get a few months later. i want to see what happens in inflation and i want to see what happens in the economy and next year it presents itself with a host of risks that the fed hasn't done a change in monetary policy, and so you need to act
accordingly. i'm not in a hurry to add to the position and i'll wait and take a position when i feel like there's a better visibility on my opinion on how these stocks will be priced by the market >> i want to just throw it out there. i asked gerstner whether he still owned it and he surprised me by saying that it didn't. yes, it's getting a nice pop today, but it's at $41 and the 52-week high is 171. there are some stocks in these baskets that may never recover they may, they may not we just don't know i'm not putting twilio off its 52-week high in that banket and a sales force off the bear market territory in that basket, either and it's an impetus to ask jason snipe about those names because you own both and they're the high beta names and the stocks are not all created equal.
twilio, for example, they're down 22% year to date. i love the communication platform i think there are some secular tailwinds there. it's an expensive stock trading at 19 times sales, but i agree with bryn. i'm not going to add to this name and some of these names here, but i do think for me, they're an absolute hold and on the side of crm, another great software name, not quite as expensive as twilio, but they from a software perspective and where they are, again, it's been -- it was a strong report and six consecutive quarters and 20% plus revenue growth, there's a lot of opportunity and they're in it for the long term. it's a hold for me here and i wonder how things progress and how the early part of next year rolls out to kind of see what we do >> the other risk beyond omicron is a more aggressive fed than some are anticipating in whatever the market continues to
price in and what it thinks will happen in the near-term. let's bring in our senior economi economics reporter steve liesman and you were talking about the market cautiously and you used that word so i'm going to use it, too, pricing in a march rate hike which is, you know, earlier than people are expecting. >> yeah, and i was sort of surprised that that did not take more hold on wednesday, scott. when i heard what powell said when i read the statement, i thought for sure march was -- i don't know, a 50% probability and it stayed in the 30%, 40% probability. i say cautiously, we're not quite at 5% which is the number that says hey, more than half want it, but look at the march number of 47% and 37% this week where it was down there and it was priced pretty well and then you start to get into an earlier possibility.
the idea of a second hike in july, these things move around a let and they're very interesting, on the day that the two yields and other yields are down and they move sympathetically with them and they have a kind of a mind of their own today, scott and what's happening is the idea that the fed could end the qe purchases in march and start hiking right away is certainly a risk i don't know for sure if it's going to happen, as you talk to john lynch it depends on the data, but it's out there with a potential risk. >> it's good that you use the word risk because that's sort of what it's going to be, right the market is not going to take that kindly. it's a downside risk for stocks. i want you to stay with me i want to know what a wealth manager thinks about what you're talking about, what the panel has talked about let's bring in chris toomey of private wealth management.
welcome back it's good to see you today >> thank you happy holidays. >> you, as well. what sort of a risk right now do you feel is it omicron or is it a more aggressive fed, the likes of which could be more aggressive than some are thinking based on what mr. liesman just showed us with his graph >> no, i don't think it has to be one or the other. i think it has to be both. to pete's earlier point and the channel checks that we've seen, we're seeing systematic trading on the downside and repositioning from both systematic and discretionary managers so you've got that pressure plus tax loss selling, plus omicron and then the probably bigger piece of this which is going to be the longer term piece is what steve was talking about focusing in on issues around the fed. a 50% chance of having three rate hikes now and next year
will have a dramatic impact with regard to valuation and pricing. so you know, i think that's something that the market's digesting and to build off of one of bryn's points, you know, i think everyone is looking at the market for year end and the return looks relatively good and if you dig deeper down the average stock in the s&p 500 is down 13% from the high the average stock is almost 50% of the independennasdaq's 20% f high and the russell is down 35% and that's not taking into account this week's volatile period and i think that speaks specifically to the market dynamics we talked about this the last time i was here and that's the s&p 500. four stocks account for a third of the return and over the last six months it's been around 70%. the concern is the market's looking forward and they're looking at valuations and they're saying we've got stretch
and they're forward thinking and they responded to powell's pivot and his language for the last three or six months and they've been taking these high valuation stocks down and it's what steve was alluding to with what's going on in the treasury market. if you look at mega-cap tech which is driving the majority of the returns of these indexes you look at the earnings risk premium. right now it's at 3.5% historically it's been around 3% if you go back farther it's around 2%. so you could make the argument looking at big tech versus treasurys that they still look relatively cheap >> steve, you know, i guess you can respond to that, but i'm also curious as to how you think powell and company are thinking about the valuations of the
market and i guess they're happy if you want to use that word that it's deflating a little bit in an area of perceived excess and froth. >> that's a great question, scott. i want it applaud the person who wrote that down, fed versus -- >> it was the team not me >> it was the team, scott, and that's the key right there is that omicron >> there's no i in team, steve >> thanks for that omicron is pressing down on yields and maybe pressing down on the market while the fed because inflation needs to move the other way. i think it's a risk out there that the fed has to move and move more quickly and do more next year. it's a big part of what's out there and when it comes to valuations, remember here. what the fed wants to happen, i
don't think they want to see anything crater at all they don't want to see the stocks crater. they don't want to see a temper tantrum and they've had some success in avoiding that, but the express contempt of fed policy especially fed jawboning policy is to tighten financial conditions and if you don't mind bringing up that chart which is what happened to yields since the fed meeting. yields have gone down and financial conditions have gotten looser and if you look across the spectrum six basis points on the 210 and the five-year since the fed pivot at 11:30, they haven't moved all that much and you haven't had a lot of tightening. if the market doesn't do the fed's beating, which is the same as saying the beatings will improve. >> to steve's points, you have rates moving lower
you still have liquidity aplenty, despite that everyone is losing their mind next and you have still, more positive than sentiment and commentary around o mick run, right are those three things the principle reasons why you continue it invest as i believe you do, to buy the kip i think the positives are still there. we are expecting u.s. gdp to grow at 4.7% and it's about 50 basis points above consensus and earnings will continue to be strong the consumer is in great shape we're expecting continuations with regard to capex and earnings are very strong our big concern is valuation, and i think the other concern is more technical and earnings are
coming down ask it's still above trend and we're seeing a situation where comps in q1 will be very tough. if you remember last year we had the trump stimulus followed by the biden stimulus we don't have that, and we also had some very positive news around the vaccines and right now we're seeing issues around omicron. that being said, you know, i think from a comparison standpoint we're seeing equities versus treasurys what are we talking about? we're talking about the fed raising rates from 0 to 1% how much of that will be affecting the discounting for blue chip companies? there's plenty of opportunity with regards to buying the dip so you need to be patient. you need to be thoughtful and i think brad's recommendation with regard to some of the stocks that were taken out of the wood shed i don't think you'll necessarily be buying them in the blanket
fashion that you might have done in 2020 and there are market companies that are trading at a discount that if you have a longer term investment horizon and you're willing to deal with some of this volatility is great. i think bryn's point also about taking advantage of this expected volatility here makes sense when it comes to writing covered calls. it's one thing to look at the vix and looking at the names and it should be proud for the people >> good stuff. i appreciate your perspective. happy holidays to you and your family that's chris toomey, joining us today. >> steve liesman p thanks for joining us as well gang, sit tight. rivian is a public company if you own the stock, should you get out now? should you buy more? what does pete najarian think about that we'll ask him about it next.
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with rising infections tonight at 7:00 eastern. new jersey reporting new covid cases at levels not seen in 11 months the daily cases are up 40% over the last week. nearly one in eight covid tests are coming back positive hospitalizations are also at an eight-month high after rising 14% in a week. trump adviser roger stone refusing to answer questions from the congressional panel investigating the january 6th riot on capitol hill stone appeared before the committee in response to a congressional subpoena, but invoked his constitutional protection against self-incrimination in the philippines, 12 people have died after a major typhoon slammed into the country. more than 1200 people have been displaced. disaster funds have been depleted by the covid pandemic you are up-to-date scott >> i appreciate it that's rahel solomon the cnbc investing club with jim
cramer, they're buying boeing. it increases the weighting in his portfolio from 2.34% to about 2.56 he says they see a, quote, dislocation in value at these levels you know, pete, i don't think you own boeing correct me if i'm wrong, but it just makes me think about that statement. we see a dislocation in value at these levels and what stocks you may see in that same vein. >> you know, when you guys are talking earlier about the names absolutely getting hammered in the down side and the high multiple names and i think a couple do stand out for me, scott. there are names that absolutely the reason they went to where they went was because of the start of the pandemic and over time, they have not been able to keep up and they probably can't get anywhere close to that same growth rate when we come out of this pandemic, vecht ally and we have obviously been progressing for the last year or so into the
two-year deal. so i think there are names like a docusign, for instance, like a zoom where i understand that that was partially the reason why they spiked the way that they did, but i think some of these stocks are here to stay. i think zoom is one of those i think docusign is one of those and you have to be specific on how you analyze what stocks have a chance and i look at something like a peloton which i've been critical of and i don't want to be so negative on it, but i do think that was all driven by everybody being at home. you and i talked about this multiple times early when we got into the pandemic and we talked about peloton and about the idea that hey, look, people want to be social. so there is something to that side of it so people go back to gyms the pelotons do become those very expensive clothes hangers and by the way, when you look at peloton, one of the other issue on top of everything is their cash burn. their cash burn is there high multiple and you have the different variables. i think there are names that i think will stay under pressure
and there are multiple names out there that you can dip your toe into, at least at this time lik a zoom or a docusign and those are the names on my list >> you're just looking at them and they're not doing options play or are you? >> i have been in those and i've not been in there other than with options and zoom is the one that i would be attracted to most i've been attracted to most because i do think that's going to stick over time especially when you talk to ceos and you talk about all of the flights across the country and everything else. they'll still be doing that some day, but they won't probably be doing it at the rate they did in the past and because of that, i think this is one of those names that could be beneficial going forward. >> we'll talk about another name that you're associated with and that's rivian. the ev maker expects to fall a few hundred vehicles short of the 2021 production target the cnbc auto reporter phil lebeau joins the committee this is ugly today, phil
>> it is ugly and not a surprise, scott. if you look at the analyst notes and if you listened to the call last night this was not one of those oh, my goodness, where did this come from, never saw this coming and look, this is a company starting from scratch and building up production and it's building at the same time. i think this is a sell-off here if you want to call it a sell-off, down 12% and that's not a huge surprise and i don't think it changes the outlook in terms of long term what people think the potential is for rivian >> you know, pete, while we still have phil. i note that you sold your rivian stock. now we had your brother on yesterday who was out of his calls and remember, i'd said he bought those in the open market. you had an allocation on the ipo. why now sell the stock
>> sure. i was very fortunate because i did get an allocation from the ipo. so when you go back and that price is at 78 bucks that feels pretty good. that gave me room to be able to trade this stock i've always been of the idea that this is a trade, this is not an investment and you look at the multiples and phil will tell you a lot of the positives and they'll probably have to raise cash again as they're trying to build out some of these facilities and that's fine that's something we've seen in the past and we've seen tesla and others do that and what bothers me for me from my perspective and this goes back to what bryn was talking about about implied volatility, scott and i was telling you, as soon as they bring on options, i'll be selling at the money calls in this position. that's exactly what i've been doing and i'll continue to do that here's one problem and we started off with implied volatilities and how much premium was in those options and it was as high as 250.
right now, very similar to tesla, the volatility has been coming down despite the fact that the stock is coming down and it's up to mid-90s and you look at the implied volatility and it's trading very close to 100 and i'm not getting the risk reward and before that i was getting double what people were getting now. i like what i did, i like the position and i liked all of the premium that i was able to take out of this stock and i'm not getting the types of premium i was getting before >> it's still the one, but there's more ramp risk and supply's an issue. >> sure. what about what pete just said about the balance sheet needing more cash? do you know enough about that situation that you can opine on that >> i know enough to know that they don't need it immediately if they committed $5 billion to build a second plant east of atlanta for production, and it won't be open until 2024 and do
i think that by 2024 there will likely be another capital raise of some sort probably because they'll have to increase their production again. i mean, they have big plans for the future i think the most interesting story here, scott and what rivian is an early indicator that people should keep in mind, you have an industry where you have so many automakers whether start ups like rivian or established automakers who have said we're building x number of electric vehicles over the next five years or seven years or however long there's not a bad battery capacity there, you know what? i'm not sure there will be that battery capacity for some time that is the big scramble that's going on right now, and that's going to ultimately make people say okay let's dial back our expect ailgs and not just for rivian and other companies in terms of how quickly they'll be able to ramp up production of evs >> phil, the best. rolls with everything. thank you. that's phil lebeau joining us from chicago
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johnson & johnson. you sold it. is that because of the vaccine news >> technically, no we sold it last thursday. >> okay. the reason we sold j&j, was the upcoming transition into two companies and we feel like until that occurs, we're going to see some overhang on the stock and we're going to wait and see on that so we moved out of the position. >> okay, but you did buy agilent tech can you tell us why, leplease >> we did. so agilent provides supplies and devices to labs and we think that one of the ways to play growth over the next couple of years will be in the biopharma space, we are already expecting to see significant growth in those markets. 60% of the company's revenue is occurring so it offers you an opportunity to be leveraged to this rather binary and fast-growing part of the health care sector, but in a way that's a bit more conservative.
>> hey, pete, real quick before we go to break did i see you bought microsoft calls in some fresh ones >> you did and that was based upon some of the unusual that we were seeing there scott, the stock has been all over the place, up and down, and when we saw unusual option activity there and i still think that this is one of those names it will be up or down 3% or 4% on a daily basis right now at least this week, and generally the direction is higher. >> we have more trades ahead pete has unusual activity and we'll do that after this quick break. don't go anywhere. the dow is down 421. ♪ ♪
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i'd rather have an individual name rather than etf they're looking for energy despite to the upside and it's been plateauing for a while. ever since late october it's been somewhere within the range. the other is an end that we don't talk about very often and this is a south korean e-commerce play. it was trading at 28 1/2 dollars. they bought next friday's 29 calls. they paid about 60cents for these calls. that got me inspired i haven't seen this stock in a long time and near the end, and i thought maybe this thing has a little bit of a shot and i like the commitment of this size of a trade. i like this one, as well. >> good stuff. pete, thank you very much. up next, the committee will take questions at ask halftime and we're back in two minutes.
now for "ask halftime. in denver writes which growth stock or etf should i buy in my 11-year-old daughter's custodial brokerage account? she loves to watch your show and we trade we love that jason, you first >> it is a great question. for me i like microsoft as a long-term hold as we continue to move through the technological revolution, you know, where they sit in cloud, ai and software, really like microsoft as a growth name here until long-term validates it
>> what you, bryn? >> first, thanks for watching the show it is great to have young investors. i'm going to give you three because you need to learn about portfolio construction and diversification. i would buy qual, which is a high-quality u.s. large cap, diversified portfolio. i would buy bitw, which is wit wise's top ten wise's crypto etf. i would buy irkk as a long-term investor it is a great way to get really good companies but it is volatile >> there you go, bryn. i knew you would do it bring it full circle all right. we will take a quick bakre we will come back and do final trades next. earn about covid-19,
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all right. let's talk about estee lauder. there it is, down about 4.5% today. we are talking about it however because it was named a top 2022 pick at jpmorgan the other reason we bring it up is because, shannon, you own it. $379 is the price target it does come a day after jim cramer's charitable trust exited the entire position. what do you think about that >> well, i don't -- i love jim but i disagree with the move i think there's going to be an overhang on this stock over the next couple of months. a thir of their sales are in emerging markets and they benefit from being in stores so foot traffic whether through duty-free or in a department store, but if you think about prestige beauty they're number one or number two in all of the markets where they participate so i think from a competitive perspective we are going to continue to see prestige beauty spend increase over the next ten
years, and they are going to be the primary beneficiary from that >> all right i also note today that proctor & gamble, another stock shannon owns, is at a 52-week high jason snipe gets this one because he owns it, too. >> yeah. so obviously p & g benefited from market sentiment. i mean it is up a little over 11% over the last month, 3% this week you know, margin pressures, gross margins are down 370 basis points year over year. so i think they will work through supply chain but obviously like the move and it has been a long-term hold for us in our dividend portfolio >> all right pete, coca-cola i think i saw is a 52-week high as well >> yes, this has been a long-time hold for me, scott i'm not somebody who has just coke and not pepsi, i own both in terms of stocks i tell you what, the conservative nature of what the company does plus the fact over the time all of the acquisitions they've made away from
carbonated beverages, i think it fits in. quite honestly, people are looking for something conservative 22 p/e, they have growth i think it is a great stock that will continue to go higher >> all right let's do "final trades" if we could. shannon, what do you got >> mlm so infrastructure trade, aggregates as well as cement construction in texas. they are certainly going to benefit from infrastructure, which we have already seen in the stock, but there's still some opportunity here to add >> all right good stuff bryn >> yeah, lit, the global x lithium and battery etf. you don't need to buy companies that aren't really producing cars to take advantage of the ev you can actually buy the components inside of l.i.t.. >> jason snipe >> palo alto a lot of growth in the cybersecurity space. you know, they've done a lot of spending this year that i think is behind them, that's preparing them for future growth i like this name stay long. >> good stuff. thank you. pete najarian. >> i'm going to go with sofi
great game last night played out of that stadium. >> oh, yeah. >> i think it is a stock going higher it was a great game, right it was outstanding it was i tell you what, i like the fact we've seen a lot of option activity of late in the stock. i think it goes higher >> going for it like five times on fourth down that was interesting i like the move. thank you. "the exchange" begins now ♪ scott, i like any stock with a ticker symbol l.i.t., lit. i'm tyler mathison welcome to it is i'm in for kelly evans this day. here is what is ahead. the worry trade between inflation and covid. the market's dealing with a lot of moving pieces today the vix higher we look at why ai, big data and cyber could be good best right now. plus the safety trade. staples having a great month and they're well positioned to ride out inflation, but not all of them are created equal explore that, the names that could see the biggest gains from here and the semi trade, testing the waters and mor