tv The Exchange CNBC December 27, 2021 1:00pm-2:00pm EST
shannon? >> unite >> joe >> cisco >> pete. >> amd all right. good stuff, everybody. again, dow, highs of the day, 232. new intraday high for the s&p 500. that does it for "the half." "the exchange" begins right now. thank you, scott yes, it does i'm brian sullivan in for kelly today. here is what is ahead. omicron concerns not on wall street investors shrugging off a spike in cases with the s&p 500 sitting at another record today. holiday retail sales surging we will dig into that and some of the names you may want to buy, but not everybody is so cavalier demand for at-home covid tests still soaring. they're hard to find, and the question is do they even work well against omicron here for an interview you have to say
2021's top tech. whole food's delivery disaster more rough seas ahead for the cruise lines all of that and more coming up in today's edition of rapid fire we begin with the markets, let's get to kristina partsinevelos for the trades hello. >> what monday blues, right. it is pushing deeper into record territory. the board continues to be green following last week's rally after a shortened trading week, but keeping on with the historical trend i will not use the cliche right now, pushing toward the end-of-year rally which is typically over the last five trading days of december and the first two trading days of january. since 1928, the s&p 500 has been positive 78.5% of the time with many on holidays right now, hopefully watching cnbc, liquidity is relatively low but sectors moving higher. information technology followed by energy and materials leading
the pack right now, all above 1% the semiconductors i want to focus on right now, soxx hitting an all-time high since its inception in 2001. teradyne is up almost over 3%. broadcom is up over 1%, and the list continues oil though, and these are all all-time highs oil up on the hopes omicron will have a limited impact on global demand heading into next year, even, if you are unfortunately one of those people dealing with the 1,300 cancelled flights across the board devon energy, diamondback and marathon seeing swings up. apa corp. is up almost 6%. because it is the holidays and we are shopping online, i wanted to look at cybersecurity, which is outperforming today accenture among the large cap constituents of -- we will bring up the cibr etf hitting all-time highs and cisco trading at the
highest level since september 2000 back to you. >> a lot of people that missed the flights, you know what they're going to do? they're going to rent a car and drive to grandma's house or back home, so fuel demand may tai sigh thank you. >> thank you as christina told you, there's no hum-bug on wall street today stocks are being bought. all of the major averages are higher, but the end of the year is a time for reflection and planning so where should you plan to invest next year joining us is simeon hyman, global investment strategist at pro shares good to have you on. a lot of people are probably sitting at home looking at finances thinking, what do i do next year. my question to you is this, what should they do next year >> well, you have to hate stocks less than you hate bonds in this environment and that's not the most ringing endorsement but the math is simple rates are really low, even with this -- and i will say the word, santa claus rally.
we are trading about 22 times 2021 earnings. that's consistent historically with a 2% ten-year and we're not even at 1.5% so stocks are fairly valued. if you look back at earnings season, q3 earnings were up 40% year over year, and that wasn't even such a bad comp going back to 2019, it is almost a 35% increase so, you know, we're in a decent place for equities, they're not defenseless, they can grow earnings and dividends but the fixed coupons are totally exposed. this is not a regular tightening we are about to experience from the fed. it is going to start with tapering, and that should allow some level of normalization. normalization means rise in those longer-term interest rates, putting much more of a damper on bonds and perhaps not that much of a headwind for stocks >> it is an important point you are making, simeon we expect nothing less, by the way. for the newbies out there, there
are two "t"s and sometimes you hear about the taper and sometimes the tightening they're different things the tightening actually raising interest rates, which is very different. here is the question we know we will get the taper, it is happening. we are likely to get a tightening, at least based on what they've said and everybody's projections. 1994, the dow, it was 250 basis points, 2.5% of tightening and the dow surged in 1995 if we get higher rates, simeon, can the overall market do what it did 20-some years ago and still move >> it is all about earnings, growth i think what some folks get wrong is they try to completely equate the equity markets to the bond market and look for shorter duration stuff, meaning the stuff where the earnings and the dividends are really front loaded but that's not that much of a defense historically the wrong place to look in the equities are places where, you know, you have very high dividend yields, and not that much growth because it is growth
that allows the equity market to persevere in the face of some rising rates so i think as long as you are looking to where the growth is and not trying to sort of engineer a short-duration equity equivalent, you have a really good place to be in the equity markets, even in the phase of rising short-term rates driven by the fed >> okay. so there's our macro convo let's help our viewers and listeners, simeon, make money with individual names next year. a lot of people out there, we talk about infrastructure, home renovations. they're going to be not only buying a new couch but maybe things like new home infrastructure, water heaters, et cetera. a name like a.o. smith, one you like >> sure. you know, we are big fans of dividend growth at pro shares. folks know the aristocrats and novl, the etf. a.o. smith exemplifies watt means to be a company that consistently grows its dividend. it has grown it for 28 straight
years, 17% compounded growth in the last five. that's your protection from inflation. now, you missed a little bit they did have a pop on their last earnings release, but that has not erased over five years of underperformance in the face of the large cap tech run. if you want a vauks point, you are looking at the same enterprise value to ebitda value to multiple as the s&p 500, but three times to four times the return on assets so it makes sense. >> a smart name, thomas tall, owner of the steelers, he backed a company called figs, trying to change the game in medical gowns, ppe and medical equipment. stock has been rough, but you say buy on the weakness? >> there's a back story, which, of course, is the online back story. if you look at the weak restale sales number from last month people were nervous about, it was still a strong number for online retail. in online retail, just like
brick and mortar two generations ago, there will be niche players who thrive along amazon. you have several like etsy and chewy. for those who don't know who they are, they make medical scrubs 85% of individuals buy their own scrubs it is a category killer. its underperformance since its ipo was punctuated by the cfo who retired a couple of weeks ago, baugh real opportunity to be invested in a category killer, particularly after a period where the brick and mortar rebound probably went too far. >> a.o. smith and figs, two new names on the smaller cap side. simeon hyman, appreciate it. have a happy new year. >> thank you >> talk to the on the other side take care. for ideas where to put your money, catch our cnbc special "your money 2022." that's tonight at 6:00 p.m. eastern for all of wall street's top picks heading into next year
you cannot afford to miss that to a news alert in the bond market two-year notes are up for auction. one of the final, maybe the final of the year. rick santelli is at the cme. rick, merry christmas, happy new year, all of that stuff. is it going to be a happy new year for the bond auction? >> well, you know what it is a very good two-year note auction compared to the last six years. this particular auction, 56 billion two-year notes the yield at the dutch auction, .769, so a whisker under .77% it was trading.76. the distance where it was trading and how far back they have to put the bids and offers to fill the entire order, that's called a tail when it moves in the wrong direction. this tail almost a full basis point. why am i bringing all of this up because the last six years the two-year note is notorious for leaving big tails, much bigger than this one basis point tail actually i still gave it a "c."
took off for the tailing there was another big, bright spot and i will get to it in a minute 2.55 is the bid to cover, higher than the ten auction average 61.4 indirect. this is foreign participation. that's 61.4, the highest percentage of indirect bidders going back to june of '09. there's your highlight there if it wasn't for the tailing, it probably would have had a better score. tomorrow we will have fives followed by sevens to complete all of the supply, and none of it goes particularly well in december so, of course, we will keep everybody apprised, brian. think about it this way. the two-year note closed last year at .12, which means it is up almost 60 basis points for the year thus far, which makes sense because the market's looking ahead to what the fed may do with rates in 2022. >> but, rick, here is the thing. if we did this last year at this time -- by the way, we probably did but it felt like five years
ago. almost anybody of the smart money set that we would have asked, where's the ten-year note going to end the year, they probably would have said 2%, above 2% or around 2%. we are under 1.5%. what did everybody get wrong where did all of the experts, with the exception of a couple of guys like scott minerd and cumuard, where did they blow it? >> i'm not sure they blew it. when you have central banks putting interest rates on where the interest rates need to be. it isn't a debate whether they did right or wrong thing or their presence to try to combat the effects on the economy of covid should have been done or not have been done, it is just a fact many thought the yields would be higher because logic dictates they should be higher but the risk/reward parameters get this started when central banks, of course, keep printing
and quantitative easing means they issue debt, they buy it back, they put it in the corral. what's the corral? reverse repo market. basically at $1.6 trillion is in a parking lot waiting for some future use when that future use becomes more obvious to the rest of us, that's when they're going to be right, brian, and rates will go up >> but that win is the real question because, like to your point, they're sitting there like lost bags at newark airport right now, rick, waiting for somebody to find a use rick, best to you, my friend thank you very much. talk to you soon we have a long way to go here on "the exchange. on deck is 2022 going to be the year oil booms or collapses? as ev sales take over, dan pickering is here. as we head to break, take a look at the dow heat map looking pretty solid you have microsoft, cisco leading the way. boeing, the biggest laggard even as everybody is flying or trying to fly these days. we're hoping you are having a
great day wherever you may be. we are back on cnbc right after this this is it is on cnbc. your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire you could spend half an hour
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despite concerns about demand and the coming release of oil from the emergency reserves, crude oil prices are $10 higher than three weeks ago, which means gasoline prices are going to move higher as well maybe not the news the white house wants to hear. oil back above $75 a barrel. your next guest says oil prices are likely to move higher in the next year. joining us now, dan pickering, chief investment officer at pickering energy partners. dan, welcome here is where i think people get the oil story wrong. there is a big difference between demand going down, which is what a lot of people think, and demand growth slowing, which is where the projections are that means demand is still growing, just at a slower pace is that where you think some of the oil bears are getting it wrong? >> i think the bears are a little worried about longer term issues like energy transition. they're worried about the economy. they're worried about, you know, the build back better not
passing. what they're missing is that we've got this pent-up demand and energy transition is a long way away so the demand side looks like it is improving and the supply side's balanced. so i think we have seen oil hold at 65 a couple of times now, and so i think we have a good floor. the question is what's the ceiling going to be. >> you know, i think also what the bears miss is that it is a little bit myopic. they forget there's a whole world out there, dan, that wants a taste of what we've had in america the last 30 or 40 years, which is clean, renewable -- not renewable, but reliable and fairly inexpensive hydro carbons. we can all transition in america to evs if we can afford it people in emerging markets like india, nigeria, parts of china, they can't it is a big world out there. the global demand side is i think the side that people tend to miss the most >> without a doubt what you are seeing with the situation in europe is that a
quick move to renewables makes things less reliable, a lot more volatile, and ultimately for them right now more expensive, and the developing world can't handle more expensive. they want cheap and available. so we think that the outlook on the demand side continues to look more robust into the next five to ten years, and this energy transition will take decades, not quarters or years so, you know, in the meantime we need fossil fuels and we're going to use them. >> do you think we are going to see increased production in the united states? i know the permian has held up pretty well. the rest of the country, more higher costs, they have not. the big majors, they're sitting on their cash. they're giving it back to investors, higher dividends, buy backs, et cetera will u.s. production increase next year? >> u.s. production up, but not much and, remember, our peak was 13 million barrels a day. we are down around 11.
i definitely take the under on getting back to 13 barrels a day any time soon. the u.s. companies for the most part giving cash back to shareholders like you mentioned rather than drilling, and so i think we will see production up but not dramatically certainly not enough to spoil the party in '22 >> and, you know, opec which we talk about all the time, and i still miss the in-person meetings, but what they've done under the leadership is they've kind of turned opec into the fed. instead of having just a periodic couple of meetings a year, it is now kind of a monthly thing. mostly they will have a press conference they've kind of federal reserved-up opec there's been no indication that they're going to waiver from adding 400,000 new barrels a day, which by the way they probably don't even have the capacity to do that across their entire contract. do you think opec is going to hold the line steady next year as well then
>> i think opec is going to do a good job of managing the market. they've done a good job for the past year. i think that they're walking a tight rope of adding supply and having a good price versus price being too high and hurting their consumers. you saw the u.s. government and a number of others push back against high gasoline prices, and so i think opec manages the market well in '22 they will bring more oil back. they are ready in case they need to to pull supply back or reduce supply, so i think that they are -- they are the fed and they're doing a pretty good job right now. >> they are the federal reserve of oil i know there's been a lot of projections, dan, about 100 oil. hard to see though, because once you get to that level then you start to get geopolitical problems, you get -- even the greediest producers start to throw more stuff on the market 80, 85 seems like kind of a sweet spot, does it not?
>> that's our number we saw the pain point in the consuming nations right around 85 a few months ago. $100 oil hurts demand on the margin, and, you know, i don't think opec wants to encourage alternatives generally so 65, 85 feels like the right range. 65, protection on the downside 85, opec probably brings oil back to market so for '22 that's how i see it 65/85. 100 would be a wild card scenario. >> to your point, probably a demand killer if it stayed there, if it stayed there for more than a brief period of time thanks very much, dan pickering. see you on the other side. take care. up next, we will go from texas tea to the top tech and layout what surprise names rocked the year. plus, no loyalty here. why whole foods customers are bailing because of $10 that's on rapid fire and it wasn't merry
♪ all right, everybody welcome back to "the exchange. the markets right now, they're having a little post-christmas santa claus rally. we are seeing the s&p 500 up more than 1% that, my friends, means it is yet another record high. if we close at a record high, if you are counting at home, it will be the 69th record closing high for the s&p 500 this year only one, two, three, four, eight off the all-timerecord let's get a check on some of the sectors. you have health care, you have
tech, you have real estate, all on pace for record closes as well in fact, technology is up 1.75%. it was hot all year. it is hot again. now, it is not just them there's other ones out there as well we like to eat domino's, mcdonald's, yum brands, they're all hitting all-time highs today as well in fact, domino's, the biggest outperformer of this group this year it is up 44% on the flip side of that, casino stocks big guys, among the biggest laggards in the s&p, some of the few stocks in the red today. they're falling on concerns over, you guessed it, travel, the omicron variant, potential china lockdowns. you have penn national, wynn resorts, las vegas sands, all lower today, all down between 20% and 40% this year and off 1.5% to 2% each today. it has also been a december to forget. for many of the second-hand sellers and direct-to-consumer names with every name here set
to post steep declines like thredup, stitch fix and rent the runway they're a little higher while the real real and posh mark are in the red it has been a tough run for the group. to kristina partsinevelos for a cnbc news update christina. >> thank you, brian. here is what is happening at this hour. president biden says he is opening to shortening quarantine times for people who test positive for covid biden is pledging full support for the federal government for states facing surges in new covid cases. $100 incentives to get booster shots are get inpeople to roll up their sleeves that's according to new york city mayor bill de blasio. he says 180,000 people have taken advantage of the program since last week. m meanwhile, new york governor kathy hochul says elective surgeries are suspended at hospitals due to limited capacity with rising covid patients on the news, testing lines remain long in parts of the country. what health officials are doing
to meet demand, tonight at 7:00 eastern. russia says it will hold security talks with the united states next month. this amid increasing tensions in ukraine. foreign minister lavrov says the talks will begin after russia's new year's holidays ending on january 10th back to you. >> thank you very much spidey's record-breaking web looking less than smooth sailing for the cruise lines the tech names to buy next year. it is all ahead in today's rapid fire that is next you're a one-man stitchwork master. but your staffing plan needs to go up a size.
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2021's tech winners. it has been a volatile year for many tech stocks with the threat of rising rates looming large over the past couple of months beating up some of the most beloved software names, but fintech cloud and cybersecurity and especially semiconductors saw big winners, with up start fortinet and nvidia, the biggest gainers of the year delano, let's start with you >> thanks for having me. i think a lot of these have the potential to perform well next year but with rising rates, i want to stick with the businesses that have the high-margin businesses spitting out cash flow i like nvidia here we know that the semiconductor demand will be in place for 2022, even with congestion and supply constraints but the demand will be there if you are looking at the data center, you are looking at the gaming chips unit which is a
strong unit. one area to look at obviously is very, very pricey as far as price means, but you want to look at it from the standpoint of some of the potential of the small bets they're making, talking about the metaverse licensing potential on that side i like nvidia there, brian >> michael santoli, looking at what you look at, talking to the people you talk to as well, is anybody talking up big tech next year >> i don't think it is the consensus for a leadership group, brian, which maybe is a net positive one thing i would, you know, remind people, i was looking at this the other day, the semiconductor index has doubled performance on the s&p 500 on a one, three and five and ten-year basis, of. the danger was overthinking it, thinking the world was becoming more siliconized the average s&p tech stock has done well, but the cloud computing etf is actually down on the year. i think you actually had a
little bit of uncertainty run through some of the overheated areas of the tech masrket i'm not sure how it sets up for 2022 >> topic number two is the cruise lines at least today taking another hit. you have norwegian, royal caribbean, carnival, all lower today. scuttling potentially the end of some vacations at least four ships have been turned away from ports of call or prohibited from letting passengers off due to, you guessed it, more cases on board. despite the cruise stocks doing okay recently. the big three up double digits this month i know some people in my family, seema, that booked a cruise in april. they didn't pay a lot for it, apparently it is like 50% capacity so asking for a friend, how is cruise line demand looking right now? you talked to all of the ceos. >> well, we just heard from carnival last week, brian. the expectation is that second half bookings and going into 2023 demand is very strong
but we still need more clarity on what the situation is right now. ceo arnold donald telling cnbc they're only seeing a small spike in cans lakes. does it start to see if we start to see more variants this has not been an easy pandemic for the cruise lines to navigate, and the stocks really move on covid headlines. in fact, here is a question to you, brian >> uh-oh >> name any other sector more reactive to covid news than the cruise lines last week there was more encouraging headlines around the pfizer and merck drugs getting approval that sent the stock up today it of the sentiment changed and you see where it is trading today. longer-term success really hinges on next year and the cruise lines returning to profitability. we are eyeing sort of the second half of next year for those targets. >> and i can't answer your question, seema. i don't know of another group as volatile mike santoli, that goes to the trade. if i was an al goe rhythmical trader, you put an algo in
every time you any them, you start to sell them you buy certain other stocks this has become like a dumb pattern at this point. >> right and it kind of works until it doesn't. there's absolutely very much a headline sensitivity to that group. it really has been mostly a proxy for, you know, the outlook for reopening type activities over the next six to eight weeks. i think longer term it is a tougher road if you are looking at the cruise lines, obviously we know they had to raise a tremendous amount of capital, both equity and debt if you look at coming out of previous crises or crashes like the tech bubble crash or the global financial crash, that group at the epicenter had a huge bounce but wobbled for years afterwards >> i wonders, delano, i wonder is it investing or gambling with the cruise lines because you don't know what is going to happen >> you really don't. it would be more, as mentioned
by the panel, making trades as based on the headlines that presents a difficult role for an investor looking outward a little further as we mentioned, yeah, i think it is one of the areas where the addressable market could be potentially shrinking as we have different variants popping up we are fighting and battling with i think from my standpoint we stayed out of these names. it is not something we wanted to invest in for long term. >> maybe a bit of trade if you have the guts for it otherwise, hold on to your hats. all right. next up, holy dr. octopus. "spider-man: no way home" breaking through the $1 billion market ticket sales over the weekend. needless to say, the only movie to hit the milestone for this year, probably for many reasons you can figure out maybe peter parker is a special one off. can others do the same going forward, or do we think people are still spooked by sitting in the theater or have they done their home up enough they don't need to go to the movies, seema?
>> that's what i thought but "spider-man" suggests if the content is good people will go out and buy a ticket and see it in the theater i think it is a shot of optimism for theater owners and a bit of humble pie for those who have been saying for the last year that theaters are dead it comes down to the content and new releases into next year. >> yeah. michael santoli, listen, of course you might have heard about a company called amc they're like a movie theater stock and there are some people on the internet that like to trade them back and forth. of course, i'm being a bit sarcastic here but it goes to the whole reddit trade as well. seema asked me about the more volatile maybe i should have said movie theaters and cruise lines and lump them together >> yes there's no doubt about that. although i would really look toward things like cinemark which you were flashing up there as a proxy for what people think about the box office and the staying power for the return to moves. amc became a phenomenon of its own.
it traded at many multiples of its pre-pandemic market value when pre-pandemic earnings will probably never be seen again i think you have to set it aside as a special case, and maybe set "spider-man" aside as a somewhat special case in terms of circumstance it was a fan base that wanted to be there from the beginning. a lot of pent-up demand for these characters sony doesn't have a big streaming platform so they weren't going to put it out there on the day of the box office re-lee either >> let's move to topic number four apparently high grocery costs are okay, but high delivery costs are not. whole foods reportedly seeing a big drop in delivery osrders after instituting a $10 delivery fee two months ago the amazon grocer offering free delivery to prime members. a spokesman said delivery remains a driving part of the business increased competition from the likes of instacart and others, will that be the case for much
longer delano, what do you think? does whole foods have a customer loyalty problem? >> that will be interesting to see. i think the sensitivity of the sticker shock consumers saw when the price came in probably played a bit into them losing some of the deliveries in the long-term i think convenience is what consumers a lot of times pay for that's a big thing we saw when we saw the big thriving delivery apps i think that's something they will get back. as far as amazon, the holding company, it is not something that's of a scare for them i think it is something that will be absorbed and consumers will stick to the convenience factor, brian. >> yes seema mody, i mean you live in new york city. it is all about delivery it is all about convenience. are you going to balk at $10 >> yeah, i will, brian here is why. there is a new generation of ultra-fast delivery startups we are talking 15 to 30 minutes, whatever you want, a fee that's very low gorilla, go which just raised a
billion dollars from soft bank these are the threat, it is not just instacart clearly this is a field, a market that's becoming more crowded, and now there are new players getting whole foods, and therefore amazon, a run for their money. >> yeah, why not let the venture capital and the private equity funds firm it. don't lose money on every trade, but we'll all benefit as the food is delivered to our door. delano, mike, seema, thank you all very much. coming up, have you tried to find an at-home covid test recently yeah, good luck. demand is soaring, supplies are down we will talk about it next and whether or not the rapid tests work well enough for you to care but first, this asset declining again today on the heels of a strong week what is the mystery chart? we will let you know and we will head to break with a lot of markets in the christmas green the s&p at a new high, its 69th record high of the year. nasdaq up nearly 200 points. santa claus is not done yet.
all right. welcome back to "the exchange" bitcoin coming off a strong week let's get down to christina p. for a market flash on what they're doing today. >> i don't want to jinx it because anything is possible, but it might be tough for bitcoin to hit the promised $100,000 by year-end, but it is definitely charging higher what a year of all-time highs and record-breaking drops in 2021 year-to-date the cryptocurrency is well above 75% higher, on pace for the third straight positive year after gaining over 306 last year. to the two-year mark, 616% that's nothing compared to ether, the second largest digital coin, up above 450% after gaining almost 480% just last year alone. crypto link stocks moving higher like american bitcoin miner american digital we are seeing that trend higher.
that's up 22% in the past five days similar patterns for riot blockchain, coinbase, you see across the board a sea of green. some could be due to the upcoming crypto big. wyoming senator lummis plans to introduce a bill that would create a new regulatory body she tweeted she is seeking bipartisan o-sponsors out there. such a bill, as you know, could provide clear guidelines on how to navigate and regulate the crypto world back to you. >> all right christina, thank you very much all right. up next, demand for at-home covid testing is booming a black market is popping up, but we had a big study out of switzerland on testing and here is a question as we head to break. do the rapid tests work well enough on omicron enough for you to care? dr. michael mean is the leading voice on this in america he is here next. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get
every day in business brings something new. ally whose resumes on indeed so get the flexibility of the new mobile service designed for your small business. introducing comcast business mobile. you get the most reliable network with nationwide 5g included. and you can get unlimited data for just $30 per line per month when you get four lines or mix and match data options. available now for comcast business internet customers with no line-activation fees or term contract required. see if you can save by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities. ♪ welcome back to "the exchange." as covid cases pop across most of america, demand for at-home covid tests is off the charts and they're flying off the shelves. here is the thing. the first of its kind study last week from switzerland last week
shows most rapid tests are less effective at properly identifying omicron. joining us is the chief science officer at e-med, a telehealth company that walks you through the testing process. doctor, you have been the leading voice on rapid testing, you have read op-eds we have gone back and forth on twitter a number of times. what do we make of the swiss study? it shows they're less effective at identifying omicron, but does it make them useless >> yes, so actually the study didn't actually show that. it is far too complicated for me to go into the actual science behind it, but what it actually, i think, is demonstrating is that omicron is replicating much more efficiently but everything we see when you actually get it to sort of per virus, how well do these rapid tests detect omicron, it is
actually -- they're across the board detecting omicron just as well as they were detecting delta in the previous versions it is actually an issue with how the studies are performed, makes it appear that way >> okay. let's go back to that because i have ten scientists who disagree with you on that >> uh-huh. >> i talked to them and we've gone back and forth on twitter, and it seems that there is a -- you need to take more rapid tests to get what you might -- take three in two days or something like this rather than one and relying on it, but you disagree with that take? >> so, no, the thing is the tests are identifying the virus just the same. what is happening is people are spreading the virus quicker, before the virus migrates well into the nose. we are actually seeing around a day of infect ift befivity befol are detected on the test,
whether it is pcr or antigen one of the reasons it is so transmissible is become are becoming infectious from the time they're exposed, and then a day later the tests are starting to pick you up some people are finding that a throat swab is better able to detect in the some tests are ab to pick you up the virus starts in the throat and then works its way up into the nose >> that's interesting, because we obviously know the demand, dr. mena driving here today i passed two testing centers where there was lines of hundreds of people. hundreds of people what has been our problem? you have been -- you have highlighted this the fda w the stroke of a fricking pen, could change the regulatory structure from a quote, medical device, which makes them hard and expensive to produce, to basically like germany, where i think there is 70 companies making tests, not just a couple.
what in the world are the regulatory agencies doing? why is it so hard to get a test? >> yeah. the regulatory agency in the united states still does not formally recognize that there is such thing as a test that is primarily used for public health every test has to go through a medical diagnostic evaluation. i have been suggesting that we change it, and we don't lower the bar, but we change the bar to something that is much more commensurate with a public health need, testing to be fast, accessible, they need to identify you when you are infectious and not three weeks later. it doesn't mean lowering the bar for public health testing. it means creating a new pathway at the fda one thing it could afford is the ability for america and the fda to look at europe and see what are the tests used millions and millions of times and
automatically grant those emergency use in the united states because our trusted countries have used them successfully overnight that could increase capacity hundreds of millions of tests in the united states but we haven't actually pivoted towards public health evaluations of these tests at our regulatory agencies, still, two years in. >> dr. mena, it's hard to believe. world war ii, ford started making fighter planes stead of cars this is wartime. that's what i don't get. we don't even have a full-time fda commissioner. >> you are absolutely right. you know, this has been a disaster i think from an fda perspective. both administrations failed to recognize this need. i said a lot, if we were being bombed or four commercial airlines were getting shot down in our country every single day, we wouldn't wait for some reg la tear agency to say we need to act. we would act swiftly, even if we
didn't have every cinch of information. >> yep. >> we would do what we needed to do we are just not living up to that in this pandemic. >> tests are $3 equivalent, and widely available across most of western europe doctor, i appreciate you clearing that up, and clearing up the study there has been a lot of back and forth about what it really means. i am glad to know, because i have taken four tests in the last four days, that they are still somewhat accurate. dr. mena has been a leading voice on this. fda, what are you doing snoompttle holiday sales surging w the threats of omicron hanging over consumers' heads, what's going to happen next the great jan roberts nickel will be here on retail next.
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opening up your wallets over the holidays sales jumped 8.5% before christmas eve. that's the strongest growth in 17 years jan nippon joining us now, the ceo of j. rogers nippon worldwide. jan, good to see you again merry christmas. here's the thing history is littered with the remains of people who bet against the american shopper shopper is a national sport. it is a national holiday even omicron and all the new variants and concerns weren't going to hold people down. what did you see for retail over the holidays >> i thought it was extraordinary that given cost pressures, supply chain problems, the inability to hire people, wage raises and inflation, omicron -- despite that, great numbers on the top line, great numbers on the gross
margin line. maybe best holiday selling ever, but certainly in the last 17 years. >> i have got to imagine, to your point, the retailers are loving it. i didn't see a lot of discounts out there. a lot of people out there were paying full price because to your point it may have been on the shelf but it was probably just enough, which means there are no excess inventory, they don't have to disskount. there is a lot of pent up demand consumers have money in their pockets -- that's not my opinion, it is goldman sachs >> wait until this week. gift card sales from up 43%. we don't count those until they show up. they started showing up before christmas. they will show up in volume this week into next week and we have a lot of brand-new product that was stuck on the boats that's still being delivered to the stores the intersection of those two should make for great margins and really strong sales. >> i was going to wear a santa
hat but i am told stuck in the ports. i will have to wait until next year you talk about labor issues. it tough to find people, which means your labor costs are probably down. instead of having six people at a clothing store, you have three or four. the lines are longer but the labor costs are lower. are the margin was these retailers going to continue to rise >> they are setting records. can they continue to rise into 2022 is the question ic we have got a really good labor market right now from the point of view of people being able to spend. so the government-supported spending last year workers are going to support spending this year if that's true we could continue to see strong sales of things as opposed to experiences right through the first half omicron has slowed down experiences but hasn't slowed down things at all i think we are going to have a strong first half on the back of a consumer that's got a job k get a job, can get a raise object the job and can find a
new job if they want one. >> at a heighter rate. to your point about gift cards, up 43% that is stunning when to people traditionally spend their gift cards, the first week of january or do they stretch it out as long as they can. >> they spend them all in the first 60 days. they spend a huge proportion of them in the next 30 days but the biggest redemptions will come in the next two weeks. >> that does it for "the exchange." great news, i hope, i will be sticking around for "power lunch," leslie picker joins us for the entire next hour as well it is going to be another big hour as markets continue to make record highs, the s&p on pace for its 69th closing record high of the year. ♪ >> welcome to "power lunch," i'm brian sullivan, i wa