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tv   Closing Bell  CNBC  December 28, 2021 3:00pm-5:00pm EST

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>> for sure. thank you. >> all right everybody, thank you for watching "power lunch. rahel, it was a pleasure. >> let's not do this 4:00 or 5:00 in the morning. 2:00 is so much better. >> got 2:00 a.m. 2:00 p.m thank you. "closing bell" starts right now. ♪ thank you. welcome to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen a mixed session here on wall street dow outperforming. nasdaq down. s&p 500 is hugging the flat line if it closes higher that marks another record closing high. number 70 for 2021. >> you have been keeping count for us i'm wilfred frost. good afternoon lye from the new york stock exchange. utilities and consumer staples among the top performers
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crypto is selling off sharply. bitcoin below 50k. 59 minutes left of the session, sara. >> coming up on today's show breaking down the cdc's quarantine pivot and the new isolation guidance and whether the science is backing it up plus, venture capitalist bradley tusk with bold predirction of crypto. >> mike santoli is tracking the action and joining us is peter catchici mike, what is happening on the surface and beneath today? >> kind of a well earned pause from the low a week ago monday we were just above 4500 on the s&p 500. coming into today up 5.7% in 6
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trading sessions a sprint relatively broad i have been pointing out that there's wear and tear under the surface. that was catch up moves by many stocks out there and pushing a 30% total return hard to begrudge the market for taking a pause nvidia is pulling back tofd. profit taking. weighing a little bit at the index level. came into today looking overbought a way to measure that is s&p from the 50-day average. we have gotten to the overbought level matched this year four or five times typically it's been in the vicinity of when the market has flattened out, stalled, taken a breather and pulled back it is tough to fight the upside trend but that's the setup going
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into the final days of the year. wanted to take a look at the retail brokers it is an incredibly busy year for individual investor activity and look at the incumbents schwab and interactive brokers performed well they make money on the cash balances but also just a level of toift in crypto and stocks. robinhood victim of real crazy initial valuations and hard to get an edge beyond scale coinbase arguably had a robinhood. we know it struggled but interesting given the market this year for risk taking and the kind stalwart that benefited most. >> i'm glad you brought up crypto bitcoin is having a big fall down 7%.
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come down below that 50,000. below 48,000 right now it is interesting. it felt like bitcoin has core lated to the stock market well but in december that's broken down because bitcoin is down double digits for the month and the s&p up 5% or so for the month. how do you view the action and what's driving it if it's not just a pure risk taking sentiment indicator like we have seen with stocks lately. >> yeah. i think it mostly still is maybe not be the big cap stocks working really well. i think cross ownership of crypto exists with the fast moving, highly speculative names coming in for selling and from april 15th the stock market outperformed bitcoin by 40 percentage point just the braun happened in the year orr 15 months or so prior to the spring
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and so it's like giving back since then and i think of it as a risk appetite play somebody wanted to say it's a development platform, fine i look at a market prices. obeying technical levels not enough demand for eight months. >> thank you so much for more on the markets let's bring in peter great to see you as always i guess the headline from your last few notes that i have been reading is increasingly cautious. >> yes happy holidays, wilf and sara. i think that's right mike made some wonderful points. one of the things that speaking to the s&p stellar performance this year doesn't address is dispersion in equities more generally. looking at small caps for example the russell 2000 made in
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high in march and a brief breakout high again in october or early november and has been range bound most of the year the s&p is not representative of all stocks we can also see that relative to breadth for the new york stock exchange composite where there are -- let's call it under 50% of the stocks there under the -- over the 200-day moving average. within the s&p we see stock performance struggling to get above the 50-day moving average. the stocks that we know so well a handful, maybe a half dozen driving s&p performance and when i look at bigger picture items into 2022 we have a fed that's novel constraints on the hands persistent inflation and it's already at the zero bound with funds. why that's important is if we harken back to 2018 we remember
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when things started to slow and the economy started to wobble a little bit the fed cut from 250 to 175 that's sort of cured the yield curve inversion and stimulate the economy and get asset prices to rally after a 20% draw down late '18 rates are hugging the zero bound and the only thing to do is use the tools to fight inflation and that in and of itself only could cool the economy. >> and is year end itself a potential trigger for selling or not so specific as that? >> i wish i had a great answer to that question year end is tricky, hard to assess and when institutional investors are dressing windows meaning that they buy more of the names that work well into the end of the year and did see that in the spectacular five-day
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run we saw until today i think year end is hard to use to extrapolate anything into next year whatsoever. >> i feel like you have been bearish all year am i wrong since we talked to you in the beginning of the year you were worried about high esch taxes and bond yields hurting the market what surprised you most about the fact to end the year up 27.5% on the s&p 500 >> yeah. i would say that's a touch of a mischaracterization. i don't think i was bearish all year and got cautious in may and then overtly bearish in july pretty much across the board my focus all year is small caps. and their underperformance to be what i believe is continued margin pressure going into 2022 and i think what surprised me a
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little bit though was the ability of companies to weather the inflation storm. upon further analysis, however, it does make sense that companies did so for the first half of the yearand looking at instances when ppi exceeds cpi as it is now it happens with more of a lag than i think i anticipated. one two quarters i think that's going to catch up with company earnings coming into 2022. if there's a surprise for me it was the ability of companies to weather the inflationary pressures. frankly that we saw coming and the market weathered than we felt it might. >> sounds like sticking with the bearish guns for 2022. thank you. always good to have you. >> thank you after the break, tesla about to cap off another stellar year of returns and wedbush thinks
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the party will keep going into 2022 forecasting a 30% upside for tesla stock. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. dow positive s&p flat nasdaq down half a percent we'll be right back. (swords clashing) -had enough? -no... arthritis. here. aspercreme arthritis. full prescription-strength? reduces inflammation? thank the gods. don't thank them too soon. kick pain in the aspercreme.
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despite that, shares higher by 55% year to date and wedbush forecast tesla charging higher in 2022 with the $1400 price target on the stock. joining us now dan ives. twice in under 24 hours. what a pleasure. >> great to be here. thanks. >> let's talk about firstly how you get to this price target i know you have been bullish for a while. i think it's helpful to remind everyone the multiple that implies to get to $1400. >> yeah. we have viewed tesla as a disruptive technology name so when they get to scale looking at 2025, 2026 earnings, could they have $25 plus earnings potential? i think that's just one way to look at it i also view sum of the parts looking at china alone i think
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that could be worth 4040 in a bull case $500 a share and right now just part of green tidal wave we see an inflection 2022 right now it is really sure the next step of the tesla growth story playing out. >> so i didn't hear in that what the actual multiple is or which year's earnings you base that. why do you think it holds that multiple when at least this year there's been a bit of flirtation with profit taking, a shift in how bullishly penople value thi company? >> no doubt. the haters continue to hate but when you start to look out for disruptive technology stocks to put a call at 45, 50 multiple on $30 of earnings and could be stronger the next few years look
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at a base 1400, full case 18 right now in terms of evs i think unit growth next year accelerates and see 55% plus and look at battery technology and this is the key. you look at the gross margin profile to expand significantly. now the profitability picture starts to come into hold and been a one-two punch and now see that play out over the coming years. >> what about china, dan what if they fail to really penetrate that market as musk has planned to and as investors have hoped which is the growth opportunity? there's been some challenges. >> no doubt. if you look at earlier this year between the pr issues, safety issues and as well as just from a chip perspective, china started out dark in terms of
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earlier this year and now the strength accelerates into the rest of this year and i think in 2022 you could look at 50k per month run rate and as you highlight that really is the fork in the road if china any time there's some white knuckles around china that's clearly an overhang on china, that's a bull thesis and i think next year could be 50% of deliveries from china and the profitability in china is more than the u.s now you put austin in terms of that factory build-out and berlin and is not just a golden age of evs. >> what happens to lucid, rivian and the other newer ev players
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do you think tesla is correlated to the share prices next year? >> i never viewed it as a zero sum game it is tesla or it's a biggest transformation to the industry since 1950s looking at rivian i think they define the category along with ford and that's a trillion of the 5 trillion in terms of spending over the next decade. look at ford and gm. there's a massive rerating on names. so i think the difference in 2022 is not just tesla seeing the pure plays benefit and needs to be execution. that's the issue this year these companies come out with hype you don't execute and investors throw in the white towel right away >> what changes next year in terms of consumer adoption you said it's a tipping point
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into a mass market phenomenon. how does that change >> i think in europe specifically we are starting to see a change in terms of ev adoption, gas prices, carbon footprint and seeing what we believe call it 1 of every 4 to 5 consumers goes ev in europe. you look what's happened in the united states. you are seeing massive focus many diving boo the deep end of the pool tesla is the core brand on model y and could double in terms of 2% of autos evs in the u.s. to 4% over 18 months. that's the key in terms of how this plays out and it is a carrot and a stick charging networks. starting to see infrastructure
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around this. i believe 2022 we start to see a step up in evs led by tesla. >> dan ives, thank you for joining us with that bullish call. >> thank you. we got 40 minutes to go before did closing bell. we have a big divergence sectors going in different directions small caps also down about a third of 1%. some defensive groups working better today staples are having a good day. industrials are strong tech, health care and communication services at the bottom of the list to calls for coal to spin off the e-commerce unit it is a big year for activist investors. the battles that could be brewing until new year check out the top searched tickers on cnbc.com. apple in the top spot yet again
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today. remember, following news to close the new york city stores 10-year yield on top as always yields are still below 1.50. tesla, nvidia, s&p 500 which if it goes higher will be another record we'll be right back. new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today.
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36 minutes left to trade jg dow up 111 engine number 1 surprise victory is a surprise. let's picker with the story. leslie >> hey, sara exxon perhaps the standout proxy fight of the year but activism ticked down in 2021. there were 746 companies targeted worldwide, a 7% decline from 2020 lefts and smallest numbers in at least seven year just activity picking up in the fourth quarter headlines that john & partners
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is pushing to reengage before a planned spinoff. that story by reuters citing people familiar with the matter. yesterday starboard with stake in godaddy and also pushing for macy's to separate and third point wrote a letter to shell urging the major to breaking several into units as for 202, i'm speaking with advisers saying there's activity percolating in secret that hasn't been made public yet and likely to see that at the surface in 2022 but people say we're so busy and we'll see. >> we will leslie, thank you so much. we are just about on record close watch for the dow. but some way off need to get up by about 50 points or so
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s&p anything positive would be a record coming up the forecast for the cloud. speaking with the krceo of nutax trying to take a bite of amazon. a mixed session for yields 10-year around 1.48. earn about ,
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the more questions we have. the biggest question now, what's next? what will covid bring in six months, a year? if you're feeling anxious about the future,
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you're not alone. calhope offers free covid-19 emotional support. call 833-317-4673, or live chat at calhope.org today. welcome back new reporting out today that could alter the makeup of the federal reserve.
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according to the "the wall street journal" the biden administration is considering sarah bloom raskin she joins us every fed show. the former deputy secretary treasury and at the fed as a former governor and another family name to viewers of lisa cook is considered for a fed board seat as well wilfred, this is a really key position because it is the chief bank regulator at the fed, something that particularly liberal senators like elizabeth warren criticized the federal reserve for. raskin was at the fed 2010 to 2014 and involved with the implementation of dodd-frank we frequently have her on to talk about monetary policy and not as much on banks but i think she would satisfy the
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progressive side of the party and she is known as a pragmatic type economist with policy curious if you hear reaction from the banking community she got an eye to climate and how that is going to work with economics which could factor in the decision making on regulation. >> not hearing a response yet but i think what their take would be is pragmatic. i don't think it would be excessively liberal or punitive, for example. >> right. >> i and me liking banks so much i hope she gets it we could have long and detailed conversations about bank regulation and we'll see both potential appointments very interesting. time now for a cnbc news update. hi, rahel. >> hi. here's what's happening at this hour
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in virginia experts opened a second time capsule found in the pedestal of a huge statue of robert e. lee. they have money and artifacts. actor hugh jackman said he has covid. jackman is playing the lead in "the music man" on broadway. new york county prosecutors say that two separate allegations of inappropriate behavior against former governor cuomo are credible and cannot be charged because it is outside the statute of limitations. in italy an annual fight with flour and eggs returned they stage a mock coup and hurling food at each other the festival making a comeback after being canceled last year
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nothing like a good food fight which you don't have much as an adult, sara. seems like a lot of fun. >> i was going to say getting back to normal sort of a normal tradition for them. thank you. former cdc director tom frieden weighs in on the quarantine dow up 100 points. sales are down from last quarter, but we're hoping things will pick up by q3. yeah... uhhh... doug? [children laughing] sorry about that. umm...what...it's uhh... you alright? [ding] never settle with power e*trade. it has powerful, easy-to-use tools
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23 minutes left of trading the cdc slashing the isolation guidance for asymptomatic covid infections from ten days to now five joining us is dr. tom frieden, it's good to have you back on. and it's good that we are trying to keep people coming back to work to avoid labor shortages and disruptions to the economy like we have seen but debate out there today whether this is the safe policy. what do the studies show >> the virus that produces covid is adapting and we need to adapt. omicron is spreading rapidly astonishingly quickly. seen cases in new york city triple in a short period of time it's more like a flash flood than a wave. in order to avoid having covid continue to dominate our lives
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there are a few things to do vaccinate and boost. mask and mask up if you're older get an n-95. balance what we do balance what we do as individuals and what we do as a society. as individuals if something is really important to you, do it but as safely and possible schools need to teach and most of all the health care facilities safe and operational. what's clear with omicron is that you're very infectious for a day for two before you feel sick and then when you feel sick and then not very infectious at all. >> why didn't they say that you should have a negative test after five days before going back to work or be fully vaccinated for five days those are the points that other
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doctors who was on yesterday and confused why unvaccinated after five days isn't contagious. >> the sensible recommendations tread careful line, based on science and always judgment call just we wish we knew more than we know when we have to make recommendations and always making recommendations before you have perfect data. i'm bothered that cdc didn't have a press conference. there's good reasons but they haven't been able to explain that clearly i don't know why they don't have regular news briefings with the subject experts working on through the christmas holiday and they've got a good reason. for example, if you required testing to get out of isolation, which test do you require?
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pcr test can be positive long after someone is not infectious. would they not get tested? would you do more harm than good how much of the transmission will you stop by doing that versus how much benefit by getting people back in school and back at work and avoiding having a hospitals not have the staff they need to take care of people >> doctor, despite the sort of rampant cases at the moment, i wonder whether there's a big positive to take from it which is that surely the chances of lockdowns from here are very, very minimal you could look at that on the positive side of immunity rising in the country and also the negative side of countries like france just reporting a record daily case number despite measures and showing that they don't work anyway. >> people are certainly tired of
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them vaccination, boosting and masking are small things to do to prevent overwhelming the health care system and seeing a thousand unvaccinated americans dying every day in the u.s. and the key is to ramp up vaccination, boost and mask. an unknown is how many deaths will there be from the omicron wave the highest average daily case count 250,000. omicron goes above that. the average top number of new hospitalizations per day is 16,000 new deaths 3500. we hope omicron won't come anywhere near that and may be milder particularly in people vaccinated or had a prior infection but only time will tell and can't take back what you have done and vaccinate and
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boost and mask up and balance. if it's important to you do it but do it safely. >> we got more news today. you mentioned how quickly omicron is spreading now 58.6% of covid cases in this country. it revised last week's numbers from 73% of cases to 22.5% of cases. which is a huge miss and a big revision and also kind of hard to understand. you led this agency. what's going on there with the data as best you can tell? and not to pile on the cdc but this is where we go and this is where businesses go to get information about how to take care of employees and it's - the information is hard to read. >> i don't know. that's a surprising difference whether last week or this week is wrong it was a stunning
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number last week and more credible that it was lower but this is a reason i wish cdc was speaking regularly to answer the questions because they're valid and need to be answered and the answer may be someone made a mistake or the sample size is larger and the first samples of omicron. various ways to explain that but unless the cdc is speaking to the media we don't know. >> dr. frieden, thank you for joining us. >> thank you. crypto takes a tumble. karen shares the shopping list and ceo for booking holdings give the forecast. the market zone is nengs next
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welcome back we have a huge lineup in the second hour of "closing bell." bradley tusk with three bold predictions on three red hot parts of the market for next year the pharma playbook from a top analyst. and the ceo of nutanix will tell us about the effort to put an accident in amazon's cloud dominance and the rough year for cathie woods' funds. all of that coming in the second hour but first we are now in the "closing bell" market zone mike santoli is here to break down the moments of the trading day and today joe taranova
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moving in different directions on record close watch for the dow and s&p and nasdaq pulling back after four straight days of gains. anything positive for the s&p would be a record. we have 7 basis points of gains. we are just shy though of a record close on the dow. looks unlikely to be met mike, a bit of a breather today of what was a stellar five trading days from last monday's pullback. >> yeah. that's basically the size of it. it is easy to forget that we did have a ramp binto the long weekend. getting into navigating to next year it is a question of ride the winners or do trolling for the laggards with divergences in the market right now looking at the extremes like cannabis and clean energy and then the upstart cloud stocks
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cloud stocks that are upstarts seem like they would be ripe for mean reversion. >> joe it feels like narrative-wise it is about omicron and the economy more than the fed. what do you think is driving us and continues? >> sara, i think it is the remarkable resiliency of the market and i think that investors are understanding the concerns relating to omicron and the potential response of 2022 from the federal reserve from an improving economy. therefore, the risk profile of the market is clearly changing we have enjoyed in 2021 the lowest realized volatility in several years. down 22% year to date.
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and that's led to the highest risk adjusted return for the s&p in the better part of the last three decades and seeing that the market is understanding that and it's gravitating to a more qualitative holding. look at consumer staples, health care quarter to date apple is up 26%. that encompasses the majority of the year to date 36% gain and i don't think the market wants the speculative areas. the last couple years and that the hyper growth stocks and wants that qualitative holding and moving in that direction for 2022 because volatility will increase. >> speaking of, bitcoin is taking a hit today down a little more than 7% below the $50,000 mark down about 6.4%.
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the cryptocurrency down. coinbase on base to snap a four-day win streak. joe, you consider crypto highly speculative part of the market and don't want to be there for 2022 >> i think of it in terms of again understanding what's my risk assumption. in 2021 i was blessed with an environment where central banks were oceans of liquidity that will be stepped back and greszly some -- i'm not going to do it. crypto assets if you could have 1% of the portfolio allocated
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there you're able to endure the volatility associated with the maturation process of cryptos trying to define what nay are going to become in the financial services industry but the problem is that the temptation, the discipline and control is not there on the part of speculators. they stepped well beyond and concentrate in a particular direction and i don't think that's the environment where you're going do do anything except be punished for that behavior so i think the discipline behavior is a very small allocation to cryptocurrencies and the form of bitcoin itself, not a lot of the other speculative coins that are being introduced. >> do you feel that's what the vast majority of bitcoin or crypto holders have done or a small percentage with exposure
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and then massive exposures >> that's a great question i think it's indicative of markets overall. i think what happens is the majority of the longer holding of cryptos let's take in this instance is in the hands of what i would call strong hands. right? it is in the hands of those that have endured the ride higher and could endure the volatility that's coming. i think mike said something like, since april the equity market has outperformed and it has and how many investors have come into the crypto trade above 50,000 or even above 60,000? how many investors have come in with a percentage well beyond what they wanted to allocate towards when the price is 5,000 or 10,000. that's the problem with price momentum and a problem as it
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moves higher and where i introduced this word maintaining discipline it is important to do. i think the majority of the stronger hands that hold crypto will be fine and unfortunately i think there's weaker hands there and i think that process extends itself into the new year. >> have a look at travel stocks today. seema mody has a breakdown for us. >> hello booking holdings ceo today saying that he acknowledged the impact of covid on staffing and cancelations and pushing more travelers to reassess plans. listen in. >> so if an airline doesn't have the appropriate staffing it can't get that plane up in the air and they have to cancel the flight and the holiday season is worse because thing are so prouded. there's not a lot of
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flexibility. people out of place. you have to get rebooked to be home and beginning the vacation may decide to rebook later in the year i understand that. >> he doesn't see the latest travel woes derailing the broader recovery in 2022 saying the cancelations is a small percent taj of the tote annual and saying shorteningthe quarn tee period is encouraging. >> thank you for that. is this broader sector back to trading often multiples or led by the news headlines? >> mostly headline driven. probably also trading some anticipation of a normalized level. hotels is the case i doubt for cruise lines and difficult to go point to point and say this is going to be
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normalized we are around 90% of tsa air travel volumes of 2019 levels. over the course of two years would volumes have risen if there was no pandemic? that's probably the upper bogey. i think airlines are basically just a bit of a call option on normal times whenever that might be the case and i think their balance sheets are heavy loads to get to a point where they have good returns on capital and enriching shareholders >> nasdaq down .6% s&p down 7 points. cowan with the outlook for retail stocks with key investment strategies for the new year first saying it preferred stocks to high-end consumers and provide deep value to lower end consumers. and said that it expects
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significant and semi-permanent inflation next year and suggests pricing leverage top picks are walmart, costco and rh which have all kind of die verged this year joe, walmart in particular is down for 2021. flattish down i think 1%. is that a comeback play for 2022 >> first of all, i'll credit cowan. an excellent report. i think if you go out and buy walmart and i don't have a problem with basically do the same thing with target which is also seen some recent underperformance i think that will come back quickly. target is owned in the joe t etf and hit the mark here to identifying the names to own i would cite estee lauder, ulta beauty costco had a strong year, a name
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to look at if you look for off price apparel take a look at tjx but in the direct comparison of walmart and target i think target wins out. >> we have what? two minutes left of the session. those possible record closes loo looking elusive now, mike. >> yeah. slippage very minimal moves and low volumes as you might expect. if you look at the volume split on the new york stock exchange it is pretty evenly split all day. roughly in the 50/50 zone. noncommittal market. people skim off the fast profits from the big winners of the last week or so new lows versus new highs in the nasdaq another little increase in new 52-week lows on the nasdaq
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smaller names and down and out it is happening in the tape. volatility index is settling back below 18 on the day. benign at this level we were up 1.4% in the s&p yesterday so upside volatility counts as volatility, too. maybe can settle back to the low of 15 with real calm markets into year end, guys. >> less than a minute to go into the close. we have got the big splis why the dow higher up about 77 points or so there's definitely a defensive feel to the market today united health care contributing. biggest drag microsoft and tells you. technology underperforming today. tech sector is down.
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nasdaq is lowest down about .6 into the close and s&p 500 breaks the little win streak we had going. what's working today utilities, industrials, consumer staples. the worst performing technology. had a few gains in amazon, starbucks and weakness in the big winners. welcome to "closing bell." i'm wilfred frost with sara eisen and mike santoli coming up on the show, tusk venture ceo bradley tusk says 2022 could be a big year for crypto, sports betting and the pot industry and will join us. plus a ceo of nutanix how he plans to disrupt amazon in the cloud space. joe taranova is still with us.
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mike, just in terms of whether or not we'll see other parts of the market that's not broken down start to do into the new year as opposed to this week itself there's still seasonal factors sporting the market this week. >> no. there absolutely are it's very difficult to really try to push against this upside drift. doesn't mean you have to go up much from year there's a big question of the indexes versus the average stock. not necessarily on the year to date basis but seems like there's not a lot of deferred selling going into january and people lighten up in december. that might be different from prior years. i don't think people said wait until the tax year to sell
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because there's a scare. it's tough to handicap what the crowd psychology is and the net position of everybody but seems like a rebuilding of conviction phase. lost conviction about the macro with omicron and with the fed talk in the last couple of months and i think rebuilt now that the market is resilient seen that rotational energy we had back into the market with banks up as big growth stocks were easing back. >> a biggest theme to me today in the market action is some worst performers of 2021 on top. utilities best today disney right on top today. do you see this as a tax of year end book stuff or potentially bargain hunting in terms of next year last year energy was the worse
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and this year it was the best. >> [ inaudible ] early stages of january but not sure that's the viable strategy as we move forward i would focus on faang i think the market is all about faang and the rotation is everything else going into faang. the environment, whether it's the monetary policy concerns or the health care concern just the solution seems to be the durability and the capital allocation strategy from these faangs and there really is a rotation from traditional fixed income into what looks like traditional fixed income and that's the faangs themselves until you break down the faang i don't think you see the index overall suffer a significant decline and will keep an overall
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positive bias to markets. >> let's hit health care on track to underperform the broader market this year joining us now katherine faddis. with picks in health care for the in year. >> thank you for having me first name is knee owneo genomis they screen for cancer go in for the breast exam. there's a lump the doctor says we got to go get this tested. that's when they come in they will do anything from a $40 test from the '50s to a $2,000 test the company continues to invest in innovation. now you may not need a biopsy. you can test kcancer with just the blood. sadly cancer is still a growth
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industry because the aging of the population 10,000 baby boomers turning 65 every day. 1.7 million new cases a year the stock down because volumes are down cancer patients are immui no compromised. they reduced guidance. $33 stock down from $60 in february the ceo bought 17,000 of shares on december 6th. i think it could double in 2022. >> very interesting. >> by the way, charlie does a great job, too. >> tell us about the next one. u.s. physical therapy. >> it is another one we own. stock is down almost 40% from the high in february they operate outpatient clinics. for sports related injuries in 39 states. it is an industry lead every in
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the fragmented states. this one is a little different because the company has been hitting on all the cylinders and down on sentiment. every timethere's a covid variant there's an assumption traffic will slow down the company beat third quarter i'm not sure why the market isn't giving it love i think it will do extremely well in 2022 pace and volumes is up management is high quality i like this one. >> joe, a lot of these names that she likes aren't getting a lot of love because within health care what worked are the vaccine names and tops the list. it makes sense as people focus on that.
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not getting the scheduled surgeries. because that change and change the stock trajectories for health care in 2022? >> i think overall the some of these names can work and the u.s. physical therapy it is a reasonable valuation so i agree on that but i think overall the sentiment to health care will improve dramatically in 2022 and whether you're talking about even the most simple construct of health care and managed care or united health care or anthem, they've performed very well so i think we are going to expand upon looking at opportunities beyond covid therapies and vaccines and therapeutics and looking at the diversification element and a defensive element and a little bit of a growth
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orientation. take a look at bio tech and make sure you're doing it from focus of large cap companies as an am gen and focus on companies to deliver that sustained revenue. >> katherine, for the final question want to pivot from individual stock picks and ask where your positioning is overall and telling the clients to take profits after another stellar year for equities. >> we are telling our clients to move away from the faangs. joe, i agree the faangs are a good, solid, fundamentals are great they have gone up so much so here's something like amazon amazon continues to have strong fundamentals but if you look at the stock price it's done nothing since august of 2020 i see that happening with a
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microsoft, with a metta, facebook, google, alphabet i think in 2022 you're going to see a broader market i think the faang trade i like the faang stocks and the fundamentals and the free cash flow but i think the trade is a crowded trade. i can't see them continuing to lead in 2022 >> thank you so much joe, before you go, we wanted to get you to zone in on the top trade idea >> prologis. ticker symbol pld. playing the global supply chain. think about the growth of e-commerce, the need of logistic facilities and understand san francisco based the customers include amazon, home depot,
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walmart and fedex and we know what's going on. there's a need for facilities, prologis is providing it and could see $200 >> hasn't that been the story for them it is had a terrific run, joe. >> absolutely without question the pricing power that they have enjoyed over the last several months will continue to enjoy that i think a lot of times people think that when you begin to realize profitability in the sweet spot that it just ends because you have realized it no this is something that could extend the duration and go well beyond what people imagined and this is a sweet spot to last for many, many years you tell me. when are we going to see the inflationary pressures reside? i don't think anyone knows but it is not coming any time soon. >> yeah.
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no and many people have been wrong on it. thank you. always good to have you. the second hour of "closing bell." after the break bitcoin having a rough session today. bradley tusk says major moves could happen next year on the regulatory front and joins us with predictions later vaccine stocks have seen explosive returns this year and could the party be coming to an end? llin "osg here onclin be" two minutes
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welcome back crypto market getting crushed. bitcoin, ether and light coin sinking. next guest looking at crypto as a top theme to watch out for for
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next year. bradley tusk joins us now. bradley, thank you for joining us on the broad points of crypto do you think it can have another year quite as net positive as it did this past year >> no. but you know i think two years ago we didn't think that either. last year was a phenomenal year for crypto but a trend we believed started with covid. one thing we learned about the virus is we don't know what will happen next. so i think to a certain extent what people are doing and working from, going out or not, driving the behavior around crypto. >> do you think we get a significant amount of regulation next year and does that hurt or help crypto? >> the latter. it should help as long as it's the right regulation to me at least 2022 is hopefully the year where politics are
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serious about crypto and crypto is serious about politics. one to protect consumers that's the first job of government but two, make the u.s. the home of crypto in the world and really capture the jobs. china banned crypto. there's opportunities in this country. we ought to take advantage it. hopefully we'll see washington figure that out. tax policy, everything else and then get serious about politics. we heard noises about it from the companies but overall nothing is done in washington or anywhere else unless the people that need to influence can help them win the next election or lose if they don't help. if they don't believe that they don't do anything. they have not built the political muscle they need to >> yeah. after the year they have had
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they have the money to i wanted to ask you about the prediction of cannabis in particular because there's -- there was hope for the stocks and the companies are making moves the position for the u.s. market, especially tilray. the stocks have been disappointing. legislation is in no man's land. what happens there >> i think fundamentally until thepresident says to doj figur out a way to get this done and get it off the schedule 1 you will be in this limbo. congress can bairely get an infrastructure and spending bill done the idea to sail through congress is unlikely however, i think biden used whatever expect i authority to push it forward. >> what about sports betting >> i think it will grow a lot.
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states are looking at it when you think about it, we say sports betting and mean more than that. we mean sports poker. it could mean e-sports that's the biggest opportunity if they bet on whether the next play is running a pass that's infinite scale and so much easier than to organize a professional football game to bet on and we'll start to see people on the tech side building platforms to do that or regulators understanding this is coming how should we get ahead of it. >> question for bradley tusk the venture capitalist and not the regulatory expert, what is the flood of money into startups and
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private companies. the spacs, the vc deals and whether it continues to hold up in an environment where despite the fact of 2021 good for stocks not so good for owneipos and sps that went public do you think that dries up some of the capital on the private side >> it should but i don't think it will. so reason being venture funds used to be relatively small dollar amounts and now funds are worth tens of billions of dollars and in order to deploy that much capital you have to write big checks then the valuation has to be high to justify the check and because there's so much money sitting in vc funds they have to invest at this pace.
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we do seed and series a. they mark up the investments significantly. ultimately when the stocks get to the market whether it's in an ipo or direct listing or whatever else they often don't hold up. you see a spac opening at 10 and then at 650. we have a couple companies like that, too. it will stay high for that reason and some point the reality, the fact the public market don't support it has to come to light. >> bradley, a question from me on the public markets in terms of big cap and mega cap tech, anything over half a trillion. any of those companies with a multiple that you think is very vulnerable or that the areas they focus on missing the next big stage of innovation in a big way? >> it is a really good question.
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i think facebook comes to mind the most because my schedule is regulation politics. they face the greatest rig la tori risks and when you look at the renaming of company to meta, i think that's where they want to take it and the payment system they rolled out a couple years ago and waiting for federal approval for i thought it was a version of paypal that's a really big bet and i think that's where the company is going because you will have privacy regulations from the u.s. to limit the ability to monetize people's data and got to shift to something else and i think it is like payments in the metaverse. that's the most interesting one of the big five or six with the most at stake right now. >> hmm bradley tusk, good to talk to you. >> thank you happy new year. >> happy new year.
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still to come, betting big on bio tech. strong revenue of vaccines sending a slew of names higher this week. breaking down the names for 2022 after the break. plus cloud company nutanix making a big push against amazon talking to the ceo can the momentum continue in 2021 the key names wall street is ing on when "closing bell" returns.
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welcome back we've got an earnings alert. kate rogers has that for us. kate >> interesting quarter here and that stock lower company reporting eps two cents. the company ceo saying higher sales due to improved pricing for eggs in the quarter and
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returning to profitability despite higher costs the company ceo also said the food service demand continues the improve resulting in egg supply balance as restaurant traffic increases and investors worried about inflation and the production costs up in the quarter. back to you. >> the story with so many food stocks thank you. strong sales from covid-19 vaccines boosting pfizer and the others rising and will that revenue dry up in 2022 what's the impact on the stocks? joining us is ronnie gal ronnie, how do investors look at the covid revenues could it be a long term recurring revenue story for the stocks or do they see them
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peaking? >> for our sake i hope this is a peak in the near term. it is clear the level of revenue in 2021 and probably see in 2022 probably not be recurring. countries are buying and therapies for stockpiling and some of that will have to go away i think most investor expect to have a flu-plus market look at the flu market the vaccines are running between 5 and $7 billion therapies like tamiflu just under $5 billion taking the numbers and multiply by two as most investors probably are in 2022 that number is probably exceeded nine fold and project $86 billion of covid related therapies and vaccine revenue in 2022 and a sharp decline from there what seems to be having with the
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investment thesis is most investors discount that peak of revenue down to cash value and try to figure out what to put in the models for the companies. >> so what does that mean for where these stocks go next year? >> so stocks will probably trade very much with the next wave of the epidemic to the extent seeing the last big wave that probably as far as the stocks will go in '22 and '23 before they convert the technology. typically when stocks peak in terms of earnings the market penalizes them and on the other hand we have another significant peak similar to omicron and somewhere in the middle of next year and see this stock run back up and i believe the stocks will be in the trading range in 2022 and very much depend on the flow of capital
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>> what would you like to see them do and what do you expect them to do with the cash win falls this year from vaccines? >> it's a small company, moderna. had greatness thrust upon them they have a valuation of a large pharma company and they have to build for that, the infrastructure for the global structure and r&d programs to program a decent size and they work on the next generation for vaccination. flu is first program coming out. they ran into problems there's a discussion of other viruses to target and beyond that, probably has a move towards the differ ri of profeigns into the cells and bloodstreams beyond vaccination
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and therapy. investing heavily in this and buying complimentary technologies that belong into that vaccination/protein delivery space for pfizer which is a much bigger company with three to fo four times the cash flow than moderna is what can they buy they bought serna and the expectation is to be skocouting the mid cap range of companies to buy and hundreds of names they could buy and not looking at a particular name for them to push chas we don't have a particular strong read on that one way or another. >> it looks like you like some other names outside the covid
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space like a merck or gilead why has bio tech been so underwhelming as an investment and what changes next year >> i think two issues with bio tech this year seriously notable failures in the r&d and launch and alzheimer's market second there was the fear of action by the u.s. government against drug pricing which people were afraid is essentially limiting the money available to buy bio techs and so bio tech in particular is under pressure and only recently begin to recover now looks much better. our view is very, very positive. our view here is that we know where the balance of powers are in congress and no support for large action against pharma and
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without such an action given the sector 30% discount versus the market our take is that the pharma is going to run so our take is that the names that it will do well are names that have sustainable cash flows and moderate to mid size revenue growth which will be the names to buy on the market and buy the index do that. if you look to single names advie. and gilead stabilize to the franchise and made bets in oncology that we think are likely to pay out. we don't see them as nearly as volatile as the covid names and sustainable growth names for 2022. >> thank you so much for joining us >> have a great holiday, everybody. after the break, taking on a
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tech titan nutanix has sights set on amazon later cathie wood a market darling in 2020 but 2021 much more tricky. what's behind the fund's struggles, ahead
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time for a news update with brian sullivan >> thank you very much here's what's happening at this hour california's become the first state to confirm more than 5 million cases. daily case rates doubling overall. california's infection below the overall national average hospitalizations up 9% states with lower vaccination rates saw some of the biggest gains in this-store sales this holiday season according to to a reuters study. one expert says many unvaccinated customers were unconcerned and saw little risk.
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back in california, state commission says big retailers are laws and misleading consumers selling plastic shopping bags with symbols falsely suggesting to be recycled the commission said they're jamming recycling equipment. on "the news" we examine the appeal of spam not email. the canned meat and why sales set records. that is tonight 7:00 p.m. eastern. sara, back to you. hormel is a great stock. >> it has been steady spam. brian, thank you nutanix with a rough half of 2021 one way the cloud computing company is looking to bounce back tacking on amazon following outages this month joining us to discuss is the ceo. who joins us in a "closing bell"
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exclusive interview. welcome to the show. first that aren't familiar with the name and an analyst said a reason for the underperformance is the complexity and misunderstanding what you do lay it out for us. >> sure, sara. thank you. so companies around the world are going digital. they're looking to figure out how to use the public cloud and have a workforce and the trends are here for the long term we as a company provide cloud software platform to use the cloud of their choice, run applications and enable the distributive workforce think of us of an airbnb
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we provide the flexibility for the customers to operate anywhere. >> how are you chasing amazon's specifically here with the outages? >> i think companies should be looking at cloud as an operating model and not an end they should be building for security and privacy they have to choose. in this world that's really what i would call a hybrid multi-cloud world they need a platform with that model for them and what we do. we partner with amazon and microsoft. right? to enable customers to work in the cloud of their choice. >> when some of your rivals big or small have outages does that
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immediately and directly benefit you or is it harder to draw a certain link >> it actually teaches a lesson that companies should be building for resiliency. we have many customers today implementing scenarios for exactly the scenarios where they make sure to operate across multiple environments. for example we talked about many companies including large financials that use our software to work on prem and they use the public cloud as a disaster recovery platform. they can immediately switch over and build up capacity with our platform and use that. flexible and powerful use case what that teaches is you have to built for resiliency. >> what do you see for billings after a strong new years and
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migrated to the cloud and accelerated by covid >> indeed. that will continue it will be multiple clouds and destinationing looking at this as an operating model and no fundamentally if you look at what's happened here i.t. is an e enabler to do business and helping companies like us do well in this environment where we have talked about how we grow our top line at 25% for the next several years. what we told the investors and getting a positive free cash flow by the end of this calendar year '22 and so far we have had four quarters of top and bottom line and hope that will continue >> thank you so much for joining us great to see you. >> thank you thank you for having me. banking on a bounceback. mike's breaking down the charts on some of the biggest lose ores
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that might see gains next year
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easyaspie.com. biggest winners were some of the biggest losers in the market all yearlong stocks pulled back overall in
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the s&p. let's get a look at the laggards on the dow this year and the dogs of the dow strategy, mike you review the strategy and debate whether it is broken or just out of step or maybe is about to actually get some traction the classic version of dogs of the dow investing to buy the ten stocks within the dow at the end of a year with the highest dividend yields. that was a proxy for an underperforming stock and betting on a comeback and most dow stocks with roughly payout ratio just what it has been is a formula for underperformance this is not the dogs of the dow and own dow stocks weighting them by the dividend yields. you see three years a total
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return chart but even then still a deep laggard. it is not the way to win in this huge mega cap growth led market. what are the highest yielders in the dow right now? that stock ibm, dow, dow chemical, verizon, chevron and walgreens boots. walgreens outperformed coming into today and have generous yields so you know, arguably if value starts to work this strategy will again start to work and will see how that plays out into next year. >> what about disney it was the big underperformer this year. >> it is not a higher yield though so this is just sifting by dividend yield and suspended it
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and not just have -- >> that's right. >> a big drag on the dow and the s&p all year. >> in terms of when these rotations or changes in strategy could take effect does the year end make a difference? >> i wouldn't say necessarily they should. a lot of times you think it's a time for portfolio reassessment. the main kind of seasonal aspects of style change not as much about value versus growth but small caps outperforming at a new year and because they have been tossed aside at the end of a given tax year with the falling of the ball on new year's eve value comes back in style. >> thank you. next, retail sector shopping
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list why now the names investors should on the list we'll discuss cathie woods etf and on the agenda for next year.
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retail had a strong run in 2021 so where are wall street's top firms investing in the sector as we head into the new year? courtney reagan has more for us. hi, court. >> hi, wolf. along with brand strength and solid direct to consumer businesses has lulu lemon and liky as top retail plays in 2022 among several analysts capri holdings are the top 2022 pick for amk partners, the partners of jimmy choo, and versace said it won't revert back to discounts even if competitors do
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walmart and amazon on their top picks for 2022 lists, both have underperformed with the retail sector this year, but ubs says the stocks are mispricing e-commerce's impact. battle & body works said the pandemic accelerated market share along with pricing opportunity positioning bbwi well for 2022. the adviser group also has it as a top pick back over to you >> courtney, i feel like a lot of this hifnges on what the consumer will do weave had the heckup with omicron and things were pulled forward with the holiday season and every line in every retail store has been strong consumer spending buffetted by stimulus checks and all sort of monetary stimulus which does go away next year, so what's the expectation for the consumer >> yeah. absolutely >> those are all good points
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and? general the consumer is expected to remain strong and things like israel and more than likely not going away the values of homes that are homeowners also continues to increase. the availability of jobs or the ability to change jobs continues to be fairly strong. so all of those give analysts that follow the consumer and the retail sector pretty good sort of a background to make some of these picks and think, we're looking at big structural changes that happened in the way that we worked and live and the pandemic gave the opportunity for a lot of these businesses to hone in and figure out what thai do well and what they don't. some of the names took this opportunity to take some early pain for some long term gain, i should say, and that's like capri holdings, for example. saying hey, we have to figure out our business and we have to reign in what we're doing wrong and let's improve our brand equity and improve that in the long haul.
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>> courtney reagan up next, the ark fund flop cathie woods' flagship fund had a lackluster 2021 sitting out the end of the year rally, as well what is beyond the poor performance and what could be at stake in 2022 when "closing bell" bell" comes back
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let's take a look at how we finished up the day on wall street the s&p did break the recent win streak and it went down for the first time in five sessions and only a tension of 1% some of the best performing groups are some of the losers on the year like utilities and consumer staples campbell's soup did well today and disney did well, some of the laggards the dow did finish higher by 95 points the nasdaq went lower by 95% anddown .66%, still higher for the week, all of them and the month of december and of course, for the year and the s&p is up more than 27% with a few days
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left in 2021 it looks like the cult of cathie wood not paying off for investors this year. u.s. stocks soaring to end 2021 as we've seen in recent sessions despite rising omicron cases, but woods ets haven't seen the same gains none of the arkk funds will top the fund this year the ark innovation etf down 20% for the year while the s&p has jumped more than 26% bloc, coinbase, unity software, zoom video among arkk's top holdings, all of them are down more than 10% for the month of december alone and teslas had jumped more than 55% this year. this year's overall performance stands in stark contrast, of course, to the huge run-up that her fund saw in 2020 so, mike, i think overall she's still the star and has a huge following, but a little bit of the shine has come off just because of the weak performance in some of these high-growth,
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unprofitable tech names that she loves and that's been her strategy and her conviction is as solid as ever, though she thinks she'll see these strong, compounded annual returns and compound because they're strong sell etfs for logistical purposes and i haven't lose her interest in the thesis or the disruptive innovation >> no, it's bonn consistent. ark me philosophy hasn't changed and what happened was they just caught this huge rush in the zeitgeist as well as what the market was willing to reward which was this almost growth at any price hike approach. now most of what's happened to the funds this year especially the flagship fund is it's sur rentedered a huge chunk of its prior outperformance on a two and three-year basis the ark innovation fund has exactly matched the nasdaq 100 after having been ahead of it by more than 50 percentage points
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earlier this year. as a result, the average investor's dollars is a bit under water right now because so much money rushed in this is what happens when they were pulling money in in a record pace in the early part of this year, a lot of people were talking about janice in the late '90s when they were basically pulling in so much money they can scarcely put it to work and they closed the fund to new investors because it's very difficult the big question is are we going to go back to paying 10, 15, 20, 25 times sales for every software company that comes along the way we were a year ago? it's not clear >> i would say the biggest point is what sara said is there's never been any flinch in the conviction from her and her team and the argument is that the five-year price targets that they put out will yield huge returns is fine, but it was still that argument back in february, and if they'd gone back then, you could believe the conviction now a little bit more, but it was wrong in
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february will it be wrong now is, i guess, the question, but we'll see what happens next year for ark. by the way, tonight, 6:00 p.m. i'll be hosting a cnbc special called "your money 2022. we are looking at key opportunities for your portfolio and breaking down some of the biggest issues that might derail investment next year you don't want to miss that and later in the week with sara. "fast money" starts now. >> pump up the profit, pump up the profits. energy investors striking liquid gold this year and when technicians see in even bigger names. we're drilling down on names with utsch in more room to run plus, a handful of stocks doubling this year should you double down on these doubles? find out in a game of trade it or fade it later, the bitcoin pullback, but we have not one, not two, but three under the radar ways to play crypto. we'll bring them to you. welcome to "fast money." i'm frank holland in for

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