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tv   The Exchange  CNBC  December 30, 2021 1:00pm-2:00pm EST

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sheets i think there is some runway here going into 2022 stay long xle. >> all right, steve weiss, finally to you >> dick's sporting goods i think continues to recover and goes to the old highs of about 140 >> all right good stuff great to see everybody thanks so much for watching. look forward to seeing everybody tomorrow "the exchange" begins right now. ♪ thank you very much, scott hi, everybody. i'm kelly evans. it's great to be back with you ahead this hour, covid cases are surging. china and europe are locking down markets are kind of shrugging it off, touching record highs as the last economic data point came in better for the year than expected we'll talk to one economist and why he's unwaveringly optimistic but it's been a tough slog for robinhood. we speak to the street's most bullish analyst about why the meme trades and the retail army
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won't fall apart in 2022 plus, tesla's recall, a china warm from the chipmakers, and the buy back resurgence this year who does it really benefit it's all ahead in "rapid fire. let's kick things off with mike santoli. >> good to see you, kelly. kind of calm markets been flirting all day with the 4,800 level. unclear if that's a stall point for the index. the year-to-date chart looks rather healthy we did keep in kind at 4,700 really get stuck there november into december. not to say these hundred-point intervals necessarily matter that much. but we are basically at the 30% return year-to-date level. a lot of folks saying another percent up from here would kind of get you up to the top end of this rally path that we've been on since about april when we've kind of accelerated higher i did want to take a look within the nasdaq
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nasdaq 100 versus the equal weighted version of the nasdaq 100. a lot of talk about is the market too narrow. both of them are up, both the market cap weighted and the equal weighted versions. but definitely outperformance among apple, microsoft, broad com, to some degree, really contributing on a year-to-date basis on the s&p, pretty much the average s&p stock has done as well as the index. now, today you're seeing a lot of relief in some of the real beaten down high beta areas, ipo stocks, solar, the arc funds, as well as the kweb, that's chinese internet stocks. that far seems to mean that they got kind of sold out year-end jettisoning of losing positions. we'll see if that ends up being a comeback trading to january. sometimes that is a pattern where you have a lot of the lower quality beat-up stuff that gets a little bit of relief in the new year >> we're supposed to be talking about the santa rally, which i know you approve this time of
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year because we're technically in that period but are we really pulling forward some of the 2022 reset trades if you look at what's going on, like you said, robinhood, arc, pick your stock today. but we're already seeing people -- i just wonder if we're bringing forward kind of this piling in to some of these beaten-down names. >> yes i mean, people will try to front-run it but that's also typical. i can remember when all the talk was of the january effect. now, strictly speaking the january effect is the outperformance of small caps and laggard stocks in the new year and that always got inched forward into december. but it didn't completely exploit it and i would say if you look at the total losses from their peak of all those areas, the real speculative tech areas and things like that, these bounces here don't look like all that much so i'm not sure we have a pull forward. and then on a marketwide basis, the entire point, the reason people started looking at this rally period at the end of a year into the next one is it seemed to actually indicate whether you were going to have
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followthrough strength or in fact if it was a warning sign. so it doesn't seem as if it's a zero sum game, you get them now versus later >> true. all right, mike, thank you appreciate it. thank you. let's turn now to the bond market where the 10-year is clinging to that 1.5% level. rick santelli tracking that. >> one of the big features this year has been, oh, my god, look at how flat the curve's gotten, the fed needs to hurry they're hot. today we had a "wall street journal" op-ed, basically said, hey, 6.8 is the year-over-year cpi. ignore that. the preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditure, the core deflator, it's only 4.7. so we're way better off. listen, 4.7 is still, what, almost two and a half times more than the 2% we're trying to
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pinpoint but it's the path versus the destination on the yield curve you'll see what i mean in a moment here's the year-to-date of twos. they're up about 62 basis points on the year. what you really want to notice here is it's not necessarily that we're up 62 basis points. look at the way we moved in the last couple of months, straight up in terms of yield now look at the year-to-date of tens it's up almost an equal 61 basis points so they're just about the same you can see it on the spread, twos to tens it closed at 79, it's hovering just below 79 right now. so why is the market getting so much credit for trying to get the fed off zero interest rate because the path is more important than the destination the way the curve flattened, the way two-year notes bounced higher in just the last couple months really did get everybody's attention, and it's huge, even the european market look at the two week of booms. it's gone from a year-to-date
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minus 57 close last year to minus 17 today for its fifth session of higher rates. and that's the central bank that's kicking everything down the road next year's going to be interesting because the markets are going to put central banks on notice. kelly, back to you >> i like looking at it for the year because then we can see the trends which lately day to day feel like they're all over the place. new data today pointing to an improving economy jobless claims dropping below 200,000 last week. the chicago pmi posting a small upside surprise despite omicron. and my next guest says the good times are going to keep rolling next year. we have chief economist at moody's analytics. when we say bullish, how bullish are you? >> i'm on the optimistic, kelly i think if we use gdp as our benchmark, i expect it to grow about 4% for the calendar year 2022 that'll allow for a lot more jobs and i think by the end of 2022 a year from now unemployment will
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be in the mid-3. very close to what i think most people will consider to be full employment obviously the pandemic has created a bit of havoc here early in the year. but when you look through the entirety of the year it should be pretty good >> can we talk about omicron for a moment a lot of people myself included still had to do a ten-day quarantine when we got it, and it's destroying a lot of industries who are having to basically hit the brakes even though it might be less dangerous than what we had last year i now see the cdc is maybe saying the quarantine period can come down to five days what's the economic impact of omicron so far >> well, it's doing damage i think the good case study here for what's going to happen here is the delta wave, which hit back in the fall and if you look at q3 gdp growth, you know, prior to delta, i was expecting something close to 5, 6% growth. so it's a very strong quarter, we got 2
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so we still grew but very modestly i expect something similar here. before omicron really came on the scene a few weeks ago, i was expecting 5, 6% growth for 2022. obviously there are differences between omicron and delta, but i think that's a pretty good benchmark. and if that's the case, then we're going to bounce back once the wave passes and it will pass the other thing i'll say is, you know, it depends on what statistic you're looking at. i think gdp output, that'll get hit harder than jobs i think businesses can see that today's initial claims for unemployment insurance they're not going to lay off worker it's they can really help it their biggest problem is going to be labor supply so the job market should hold better than output >> one follow-up to gdp, if you add in inflation, we really saw
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growth in the 8 to 9% range, which is humongous it's there, and it does have a policy impact, maybe has an impact for what the fed's going to decide to do here so, is that adding to the confusion right now where they might need to tighten because we have high nominal gdp even though real gdp isn't that great? >> another key question here is will omicron juice up inflation like delta did delta juiced up inflation to supply chains and people got sick, couldn't go to work, and therefore wages got jacked up for those industries where a lot of those people couldn't work. so, will that happen here? i'm hopeful that we won't see the same kind of inflationary effects that the cdc's decision to reduce the self-isolation to five days, for example, is a sign that we're adjusting to the pandemic and i think supply chains, you know, obviously there will be some disruption, but i am hopeful the businesses have identified the bottlenecks and can work around them better. i don't think inflation's going to pick up here to the same
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degree that it did back when delta hit. the other big difference is on the inflation front is energy prices they were going north, you know, back during delta, which added a lot to inflation they're headed south here in omicron. and that should help so i don't think we're going to get the same kind of inflationary effects but if we do, the fed's got a real tough decision to make either about growth or inflation. >> sure. and thinking about inflation, at least it will add to upside pressure that might otherwise be going away what's your inflation forecast for 2022 and why did people get this year so long? because it's funny to look back on comments from yellen and some others where we could see 3% inflation, but no one was saying 6, 7%. >> well, i should be pretty sheepish here. i got it pretty wrong too. i missed it. i think this inflation surge that we got was delta. we didn't predict delta. think about you got the vaccines at the beginning of this time last year we thought we were on
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the other side of the pandemic and, well, we weren't. and delta really did a number. particularly southeast asia where a lot of these supply chains are and businesses were taken by surprise in my mind, the inflation we observed that really came to the fore made it top of mind was delta. and that was the big surprise. now, you buy into that diagnosis, you know, i think omicron will do some damage with regard to inflation. but i am expecting the pandemic to continue to recede here, do less damage to the economy going forward, inflationary effects less pronounced. some of these prices came crashing down. vehicle prices, they've gone parabolic, they're going to come back in, and that's going to be real deflationary. i think inflation's going to be pretty close to the fed's tact point by this time next year >> thank you so much the dow and s&p touching record highs today a neat little end cap to a
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monster year but the small caps are continuing to trail the big three. here to explain and with some under the radar ideas, we have a portfolio manager. the five-star fund is up 23% this year, up 36% over three years, and 22% over five years trailing brian, welcome it's good to have you. let's just start with the lagging that we've seen this year, which is surprising because you would have thought between energies and financials maybe small caps would outperform >> yeah. small caps definitely lagged this year if you look at the russell 2000 growth, for example, it's up around 3% versus the s&p, close to 28, 29%. the russell 2000's only up 16, 17% this year. there's been a big divergence. a lot has been because of the omicron surge that's happened recently delta, people concerned about tapering i think as we get through the beginning of 2022 and you see positive earnings revisions and small cap, you're going to see small cap start to outperform
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again. and when you look at valuation for small cap versus large cap, usually what you see because of the higher growth prospects in small cap is an absolute pe premium, but right now it's at a discount, it's trading around 19 times 2022 earnings versus the s&p trading at a premium to that >> so two of your top holdings right now, caesars and entertainment, western alliance bank tell me though about sytime corp and viker. >> sitime is a clocking company, they're able to replace courts and lots of different devices. that business has really knocked the cover off the ball this year they entered the year thinking they were going to grow at around 30% now they're going to grow at 70%. margins have been very explosive. they're at about a 10% penetration rate in their tam right now. and we think they have a lot more room to go next year. western alliance is a bank that
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we've owned throughout the year. it's trading around 11 times next year's earnings loan growths are around 11 to 14%. they have best-in-class efficiency and we think they're really going to do next year on organic loan growth and deposit side as they work through the year >> just to go back to sitime, they are up 161% this year why is replacing courts and watches such a big business right now? >> well, part, it was doing well anyway, and the performance is better for their module versus quartz they're the only ones to provide silicon. and during covid a lot of the quartz suppliers got all mucked up in their supply chains. so that really accelerated the adoption by potential customers, and that's why it's been good. and then their end customers are doing great too, like tesla is probably going to be a 10% customer next year contents moving up and they're launching lots of new products >> it's fascinating.
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you also have viker and tfi, which is more than doubled >> so, vicr, they have a 48-volt power module that is great for big data applications. and they're engaging in a big capacity expansion this year in 2022 they're going to have around a 750 million end capacity for their products versus 500 million at the end of last year. the street doesn't really have those numbers embedded in their implements throughout the year and they're the only ones that have that 48 goal product. when you look out to both 2023 and 2024, you're going to start to see cars ramping their business >> so interesting. again, some under the radar but on-theme picks for 2022, names we don't really hear a lot about. brian, thanks for your time today. we appreciate it it.
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>> thanks. coming up, it's been a december to forget for robinrood. its worst month ever, its eight straight week of losses. plus, our pandemic relief programs, the only thing preventing a wave of personal bankruptcies as we head to break, the dow turned negative in the past hour, despite record highs earlier on salesforce with a gain only of about 1% p&g declining by about the same amount we're back in a moment this is "the exchange" on cnbc (swords clashing) -had enough? -no... arthritis. here. aspercreme arthritis. full prescription-strength? reduces inflammation? thank the gods. don't thank them too soon. kick pain in the aspercreme.
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on "squawk box," market master jeremy siegel opens his playbook for new targets and milestones his outlook for 2022, tomorrow 6:00 a.m. eastern on cnbc. 6:00 a.m. eastern on cnbc. watch "squawk box" any time on how not to be a hero: because that's the last thing they need you to be. you don't have to save the day. you just have to navigate the world so that a foster child isn't doing it solo. you just have to stand up for a kid
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who isn't fluent in bureaucracy, or maybe not in their own emotions. so show up, however you can, for the foster kids who need it most— at helpfosterchildren.com welcome back, everybody. robinhood shares are nearly 80% off their all-time highs, and they're down 30% this past month alone. they've got payment for order flow regulation, cyber stock media. joining me is director of financial technology research at jmp securities you basically think the stock can still triple from here why is that? >> hey, kelly. well, first off i think we have to think about why the stock's gone down. i think you hit on a couple topics that people are focused on the fundamentals, potential regulation and a little bit slower retail activity but i actually think that's much
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less i think the biggest driver of the stock decline recently has been more technical. when they went public, there were only 70 million shares in the float. and from the end of october to the beginning of december, essentially all of the additional shares, about 800 million shares that are in the float that could be traded, and you have a lot of potential selling pressure from that because you had investors that invested in the company as a private company, you know, 2017 it was a billion-dollar company. they raised capital at the beginning of this year at less than $12 billion so you have a $16 billion market cap today, which is still significantly up from where a lot of the private investors put money in i think that there's just been some selling pressure from that. the reality of the fundamentals have not changed very much relative to what we've been thinking the first half of this year was really special, it wasn't something that we're expecting to continue every quarter, but we think the fundamentals are actually still quite strong here. we think there's a lot to come
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2022 i think it's distinguishing between the technical pressure and why the stock's going down, which is who are than, i think, fundamental issues >> what does it tell you when the revenue drops 40% quarter on quarter? >> well, i think what it says is we're in the first inning of robinhood's journey here they have already amassed over 22 million customers but the brokerage business is inherently volatile, which is today the biggest driver of the revenue, but as you think out over the next couple of years they are adding so many other features and revenue drivers to this business model. and i think that's the big picture. they want to become the single money app. i think they are in a position to be one of the leading players in that, you know, in that framework i think that it's not a winner-take-all market, there will be others but trading can be volatile quarter to quarter and third quarter, and i think the fourth quarter is going to be better. and then they head into 2022 with a bunch of new products and
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features that they're launching, which are going to drive incremental revenue opportunities. and i think there's a lot also that's going to come here that they're not showing their hand on they tend to put products out, and then their competitors copy them so i think they're being pretty careful about what they're telling street so there's a lot more to come here. >> but if you're buying robinhood on your $58 price target, are you buying today's business model or a yet-to-be-disclosed business model of the future? >> i think you're buying the future as you are with any growth stock that you're looking at in the market you have to be able to think about what's the market and what is their opportunity to compete in that. and we think robinhood has a number of areas of differentiation. they have a huge balance sheet that i think they're going to do acquisitions over the next year, and as i just mentioned they are going to roll out new products so, that's really what it's about that they have to be able to deliver other products and services that really their customers want to use, which i
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think there's evidence around that they're doing very well in cash management their ipo access product is seeing traction. we think that on the crypto side they've already seen some very early signs of progress on the crypto wallet. and i think some of the other things that are going to come on that front this is going beyond just trading. we think that they may have nfts and a number of other features like that, which no one's really talking about right now. so, right now everyone's focused on the third quarter that's the last fundamental data point we have. then the stock's gone down not just because of that but because of all these other technical factors. so i don't think it's going to take much for it to go up quite a bit from here. >> well, again, they were part of the story of the year, but the stock has not benefitted 2022, we'll see if it's different. devin, thanks for your time today. still ahead, tesla is about to snap a six-month winning streak the company recalling nearly half a million cars. we'll tell you which ones and why. my next guest works with some of the biggest restaurants
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to deliver tech and data what sets apart the winners from the losers, in a moment.
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welcome back to "the exchange," everybody dow's given up most of its gains. it was up 191 earlier in the session. but if we can stay in the green today and tomorrow, that would be an eight-day win streak to close out the year, the longest since 1991 the nasdaq up half a percent its debut day for sir richard branson's virgin orbit after merging with the spac. look at this they raised less than half their target of nearly $500 million. needed a last-minute cash injection from branson's virgin group just to get the deal done.
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tepid reaction from investors today. they're trying to turn positive now. it's trading around nine bucks meanwhile, lumber futures are having their best month since april. we're only down 30% from the highs back in may. and we are still well above pre-pandemic levels. here's a quick look at lumber up 40% this month and shares of biogen coming back to earth after samsung said not so fast, denying it was in reports to buy it. it's down 8% today now to rahel solomon for our cnbc news update >> here's what's happening at this hour. new york's attorney general claiming a victory in her fight against opioid abuse after a jury found teva pharmaceutical helped fuel opioid addiction across the state teva shares are down more than 4% on the years. nearly a quarter of nba coaches now sidelined by the league's health and safetiy protocols.
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doc rivers and michael malone the latest to join the list which now includes seven coaches. 120 players are also currently in the protocols kids meantime are being hospitalized with covid in near record numbers as omicron continues to spread. an average of 334 children per day were admitted to hospitals with covid that is a 58% increase from the previous week. and tonight on "the news," omicron's impact on everything from air travel and cruises to working out at a local gym that's tonight at 7:00 eastern kelly, i'll send it back to you. >> the impact on everything, rahel, right everywhere you turn, everyone you know, everywhere you look, everything you try to do anyway, thank you, it's good to be back. chipmaker, and the return of the buybacks who do they benefit, who are they really for? we'll dig into all of that in ap fe. "the exchange" is back right after this (soft music)
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welcome back, everybody. let's catch you up on a couple stories that should be firmly on your radar it's time for "rapid fire. here to break down today's headlines, our own bob pisani, seema mody, and david wagner, who's jumping in the pool with us
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welcome, everybody and our first topic is tesla's recall today nearly half a million of the model 3s and model s vehicles because of issueswith the rear view cameras and trunks. tesla says it's not aware of any crashes or injuries related to the issue. it's recalling them out of an abundance of caution remember they also recalled 100,000 vehicles last winter over issues with the touchscreen. shares are basically flat today. they're up 40% over the past three months and despite the recalls it had a great year they're up more than 50% year-to-date bob, i'll go to you here i think the real story is that tesla is basically cooperating with regulators on its full self-driving and other much more important software advances. and i'm not sure this recall really matters >> i agree with you. on the surface it looks kind of scary, 25% of all deliveries holy mackerel. that seems like an awful lot and it is. but it's pretty minor if you look at it what they're talking about here a faulty cable in the backup camera, a faulty front trunk
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latch? i don't think this is going to do anything to dent enthusiasm for tesla. so i'm in line with what you're thinking >> seema, what would you add it feels like every story where tesla says out of an abundance of caution, it really feels like it's all about the company saying we are putting safety first, we're not cutting any corners. so if you're worried about what people are doing with fsd data 10 and 11, this whole thing is above board. >> yeah. and our production recall's inevitable for a company like tesla that is fast-growing, a leader in the electric vehicle space, it has competition rising every single day this is just part of the broader story of getting more products to market. i wonder if this is just part of the game and you have web bush securities raising its price target on tesla, i think around $1,400 a share, referencing the fact that this is a company that navigated the chip shortage better than other auto companies this year >> david, are you a tesla shareholder? >> yes, we are a tesla
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shareholder. bob, you actually took my favorite number, and this is the only thing that really stuck out to me is they recalled nearly 25% of their deliverables since 2014 i would echo everything that you guys have said these are minor defects and should not curb the sentiment from consumers particularly purchasing the model 3 and the model s. i agree with the market's reaction being somewhat muted. >> back up at a thousand, almost $1,000, back over a trillion-dollar market cap david, what would you say is tesla's potential next year after the kind of year it's had? >> yeah, you know, given our expectations for interest rates next year, we're really kind of staying away from some of the high-flyer, highly valued stocks and tesla's definitely in that camp right there so we're probably pairing back some of our ownership here after its run of 50 plus percent in the last year. >> but would that have been a losing strategy for the last, you know, 15 years >> no, it wouldn't have.
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>> why is next year definitely going to be the year that interest rates go up >> yeah, we saw kind of the playbook in 2013 that once the fed began their actual tapering, we saw real interest rates rise from maybe negative 80 basis points to about positive 1%. and we know historically looking back when you get that velocity, that rise in interest rates, it definitely hurts those stocks with higher valuations >> that said the 10-year's up this year and so are tesla shares >> you got me there, kelly [ laughter ] the retail investor has been a tough burden to fight. >> i'm enjoying your presence here, david, which is why i'm crossing swords with you a little bit we'll move on and talk about share buybacks which are poised to set a record according to the s&p 500. it's a huge win for the stock market overall a lot of people were concerned that they wouldn't see their return for years it could also catch the ire of politicians. you've been look at who's been benefitting from these purchases. and what are you finding >> i have very mixed feelings
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about buy backs. they're at a record this year, 850 million. the old record was 206 billion or so way back in 2018 so that's the good news. here's the problem i have with buy-backs. who care it's it doesn't reduce the share count. reduce the share count, you improve the earnings per share that's the whole name of the game here. so the important thing is some companies are reducing their share counts, you know recently. so apple's been reducing its share count, alphabet, oracle's been reducing its share count recently but not everybody so a lot of companies are either not doing any buy-backs or increasing their share count tesla, for example, has been increasing their share count recently nvidia's been increasing their share count. overall the s&p 500, the shares have been increasing recently. they're bigger than they were three years ago. the total shares outstanding in the s&p. and the reason this is happening and there are two reasons. one, the buybacks are being replaced with more options that people are exercising so it's a giant hamster wheel.
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and the second is the stock market's a lot higher than it was a couple years ago so buying a million dollars worth of stock back doesn't get you nearly as much as a couple of years ago so, i'm of two minds about this. i see a lot of companies trying to buy back stock but doesn't make a difference because they keep replacing it with options and as a result there's a lot of outrage about this on wall street not wall street but down in washington there's talk of a 1% excised tax on that. that's in the build back better program. but it hasn't gone anywhere. so i think this is going to be controversial in 2022. >> david, what would you add as a shareholder? >> you know, one thing i'm really focused on, because bob had a great piece this morning if anyone hasn't read it yet, it's awesome but i think that banks and energy are going to be the incremental share buybacks really taking 2022 to a new record after 2021. if you just look at a lot of the industries that haven't had concrete capital allocation policies over the past few years, specifically banks, we all know that the federal reserve basically capped them from doing any type of capital allocation policies until june
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30th so we're definitely going to see increased activity there in banks. but i think the real big differentiator isgoing to be i the emp space. rarely bought back shares. historically they've put all their free cash flow back into the ground here. but now you're seeing these major things take a more prudent approach to dividends and buybacks to a point where they're paying out 55 to 70% of their cash flow. i think these are going to be driving the overall share of buybacks moving forward in the market and the method they're buying back aren't miniscule amounts. >> you're absolutely right >> this is a lazy way to deploy capital. you're telling me the biggest most powerful technology companies are saying the best way they can deploy their capital is to buy back their stock versus investing it in innovation i think there this raises an argument about whether this is actually a sign of concern >> yeah, or decay, decadence or whatever we want to call it.
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they seem afraid to put too much cap x into, like, traditional oil and gas because, like, i don't know, it could be going away >> absolutely. >> all right we'll leave it there >> kelly, warren buffet used to be in favor of buybacks. he used to say i'm in favor of them, providing you can buy them back at a reasonable price, below intrinsic value. the problem today is none of them are doing that. this is just mechanically buying back stock at the highs. so i don't know if warren buffet would be delighted about this. >> we can go company by company, but i take your point, it's been indiscriminate, and that's probably the bigger concern. all right, let's move along and talk about samsung and micron warning about more covid lockdowns in china that could further hinder chip production micron in a blog post is warning that additional restrictions by local governments may be increasingly difficult to mitigate their shares are falling today, but semis have been booming this year with the shortage i have not been able to keep up with what's going on across asia in terms of the spread of covid and the reaction
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can you tell us what is going on there? >> it seems like there's one major city xi'an that is locking down because of a rise in covid cases and this is where there are chip facilities. i think in we take a step back, this is also a reminder that despite efforts by this administration and the private sector to diversify their footprint away from china to other countries like vietnam and india and also bring some of that manufacturing here to the u.s., a bunch of press eleases on that this year. it takes time building these facilities, getting the quality, the talent up to speed, and clearly here one city is locking down and two major companies are feeling it >> bob, what would you add >> well, look at the differences how the world is diverging in their policy response. china's policy response to omicron, they go into a quasilockdown. that's what's going on here.
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the united states' response to omicron, we shorten the quarantine time. we do exactly the opposite think about that how crazy that is there's not a universal -- >> here we are in 2021, almost '22, and we still have part of the world that pursues an elimination strategy and the other part of the world that's basically just kind of saying, all right, just bring on herd immunity it's incredibly that we still don't know how to deal with this spread >> and the problem now is what we don't know is whether what micron and samsung are saying is actually going to result in significant supply chain disruptions. and that's what i care about because, remember, this whole bull scenario is based on the idea that we're going to get the supply chain disruptions under control in the first half. if this goes into the second half of the year, forget about it, the scenario, the narrative changes. so that's why what happens here is kind of important >> david, quick last word on
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this >> you guys are hitting the nail on the head right now. the question is does china really continue with their zero covid policy you know, if they do, it's a huge risk to the supply chain. the offset of that, though, is they may have to -- it may prove to be more difficult having this policy in china. it could be a moot point here in one week or two weeks if china really decides to actually give up on that policy. and that would be a huge win for supply chains. >> you're right, probably the most important thing to watch for the first quarter of the year well, staying in china for just a moment, shares of didi are popping today to nearly recoup yesterday's drop a loss of nearly $5 billion that they attributed to the regulatory crackdown in china. the stock, it's been such a tough year, it's been down more than 30% they've announced plans to delist from the new york stock exchange they only debuted six months ago. seema, what should we be watching here? >> enormous pressure on a company like didi. i think what was interesting with today's report is the first
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time investors really got a precise look at how china's ongoing regulatory pressures are impacting its bottom line and its cash reserves. hard to say what happens here as they look to delist. but trading at $5, does this make it attractive to anyone we'll have to see. >> david, attractive to you? >> not so much i think that these results really showed us that it's really that many investors have really underestimated that impact of the regulatory reform from china and that didi's disclosure of these losses might be a benchmark for investors moving forward i don't think that we ultimately know the end-all-be-all costs associated with this regulation. i think spending rose by, like, 16% during the quarter just because they had to better compensate their drivers and improve data governance. >> and that's certainly something we've seen business models here as well. guys, we'll have to leave it there. thank you so much today. still ahead, omicron and inflation wreaking havoc on businesses large and small
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we'll talk to the ceo of a platform looking to digitize operations to keep workers safe and ktoeep shelves stocked. we're back in a moment
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it's been a horrible few years to be a restaurant, or has it we tackle how the industry has been dealing with the triple threat of inflation, labor shortages and supply chain issues, next and subscribe to our podcast. you can now catch the show any time anywhere, search cnbcthe exchange podcast on any platform and be sure to check out my new podcast. you can find it wherever you get your podcasts. we're back in a moment
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to be brave. to show up. for staying connected. the questions they weren't able to ask. show up for the first day of school, the last day at their current address. for the mornings when everything's wrong. for the manicure that makes everything right, for right now. show up, however you can, for the foster kids who need it most— at helpfosterchildren.com material costs through the roof, no one available to work, supply chain snarls, now the rapid spread of omicron threatens to shut down stores and restaurants at any moment. tech is trying to solve some of these problems and my next guest platform helps automate everyday tasks and counts domino's, chipotle, and sweetgreen it's great to have you
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so give me an example of how xenput helps solve some of those issues >> the most important thing tha we're hearing from our kmirs isy have got to find the way to either automate the data work that gets done by individuals and get as much out of them as they can on a regular basis. it is a matter of using phones and tablets about supply chain issues popping up, jobs popping up, on a shift that's open and also how they deal with the physical climate, remote temperature monitoring to help them deal with the fact that they can't run around an hour every day czeching temperatures in the refrigerator. >> that would be specific to restaurants. primarily, you are software. what else do you help solve?
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if we take something like the labor shortage, are you saying you can save time on things like routine temperature checks and free up some of that time for other tasks. what are other things bottlenecking restaurants right now. >> the routine side can be four or five or six hours a day that they are running through checks on a regular basis s and then all of a sudden an hour before your rush opens up you get a call from a team member who says i can't come in. what we are seeing is a navigation towards let's buy technology to remove the day-to-day procedures and also plan for things happening down the line f. we go to change and we no longer get the type of produce we are expecting you have got to tell that to 150 location, change the menu up, be creative in the things that you are offering on a regular basis we deal with the day-to-day activities that
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are happening in the store and also on the food management side, what are we prepping how much to we have? what does it do to the menu mix moving forward >> does inputting zen put also take up time i think of business owners, even a lot of us in white collar jobs, we are dealing with the dealing with the dealing of the software we have to deal is itself a hassle and annoying. >> at some point we would love to get to a state where robotics can replace some of these things but it removes 70 to 80% of the work you are typically doing and you are getting it done in 20 to 30% of the time. so there is a biglift for the individuals. you see, if you look at the fed announced this a couple weeks ago but the numbers for even high school students today being employed is the best we have seen in the last few years these kids that are coming in in
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the new generation expect technology to be in place. they are used to using their phones to communicate with everything they do on the consumer side. naturally, the drive for them is that they want to want come into an environment in of technology in their job. >> young people can use technology, expect to use technology that can drive change at the restaurant, then it is a harmonious situation last thing, what would you say is separating the pandemic winners from the losers? the use of technology, probably most emblematic case study being chipotle >> i think there is two fronts on this, the first is exactly what you said on the technology side, what are you doing to make your people better, faster, smarter on a regular basis last, how do you think about your brand and business moving forward? wing stop said chicken wing are too expensive, and then they
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started ordering whole chickens. chipotle is coming out with seasonal products that are more interesting, based on what they can use from the supply chain to drive their business forward and you are seeing the way that they build their stores change on the way we want to pick up as consumers or eat so you are seeing innovation from the brands and what they can do, they are sticking out the most and performing well moving forward. >> necessity is the mother of invention. consumers like it. give us a thigh, give us something new at chipotle. it can be a win/win. still ahead, after falling this year, personal bankruptcies could come roaring back in 2022. if science and the junk market are to be belief believed. next. the ceo of jetblue will be joining "closing bell" today to talk about their recent cancellations. an exclusive interview at 3:00 p.m. eastern today as all the
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welcome back, everybody. commercial and personal bankruptcies sank this year, but 2022 could be very different leslie picker is here now with that story, and a sector to watch closely. leslie >> kelly, the number of consumer and business bankruptcy filings is on pace this year to be the lowest annual amount going back to 1985 and may record even fewer than that year for the first 11 months of the year, there were just over 373,000 total bankruptcies, the low figure can be attributed to a number of macro factors, including covid-related stimulus, lender forbearances and low interest rates looking ahead to next year, there likely will be no more pandemic relief. plus inflation and higher interest rates will be sources of economic head winds for consumers and business as american bankruptcy institute
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director says. according to reuter's, the proportion of u.s. loans trading below 80% of face value, an indicator of likely default was just over 1% in november that's according to an index compiled by s&p glebl's leveraged a commentary and data unit n. junk bond prices gained in december looking to recoup losses in november with yields of 4 or 5% right now as we reflect back on 2021 we can't forget the impact retail investors had on reviving troubled businesses like hertz and amc. >> yeah, it's sort of like is all of this -- did we suspend? even with student loans, on one hand, this wave is going to come due. on the other hand, nope, six more months, nothing is going to happen. >> it propped up consumers and businesses that a people would argue would have caught
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bankruptcy protection in 2021. once those benefits go away in 2022 i think we will really see kind the true sense what have these businesses are facing. >> absolutely leslie we appreciate it less low picker reporting. that does it for "the exchange," everybody. thank you for your time, i will be joining frank holland for "power lunch," which starts right now. ♪ thanks a lot, kelly and welcome to "power lunch. i'm frank holland. here's what's ahead on the show. russia risk. president biden and putt continue to speak this afternoon amid heightened tensions over ukraine. at stake the natural gas market and potential for higher prices. forget faang, there is a new basket of stocks to watch in 2022 we will talk to the investors who is betting on a new acronym. 2021 was a record year for ipos but there were many disasters, which are still worth owning we will tell y

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