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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  January 4, 2022 5:00pm-6:00pm EST

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expectations, that it seems like people were not out of tlv skies with aggressive expectations and so far the market benefiting for that >> could it be the year of the dow outperform and it's done first two trading days of the year closing at a record close as the other two indices decline. we are out of time for "the closing bell." fast money starts now. >> it ramps up production of the f-150 lightning pickup we'll pick up how traders are breaking down the move peloton plunging 4%, and the stock on the verge of erasing all of the pandemic gains and we'll tell you what had investors unhooking from this trade and later a new stock from the new year and one of the traders is taking them out with a fast pitch why this retailer is set to soar welcome to fast money.
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i'm melissa lee, guy adami, tim seymour, karen finerman. >> in with the old and just check out the action in today's trade. newcomer, affirm taking 10% while century-old j.p. morgan rallying four. poshmark 7%, macy's adding 2.5% and that trend playing out across sectors as rates rally and the ten-year treasury yield up 30 basis points in just ten days is this the same-old, same-old high-valuation stocks or is there more to the story this time around? dan nathan, what do you say? >> mel, we saw this earlier in the year or last year in the very beginning of the year when rates started rallying and you had names that you had up there had huge 2020s and they gave a lot back in early '21. investors were revaluing some of the growth stories assuming that
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they would see decelerating growth on the other side of the pandemic and the interesting thing is things got incrementally better with the vaccines and certain parts of the economy opening fairly fully in 2021, but a lot of those stocks kept on going lower and when you look at some of the drops and you had square there that stock had dropped 30% before today's drop. to me what i think is interesting that this is the similar action that we saw in early 2021 we saw rates rise and the real focus is how much rates we're going go up. at this rate we know it topped out, and the ten-year at 1.77. we are not far from that, and there doesn't seem to be a whole heck of a lot to know that the ten-year is going much higher very soon. >> if rates are capped let's just say they test the 177 level and they're about. karen, does that mean that high valuation names trade better or is this part of a valuation reckoning and are investors turning away from these names
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and looking at value at this point? >> i think you're right. i think this is sort of a reckoning because last year, when dan talked about it the same time, the fed was very much there and there was no discussion of when they would taper and when they would raise and now that is very much on the table and that is the expected outcome in the short term. so i think even if rates go a little bit higher and stop there, one could make the case that those support high multiples and the idea of the sent ement and the fed being there for us, enif that's not there anymore. also the divergence within the highfliers, which almost lost any gravitational pill today values, the low p-es and they had a lot of convergence left to go so there's a lot more to this rotation than you're seeing right now, tim where would you go
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>> before we discount the fact she shouldn't, and that uptrend from august 2020 is still very much alive with the ten-year and if anything it tells you it's put in a lot of hard work to test well through 17, probably 190. let's go to mastercard it trades to a multiple around 20 times next 12 months and that's five or six turns cheaper to where it was pre-covid. the tick or square, block, whatever we're calling it is still not something that makes sense. the fact that you're going to see a lot more activity in crypto and block chain i don't think anyone really questions at this point whether that will intermediate and essentially box out mastercard, i would highly, highly doubt in facts, i think mastercard and vi visa will be there for the long term for things done in crypto it's a case where people are
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evaluating whether these new economy stocks are really worth paying the multiple for it >> it's a combination that rates are putting in the work that they're supposed to do and remember where we were going into covid and roughly where rates should normalize that and it's a case where there's a little bit of bulk going on. do i think valuations matter significantly, but i also think you can't be an old economy stock without being around and having evolved into the new economy. so whether you're a financial institution obviously you're involved in thin tech and if you're a retailer, this isn't about e-commerce plays and if you're a macy's or days of yore that reinvented themselves, think, they have and that's really the story here. i think a lot of these legacy businesses have evolved and it just hasn't been as sexy on the front line. >> we were saying old stocks and we use that in quotes. these older businesses are
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finding ways to be more digitally forward and the john line strategy is working and j.p. morgan and other financials are looking for ways to become more thin techie and so as part of this just getting recognized which was undervalued previously. >> they've been forced to, right? for good reason and now they're being recognized because of everything the guys and gals have said because the market is concerned about valuation for the first time in a long time. it's interesting all of those fun sayings in the market, sell in may and go away. things that i'm loathed to say because it just makes me squeamish, like, wins, but there is one, don't fight the fed which i tend not to say either, but if it's true and it's a mantra, david tepper talks about it all of the time typically, you don't fight the fed when adding liquidity in the system and if that mantra is true, when they're easing shouldn't it necessarily be true when they're tightening?
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i think that's what you're seeing in these high-growth, high valuation names. >> they're arguing that the tightening won't impact valuation too much unless rates go considerably higher from here so if i were to tell you, dan -- >> which what? >> guy >> which i think they are, by the way. >> i thought that for a while and correctly. i'll stand by it ten years will have a beeline to 2% >> 2%. show of hands. 2% rates on the ten-year, will that mean that stocks pull back? general? raise your hand. >> by when >> i'm just trying to figure out is 2% the line in the sand if i were to say, dan nathan, right now that rates hold 1.7 and go not a basis point higher what do stocks do? how does that change your investment strategy? >> i think what these guys are also hinting at is that the fed has painted themes in a corner i think we agree this this taper is coming way too late here and
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we're talking about and debating about where rates are in the ten-year and investors are taking the two-year and where they think it should be here and the notion that we'll be done with the taper fairly soon they're not going to change the course on that, but the idea that we'll have three rate hikes in 2022, ei don't know, man. you can look at the fedtracker and look at the probabilities of that and there are so many curveballs and we know what fed chair powell had to do in late 2000 and '18 after they were raising rates a quarter-point cut and every other meeting and we had a fed funds above 2.5% and the stock went down 20% in the straight line and they got dovish i just look at what went on in the stock market today there are real companies and real market cap that got taken off because of valuation i'll pin toint to one in partic and that's shopify and it relates to what you guys are talking about as it relates to thin tech and innovative
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companies changing we spent so much time talking about am one in the last 15 years and shopify lost 10% today. it was already down 20-some percent into today and so that's investors saying okay, we were at 30 times last year's sales, we're a company with $125 billion market cap that makes no sense and there you go they re-rate it and that's what's going on i think all over the market and then there are the ones that we spent way too much time on the twitter, the snapchat and the pinterest all made 52-week lows today they're all down 30-something percent from the 2021 highs. there's stuff going on in the stock market that investors who buy stocks were not passive investors, better pay attention to we're all a bit older and grayer we remember how things come unravelled and this is one way it does. >> karen, on the call you were saying this reminds you of 2000? >> we had the internet bubble burst in 2000.
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so you had all of these highfliers and people just couldn't get out fast enough so they would fall every single day a lot and then you had names that were allstate insurance or things that were just boring, old companies that traded at low p-es and that's where you wanted to be and so this reminds me of that so you know, we brought up j.p. morgan i think of j.p. morgan versus newbank when they went public. new bank was 10% of the value of j.p. morgan. i found that absolutely astonishing. we talk a lot about square and pay paypal and they want to take over and be your bank and be your everything. are they be your bank and trade at a bank multiple that chasm was so wide and most of that, if it does converge will come from the highfliers coming down because even though things are down a lot, a firm is down a lot it's not super cheap. i would look at something like
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bank of america and say it's pretty cheap a lot of these companies are companies for the future and maybe they had traded where they had traded before. so are there any, tim, right now that we have on your list sort of keeping an eye on if it gets low enough you might pick it up? >> look. i like pallantir i own draft kings and karen talks about zillo. these are stories that for different reasons got tweaked significantly hire i just think we'll have a fascinating conversation with paul later in the show think about these carbon footprint oil companies that are going to be carbon neutral in 15 years, and just the world is changing, and i just think we are re-assessing whether flagship companies who already have brands and who have infrastructure and distribution and logistics, they're worth a lot and there's no reason why they shouldn't be making some of these adjustments and again, you have the extremes on all sides and what we talked about was roku versus via com.
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karen's via com, by the way. it's a case where viacom and roku on a daily basis, 104 times roku and six and a half times for viacom we know viacom has their problems, but at the end of the day they have content and have distribution they are showing that there's an evolution into a streaming model and i think this is something that investors as well as customers are evaluating almost simultaneously. >> we have a news alert here on beyond meat, jumping in the after hours. kate rogers has the story. kate >> hey, melissa, we just reported beyond meat, its stock up 6% on news that kfc will be rolling out beyond meat fried chicken breast nationwide and this comes after several years of tests that were successful for those two brands and i spoke with beyond ceo and kfc's president who both expressed confidence about the upcoming launch this is going to be available
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for a limb ited time at 4,000 locations nation wise. pizza hut, taco bell and kfc beyond meat brought two tyson execs in december in coo and chief supply officer roles ahead of those expected launches across those brands in 2022. the brand is up 30%. chip chipotle added a plant-based procedure for this anticipated product launch back to you. >> it is interesting that they say that this is a substitute for chicken breast the breast meat has a very specific texture as opposed to a nugget which is amorphous sort of glob of protein any insight on how that would be texture wise >> it's more of of a whole muscle product as more of a ground meat type of substitute
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which is beyond sells in grocery stores this is a kfc-specific product and they did test this over the past few years one of the tests sold out in about five hours in atlanta and they've been tweaking this recipe in the last few years and both execs sounding conflict. >> muscle mimicking doesn't sound appetizing, but i'll take your word for it >> kate rogers, with the latest on that. >> guy adami, big news as it inks up more deals here. >> 15-year anniversary coming up and that's the first time we talked about, what did you say amorphous chicken nuggets. >> i couldn't think of the consistency. [ laughter ] >> oh, my goodness gracious! i mrean, if i wasn't nauseous before i am now, sister. how do you trade the stock nobody cares what i think about beyond meat's chicken breast look what it just traded down to we basically traded down and touched the march 2020 lows and
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the bounce if you're looking at a textbook double bottom and beyond meat, not that it matters in early march. >> coming up, new year energy. oil coming off of a blowout year, but can crude continue its climb? our next guest is laying out his top plays in the space, but first, ford fired up it's double production the electric pickup truck. we're breaking down that trade when "fast money" returns. including the iphone 13 pro with 5g. that's the one with the amazing camera? yep! every business deserves it... like ones that re-opened! hi, we have an appointment. and every new business that just opened! like aromatherapy rugs! i'll take one in blue please! it's not complicated. at&t is giving new and existing customers our best deals on every iphone, including up to $1000 off the epic iphone 13 pro. what happens if you ever need to miss work for a long period of time? why would i miss work? i don't know.
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with no line-activation fees or term contract required. see if you can save by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities. welcome back to "fast money," shares of ford speeding higher after the company announced plans of double production of the f-150 lightning truck. let's get to phil lebeau with all of the details >> melissa, a heck of a day for ford and it's not surprising when the company intimated about a month ago, jim farley told our jim cramer yeah, we'll see if we can double a production. it was not a surprise that today they said we will do it. here's the plan when it comes to electric vehicle production specifically around the f-150 lightning. the company will start building and we should see deliveries starting in the first half of this year. the production plan has almost doubled. they plan to build 150,000 annually by 2023 they'll not get to 150,000 right
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away, but they plan to get there by 2023, and by the way, this week they are saying if you have a reservation for a lightning you can convert that over to an official order speaking of those reservations they now top 200,000 last month and now they're saying if you have one of those orders or reservations you can convert it to an order and in the last year up 170,000 it's all about the evs and here's the reason why. look at the growth of evs that's expected through 2025 and this year it's expected to be 25% of the market by 2025 according to lmc automotive and they should be 20% of the market all of this comes on a day when you look at traditional auto sales. overall auto sales in the u.s. and a changing of the guard. you can make a point and say, well, look because of the chip crisis, gm's production was restricted and this is the first year that general motors is
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not -- not number one in annual auto sales in the united states. the first time since 93 years ago toyota edges them out by 100,000 vehicles ford general motors, however, another stock where the stock moved higher and it is now at an all-time high since the ipo since it came out of bankruptcy. the company's sales down 4.9% and that's better than many expected and the commentary during the sales call, fairly optimistic about the situation improving. for general motors, the focus at least conveying it to investors right now is about electric vehicles and tomorrow it will show the f-150 -- i'm sorry, excuse me, the chevy silverado electric vehicle so the chevy silverado ev will be unveiled tomorrow we will talk with gm's ceo mary barra during "power lunch. you don't want to miss what she has to say we'll talk about not only the
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silverado ev, the importance of them trying to get some momentum here because the f-150 lightning has all of the momentum in terms of the perception of electric pickup trucks out there and finally this note, melissa we just got the final tally in terms of auto sales in the u.s. this year, 15.1 million according to auto data and they crunched the numbers as they always do. that is the weakest annual auto sales in the united states since 2012 back to you. >> the silverado is gm's top-selling vehicle. >> yeah. >> i wonder how you think the unveil of this vehicle on the week when people can convert the reservations for the lightning f-150 starts if people might be hesitant to convert the reservations into orders upon seeing the competing truck? >> i don't think so, and here's the reason why generally speaking, pickup truck buyers are extremely brand loyal, and that's not to say that everybody who is buying an f-150 lightning is only a ford
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buyer. in other words, it's someone who has always driven an f-150 and wants to buy an electric version of that. there are certainly people of other brands that have said i'll take an f-150, but when you look at the silverado versus the f-150, their core customer attraction, it's going to be the people who are already loyal to those brands so i think you're going to see the silverado ev rack up quite a bit of reservations and i don't think it will do as well as the f-150 and i think there will be a lot of chevy people out there who will say let me see this, if they like it they'll place a reservation for it >> phil, thanks. >> phil lebeau >> guy adami, the ultimate would you rather, ford or gm at this point? >> listen, i thank tim. >> he was early and right on ford i got on that bus and it is a math problem and you throw a 12 multiple and here we are at 24
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bucks. i still think ford's got room. i think it will continue to get re-rated and i think it will continue to go up. would you rather, ford over gm >> it's a fast money classic as we embark on our 15th anniversary here karen, you like gm what does mary barra have to tell you to make you more confident about the story? >> well, i think the truck needs to wow this is sort of a make or break moment for mary barra. obviously, she has staked her entire administration and entire tenure there on this evolution to evs and we have a tiny taste of of ththis and what they're g to do with the bolt and the hummer this is a very, very big launch. it is very important to her and very important to gm we'll have to see how the orders come in. i know it's not going to be in production until later, so it's a very important moment. i still think it's at an
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all-time high post bankruptcy. it's astounding. >> to think that rivian and gm are about the same market cap and rivian has produced how many vehicles compared to gm is astounding in and of itself. dan, i'm curious because you are known to put reservations down on new vehicles not yet produced are you inclined to do so? >> no. i got rid of my ford mustang mach a couple of weeks ago here's the thing about the electric, the standard battery pack has a 230-mile range and this is a big truck and users of those trucks might be hauling stuff and they're using air conditioning and they might be using the radio and when you take into account that will take up 10% to 20%. i think you will have a disappointing scenario in my personal opinion relative to where the stocks are you may have seen the activity with all of these orders and
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when the early reviews come out for people who are really using these trucks rather than guy going to the blockbuster or the grocery store, whatever the heck he's doing with his truck, you understand what i'm saying i just think it's not going to be the heavy truck that i think he is is my personal view. >> we are just getting started on fast money. here's what's coming up next. new year, old energy crude closing out a monster year, but can the gains keep pumping in we are trading the top plays in the space next, it's about to be a fast-pitch, we are looking back at some of the traders' top calls and tim is winding up for the first pitch of the new year. there's much more "fast money kw" coming up. " coming up.
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welcome back to "fast money. take a look at market action opec boosts production by 400,000 barrels a day de, with paul sanky, lead analyst at sanky research paul, great to have you with us. >> hi, melissa, happy new year of course you'd be the lead analyst. paul, you think oil can go 80 to 120. 120 is the magic number all of the way up to 12 to? >> around that level we're basically talking about a new range for oil because demand is so strong not withstanding the fact that we're bricking into the $80 in the lower end of the range. and we're experiencing the low in 2020 where we averaged just 40 for that dreadful year of covid, before covid. >> so what kind of oil company
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given last year's tremendous gains and where oil is headed this year, i should say. at least where you're forecasting and heading. what kind of the oil patch do you have the best. which has the most leverage? >> my goodness, it was a tough journey getting to the lows. so we're talking about the small numbers here with the improvement we saw last year we were one of the best performing sector in the market and i'm hopeful that we can do it again this year and it looks good for all of them basically because demand is strong without jet fuel being back to full blast. at the moment we have all-time record u.s. gasoline demand for the time of year and we've just come off the phone with the coo of marathon with the annual refining conference, marathon petroleum. we have three or four major refiners left in the u.s. and all-time record gasoline demand.
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we've got absolutely the potential for even more demand this year on a very consolidated sector for example, marathon petroleum with $40 million market cap can buy back 20 billion worth of stock this year, and i've been listening on the evs and there's too much market cap. our trade is long empty sea marathon petroleum >> hey, paul, it's tim so that certainly micakes a loto sense with the discussion and i agree with you there i want to talk about how the energy equities are outperforming the price of the price of the underlining and we're seeing underperformance in services and it's not a linear relationship you're talking to the smartest oil investors in the world this year >> it's quite a few of them have declared energy as the best performing sector of the coming year and that is with 2022, and it's not a linear relationship
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basically because you get up to these levels it's all free cash flow and free cash flow yield and if you believe in the capital discipline, you're just exploding the cash return levels here and that's why i think the sector can go up 20, 25, 30% at the moment if you look at chevron and exxon, i had the cash flow yield stocks in the s&p and we're talking here about ten to 15% free cash flow yields and more like a 60 to $65 range. >> every dollar above that is pure, additional juice and we've had exxon end the year with a positive profit outlook of q4. so i think all of the eps numbers are going up and we're seeing some of these stored stocks with no cash return behind them are becoming with a rising interest rate environment? >> a long marathon, short rivian and we'll keep you honest, thanks for joining us.
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good to see you. >> paul sanky, sanctiony research are you with paul on that trade, guy? >> yes i incorrectly thought oil would be triple digits by the end of last year, 2021, and that obviously didn't happen. i think it's bound to happen and it will happen early this year and mpc, marathon petroleum is at $4 per share and he mentioned how pristine the balance sheet is and the ability to buy back stocks so i think there is a real good chance that the stock gets out in 2018 of $85 or so i can't speak on the rivian side of things and i'm with him on the opc long >> o is the o in zombie. >> right yes. >> it was just energy exposure i know you didn't ask me about his trade and i really like it for two reasons. one, we've seen pendulums swing
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too far, right the oil pendulum swung way too far and we're only heading back and it's nowhere near back and we can see the pendulum swing the other way and the pendulum swung way too far out of the gate so if the pendulum swings back, that would be a great trade. coming up, a peloton plunge. shares of the pandemic winner now 80% off their all-time high. what is next for the stock get ready for the fast pitch, our tim seymour is getting ready to throw some heat and we'll get updates on the traders' calls. the pitch progress reports are next. get your trades to go with a fast money podcast catch us any time, anywhere, follow today on your favorite podcasting app we're back right after this. at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will help you create a comprehensive wealth plan for your full financial picture. with the right balance of risk and reward. so you can enjoy more of...this.
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welcome back new year, new stock picks. tim seymour brought us names and we thought this would be a perfect time to update you on fast pitches from the previous year karen pitched realreal you actually addedto this
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position since >> yes timing, timing, timing is everything thanks for bringing up a not so good one, but i have been adding to it. i still like it. the story is evolving as i hoped they would and the stock is not. we have a chart of some of the other comps which would be rent the runway which was an ipo a couple of months ago and poshmark and the giant among a disappointing crowd of not so giants, but to their own story is that they've been doing a lot of the right things, right they have rationalized their cost which is an excellent thing so they've also added stores which is creating an ecosystem so people go to those local stores, become buyers and it's an efficient way to grow the business and that's been a good thing. they hired a new cfo and they need to start to approach profitability now. it's time already. so i'm hoping by the end of this
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year that they will be able to do that. it's really not super expensive at two and change times earnings and we'll see them increase their margins because they'll be charging higher fees and i love the sustainability element of it so for all of those reasons i am still long and more long in terms of shares, less long in terms of dollars because obviously the stock's traded down >> next up, guy. guy stepped up to the mound and pitched fedex, and the name is up 3% since that pitch what's your update, guy? >> the rule of the day when those came home, and i was outside of that realm and i wouldn't have to worry about it, but here we are, we're the progress report that sucks, in a word it has aren't been good. and i was power pitching fedex, and it's gotten straight down and they have decent eps growth
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and oh, by the way, they're buying back $5 billion worth of stock and in december they announced an accelerated stock buyback. so they think the stock is too cheap, as well i'll stand by it it has not been pleasant and i thought it was off to the races when it was 315. that was wrong and on valuation alone you have to own this name. >> tim will take the mount for his fast pitch, first of 22. tim, take it away. when you're talking about best buy, you're talking about a pitch right down the middle of the way and nothing in terms of the growth story that's overly exciting and this is a rating story that fell 35% or so to a valuation that to me is way too cheap for the last man or woman or store standing essentially in the electronics space. they deserve a premium and at ten times the stock is way too cheap and what happened and they
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guided on lower gross margins and the bottom line is this is a company that will have over 10% free cash flow yield and and will probably be buying back a billion dollars of stock over the next couple of years each year and that to me will support valuation. in terms of innovation and things that they're doing and the fancy pitch that might nip the outside corner, this best buy total tech and the best buy beta which is an advancement upon that is a $2 00 a year subscription service and it's a loyalty service and it's a concierge service and it engages their audience and it's a massively accretive experience walmart did it, amazon and in best buy's case cementing the relationship and the loyalty with the customer makes a ton of sense and i think it's not appreciated in the stock price the outlook, the third quarter was tough, but the fourth quarter outlook is very strong partially because we just grew very tough covid comps
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same-store sales of 4.8%, a much promotional environment. inventory levels that have come all of the way back and stockouts and some of the issues that were plaguing best buy like other retailers, i think, are alleviating significantly. super bowl season around the corner and they'll be out buying a new tv set and bottom line, this company has d-rated and there's no reason for it because it deserves a premium and it's the last company standing in their space. i like best buy a lot. >> what is this nipping the outside corner thing, tim? >> when you're standing at the plate and someone throws an uncle charlie and it just catches the corner of the flight we'll save that for inside baseball >> you have an actual question for tim. >> i love your work here just a real quick question, though before that 30% drop in december when they had the bomb of a guide down, what were investors
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thinking for all-time highs and it went up 30% in the straight line and to your point, this will never be a consistent double-digit earnings and sales grower so what is -- what is the ultimate board case other than value? >> there are a couple of things and some of the innovation and this is a company that outlined it and the inhouse ad business because they like walmart and a couple of other major retailers in target touched $3 billion customers a year i just think that the gross margins story is re-rating to the upside tshould take place. i don't think they're going to do that again, unless we have another covid dynamic that changes their business it's a company that's never been run better and it's been resilient and their industry collapsed and killed everyone around them and it's an efficiently run business >> are you buying tim's pitch on
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best buy guy, what do you say >> people think we rehearse these shows, we don't, but will you read my smart board, mel, please >> # #smooth wicked uncle charlie. >> wicked uncle charlie. see? we're so inside each other's heads it's scare pep it was a wicked uncle charlie and he painted the corner listen, you round tripped that move from basically 95 to 138, back to 95 valuation is compelling and they're buying back stock. well done, greg maddux, i mean, tim seymour. >> karen, what do you say? >> i don't think anyone who watches our show thinks we rehearsed. that's just my own view. i'm with timo this one you know, you had me at value, but also, they've done a tremendous job navigating a lot for years, right we thought, as you said, wit the amazon threat they haven't they've remade their business and done a great job
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i like it. >> dan, you're up. >> mel, for those loyal viewers who hear us say tim's macy's and that sort of thing how do you get that? you get that by doing a fast pitch. so this will be tim's best buy from here on out if i buy best buy with my little eye, that was a fast pitch. >> everybody is with you, tim. the traders have voted it is now your turn to vote, you, out there the viewer are you voting his pitch on best buy. go to twitter at cnbc @fastmoney. the stock on the brink of erasing all of its pandemic gains. we'll break do wt exwnhais nt for this trade do not go anywhere "fast money" is back right after this
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welcome back to fast money we have a buzz kill on peloton down 4% today and on the brink of wiping out all of the pandemic gain, shares are down 80% from the 52-week highs is this the end of the ride for peloton? dan, what do you make of it? is this something that can recover? >> it definitely can recover,
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but probably for lower levels and it goes to what karen started the show out from what w we remember the growth stocks in '00 and '01 and '02 and they didn't bottom for a while. from home in particular is a four-letter word in this market. it certainly was in 2021 when you think about work from home, zoom, or work out from home peloton, or bet from home draftkings all of those stocks were down 65%, 70, some 80% from their all-time highs in 2021 and you just mentioned round tripping moves and look at zoom and peloton. there are further gaps to be had if you will fully round trip these moves. so when things like this fall out of favor there's no low enough yet and they're at a not too distant future in a lower level is the layup >> the kind of growth we saw in the pandemic, may be unmatchable
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in the future, and so the question here is when it normalizes back to growth, should we reach a point where future growth should be put forward where there is not much growth in the future tim? >> look, like so many of the trends that accelerated during covid, i think people were switching from the gym to go back home and have the flexibility, et cetera look, this has round trip. let's be clear this is a $34 stock on february 5th and other parts of the world are differently, but i think the dynamic with peloton, is ooum more of a buyer as i see the last analyst on the street or a couple that downgraded this stock and at 58 and 59, and then they come down to 30 bucks, thanks very much i do think the stock is very
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close and there's a lot of value there. >> i think of carter braxton when he says so bad it's good. is it so bad yet, though, is the question, guy? >> no because i think you're waiting for a day just to sort of add on to everything that's been said. you're waiting for a capitulation day and i don't think you've seen it yet it's a stock that trades 15 million shares a day and you have to wait for a day that's north of 75 and that probably happens with a 2 handle in front of the now 3 handle. this stock trades on that type of volume and that's when you start to have your ears perk up a bit. >> coming up, thin tech troubles and it added to the stock's recent plunge and one trader made a multimillion dollar bet on a possible turnaround e ere's still time for the fast pih. aryou buying best buy? "fast money" is back in two.
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right to your inbox. sign up now with the information on your screen shares of buy now pay later stock affirm getting crushed in today's session down 15% in just the first two days of 2022 and one option trader is betting $5.5 million that if you buy now it will pay off later. mike khouw joins us with the action mike >> so taking a look at affirm, it traded four times its average daily call volume that was largely a result of the large purchase of the february 110 call spread. we saw a block of 15,200 of those, and that's an outlay as you pointed out of $5.5 million, and it was an adjustment of the bet, somebody is willing to press their bullish bet except that they're looking for participation a little bit earlier. by the way, the options market is implying the firm could move 25% higher or lower between now
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and when the options expire. that's a huge swing. >> karen, this came up in the conversation about the crush in the valuation with the quote, unquote, new stocks. there is also concerns about regulatory action here >> to me, they're just concerned about valuation, and i know a lot of good things have happened and pay later have exploded and i still come back to that dichotomy of the valuation for banks that are related businesses and some have buy now, pay later in a name like this or paypal it's still, that chasm is still huge. >> mike. i'm just curious what has the action been in old line banks just to round out the conversation back to the way we started the show >> it's been very positive and we finished the year and basically a lot of the winners that we saw like technology and energy were with the bullish sentiment and they came in third
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place as a sector and that's consistent with the activity that they had two trading days and yesterday we saw bullish activity in xlf, j.p. morgan and we saw a lot of upside call buying and i think people are bullish here with financials, generally. mike, khouw thank for more options action tune in friday for more at 5:30 p.m. there is still time to vote for the tim's fast pitch are you buying best buy? head on over the sus d natresrereltanfil ad a up next. when traders tell us how to make thinkorswim even better, we listen. like jack. he wanted a streamlined version he could access anywhere, no download necessary. and kim. she wanted to execute a pre-set trade strategy in seconds. so we gave 'em thinkorswim web. because platforms this innovative, aren't just made for traders - they're made by them.
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. >> welcome back to "fast money." time to find out if you are buying tim's pitch on best buy it was close, but 55% of you said no. it is not a buy here 45% said yes that's the bright side of things time for the final trade let's go around the horn tim? >> yeah. look, i'm going to go fast ball down the middle instead of the uncle charlie. best buy >> karen >> tim doesn't even get to hear a little toni braxton which i know he loves. >> yeah. >> if you love value which i do,
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look no further than walgreen's, wba. hoe p-e. >> i'm not a beyond chicken guy, but i like the shake shack chicken shack and i never liked it anyway, so that one is fine >> guy >> no comment on any of that stuff. halliburton, sister, my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm trying to make you money. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. once the high flyers fall apart, they almost become impossible to value.


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