tv Power Lunch CNBC February 4, 2022 2:00pm-3:00pm EST
stream it on peacock quick check on the market shows we are at session highs. the gains are not huge the nasdaq is starting to look huge up almost 2% "power lunch" picks things up right now. ♪ all right. meantime, everybody, welcome to "power lunch" for a rainy, icy friday in new york i'm tyler. here's what's ahead. we have market mayhem. dramatic double digit moves the norm this weekfrom snap to amazon to meta to spotify. are these moves in individual stocks big stocks a sign of an unhealthy market plus the power player. former ecb president, will talk about that pivot and whether today's strong jobs report gives the fed to hike more
aggressively power player number two, royal caribbean ceo, ugly quarter. the profitability day pushed back will they hit it we'll find out later this hour. >> thank you hi, everybody. s&p and nasdaq on track to finish the best week of the year so far the dow up and s&p up almost 1% and the nasdaq up almost 2 pistons at the 2:00 hour amazon is surging on a strong quarter and better than expected results from the cloud business. they are also raising amazon prime subscription price and buying stock for the first time in a decade. the shares are up. snap with the first-ever quarterly profit they are up 56% this afternoon >> amazon and snap's dramatic moves are emblematic of the swings we saw this week.
meta lost $232 billion in value yesterday. that is the biggest one day market value loss ever in the history of the stock market. paypal down 24% following the earnings report. spotify 16% lower. not all bad news of course u.p.s. up 14%. visa 10% is this the sign of an unhealthy market coming to tech? does it show unprecedented market power in two market vets through some big moves in the past joining us now. tim paulson and ron insana a cnbc contributor and a market historian. ron, let's start there with you. in the past when individual stocks have gone through these kinds of large single or
multi-day declines like this what has it said about what's next in the market or the underlying health of the market? >> it is interesting an early teacher who created in technical terms the bands so useful as a trading tool told me that volatility in individual stocks often leads volatility in the overall market so i think the types of swings may not be healthy and a market that particularly the companies move so much priced for perfection and levered to a zero interest rate environment as that begins to change and the thesis stays the same that main street has a better year than wall street we are in for some really choppy trading and more of the types of swings given did data supports a less friendly fed going forward. >> basically the swings have
been so great in part because the prices and the valuations were so high ron said a 20 to 25% pullback in the s&p by no means out of the question and likelihood. do you >> i don't it could happen. there's no doubt about that. we are overdue for a correction. i think we have been having a correction since september we had three little ones if you will this one a little bigger i think there's three really nice support systems here urntd the stock market the jobs report of this morning just shows how strong fundamentals are in the economy and i think there's real earnings are going to probably go up again this year and historically when real earnings rise the stock market does well even during fed tightening
periods. secondly bond yields sub 3%, go back to 1950 when we've been below a 3% yield which is a long ways from here the stock market does almost twice as well as it does the rest of the time and goes down less frequently. if sub 3% treasure vi a gift to investors there's many past generation love to trade places with this for the right to invest in that environment lastly i think consumer confidence lower than about 90% of the time despite a 2-year massive economic recovery and rising stock market and a good bet they're fearful of inflation and covid and both have good odds to improve this year. if confidence does rise i think we'll see that run right through
the economy but also right through the stock market so i think we'll end high er on the year. >> you make the point stocks did well with interest rates below 3% i don't dispute that at all but my point would be when stocks were moving below 3% it was coming from above 3% moving to and below 2% and then -- excuse me, 3% stayed there for a long time now it is the opposite they're moving from lows now back now within .08% of 2% on the way to 3% so the direction is different the speed seems to be accelerating as well i question. >> when i looked at that study, tyler, i get your point. but there's no difference
between rising and falling periods of yields. rising yields below 3% did better below a 3% yield fears of economy recessionary fears rise so when yields fall it adds to the anxiety and yields go up and investors look at it as a sign the economy is doing better. i found it does well wherever it is below 3% and does better when rates are rising to 3%. >> i want to come back to you, ron. a thing you said was very interesting here may be a year where main street including how companies perform that main street may do better than wall street, than the stock market last year it was kind of flipped on the head, right >> yeah.
>> stocks led the economy but a healthy economy by pretty much any measure. >> we have seen that for a long time prior two years. now you have got the situation where the economy looks like -- i agree with jim that goods inflation will fall this year but i also think that the fed is so intent to drive inflation down and worried about services and represents and the like that the fed will raise rates this year and i don't think the market priced in but some people say it has a full compliment of tightening policies by the fed raising interest rates all of that stuff. looking at european markets. all looking at tightening and then you still got the ukrainian situation out there and that's why i think near term it's a full-scale pullback. vulnerable over the next several
months. >> there's the conversation. clearly stated jim, ron, thank you. >> thank you. could next week bring more outsized moves as we have seen this week? look at the volatile names reporting. peloton, uber, disney. let's bring in tim seymour what are the three key reports to watch i don't know if it's a barometer but an anticipation of more big swings. >> yeah. we had the biggies this week but looking to next week three earnings announcements are peloton, disney and twitter. peloton i don't think this is the economic bellwether of the world. i think it's a poster child for the high multiple tech stocks, the covid pull forward some stay-at-home trends that deteriorates rapidly and again the comps that very difficult.
peloton is trading -- look at the charts not necessarily the valuation read but trading pre-covid levels and about three times 2023 connected fitness subs which is very cheap for this company and doesn't apply any value to the hardware itself to the extent that i think -- look they have guided to the market they announced a week ago they preannounced the numbers i don't think there's going to be a lot of downside surprises that demand is cut back and had to right rise production dramatically in cost cutting mode these are scary headlines for a growth stock and the stock priced that in. >> the problem is that tim claims he does not like riding a bike in his apartment. what does he miss at a user? >> yeah. >> user experience, tim. >> get with the flow, tim. >> well, ty, it is clear that
you are cycling over time. >> not enough! >> but yeah. again, i'm not riding my bike in my apartment that's the last thing i will do. it is an interesting story nothing to necessarily base market dynamics on but this stock put in a base over past few days or weeks and let's see. >> i want to save disney and skip ahead to twitter if we can. this is a tough stock. as people sift through the social names there's positive 5 comments >> i'm long twitter. addicted to the service. it was painted with both sides of the brush this week with facebook meta and then obviously a snapback by snap in pins and
the stories. i think -- look. a unique digital platform. a company that i think actually has a bit of answering to do a year ago they had a very, very bullish investor day talking about 315 million daus by next year doubling revenues by next year i think they brought a lot of both investors and the street and i think the estimates need to come down and recalibrated. twitter not expensive. probably trading at four times next year's sales and a case where the high multiple stocks when you're not growing you are destroyed and some risks around twitter i think are answered and the ad growth is a strong story but it's been a major disappointment and i think the engagement is something to be proven.
>> absolutely. how about the ceo? >> you know, look. i think we were hoping that this was going to be a dynamic change when in fact it's really more of trying to keep a dramatic change in the medium term but that -- i think that was part of the disappointment jack dorsey stepping aside the pressure, the activist pressure was a really positive tailwind for investors and not proven out here. >> let's end on disney given the changes in the media and streaming landscapes post-netflix heard from comcast what do you think disney needs to say next week to investors? >> i think they need to reiterate again that subs 165 million, 163 million by the end of the year and be clear a major pull forward a tremendous environment
i don't think they should be punished for covid jump starting the streaming business the legacy business and the parks and experiences and obviously look pressures around price inputs and omicron and reopening. the omicron headwinds i think are a tailwind in the second half of the year in a normalized studio release cycle and the things that i've always loved about disney with a flywheel and studio support cpg and the dynamics to streaming support that i think are very much in play. no question netflix took disney down and the stream business is more expensive than netflix. is it cheap at this point? i'm not sure it is but i'm addicted to disney, too.
>> don't like the one you don't use and do -- don't like the one -- i can't really read any trends from it but appreciate the objectivity. disney shares are down 20% over the last year. the stronger than expected jobs rort. the ecb's pivot. does the fed have to be more aggressive now what investors should expect plus new ceo of royal caribbean. the company plans to be cash flow positive in a few months. can it hi the new target we'll ask the new man in the hot seat when "power lunch" continues.
welcome back to "power lunch. i'm dominic chu. shares of bill.com up 36% today. the business oriented fintech firm has full year guidance to top estimates putting that stock on pace for its best day since going public back in late 2019 now the results prompted analysts at key bank to raise the target price on the stock from $225 to $250 and an overweight rating. oppenheimer reiterating the outperform rating. bill.com 36%, a volatile and a sea of volatile.
back to you. >> thank you a stronger than expected jobs report sent treasury yields higher pointly to a potentially more aggressive fed. 10-year going toward 2%. this following the ecb hawkish pivot yesterday. here to talk about the interest rates is former ecb president jean-claude trichotee. rick >> welcome first of all, sir, if my memory serves me correctly you were the last ecb president to raise interest rates in 2011 and draghi took over we see a pivot we see that christine lagarde went from we're not up to the pace of the u.s. and looking to remove stimulus in '23 and look at the markets this week
sir, we are up 15 bases points up 32 basis points in the 2-year shots in europe. bund yields up a quarter of a point. up 25 basis points on the week energy prices are skyrocketing and in europe where will they source new energy? russia so i ask you, always known as a hawk, is it too late for central banks. will they have to go too fast and avoid throwing the economies in a recession what are your thoughts on yesterday's pivot? >> rick, thank you very much for you invitation i'm not sure i'm such a hawk i was the first to purchase treasuries of greece and italy and spain. i went very, very boldly on the nonconventional part of the monetary policy. but that being said, i would say
clearly we are all, u.s., europe, all the advance ds economies at an inflection point. the main danger before is the deinflationary risk and now a situation where there's no more risk and of course each central bank has to make a decision taking into account its own situation. situations are not the same on both sides of the atlantic headline inflation is higher in the us i'm looking at co-inflation and something that like 2.5% in europe more than 5 in the u.s so we are in the different universe on that standpoint. and i have to say the main doin rer the second round effects and the possibility of wages and salaries to increase much more
than is desirable in the perspective of i would say price stability long term and the employers and employees and workers with no interest in having a big, high inflation so i would say in this respect also europe and the u.s. are not exactly alike. we see signs of -- >> sir >> yeah? >> let me interrupt you. we see that the balance sheet of our fed growing. we see a large balance sheet at the ecb and interest rates go up by the bank of england are the central banks correct to stop the buying programs before they start raising rates what are your thoughts on
balance sheet reduction considering how much is used up with a recession due to the rising of rates in the future? >> they have obviously two measures that are well come bined in the task. you're right the two purchase of tradeable securities on the one hand and the rate of interest on the other hand are more or less associated in the presentation of the forward guidance. i have to say i would insist much more personally on the fact that flex sblt the whole of the game on both sides of the atlantic and this idea that the two central banks of the economy have a goal and agree on the deaf nation of price stability and need 2% in the medium and long run and seems to me they
gave themselves the flexibility to do what would be necessary to crediblize their own institution and of course the inflation expectations credibility and the present moment is the rule of the game if the central banks are - >> my final question >> yeah? >> my final question to you, sir, is an easy one. i look at all long rates across the globe with regard to major developed economies and sovereigns long rates have been stubborn. are yield curves going to flatten and invert or are long rates going to move higher and should the curves invert the media at large and central bankers spoesk cli pointed to that as a major development of a
recession. >> yeah. i consider that the market is half right and half wrong in the thinking that there is some kind of mechanicistic approach. if we have the stabilization of the inflation expectations, medium and long term, then we will not have big, big increase of long term interest rates. either credible with the fed and the ecb and others then i don't think we'll see a peak in long term bond rates and i would consider it is better than in a situation where having lost credibility we have inflation expectations which is the worst. both central banks are trying to do all that they can to reanchor or anchor.
i say reanchor because there's unanchoring of inflation expectations which is a big problem. in europe until now i don't se that because the ecb is credible if losing credibility then we are in a totally different universe and the council communication has been - >> credibility is a tough one. yes. i completely agree the credibility is decided by mr. market i certainly appreciate you coming on with me. i have missed our talks. thank you for joining me kelly, back to you. >> a good opportunity to hear from him thank you. ahead on "power lunch," royal caribbean posting another loss stock's down 5%. the ceo joins us live.
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welcome back i'm rahel solomon. republican national committee censured the two gop lawmakers on the house panel the rnc accused the representatives of participating in a persecution of citizens that had nothing to do with the violence at the capitol. a union drive is coming to capitol hill they say that they'll try to form a union house speaker nancy pelosi said she'll support the effort major league baseball players reject an effort to bring in a mediator. there's a greater chance that the regular season will not start on time. overseas, ahead of the 70th anniversary of the queen she was shown looking at celebratory
items. she is the longest reigning monarchy and she is 95 and going strong. >> amazing. >> incredible. >> thank you. just when they thought they were out, it pulled them back in every major surge of covid cruise lines take a hit. talking to the ceo of royal caribbean about the company's struggles amid the omicron -- i can never say it right -- surge. you know what i'm talking about. a powerful gain in the jobs report is the new year bringing a new economy will it? we'll hear from former mayor of new orleans next
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can you hear me, jason >> i can hear you. can you hear me? >> yes thank you for joining me i was on the earnings call tough holiday season with omicron and pushed royal caribbean to push back the profitability targets and encouraged of bookings in january improving. are these for sailings in summer or further out >> it is great to be here. to your point, seema, what we have been seeing similar to what we saw after delta is sequential ramp-up of bookings for the summer which is strzok for sometime even through the variants and q1 and early q2. >> looking at the stock down over 5%. this concern that cruise lines are wrapped up in the covid cycle. right? just the minute we thought life
returns to normal, cruise line stocks drop. how do you ensure that royal caribbean and the stock isn't wrapped up into the cycle? what is the mess and to get around this hump and instilling confidence in travelers? >> yeah. i think on the latter point of instilling to the guests and the crew our protocols putt in place sometime ago are working the ability to manage the disease on the ships is successful and bo and beyond anything that anybody asked us to do. i think it is important to point out in the quarter we ramped you will 82% of capacity and occupancy levels were 60%. we are operating and we are
putting on incredible experiences for the guests and managing through the variants as they come on and with the omicron one which did spread like wild fire had operational impacts on us but the consumer seems to be confident in cruising and seem excited to create vacation experiences and memories which is what we do. >> i think people were surprised to see the cdc with the new travel guidance in late december advising americans not to take a cruise now with cases on the decline in the u.s. do you expect the cdc to update that guidance? >> i can't comment for the cdc but the expectations are that that travel advisory will change here in short order based on the disease and in society i think how well we see and the industry continued to operate during moments like this.
>> at the age of 45, you are now the youngest ceo of a major cruise line. what do you hope to change as ceo of royal caribbean we know that a biggest mark on the industry is bringing massive ships to the sea, 6,000 or more on 1 ship. >> thank you for making me a year younger i am 46. richard's legacy is incredible a lot of our values and culture and the brands we have is very much based off his efforts over 33 years and fortunate to inherent the best job in the world and to have the building blocks for the future. for us we are very focused to
get the financial back to pre-covid levels and the fog cleared around that and focus on us continuing the path around esg and being a responsible organization on that journey. >> the u.s. coast guard is in fact -- investigating a scrub. >> there's an investigation which is not something to comment on but we certainly try the best to operate in compliance with everything and then we can conclude on anything that we need to change going forward. >> maybe the ships are too big waiting for the investigation. thank you for joining us we appreciate it. >> thank you >> seema, mr. liberty, thank you. 90 minutes left in the trading day and the week
the markets, stocks, bonds, commodities. the stocks stocks trading near the best levels of the day. major averages on track depitd the sell-off yesterday yields jumping the 10-year above 1.9% almost 1.923 highest level since january of 2020 you can see the spike in that chart. 8:30 eastern time when the jobs report came out stronger than expected energy sector up more than 5% this week. oil closing for the day and the week new highs today pippa stevens is all over it. >> a big week for oil with wti topping $90. oil is now up measure than 20% for the year
demand has rebounded and supply remained tight inventory is depleted. add in geoplay call tensions and prices respond opec and allies said they'll boost output and begs the question whether u.s. shale will pick up the slack. brent crude up at $93.24 higher oil is pushing up gas prices and the national average hit highest level since september 2014 today at 3.423. just above the november high of 3.422. president biden saying this morning his administration is working to bring down prices kelly? >> already the highest price at the pump since 2014.
thank you. apartment reits report and the stock is mixed why what's causing the discneonct we'll break it down next ♪♪ what do we want delivered every month? clumping litter? salmon pate? love that for me. just choose the frequency and ship it! i feel so accomplished. now you can pet me. get fast free shipping for all your pets' needs. chewy.
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let's check the s&p 500 real estate sector. a worst performing group so far this year. down nearly 10%. a bright spot is apartment reits. diana olick looking at that group. >> on a tear last year and reflected in big earnings beats this week from names like ava long bay and camden property trust. take a look at the stocks from a year ago camden up over 50% rental demand jumped 66% last year and could have been higher but vacancies at a record low and effective asking rents on new leases increased 14.4% the reits stocks are lower year to date and some guidance lower than expected and has to do with the fact they can't raise rents
as much as they did last year. some rent growth was due to huge rent cuts at the start of the pandemic when people left the big coastal cities and rents went up again and can't do that again. kelly? >> diana, it is interesting at the heart of the inflation debate right? it's weirdly encouraged i guess from a macro point of view but a head wind for the landlords. >> right for the stock that's been banking on those it is not so great. >> absolutely. thank you very much. time now for the weekly look at action in the etf space this week with everything going on it is all about consumer staples. up 445 million as you can see there. and the market volatility a big reason when the tech stocks down 20 pist20% look for something safer
investors looking for safety look at the individual etf name that is benefit. consumer staples i shares u.s. consumer staples basically flat for the week and that's the point in a wild and crazy week flat doesn't seem so bad. all of the data from the partners at track insight with more information on the etf hub. ty >> all right we'll sit down with former new orleans mayor and talk about the discrimination lawsuits in the nfl.
story of the day that is january jobs report that came in much better than expected with 467,000 jobs created. and upward revisions in the prior two months the overall unemployment rate, 4% now, just above where it was, that number is much higher for blacks and hispanics here with more on the state of jobs in america is marc morial, our friend, the former mayor of new orleans. president of the american urban league
it's good to have you with us. we'll eventually talk about who's going to replace sean payton with the staaints, but i want to ask you this by lots of measures save for one which is inflation, the economy in 2021 performed remarkably well if you go on a three-month backward looking average so you don't isolate january's jobs numbers, you have 541,000 jobs on average added over the past three prior months 6.6 million for 2021 why do you think president biden still scores so poorly on handling the economy >> i think americans are in a funky mood generally about the condition of the nation. but this year, when it comes to jobs, demonstrates why all of the stimulus and all of the steps that were taken to right the ship of the economy post the
covid pandemic was the right thing to do. this has been a remarkable year. it's a testament to the policies of the biden administration. it's a testament to the work of both employers and employees and the energy for people to get back to work and what i am hopeful is that it's going to continue, that this momentum in the jobs market will continue, because after all, ty, we're still 2.9 million jobs fewer than pre the pandemic we're not all the way back but compare this recovery to the post-2008, 2009, and 2010 recovery and it's a remarkeble different picture. the president, i think, will get the credit now people are concerned about inflation, which they rightfully should be. but this is a remarkable jobs report when adp was predicting losses, and now you come back with
almost 500,000 new jobs created. it means employers and business is bullish, and look, these equity issues still have to be confronted and dealt with, but all in all, let's call this one of the most remarkable months we have seen. >> i think the equity issues are something we have talked about here many, many a time i think one of the things that i would like to get your perspective on is rising incomes. it was a good year for incomes in the economy last year and a lot of those rising incomes did in fact help the lower your tile, let's say, of individuals. people who work in service industries, in hospital services and so on and so forth, and yet, and yet, even with those job gains, they lost ground to inflation. they did not have real wage growth, which puts the spotlight on inflation >> and so, ty, this is an important conversation
this trend of wages not keeping pace with inflation is probably a 25 or 30-year trend. for most workers in the u.s. economy. so we're seeing it in a heightened fashion now because there's a conversation about inflation. people are asking, does it benefit the average american >> right >> so what i think many of us hope is that the supply chain logjam is temporary because demand spiked back much more quickly than supply spiked back, and that the inflation is going to moderate or modulate over time and we all hope that occurs because it will be good for the worker, it will be good for business, good for the economy and also, allows us to focus more pointedly on these equity issues >> we have about a minute left, and i want to get your perspectives on the lawsuit filed earlier this week by brian flores, a former coach of the miami dolphins, who asserts that
several teams in the nfl were discriminating against him in his efforts to get hired and in the fact of his firing how do you react to that what kind of dialogue do you have with the nfl? the numbers do kind of speak for themselves >> we have asked for a conversation with commissioner goodell. brian flores should be coaching in the national football league. i asked myself, why was he terminated as coach of the miami dolphins after he brought basically a perennial loser into a competitive space, number one. number two, there's been great concern that the rooney rule has not been working as of recent. we once had eight african american coaches we're now down to one. while at the same time, there are more african american coordinators, that sort of preliminary step to becoming a head coach in the national football league. because brian flores is a
longstanding, highly respected coach in the national football league, his allegations have to be taken seriously and i think that the national football league has to take them seriously. and the commissioner owes us a conversation i think the owners need to understand that the league should have more african american executives and coaches at this stage in 2022. >> mayor, thank you very much. wi appreciate it have a great weekend >> still to come, wh oioatptns activity is tell us about the market stay tuned sales are down from last quarter, but we're hoping things will pick up by q3. yeah...uhhh... doug? [children laughing] sorry about that. umm...what...it's uhh... you alright? [loud exhale] [ding] never settle with power e*trade. it has powerful, easy-to-use tools to help you find opportunities,
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oh, did linda like it? she did not. oh. you should see what i made for max. max! look at him. he loves it. the confidence to make your dream a reality. u.s. bank. we'll get there together. hi all of thevolatility in this market has traders looking to options to profit. dom chu is here to explain their options. >> strategists at goldman sachs detailing how certain options strategies that bet on increased volatility has been solid performers, looking at something called straddles, buying a call option and a put option with the same exercise price ator very near the current price of the underlying stock if the older profits, if the stock rises or falls by more than the total amount paid to buy both of those options. in other words, you don't care what the stock does so long as it does it in a big way, a massive loss or a massive gain buy the straddle five days before earnings, sell it the day it comes out in the report, and
since 1996, that trade on average nets 3% gains. so far this quarter, it's closer to 15% gives you an idea how much of a roller coaster it's been >> that's because the moves have been so violent. >> right, so you can profit from the volatility strategies. >> dom, thank you very much, and thank you for watching "power lunch. >> "closing bell" starts right now. have a great weekend >> welcome to "closing bell," everyone i'm wilfred frost. big swings on earnings and a job surprise setting the tone for another volatile day on wall street the major averages are near session highs and on pace to lock in solid gains for the week >> and i'm leslie picker, let's look at what's driving earnings today. massive moves from the likes of amazon, pinterest, ford, and cl clorox the january jobsreport much stronger than expected with robust revisions for the prior two months, and energy on pace for another stellar week the sector is higher today and
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