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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  March 4, 2022 5:00pm-5:30pm EST

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deescalation the market is primed because of sentiment and positioning being very depressed, i think that's what you get finally another bounce >> the warnings from the experts this might go on for a long time. >> absolutely. >> have i good weekend, everybody, that's going to do it for "closing bell. "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq marketsite in time square, this is "fast money." i'm melissa lee. tonight's trader lineup tim seymour, jeff mill, steve grasso and pete najarian. right now, we chart the tran transports, see where we go from here we interrupt "star wars", frozen, bambi for this disney commercial break, they will have a cheaper version with commercials is adds on streaming hotter and wheat getting whacked. cannot get a bump after an
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upgrade on the street. it's an ugly chart can anything light a fire under this joint. >> oh, man so many. >> i know. we start off with what might be a major warning signal, commodities rallying gains more than 13%, dollar hitting the highest level since may 2020 that is traditionally not a good thing for the market not surprisingly stocks pull back again today s&p back in correction territory down more than 10% from all-time high dow closing out its fourth straight week of losses, nasdaq shedding more than 1.5%. is there even more down side from here? pretty extraordinary moves for the week if you look at the commodity >> amazing. >> dixie was up 2% this week alone, tim, what do you make of this this traditionally doesn't happen sand traditionally bad for the market. >> right traditionally when the dollar is rallying not good for commodities and is a period you will see emerging markets and
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other things sell off. this is not only flight to quality in fave of the u.s. dollar but in terms of gold for those people kicking around gold saying it hasn't done its job, it has done its job, look at the chart from 2018 to where we are, i actually think we're breaking out and i think the trades may be in the other pgm, precious metal. silver, platinum and playedium are placed to play gold miners have not been run this well as companies at a time gold has room to the upside. difficult time obviously we spent all week talking about inflation and the fed and eroding buying power and the consumption that certainly has improved to the lower middle class, improved wages. this is not a good sign. look at the charts some look over bought, commodities are going higher. >> all correlations are off, we established that at the top of the show when you look at the 10-year, it's rallying also, that's a safety bet. >> right.
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>> the dollar, safety. nobody's buying the rubl in theory. but if you look at the real safety bet, the defensive names are defense stocks, lockheed, raytheon, general dynamics, noc, all up 20 to 30%, in the last three months so where does it stop? do you think the spending on defense is going to be curtailed next couple months or ramp higher it's going to ramp higher. nato countries are going to be investing largely in defensive stocks >> so defense is the way you go. >> sure. >> in terms of the signs for the broader market, jeff mills how do you interpret this? some might say it's a precursor to recession or do you look through it, there's other things moving the dollar and bonds. >> i don't feel you can look through it just yet. i keep coming back to the idea the market is a little bit complacent i know everybody is talking the
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amount of bears is outweighing the bulls but if you look at put call ratios, the amount of put buying relative to call buying is not as extreme as we'd typically see in a real market panic. we haven't really had that freak-out moment yet not necessarily that we need to have one but there's so much going on out there it feels like the market should be moving more to the down side and frankly that trend was already in play just for technical hurdles until the s&p breaks above 4450 until q&a break above 350 we're in a clear drown trend and won't change until we see those levels. if you look at google, amazon, all same story lastly, be careful of rallies without improvements in credit we seen it in january. credit spreads continue to widen so any rally going forward i'd like to see improvement in credit if not it's a warning
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sign. >> pete, in terms how the markets react, volatility, it's only 31 right now. it did go up today a little bit unusual to go up on a friday but we're only at 31 you'd think we'd be much higher. >> only! only 31. >> there's an attack on a nuclear reactor that's my context. >> you make a really good point, mel. the reality is this, that's a 2% move, every single day, s&p, 2% move, every single day so i think that's the part that is amazing to me is the fact we are up at it he's levels and you're 100% right mel going into the weekend obviously you start to price in saturday, sunday, what's going to happen monday, well, if it's at a 31 actually mel, that's telling you now that we were actually somewhere towards the middle 30s, 33, 34 going into this whole thing as we got closer to the end of the day. the thing that stands out for me, we were talking about
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commodities, the speed at which we see this movement in crude, in copper, in gold, name your commodity, has been absolutely extraordinary. and we all obviously know some of the different spots where russia does have a very, very big stronghold, it's not in crude. but crude's been on this run and it wasn't because of ukraine-russia, it's been over a year, stating when the president got into office, that's something people continue not to embrace. gold's been really interesting because the last couple weeks, go back to the middle of february and move until now has been extraordinary and they keep on buying, mel this isn't over in terms of what the options market are telling us, we had glv d buyers bait 75,000 at the 235 strike to give a perspective how high they think things can go in a period
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of time they are going to september with those most other options in last couple weeks are shorter term. but we're still seeing commodities, commodities to the upside i think you got to continue to ride that and roll with it until we see any indications that that's not the path we should be on. >> copper all-time high, wheat up 40% tim, we're at a point companies were saying things are getting better in terms of the supply chain and input cost et cetera, and here we are, back to square one. >> think of what you just said, copper, all-time high. so is demand that strong no, is the supply disruption a -- >> oh, yes it is. >> -- okay, pete is building a house, welding the pipes lately. he's right there is demand in copper. clearly, remember we call it dr. copper because some measure leflt is level is a measure of the is
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economy. i talk about this all the time i don't think freeport and southern copper and other global copper players are reinvesting in the copper mines and i think there's volatility in certain parts of the world where they mine a lot of copper this is part of what the story is and i do get worried about this again, all-time highs in copper. go back to look at steel and iron, ore, and stocks related to that i think diversified miners, rio tinto, bhb, it feels like 2010 "fast money" but this swr we are, commodities are long cycle asset classes. >> how much do you think the move in gold is when you look at oligarchs in russia or trying to get in or out of dollars and the flow of what they're trying to do has been halted i wonder how much of that is skating around it and buying gold in other venues as well.
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>> think about it, karen finerman says this all the time, you can come up with almost any reason to own gold at certain times and she's right. when you think of what's going on with central banks, i'm happy with sanctions on russia, there's no politics here, but think about the fact you got the u.s., great britain, and europe saying we're going to hold on and freeze these assets, it sends a message to every central bank and country in the world whether they're doing right or wrong we want to continue to diversify. and gold will continue to be that i think this is ultimately dollar-negative. like jeff i think the dollar will go higher i think we'll see dixie 105. >> back to commodities, jeff, regardless why they're up these are costs consumers will have to pay for. at what point do you say earnings may not look good for the next quarter, they have to come down because of the increased cost, how many price increases will companies put through to the consumer. >> i think you start to think
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about it now, honestly i've been talking about this for a while. as we push the second half of the year i think we're primed already for slow down in the economy and eps growth and with everything going on that's gotten pulled forward. i don't know if that's priced in to your point, i think we'll move from inflation fears to a growth scare that will be the narrative that takes hold that's why i've been talking about gross stocks i think the re-rating when growth becomes scarce, investors look for growth where they can find it so i think there's an opportunity there and inflation becomes deflationary, and that's parts of the concern. >> did jeff change rooms on us >> what do you mean? >> i'm always somewhere else >> different back stop for the general. >> i'm all over. >> maybe he's a hol d orkol ogr let's turn now to -- rail road and trucking names
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csx. norfolk southern and ch ro robinson what gives carter worth may have answers. truly birfurcated trade, carter. >> very. here here's the most remarkable thing about the it, it's business as usual. the first chart is straight forward. of course the road and rail index which is up 4.9% this is three month chart versus dow jones down 3.6 and s&p down 4.6 okay now let's pull it back further next chart this is a five-year comparative chart. here's where it gets interesting. the winner on top is the road and rail index up some 145% versus s&p over five years up 80 and transports, oldest index of
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all up 60. now look at this same chart. but put in jets. etf. down there on the bottom bringing up the rear, down 35% yes, over the past five years. so road and rail have been leading the s&p which in turn has been leading the transports. you can take this comparative chart back ten years road and rail have been winning forever. look at the chart itself here it is a set up for break out. and look at the chart of jets. final chart. it's breaking down and the interesting thing is jets don't have a lot of history. great symbol jets. if you look at the new york stock exchange airline index going back to the late 80s is basically the same level as it was then 33 years later it's a bad business, airlines. >> wow amazing. >> it's a bad business when oil is spiking, right, carter?
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>> no, but hold on, if you haven't made progress in 33 years it doesn't matter what the current story is, it's a bad business. >> fair enough. >> hard to argue. >> like a football team. >> before you go, you are getting prepped for oa you said oil will run out of energy, so to speak. doesn't look like it so what do you say >> right so that was a follow up. with a little luck buy at 65, sell at 95 now it could go anywhere it wants. >> oh, okay. carter, thank you. see you later. carter worth of worth charting pete najarian do you stick with rail stocks, dump airlines >> yeah i do i like that we had a lot option paper in csx, granted the stock made this month in march we have gone from 33 to 37 in a hurry, back to where we were at the
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start of january, near the all-time highs for csx interesting to see three different hits on the options world they were buying upside calls in this specific name. they weren't buying in other names just going after csx and they bought large chunks of may 40s and went for march 40s and bought the april 37.5 calls and were buying aggressively they bought 18,000 of those may 40s. by the way, in the final six minutes of the game is when they executed 18,000 of those june 40 calls. a lot of activity out there. they say its going higher. i'm going to ride it because so far derivative markets are dead on with these type of plays. >> carter said the line has gone nowhere for 30-something years that is hard to argue. doesn't mean they're not trading vehicles, jeff, you can make money on the swings on the jets
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or xal in between. >> sure you could. and we've seen them bounce and they could bounce now. i've said this before too, i think there's been a fundamental change in some of these businesses think about banks after 2008, multi-year laggards because of what they went through i think you're getting more of the same i want a reopening play would look to mgm or livenation which is quickly on the rails. i did put together a chart because i was curious. i charted the relative performance of union pacific against s&p 500 and put it against manufacturing pmi to gauge the economy and one note of caution we talk about possible economic slow down pmi's have already started to roll overdue the rails follow the growth down relative to the s&p 500? that has been the history in the past ten years >> all right up next not so steady stream on tap for disney plus set to introduce cheaper version with commercials, will subscribers move forward or say let it go.
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announced plans to offer a lower-priced version of disney plus with commercials. and others falling netflix and paramount. jeff, you bought disney in november and you say you still like it here >> yeah we bought it november 2020 it was right around 140, trading at 50 times now and trading at 30 under 140. we're holding, not making changes. i don't know if this announcement was the major catalyst of the move today i think back to netflix earnings and the question was is streaming growth story over and disney reported their subscriber growth is good so the answer is no, netflix isn't acting like it i think with disney park reopening this is as reasonablen theory point -- reasonable entry
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point as any. >> rich greenfield maybe it is a move for disney who maybe wasn't going to meet the subscriber forecast there was skepticism whether or not it would have hit their target without going with commercials. >> absolutely i agree with rich on that. and one thing brought up, the fact talking about the pe and valuation levels, it's still high all we got to do is go back to 2019 and anything before that and this is a company that's always been somewhere in the teens whether the low or mid-teens maybe the high-teens as far as the pe it was up to 50 and it corrected and here we are 30, 35, something like that, it's still extremely high i do own the stock, selling calls against it, collecting against it but i still wonder, it's going to take some time for all of the reopen to really start to kick in to add to this whole streaming. we know the streaming is great but that growth is slowing and
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they're having to do something about it, and i think this is proof of it. >> you know, they are getting a blendedmultiple or trying to get a blended multiple i think it's good news for it because the first thing that happens when you get and content on a streaming service is you go out and buy the actual one without ads. it gives a comparison. in a nutty way this is going to be bullish. >> it sounds nutty >> i thought it througheight times and i came out, well, i'm long on the stock. >> so you had to think of something. >> yes. >> all right up next, up in smoke, shares of tilray has the bottom in the ock ghstlit up the trade after this feel stuck with credit card debt? move to sofi and feel what it's like to get your money right. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪
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welcome back to fastball . welcome back to "fast money. cannabis company planning -- tilray down falling more than 75% over the last year you're in this one the note made it sound like a great deal for exo let alone tilray. >> yeah this is about not apologying izing for canada. -- being the biggest in a large market and cannabis a lot of companies reward the 2 the company that is narrow and deep in one market and tilray are not trying to put together a de derivative based deal in the u.s. -- a friend of the show
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wants to build the biggest consumer brand in cannabis don't think you have to apologize for picking up a company $200 million in debt without extended the balance sheet. there's intrinsic value there. >> the whole move on the cannabis space to tim's point was about federal regulation coming off the whole space everything ran up. everything's in the toilet bowl. no matter what stock it's been sold so i don't know if we're truly waiting on federal regulation to lighten up at this point i was having a conversation with you before the show. crypto, nfts are going to enter the cannabis space, believe it or not, talk about nutty, that's even nuttier than the disney premise. but i think you will see the year of cannabis coming. >> bizarre how does that work [ overlapping speakers ] >> you ain't seen any volatility yet minute you get that.
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cannabis is in the middle of earnings season. it's not the sequential growth story to the moon it's sophisticated cpg i don't think you should be investing waiting for federal. >> in terms of profits, for a lot of the companies, the medical side is much more profitable there's not as much of a land grab for price competition on that side of things. >> no doubt about that, mel. the problem for me, still, for tilray itself, the balance sheet is a little bit upside down. when i look at it i just keep waiting. they made a little bit of money here and there and had some cash flow that's a problem i've had a issue with for a while with tilray. >> time for the final trade. tim. >> yeah let's see. >> let me look at the paper says final trade. nucor. >> steel companies, if you look at iron, ore, steel prices are going higher, nucor. >> literally said that three minutes ago.
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>> pete? >> i'm going to give you an etf. efa buying a lot of puts, i think it's going lower. >> we've all been there. really jeff mills >> crm nimble at quality names salesforce is one of them. >> steve. >> got to go with liquidity, apple. >> that does it for fast on this friday, don't go anywhere, "options action" is up next.
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"options action", strategies from the street's top traders, new opportunities to profit from the market's hottest trends. "options action",
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it is friday that means it is time for "options action. i'm melissa lee live at the nasdaq marketsite in time square tonight as market reverbations from the war in ukraine stronger economic data at home we're concentrating on protective positioning first, carter with stock from international domestic short winds and finally mike khouw uses today's trading hulls as several russian etf as teaching moment to deploy options when market liquidity start to evaporate. let'


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