tv Fast Money CNBC April 12, 2022 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
managed health care company with experienced team and high margins and ample room for growth and we're seeing aging population moving in as primary driver the top line growth and better allocate cost and maintain margin -- >> gotta go, sorry i will have you back that does it for us, "fast money" begins right now. >> thank you. live from the nasdaq marketsite in time square, this is "fast money", i'm melissa lee, tonight's trader lineup guy adami, dan nathan, bonawyn eison ahead on "fast money" -- the oil could prices keep ripping higher plus big banks on the clock. earnings season kicks off in 12 hours what will the overall reports mean for the market. later, chips not semis but
potato chips, wall street saying they have no pricing power. who does the traders are set to name names. we start with the roller costar on the s&p rising 1.3% early in the day as investor shrug off cpr report but despite hopes, couldn't hold the gains ended more than 3% what's be behind the reversal is there more pain to come if inflation sticks it stinks, bk. >> yeah, and i think that's not priced in. it's great if this is as high as inflation gets but if prices are sticky and don't go down, for a while, that's a while. if you look at market indicators on inflation, like break-evens, which you can tease out from the bond market they're saying two years out you'll still have inflation above 4% so this morning was a bit of a
re relief, thank goodness inflation wasn't 9 or 10% and fed doesn't have to raise 75 basis points in may. but the reality of the economic back drop and the fact we still have sticky price inflation an maybe no pricing power, once that sunk into the market you see people selling. >> interesting, what is the market, the algo's don't know what to make of 8.5% cpi readings which a lot of people from quality standpoint think it's actually much higher. the point about what is sticky or not, there's variables. part of the pandemic the fed was dieing to get core inflation above 2% gdp was averaging 2.2% prior ten years to that. it will take a while to get back, we will revert at some point i think the best thing for equity investor
thinking about valuation pressed and opportunities post-pandemic it would be great for the fed to slow the economy down. you think the fed is trying to put the economy in recession i don't think that they don't want to the see risk assets go crazy in a time they can't control all these external factors causing things like oil and stuff go up. hit it hard early. have values compress we talk about it all the time. we'll seen for a year high valuation stuff getting destroys ed what needs to happen is the broad market to come in. >> when do earnings estimates come in, i suppose we'll get lower revisions, bank of america tripped its estimated for '22 and more deeply for '23 but not by much so how do you think of inflation particularly when it seems to be entrenched in consumer's minds that's what we're talking about. the impact on the consumer and their behavior because if according to the new york fed
consumer survey the one year looking out expectation inflation 6.5% is terrible as a consumer i don't want to be spending a lot of extra money on things. >> no, it's terrible that's what they wanted all along, for years they want inflation and i said for years be careful what you wish for because you're going to get it like in the scene in "jaws" when the mayor was talking to brodie he said you yell shark and there's a panic. same with gasoline, people don't notice the eggs but when gas goes from $3 to $5 everybody talks about it that's what impacts consumer behavior i will say this, i think bk will agree, it's hard to get inflation they want and harder to get rid of it they are mired in this for a while time dan talks about mean reversion, i agree, you will also see what
people will be willing to pay in the s&p 500 and the mean reversion there should be 16 handle or so >> where are we in that process, bonawyn. if the pendulum swung one way it's got to go back, that's what we're talking about, right, so where does it go back to >> in terms of valuation you will see mid to high-teens overall. there will definitely be some dispersion depending on what the sub sector is. in terms of the overall inflation story and how it gets back to the target 2.5%, 3.5% is going to be a protractedproces as guy mentioned how it affects the consumer, we point to the savings rate consumers have built during covid, but you look at the access to credit, the growth, the consumer is more strapped paying for, one, services, and two, the core basket of goods.
i don't think it bodes well for the ability to add more leverage to a balance sheet, -- the capacity to add that leverage seems more constrained than what's priced in >> bk, some say we hit peak inflation but others like yourself think we have not, particularly in oil. >> yeah, in energy prices oil is the big one out there. today we had a couple different things happen. one, the spr sale was over e pec said we can't fill the gap here and you saw oil start to rip higher right? so what i think is important is exactly what everyone is saying, gasoline price goes higher, you can print more money, you can raise rates but this is something the federal reserve cannot fix add to that the natural gas prices what they did today, they
almost doubled this year in the summer you get cooling by natural gas to keep inflation high and hot and moving higher not much the feds can do about that, can you raise rates 8% but not much you can do about it. >> how do we process it? >> i don't know. these guys know more -- >> -- this feeds into everything we may not know if it goes higher -- >> you -- all i know know is oil spices higher and then goes lower over the years over the last 25 years that's what has happened. in the last rate hiking sick le - the last rate hiking cycle we saw dollar rally and rate goes higher and crude get december ope -- december operated. decimated when in '16 there was a global growth scare.
my standpoint we're hiking right no my point is we're hiking right now and fed is moving dub for a year or so and who knows, we may move to parts of the world dealing with not dealing with natural gas and go back to crude being $50 which has always been on average. >> that's a year from now minimum. >> but the stock market will start discounting it. >> the stock market already is discounting it most investors are saying the fed will have to ease eventually, we're going to get a recession, we're going to have to ease, what if they don't. that's not priced in >> because they always do, bk. go back to 216 >> they didn't in the -- 1980 -- >> -- different agendas. >> but 2008 is different than this economic environment. the fed are selling calls
against this market because they want people to go back to work don't want them day trading, crypto and stocks and memes and everything, they don't want that. >> okay. >> they need to slow things down that's the whole point of all this and i guess that's what we grapple with every day when we see stocks lately go down. how much grit is the fed willing to throw into the wheels of the economy, so to speak >> a lot more than they have already. i'm sort of with bk on this one. they have tried it out -- i'm using that term by choice, they trotted out every fed official possible saying that, the most dovish saying we might have got it wrong, we're going to slow things down and for whatever reason the market is not believing them a lot of people in dance camp not going to get spooked by the market i don't think market is in their
purview flight, but inflation is firmly in it and going to do whatever it can to stop it, if the market is on the back of it, albeit, a market that has gone up in a straight line 13 years. meantime oil prices leading the market today next guest, paul sankey of sankey research. great to have you with us. you say 110 to 150, structurally, that's where oil should go, you say at what point do we hit demand destruction, especially as consumers are facing inflation in so many other parts of the economy. >> as you know the u.s. gasoline price is still half the level it is, for example, in europe, and we still don't think it's that huge of a part of people's income you've been on fire today and got the idea right, which is, the sticker shock is bad for americans at the moment.
having said that, we are going into sum er typically prices are higher, not complicated, with low unemployment we'll have quite a season coming up. >> are there structural things that would keep oil prices h higher, the political will not to have drilling, rerouting routes so russia has to go all the way around to china, those type things seem they will keep oil prices elevated for a while. am i right is there something i'm missing. >> the russian thing is enormous talking about one of the big three, saudi arabia, u.s. and russia, big being out of the market now, and the way the germans are talking it's a real fool-me-once they're going to go back to russian energy, they lost those barrels, that's a big deal, you
lost natural gas, you're short european refining and all of the stuff that's pretty structural you're thinking about it the right way. >> paul, i want to ask you about gasoline and the notion that increasing the percentage of ethanol could help prices. ethanol is made from corn which will be in shortage, how do you see the biden administration's attempt to ease the pain the consumer, so to speak. >> we've had a mandate for 15 years now. of course it wasn't a biden or democrat it was george w. bush that pushed ethanol into our gas tank and we think it is in the a good idea, it's less efficient, it's made from corn, we have a global food crisis, so we don't like it. as policy. you could be looking at higher corn prices, feed stock prices,
it's robbing peter to pay paul, as they say. we don't like it >> hi paul previously we talked about the boom/bust cycle which is competitive with commodity and oil specifically would you mind weighing in out the advent of renewables start to effect that boom/bust going forward. >> yeah, i was really enjoying the debate earlier, you're all on fire, but the main thing we'll established is natural gas has a huge role for energy for many, many decades to come there was denial putting it in a fossil fuels basket and say let's get rid of fossil fuels and next thing that happens russia invades ukraine and has huge consequences. and we really think it's important to develop natural gas alongside wind and solar for a
more stable energy future than we're getting right now. shut down of nuclear also makes no sense so i think the cycle is going to last longer. we are worried about demand destruction, that's the key thing to think about but at the moment there's such unemployment in the u.s. and economy is still hot i think it will be a very hot summer. >> earlier we talked about pendulum swinging, things going back to the mean, what do you think the path is to oil going back to, say, $50 a barrel is that the big oil companies start drilling again what's the scenario under which that happens >> they're not lying, they're saying we don't have the people, you know, we really can't drill faster than we are drilling, we're already increasing spending and activity. if you go to midland for example it's tight, there's no labor available. available steel, the list goes on
they're not drilling but by choice they're maxed out i don't think it will be supply to change prices it will have to be demand. afraid to say recession. >> paul, thank you always great to get your thoughts paul sankey. all right. so, oil stocks, guy, favorites? >> they go higher. you know, well, he's been on a few times, paul was on around halloween too, by the way, he mentioned mpc at 64 handle and we sai it should be $85 we this is a three year high on the name. oih pulled back. all of those names, specifically slumberjay and halliburton are better with oil at higher prices, those stocks should be higher, i think it grinds higher
in general. >> if you want the energy trade through the fryers is one way to do it or look at exxonmobil but you know you'll get a nice dividend also and it's unlikely that that dividend will be cut in this environment. that's probably another way to express that view on oil. >> yeah and also chasing oil stocks might be the most obvious thing to do. may want to fade it rather than buy on >> always going against the grain. coming up, big bank earnings on deck with oil back to $100 bucks a barrel, next guest says could have impact on financials, first the poster stock for growth, the what caught the eye of one of our traders, "fast money" back in two [sound of helicopter blades] ugh... they found me. ♪ ♪ nice suits, you guys blend right in. the world needs you back. i'm retired greg, you know this.
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they have created a fund to short our strategy from my point of view, if we are right and i trust our research they're doing no research. they're just making a judgment call, i think, on valuation >> that was cathie wood ceo of ark investment her etf down 40% so far in 2020 she talked about sark the short version of her etf, there are other etf's that are short other ones it's safe to say it's a short-term etf not meant to be a 10 hi year holding >> it's a good point from a sentiment standpoint, the stocks in her portfolio like you said are down 40 to 50% down just this year, down more than their recent all-time highs. she's very articulate and one of the first institutional
investors talking about bitcoin and same articulating ev market now and in five years. i can't apine she's very transparent. the only problem i have is she talks about betting against u.s. innovation the stocks in the top ten of her portfolio will never get the sort of valuations that pre-public companies will get before that valuation, roku, coinbase, zoom, top five hold e eggs -- holding, are they most innovative -- no i would tell you this i think inside google, apple, amazon, there's some of the most innovative businesses the same size of those companies within them if you want to the be patient with those names have at it. if you take a while here if you buy those here you might
make some back i'm not sure her buying vehicle is the way to express that view of innovation in the public markets. >> meantime, innovation for -- you call it the poster child for growth what do you mean? >> we talk about rotation out of growth and value the big knock is among of the other things, these bloated price to earnings ratio or lack of, bloated enterprise to sales or enterprise to revenue you look at essentially paying for growth at any cost that's what crowdstrike isn't doing. of course it has a necessary target adjustable market, any growth stock should and will they have one that is large, $2 billion in arr -- sorry, $2 billion in arr expected to go to $4 billion in arr in the next three years. that doesn't differentiate them.
they have a manageable debt load of $750 million. these companies lever up so they can grow and financially engineer return on equity. crowdstrike isn't doing that lastly, just follow the cash free cash flow of 400 to $450 million dollars up from negative or flat in 2018-2019 so this company is setting up in a way that allows it to go from purely being valued on a sales or revenue be number to being valued on free cash flow or even a net snub with adjustments. a net number with adjustments. it's making the transition those companies i want to look at when paying for growth. >> guy, you're with the icebreaker. >> i'm always with the icebreaker since halloween was cut in half and now has rallied. you know what, the best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago
and next best time is today. at least they're doing it. to bonawyn's point, you want to wrap your head around it with -- 55% eps growth i like this call, i think it gets to that price target and quite frankly north of 300, the prior all-time high. >> we're just getting started on "fast money" here's what's coming up next. >> announcer: big bank earnings on deck and our guest says the energy rally could have a big impact on results. his warning next plus uranium, better pay attention to this one. silver keeps surging too , so how are options traders playing it the details ahead. you're watching "fast money" live from the nasdaq marketsite in time square we're back right after this.
welcome back to "fast money" the banks kicking off earnings season in just over 12 hours from now jpmorgan and black rock, goldman sachs, citi group on thursday. financials lower today wells fargo and jpmorgan among the biggest losers the losses may widen, losses in commodities on the down side sector let's bring in girardard, great to have you with us. a lot of the banks have disclosed their russian exposure we know jpmorgan was counterparty to the big nickel trade gone wrong by the chinese tycoon so what more has not been disclosed. i would think the banks would close the b's at least. >> you're right, and thank you
for having me on the show. i would add it was the volatility in the first quarter in fixed income particularly government bonds rating as well as commodities, we don't know the full extent, we will tomorrow when jpmorgan announces its numbers. we also have to remember this counterparty risk. there could be smaller company or trading firms that may have had trouble that haven't been announced. about but you did announce the big one, jpmorgan is the big risk there. >> let's talk about the two numbers most important in my view, net interest margin 1.67 the biggie to me what you're willing to pay as a multiple tangible book at $72.5 i think the low end is 1.7 makes it $125. we've seen it north of 2 how do you look at that in this environment where valuations are get getting getting wrachetted down.
>> you're absolutely right when looking at the margin that's the story for 2020. the capital for all companies will have tough numbers in the first quarter but if the fed follows through and raises fed fund raise to 2% by the end of the year, margins for the group will expand meaningfully bringing considerable amount of revenue to the bottom line as investors focus on that that will benefit the valuations you just described inves blanco i thin -- >> you say according to my notes that you see the most potential trouble in citi, sitting at 52-week lows and morgan stanley did surprise me, why morgan stanley? >> what's interest something what's happening to asset
management and wealth management business we know what's happening in the institutional capital market business but with down markets many of the revenues generated to these companies are tied to the market value think about bond value think about retail investors withlosses in the bond etfs or mutual funds and we haven't seen losses in those funds for many quarters so you will see less than expected revenue growth in more annuity-like revenues which are not as predictable in a down market as in an up market. >> gird girard, thanks for coming on. where do you stand by on the banks. >> they're in trouble. hit in so many areas fintech is trying to eat their lunch, you got commodity houses they're not going to make those loans to, they've got consumer issues they may have problems guys if you get a recession, so, there's so many problems with the banks and the biggest tell
for me is that the yield curve got steeper and banks didn't go out, in that environment they should go up in, and they didn't so to me they seem challenged. >> guy, i thought of you this morning and that's not necessarily unusual, but in this context, that is, the u.s. investment firm capital group sold their stakes of deutsch and commerce bank they added during the pandemic, they had 5% stakes and they offloaded them. i immediately thought of you. >> you sure that was the remy on banks, that's as good excuse as any. i understand listen, you know my view on deutsch one of the it powder cake waiting to happen but the answer is in the form of citi bank, they're one-stepped removed what's going on with
deutsche or commerce and capitalize -- when people pair down bank exposure in this environment you have to take notice. if credit starts to be a concern in form of hyg, i don't know who katie is but she better borrow that door. >> bonawyn might know where she is bonawyn, you're concerned about the consumer accessing credit. >> certainly i mean, they've already reached out to access credit which is already adding, you know, balance -- leverage to the balance sheet that may or may not have been tapped, adjjuxtaps that with institutional low in the first quarter and probably won't see the same type of fee generation. which the panelists are getting to
and cathie wood called for -- virtual versus large trading houses which doesn't bode well for the sentiment has got negative so there may be a reversal unless the tradings or what you are paying for for the jpmorgan, goldman sachs over the original kpw or kre index it doesn't set up well with that said, these are all trading at multi-week, multi-month lows so any positive news you may see a reversal. >> i think that's a great point. the sentiment is so bad and under perform so badly even in the rally couple weeks ago jpmorgan when they reported q4 in january it was down 6% the next day, huge gap lower and closed lower and the stock continued to go. if the stock has a relief great
and guidance is poor, the xlf bet to go lower if you buy those cost you 3%. when you think about the risk that might be encapsulated in those. i think the options market are under pricing the risk saying sentiment is bad and don't see the immediate gap lower but may have opportunity after the results. coming up, power plays, what companies can raise prices and keep you wanting more. the answer next. and uranium keeps surging so we're checking on this one periodically, get that, science humor, how the fratraders are trading it, next y catch us on the go, follow us onour favorite podcasting app. we're back after this. happiness. or confidence. but you can invest in them.
gains are nowhere near over. mike's got the action, what do you see? >> cameco has seen persistently high options volume, today more than double, calls outpacing puts by 13 to one. the most active were may strike calls 44,000 trade forge just under a dollar, buyers betting that the rally hitting new highs today is the beginning could be more than 17.5% higher than may expiration. >> you like it too, bk. >> yeah it continues to be a great trade. couple thesis behind it, number one, green energy. you need uranium to go green secondarily, you look at what germany is doing, they're trying to get away from fossil fuel, from russia's energy, they got to turn their nuclear plant backs on, seems the uranium
trade has likes. >> you think uranium in this trade is esg at this point >> i thisty should be. >> guy, you've been watching esg trade, you think it fall maybe not few years ago but back without question new mine seems every day to make new all-time highs the mining sector is absolutely in play. good for bk for pointing it out. i don't know about this yellow and green thing but i'll nod my head in accord with him. >> mike khouw thank you for more options action, not this friday but the following friday, 5:30 eastern. coming up, might not have to worry about the next bag of potato chips, bad news, one company moving its bite today. and we're naming names with
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comes out stzed for those playing the home game. whispered all-time high jim cramer had the creon yesterday, they paint a pretty rosie precinct. -- picture. with head winds. to me stz. >> i would think their margin is fatter than utz margin which is being consumed by inputs like oil and grains dan, what's your pick? >> mine is pfizer, they're kind of recession-proof, you think of the tailwind pfizer has. feels like we'll take boosters for years. but the way the stock has traded you see a nice uptrend bottom left to the top right and well below the recent highs of a few
months ago if you see it in the high 40s that's where i would look at >> bonawyn >> my pick is lulu, it's not cheap, mid 40s valuation but what's higher is gross margin just under 60, coupled with the fact they've now made a move to recapture some of the secondary market and attracting a new customer base and taking market share from the secondary online-type of stores and resale venues i think they're setting themselves up and creating the mode around inflation, first of all in terms of the first-hand product and now the resale market. >> guy, you giggle like a school girl, do you have commentary. >> no, i just had a question for dan. i'm not familiar with pfizer and their products, is there a specific product they have pricing power with just putting it out there.
guy adami, if you decided to get to time square today, you would have heard mel talking about her favorite utz potato chip, the perfect conversation for you to be right here. she loves, what chip >> basically every single chip under the sun, there's not a potato chip i didn't like but that's for later brian kelly, the stock with the most pricing power >> when i think about that you have to think about a product with lasting demand, saying you're addicted to it, what is the most addicted thing, phillip morris, cigarettes, you're going to buy those at any price and they own a little bit of beer as well so i would pay up for a beer in inflationary environment. so. >> so phillip morris pm? >> i'm saying mo, altria. >> which is domestic smoking
opposed to international. >> you can do either i don't think international or domestic are any less or more addicting. >> or do either. kids, don't smoke. >> i'm sure if there's a 13-year-old out there they should be smoking, kidding. >> smoking something else. coming up, small cap, big potential, plenty of opportunity in the space, our guest lays out her picks next. more "fast money" in two your doctor gives you a prescription. “let's get you on some antibiotics right away.” we could bring it right to your door. with 1 to 2 day delivery from your local cvs. or same day if you need it sooner. but aren't you glad you can also just swing by to pick it up, and get your questions answered? because peace of mind is something you just can't get in a cardboard box.
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welcoming in our senior research analyst julie beal, what's your take on small caps now. >> if you look across the market small cap is most beaten up and it makes sense, you are thinking about uncertainty in global markets and want larger company that's can weather down turns, that makes sense but in small cap you can find great businesses very much in charge of their own destinies and you have less global exposure which is not a bad thing. >> let's start with your picks, clear water, software as a service company, what gives them sort of control over their destiny as you like to put it. >> one thing great about clear water analytics is does record reconciliation for asset managers and insurance companies, and once you put in the software it is integrated in the work flow and processes and has retention of 98% of clients
and you know there's durable earnings. >> do they upsell when they have a customer, are they able to enlarge the revenue stream from one customer >> they can, to an extent, a lot of times they benefit from higher aem, generally, yes but you buy the whole platform at once. when they have increase in sales you see that as new logos they've been able to take shares consistentlily, only spending 11% sales in marketing revenue unusual for some saas businesses spending 40 to 50% to generate revenue. you know kind of a weaker point. >> let's get to barley outlet maybe this is a good one. >> i think is nice it has
a little bit upside if we have a stronger economy but protects you if covid rears its head or we're in a recession this is a discount, close-out merchandise retailers the with a lot of regular goods like toothpaste and sun screen, that sort of thing, they also will just have weird merchandise on sale like, say, a space heater for $13. you don't need a space heater but you're like sure for $13 it's such a great bargain. it is a different business model, it's not impacted by amazon because none of this merchandise is allowed to be advertised online. that's a real nice thing to not compete against amazon. >> i have a closet full of that kind of stuff. $12, you might need it down the line in terms of inventory so tight, supply chain issues how is the inventory in terms of getting that sort of unique merchandise in the door. >> this, i think, has been their challenge and generally the
weakness in the stock but this is a company that has a lot of scale so if you're trying to move discount merchandise, say you change the packaging on your sun screen and don't want it to go on amazon because you don't want there to be price discovery on that discount but you have a lot of it so you are going to go to the biggest source of that so ali' uses its scale to get the best deals. with inventory supply chain mismatches you see people order too much and don't get the seasonal merchandise in time and ollie's buys the excess and they are well-positioned for supply chain challenges i think we'll have for quite a while. >> we're just about out of time but quickly, julie, what does this company do? why do you like it here? >> it is a company in the uk with 90% market share for listings for real estate they are really able to dictate
where their business is growing. even in a softening demand environment for real estate they're well-positioned and through a cycle generates powerful returns. >> julie great to see you. julie biel. >> thank you. >> bonawyn, do you like these? >> i think clear water makes sense. dan spoked about the vc space and one thing i know about my contacts is they will typically play for software as a service and those will attract higher multiples. being it has stickiness when i am investing in small tech companies i'm worried about economic cyclicality, the fact it has services saaas is bit more attractive to me. >> my friend tweeted me who says he loves that retention above 90% with growing sales at 20%, year expected with 75% gross
margin stock seems cheap. >> how does it stack up to the dollar, guy? i know it's a completely different size but. >> listen any time you can get a space heater on sale i'm buying it wells fargo just put $65 price target on ollie's, i actually like it here i don't know who ollie is but does it really matter? >> up next, "final trades" at no extra cost. you gd plus six premium entertainment subscriptions, included! like disney+, music, gaming, and more! (mom) delightful. (vo) saving you over $350 dollars a year. and for a limited time get a 5g phone on us! no trade-in required. (mom) amazing. (vo) this is the offer you just can't miss! verizon is going ultra, so you can get more. mount everest, the tallest mountain on the face of the earth. keep dreaming. [music: “you can get it if you really want” by jimmy cliff]
time for the final trade, let's go around the horn, bonawyn eison? >> i won't pay for growth at any cost but will pay for growth if done the right way, crowdstrike. >> guy adami >> we learn so much on tonight's show. >> i know. >> i mean, a lot potato chips notwithstanding tenet health care report on the 20th of april, i think it continues to rally into earnings. >> we haven't yet learned who ollie is but there's still few seconds left. >> maybe he can call in and talk about space heaters. but if you don't want to look at gold, could be inflation hedge. >> dan >> guy likes your gold, i'm
sure you know that julie bie l was a master class in small cap names i liked her clearwater call. >> thank you for watching "fast money" we'll see you back tomorrow at 5:00 for more fast don't go anywhere. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to help you make money my job isn't just to entertain but to educate and teach call me at