tv The Exchange CNBC August 17, 2022 1:00pm-2:00pm EDT
word. >> illinois tool works a 9% earnings growth and 2.4% dividend yield. >> you weren't playing around that you are looking for opportunities outside of tech. that does it for "halftime report." "the exchange" with kelly evans begins right now. >> thank you, frank. do you sell? and if so, what do you sell right now? stocks are pulling back today. the nasdaq hit the hardest that's because it's also had the biggest boundback. apple is up 32% in two months, only 5% below its record highs one technician set the run is done and we try to makes sen of conflicting economic data, some numbers pointing that a slowdown, and still other just keep trucking along. how about the fed with those minutes react to it all? and in "ens exchange" bj's,
kohl's, and first to dominic which you. >> kelly, it was going to be bad in the beginning, but it goat progressively worse, but now we're in the middle of the trading range. now the dow industrials are down 176 points, 0.75 for the broader s&p 500, 4272 the last trait there. if you look at the nasdaq deposit, that's been the epicenter of a lot of the volatility at the highs of the session we were still down 94 points. at the lows of the session, down 239, to give you an idea so in the middle of that range-ish, but tilling more toward the lows of the session speaking of the composite -- if you look at amazon.com, down
2.5%, nvidia off toes la is down fractionally, and 4%, and these five stocks collectively have shade nearly a third of the losses, so most of these things, they're close to one third -- so keep an eye on the megacap tech names. if you look at the thee mattic stock stories, it has to be a mixed picture. target off its session lows, still down by 2%, lowe's and target, some of the expectations around profits not met it was a big miss there, but it's the profit margin, operating marging story that has some traders more optimistic lowe's and tjx both with better than expected profits, but revenues missed a bit by the
way, tjx is up, despite cutting its full-year forecast, but there are some folks who think the worst is over. speaking of which, there is been a business rift in the daily, and what it means for the market and the fed on the consumer front spending is strong, sentiment is terrible for housing, activity is collapsing, but prices are still hide on the manufacturing, the product data overall yesterday was pretty strong. here to help make sense is david zerbos the floor is yours what do you think is going on here >> well, kelly, i think we're in an economy that in real terms is going nowhere. we have no real growth a lot of people like to call it a recession, some don't. we've added a lot of jobs, vice president got a lot for it
productivity has taken it on its chin after an incredible run, but in general, i think the story line is one of a world where the fed has some comfort in this particular structure of the labor market i think they wanted to engineer a slowdown, they've been successful at it, they'll keep doing it, and we'll see inflation come slowly down you think the biggest risk is they accelerate the balance sheet unwind towards the end of this year or early next year explain that >> kelly, we have a ten-year note yield just under 2.9% we haven'ting take that yield up have i high.
that's really what drives a love the the tightening of policy it's not what you're doing, it's what's happening with the long end of the yield curve i think the fed will get increasingly frustrated, which i think it wants to do by the end of the year, when the ten-year note yield is possibly even lower, and i think they'll look at this big balance sheet of theirs, this beheath moth, and say you know what, you guys want some of this stuff we'll give it to you, and we'll get more mortgage securities floating into the market, maybe some tremendousry, but probably just additional mortgages, i think that would be a catalyst for, one, a bit of a spike up in yields i don't think it will last that long, because it will be a tightening >> i'm glad you brought this up. it gets into one of the biggest anxiety points for the market, which is in a couple weeks, we see the accelerated balance
sheet unwind begin, but everybody is talking about this, to your point, more the this selling could happen in the future, yet yields, they don't look to me like they're coming unglued. we should be pricing it in now, even if it's a potential concern, right and things look pretty orderly and well behaved. >> at the end of the day, as much as we want to talk it being driven by supply, supply, supply, traders or desks love to talk about supply. the reality is that it's driven by inflation conditions. the fed is tightening, when the fed is selling assets, it's also tightening and lowering inflation expectations ultimately you have this force of supply operating against this inflation expectationsration curtailment, and i think that will win that's kind of what the long end is telling you the initial response probably will be not so great for the long end, if they did this, and it could obviously feedback into
a negative impact for equities short term, but i don't see those as -- >> david, if you could, let me go to rick santelli for a moment we just had the 20-year auction. he just gave it a d-minus. before i come to you for a final thought, rick, give me some detail. >> i tried to be generous, but it's just horrible 3.38% is the yield, 20-year bonds, 15, 1-15 billion of them. it was trading about 3 1/2 basis point lower than that, and 3.38 was the high one issued yield of the session. ultimately we had to have such a low yield -- excuse me -- low-price/high used to move this d-minus is the great, 2.30 bring to cover that in itself isn't very good
it's the lowest since oak 21 the dealers took 14.7% no matter how you slice it, with you know that long maturities will continue to have buyers for the most part. look at what's going on in europe this particular auction, whether it's a recent separate of data, whether it's europe going to the wild side or the fed minutes coming up, i'm not sure which, if all of the above, there's definitely an investor avoidance of the 20-year bond. >> rick, we know it's the least liquid, so maybe not the best barometer, butto the point tha dave was making, what are the traders saying about the balance sheet runoff that's about to accelerate, and could do so further in the months to come. >> i find a lot of inertia on our discussions. it's dribbling out
the pace of the drainage going on with the balance sheet is really tiny, and traders are watching it every thursday afternoon to monitor it. the reason it's so important and the reason there's so much intense discussion, when it starts to get a more rapid pace, i'm sure it will have a bigger effect on the market. >> rick, thank you very much as we turn back to dave zervos, the nab-back rally has looked pretty good, ever since the fed's first big rate hike. where do we go from here >> one important point since that sort of aggressive fed move to go 75, is the fed crimedibilt is very strong as much as people want to beat them up, everything in the market points to a credible
fight against inflation. that's just where we sit i think that's an important stepping-off point i think they'll add to tha credibility today at 2:00. i don't think they'll be too hawkish with us. the market seems to think we'll get an aggressive fed. i think they'll be moderately aggressive and the market should take it okay, given what we have with expectations. we have come a long way. we have a tightening as rick was talking about, the balance sheet is about to kick in, in the fall, and as qe worked as an elixir for pain, when you take the qt on, it will bring some pain back i think that's a risk. i'm not looking for a big crash, haven't been all year, you know, but i think ending the year down 8% to 12%, which is not far from where we are is probably a reasonable guess, and maybe
another spike up to 4400 or 4500 to the s&p, maybe be get another dropdown as the fed does some contortions with the balance sheet, but i don't see a catalyst for a gigantic move higher or lower. >> that makes sense. david -- >> we'll come into the office and i bring you some plenty to go >> dave, thanks. we always appreciate it. dave zervos joining me it's been a tale of two markets. from january to june's stock collapse, down 20%, then they took a u-turn. since the june lows, all the major indices are up sandy villero joins us some interesting cross-currents. dave basically told us we kind
of shake out where we are right now. >> yeah, i agree we're down about 10% on the year you close the year on 4400, that's only 3% to 4% from where we are it is a tale of two different markets. you have the bulls that are buying growth stocks that have been beaten up -- you know, the inflation is transitory. we've seen, and on the other hand, the bears are hiding in what i think is a pretty crowded value trade that believe inflation is probably here for the long run and the fed will remain hawkish it's only down 3% on the year. that's sort of the value between the -- and we would be more inclined to look at the high-quality growth names and buy them on dips if you get a 39 had you been or
4,000 on the s&p 500 so that's our game plan. >> i've heard, obviously more love lately for your sector, particularly some of the small caps, technical traders, fundamental players saying that's where they expect outperformer. the stocks you talked about last time are up from when you mentioned them how are you adjusting? >> pal omar has rallied close to 40%. if we can understand what intrinsic values are and continue to talk to management teams, and when they're well below what what we think is fair value, it's time for buy some of those ideas. i still want to buy the higher-quality names that have sold off if it's a company like freeport mcmoran, it will be weak with copper coming down but when you talk about electric
vehicles using four times more copper, and what the two to three-year horizon looks like, it's a slam dunk to buy them when everybody hates them. >> i know you like caesars as well so i get to put a point on it, do you think we have come too far too fast in the past couple months >> the market definitely feels a bit heavy, but i'm always trying to buy things that pull back i will say if investors out there do have names that are losing money, maybe some spacs, software or service names that you really don't love, this is an opportunity to maybe sell some of those weaker cards into this market. otherwise, i would be buying the higher quality names, and with a two- to three-year horizon, people can make money. you're saying maybe selling the
lower quality stuff while the market is open, shall we say sandy, thanks for your time. we appreciate it sandy villere. the overall number was flat, but my next guest there's something between the lines. he'll explain. there's what with kohl's bj's and cisco tell us about the econom we'll get you ready for the earnings result. we're back after this. this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing!
my next guest knows retail more than anybody. he calls it a post-pandemic replenishment cycle. simian, good to see you again. welcome. >> you've been following the saga with weber, all these different consumer companies what do you think is really going on here? >> you and i, i think 2 1/2 years almost, did covid actually
save retail. the premise is -- on the other side, they have completely forgotten all of it. people bought a lot of things to give them teem to digest i think that's what we're doing. i think we're on a replenishment cycle. if i've used up already what, i need to get a box of cereal, if it's a peloton bike, that's how we're looking at the group right now. >> what inning we're in, depends on what product we're talking about, but who do you think is will are through the worst of this, or well positioned for the turnover end a who will continue to struggle for maybe years?
>> such a great question consumer shops in annual terms last year, so products that may have absorbed 19 months of demand we had to wait six months, so that's this idea. the faster you are, the quicker you'll come back if i bought a bunch of three-wick candles from bed bath & beyond, and i haven't burned them all, give me a chance to burn them, and i'll come back. it behooves the management teams to do the analysis and figure out for their specific product, when is our customer going to come back? we talked about price all the teem there's no price to get you to buy another grill if you have one. i want to think about the smaller replenishment cycles
the kachbls will burn faster than a pair of sneaker, than a big-ticket item. the same way it swings wildly in both directions, if ked with think about companies sup up better for the future, you don't have to say no to a grill. so the three companies i think are doing it right, this is the parent company of mike at kors all we have to do is get past that cycle and then i think bed bath & beyond and underarmour are two other companies that eemerged stronger, i hope they hold on to it >> underarmour, you know, why does that one jump out to you as one who's improved as a result here
>> so pre-pandemic, underarmour was a cash-burning business. when it was a big fifth avenue plan, or -- they took the pandemic, they said, you know what we're going to see our revenues collapse anything, let's change the business that's when we flipped our opinion. this was now a cash generating business, that liberated itself from a host of fixed costs they have to keep that going that's the hard part the moment you start chasing revs, you fall back into the cycle. that's what we learned the last few years. the company that can take that,
don't get stuck in no one is buying your product, but they're going to buy them once they wear them through underarmour in a better position than they were before, all we have to do is look at the cash flow >> you lie in capri holdings do you mind calling out any of the things that, unless these change, that give you all the wrong signs? >> obviously we talked a lot about peloton. i think what you have to do, no matter what hand you're dealt with, you have to be in a -- it's harder for you to appreciate that you might go a while without revenue. i think that was the quarter i think the grill manufacturers relate to the game tr traeger said our revenues will
be down 50% next quarter everyone understands if a brand selling into a depend store, if here over-selling, they pull it back, but when a retailer sells it to a consumer, artses if with a promotion, that's harder that's what i think we need to appreciate the consumer is not buys right now, it might be because they don't need you, they don't want you. >> maybe that's the big concludes, what you said about jimmy choo, if you hold the attractiveness, the analyst community will forgive you in a long run even if the revenues drive up simeon, great to see you. >> thank you. has apple run too far too fast one analyst says, no, it can go nearly 30% higher? the mortgage mayhem continues. we have more on the faoullt
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bath & beyond, surging another 21%, back to around $25 a share. they will halted earlier today due to volume activity coming offer yesterday's volume let's get to frank holland for a cnbc news update ere's your news update extreme water shottages in the western u.s. are prompting the federal government to call for water cutbacks, the department of interior is asking arizona and nevada to limit water usage starting in january, the second year in a row they've asked to take cutbacks. ukraine launching a series of medical tear strikes in crimea it would be an attempt to attack
russian supply lines and morale. sarah palin was successful last night in alaska's primary it's been more than ten years since she was on the ticket with john mccain. tonight on "the news with shepard smith," liz cheney standing up to donald trump cost her job in congress. we'll have more on that story. my first job, fairbanks, alaska. fun fact. >> you're from philly, aren't you? >> yeah, but they weren't going to give me a job in philly first out. still ahead, shares of kohl's are down 30%. too soon to call it a duranaround? cisco is on deck as well "the earnings exchange" is next.
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retailer are filling the bulk of the calendar, but not everyone we have today's edition of "the earnings exchange. it's cisco, with a "c" down 27% this year. it had a bad last quarter. frank holland joins you with the story and danielle shay jane us. welcome to both of you frank, what are you watching for kriismt. sco. last quarter them game out can with dire look but the next quarter, 5% eps, the questions about china,
sourcing components, they still remain, as the country continues to ramp up from the covid lockdowns, and the russia/ukraine war is continues there are some questions about cisco's able to maintain the customer base, and fend off competitors. no question, it does have a backlog, but does it translate to revenues going forward? we'll have a lot of questions for the ceo. >> danielle, all three of these companies you think could have some up side to watch, right >> that's correct. honestly, the reason is just because of the way investors have been reacting we came into the quarter nose there were be all kinds of headwinds. the fact of the matter is a lot
of this has priced in when earnings are better than expected, the company ends of trading higher i think it's, at a minimum, is a hold here. i thought a $2.50 expected move, which would just bring you down into key support, if they do happen to say something that's slightly better than expected, i would look to trade this into overled resistance. >> danielle, a quick follow-up question, completely out of nowhere, what do you do with apple here, staying on the tech theme? >> you're rye, it's at new highs. i know it's crazy, this move has been absolutely insane i cannot look at this stock and say short it it's one of strongest stocks in the market i know the rally doesn't make sense, because normally you
don't see a stock trade in this direction for so long. >> that chart is crazy to look at by the way, because on the cisco front, the ceo will be with us tomorrow at 9:00 a.m you definitely don't want to miss it. let's turn to retail thank you, frank courtney reagan has the results before tomorrow, bj's, they're up 2.5% this year. >> just as a reminder, it's a competitor to costco many shoppers turn to them to buy their gasoline and do the
one-stop shopping, so we're going to be curious about the traffic numbers and if consumers are buying more bulk items than typically to save that money comparable sales expected to grow 5%. i would put this in appear possible winner camp for this bitur indication we're seeing. you pay a membership to belong, right? so you want to make it worth your while last call, the ceo was happy with the membership numbers. >> the stock has about a $6 expected move, which could bring you up to a new high on the year when you're looking at the overall technicals, and the add in that the different mac roa factors, i completely agree shoppers are looking for more bargains consumer staples is a focus for
me and given the current circumstances. i like the stock to new highs. if they do happen to note any disappointment, i think it would be a buy on the dip. >> kohl's is much more of a battleground stock before the bell tomorrow, up big in the past month, they did report a massive miss in the first quarter, cut their profit outlook. courtney, what are we looking for here >> i am a little concerned about kohl's going into this they serve a consumer that's more under pressure. potentially the same consumer that shops at tjx, i believe there's a lot of overlap there i'm worried that the traffic that is being attracted by the saporo partnership won't be enough to offset the declines from those that would go to kohl's, because we know that's
an area people haven't been shopping they say that kohl's traffic in stores are down about 12.5% from pre-pandemic levels. so i think if the company is going to have to give us a lot of details, but i think there's points from concern here >> danielle, what makes you -- i don't know if you takethe othe side, but what do you think is plays out in the tea leaves? >> i completely agree with courtney what we have seen in the other retailers, they have noted their consumers are heading more toward the grocery products, and viers kohl's doesn't have that i think kohl's executives have been doing a good job trying to get people into the store. the reason i like this one is because we know the news is bad. it's not looking good.
they already it a bad earnings last quarter, but we've seen the low hold the stock has continued trading higher it has broadband 10% high shortage risk. what can often happen is they may report earnings, and those earnings were respectively bad that ends up resulting in short sellers having to cover. ironically, i do like this stock because of the way that earnings has been playing out i think you can at least trade into june highs. >> that's what shay said we leave it. feel ready for all these reports. thank you both so much still ahead, high gasoline prices have pushed people more into electric vehicles, but they're running into fueling issues of their own. the problem with charges stations, and the company that is standing out as a bright
welcome back a lot more evs are hitting the road, but driver dissatisfaction with charging stations is also on the rise. fill lebeau is here with that story. phil >> this is a survey that's been done for some time by j.d. power. the latest says when it comes to ev chargers, people who are going to use them, are not terribly satisfied the latest report shows that there's a lot of dissatisfaction with these public chargers for a
variety of reasons in fact, they do this on the regular basis. this is the lowest score in some sometime 11 11,554, some said they did not even charge that he vehicle at a public station the main problem chargers were not working. the bottom line as soon as, public chargers, spotty performance. they did however give high marks, the best marks to the tesla super-charger network and d.c. fast charging those areas where there's a d.c. fast charger get much higher marks. looking at the ev charging stocks, if you will. yes, they have come back in the market over the last couple months, but it will be interesting how this shakes out. you have the biden administration saying here's $5
billion, we're going to work with the states to add more public chargers, but if they're not increasing in speed or not working, you can see people will be like, what's the point here >> sort of a dumb question, but when we say public ev charging, it's like public gasoline stations is it distinction from the tesla network, which i know a lot of people rely on. >> what we're talking about here, kelly, is that most people who have an ev, they do the bulk of their charging at home. when we refer to public chargers, we're talking about you are out, you pull into a discretion store, you're running low, you need to charge up the tesla super-charger network is a public charging statement, right now just for teslas, but they're going to make it accessible for all makes and model. when they say public, they're
referring to your ability to go to an office office building, a supermarket, drugstore, and you plug in while you're inside. they do seem like they're proliferating. >> sure. there are more being added the ones that are post popular, no surprise, the d.c. fast chargers people don't want to sit there for a half hour or 45 minutes for a partial charge they said to do it as quickly as possible they want it as an experience as we are used to at a gas station. we're a long ways from that happening, but the d.c. fast chargers, that's what people want. >> absolutely. it's a great point fig, thank you very much, our phil lebeau. coming up, apple is now only 5% off its all-time highs. one technician is saying it's time to, quote, sell it all. is the run really done we'll debate that, next.
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ago, and sitting just 5% below the all-time highs there's a growing division on what's next to the shares, carter worth is saying they're a sell here, while credit suite just aniary the a buy. is dan i he's behind the web bush call, of course. dan, it's great to have you. i mean, i can understand why people look at the chart and go, maybe this has come back a little too quickly here. what do you think? >> i think it all comes down to checks our checks in asia this week are showing firm demand in terms of the 14th and you have 90 million units and that's flat with the iphone 14 and you put that together with the services and i think this is a stock that will have a two in front of it. we take the clock back a couple of months and apple is in the 130s we're talking about china. why has sentiment been so whipsawed by this, for this stock in particular? >> it's really been a whole
theme performance by cook and you look at what cupertino has done and how they navigated the china shop down in april and may and also it has come out, and now they hit the iphone target, and that's the demand story and despite the macro clouds that we're seeing and demand is going firm and more and more consumers are going to the higher end iphone and put that together and ultimately it was hard to get expectations and you're really starting to see come out in terms of demand going into next year going strong. >> i guess what maybe i would sort of suggest to you is why is it trading so high beta and that should be almost boring. like watching paint try, you know it's such a behemoth and it's almost surprising to me that it's still a bellwether for the market that it can still go down whatever it was at the lows and still then be leading us back to the upside it's more volatile, i guess, i'm
trying to say than i would expect and i wonder if that reveals some kind of lingering weakness or doubts about it. >> yeah, kelly i think it really comes down to the services, and i think that's the big divisiveness in terms on the street we go back to pre-pandemic services and valuation and we'd give them 300 billion, 350 billion. i believe that that's ultimately worth 1.2 to 1.5 trillion and i think that's the debate and it will continue to be a divisive name in terms was where it should trade and services, and the re-rating that you're seeing that golden install base that cupertino continues to have even with softness in the macro and that comes out of our checks and valuation which is why we believe this is a stock that ultimately goes back above 3 trillion >> maybe people value a high growth name than a growth one that becomes a value stock what is it
is this a value stock or a growth stock i think it's sort of the services piece is growth the hard one in terms of iphone cycle, you're starting to see more maturity, but i do believe the maturity is overstated i mean, if i looked, you have 240 million of a billion iphones that have not upgraded in three and a half years and 30% in china are going through a window of an upgrade opportunity and i think that's where maybe we kept the story wrong and the maturity overstayed relative to the pent-up demand and ultimately cook continues to have that golden touch and really, almost superhero like in terms of what we've gone through with the covid shutdown >> what was that p pinocchio or benjamin button i don't know, but it's very impressive for a company of this size >> dan ives joining me from web bush >> still ahead, mortgage
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welcome back to "the exchange." one more thing before we go. mortgage demand falling yet again last week despite slightly lower rates. you can see 5.5% demand is at a 22-year low diana olick is here to break down those numbers diana? >> well, kelly, it's just another data point in this string of them this week that indicates the housing market is in recession and that was the call for the homebuilders on monday mortgage demand last week fell yet again as you said and continues with the 22-year low and the drop in home buyer demand is adding to the refi woes mortgage applications fell 1%
for the week and down 18% from a year ago this is the average rate on the 30-year fixed dropped from 5.47 to 5.45 and it's off the recent highs and still up from a year ago when it was up 3%. that in addition to inflation and concerns about the economy are keeping homebuyers on the sidelines and with rates remaining high there are precious few that can benefit from a refi. those applications lost another 5% down 82% from a year ago. rates started this week kind of flat, but they made a pretty sharp move higher this morning and up 14 basis points as bond yields rise across the board ahead of the fed minutes and we know the mortgage rates follow the yield on the ten-year treasury >> a 22-year low, diana, and i have people in my neighborhood and my town talking about how they think the market is pretty tight. >> yeah. the market is still tight when it comes to supply and demand and there's still demand and
very little supply and the concern of am i making a huge purchase now that prices might depreciate or perhaps i might not be as steady in my job as i thought i was and that's the concern among consumers. >> anything you glean from home depot and lowe's >> so they had strong earnings, but i will say that the forecasts i'm seeing from home remodel and renovation in 2022 are not looking quite as bright and that's because of the lower home sales and people taking out fewer permits and they're working on backlogs with home depot and lowe's i don't think you'll see it quite as strong. >> i will say i still think they'll get some demand for years from these new home owners and not the same as when they first buy. diana, thank you for now i appreciate it. diana olick. >> we have the minutes coming out imminently "power lunch" will pick things
♪ ♪ all right. we call it breaking fed news the minutes of the last meeting, the one where they raised interest rates by 75 basis points and 0.75% and those minuteses are due out momentarily and investors will be looking at what is going on about the clues and the size of future interest rate hikes and ahead of the minutes, they're lower across the board and 163 points and let's go now to steve liesman who has those minutes. >> the federal reserve after hiking 75 basis points in the january meeting decided that they anticipate further rate hike ahead they said they needed to move to a restrictive policy and it was required to meet the policy goals of low unemployment and stable inflation the pace was data dependent and it was difficult to get a read from the 50 to