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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  September 28, 2022 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

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term. but the kind of scenario where yields go down is also initially going to be relatively friendly for stocks because that is one of the main pressure points. >> we will see if it is more than a one day phenomenon, as you said. it was a stunning move up and now it has been a stunning move down. the movement in the currency market taking a little pressure off as late. i will see you tomorrow. that is mike santoli with his last word. fast money is now. right now, banks, builders, energy stocks and big -- charging higher. but is it only happening because central bank buckled? up nearly 40% today. carrying the entire sector along with it and we go inside by origins news. later, apple -- slowing iphone
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demand. netflix surges nearly 20%. i am melissa lee. this is fast money. we are live at the nasdaq marketplace on a jampacked desk tonight. we begin with one of the world's largest central banks blanking. the bank of england saying it will come to the rescue today to start buying bonds. nasdaq rising more than 2%. take a look at the yield on the 10 year after crossing for the first time in over 12 years this morning, rates fell. the biggest drop since 2011. what was this rally all about, guys? >> how many hours in a day,
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melissa? 24 hours ago we sat here on this set. courtney wasn't here. tim was talking a lot. the set up was that a rally could happen. we were ripe for a market that rally. let's say we called this. this is going to continue. you can see a 5% move up or down this week. i think the up is going to be 5%. did the bank of england flinch? they didn't flinch. they totally missed the boat. they are now trading with themselves, intervene on their intervention. what is going on is madness. if you think a 30% move is healthy or signifies some relief in this market, you are wrong. the market is still going lower. it's going up first. >> part of this was we had this blow off move in the dollar and it didn't feel like stocks could really rally in that kind of environment and at that technical level we had that match low from june 16th those
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that we saw in massive rally from the s&p 500. what's different now from june -- listen, sediment was really bad. it felt like a lot of things were converging at one time. that's definitely what we have now. but the volatility of where rates were and where the dollar is quarter over quarter, that is going to be the thing that makes it hard for stocks to move is much as they did into august highs off of that low because we are about to get into this period with q3 earnings and we might get the full year 2024. it's not going to be that good. the question is, have s&p estimates come down enough? i don't think so. that said, we see this all the time, it's not a great trading strategy to press lows. if you are looking for new lows, it is not that great. 5% on the upside might give a lot of traders the opportunity to lighten up on a lot of stuff that they ought well or they
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were dying to get out of and then if you are looking to position for lower lows, the average decline, 30%. we've got 24% yesterday. i don't see any reason why we should not be down 20 or 30% at the lowe's before this is all said and done. >> what did you do, yesterday, karen? you effectively bought. >> yesterday, i really covered hedges which was the xfl f and qb, i sold that. the iw am. i covered that. and then i bought some spider calls. the idea of, we are so oversold. it seems like things are going down again and again on the same kind of news. this balance is great. it's not surprising. it takes us back very little in time. i don't think things have really changed. obviously, the british
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maneuvers were the catalyst, but i think we were ready for a catalyst. >> i think it's probably preemptive to say that what the bank of england is doing, we are going to see the fed blank on our end. that is a completely different scenario. i do think part of this is not just the fact that the bank of england has intervened but also the fact that maybe the market is starting to peak in price interest rates. this could be an attractive time to look at treasury. they hit 4% earlier today. if you are thinking they are going to come down here, this could be a good time to lock in some of those deals. you might have appreciation on those. especially for your high income earners. your tax equivalent yield unlike a municipal bond is pretty attractive right now. 5% tax equivalent yield. 7% in a high state like new york city or california. suddenly, this idea where there
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hasn't been an alternative, there suddenly is. that's what you are looking at. >> courtney is right. if you are connecting the dots of what the bank of england did, and somehow it's going to happen here, that is a false narrative. it's the wrong leap because it's a completely different situation there. with that said, the market is going to buy first and ask questions later. to dan's point, now you have an opportunity, if you bought something, let it ride. let it ride for a couple days. maybe get out of it at 108 or 109 which was the prior low back in 2018 and fall of 2018. then, this thing feeds on itself again. some of the most violent rallies take place in bear markets. >> what is the trajectory right now? if i came in and said we are going to be at 3 1/2 on the 10 year, you could make good investments on that information, that we don't know. it seems like the intervention, interventions are not lasting things. that's the nature of
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intervention. >> looking at the 10 year u.s. treasury, you should see a check back to that trend. it did go parabolic over the last week or so. when you think about where we are right now, and to courtney's point, we might be pricing in where we top out. the next meeting is november 2nd. a week before the midterms. we are going to have a lot of single stock data. company data. over the next few weeks or so. it could give the opportunity for a fed, the fed whisper might float a little trial balloon at the end of october that maybe the fed is thinking about pulling back a little more after the november 2nd meeting. i think you will see the 10 year yield come back to probably 3% at that point. that will be more reflective of the fact that growth is swelling and we are likely to see -- dan said he's hard- pressed to see not to see a recession last year.
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we are in a recession environment, let's be clear, whether we have an official one or not. maybe that's one of the reasons -- some of the fuel in the rally is that -- came down in the -- they weren't as bad as expected and that is why we kind of overshot the upside. >> there is a belief that the fed pulled back and 3% is where we end up, post november meeting. that is up nicely for year end rally. >> yes, if that is true, if there is still some growth. but we don't want to see if there is a stagnant inflation where we end up with an okay yield. i think that would be good. it feels like we have a little more room for rates to come in, but i think we've got to see more cpi data. we've got to see where inflation is. i still feel like the fed, whether you think they should be or not, is very much on that
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course and if we don't see any relief, i don't think we will rally. >> 75 in november. 50 after that and maybe another one at the beginning of next year. that is a lot of hikes. >> another one? 100? >> no, another hike. >> magnitude in the new year. if that is the trajectory, we haven't been the top in rates, have we? >> that was the expectation earlier this week. that's what people anticipated happening. there has been no new data that the fed is going to change their tune. i don't think the bank of england is going to influence. they are going to be really focused on the labor market and they are going to need to see unemployment numbers change while people come into the labor market. i think that's going to be the bigger catalyst. that's where i have the watch for. >> has anything changed because of the bank of england ? >> no. >> the level of absurdity has
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changed. central banks have lost their way. you did that on purpose, didn't you? >> let's not forget the policymakers who unveiled those crazy tax cuts. >> without question. i totally get it. when we move on to the politics portion we can get into it. now, everybody seems to be coming to the realization that central banks are not omniscient like everyone thought they were prior and they've been screwing it up for the last decade if not longer. they find themselves in a situation they can't get out of. what's going on in england is ridiculous. they completely did a 180 on policy that they had in place because things were getting out of control. i don't think it happens here, but it's not that far away from happening here. think about what they are trying to do in the united states? they are walking a fine line. yeah, the front end of the curve might be read they don't control anything else.
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that 10 year yield could go down. that two year yield could stay a quarter and a half. you tell me what the world looks like under that situation. bad. we should probably have somebody a lot smarter than me when it comes to it. >> anyone. >> kidding. >> liquidity issues in the market. michael is the director of fixed income at richards bernstein advisers. good to see you. what is your take on what happened? >> it's unbelievable. i've never seen anything like this in my career where you have tremendous fiscal stimulus coming out of the uk and on the other side of the equation you have a central bank that is basically fighting against that stimulus. it's like they never went to college for economics and you have these people driving the ship. capital calls, pensions in the uk, the bank of england had no choice area they were cornered. the fed is not in the same position. whether you like it or not or agree with the chairwoman, think
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god we have janet at the white house right now because there is no way she would ever do anything like what they are doing in the uk. i think inflation is a big concern here and the fed is serious about getting it under control. >> what are you seeing in the credit markets right now in terms of the liquidity issues that you highlighted? >> liquidity is bad across all fixed income. everyone thinks the treasury market is liquid and that's liquid. clearly, credit markets are illiquid as well. you have all of this quantitative easing and quantitative -- and its sucked out liquidity from the market. never would you see 20 or 25 basis points increases and decreases. maybe in the late 80s, but that's about it. it's scary to think we are back in a time but we were in the late 70s and early 80s. liquidity is poor and it's going to stay that way. >> it's nice to see you again. talk about credit spreads. we
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know how rates are going. talk about spreads and where you see them going. >> there arm are two main certainties. one is that central banks are going to tighten liquidity. the fed is going to continue to tighten liquidity by raising rates and encouraging quantitative cash and -- is slowing. all of our models suggest a recession in 2023. hard to envision a world where you have an earnings recession given a ten-year liquidity bubble where credit stays where they are today. i think at least equity markets have gone down depending on which market you are looking at. 18, 20, or 30%. yes, corporate fundamentals are okay, but i've never seen an environment where you have liquidity tightening in an earnings recession and not seen wider spreads. spreads are going up. >> l q.d., which is corporate
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grade bond, i know you notice this, lower than the lows we made in march or april of 2020. significantly lower. that's telling you something. >> it is telling you that yield dropped because of treasury. the spread hasn't really changed all that much. spreads are wider but the risk premium that you are getting to own that investment grade bond relative to treasuries hasn't widened enough. it's an interesting story where you have two credits, interest rate and credit risk and what you are referencing is the interest rate component which has really hurt the market. the credit risk component has much further to widen. >> i actually think, as we sit here and look out over the next week, month, or two months, you make it an equity rally. rates may go up. they may go down 3%. i have no idea. if you look out over the next six to 12, it is hard to construct a scenario where economic growth and earnings growth is rolling over and you don't have lower yields
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ultimately. i think we are going to see lower treasury yields and wider spreads. >> your fact forecast is shocking. >> i think that is entirely reasonable. >> the backdrop must be terrible. >> i think that it certainly isn't going to be great. you look over almost any cycle in history. i got asked all the time, because we were big proponents of this idea that inflation is sticky. the whole idea that inflation is transitory? we never got that. we really flipped on the treasury side, not on the inflation side and i get asked, how could you have high inflation, but lower treasury yield? the answer is because growth rolls over. earnings growth and economic growth ultimately fall and what takes the baton from inflation is growth concerns. you look at the late 1970s and the early 1980s, treasury yields
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rallied. they fell when inflation was 11% in the late 1970s and when it was 18% in the early 1980s. you can have inflation and treasury yield are the common feature is that you are in an earnings decline and an economic decline. >> on that note, michael, good to see you. michael contopoulos. what do you think? >> if you take the pandemic out, and those months where there was an absolute black hole and no one knew what was going to happen and we go back to the last period where we had an idea, the 500 sold off 50%. morgan stanley has the s&p earnings going down next year. where dues -- usually about 14 times. that's how you get to 3200 or something like that. jeffrey said he could see 2900 in the s&p 500.
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great training opportunities. you guys were great last night on this and playing for this. i'm not that impressed with 2% higher today. i'm not. let's see if we can put together a few days. it's hard when you are trying to play these things on a short- term basis. i'm not sure anyone thought we would have a 20% rally. in june it felt really good and i will submit felt really bad. >> michael is talking about that classic inflation. to your point about what does it mean if that ten-year -- i will tell you under that situation, two years not going to move all that much. you are talking about an inverted yield curve the likes of which we have not seen in a while. you think the fed is going to come to our rescue here and maybe that gets the stock market to rally. it's all about earnings. that is the foundation of the market. earnings and revenue growth. it's just not there to support these. >> coming up, apple getting
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welcome back to fast money. shares of apple falling today after a bloomberg report that it is pulling back -- demands purportedly failing to meet expectations. what does this mean for apple going into the holiday shopping season? particularly, a lot of analysts have come out in recent days or weeks really bullish about demand. demand is fantastic trade off the charts. here we are, a big difference if the report is true. >> that is the big question. if the report is true. we get some leaked details about apple shares every quarter and that sometimes causes a big commotion like it did this morning. i don't know. i don't know if that's going to be true or not. i agree. they were seeming surprisingly bullish.
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not been fun the last couple of weeks but i'm staying. >> i just say, look at the supply chain and some of the partners there. semiconductor went down a lot on the heels of that. down 37% of the year versus nasdaq down 31%. they have led to a downside here. maybe they are anticipating something in the smart phone space that is not doing as well as they expected. to me, it doesn't line up particularly great. we talked about the importance of apple in the major industries with 17% and 14% of nasdaq. this is why we've been talking about this the last few weeks. trying to get that multiple a little bit closer. >> right. the thing too is that if this report is right, apple will be producing the same number of
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phones they had forecast over the summer. it's not a huge pullback. it's just what had been originally thought. apple has not come out and said anything. as far as we know, it's the same. get we have a decline. >> let's say the leaked data is in fact true. i wouldn't find it surprising because you are in this period right now where europe and asia are having more of a slowdown than the u.s. that likely is what a lot of the lack in demand is from. but as we do get into this period where the economy starts to reopen, that could shift in the other direction for apple. they are really in a position where they can weather through this. the idea that it is a temporary demand issue, longer-term, people are not wanting to use iphones -- if this were a black berry story where none of us wanted to use iphones anymore, that would be a fair point. but i don't think that's the case. >> short-term treasury. >> why do we play that game
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where i show you a chart and usually you are in my head where you know that game. >> you don't see what the chart is. or the axes. you only see the line. what is that chart? >> if you aren't clouded by the a apl, you don't get starry eyed. mid-single digits revenue growth. 23 times next year's numbers with margins that have not improved. may be declining. you saw that stock don't you? i totally get that argument. over the last five or six years we've seen anywhere from -- in a name that is not impervious to the broader market. apple can go down in this environment. >> the flow is toward the name. you've brought this up on many occasions.
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it's like the darling of past investing. there has been some unnatural periods the other day when we had that big down day and then it was up on the day. again, listen, the market is not going to bottom until this thing finally breaks. >> all right. a lot more to come. here is what is coming up next. biogen's big bump. shares surging on blockbuster drug news. the traders break down what it could mean for the entire biotech space. details, next. plus, retail rising. target is leading the way. is this stock a bull's-eye for your portfolio? throw it ithca an e rtnd find out. you are watching fast money, live from the nasdaq market set in times square. we are back, right after this.
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welcome back to fast money. shares soaring today. results for an experimental alzheimer's drug sparked a slew of upgrades. our next guest calls it a categorical win. let's bring in the specialist, jared holt. great to see you. expectations for this drug were high. the results were even better than what was expected. >> i think they were kind of middle of the ground. when you look at how the stock was trading into it, much closer to a 52 week low and a 52 week high. these alzheimer's trials are obviously very different. they've been going years and years without anything that has been really good. according to a lot of doctors and a lot of people on wall
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street. we are going to have to see whether -- and bio jen are going to be able to execute on their plans to launch this drug and other things we are not worried about, but concern from a competitive standpoint is what some of the other data points look like from -- which are both coming up. >> we saw this. i'm wondering, is it the right thing for investors to extrapolate the good results of biogen's drug onto the other drugmakers. are the mechanisms similar? is that accurate to do? >> they are fairly similar. when investors look at the roche drug and the lilly drug, the biogen drug they are fairly similar. in general, he way investors are looking at this is, do the trial designs look similar? is the paneling sufficient enough to produce good results?
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that was the case with the biogenay or last night when it was released. categorically, when we look across the space, most investors are looking at these as much more similar than different. that's why you've got the outcomes today. >> karen, thanks for being on. let me ask you a question. turned around and ended up on the day. is that because of the fear of how much it would cost them to offer this drug? maybe they wouldn't have to? is that why it rallied? >> that is definitely part of it. there was concern early on that once the drug was on the market, about one year from now, it would open up. so many things to think about, karen, in terms of exactly when
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the drugs are going to be launched, what the price point is going to be, who the players are going to be, and hopefully, for patients, there are going to be a bunch of other players and what that looks like. what we are talking about is are there going to be pressures because a new market opens? i would venture a guess the answer would be yes. but not so significant these share companies can't figure out how we are going to deal with it over the next couple of years. >> more outside for biogen here even after the 40% pop? >> biogen i believe were right this level about a year ago. most investors if they had known they would get a positive to regain here, i imagine the stock would be higher, when you look at it a year-over-year basis. plus, it's kind of like trading with the pharmaceutical group in general. roughly in line with large-cap farm and large-cap biotech. i do think when we look at this from a high-level perspective, it is a huge market. this has been the holy grail,
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so to speak, for biotech for a number of years. nothing has worked. i do think there is going to be significant hang around. a competitive dynamic in pricing. we know the market is there. i think that will allow biogen to go up based on the narrative. >> thank you. jared holz. you were just saying yesterday you had an internal dilemma when giving the final trade. amgen versus biogen ? >> in terms of biogen, trading at 16 times next year's number. relatively cheap. i think it rallied more because people remembered summer of last year when it traded on similar news. next you know, six months later, was trading in half. what i find amazing was the movement of eli lilly today. rallying two all-time highs.
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$263 price target because of their new diabetes drug. we have been steadfast with eli lilly. you stay with them. >> eli lilly just had an upgrade recently? the alzheimer drug was not even priced into that upgrade. yet here we are. we have this call option. >> i was surprised how much it was off. at one point, it was 10%. i like eli lilly. for me it is driven by -- and thinking weight loss drugs. >> right. >> courtney? >> what is interesting about this too is right now we are getting really good data coming out. the second piece of it is, it needs to go through medicare. we've seen it before where there have been promising drugs and it doesn't get through the medicare reimbursement program. medicare covers like 64 million people and most people with alzheimer's are on medicare. that's why these drugs need to get through the medicare reimbursement program. that is the second piece of the
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story. coming up, target takes off. the retail giant jumping after some announcements of early holiday deals. is this one a bull's-eye bet? how they are playing this jump, when fast money returns. >> get your trades to go with the fast money podcast. catch us anytime, anywhere. follow today on your favorite podcast app. we are back, right after this.
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welcome back. here is a sneak peek at the kramer cam. chatting with nikki. catch the full interview at the top of the hour on mad money. target surging 5% today. gearing up for early holiday sales next thursday. carbonic, , macy's, all gaining more than 4%. interesting that they are starting so early, given there is another prime day, too. >> you better start early. nice to see it up. i feel like i go to target, from having target in the
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portfolio. it's been a painful year for sure. this is hopefully a very unusual year with all that took inventory, if we remember what will simon said. i like target here. i feel like they will survive this. i like evaluations. staying. >> dan? >> i suspect back to school didn't materialize the way a lot of these folks hoped, especially as they took their medicine for target and walmart over the last few months. they are getting really promotional really early for the holiday season. i don't think it bodes well. if you think about retail, this was the canary in the coal mine as far as we haven't seen -- the unemployment component of this, once we start seeing that take up a little bit, i don't think it's going to be a great environment for retailers. >> even if they have jobs. their wage j gaines are not
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keeping up with inflation. they are feeling more poor even if they have jobs. >> another piece of this is, energy prices have come down a lot. gas prices have been a big piece of people's incomes but now people are starting to spend it in other places. that could benefit someone like a target. maybe they are coming in at a good time right when gas prices are going down. i do think it's relatively attractive compared to historical averages. you have to go into it with the assumption that the consumer is going to continue to be in a good position for targets benefit. >> i am begging you not to say it's like the december holiday season. it's like arbor day or something. >> arbor day? >> that's even farther out. it's even farther out. it's still september. >> you might not get what you want if you wait. >> i'm going to get what i wan
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, regardless. with that said, target needs to prove themselves. two quarters in a row they have really screwed things up. they have a lot of work to do to get things back to trust investors. one place you want to be, they continued to grind higher. that is a state stock i think is impervious. >> nike is another racing higher today. the market is saying just buy it. brian joins us with investments. brian, what are you seeing? >> the market has ticked up recently. what we are seeing is basically pricing in about a 7.8% move after earning. typically the stock moves 5%. if there is some up side, this is a stock that has been so beaten down, it's gotten
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crushed. it is below june and july here. looking at the september 102 call. they were gobbling and buying those today expecting the stock to trade basically above 104.3. that would break even on the call right now. if we get a surprising upside, earnings are about -- this year. we see that 20% surprise for the upside which we have seen before previous earnings, the stock could really pop. retail has been such a down sector. play the upside. that's probably the smart way to play it. >> i don't disagree with that at all. we talked about it last week. i bought a bit last week. i said i'm fully prepared to buy this with an eight handle. in this environment it might pop to one of three or 105 or something because the stock sold off so dramatically. demand in europe. demand in china. the list goes on.
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there's a lot of things. but look at how the stock has fallen off the chart in the bottom right here. to me, the dollar cost average is much further down in the s&p on the year. i kind of prepared for a guide lower. i have a little room to buy some more. >> there is the china issue. wholesaler weakness potential. there are opportunities there, karen. >> plenty to look at that could be for the worst. you wonder, is that priced in? i look at the stock right now and it's back to a pre-pandemic level, yet they have earned like $20 billion since then. i'm not sure it's exactly right. it is nike. it does deserve a premium multiple, but the china thing is making me wait. how about you? >> i think it has pulled back so much. from the short term, i do like that standpoint. for the medium term, there are a lot of risks.
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we need to see how they guide moving forward. short-term, yes. longer-term, see how they come out first. >> tune into the full show, five: 30. stephen's stark outlook ahead. stranger things have happened. outh had analysts dreaming abt is one? when fast money returns. ♪ ♪ at ameriprise financial, our advice is personalized. based on your goals, whatever they may be.
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all that planning has paid off. looks like you can make this work. we can make this work. and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice? i can make this work. that seems to be universal. i can make this work. i can make this work. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. because advice worth listening to is advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial.
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welcome back to fast money. shares of netflix soaring nearly 10% today. the second best performing stock in the s&p. the move comes after atlantic equity upgraded the name. it's our call of the day. could boost the stream or share price back over to 80. that is 40 bucks from today's close. netflix still down 60% this year. to boot, carter braxton sent out a note today with a number of charts for them saying it is a by year.
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you have these two things going down. >> some of us would say it looks like it's ready to party. some huge gaps in this thing. the news has not been particular league rate. there is this huge catalyst. the thing that took the stock down, it could be the very thing that if they get right, it will take it one step at a time to fill in those gaps. i think we've had a hard time to say netflix looks reasonable on an evaluation basis for a long time. they bought it over the summer. when it was in the hall. >> one share by accident and then i added after that. bought on the crown. filled on one share. bought some more. the evaluation has come in. i think that when they missed, twice, it was really the second miss that did them in. all that momentum for whatever it was, they just mailed out at any price, no matter what. that's an interesting dynamic for me. >> 700.
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which is remarkable if you think about it. i know i loved it then too. the move down to 180 was hair- raising, but we said at the time, it was the first time maybe ever that you are able to buy netflix at a market evaluation. it is only trading 23 times next year's numbers which is reasonable. 285, it doesn't matter where we are, but in terms of evaluation it's not unreasonable. dan and karen like it, courtney digs it. stranger things, by the way, tremendous. >> you've seen it? i thought you didn't know how to stream anything. you don't have people for that? >> i have people. they help me. but hey, wynonna ryder, this has done more for her career than beetlejuice. remember that? >> no. >> i think as long as you assume they can hit those numbers, sales look very attractive. their whole issue is that they
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are stalling out with customers. if we are in a period where people are having to cut their expenses, they are coming out with, okay, you don't have to cancel netflix. just get the lower subscription. it's kind of a win-win for everyone. going up, a big call from billionaire samuel. what could be -- lily! welcome to our third bark-ery. oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way
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welcome back to fast money. the data has more than doubled over the last 10 years. should investors expect similar returns going forward? investing expert sam stanley druck and miller had this to say. >> i'm not saying go get another job. i'm just saying we had a hurricane behind us for 30 or 40 years and i wouldn't be surprised that dow won't be much higher in 10 years than it is today. is he right? are we headed for a lost decade? which doesn't mean that you can't make money in a lost decade when you have
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volatilities like we are seeing these days. >> when we hear the term lost decade, we think about the currency and how adversity affected japan. you know what the thing is? japan doesn't export anything. they used to export walkman's and toyotas and that sort of thing. think about the innovation that happens here. why do we have silicon valley? why do we have company creation? why is it the best and the brightest come to this country to create things? we have this tremendously vibrant d.c. community that is enabling that sort of entrepreneurship. unless that is going to change, i think the stock market is most impossible to look back 10 years ago and say, that wasn't worth it. >> that is beautiful, by dan. we should clip that. what do they call it when you clip it and put it out there? >> thank you. >> stanley is not one for
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hyperbole. he made a lot of great calls over the years. he talked about the dow potentially losing its reserve currency cost. a lot of people talk about that. i don't know if we are going to have a decade of lost stock market not going nowhere, that i will say, all the warning signs that he is talking about are things we have been talking about and things the market is starting to realize now. you can't love stan when he is bullish and discount him when he is garish. i agree with a lot of stuff that he said. >> you've got to wonder what the backdrop would be. if it is that right now we are in the early stages of a stagflation economy, maybe you could see a lost decade or not great decade for some. >> i am not of the mind-set we are going to have a lost decade here. i agree with dan. i think we will continue to see a really good economy especially in the u.s. as we move forward.
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let's say for second we are going to have a lost decade. if you look at the lows -- the highs -- you did have this period where stocks were down. once you factor in dividends, you actually could still make money. that's why you want to make sure in your portfolio you have some companies that have good cash flow and are going to return some of the money back to you in the form of a dividend. that's what would play well. not that i am of that mind-set. >> he is a very smart guy, for sure. i don't want to dismiss that. but we also talk about the market as a monolith and it's not. there are companies that will be flat over 10 years and there are companies that will do tremendously well as optimistic dan points out. and there will be ones that won't cut it. i always got to find something to do over 10 years. i hope i can find the good ones. >> i had one other point.
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markets have become a sport. they have become culture. think about all of these people that we spend so much time talking about. elon musk and it goes on and on and on. that's what's really different this time. when you hink about potential, we were just talking about netflix. the stock market is an attention grabber. we've seen that over the last couple of years. i don't think that it's particular likely that we won't see stocks perform over the next couple of years. you'll get proactive alerts for market events before they happen... and insights on every buy and sell decision. with zero-commission online u.s. stock and etf trades. for smarter trading decisions, get decision tech from fidelity.
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time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. dan nathan? courtney garcia? >> the treasury hit 4% earlier today. coming down i think this could be attractive. >> karen finerman . >> we play this game at the end of every show. how much time is left? we nailed it to the second today. how happy he is. at final trade, yesterday, lucky. tomorrow, sell some higher strike. take a little money off the table. >> near to ear.
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>> 113 again. >> last time i said objects are bigger than they appear. that referenced the atlanta braves, now in first place along with the mets who play in chase stadium. i see you rolling my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you some money it's my job not just to entertain but educate and put days like today into sperspectiv so-call me or tweet me today, today, we saw this dream session. the dream of wha


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