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tv   Squawk Box  CNBC  November 30, 2022 6:00am-9:00am EST

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basis points we'll tell you what to expect. protests again erupting in china after 24 hours of clachl beijing stepping up its rhetoric. and congress to step in to try to put a stop to that looming national rail strike that could cripple the u.s. economy. it's wednesday, november 30th, 2022 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc. we're live from the market at times square jay powell will be on at 2:00. and there will be an interview
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with ftx founder sam bankman-fried. you've got to figure this is going to be must-see this is a very interesting time with a guy who seems like a bit of a whack a goodful you listen to any of the things he's been saying at this point. >> that didn't occur to anyone before. >> completely out of touch with the issues, blaming everybody, saying they would have been solvent if they didn't file for bankruptcy, basically admitting fraud across the board but this is going to be really interesting to see. >> he doesn't seem that crazy when he admits everything he did with virtual signaling was just that he didn't believe in any of it it was to get the backing of people that were in positions of pow their buy into all that who also probably don't believe. >> he gave $40 million to democratic candidates. >> and he gave to a lot of republicans too. >> he said he gave to a lot of
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republicans. >> but not as much. >> he said he gave just as much in his most recent republicans he did it in dark pools where it's not easy. >> gisele was director of social and climate justice. nothing against gisele, but just the idea that would be an inducement to bring in celebrities. >> to have a position like that but not have a cfo or board. >> well, i mean i think, you know, nowadays, there are fervent parts of the media landscape or social media that -- i mean, if you're going to pick one or the other, the climate justice executive or cfo, you go with the climate justice executive.
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are the financials going to matter if you're under water >> under water would be kind at this point. >> exactly i meant literally under water. >> yes we're going to talk to andrew in a bit about what he's got on tap this is one of many people you're going to want to hear from yesterday the dow ended up but just barely, barely, barely, the s&p and nasdaq were down for a third day in a row you see moderate advances. nasdaq indicated up by about 41 points, the dow up by 14 the s&p by 6 with yesterday's losses, the nasdaq actually moved into negative territory for the month. we'll see what happens with this if you look at the major indices in november on the last day of the month, this is where things stand. down by 0.04% the s&p up by
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2.2% treasury yields have been up you're going to see the 10-year is yielding 3.727%, so that's down from the last tick but higher than where we were. crude oil prices which are the ones to watch as we get ready for the opec meeting on sunday and what's going to happen with the ban on europe, you see this morning it's about 2 1/2%. brent crude is at $85.26. >> this was the scene in china's major manufacturing city of guangzhou last night where protesters clashed once again with hazmat suited riot police demonstrations come after 24 hour of relative calm following
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sunday's widespread protests over covid lockdowns once again we're in our cushy existence with our lattes and yoga classes these are courageous people. the courage they take in knowing what's coming -- if you're one of these protesters and heard that, i mean, i don't -- it just -- it shakes me to my core that with their police state apparatus they have combined with demanding to look at your phone to see where you've been and that still goes on, there's that guy standing in front of the tank. >> every time it moved, he stepped to the right torsion the left. >> it's happening again and
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we're probably blacked out jiang xzemin has died he was 91. the state agency said he died from leukemia and multiple organ failure. he was subject to the term limits that were part of the reforms after the post-mao era, which are now just that. we're back to full emperor status or dictator status. >> with thezemin, china saw
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economic growth. they've not seen it recently it's taken a different turn. >> what was xi jinping thinking? he knew the vie rus was never going to go away he wanted to get to this point where he is now. how do they change it? they start massaging the truth the new variant isn't that bad now they're going to relax they're not going to bring in the west much more effective mrna. >> they've stepped up the new vaccines for the em derly. they've been talking about
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people surviving and coming back from co-vichld they're claiming victory, they could claim victory for saving 6 million people with covid next to this point. we'll see. back here in the united states, we've got our own issues congressional leaders have agreed to head off a nationwide strike from railroad workers, promising to pass a plan they would pass legislation that would end a strike or a lockout and then set terms of the agreements between the unions and the carriers speaker pelosi and minority leader kevin mccarthy believe the rail strike bill was set to leave. senator marco rubio has already announced he will oppose this bill and senator bernie sanders called the lack of paid sick leave in this agreement
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outrange. >> for some reason i found myself on the side of the unions initially. i see four unions out of how many, 12 >> 12. >> it would hurt a lot of other rank-and-file workers and the rest of the economy, but my only thought is, okay, if you believe in collective bargaining, you finally get a chance to -- you have the clout to maybe make up for years where you just felt like you weren't as appreciated, and then the government steps in and says, oh, in this case, i'm the most pro-union president. >> you're talking about a shutdown that would shut down the economy and lose over 2 $1/2 billion a day.
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>> a 14% increase immediately, $1,000 payoutsover time this is a problem with precision railroading. it's been building for years as hunter harrison and others have picked up precision railroads. it's a more precise way of doing it but using fewer people ever p and the employees are left hanging. you're right it was ratified by eight unions. >> pass a law against a strike thenen what is it? it's not a strike. >> what did you think when reagan did it? >> hold on wait a second. normally i'm in the camp -- >> this is something the administration did not want to
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do that's why they sat down we the way, the leaderships the in the unions all signet off on. maybe they should have taken a smaller increase in pay in order to get more paid days off. there's two votes coming in congress the first is going to be whether you can shut down the idea of a work stoppage. the second is going to be an up or down vote for seven additional sick dane p you can't shut dourng but we're giving you seven more sick days. >> right paid sick leave starts as soon as four sick days. looking at pelosi and schumer, speaker pelosi and leader schumer yesterday, they looked very uncomfortable.
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>> this also comes as the railroads have laid off lots of people they got rid of 20,000 workers over the last 20 years it's job security. you don't want to be obsolete. >> i guess i guess i agree. okay >> this is a difficult position for leaders to be in i don't know how the second vote is going to go or how union management -- how management at these railroads is going to feel if they say, okay, we're preventing a strike, but you're going to give them seven more days of sick leave. >> what's rubio -- what's his story? he's come down here with bernie? he and bernie? >> i don't know. coming up -- i don't know how i figure this stuff out. i always seem to be on the other
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side of what the administration is trying to do. why? investors are awaiting comments from fed chair jay pow. and later judy shelton, economist and th iauors going to tell us what she expects to hear from jay powell. you're watching "squawk box" here on cnbc. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit
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on today's squawk planner -- who makes up the squawk planner, becky, do we know? do we have someone in chark of the squawk planner >> my guess is dave evans or an zplu so there's a squawk planner staff then. >> there is. >> all right in case you're wondering what's on the planner that squawk -- today's squawk planner du jour, investors are awaiting a speech from fed chair jay powell at 1:30 eastern time. that could give way to a policy pivot. that's ahead of a meeting where they're expecting a rate hike despite recent hawkish comments from fed presidents and the front page at least in the business focused one, "the wall
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street journal," how we're at a new high for an inversion between the 10-year and two-year, which means, i guess, that eventual ly at the highest level we've seen since 1981. >> '81. >> which resulted in a pretty serious -- it makes people think as soon as the dmi does, that there could be a cut on the earnings front we're going to hear from hormel groups spanning the globe before the opening bell after the close, salesforce, box, and pvh, and we're going to get adp private payrolls at 8:15 gdp revision at 8:30, and 10:00 a.m., pending home sales,
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j.o.l.t.s., and we'll try to figure out what that means for this friday. the big jobs number. joining us now our two guests i'm not sure you're loathe to try to time this market, i think, or even try to decide when there's going to be a pivot because in your view if your recognize the rotations that you're seeing the market, that's how you do it you don't need to know when the markets make the turn if you're in the right stocks. >> thank you for having me that's a shade of correct, joe what i'm proposing to investors, what's most important is to center portfolios on stocks that bring the characteristics of resi resiliency
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it's beyond what the thesis is behind it. the thesis about pining about the market is centered on earnings that would bring you back into owning sectors of the market that perform well. that's health care, consumer staples, and utilities and tportfolio is looking at ththe market and dividend earnings you look on the back end the potential for rate cuts down the road should start ball belling a portfolio and scooping up growth companies and tech stocks, so the rebalancing trade is not existing the exit class altogether of equities.
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>> you pivot down the road and nibble at some of the gross stocks that would benefit from the eventual pivot. >> yeah, absolutely. i think you pointed out not all stocks on the sector are going to rise to this occasion we've seen how they're handling their own version of a profits recession, so the stock selection is going to do be key, which moves you away from 100% investment particularly those that are market-weighted. >> jai .j., do you ever go intoe bottoms up camp or down to the macro? what is it saying about the duration or how far this rally
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-- i don't know whether it's a bear market rally or new rally >> some of the things she said in terms of quality names, yes, i agree. what i find interesting is in the short term, we're seeing people buy some of those beat up stocks with leak at what's happening in china and we have folks who over the last week or two weeks buying jd and baba, which you don't normally see, and one of the things i found really interesting over the last couple of weeks is that, you know, crude oil, obviously now just kicking above $850 this morning, the last two times crude has gone under 850, they've bought quite a bit of crude oil futuring uso is not a name we normally see, and over the past couple of
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weeks, it's become a popular name with our clients. we see things like jpmorgan and goldman sachs. i think today's speech is going to be incredibly interesting because one of the things that's underrated is the fact that chairman powell is one member of the fed that hasn't backed off in terms of what we've seen so fafrmt it will be interesting to see if he strike as dovish tone or continues with we have to do what we have to do to get things done, and i find that part rlg interested in terms of wait means tort and what it will my mean for the market overall. what would soften his tone, jj would it continue being inflation numbers or seeing housing -- it's pretty bad lrksd
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but maybe seeing some of the weakness in the economy spread to other areas that are resilient. what would cause him to not pivot but not be so strident about how far he's going to do. >> what would cause it >> i'm sorry i apologize. i think it will be mid first quarter. the reason i say that, listen, going into the holidays, nobody likes to lay people off. so some of the layoffs -- there have been quite a few since october. i think we'll see the pace pick up significantly after the first of the year, and so with that and seeing that and some of the effects it will have on the economy in terms of a slowdown, i think that will cause it to go to the mid-first quarter one thing i'd like to hear today is confidence in the market.
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we saw confidence in the market overall. it will be good to talk about that we're releasing a crypto wallet for people because i think that issite important if people can, you know, hold their own possessions if you will. one of the lessons we're learning but with that, anything he says about the quality of the market will be good overall. >> how much do i need for you to take my phone call at private wealth management or morgan stanley? >> you know, it's the quality of the person, joe, not the size of the bank account. >> so there's no amount of money from me? all right. good answer. thank you. i'm not sure what you meant. so you'd take me now or never take me. you'd never take me or take me
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as is. >> we'll talk off line give me a ring. >> call me. >> thank you jj, thank you. >> see you, joe. thank you. >> when we come back, airbnb looking to become more friendly for apartment rentals. we that story next it's crow week leon cooperman is picking stocks cooperman is taking your questions. go th'sat at 3:00 p.m. eastern time today. check it out
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some breaking news from airbnb and two apartment trusts.
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diana oh lek joins us with more on what's happening here who's up good morning. >> yeah. good morning airbnb is renting so-called rental apartment buildings it employee hints short-term subletting so this will give tennants the ability to host their apartments as homeowners do it's starlting with 125 parts buildings in denver, seattle, san francisco, dallas. some in new york city and washed are not available due to restrictions on shortly-term rehn tassel. >> there's a calculator that helps you to predict what the earning potential is again, if you're doing this on a part-time basis and you can enter in different assumptions,
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we think this is going to help at this time in particular where inflation is high and people are struggling with the cost of living. >> now t calculator factors in building's rent range, amenities, number of units and the number of nights each building it allows it will cap the nights between 80 and 120 per year, and the building can take a cut of the host airbnb's payment, generally up to 20%. >> right up front if it's permitted you look at who's hosting, how often, and making sure the rules are being followed. >> and they must make it their primary residence. it's not for investors looking to sublet it all year long becky? >> diana, i know that a lot of places don't allow -- a lot buildings don't allow rentals, but i know a lot of them have
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been available on airbnb for years. are there steps to make it league legal or shut it down? >> it makes it more apparent you open it up on a portal, it's very legal, and they can have rules about this as to whether are interest are rentals on airbnb they don't know about, they did not address that. >> diana, thank you. coming up, steve liesman is going to be here for the lies maniacs. he's got important things to tell us about fed chair jay powell's speech later today. he's like a fed whisperer. later we're going to talk with another enwhisperer, energy whisperer, amos hochstein. "squawk box" is going to be right back
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good morning, everybody. welcome back to "squawk box. we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. take a look at futures this morning. the dow actually turned negative only by 2.5 points s&p futures up by 5 points, the
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nasdaq up by about 35. if you've been watching, i think, treasuries had also been a little bit stronger, too, relative to yesterday but down from the last tick, 3.7, i think was the last. and investors are awaiting their appearance by steve liesman on "squawk box" -- actually they're awaiting fed chair jay powell at 1:30 p.m but also awaiting the lies maniacs for steve's report steve, is there in chance that jay powell just xeroxs the one from the last one he made and just reads it again? i mean, why wouldn't he? >> he doesn't need to, joe think they's the important thing here you know, there's always risk around a fed chair's speech, always a risk any time i talk on national television. it does not appear to be ahigh as the jacken hole speech. aisle explain why. you have the highs off the lows in ooct. the fed's in a different place
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powell has less to do. this is not jackson hole revisited and the fed chair will not take a maximal challenge. it was 380 for april of 2023 today that peak contract is 502 for june of 2023 so much higher in jackson hole, the fed chair faced a strong stockmarket rally as well as he had bond market, declining interest rates amid high inflation since then the 10-year, 80 basis points higher. almost 110 points. powell is going to suggest the pace could slow for sure and will need to be careful not to suggest the peak funds rate will be any lower than the market is currently priced in or the fed
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will cut any time soon five is the new four that is five, much more than the 4% they were talking about the key today, the market believes the fed, so powell has left convincing to do. joe, does that make sense? >> it does i was just saying -- i think some things have changed with these inflation numbers, but i don't think they want to say things have changed. >> not yet. >> that's what i was saying. he's got to keep talking the t talk it's not like everything where you've got to walk the walk, not just talk the talk sometimes talking the talk is walking the walk because it's self-fulfilling, right you don't -- it would be nice if we didn't have to actually fizz look i -- physically go as high if you're talking about -- >> bringing forward the tightness. that's a good point.
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i am concerned with the notion how much power powlet has with stocks i think it's okay with stocks pricing where they price as long as the interest rate complex prices correctly where fed and powell think they're going to go here's the thing go place, but the fed needs to stay long for a while. if you want to price stock 15/% higher with those restrictions or in that context, i think powell's okay with that. >> probably. and that should do it. if we knew it wasn't going to be 6.5 or 7, i think it would be off to the races we just don't know that yet. >> you know, i think that's a really important point, joe. somebody said it was reckless of bullard to come forward and put that 5% to 7% rank out there for
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the funds rate based on his calculation. i think it's kind of reckless not to think that through. >> he's been off a bunch of times. i can think of a lot of adjectives to use for people reckless is not one. >> no. we all ought to be thinking about how high this could go, joe. >> measured. >> i will tell you, joe, i do think there's a bunch of fed goats using these tallable types of things and all the answers come out at the bottom of 5% some of the answers come back higher when you plug it into the formula >> i feel much more comfortable calling myself that. >> reckless? >> maybe in my past life. >> i was thinking how bullard answers the question you ask him because he thinks it through before he says it. >> yeah. >> he's not going to say something he didn't mean. >> we don't let reckless people
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on, do we? thanks, steve. >> i try not to. >> steve's other gig is so interesting, blues band? >> right not as interesting when you used to go to his concerts, the ottawa dead concerts, over 100 of them. >> really? >> he doesn't remember any of them td ameritrade, this is anna. hi anna, this position is all over the place, help! hey professor, subscriptions are down but that's only an estimated 15% of their valuation. do you think the market is overreacting? how'd you know that? the company profile tool, in thinkorswim®. yes, i love you!! please ignore that. td ameritrade. award-winning customer service that has your back.
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the house is voting on a bill regarding the possible rail strike the rail union says it undercuts their efforts to negotiate our next guest represents soevl the rail unions involved we want to bring in rich ettelman he's a labor attorney with mooney green thanks for being with us today, rich let's talk about what's going on you represent several unions, some that actually ratify this agreement, others thatdy not do you want to explain what
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you're hearing between the two sides? >> well, sure. thank you for having me on i do represent several different unions all rail workers want paid sick leave. they don't have paid sick leave. 86% of american workers have paid sick leave from their employers. all the unions sought paid sick leave before the presidential emergency board that, you know, investigating this dispute all rail works want and deserve paid sick leave. two of the unions i represent their members felt so strongly they voted against a deal that, you know, otherwise had very good elements in it but didn't have paid sick leave. >> why did the union leadership agree to a package that did not have sick paid leave what happened? >> on something like a collective bargaining agreement,
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the members get to vote, and the deal that was developed after the presidential emergency board report had a lot in it that was good for rail workers and was at least enough for the learns of these unions to put out and see how their members would react and let them have their say, which is their right under the union constitutions. >> but if -- if you look at it, i think some people say, hey, a pay raise of 24% over four years, 14% comes right away, annual payments of $1,000 to everyone, that sounds pretty rich would you go back and renegotiate and say, we'd give back some of the pay increases if we made sure we got paid sick leave? >> absolutelynot not a rich deal. this is a 24% over five years. as you play that out, it will basically keep pace with inflation over the five-year period
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the $1,000 lump sum payments are not built into the long-term contract and they'll largely offset the increased health care that works often have. the wage component is fair, it's decent, but it is not enough to say that we shouldn't have paid sick leave also. >> you think inflation is going to run 24% over the next five years? >> no, 24% going back three and forward two. >> back three and forward two. 24% in the economy i know inflation is incredibly high right now, north of 7% according to the latest from the cpi year over year, but we were dealing with a lot of years where we had below inflation. >> by the way, that's compounded it's 22% in actual percentages, but if you add the numbers up
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and you project forward, we've got two more years some of this current year is probably going to be what, 8 something, maybe nine the out years, the board offered 4% and 4%. and let me just stress, the railroads have been incredibly profitable over the past 240 years, they've had a 676% growth in their profits, and in $41 billion in stock buybacks since 2016. so the railroads have been incredibly profitable. they kept pace with inflation. in fact, we went to 1920 to get the ray works back to 1980 reality w -- real wages they're completely fair. union pacific, a 100-year-old
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rail company, robert barron's had his bft last year. >> i know this is an issue with precision rail. >> absolutely. what is branded as a misscheduled rail system because it's not precise, scheduled, and it's really railroading is that cost-cutting business model where the lowered operating cost is, frankly, the only concern the rail workers have, they have cut the work force by 30% in the last six, seven years. what that means is tell remaining work force is not adequate to actually provide all of the service, and that does two things it remains the remaining workers have to work all the time. >> that argument resumes that argument res ig nates for sure joe biden called the union the most friendly of all time. do you feel lie you've been
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abandoned if he's telling congress to intervene and tell the railroad they can't strike, odds are high you'll get a positive vote on the second vote that bernie sanders is talking about, wanting to give an additional seven days of paid time do you feel like they've let you guys -- leadd you astray >> the biden administration has done a lot for us over this round of bargaining. we appreciate everything they've done we think the railroads have backed the administration into a corner they have already started threatening to shut down before there's even strike. they've continued to refuse to negotiate. we've lowered our demand for paid sick leave. we went from 15 to 7 in asking for 7, we basically asked for what the sick leave for federal contractors is when the railroads had claimed themselves to be federal contractors under executive order for the federal vooin
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mandate an we said, fine, give us the same days that federal contractors get under a different executive order. so the railroads have hard-lined us you have to realize the proposal for paid sick leave would cost the railroads around a every don their profits. this is really about, they cannot have people take off from work when they need it i think it's important to recognize -- >> my question is, have you run out of negotiating room? if congress gets involved, that's kind of the end. >> if congress gets involved, then it will -- that will resolve the dispute. congress has the authority under the constitution to intervene and pass legislation settling the dispute. in our view, if congress doesn't intervene, they should enact the agreements and the local agreements and side letters along with paid sick leave and there are proposals before
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congress to do it and we're advocating that they do that >> rich, i want to thank youor f your time. "squawk box" will be right back. u have everything you need to u setup your online store, to connect with customers, and to bring your dream business to life. because when we work together, the future is bright. these days, your customers are not just down the hall. they're all over the world. so cute. it doesn't have to be lonely at the top. join the millions to finding success on their own terms. start your journey with a free trial today. to adapt in a fast changing world, you could hire a professional pit crew. go, go, go. sorry. nope. okay. fresh donuts - hot coffee! they deliver real time data and business forecasts when you need it. i think it was fine how it was. (air tool sound) to help you stay ahead of the curve... or you could use workday. the finance, hr and planning system that helps cfos make better decisions faster. on the other hand, we had a great fourth quarter.
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bob iger's first all hands meeting, he reassured employees that the company would return to chasing profit ability and not subscriptions. it still comes with struggles. he's got to fix the company's streaming platforms, fighting high ticket prices at the parks and eventually finding a successor. he reaffirm that had the company would continue its hiring freeze as it reassesses its cost
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structure. joining us now is matt belloni we're very glad to see you this morning. let's talk about what iger has on his plate this morning. look, it's a -- it's a lot to try and get through. he's got to be talking about keeping the hiring freezes, he's got to figure out how to fix a lot of things. management changes that he's hinted at, what does he do with distribution is it back to the movie theaters or more of that to some of the streaming services how is he going to handle all of this >> there is a lot on his plate and the entertainment industry is heading into treacherous waters here, especially as we see an advertising downturn. iger has approached this through the prism of creativity. he thinks under his predecessor, the company got away from this creative engine that he believes
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empowers the entire walt disney company and he's going to first and foremost get rid of this setup they have where distribution is the entire engine of the company and they don't have creative accountability at the different divisions. it's going to be a reorganize. they're going to put creative people in charge of these creative businesses, and then he's going to go business by business and decide how to move forward in each of those >> look, i think iger is kind of masterful when it comes to being able to relate to all of the constituencies we were talking about this yesterday. whether that be wall street and the investors, the employees, the customers, he has the magic touch when it comes to those things is he going to be able to pull this off >> that is the billions and billions of dollar question. because he's got to figure out the streaming path forward if you look at disney right now, all in, they have more sub
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sk scribers to their streaming services than disney does, but a low revenue per user and that's what the streetc cars about now. especially on the issues of lgbtq issues, he has their back. under his predecessor they got into the fight with ron desantis in florida iger said first and foremost at this town hall, he's going to stand up for the values of the company and he said there are limits and not everybody is going to be happy at all times, but on these culture war issues, he wants to stay out of the headlines while allowing the employees to feel like their leader has their back. >> i would love to have you back because the big question i really want to note too is what does he wind up doing with some of these issues in terms of
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picking a successor. that's the problem he wants to fix. >> and that's what the board said in their announcement he's going to steady the ship and also pick a successor which he has never been able to do this is the guy who retired and unretired four times that is his biggest challenge. >> we will have you back that's a much longer conversation thank you. >> no problem. >> the greatest ceo in the world can't really deal with what they're trying to accomplish it is a tough -- do you know what to do if you were him >> no. i'm glad it's him. >> spend more on content
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good morning it's the final trading day of november and the futures are trading cautiously ahead of the open some key data that investors will be paying attention to today. we got the employment report and the latest read on gdp but the real focus of the markets is on fed chair jay powell and what he will say or won't say about further interest rates hikes. we'll talk about what's ahead for the economy and your money. more protests overnight in china over covid policy. the details and reaction from former prime minister of australia and ceo of the yasia society, kevin rudd. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now
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good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in time square. i'm joe kernen along with andrew ross sorkin and becky quick. this conference comes around quickly. and this one features an interview with ftx founder sam bankman-fried. no limits, no -- andrew can -- i guarantee you, any question that needs to be asked is going to be asked. >> we can't wait >> it's just going to be -- i don't know can he still say, you know i don't know about that? i cannot -- the guy has -- he's so whacky. >> andrew will pin him down.
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>> u.s. equity futures at this hour waiting for jay up 27 points the nasdaq rebounding a little and the s&p indicated up about eight. treasuries, 3.7 or so. that could change depending on jay powell check out oil, we'll talk everything oil related i think maybe we have some big interviews later this week in the oil sector. >> we do mike worth is going to be joining us from chevron. >> on set i think. i'm going to be speaking with him thursday at the economic cluck in new york and he'll join us live on set on friday morning ahead of the opec meeting. the venezuela permissions to permit a lot of questions about policy, where it's leading him, what he thinks is going to happen with oil prices
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>> and crypto almost back to 17,000 on bitcoin. i don't know, is it surprising we had another bankruptcy the day before -- >> anybody who was propped up by sam bankman-fried, it was propped up with stuff that's collapsed since then. >> the bottom -- not -- of -- not of our chart -- >> you go even lower if you go through any of these tokens. >> tokens that have completely false -- >> direct coins. >> yeah. >> do that if we can. >> they're not liquid. they're not traded it's based on made-up numbers. in our headlines this morning, investors are awaiting an afternoon speech from fed chairman jay powell. he's going to be speaking to the brookings institute at 1:00 p.m. eastern time this comes ahead of the fed's next policy meeting on december 13th and 14th and i think this is right before the blackout period this may be the last you'll be hearing. it is an extremely busy day for
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economic numbers it starts with adp's report on the private sector employment. then we'll be getting the second estimate of the third quarter gdp. the chicago purchasing managers index and the labor department's jolts report, and then they will release the beige book congress plans to take action today to avoid a nationwide rail strike house speaker nancy pelosi says the house will seek to pass legislation that only some unions have accepted at this point. they will aim to quickly pass this bill once the house finishes that work. >> are you sure it's a second look at the third quarter or the third look at the -- or is it the second look at the second quarter? >> i don't know. >> it's just crazy when we talk about that let's get to dom chu he might now
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a look at this morning's premarket movers. >> i know for certain that we're in the fourth quarter calendar speaking. >> because you got a smartphone and you just look. >> i can just look at the -- people don't wear watches anymore. a number of things to talk about with regard to the headlines that you read off and the oil conversation that you had. we are going to watch that oil complex ahead of the big opec meeting. west texas intermediate, brent cruise prices on the move this morning. that opec plus meeting could signal further production cuts also, of course, we had a week -- a little over a week ago the biden administration's saying they could look to replenish the oil reserve. i know you're going to talk to him later on we're going to watch those
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stocks closely here. eog resources, chevron, all those stocks that are more active in the premarket trade right now on oil prices. also, we've got horizon therapeutics which is surging by 32%, just about 20 shares of premarket volume still thinner right now. the biotech companies develops treatments for autoimmune diseases does confirm that it's in initial takeover discussions to be bought by jensen global, a unit of johnson and i don't understand, or santa fe. the discussions are early stage and horizon says they may or may not lead to an actual offer firmly to buy the company. those shares up 32% on those news and we'll end on shares of carvana. continuing to really medium to longer term downturn, it's lost 97% of its value over the year 57,000 shares have changed ands
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so far analysts have downgraded that star to a neutral rating they cut the target price to $10. it was 43. a higher amount of traders shorting the stock joe, carvana shares, $7.30, a little over a billion and a quarter in market cap. far from where it was. >> it's worth somewhere between $7 and $280. you can hide in the stock market we have a lot mor stability. we know what things are woworth -- >> there is a balance sheet for carvana. >> seriously, 280 to $7? if you can't glean some logic or insight about stocks in the stock market from that, then i don't know what to tell you.
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but that's staggers. that's not the only one. there's a whole slew. >> no, we've talked a lot about that. >> unbelievable. i'm thinking we should buy land. things that you can -- on. you can go and relieve yourself on something that's -- that's what -- it will always be valuable realize go ahead reckless reckless. >> thinking of all the things that you could buy -- >> with an etf, what are you going to do tat at the border. i swear i own it. the latest mortgage application data just hitting the wires. diana olick has those numbers. what do you see? >> mortgage rates dropped for the third straight week but it did not help much. weekly applications dropped 1%
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and that does include an adjustment for thanksgiving. the average rate on the 30-year fixed dropped to 6.49% and that's for loans with 20% down refinance applications still dropped a lot, down 13% from the previous week. 86% lower than the same week a year ago and it's strange given that 100,000 more borrowers could benefit. mortgage applications to buy a home, they gained 4% from the previous week. sales of existing homes continue to drop while newly built home sales are benefitting slightly from builder concessions, specifically deals in which the builder buys down the mortgage rates. we've got the jobs report coming up friday and the speech this afternoon. so we'll see what happens there. becky? >> just thinking about what you said about how people are not refinancing yet, even though a
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lot of them could benefit from them maybe it's early and they haven't done it yet. maybe they just think rates are going to have to go a lot lower and it's better to wait a little. >> right they may not know that they came down in the last couple of weeks. we're hearing so much about higher rates and also thanksgiving, of course. that's too >> diana, thank you. we'll see you later. coming up, wall street awaiting fed reserve jay powell's speech that may give further insight into further rate hikes we'll talk to judy shelton about what investors should expect "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit
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just look around. this digital age we're living in, it's pretty unbelievable. problem is, not everyone's fully living in it. nobody should have to take a class or fill out a medical form on public wifi
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with a screen the size of your hand. home internet shouldn't be a luxury. everyone should have it and now a lot more people can. so let's go. the digital age is waiting. well, we fell in love through gaming. but now the internet lags and it throws the whole thing off. when did you first discover this lag? i signed us up for t-mobile home internet. ugh! but, we found other interests. i guess we have. [both] finch! let's go! oh yeah! it's not the same. what could you do to solve the problem? we could get xfinity? that's actually super adult of you to suggest. i can't wait to squad up. i love it when you talk nerdy to me. guy, guys, guys, we're still in session. and i don't know what the heck you're talking about.
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fed chair jay powell set to discuss what lies ahead for interest rates later today our next guest says there will be some pain ahead joining us now, judy shelton, a senior fellow at the independent institute. he's also the author of money meltdown, restoring order to the global currency system judy, it's good to have you with us i don't know whether we can -- whether we get any payoff from trying to discuss what jay powell is actually likely to say. i think we have a pretty good
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idea i would more like to get your comments on where the economy is right now. there are a lot of crosscurrents. this yield curve, i don't know whether this is still as relevant as it once was. but the 78 basis points, that's the biggest inversion since 1981, is the fed maybe looking at the wrong things in the economy to decide whether they've been effective in cutting demand already if they look at housing, they should be finished but if they look at other things, jobs, the consumer, maybe they're just getting started. what's real? >> well, i think the fed is hoping to see -- their goal would be to have rates so restrictive that we have a decline in economic growth they would like to see unemployment go up effectively so we have these kind of signals for the fed, on the one hand,
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i -- i don't want to say happy, but it would indicate to them that their strategy is working to see all these big layoffs from predominant companies in silicon valley and elsewhere on the other hand, i think it's still a very tight labor marked, which would make them unhappy, except the fed is trying to kind of finesse it and say nobody has to lose a job. it's more like a one for one ratio between help wanted signs and labor participation. you know, in a way, joe, i have to say, even the fact that we're talking about this speech, this event today, which is kind of a press conference in advance of the post meeting press conference in two weeks, and being so addicted to trying to parse the statements and bring
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insights and look for hints about what the fed is going to do, i think we've gotten far too addicted to the fed. it's having way too prominent an effect on financial market performance. and that's a big problem we can expect chair powell to start off, probably, he's been doing this since the august jackson hole conference and then both post meeting conferences since then, within the first minute of his prepared remarks, he says price stability is the responsibility of the federal reserve. but, in fact, i think the inflation, which is a focus of all the fed's efforts these days, is -- can be traced, according to a fed study by three of their own economists that came out last month, to all of those fiscal transfer
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payments that raised what they called excess savings for households what it means is, it put 2.3 trillion in the accounts of people and they started spending that money and only about a quarter of that amount has come down since the end of last year there's still a lot of demand and i think it's really -- the fed may take responsibility, but it's congress and the white house who came up with programs and approved the money to pay people not to work and that's a huge factor in this inflation. and i don't think the fed is hardly acknowledging it. expect in these rather scholarly reports prepared for the board that the rest of us aren't talking enough about >> it just seems to raise a lot of questions or risks. because if what is causing the labor market to be tight is the result of something different than what we've seen in the
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past, which causes a wage price spiral, then simple i hurting demand or cutting demand isn't necessarily going to be the fix for it you may cut demand way more in trying to influence the labor market, you may keep raising rates, it's still not work it's still not work. to what you just completely buried, the housing market you completely bury any new investments from sbmall businesses because rates are too high you're not even addressing the reasons for the labor market being tight. >> when you raise interest rates, you're putting so much pressure on small business i mean, the costs of carrying the interest on a business loan is part of their overall business expense you're increasing their costs, which they really have to either pass on or start to shut down
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their business and if they have to let people go, all it does is cutout put, cut supply, and it's the lack of supply really to the demand which is already baked into the pie. those people still have those funds. they still have the excess savings. because the monetary part of the buildup of the excess savings is that wealthier people increased equity value, home values, so that gave them more spending power, and lowering from people just got pure cash transfers from the government. so that has to play out, but meantime, the fed will look at continuing inflation, even if it starts to go down a little because i think inflation is kind of slated to come down in spite of the feed. the meantime, they're hurting the supply side. people, when you let them go, collect unemployment
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now you're back to that issue of people getting paid which gives them purchasing power, which increases the demand, which puts pressure on prices that they are not contributing to output so that, i think, is where the fed needs to re-examine its model and strategy for dealing with the inflation >> could inflation -- because of shelter deflation or disinflation or raw commodities for those prices coming down, could inflation moderate even in a tight labor market, or is that too strong -- look at what's happening with the rail workers. 24% over five years. maybe it's about sick days but that's a pretty good increase we're seeing other increases across the board in labor costs. could we tame inflation without raising unemployment. >> yes yes. and i thought we had gotten rid of that phillips curve
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mentality. economic growth is not inflationary low unemployment is not inf inflationary it's about funding and not just the speculative playing with interest rates look, you talked about the yield curve. the fed is now going to be offering -- well, it will probably average -- they'll be paying about 4.4% on 5.6 trillion in cash so look at that as a short-term investment overnight money, you can get over 4% from the federal reserve, maybe going up to 5%, in the first part of next year, for doing nothing. the money is not buying anything it's not funding anything. that is how the fed raises interest rates they keep that cash from entering the real economy. it's just sterile. the fed is an independent
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government agency. so the fed can say, we take responsibility for price stability, but there's no real accountability and i just wish that in a way the fed -- we could get rid of all the politeness and the fed could kind of say to congress, it would be helpful if you didn't pay people not to work and i think at some point, congress should look at the mechanisms the fed uses and say it would be helpful if you didn't pay the banks not to lend. we just need to get back to a productive economy and monetary policy has to work the same for everyone. what it has been doing is -- i think the fed has been showing -- not on purpose, but practicing a kind of monetary favoritism that benefits some segments of our society at the expense of people who don't, people who just have savings accounts, and the fiscal
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transfers sort of try to reconcile it and get people through a negative income shock caused by the pandemic but now the overhang of that is -- that's what is spurring the spending and the inflation and we just need to reconcile the need for both sound money and sound finances in our government. >> judy, we had two back-to-back negative gdp quarters. will we -- historically look back and say that was a recession, number one, and will there be a recession next year in your view how severe will it be if we do have one given the -- what these policies we're pursuing, it seems like they're trying to orchestrate it so they're going to get that they want. can we just assume that there will be a recession, because that's what the goal is with the way you do demand side -- are you trying to influence things
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from the wrong side? >> if you don't welcome growth, then that already says that in a sense, if you're -- if you're conditioned to believe that it takes decline in economic growth to squeeze out inflation, then you can expect the fed to hang tough. and i think that's a message we're going to be hearing from chairman powell today. but the fed could raise rates to stratospheric levels, to 10%, but if congress decides to say ratchet up child tax credits or continue to forgive student loan or delay, making people pay student loan, if we see wage demands because of strikes or potential strikes, if we see
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pressure on the supply chain, again, because of the strikes or other issues that could come up, i think -- there's nothing the fed could do to cure those kind of economic problems >> all right judy shelton, thank you. when is your next op-ed. i'll be looking for it don't tell us. surprise us. >> okay. >> thanks. >> thanks, joe bye-bye. when we come back, protestors in china's major manufacturing city of guangzhou clashing once again with hazmat-suited riot police overnight. we will speak to the ceo of the asia society and the former prime minister of australia, kevin rudd, about china's covid policies and the impact on doing business there "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: time now for today's aflac trivia question. what are the top three highest grossing movies so far this
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>> announcer: now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. what are the top highest
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grossing movies so far this year the answer, top"top gun: maveri" jurassic world, and dr. strange. this was the scene in china's major manufacturing city of guangzhou last night where protestors clashed once again with hazmat-suited riot police the demonstrations come after 24 hours of relative calm following sunday's widespread protests over covid lockdowns joining us now is kevin rudd, the former prime minister of australia and currently serves as president and ceo of the asia society. kevin, this looks like the biggest protest that we've seen since going all the way back to tiananmen square >> these protests are covering a
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lot of different bases it's about covid lockdown and that's the case across the country. people are fed up with it and there's no easy answer to it from the regime's point of view. but it becomes a vehicle through which other activity is being generated about other forms of discontent with the state of the economy as well. as for next steps, i think the regime has already begun to crackdown not through mass arrests on the streets, but through using surveillance cameras to track people down later on and to frankly take them into custody from their homes rather than before international television cameras. >> it's unnerving to see president xi has been granted basically lifetime -- lifetime tenure in this job
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how secure is his hold on that job? >> it's deeply secure. he's been in office now ten years. he spent the first five years in office consolidating his power as china's frankly number one, two and three. he's eliminated anyone who is directly opposed to him during his five fires years in office and the most recent 20th party congress, those who came from a different tradition from the party, they were given early retirement and placed by people who have been almost lifelong supporters of his. one other thing as well we should mention, overnight we've heard news that the former general secretary of the chinese communist party died at the age of 96. you might think, what does that matter in history, both in the '70s and the '80s, when former chinese leaders die and there is associated public protest activity, sometimes this can
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generate dynamics in chinese politics which become quite unpredictable. overnight in china, people will be watching carefully whether there is spontaneous protest activity as people reflect back on a more open period of administration under the former general secretary. >> it's all pretty concerning, trying to read what comes out of this the economy is not front and center it's not the most important issue coming out of this human rights, democracy obviously come first but we're a financial network and we're going to be looking at how this plays out australia, your country, up until 2020 went 30 years without a recession and that was because of its proximity to china, amazing growth took place there. you did run into a recession in 2020 when things turned down and it looks like you could be facing another one as a result of the changing fortunes of the chinese economy. what does that weaker economy mean to the globe, what does it mean to china, and what does it
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mean to xi >> well, you're right in terms of what's on our television screens representing politics pure and simple. but underneath it, you're correct also to point out that it goes to underlying weaknesses in the chinese market growth there are three big factors we should focus on, number one is covid and the inability of the regime to exit out of what they called zero covid because they failed to introduce effective vaccination levels for older people and they're concerned about lives -- deaths among old people if they put all the brakes off their current covid regime the second big one is the overhang of demography the population peaks next year and it's already becoming rapidly aged and the birthrate is the second lowest in asia and the workforce has been shrinking for the last seven years but the final one is ideology.
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and what xi jingping has done over the last five years is move the center of gravity of chinese economics and politics much more to the left and the private sector is therefore, deeply concerned about the future investment of the chinese economy. private fixed capital investment under challenge. this year, we're likely to see growth bumping along at 2% but i looked carefully at the imf data for next year and the year after, and it's not getting a whole lot better there needs to be a u-turn on covid policy and/or a change on ideology there's not much they can do about demography if chinese growth levels are going to be restored for themselves and the world. >> so what should our response be how should we deal with all of this >> the undeterms of what's unfon before our eyes, there's many of
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governments around the world have said people deserve the right to peacefully protest. on the economic measures, the sooner the chinese can crab walk their way out of zero covid and the more international governments can encourage them to do that, then it's for the restoration of chinese growth and the restoration of global economic growth. if we have a sick chinese economy for the next two to three years, let me tell you, if we're heading into a recession in the advanced economies early in 2023, then a poor chinese growth number frankly deepens a recession which may be already under way in it's dynamics around the world. >> kevin, it's good to see you kevin rudd is the former prime minister of australia and serves as the president and ceo currently of the asia society. >> still to come, aei president
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emeritus arthur brooks gives us his take on elon musk and his twitter overhaul and something we're calling mbs, which is musk derangement syndrome this is "squawk box" on cnbc >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird, visit
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today the biden administration embarks on the final drawdown period under a massive 180 million barrel release program of the spr that was designed to lower prices at the pump for consumers for a closer look and what else the biden administration is considering as a cold winter approaches, we're joined by kayla tausche. >> it marks the beginning of the end on the tool that has lowered gas prices over the year 260 million barrels have been released since november of last year and over the next month, the reserve will deliver 15 million barrels of oil to six companies, including shell, that complete that 260 million barrel drawdown, further depleting the stocks which most recent data shows stood at 390 million barrels. that's half of the reserve's
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capacity and the lowest level since the mid-1980s. the biden administration is anticipating a renewed push to refill the reserves with republicans taking the house and develop committee members writing in june, it's imperative that doe maintain the nation's petroleum reserves in a manner that does not limit our ability to prevent the impacts of supply shortages. but the white house doesn't plan to do anything until february i'm told with prices expected to be volatile. senior officials leaving the door open to future drawdowns from the reserve or refilling it if prices stay under $72 a barrel but any process would take six weeks to implement so stability is key. the biden administration is also considering asking congress to double the amount of storage of heating oil in northeast reserves according to two people familiar with the matter heating oil, of course, is a
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former of diesel that's at risk of running in short supply ahead of a cold winter ahead the department of energy tells me, that they're below average and the industry is working with industry lawmakers to identify all options available, but stability is key, as i mentioned, and any of those options takes time >> they take time. and it feels like we've been working our way through all the low-hanging fruit. there's not much left. >> no, there's not much left and certainly there are different levers that they have been wanting to pull and the lack of clarity into where prices are going to go makes this difficult there was reporting that the administration was looking to refill it when oil went under $80 a barrel when i talked to officials, they said, we would love thood that but we don't know how long a period of time it will be. that's why it's been difficult for the administration to figure
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out which way to go in >> we looked at wti falling below $74. it was 73 and change earlier this week. only for about that long and then it was gone thank you. we will see you a little later. later in the program, the special enjoy coordinator amos hochstein will join us. >> and coming up, author brooks. today's featured guest is picking up some of the biggest names in the market, some smaller stocks he thinks may have room to run he's also taking your questions. just go to at 3:00 p.m. stn daeaertoy.
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elon musk has stirred up his fair share of controversy since taking over twitter prompting some to steer away from tesla. case in point, alyssa milano, she was on the view yesterday. joining us now to tell us whether consumers are choosing principles over product, what happened to climate change, or is there another example of cancel culture let's bring in arthur brooks,
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president emeritus and harvard professor. he's a contributor for t"the atlantic" and hosts how to build a happy life podcast the two sides, despite your efforts, they're getting further -- they're getting further apart. i look at what they were talking about on "the view" -- i mean, on "the view" yesterday and i look at some of the interviewed yesterday and i look at some of the interviews i did yesterday, we are so far apart at how we view the world, arthur is this twitter's fault in the first place? >> joe, i can imagine you coming home from "squawk box" and turning on "the view" because that's how you like to spend the middle of your day. >> see the orange? i can't. i couldn't i wouldn't never. >> the truth is, what you're talking about here is another example of the fact that activists are trying to bully companies, trying to bully citizens, trying to basically bring all of us into their culture war. it's time for us to stand up i've talked about this for the past six months because i've seen it increasingly
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i travel around. i talk to ceos all the time. one of the things we need to tell ceos they're really not aware of at this point, ordinary citizens as well -- all the best ceos in america are watching us now. 3% of your employees are activists instead of working and they're blowing up your slack channel right now demanding that you get involved in a culture war and make political statements don't do it! the rest of your employees are feeling bullied as well. their co-workers are being bullied by the activists it's time to say i will not be constricted into america's culture war. we're going to make good products we're going to help people we're going to lift each other up by the way, we don't hate each other in this country. 93% say they hate how divided we've become the other 7% are the activists if you buy a tesla it means that somehow you believe in hate speech it's completely absurd and it's called a bully
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>> it's done without -- >> all on twitter. >> it's done with total impunity, too. i've never seen a nazi word used so many times or white supremacist used so many times idea defend elon musk or free speech when did i become a white supremacist? it's not right people should rein it in but they're not going to >> well, we have to disregard it the most important thing to keep in mind is that something like 15% of americans are actually involved on twitter. a very small percentage of them are producing the overwhelming amount of tweets about politics but it gets disproportionate coverage because it's so outrageous this drowns out people who want ordinary conversations, talk about the news, have noncontroversial opinions. we have this gresham's law of good being pushed out by bad. >> there's so much grist for
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both sides let me talk about tim cook and apple. i expressed some dismay that two people i think very highly of, he and elon musk, are they really at odds with each other is this more of the activists pushing the viewpoints of both sides? so at the same time, i can see how tim would be worried about advertisers appearing next to things on twitter that might get through an elon musk content moderation world it might get through and tim cook wouldn't want it to be there. then i also see because of whatever financial concerns, apple seems to appease the ccp they made some move to do, i don't know, disallow something that played into the hands of censors. >> the holl o low kansas state th -- holocaust thing. if you are going to take your
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news from twitter, you are getting your news from trolls. watch "squawk box" and turn off the news after that. that's my recommendation to america. >> elon musk, what's the line he should tow and i'd also go back to when the left didn't really want to control everything that we saw they used to -- the aclu used to march with very unsavory groups just to defend their ability to say what they were going to say. now they don't even -- you know, no one on twitter is saying you're going to start blocking liberals it's just not blocking conservatives that's gotten an entire group of people, their nickers are all twisted pause you're not going to block conservatives anymore. >> this is not just one side either, joe. we have to recognize that you're going to get canceled from your friends on the right unless you tow the line with a populist conservative that are talking about how free trade is bad, how immigration is bad look, it's insane.
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have your own views. that's the point think for yourself this is america. ceos need to think for themselves ordinary citizens need to think for themselves. >> what's allowed on twitter then you've got -- i mean,the biden administration, they're going to watch closely on twitter. what, so there was a time when they were watching closely and making sure that a wuhan origination couldn't go on twitter for covid? no, we can't have that who did that benefit do people want to be able to control what's on twitter, politicians? which is akin to what goes on in china. >> yeah, no. obviously that was a huge mistake. elon musk is quite correctly trying to address the fact there was too much censorship and it was all going almost completely for one political point of view and he's trying to balance the equation other people are trying to make business decisions that make sense for their businesses and corporate bottom line. that's good. twitter is trying to build up
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this whole idea there's a big cage match going on between elon musk and tim cook. those are really smart guys running really, really good businesses it's not going to happen don't fall for that. that's the most important thing be to keep in mind tim cook is not thinking about how he's going to get elon musk. we need to move on from these ideas and not be bullied into taking some sort of side in a culture war. here's the bottom line here's the most important thing for us to keep in mind look at the data on what americans actually think, including the employees of all of these corporations that are mack nip pew lated into trying to take political stances. we don't hate our neighbors. we actually are very accepting of diverse points of view. the overwhelming majority of us want to live in harmony with people with whom we disagree we just had thanksgiving with people whom we disagree. aunt marge, we love her. she won't stop talking about trump. it doesn't matter. that's the whole point if we can keep that front and
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center we've got a fighting chance of getting our country back. >> tip and ragan i know i'm trying -- i'm there with some people. it's weird that i am there with some -- if i like someone, we have to put aside some of these disagreements but i'm seeing it less and less, arthur. you're still hopeful you're not throwing in the towel? >> no, i'm very hopeful. this is the opportunity of a lifetime >> you went to harvard, right into the belly of the beast to skew this stuff. that's what i'm going to do. i'm going to go -- there's no use staying in an echo chamber and talking to people who agree with you i'm going to go and talk to people who disagree with me and hug them. >> you know what, they're very good to me at harvard because they want different points of view, too. look, i get it on twitter it looks like we all hate each other, we're ready for secession movements and civil war. it's not true. it only becomes true if we believe the activist minority.
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>> where do you live >> i live in needham, massachusetts. >> the people's republic of cambridge. >> no, i live in needham, cambridge. >> i know that area well. >> see ya. >> thanks, arthur. i'm following you with the cameras. when we come back, white house energy adviser amos hochstein joins us we are expecting the adp employment number. re t's coming at 8le:15. he'she futures ahead of our data "squawk box" will be right back.
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ee. good morning jay powell's left a message for the markets. investors listening closely to his comments. in just minutes we're going to speak with amos hochstein on all of the decisions, whether we'll get a russian price cap. the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now.
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good morning, everybody. welcome back to "squawk box. this is cnbc we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe concern than and andrew is standing by at the new york times deal book. good to see you. >> good morning. >> we'll be back with you in just a second. want to look at the u.s. equity futures at this hour we've been around the flat line. most of this continues to be the case the nasdaq and s&p is closed lower. the dow was up just barely. dow futures up by 10 points. s&p up by 5. nasdaq up by 35. if you take a look at treasury yields, the 10-year's been around 3.7% in terms of the yield. 3.783% with the four year at
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4.479. cryptocurrency in focus. bitcoin hitting a high of over $17,000 earlier this morning the best level in three weeks. it's just below that at 16,800 some of the stories investors are talking about today. first you have up, house speaker nancy pelosi plans to bring a bill to the floor this morning to prevent a rail worker strike that could cost the u.s. economy billions of dollars a day. with multiple unions against a labor agreement, president biden has asked congress to step in. it's expected to get a bipartisan vote although several senators may try to slow things down this agreement would boost worker pay by 24% over five years and give bonuses of $5,000 retroactive to 2020. paid sick leave has been a major sticking point for the unions not in favor of that deal. again, with congress moving, it looks like the negotiating time on this has run out. apple is making progress in diversifying its supply chain away from china.
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a reuters analysis shows china was the supplier of app production sites according to reuters, analysts expect troubles if the fox con plant will leave apple to continue retreating from china perhaps our top stock mover of the morning, shares of verizon therapeutic and they are talking about sale with several pharmacy companies. horizon makes drugs for rare autoimmune diseases and the stock spiked on the news up 30%. >> no small cap stock either $18 billion market cap before the move today let's get over to our senior markets commentator, mike santoli. there will become a day when you won't be called a senior anything, mike for now i guess it's okay.
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what are you watching this final day of november? >> i'm going to graduate beyond senior okay i don't look forward to that moment >> grad school >> yeah,what are we watching here the s&p 500 has been hovering at around this 4,000 mark, plus or minus, for 2 1/2 weeks it has been a sideways move. so far been holding that pop we got on the cooler than expected kr cpi data don't fight the fed has been the move series of highs. making a bid to maybe show that this whole range bound period, who knows, could be a real messy bottoming process. i say don't fight the fed has been a good rule look where we are around 4,000 we've been here several times since the spring this goes back to when the fed funds rate was around 1% we're topping out and going higher in a couple of weeks. so clearly it's not only about what the fed is doing. yields have definitely gone up
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others have more kind of come in to provide support talking about apple as a drag on the market yesterday, it was almost the entire region. the s&p 500 was down because of its weakness we have the iphone production issues also what's going on, this premium that apple has built up over the other tech stocks, this is the equal weighted tech index as well as the nasdaq over the last year, it's starting to get eaten into it shows you everything looked the same right about that point early -- late last year i guess it was or early this year and then it sort of diverged apple has shown the safety premium. it's responsive to what the fed is doing it also has been going pretty much sideways around these levels since mid october that's when the market bottomed. that's when it seemed as if wall street started to get somewhat more comfortable with the idea we don't have the two-year note yield. with the idea we've priced the fed's path reasonably well at this point who knows if that's going to
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prove true here you see, that's where we're going back a plateau in the rise. now as the fed slows down, we'll see if the two-year note yield is showing signs of topping out. >> seems like we're at an important point, i think, mike we could either be one friendly data point away from something that's really spring loaded like we had two good inflation numbers so far, maybe we get another one and you know the p word will come back with us with a vengeance at that point. or we get some data point like on friday which says, wow, we aren't even making a dent in the strong labor market and then i could see us, you know, even giving back some of these hard-fought gains we had for the past month i don't know i really don't know, do you? >> no. >> why are you the senior markets comment tater if you don't know >> i'm the one that's there to remind you the most important p
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word in this whole game is probabilities. all you can do is sum up the range of probabilities there are multiple other p words. i know you're talking about pivot but pause is also in there. >> pause, pivot. >> we'll see what powell does. >> perhaps >> perhaps what others, mike? >> pivot's a good one. >> those are four right there. the. >> swivel. that's an s word thanks, mike >> mike, i think he only meant there's going to be a point where you don't want to be called a senior. >> a point you don't want to be called senior anything, senior discount, senior this, senior that. >> i'm so far from that, joe, it doesn't even come into play. >> me, too i've got it. i'm not saying i know. i'm saying i've heard that >> bye, mike. >> we'll see you later. right now as promised we want to get over to andrew who joins us from the new york deal book summit.
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>> thank you it's funny because deal book's turned 21 years old this year. as you guys know, i started in my pajamas back in the day when we were sending out the newsletter by fax machine. today we have millions of people who get it every single morning. we have a huge day ahead dipping in live throughout the day bringing you all the coverage. let me bring you a sense of what's on tap. kicking things off i'm going to be speaking with treasury secretary janet yellen here. then later we'll speak to blackrock ceo larry fink on deck, amazon ceo andy jassy given everything that's going on in tech, layoffs, labor and more then in the afternoon we've all talked about the netflix correction repeatedly. the man himself, netflix co-founder rea er reed haysingsd tiktok and the security issues the ceo is here.
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we're going to spend some time with ben affleck starting a new studio mark zuckerberg is going to spend some time with us and then at the end of the day, this is the one i think a lot of people have been waiting for, it's creating a lot of controversy. i'm speaking with ftx founder sam bankman-fried. a lot of questions to be asked and answered accusations of fraud, misrepresentation, mismanagement. we're going to get into all of it nothing is off limits. i should say because i know there's been a lot of questions about it it is going to be live streamed for free anybody can watch it we are going to be putting out a link as planned a little bit later today and all of this will be available on cnbc as well so a big, big day ahead. >> andrew, that's what we've been talking about earlier, this interview with sam
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bankman-fried. he seems whackier and whackier with the things you read i know you're going to hold him down i can't wait to see it. >> criticism is innate it's misplaced if you go to interview john wayne gacy are you advocating for serial killers of course you're going to -- didn't you go off to -- you've been to prisons to interview white collar criminals. >> yeah. >> you don't want to -- you're not endorsing or enabling. it's already done, whatever this guy did, you're just trying to get to the bottom. i don't understand the criticism. i don't understand it. do you >> look, there are a lot of people who are upset, rightly so they have been hurt. they have been injured they have lost in some cases their entire life savings. >> more reason to -- >> i understand and i hope -- i hope -- i hope -- >> more reason to be -- >> that's right. i hope we can do this for the public's benefit and for their
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benefit so we can try to untangle so much of what has happened here. >> well, andrew, we will be watching i know you will ask all these tough questions. >> we're not even sending you any, andrew. we know you've got this. >> thanks. thank you. >> thanks, andrew. we'll see you a little later huge lineup. we're exciteds for you. >> whae ve november's adp employment numbers don't go anywhere. the holidays are here. and dick's sporting goods has all the best gifts for everyone on your list. the hottest footwear from jordan, nike, and hoka.
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kinda like this- welcome to 30 rock! join xfinity rewards for free on the xfinity app today. our thanks. your rewards. futures ahead of the adp jobs data. as you can see, we're up a little bit and it is now time for the november report. cnbc's steve liesman has the number hey, steve. >> good "morning joe," 127,000 adp estimates -- they're not estimating they're just saying. this is what it went up by that's the difference in the new adp data they're not trying to estimate the government numbers, they're saying that their estimate of national private payrolls rose by 127,000 in november it's the most since january
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2021 below the estimate for the street for adp and also below the nonfarm payroll estimates by 200 thousand the details are actually very interesting. we can take a look at some of those details in there among them, take a look small business down by 51,000. medium business up by 246. large business is down by 68,000 perhaps some of those announced layoffs that we've seen are starting to bite now look at the sector detail, which is kind of crazy leisure/hospitality coming back. it has been one of the big job engines of the last several months as they try to get back the million jobs they're down from the pandemic. trade and transportation up by 62,000 that could reflect hiring for the christmas season education up by 55,000 negative, professional business services down 7,7,000.
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and manufacturing, i'm having a hard time with that number financial activities down by 34,000 information down by 25,000 now we are still seeing substantial pay increases though not as much as had been in the past those remaining in their job and getting new contracts are up by 7.6% job changers still doing very well, up by 15.1%. put it altogether, the adp chief economist said turning points can be hard to capture in the labor market, but our data suggests that federal reserve tightening is having an impact on job creation and pay gains. i don't think the fed is going to feel like labor market tightness we're concerned about has alleviated i'm sure it's going to like to see slower payroll growth. >> more payroll growth is still positive
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we don't know if goldilocks says there's just right on all these numbers, steve >> yeah. >> thanks. >> true. now to a developing story out of washington. kayla tausche reporting in the last hour that the white house is considering calling on congress to double a cap on heating oil stores to fill up reserves in the winter joining us is amos hochstein we see a lot of amos we appreciate that good morning >> good morning, joe how are you? it's good to see you again >> i'm good. because we see you a lot i feel like i really know you so i know what's coming i want to -- just before we start, just take a victory lap about how prices are down and we've seen this, done this, done all these other things can we just start with conceding that a lot of it has been done on the demand side, amos some of it has been done on the supply side with the spr, but people argue whether that was a
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good move or not a lot of it due to maybe the zero covid policy in china the feds raising rates trying to slow down the economy. on the supply side, maybe not as much >> well, i think there's certainly been some effect in the market on china, but remember that while we have a reduction in demand from china, we've also had a reduction in supply announced by more significant volume by saudi arabia so i think the supply side has made a difference here i think it's very hard to argue against the -- i know you say some people criticize. very difficult to understand criticism of 180 million barrels of the release can you just imagine the last few months with -- if we had reduced to $16 million a day just impossible to imagine that the prices today would be as -- lower than they were, as low as
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they are now by the way, i think they're up today. they've been up the last few days so we like the trajectory of prices going down. the president wanted to see more production and most importantly, wanted to see more going into inventory as we started seeing some of that, of companies putting a little bit more into inventory. we're glad to see that we still need to see more of it though s. >> yeah. a lot to impact there. we'll try to do it part of i guess the criticism from this, amos, is now we're talking to chevron in venezuela about increasing the supply there but still not -- i know you're going to say that we like the oil companies, we want them to produce they've got 9,000 permits. i've heard it all so much. it was ten days ago the president again said, president biden, maybe you tried to talk him out of it, i don't know what you do it, but when he says we're going to end drilling
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domestically, that causes the major oil producers to not want to inbe -- invest long term. you say we like them, we want them to produce. give me a number on hong low do you want them to do it for five more years, ten more years? how long will we need these major oil producers to keep producing? is what does he mean, we're going to end drilling? >> eventually we are going to be phasing out. >> what is eventually? what's eventually? you're not going to want to invest any money in doing this if it's two or three from now or five years out. >> i don't think we're talking about two, three years talking about longer than that as you know well, the production in the united states, it's short cycle, relatively short cycle production there can be invest. and recovery of those investments happens at a much shorter cycle than off shore,
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deep water and those kinds of investments that are more expensive and take significantly more time to recover so we understand that the economy in the united states and around the world is going to be using oil for several more years as we transition look at our own goals. our goal has been to have 50% of new car sales by 2030 be electric vehicles. that tells you that -- how much longer we still see oil in the market, and that's just 50% of new car sales. by 2035, even if we go to 100% of new car sales being electric, you still have the entire fleet there. you know we make other things from oil as well >> we need to power the grid we need to power the grid with hydrocarbon. several more years is going to be several more decades probably that you would acknowledge that we're probably going to be using carbons in some form. >> look, i'm very grateful we
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don't power our grid with oil so let's separate out the oil and gas. on the oil side we're going to see -- we're still going to have demand for the next couple of years. enough -- enough time to allow oil companies to increase production so that we can have a powering of -- a repowering of the american economy which is what we're looking at and the lower price to consumers you know we're down around 3 1/2 dollars and most americans are seeing gasoline. we want to see that continue >> is it faster to get a payoff in venezuela >> no. let me -- hold on, joe let's talk about venezuela. >> he doesn't invite elon musk when -- president biden when he's talking about evs he doesn't invite the major oil companies domestically to come to the white house
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we go to venezuela these are the things that critics would say don't make any sense. >> joe, let's put some order down the chevron license in venezuela was incentive to kick start the process, the political process at mexico city, which is a huge breakthrough that we were able to achieve for the talks between the regime and the opposition and that happened on friday. the license to venezuela is very small. the production is tiny the amount of oil that will come to the united states is not all that significant outside of tax and royalty, the profits are not going to go into the hands of the madura regime, it's going to go to pay against debt to the u.s. companies there's not a lot there. this is not going to venezuela for oil. and that's pretty clear from the volumes that we're talking about here but we are talking to the
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american companies and i have to tell you they have been to the white house. they've talked to senior staff and as the president calls on him, increase the production we need more in the united states we need more on the products, on the refined goods. we need products in our inventories on the east coast and other places in order to make sure we have a secure economy in the summer over the hurricane season and now for the winter we're having those conversations as well. and so we are grateful that we're able to see that the company started finally increasing production, finally bringing down some of the prices at the pump and i think that's the conversation we want to continue to have >> the refiners, you know, it's not a monolith the people that bring down prices at the pump aren't the same ones that are dealing with higher global oil prices i don't know i just -- it just doesn't seem
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like you're quite -- like the president really -- all we hear about is profit teering and we'e going to end taxes i don't know what i would do. >> i think the constant windfall profit tax is if there was not increased production, if we don't see prices coming down and we see record profits, we have to do something about it >> that's global you blame it on putin when it goes up but then you say you can lower it at any time that doesn't make any sense. >> no, increased production. spr. >> i don't know if i'd invest money in increased production if you are going to end drilling. tell him to stop saying that you get to see him seems like he only listens to one side of the argument, the way out there side of things what about the spr is it a time to buy or sell those? will you be adding and buying it back in? are there going to be more spr
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drawdowns if we stay at 80 bucks if the saudis cut production again? will we try to even sell more? >> well, i think what we've done is -- consistently is since the ramping down the 1 le 0 million barrel release, we said we'd look at the market and how it affects the global economy and american economy and so far we said we would consider increasing production -- sorry, purchases into the spr to replenish once we got to somewhere around the $70 range on a consistent basis. we're definitely not there yet and we have to see where the market goes. we have a number of things coming up just in the next week. we have opec plus having their meeting next week on december 5. the oil ban into europe and shipping band beyond that and a price gap potential coming next week as well so there's a lot to see where
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we're going to be and i think we want to make sure that we take the right steps in a measured way and i will say the president has taken very measured steps here he's wanted to be decisive but the goal has been consistent to have prices that are fair to the industry but fair to the consumers as well. >> amos, did i tell you thanks earlier for coming on? you mentioned like a tennis match where both sides said, no, no, no, that's your point. this is -- arthur brooks says this is what we need to do we appreciate the dialogue back and forth. >> always. >> very good as long as you like it, i like it thanks >> all right >> programming note, we're going to be talking friday with chevron ceo mike wirth don't miss that interview at 7 eastern time up next, revised look at third quarter gdp. "squawk box" coming right back
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the high water mark goes all the way back to 9% we have made great strides there. the core personal consumption, that's up 4.6. that was in june 2021.
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on the pricing index, up the highest. we have made strides there i want to point out 4.6 is sequentially higher, than 4.5 and that is something to point out. on the deficit, 99 billion wholesale inventories, up . 8. le retail down .2. this is not pay bad thing. if we summarize, we see it creep up a little bit. near unchanged right around 3.74% obviously everybody continues to pay attention to china even though the news is improving, there's a lot of effects of what's been going on whether it's the demonstrations, hard covid policies. service pmis, 46.7 composite of 47.1.
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these are super, super weak numbers. they're on pace for the lowest gdp in four decades. these are things to pay attention to becky, back to you >> rick, stay with us. we're going to want more of your input in a moment. let's check in with steve liesman as well. what do you think of the latest numbers on top of the adp? >> yeah. it's -- again, this was the -- it was this quarter or even early -- late last quarter was the one where we were supposed to be slipping into recession. instead in the second half of this year the economy has rebounded from the two negative numbers we got in the first half we're not essentially the core of the economy, they were not consumer spending and business spending these revisions on 2.9 came because you have upward revisions to business spending and consumer spending. remember, this is real gdp this is after we get done taking account for the 4% inflation that rick reported so nominal gdp is going to be
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6.9 or up near 7%. we take care of inflation and we're at 2.9% more additional activity at an annualized rate i'm interested to see what happens to the outlook at the fourth quarter as you recall, becky, we were tracking in the cnbc rapid update about a 2% growth update because of the strong retail sales numbers for october see if they continue in november. atlanta gdp is up 4%. this economy that is still at potential or in some cases a little bit above potential, i think that's a fed that wants to create slack. >> stay where you are. we want to add another voice tiffany wilding is north american economy at pimco. what are your thoughts, tiffany? this is a kind of crazy time we're looking at every single number to figure out where the economy is headed.
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what's your best guest >> i think there's a little bit of noise that you have to take into account because inventories and trade numbers can be volatile if you dig into the details of the third quarter gdp, what you find is when you exclude the more volatile categories, growth was pretty subpar so for the year as a whole, excluding those categories, we call that final domestic demand. growth is sub 1% at this point that's coming off of a robust year, 5% last year growth has decelerated core growth has decelerated quite a bit and that's even before you're really starting to feel the effects of fed policy and fed tightening because that works for the lag. we do think the economy slips into recession next year, but nevertheless, of course, it's always good news to have some slight upward revisions to the
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third quarter gdp growth. >> steve, if you were trying to figure out conventional wisdom, where does it stand in terms of the number of economists that are expecting recession, not just economists, watchers, traders, everybody else on this versus those who think you could have some sort of a crazy -- >> it's funny you ask that question, becky, because i was just looking at that this morning. i want to read you some of this commentary barclays before the gdp says we've delayed our estimate for the downturn our revisions allow spending into early 2023 pushing back the shallow recession that we had shown in our prior forecast by one quarter. avr denny is saying we think this time is different there's been no broad-based credit consumer credit -- i don't want to read too much of this basically they're in the soft landing camp as are the folks at oxford the so i was actually just thinking to see what happened on
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the report on friday for the jobs report but i'm wondering, becky, if the united states has canceled its appointment with the recession. due respect, i get what tiffany is saying that is the conventional wisdom out there. i'm wondering if maybe, maybe don't throw things at me we get out of -- >> i can't throw anything at you because you're not in studio. >> be in tomorrow. >> tiffany, it seems like this is -- i don't know how long you've been doing your job but it seems like this is one of the more difficult scenarios to figure out it's not like the globe is moving in lock step. we had a conversation with the former prime minister of australia this morning talking about how china has so much sway over what happens to anybody and if they have a recession at this point, that will have some serious global ramifications how do you put that into your models what are you thinking? >> yeah. i mean, certainly china has a big influence on global activity, in particular
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manufacturing activity i don't even think china has to go into an outright contraction of gdp they need to have what we call a growth recession, which is what they're having so growth slowing in china as a result of the credit policies and the housing policies and the effects on the economy is impacting global manufacturing activity certainly and that's going to continue to weigh on global activity but, you know, in addition to that, you know, obviously we've had, you know, the war in ukraine, which is having a big impact on europe we think europe probably slips into recession germany as a result of all of that geopolitical term moil. that global back drop is in addition to the financial conditions we've seen is going to make it very difficult, in our view, for the u.s. to escape some sort of mild recession. in addition to that, it does look like the underlying trend in inflation in the united states is around 4% and to bring that back to 2%, you know, we
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estimate you've got to get the unemployment rate up maybe close to 5, 5 1/2% 5, 5 1/2% unemployment relative to where we are today, call it 3 1/2, 3.7, that's going to feel like a recession people are going to lose their jobs the labor market needs to cool off. >> rick, let's give you the last quick word on this what number is going to be the most important is it going to be the friday jobs report? is it the jolts number that we get later today or do you have to wait for the next inflation numbers? >> you know what, i do think the jobs number friday will be important. consider 261,000 on last look was the lowest since 2020. it was minus 115,000 if you go pre-covid, it's the lowest since 2019. china the economy grew 3%. for the last three months potential negative growth. none of this is good when you add in europe some of
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the more pleasant surprises, the globe is going to have an issue. when you consider the direct impact on real estate and what's going on in tech industry with regard to interest rates, well, are those layoffs in an isolated arena? i don't think so as a matter of fact, i think as we move throughout the year you're going to see more effects being spread and this notion that savings pent up during covid have basically mostly run out. steve liesman has pointed that out in the past. i certainly don't think any of this data is going to preclude us from a light recession in 2023 your turn. >> i know we've got to go. >> we dothe. >> i know we've got to go. i just don't see how we get there with the as much. >> oh, we'll get there the we'll see. >> those interest rates are in the economy now. those are not lagged effects maybe it happens. >> guys, i'm sorry, we have to continue this. >> there's lots of people using credit cards that are going to slow their consumption. >> we get the opportunity to continue this conversation because we've got numbers all
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week rick, steve, tiffany, thank you guys by the way, when we come back, a live report from china as protests there return and a reminder, it is pro week all week on today's featured guest leon cooperman. he's taking your questions you can just go to 3 ps .m. eastern today. "squawk box" will be right back. at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will work with you on a comprehensive wealth plan across your full financial picture. a plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn. this is the planning effect.
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coming up, we're going to get jim cramer's take on all this morning's pre-market action. as we head to break, reminder you can get the best of "squawk box" on our daily podcast. follow "squawk pod" and listen any time we're coming right back.
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welcome back to "squawk box. protesters in china once again clashing with authorities there. eunice yoon joins us with more eunice, hello. >> reporter: hey, joe. well, the export hub guangjo is lifting most of its lockdowns and this is after videos emerged of what appeared to be quite violent clashes between residents and the authorities. this mood of the protestors as well as the public will probably be affected by another major political development today and that is the death of former president jiang zemin.
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jiang, who oversaw the country in the 1990s and early 2000s died in shanghai due to leukemia and organ failure. during his watch china entered the wto, hong kong was successfully handed over from the u.k. to china and mcdonald's, gm as well as a lot of other multi-national countries entered china which was in a period of tremendous opening up and reform. now in light of the covid protests that we've seen during the past several days, people have already been making comparisons with the tee enna men square protests in 1989. that was sparked by memorials after the death of another very senior leader in chinese politics who was revered by chinese reformers. so what -- for investors at this point what they should be watching for is whether or not we see public gatherings and
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vigils for jiang zemin do they eventually leave and add fire for a protest movement and what the impact could be to the power of president xi jinping. jiang was part of a competing faction to president xi. joe? >> eunice, once again, we appreciate your reporting from china. thank you. and we will see you again hopefully tomorrow let's get down to the new york stock exchange jim cramer joins us now with more got a gdp number, adp number, china. lots happening, jim. >> yeah, i guess people are going to say too hot i'm tired of it. got to wait on what powell says. then we have to wait for friday. i just think that there are things that are working, mostly in the dow things that are not working,
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mostly in enterprise software and that if you stay away from enterprise software and buy financials, buy industrials, you will be fine i don't want to do this kind of, well, i'm really scared. a lot of people are scared that's a stupid way to invest. >> we've talked about china a lot, jim, and you were kind of a china hawk before a lot of people were. i guess they haven't done anything to change your overall opinion of the way things are being handled. >> well, i don't know. i mean, the one group that they -- that the central committee there does not tangle with are the elderly i mean, the elderly are sanctified, so if the -- that's the -- the elderly basically has the divisions to stop president xi so we have to watch to see how much -- it's hard to tell how much the elderly are involved in protests, but that's the only group that could stop xi's view of zero kcovid, and it's not
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clear. the elderly are very suspicious of the vaccines and the vaccines are only 43% effective that's a rock and a hard place for them he can'troll the elderly it's just not right. it's not what they do there. >> would they say, jim, okay, i don't know whether they're already sort of indicating what their stance is going to be, but they're talking about the new variant being less deadly. is that opening up a way to start relaxing and if it's only 43% effective and you got a lot of old people, it just seems like the day of reckoning is coming. maybe we won't know how many people actually -- >> i think -- i mean, humana has said if you're fully vaccinated, then the flu is more deadly than omicron, but you have to be fully vaccinated the booster -- number of people who have taken the booster in china is very, very minimal, and the number of elderly, because they're suspicious of the vaccines, minimal, but they do have a reverse mrna.
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i still don't understand why -- maybe they were able to copy the mrna, basically steal it in our country, and i don't understand why they don't go for the reverse mrna for seniors >> i think they tried that -- >> i know. they haven't -- >> it's not okayed yet it's okayed in indonesia and people are saying maybe they're going to see if it works okay in indonesia. >> they don't force the elderly to do anything my father worked for the chinese, and geez, you revere the elderly over there it's one of the things i really love about the culture and i just don't think that -- they don't really know what to do with the elderly, because they revere them and they're not going to force them to do anything that's a good thing about china. >> there's always china first in a couple years, maybe, they'll revere us over there thank you, jim i think i'll stay here and take my chances don't miss a ceo triple header tonight on "mad money," the heads of hormel, snowflake, and salesforce, all be on tonight. we'lbeig bk.l rhtac ♪ ♪
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we are inching closer to fed chair jay powell's speech. early this afternoon, investors paying close attention, obviously. joining us to talk about the markets is mimi duff, managing
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director and advisor at gentra what do you want to hear from the fed head what do you think you'll hear? >> i think we're going to hear, steady ahead, basically. no change to the statements that he made after the last fed meeting, which is that, at some point, the pace of hikes will have to slow, but their work is not done yet, and i think we'll just get a reiteration of that today. >> the front page of "the wall street journal," we spoke about this earlier says that the treasury yield curve inverts to the deepest level we've seen since 1981 is that screaming any sort of a message? >> well, i think it's screaming a message -- two messages. one, that the fed is not done hiking the peak rate path is priced around 5% so that's another 100 basis points of hikes over the coming months, and the second bit is more that the ten-year part of the curve is pricing in some chance of economic slowdown, and it's also reacting
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to global yields, which have recovered quite substantially since the end of september so, that's how i would put that in context >> what do you think's going to happen next year recession coming for sure to the united states or no? >> we do have a mild recession in our baseline. that's our base case but i think that that is also the base case of -- that's cooked into the market i mean, most of the dealer research as well is in that sort of the base case here. >> you're also talking about the potential downside for equities here i know this is probabilities game we were talking about that "p" word, probabilities, with mike santoli earlier in the hour, but you think there's a 30% probability that we drop 10% from here? >> i think that's about right. but in the general context of how volatile equity markets tend to be, we don't really think that's completely outsized for now, we're very neutral in
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equities and fixed income, and we see potential to trade in this range for the coming months as we get more information on where the economy is and what the trajectory of inflation is as well. >> you know, it's all such a jumbled mess, trying to figure out what's happening with oil, trying to figure out what's happening with china, whether they're open, whether they'll be able to open, how that all plays out. how do you game it all right now? >> so, tactically, we're long-term investors, but tactically, we're trying to play a barbelled approach where we have positions in short-term inflation protection, and then on the other side, we're looking for opportunities and very cheap assets or assets that we think are opportunistically poised to perform well right now, we think biotech's very cheap uranium has the potential to perform very well. it's hard to store as the globe
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moves toward cleaner energy. we think that the nuclear energy will give uranium a boost. and norway, we also think, is poised to perform better on the energy independence and shift away from russian nat gas story. >> mimi, thank you it's really good to seeyou today. >> thank you so much >> mimi duff folks, we are just about out of time remember, we've gotten a lot of data this morning. that adp number came in a little softer than expected, 127,000 jobs created, versus the 190,000 that had been anticipated. gdp revised to higher numbers, 2.9% for the third quarter versus the 2.6% we got at the last look. this morning, futures turning down a little bit. dow futures off by about 35. the nasdaq, down by 4% after we had been a little higher remember, we get other big numbers this morning, including j.o.l.t., that's a pretty important one that economists
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follow, just to tell you how much movement there's going to be in the job market, and then of course, on friday, we get the big jobs number. if you're watching the treasuries right now, the ten-year is at 3.779%. the two-year is at 4.535 >> we didn't talk about soccer and iran ha, ha >> go, usa >> ha, ha. >> what a way to make that finish go, christian. that does it for us today. we'll see you tomorrow ♪ good wednesday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber is back at the new york stock exchange. big day, powell at brookings, that's the headliner lots of data, including a softer adp, slightly hotter revised gdp, and of course, final day of november today road map begins with the fed expectations, investors reading tea leaves from the fed chair about whether th


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