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tv   Street Signs  CNBC  February 2, 2023 4:00am-5:00am EST

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i'm andrea canning. thank you for watching. welcome to "street signs." i'm arabile gumede with joumanna bercetche at the bank of england and geoff cutmore with us. these are your headlines the u.s. central bank tightens at the lowest rate in year and now we turn to the bank of england which is expected to hike and shell with a re
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record-breaking $40 billion and revealing a buyback plan the ceo tells cnbc he saims to transform the company for the customer and shareholder >> simplification of the structure was to make sure we are structured in a way to deliver that vision with a real focus for me to be able to move us from a great company today to also being a great investment. falling demand for covid-19 diagnostic tests and drugs taking a bite out of roche earnings they are expecting a further fall in 2023 that means they are looking at a decline in the low single digit for sales and profits. >> we saw a decline of 1 billion swiss francs in covid sales.
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we expect a sharp decline of covid-19 related sales now the pandemic is finally coming to an end. deutsche bank slides after missing fourth quarter profit expectations despite the best and nual result in are 15 years. the cfo discusses the market sentiment with cnbc. >> fourth quarter tailed off a bit for us in november and december it still was a record quarter for the fourth quarter $8.9 billion for the year. it came short of expectation well, it certainly is central bank day, joumanna it is a day we are looking to the ecb and the bank of england with the interest rate decision. we saw the fed in the united states hike rates by 25 basis points and give out a message
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that interest rate hikes aren't necessarily done yet, particularly against the fight against inflation. the market is not necessarily believing that sentiment would it be a case of miscommunication do you think the fed or ecb and bank of england will give a clearer statement with the desire to keep the fight going on inflation >> arabile, it is an exciting 24 hours for the central bank community and anyone watching central banks to pick up on what you were saying about the fed and a couple of things were clear from what the fed chair said yesterday they are not quite done yet. perhaps they have another 25 basis points to go also, he didn't push back a lot on the loosening of financial conditions from the first month of the year stocks have done well in the
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month of january if he was uncomfortable with the bond yield, he might push back he didn't. that was a positive sign he said we have more to go, but perhaps they took comfort in the fact he did not push back on the looser conditions. markets are forward looking at this point and thinking if the fed does hike more, they will stop at some point and eventually the market is thinking about the potential for rate cuts perhaps later on in the year if the u.s. falls into recession. as for the ecb and bank of england, big day both of the central banks used language to indicate they want to be more forceful with action. bank of england used the word forcefully we will act forcefully that is indicative of the 75 basis points in the past the ecb talked about significant
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quote rate hikes the market has taken that to mean 50 basis points for the central banks today, the question will be on not what they deliver, but also what they plan to deliver in the future and trajectory of the rate hikes going forward. from that perspective, perhaps, it is interesting to note that maybe the ecb and bank of england are sounding more hawkish than uc.s. counterpart. >> the bank of england with the growth directory the imf looking at them saying they will perform worse than the likes of russia with the growth projection not necessarily helping their picture. how much more can they sustain the interest rate increases considering the weakened stance of the economy >> i think there was one really interesting remark yesterday at the press conference and the fed. powell at that point said he noted at this point inflation
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has started to drop. there is a notable deceleration in inflation without a big pickup in the unemployment rate, that is music to central bankers' ears in an ideal scenario, it would drop back to 2% without the economy entering into recession. the so-called soft landing if that materializes, that puts central banks in a better position than a couple monthsing ago. the tradeoff is less pronounced than keeping rates in restrictive territory and growth that is the hope for the ecb and bank of england. the bank of england is in a tricky spot because the economy looks like it is in recession. the imf forecast for the year is dy dire 0.2% the lowest in the g7 and developing economies for the bank of england, it is a more finally tuned decision. we will talk about that later,
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arabile. a massive day coming up for central banks. >> we will follow that with the market discussion. joumanna, we will chat later on. let's check in on the marketma markets. all green on following the united states which got a positive boost following the hike from fed chair jay powell the market picture moving higher with the dax being the one out of lockstep. 1.23% to the good. ibex in spain has positive movement a lot with the earnings news coming out over the last couple hours as you saw with shell going up and bp and roche with the earnings picture all of those critical and important. if you go to the sectors, technology stocks have taken a hike then today. a lot of that comes off the 19% gain from meta yesterday after it released earnings which came
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out. announcing $40 billion stock buyback and the fact that earnings were 1.76 per share. helping the technology sector. the banks is in position to see what happens dtoday with the ecb and bank ever of england let's get into the earnings news shell with $40 billion profit. the energy giant announce aid b -- announced a buyback program. steve talked to the ceo wael sawan. >> $40 billion of earnings record year. i feel privileged to be stepping into the role at a great point
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in the company's history as we look ahead, we have a unique opportunity to succeed as the winner in the energy transition we have a portfolio that, i think, is second to none we have an excellent up stream business a world leading lng business on the back of that, we hope to be able to support our customers on the journey to decarbonization and net zero we are focused on performance and capital discipline. >> we have seen a new simplified structure with the hydro carbon in one basket and the destination fuels in another as well tell us a little about the ratio rationale for that >> i chose to move quickly on the organization and pursuit of enhanced performance and
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discipline the idea is bring the upgraded gas with multiple touch points and common purpose to deliver energy for the world today on the other hand, our renewable business is all about coming back from the customer and make sure we deliver low-carbon solutions. green electrons or molecules the move around the simplification of the structure is to make sure to deliver that vision with the real focus for me to focus from the great company today to being a great investment roche has reported a net profit for the year, but the swiss giant says it expects a decline in earnings amid lower demand for covid treatments. geoff is here now with more on the story. certainly the covid pandemic
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pretty much waning on the demand and hurting their demand picture. perhaps having to look elsewhere with profits, geoff? >> reporter: this is a year of adjustment 2022 gives us a good sign post, arabile, of what to expect for 2023 already we saw, i think, that significant slowdown in both the diagnostic kits for covid-19 that roche produces and some of the drugs that are used to treat and try to prevent that disease. as the world is coming away from the pandemic and we get continued adjustment to the new world, it will mean that roche continues to see the sales drop out of its portfolio the important thing is, as far as roche, is concerned and existing shareholders continuing
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to nudge the dividend forward, the company also says it has a pretty good portfolio of products that are designed to treat non infectious related diseases cancer and heart disease and so forth. that will be the focus through the year alongside digitalization which is one of the big agenda goals refocusing down on the core message from roche this hour and let's listen in to the ceo in what he said in the last set of corporate earnings >> actually in line for the expectations of last year. a decline of 1 billion swiss francs in covid-related sales. we expect that to accelerate now that the pandemic finally comes
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to an end. we expect the decline of 5 billion swiss francs that is considerconsiderable >> it feels we are one variant away to being pitched back to some form of covid-related lockdown from your perspective, are we done with the disease or should we be concerned about the chinese reopening or concerned about the continued it threat of the resurgence >> i have to be careful what i say because in the past i already predicted the pandemic could come to an end and actually i was wrong as you point out, a new wave and variant. that is possible talking with the scientists and other companies in the space, the consensus is we are most
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likely now to move from the pandemic to endemic. as a consequence, the demand for the covid-related products will sharply decline. >> reporter: the other issue for roche, of course, which may be undermining confidence in the performance this year is the trio of cancer treatments that are now under attack from bio-similars those sales are also declining here it is very much on the company and the new ceo as he comes in later this year to demonstrate that they have new, innovative compounds to get over the trial line and capitalize on to restore some of the sales that will be lost as a result of the covid-19 product declines. arabile, back to you >> geoff, thank you so much for that on to more banking news.
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deutsche bank reported a 65% increase in full-year tax profit the highest in 15 years. net revenue rising by 7%. the german lender cost ratio declined and setting aside a provision of credit lost of 1.2 billion euro revenue at 27.2 billion euro that is 1 billion below what analysts expected. annette asked the cfo whether the top line miss is part of the underlining trend. >> for the year and quarter, revenues were up 7%. the business performance under that was quite strong. corporate bank was up 30% in the quarter. 23% in the year. our private bank up 11% in the year even the innvestment bank was up 4% in the year
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the fourth quarter tailed off in november and december, but still a record quarter in the business for fourth quarter 8.9 billion for the full year. as you say, it came short of the expectation and guidance late in the year >> let us look at the different divisions. the investment bank is important to you how did it start in the new year >> strongly. we had a good january. you know, volatility has continued into 2023. in a sense, perhaps, a surprise that the market conditions that we saw in 2022, perhaps not as dramatic, but persisted in 2023. that gives us encouragement that our general view which was that volatility and conditions in the macro businesses would taper off over time, but replaced, if you like, from the revenue per tive -- perspective like credit
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and m&a and debt issues we see that as a thesis for 2023 the beat in the fourth quarter with the net profit of 2.29 billion euro for santander. the bank is targeting double digit revenue growth for the year and sees the ratio for the year above 10% karen tso asked the ceo what she expects to come as the central banks continue to tighten policy. >> we posted record results. i like to point to the strength of the network which is at the base of the increase that is the highest result ever in a long time as we said, the net income should strengthen. we will see next year the much
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higher increase especially in europe overall, i would say, this is a balanced result. top line growth is double digit profit growth. cost of risk is as we predicted at the beginning of the year we are satisfied and happy and proud of the results >> it looks solo with the history above the 3% mark. in a rate hiking cycle, one wonders what changes in the portfolio. is this time any different because you have move data in hand with the digital bank or is there genuine risk >> this time is different from two fronts one is for everybody and the second is specific for santander. we believe this will be a different recession. in 9 of the 10 markets, employment is the highest level ever in countries like spain and other european countries, the
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consumer has less debt than ten years ago, for example uk also. at the end, employment is the most important factor for credit in our case. julius baer has a full year net income increase as the swiss lender but down to corrections in the stock and bond market the ceo told cnbc how external issues impacted the bank in the last quarter >> 2022 was a the chchallengingr with the war and some many external shocks. at the same time, the back drop producing the second best result the way we configured as a business, we want to be resilient across the cycle and be able to withstand external
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currents be it macroeconomics currents or industry currents. we demonstrated that last year and that gives me a lot of confidence for 2023. now coming up on the show, after wednesday's 25 basis point hike from the fed, we get the latest monetary policy decisions from the ecb and bank of england. we go across the street and to frankfurt next ah, these bills are crazy. she
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welcome back to "street signs. the bank of england is poised to raise rates for the tenth time today when they meet later with the anticipation of the 50 basis point hike lifting the benchmar to 4%. investors will look to see how close it is to hitting the peak rate joumanna, that was more on the story with threading the needle is what the bank of england needs to do. it was growth going down quite significantly set for this year. recession which was predicted an
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>> reporter: never has thread needle street been so apt. they will raise by 50 basis points today taking it from 3.5% to 4%. there are a few people out who could go to ar25 basis points hike let's go to the inflation standpoint cpi in december coming in at 7 continue to 2% these are very, very high numbers. inflation is running very hot indeed if you look at it from the inflation perspective, there is a lot of pressure on the bank of england with the monetary policy tightening the flip side is high inflation and high interest rates having a
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negative impact on the economy we are looking for a technical recession. the prognosis is negative so far. earlier in the week, the imf projections for 2023 have the u growing th economies. less than germany and russia that sounds like a low number indeed, but because there is a caveat, remember in november, the bank of england surprised with the low estimate for growth in november, the gdp growing at minus 1.5% this year and minus 1% in 2024 low numbers indeed there is room actually for a growth upgrade out of the bank of england today there is something to watch from that perspective bear in mind with the inflation. i mentioned the print is very
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high, but the numbers are starting to drop the language that the bank of england is giving with how fast it will drop and whether it returns to target sooner than anticipated iss something that markets will watch out for back in december, when they hiked interest rates, two members of the committee did not want to hike interest rates at all. they preferred for a no change/unchange policy today will have a split on the economy. a significant number of policymakers who want the 50 basis points hike and a couple with 25 points and a couple with no change. arabile, the path for the rate hike and the like will be higher that is what the market wants to see. they want reassurance they will not continue with rate hikes as they have done to date
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>> that will be the sentiment we are looking out for. it is not just about the decision today, but the rate hike path. joumanna, thank you. we continue our coverage today join myself and joumanna for the boe decision time later today. coverage begins just before the announcement at 12:00 p.m. gmt we will have joumanna's interview with the governor andrew bailey. stay tuned for that as well across the day the important one happening as well with the european central bank they are expected to follow suit today by hiking the deposit rate 50 basis points to 2.5%. inflation in the euro area last month slowed to the lowest level since may at 8.5%. although core inflation which excludes food and energy prices, has proven sticky. annette is on the line as we unpack this story.
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annette, as we head to the decision, no clear message has been shared by the president of the ecb christine lagarde. really staying the path is the mantra for the year. we should not be surprised by the decision >> reporter: exactly that is widely expected that the ecb is hiking another 50 basis points today the key question is if she will say the future will also hold significantly higher rates that was how she phrased it back in december. if that significantly will be dropped, that could be a dovish surprise clearly inside the governing council there is a growing risk with the hawks who want to have higher interest rates and between the dove whose are concerned about what it means to the economies and what it
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potentially also means to the spread levels in the euro area we have seen spread being on the rise wildly last year. remember in june when they came up with the new emergency facility this is like the discussions the governing council is having. whether significantly might be dropped from the term of how they describe the rate environment and the future the market is not priecing in an rate cuts this year. that is different from the united states. the market is currently thinking the ecb will come to an end with the hiking cycle in june or jejuly this year and the rate should stay high into 2024. that is one part of what is interesting today. then we need to talk about quantitative tightening.
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the shrinking of the balance sheet. so far, we know the ecb will start it, but what is the aim and what they think will that do to the tightening of the monetary policy stance that is crucial. she will be asked about that clearly, she could accelerate the shrinking of the balance sheet and taking away more liquidity from the system. clearly what the ecb is mainly concerned about is the high inflation is going to be a trend. that core inflation is here to stay at the elevated level because we see second round effects happening. wage rounds and wage demands in h trade unions high, not in general germany, but the euro area there is not much the ecb can do
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about it because that process is already happening. the concern is bringing that inflation back to the target that will be a painful process the economy, obviously, is holding upper tha better than e. >> annette, thank you. we will continue our coverage on this story as well with you later on the chief european economist at goldman sachs is joining us now. i appreciate your time thank you. is that the case the tweak in language is key for not being as forceful with the interest rate hikes? deciding meeting by meeting is what they should put out now >> the focus is on the guidance on the signaling about the future the 50 basis point hike today is
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a foregone conclusion. we think the mantra will be stay the course for the message today. the hawkish course set out in december we think the forward guidance is going to stay similar to what they said in december. rates still have to go significantly higher they need to stay sufficiently restrictive for long enough to get inflation down when you look at the data flow relative to december, yes, the headline numbers have started to come down. gas prices have fallen we have lowered our forecast for headline quite a bit at the same time, the core pressures are still there. we think the growth outlook is bright wage growth is firm. we don't think it is the time really to turn dovish on the forward guidance you have the march meeting where broad assessment will take place. today is stay the course. >> in staying the course, you have the likes of spain seeing
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their inflation number come out a higher figure. let's call this continued aggression with the interest rate hikes as well do you see a sense of wanting to find a balance between that growth mark and still fighting inflation or purely about inflation and then getting to the peak as soon as possible >> i think the growth news has been somewhat better since december we learned that we did not see a contraction in gdp in q4 i think the survey data has been better with the flash pmi. gas prices are down. china is reopening and beginning to accelerate. we moved away early in january from the recession forecast for the euro area. i think there is somewhat more optimism around the growth picture. i think the key is how to
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balance that against the headline inflation outlook which improved a lot for now, it means 50 today and in march, we think, is likely to be another 50. i think there is room to slow down in may. we have them going to 3.25% as the peak rate for the cycle. >> good to see you, jari standing outside the bank of england. i'll ask you a question about the uk economy i thought it was interesting yesterday that the fed chair jay powell noted inflation has started to fall. there has been a deceleration in inflation. it hasn't yet been accompanied with the uptick on the unemployment rate which is music to central bankers' ears they want 2% inflation without the uptick in unemployment is it possible a similar thing could happen in the uk and the unemployment rate won't need to
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jump as high as markets have been anticipating to get back to 2% inflation >> i think that is possible. that is actually what we expect in the uk. we expect some increase in the unemployment rate, but not actually a particularly pronounced one the reason is pretty similar to what is going on in the u.s. the labor market is very tight, but a lot of it is actually in job openings and vacancies as opposed to strong employment we think that has been one of the key reasons rowith inflation why wage growth has picked up. it is around 7%. that is why we think the bank of england is likely to opt for 50 basis points today they then look for two more 25 basis point increments because we think there is more work to
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be done in re-balancing the labor market and getting it down with a consistent 2% inflation. >> the market is pricing in the terminal rate of 4.5%. consistency with what you are saying do you think the bank of england will have to start cutting rates by the end of 2023 given the state of the economy >> i don't think so. i think the labor market pressure will still be there he think wage growth will come down we think core inflation pressures will ease. we don't think they will ease quickly enough for the bank of england to cut rates by the end of the year. we hold a similar view for the fed where we don't look for cuts until 2024 of course, the focus in the uk is on the weak economy and on the weak growth numbers. i think here the incoming information is still soft.
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we also have seen improvement similar to the euro area gas prices coming down is good china reopening is good. if the euro area can avoid recession, that is good. it is a weaker growth outlook in the uk, but we think the second half of the year is going to be a little bit better as inflation comes down and real wages get a lift from that >> jari, it is a picture we have seen resilience in the market. it is going to be about how much more resilience there is left in the market with the growth picture and jobless number thank you for the time we will look out for the numbers as well today. i hope we get a chat in with you as well in regards to that jari is the chief economist at goldman saks tune in to the ecb decision time at 2:00 p.m. cet we will take you through the
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central bank rate decision. coming up, shell posting a record profit. we will bring you more with the interview with the ceo after the break.
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welcome to "street signs." i'm arabile gumede these are the headlines. european markets take in the fed effect after the central bank hikes rates at the slowest rate in the year. now we turn to the bank of england and european central bank. company news shell with $40 billion in annual profit and revealing a share buyback plan the ceo tells cnbc he aims to transform the company for the customer and the shareholder >> spimplification of the structure to make sure we are structured in the way to deliver the vision and real focus to move from a great company today to also being a great investment waning covid demand weighs
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on results from roche with the ceo telling cnbc group sales will fall by low single digits this year. >> we saw the decline of 1 billion swiss francs with covid-related sales. we expect that to accelerate for the current year we expect a sharp decline of our covid-19 related sales now the pandemic finally comes to an end. deutsche bank slides after missing fourth quarter profit expectations despite reporting the best annual results in 15 years. the cfo discusses market sentiment with cnbc. >> the fourth quarter tailed off a bit for us in november and december, but still a record quarter in the business for fourth quarter 8.9 billion for the full year. it same a little bit short of a analyst expectation and
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guidance it certainly has been a data filled week. especially on the earnings side. shell with a profit of $40 billion. that is more than double the previous year. the energy jiegiant announced a4 billion share buyback program. steve spoke to the ceo early this morning and asked about the company's approach to investment in renewables. >> taxes are for governments to decide on. we engage and provide perspectives the key perspective we try to provide is the context around the fact that companies like ourselves that need to invest multiple billions for energy transition require a stable and secure investment climate. windfall taxes or price caps erode confidence in that investment stability i do worry about some of the
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moves being made if i compare that, for example, for the inflation reduction act in the u.s., actually is incentivizing investment there is a different approach that needs to be had which is draw investment capital at the time we need to draw that here in europe. >> you will be aware that global witness within last couple days have accused you of misrepresenting of what spending you have on renewables they have gone to the s.e.c. and say they should account because you are saying the recent report that 12% of the cap x is funneled into renewable and energy solutions they say, in fact, 1.5% of shell's cap x is used to develop genuine renewables how do you respond to that >> let me be categorical more than one-third of the overall spend, capital and operating costs, goes into energy transition spend.
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that is spend for renewables and non-combustibles last year, we invested in the renewable platform in the u.s. we invested in the platform in india and hydrogen development in the netherlands we are investing significantly in renewables on the basis of attractive returns to the shareholders we have been transparent in where we are investing our money and how we cement our businesses i strongly believe that case has no merit >> we bumped into each other on the sidelines of the world economic forum at the meeting, i had a panel with greta thunberg. she was in agreement that we need no more fossil development and production no new fossil fuel production and development to hit greenhouse targets and net zero
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emission targets in the next 5, 10 and 20 years. i see you dispute that analysis? >> i dispute that. 2022 reminded us, collectively, of the need for the balanced energy transition. trying to stop supply of energy in the hope that demand will correct itself is a flawed strategy we need to continue to invest in all forms of energy. i fundamentally agree with the fact we need to look at ways to lower emissions of the energy forms we produce that is a responsible way to transition recognizing there are many, for example, in 2022 that have now lost access to electricity and power around the world because of the elevated lng prices that have taken lng cargos away from the countriies that can no longr afford we need a balance for all
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involved. >> we talked about the money available for the transition shell and broader industry you know as well as i do, the red tops and popular press in the united kingdom will be on your back with the 15% increase in dividend and $4 billion of share buybacks on top of the share price which has had a stunning rally of the marc lows how do you respond to that shareholders getting too large a piece of the pie >> we have continued to find a balanced approach or allocation of capital if you look at what we announced, we are going to invest between $23 billion and $27 billion of capital into the business over the course of 2023 that is consistent of what we invested in 2022 despite the inflation pressures and that includes inorganics. of that, one-third or more than one-third is going into areas
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like renewables and we focus on those investments in areas where we see returns at the end of the day, the balance of capital investment in business along with rewarding our shareholders, especially during a strong macro and continuing to deleverage in the world of continued uncertainty, we think is the right way to steer the company in the coming years. coming up on the show, telenovo beating into the fourth quarter expectations we will discuss with the ceo next
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telenor posting a fourth quarter profit beat and forecast continue growth in the year ahead, but proposing a dividend lag. sigve brekke from telenor is joining us i appreciate your time pointing to the desire for the revenue growth in the 2023 to
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2025 time period how far are you in your route to getting that far do you feel you are getting there? especially with the nordic business increasing by 5% with the mobile business? >> i think we have a good start on receiving that. we have the 4% growth in the third quarter and 5% growth across mobile growth for nordic businesses unit in the quarter on top of that, we are continuing to drive down costs i think we are well into the ability to deliver on that plan. >> the cost and restructuring of the business has been a plan that you put forward just last year how far are you with that and what does it entail? is it achieving what you like? >> we are having some major programs going on across the portfolio. the biggest one in norway where we have completely taken out the
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copper network we are operating in europe and investing into future connectivity be 5g or fiber that is why we came out surprisingly strong on the growth, but also the profitable growth for nordic markets. >> in the asian business, you spoke about the listings malaysia business, for example, has been listed as well as discontinued operations there. you also have the $8.6 billion deal in thailand moving toward completion what is the growth pros pictur -- prospects for asia >> in asia, we are focusing on restructuring the set up it served us well for 20 years
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we are finalizing that and the same in thailand the reason i do that is to secure the market position creating the operators in the market at number one and well positioned for the digital growth we see in the market as well this is progressing well after we have concluded the structure deals, i think we will see a growth journey for our business >> let's talk about the energy crisis that continues to affect a few entities prices are fairly going down a bit, but a few risks to your business, you think? >> we saw last year with an increase of the portfolio of 1 billi
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billion. at the end of the year, we have ppa agreement that we entered into are kicking in. those an grgreements are based n the prices before the energy crisis we are well positioned to have a balanced view on energy prices >> quickly, where is your cap x pointing for the remainder of the year >> we don't have any cap x guidance for this year we closed last year on 70% of sales. we are on the peak of investment for 5g and fiber then we said today we are guiding down in 2025 then the peak is over and also investment is done the number we talked about today was 2 billion crowns lower
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investment in 2025 from 2024 >> mr. brekka, thank you for your time. good set of earnings to look at especially considering the telecom space and what it looks like sigve brekke head of telenor. we are heading to the bank of england rate decision we have a mixed picture with the nasdaq looking to go higher as we set out for the day's d trading. that is it for "street signs." i'm arabile gumede "worldwide exchange" is up next.
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it is 5:00 a.m. on wall street here is the top "five@5. tech driven rally as buyers embrace the risk-on trade. what jay powell said yesterday that is putting some at ease. adding to the gains. meta's stock is set to surge at the open it is not just the fed two more key rate decisions on deck. and the $100 billion market meltdown hitting the pockets o


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