tv Inside Politics CNN November 2, 2014 5:30am-6:01am PST
would it have taken you a minute to know it was him? eight minutes long. >> which is great. he only came out once, performed four songs, typically they do two but he is on my list of people i have to see before it's all over. >> you and me both. >> john king is up next. president obama lost the house in his first midterm election. now is he about to lose the senate? >> show that you still have hope and go out there and vote! >> republicans see a night of blue states turning red. >> colorado has the opportunity to be the tip of the spear, the vanguard of a movement. >> somehow hold on, democrats need dramatic upsets. >> you got to be a jockey like you've never been because this kentucky fily is ready to cross the finish line. >> so many close races and nothing certain. "inside politics," the biggest stories sourced by the best reporters, now.
>> welcome to "inside politics." i'm john king. thanks for sharing your sunday morning. with to us share their reporting and insights, nia-malika henderson, jonathan martin of the "new york times," cnn's peter hamby and dan balz of "the washington post." two days to election day and there's a clear republican advantage in the biggest battle in 2014, that's for control of the united states senate. des moines register, joanie ernst takes a seven-point lead running against bruce braley. eight or ten of the races including the iowa race still tight. is there any path left for democrats to somehow hold their senate majority? this is the state of play, 55 democrats, 45 republicans, two of those democrats are independents who work with the democrats. here are the big races we're watching, 13 races we've been watching throughout the year but even most democrats concede
montana, south dakota, west virginia, likely to be republican pickupups on election day. let's give republicans the three that would get you to 45/45. can the democrats somehow hold onto the ma jo are the? the "easiest" path is to keep the states i'll call the blues, new hampshire, iowa, colorado, and north carolina, the president carried three of them, colorado, iowa, new hampshire, both times, he carried north carolina once but that is by no means assured, because the republicans are leading in colorado. republicans are leading in iowa. new hampshire is close. north carolina is close. what if the republicans take colorado and iowa, and for the sake of this, democrats hold new hampshire and hold that race in north carolina. can the democrats still keep their majority, that's why it's so hard to look. that would be 47-47 but to get to 50, vice president joe biden would break a tie if democrats can get to 50, they'd have to win three of these six, three of them held by republicans, all six of these states president obama lost twice so a very
difficult path for the democrats, and dan balz, let's begin with that question. you have the obama drag, your newspaper this morning "the washington post" another poll showing the president's numbers are low heading into election day. farvelt at an all-time low. you have the obama drag but if you call into iowa, you call into colorado, i got a few calls from angry democrats in colorado yesterday saying no, no, no, we have the best ground operation ever, we can overcome that drag. can they? >> it's very difficult. it's not impossible, but as you go through that map and as we've all done the math, the best i think they think they can do is 50 and they're pessimistic at this point that they can do that well. i mean, there's too many states in play. if you look at colorado, for example, somebody told me yesterday that despite the fact that they have confidence in their ground game, they think that the motivation is on the republican side and they are worried about the motivation on their side. if you look at iowa, that iowa poll that the "des moines register" did shows a much wider
margin than anybody else does but it makes people nerve news these last hours. >> it gives some indication we've been waiting to see if there'd be a break. republicans have seen it in colorado, two democrats dispute that. in the "des moines register" poll, 51-44. jonathan martin you write as the lead story in the newspapers, republicans and some democrats think it is tilting their way in the end. let me flip it over. i was asking the question can democrats overcome the obama drag. why isn't this a slam dunk already for republicans? if you look historically with the president's numbers where they ares the number of people in the country on the long track, why don't we already know? >> i think it's a couple of things. candidate quality still matters and you've seen solid democrat incumbents come to mind, kay hagan is the one that comes to mind. politics more and more, john, is based upon just these very firm demographics and democrats have done a good job in recent years
getting their voters out. now, they don't do as good of a job in off years and that's part of their challenge this year. dan is right, the math is very tough for democrats. it's almost like they have to draw an inside straight to pull this thing off. the one thing that gives them some glimmer of hope, by the way, is kansas, because that would not make republicans have to gain six seats, it would put the onus on seven seats if pat roberts loses that race. >> democrats have said from the beginning of the year we will prove you wrong even in this climate on election day because of early voting. depending on which day you look, have republicans learned enough ahead and gotten better at technology and infrastructure? >> this thank is a better understand. they understood early vote exists which is something they didn't quite get in the past. are they targeting the right voters and using the tools to get them out early is the
question. colorado i think we all agree democrats are very pessimistic about that, looking at the early vote numbers so far. iowa, you know, they say they have a better field operation. i think field gets you one, two max, three points and that might not be enough to overcome a larger win for joanie. i talked to a couple democrats that looked at the models inning in income and georgia and felt very good about that. i talked to one labor organizer who is active in the field, said in north carolina a full 30% of voters were people who didn't vote in 2010 and in georgia, 34% according to one democrat's model of the early vote was african-american. democrats are feeling good about the early vote. >> let's focus on north carolina for a minute. if you went back to january/february republicans would have said we'll get kay hagan, it's a swing state. mitt romney carried it in 2012, it's narrow, republicans say they'll get there but she's
consistently held a narrow lead and most democrats concede run the best campaign and been their best candidate. more than $100 million spent in that one state alone, tons of outside money coming in. why is kay hagan having the narrow lead over tom tillis? >> she has the third party candidate, the pizza guy, sean hall, that's one thing but the demographics in that state just favor the sort of multiracial coalition of it doesn't necessarily exist in a state like arkansas, in a state like georgia, it hasn't really been tested, so she's down there, she's getting something like 35% of the white vote, the african-american vote there is going to be in the high double digits. so it's just a better state to really remake that. >> she has made it as much about raleigh as washington, too. they have found a way to make speaker tom tillis as much the sort of central actor in the race as barack obama and you can't underestimate how polarizing that state legislature is right now.
>> in raleigh there was a highpoint poll a few weeks ago that broke out the vote by region in the state, raleigh is the second biggest region by population in that state. kay hagan was leading tillis by 17 points in raleigh. sort of ground zero for the negative news conferenceage that surrounded tom tillis for a long time. that's one factor. >> the interesting dynamic this year is that there is national dissatisfaction and there is state-based dissatisfaction. >> yes. >> based on who controls the legislature and the governor's office, and we're seeing in a lot of states, whether they're red or blue, dissatisfaction with the kind of governance people are getting. north carolina is the one clear place where that intersects, where you have dissatisfaction with the president and dissatisfaction with the republican legislature, and i think that's a key reason as jonathan said, that that race continues to be varied. >> voters are grumpy all around. >> that's shaping the governors races in a lot of states.
>> colorado. >> kansas, colorado, illinois, the northeast. lot of these states, maryland next door to us here but rhode island, massachusetts, connecticut, these are one-party states where you have republicans knocking on the door in some of these places or democrats knocking on the door in kansas. >> interesting point. not just the senate races. number of governors races in states where you wouldn't think they'd be close normally. everybody stay put. up next two races where runoffs might delay the final answer d and. and now we have a taste of this year's more colorful tv ads. >> hey louisiana, bibles and guns brought us here and bibles and guns will keep us here. zach dasher believes in both. that's why i'm voting for him. >> when you have nine children you're bound to have one who is hard-headed. >> dad, you're one to talk. >> and now the energy committee, the those other senators better get ready. >> they are.
>> now you know why putin won't let her into russia. >> vote sean haugh. >> oh, yeah. introducing the citi® double cash card. it lets you earn cash back when you buy and again as you pay. that's cash back twice. it's cash back with a side of cash back. the citi double cash card. the only card that lets you earn cash back twice on every purchase with 1% when you buy and 1% as you pay . with two ways to earn, it makes a lot of other cards seem one-sided.
. welcome back. this is the "alaska dispump news" u.s. senates near the end, a $50 million race in alaska. republicans favored, democrats need that one, probably to keep their majority. let's peek at one more, "the kentucky enquirer" the hillary factor. hillary clinton campaigning with allison grimes on the weekend. close race there, perhaps one the democrats would like to get the most to defeat mitch mcconnell, looks unlikely at the moment but not out of the question. it is sad but sadly hardly a
surprise race is an issue in the campaign's closing days. louisiana senate contest mary landrieu stoked the conversation with this explanation of president obama's unpopular pit. >> to be very honest with you, the south has not always been the friendliest place for african-americans. it's been a difficult time for the president to present himself in a very positive light as a leader. >> she's being very honest and it's certainly true if you look in the south, race is more of an issue in campaigns, the president is more of an issue sometimes. what's mary landrieu's goal here? >> you know, it's funny, because she's gotten a lot of flack for this comment, a lot of republicans come out and said she should apologiapologize. she doubled down and sent out a statement yesterday saying i'm not backing down. this is, in fact, true that race has been a problem. you know, she's got a tight rope to walk there, right? she's got to get enough white votes to support her, polling
25%, 26% of white voters. how she makes up that gap isn't clear if she can, and this probably isn't helping talking about race at this point. >> i was going to say forgive me this may sound cynical is she playing this and talking about this because she won't invite the president down and needs something to motivate the african-american base or just answering the question? >> i think it was more the latter. in a statement she put out it was sort of a calibrated semi-walk back. she said the president is chiefly unpopular louisiana, energy policies. she then reinforced the fact that yes, race is still a factor. that to me says, kaepts don't put out statements like that trying to clarify things if they had done something intentionally but that was more of a candidate misstep. there's no question race is a factor in louisiana race. it's going to help her in a lot of precincts in new orleans but obviously it's going to hurt her
in other parts of the state. look, it is a sad fact that it's a, seen as some kind of controversial thing to say that, this close to david duke winning thousands of votes in that state when he ran for governor. it's a fact of life. >> and is there anybody who thinks mary landrieu can win a runoff or does she have to somehow manage to get 50% plus one or else you have a runoff. >> it's tough in a runoff. every head-to-head poll she's trailed in what we think of as likely to be the runoff. >> so that's a very hard one for the democrats. moving on to kentucky, i'll hold it up here, the grimes campaign in kentucky is complaining about this mailer from the republican party of kentucky, inside on the right of your screen is nothing unusual, it's a letter that says allison grimes is lying, and saying things about mitch mcconnell aren't true. that on the right is nothing interesting. on the nfl says "election
violence notice" and talks about if you disrupt the mail it's a federal crime. what does that have to do with an election on tuesday? the democrats in kentucky are complaining this was sent predominantly to african-american households in kentucky trying to scare people from voting. is this politics as usual, below the belt, maybe both? >> a little bit of both. certainly both of those things apply to most of mitch mcconnells complaints. the democrats filed suit in jefferson county, louisville, where democrats, accusing them of doing something sinister, voter suppression but that is the same mail vendor mcconnell used in the primary and dropped some piece that was similar to that against matt bevin, it was yellow, ominous looking and said "fraud alert" and you open it up, matt bevin is a fraud, he took money, et cetera, et cetera. any lawsuit isn't going to
change the outcome of this election obviously they're not going to rule on this before election day. it seems like a bid to sort of get a little bit of earned media attention on the part of the grimes campaign, but you know, it's a little bit of both. >> we just talked about this to a degree in north carolina, to another degree in louisiana, it's also at play in kentucky. one of the things i'm fascinated by, dan, i was in kentucky, you go into louisville, the democrats have to have huge turnout, fayette county, lexington huge turnout and when you walk the streets the african-american politicians in the past say they don't like it but get it, grimes is pushing the president away, won't say if she voted to are him. the politicians process it. i sat down at mcdonald's with a city councilwoman, the everyday working joes are like why? does that affect their turnout? how do you manage the we need your votes but i'm pushing the president away? >> it certainly could affect individual voters and ordinary people when they see a candidate running away from somebody they wonder what's going on and
should i really support that candidate? will that candidate really have my interests. the president is obviously doing a lot of stuff, not exactly under the radar but it's targeted into african-american communities whether it's interviews on black radio, advertising some direct mail, all of that aimed at allowing the candidate to maintain some distance but still delivering a direct message to those voters. >> one of the big wildcards headed into the time 48 hours is kans ca kansas. there's greg orman and pat roberts. jonathan talked about this months ago when he broke the story about pat roberts really living in virginia, not in kansas. if republicans lose that race, it is possible that greg orman, who hasn't said which party he'll caucus could sit around for two months if we have louisiana and georgia decides who controls the senate, huh? >> yes, that's what we're looking at. he's been very clever and coy what he would do, whether or not he'd back democrats or republicans. this next sort of lame duck period waiting on the results of
georgia, waiting on the results of louisiana are going to affect so many things. it's going to affect what obama does, in terms of does he want to go forward with immigration reform, executive order or looking at the two races in his calcul calculus. >> i spoke yesterday to some top folks in the gop, they are concerned about the roberts race but here's how confident they are overall. they think they could lose the roberts race in kansas and still get the majority, so much so they called mitch mcconnell at his home in louisville, congratulatio congratulations, you're going to be the next majority leader. >> he has fond memories of 2010, my question not the same, ken buck and todd aiken. is that what he has in kansas and georgia candidates who lose races they should win. we'll see. next tomorrow's news today, our reporters get you ahead of the big political news to come, including why republicans might regret the owe bama era coming an end.
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let's go around the "inside politics" table and ask our reporters to share a final nuggets from their notebooks. >> on tuesday a lot of eyes will be on texas. wendy davis has virtually no chance of winning in that race in texas, running for governor but democrats poured roughly $10 million into that campaign hoping to change the makeup of
the electorate. if that electorate isn't changed very much come tuesday republicans are going to have something to crow. and it will send a message to democrat, don't mess with texas, at least no time soon. from they keep saying it's going to go blue but can't say when. >> it hasn't gotten the same attention as the senate but in the house the gop is going to gain more seats. if they get 12 to 15 or beyond that it can make it hard for democrats to retake the house after they redraw the lines after 2020. i talked to greg walden, he said 6-8 and chairman walden wants to say there's been chatter about him being forced out. he said i'm staying. >> peter hamby? >> i want to fast forward past tuesday, a parlor game going on among democrats about hillary clinton and the question if you talk to democrats is not if
hillary clinton will run for president but when. clinton still has to make that decision herself of course but the galaxy of people around her are debating she should deny oxygen to any potential challenger, build an so she can raise money, hiring staff or wait until the spring? i talked to one democrat who said she should wait until march, april or may because she doesn't have to get into the mix and answer questions from reporters and take every arrow from the media or republicans. that's an interesting debate to watch as we head into the holidays. >> when will hillary tell us she's still running. dan? >> i want to look past tuesday also and the potentially interesting relationship between the president of the united states and the possible future of senate majority leader mitch mcconnell. if the republicans win the senate that relationship, which is non-existent at this point, will become the most important in town. >> excellent point to make and not a great relationship with speaker boehner. i'll close with this, republicans complain all the time just about every breath
will president obama. you could make a case they might miss him. the president swept into office in a big democratic year in 2008 but the six years have been boom time for republicans. 257-seat democratic majority when the president took office down to 201 and the minority in the house now. the number of democrats in state legislatures, that's a key bench for future stars, down a whopping 600 from six years ago. the change in the senate this year's big battleground is less dramatic. 56 early in the obama years, 53 now, 55 if you count the two independents who work with senate democrats. the president's party usually takes a big hit in the sixth year midterm vote so it will be worth taking another look at the numbers a week from now. if republicans fail again to take the senate given this favorable climate their brand problems are likely to get as much if not more attention from the presidents. that's it for "inside politics," thanks for sharing your sunday. see you during extensive
coverage in the campaign in the days ahead. be sure to join us tuesday beginning at 5:00 p.m. eastern or cnn's "election night in america" coverage. "state of the union with candy crowley" starts right now. the big dogs are out. clinton, bush, christie, romney and paul headed for this election's finish line and points beyond. today, 2012's tea party upstart, now the go-to guy for mainstream republicans. >> i want to be someone who does bring the party together. >> can 2016 be far behind? we are on the trail with senator rand paul. plus an old hand handicaps the new game. former secretary of state and white house chief of staff james baker on global tensions and republican politics. then -- >> that's what hope is. >> -- the echo of elections passed. >> show that you still have hope and go out there and vote! >> what tuesday's
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