i'm alison kosik. >> i'm president to face the prospect of jail time. >> we should not have special prosecutors going after one person. >> and the key phrase is directed by -- >> it has been a long two years for kelly. >> president trump feels comfortable with meadows but whether the chemistry is there is hard to tell. we want to welcome our viewers around the united states and around the world. good to see you so early. >> we're so fresh. cnn heroes is one of the greatest nights of the year. it's inspiring in every way. >> it's fabulous. we will get into that.

this morning we begin with president trump facing the greatest threat to his presidency. for the first time since taking office the president is tied directly to federal crimes in the sentencing memo of his former lawyer, michael cohen. the house judiciary committee calls these impeachable offenses. and the new documents are about the lies that torpedoed manafort's plea with the feds. here's what we know this morning. federal prosecutors say donald trump instructed cohen to pay money to two women as husheny, and he says he did not take the meeting was he already had a

connection to the russian government. michael cohen is one of 14 trump associates that interacted with russians during the campaign, and that's a higher number than what we knew. >> and 14 is not zero, which is what president trump said it was the first month of his administration. we also know that cohen lied about the project to build a trump tower in moscow, and paul manafort also lied about his contacts with the white house, and they have messaged showing manafort talking to administration earlier this year, and he also lied about his contacts with the russian operatives. all of that, everything we just laid out there is what we learned on friday. that's just friday. that's on top of the trump tower meeting where don junior was promised russian dirt on hillary clinton and on top of the 12

russian intelligence officers for hacking the dnc, and that's on top of roger stone trying connect with wikileaks, and that's on top of the lies michael flynn told and that's on top whatever investigation there is into obstruction altogether. in other words, it's a lot on top of a lot on top of a lot. >> with a cherry on top. as the white house deals with these revelations there's also a shake-up at the highest levels. the president announcing the chief of staff, john kelly, will be out by the end of the year, and the frontrunner to replace him, nick ayers says he does not want that job. there are four people being considered, but some of them don't want the job. >> we have david gregory here.

david, we are leading with you, our cnn political analyst. also former president full prosecutor lisa coats, and cnn legal analyst, jennifer rogers. good to have you on set with us, jennifer. take us up to 30,000 feet. what do you see this morning? >> i see a president that is in trouble now. for the first time we actually have a prosecutor's office saying he committed a federal felony. the question is what are they going to do about it? what is mueller going to do about his piece of it? i think they are ultimately going to have to wait. the olc's opinions say you can't indict a sitting president, and they can indictment him after he leaves office, but they are unlikely to proceed with the criminal case as of now. >> are you referring to the one where michael cohen at the direction of individual one, who

we know to be donald trump, instructed him to pay the hush money. >> they just don't have cohen's statement, because cohen is not a cooperator and they can't rely on his testimony. they have other evidence that is consistent with that and that's what they spelled out in the memo on friday meaning the president could be charged if he were not the actual sitting president. >> and david gregory, it's delightful to have you on and i am putting this to you because we could not be happier to have you with us. and this is what we learned on friday, the southern district of new york thinks it could prosecute president trump for a crime were he not president, basically that's what they say on paper. that's on top of whatever evidence there is about russian collusion, and on top of obstruction, and they could charge the president with breaking the law.

that's a huge deal. >> that's a huge deal. there could be a pursuit about an impeachment proceeding against him. we have been talking for months about trying to understand how all the pieces fit together. we have an indication of how part of that picture looks and how damning that part alone is without even knowing the rest of it. there's the michael cohen piece, and this other piece that is so big boils down to this, which is the trump campaign was open for business with the russians and it went all the way up to the candidate himself. how do we know that? we know that from what we have learned, but if you connect what the prosecutor has gathered with the president's own statement, and he said it would be good to have a better relationship with russia, and he is saying, yes, he had business prospects that he later aban dubbdoned, and he

called on the russians to find hillary clinton missing e-mails, and he talked about how much he loved wikileaks, and on and on this thing goes. the campaign said anybody would go for this kind of opposition research when we know the russians did not like hillary clinton, didn't want her to win. >> laura, the russians reached out to more trump associates than we previously knew. 14 people have just been disclosed, and there could be more, and ivanka trump did not know she was one of the people, and this is the russian who was looking for political synergy with the campaign, and it was an athlete turned intrapreneur, and

what i see in this, taken individually, the wife of some russian intrapreneur calls you if you are ivanka trump, and that doesn't sound like a high crime and misdemeanor, and when you put that altogether, you see the different in-roads the russians were trying to make to the trump campaign. >> of the list of people who were receptive and willing to speak of anybody, i didn't see one that alerted the fbi, and when you have people and you have in writing with mueller's different recommendations and et cetera, you don't have anybody that was reaching out to the rbi or any law enforcement agency to say this is happening, this is a problem and we do not want any part of it. instead we have people reaching back in many respect.

it's getting closer and closer to the inner circle and the oval office of the president of the united states, and what is astonishing to me, the litany of things we do know, mueller knows more. he redacted portions to alert people he doesn't want you to know yet what you do not know, but it's coming. that is the most foreboding thing of all. if you are the president of the united states or anybody in his inner circle, you are wondering is my name under that particular black line? i am certainly on the graphic. >> when laura says mueller knows more, and both david and jennifer are nodding like this, because one thing we learned mueller is operating at a different level than we are used to. put that chart of up 14 different people one more time and let it sink in for one more second, look at that and commit it to memory, and then i want to play donald trump when he said

this when he had been president for a month. >> i have nothing to do with russia, and no person that i deal with does. >> no person except for those 14 people up on the screen. leave that there. i want to play jerry nadler, he will be chair of the house judicial committee in less than a month and said this on our air. it was fascinating. >> it would be impeachable offenses because even though they were committed before the president became president they were committed in the service of fra fraudulently obtaining the office. >> he could hold hearings on it, but what he is saying is he's

not sure it's political expedient to do so. >> if you were on a continuum you would see the level of caution against the "i" word. we know so much more about what mueller has and there's so much more yet to come by the indications of redacted documents and so forth that democrats could become increasingly confident. we are not going to know until we know the full picture about just how confident democrats will become. the political concern is what if all of this, as damning as it appears, and it lands on capitol hill in an unbelievable report and the american people don't care? that's what democrats have to think about. they know the down side to pursuing this could be very

tri tricky for them politically. >> according to adam schiff, he was on cbs this weekend and he was saying, and you spelled it out david the way politically it could go, and adam schiff went further and said criminally how it could go. >> my take away is there's a prospect on the day donald trump leaves office the justice department may indictment him, and he could be the president in quite sometime to face the prospect of jail time. >> we are getting ahead of o ourselves, but that's how he sees it. he think it's beyond the house impeaching him. >> i think he is right, but only if donald trump doesn't win a second term. the statute of limitations is five years, and there's time through 2021, but not if he won a second term. that's the thing playing out

here, and if he wins a second term they will not be able to indict him at that time. >> james comey was talk about this. what i will give you is -- i have a combo platter. >> are there nachos? >> it's better than nachos. >> wow. >> i can't see what the end of the mueller effort looks like. i don't know what form it will take. i don't know what they will conclude. i can't say in that respect, but i can tell you all of us should use every breath we have to make sure that the lying stops on january 20th, 2021. [ applause ] >> that was james comey last night who did not spare any words for the president, by the way. somebody tweeted out what comey said, and all of us should use every breath we have to make sure the lies stop on january

20th, 2021, and then george conway tweets, i'm increasingly optimistic we can do better than this. in other words, he's saying i don't think we have to wait, laura, until january 20th, 2021. george conway is now saying impeachment is more likely than he has ever seen it before. look, i don't know what george conway is playing at, but he is a lawyer that sees these things, do you think the death con has increased? >> i think it has increased. what is going on right now? the impeachment. look back to the clinton era, and there has to be some incentive on the republican side of the senate to go forward through the articles of impeachment if they are ever filed by the house. when you look at the clinton years, one of the things that was required to have that happen

there had to be a level of a public distrust or public unpopularity. we know congress men and women are often time beholdened to not only special interests, but we are at a level where i think senate republicans may be more receptive to say, the evidence compels us to look into this. >> laura, jennifer and david, thank you for the analysis. meanwhile, other news to tell you about. a deadly winter storm is leaving hundreds of thousands of people without power and causing a mess, and one person was killed while driving in the snow in north carolina, and more snow is expected today.

let's check in with meteorologist, chad myers. >> hi, alisyn. the snow, for asheville and winston and salem, they picked almost a foot and a half of snow. some melting going on here, but if you are flying today, even if you are flying out of tampa, your plane may be stuck in raleigh, so this is going to be a dreadful day to fly. almost 3,000 flights over the weekend were cancelled. cancelled. not just delayed. the planes are not where they are supposed to be this morning. we will see light rain mixing with snow this afternoon but this is really just about done for this storm. now, there's another one on the horizon five days from now but temperatures are going to be 38 in new york, and 39 in charlotte, and things are beginning to warmup, but warmup is a relative term because you are in the 30s, 40s, and not

even the 50s by friday. another cold couple of days in store. john? >> yeah, chad told us what was going to happen with this storm, and it indeed it has. thank you. our next guest talks about the investigation. stay with us. our mission is to provide complete, balanced nutrition... for strength and energy! whoo-hoo! great-tasting ensure. with nine grams of protein and twenty-six vitamins and minerals. ensure. now up to 30 grams of protein for strength and energy! our because of smoking.ital. but we still had to have a cigarette. had to. but then, we were like. what are we doing? the nicodermcq patch helps prevent your urge to smoke all day. nicodermcq. you know why, we know how.

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just how threatening is the russia investigation to president trump and how serious are the allegations and possible infractions? our next guest says bluntly the mueller investigation nears the worst case scenario. joining us, the author of "the threat matrix." you have a article and you layout why you think this is the worst case scenario. there's seven possibilities for trump and this is from a year ago. if we could put it up on the screen so people know what we are talking about here. number five, russian intelligence actively penetrated

the trump campaign and trump knew or should have known. >> i think it's helpful in the russia investigation to try and come up with frameworks and think about sort of how to make these developments concrete, so they came up with this set of seven different scenarios from most innocent to most guilty last year. once you get above four it's really bad for the united states. this, by the way, is the worst case scenario for the united states and not for donald trump. this is with the revelations that we now know from last week with michael flynn, with michael cohen, with paul manafort and even some of jim comey's testimony on friday that came out over the weekend, we squarely see now that there was

a extensive multi-facetted multi-pronged russian presentation to make contact with the trump campaign. you saw that graphic in the last segment with the 14 different trump officials that were approached by russians, and that's a lot of russians. i think that really bears emphasis. there are not that many russians you encounter normally in u.s. politics. this isn't a country that is actively involved day-to-day in the swirl of politics in washington. to have that many people with that many ties to the kremlin approaching that many different trump officials, and as laura and david were saying in the last segment, that much of welcomed help from the trump campaign, i mean, it really is

striking how much the trump campaign opened their arms to these contacts and opened their arms to this help. it's clear that russian intelligence was targeting the campaign, and the only question remaining is whether donald trump and his campaign knew it or not. >> right. as far as we know none of the 14 said no, and none of the 14 points of contact said no thank you, this sounds sketchy, or this sounds sketchy and i'm going to call the fbi. it didn't happen. we are talking about points of contact, and i think i want to play it one more time, and this was then president trump a month into his administration. >> i have nothing to do with russia. to the best of my knowledge no person that i deal with does. >> garrett, you now say he knew or should have known, just to put a point on it, correct? >> exactly. the two major things that we saw on friday come out of the michael cohen court filing was,

a, these contacts began earlier than we realized, the court filing on friday cites at least one in november of 2015, which again very much changes the timeline, because then by that point it changes the way we think about subsequent contacts and things that we thought might have been an initial approach might have actually been follow-up approaches. the second thing, as you said, they just didn't turn any of this help down. in fact, the counter point to that is striking in and of itself, which is on friday we saw sort of the one contact that we know of that michael cohen didn't follow-up on was an offer of help that was offering political s political synergy from the kremlin, and he didn't follow-up on that because he thought he

was already dealing with somebody who had a sufficient kremlin connection. >> number six is compromise -- i think people think it's a typical word, think they of intelligence dirt there, but if you think about it another way, if you think about it as leverage then you think again, we are squarely into that scenario. explain why. >> yeah. this is where we have been very focused on this in the context of the steele dossier and some of the more salacious compromises could be on the president and his campaign, and we are already beginning to see signs that the russians had leverage over the trump campaign. we know of at least two instances we were discussing last week, the first being michael flynn lying publicly

about his contacts with russian ambassador, saw srakislyak, and the russian contacts and the kremlin over the trump tower in moscow, and that's information the trump campaign has been lying about for effectively two years now, and for two years the russian government has known the trump administration is lying about something. that, again, is about the worst case scenario for the united states from a counter intelligence perspective, to have the united states be under the thumb potentially to be under the adversary. >> we just learned michael cohen was lying about his russian contacts, but the russians knew all along, and even once the

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>> thank you for all the people that knocked on doors and give us rice or beans or some money. >> the doctor provides free housing meals, and support for sick children and their families in peru while they undergo treatment. he said the $100,000 prize will go towards building a new shelter. thank goodness viewers had to decide because everybody up on that stage was so impressive, such an angel, so inspirational. i didn't know who was going to win. >> no, those were just the ten up on the stage, and then we had young wonders, children that were doing things putting us all to shame. >> i grounded my children when i got home because they were not doing any of that. >> it was amazing. >> we will have the doctor on to

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john kelly will be leaving -- i don't know if i can say retiring, but he's a great guy. john kelly will be leaving at the end of the year. we'll be announcing who will be taking john's place. it might be on an interim basis. i will announce that over the next day or two. >> and that was president trump saying his chief of staff, john kel kelly is out, and the man who was supposed to take his place, john ayers says no thank you. how unusual is that? >> when the chief of staff job comes knocking, people go a

rockin'. it's surprising that ayers turned it down. whether it's a spin or they could not come to a deal, obviously this is a position that has a great deal of prestige and power, but a massive down side with donald trump. anybody that thinks they will come in and thinks they are going to impose new rules on the president, they are apparently having a hard time finding somebody who wants to sign up for this duty. >> i have a list that are supposedly under consideration. congressman mark meadows, that's interesting. would he leave his job as a congressman to be chief of staff? >> sure. >> you do? >> yeah. i was talking to long-time republican hill staffers, and i

mentioned the possibility of meadows and it was a spit take. >> i almost had one. >> and mnuchin, people are saying he would not want to take the job. i think this is fascinating. if there were ever a time to have a chief of staff to right the ship, it's now. the guy you want won't take the job. when a 36-year-old person who has been angling for the job and won't take it, that's a sign of trouble. >> yeah, it's unclear if the trouble was from the white house, and people like melania trump, if they didn't want ayers on the job, or if it's what is swirling around the white house, and obviously there's going to

be a new sheriff in town with the house democrats now in charge and all sorts of investigations, and this white house is going to be facing that, and this is a testament to this white house, this is a job, normally an incredibly prestigious job, and normally you would have dozens and dozens of qualified and experienced folks vying for this job, and that's not the case here and that's a testament of this white house, and remember, john kelly tried to right the ship and he was supposed to be the adult in the room and that didn't work out. the president had his roughest times when john kelly was at the helm, and so the idea that somebody is going to come in and fix things at the white house, you can't do that because donald trump is his own chief of staff and he plays all the positins at the white house. >> in the category of there's a

tweet for everything, donald trump was in 2012 aghast that president obama had three different chiefs of staff in three years. here's what he tweeted. three chiefs of staffs in three years of being president, and part of the reason president obama couldn't pass his agenda. >> he has had three in two years. >> since the chief of staff became a position under harry truman. and the obama stat, pete rouse came in as an interim and basically for the two years, the vast majority was rahm emanuel. >> and he was a congressman that left his job -- >> you proved your point. seems like you are angling for it? >> yeah, that's all i need at this point right now. look, i honestly -- the idea that he is sitting here in december now without a chief of

staff and the job has to be filled, you know, nia, i think it's really telling about where this white house is, and john was talking about people on the hill not being thrilled with the idea of mark meadow. and we are hearing from republicans on the hill who are more unsettled than they have been period about where this white house is and its overall understanding of the gravity of the situation it faces. >> the idea that this white house might just be prepared to wing it over the next couple of months, when you have a mueller investigation that is ongoing, and who knows when that will end? you have the incoming house caucus prepared to look into the white house, and this is a white house that has been never good in terms of communication or following through with a plan, or coming up with a plan and then following through with it, and now that they have the situation where they can't really seem to attract a candidate to the chief of staff position, somebody who would be the point person for a number of issues, dealing with congress

and dealing with the kind of communications part of the mueller probe, and it's telling and it's worrisome. if you were a republican going into 2020, and going into the very tumultuous time, and in many ways the best days for the white house might be behind them. it's not likely there's going to be much in the way of legislation and there will be movement obviously on the judicial front and judges will be empaneled and those sorts of things but it looks like it will be more kayiochaos. >> and here's rex tillerson talking quite candidly. >> the president would say here's what i want to do and here's how i want to do it, and i would have to say to him, mr. president, i understand what you want to do but you can't do it that way. it violates the law.

>> that was -- >> among other things. >> details. >> a lot of people said why is rex tillerson speaking out? he was ready and he had a forum. do you think there's any other reason? >> he has been tight-lipped and this was an unvarnished look at a president that doubles down in a lot of the descriptions we have heard. with the people who work closest with him it does not breed respect and loyalty. the unvarnished truth is deeply unflattering. and friday was such a big news day, and normally that would be front page stuff. the president kept asking me to break the law. that's nuts. >> the president fired back with a tweet. he says mike pompeo is doing a great job, tillerson's replacement, and i am proud of him. rex tillerson did not have the

mental capacity needed, he's dumb as a rock and he was lazy as hell and now it's a whole new ball game. >> we know the secretary of state called the president a moron. >> yeah. >> this is the high level -- >> yeah. maybe they were in a book club. >> yeah. >> you want to weigh in on it, nia? >> yeah, this is where we are. i think there's more to come. you see him praising pompeo in that tweet and who knows how long that will last and he praised a lot of people and then turned against them. if you are thinking about going into the white house, all of this chaos and the pettiness of the white house is a reason to stay away as well as the idea that a lot of folks have gone in there, and typically you think of any jwhite house

administration job, you see them going in and then leaving with tarnished reputations. >> nia-malika henderson and john avlon, thank you very much. i have never seen a more amazing play in football -- >> neither have i. >> neither have i seen one that punched me in the gut quite this hard and then stomped on my head afterwards. the "bleacher report" is next. (burke) parking splat. and we covered it. talk to farmers. we know a thing or two because we've seen a thing or two. ♪ we are farmers. bum-pa-dum, bum-bum-bum-bum ♪ ♪ ♪

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heartburn and gas? ♪ fight both fast tums chewy bites with gas relief all in one relief of heartburn and gas ♪ ♪ tum tum tum tums tums chewy bites with gas relief we have a sports moment so stunning even i am excited about it. the dolphins shocked the patriots with an unbelievable

final play. andy scholes has more in our "bleacher report." wow. >> this was one of the best finishes to a game in nfl history. they are calling it the miami miracle, outside of new england, and they are calling it lateral damage. miami was down five with seven seconds left and they go with the hook and ladder play and they were going to give it to the running back and he will make a couple moves and get to the outside, and the only man left to beat was gronk who was on the field for a potential hail mary, and he gets in for t the miami miracle is keeping the dolphins' hopes alive. >> it sucked.

never been part of anything like that. feel like it's going to test our character, big time. >> yeah, it was a rough day for patriots' fans. john, thank you for tweeting, i'm okay, just wanted everybody to know. i was worried about you there for a second. did the tv make it out intact? is everything okay at home? >> i didn't want anybody to worry. i had to watch the play again -- >> you couldn't get your mind around what just happened. >> yeah. >> why was gronk out there? >> it was bad coaching. it was bad execution, and bad everything. >> the chances of that play working is less than 1%, and it just happened to your patriots. >> thank you, andy. i was aware of that. appreciate it. thank you for being with us. meanwhile, robert de niro making another special appearance as robert mueller on

saturday nig "saturday night live." here are your late night laughs. >> not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse. >> do you hear that, john? there's something in my closet. >> look, buddy, nothing in the closet. [ applause ] >> mr. mueller, people say you are the worst thing ever to happen to my dad? >> no, eric, getting elected president was the worst thing that ever happened to your dad. >> trump is now calling for an end to the mueller probe, which i have to admit, it's worth a shot. i mean, you don't want to go to jail and then find out you could have just called it off the whole time. >> that's how awful to work in the trump, by the way. kelly spent four years with the

marines and spent four tours in iraq and couldn't finish one tour with donald trump. >> when you put it that way. >> that was eric trump in bed, and eric and donny going to school reading bedtime stories. >> that was very entertaining. russians made contact with at least 14 trump campaign officials or associates. this has federal prosecutors implicate president trump in federal crimes, so what's next? t a lower rate, hilton is like... we're gonna match that rate and give you an extra 25% off. what would travel sites do if you found a better price? that's not my problem, it's your problem. get outta here! whoa, i really felt that performance. it's just acting, i'm really good at it. book at hilton.com and get the hilton price match guarantee. if you find a lower rate, we match it and give you 25% off that stay.

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kind of situation i want to walk into? >> announcer: this is "new day" with alisyn camerota and john berman. >> good morning, and welcome to your "new day." it isn't clear that the president, any president, has been in a situation like this before. president trump's own justice department says the president directed somebody who break the law and gives every indication he would be charged with a federal crime were he not president. the incoming chair of the house judicial committee calls these impeachable offenses, so the stakes this morning are bigger than what the president has seen. this is what we know. the mueller prosecutors say president trump instructed cohen to give hush money to two women, and he had a connection to the kremlin. we know